Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes

This story features AMP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMP

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday February 5 to Friday February 9, 2018
Total Upgrades: 21
Total Downgrades: 18
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 42.01%; Hold 41.22%; Sell 16.78%

The February reporting season in Australia has quite unexpectedly provided investors with a lot to think about. And we're only one week into the season.

Wall Street is correcting, pushing local equities into a whirlwind of day-to-day volatility. Against this background, stockbroking analysts seem busier than usual in issuing upgrades and downgrades for ASX-listed entities. Let's not forget the corporate results releases, which is why February carries the tag of reporting season.

For the week ending Friday, 9th February 2018, FNArena registered no less than 21 upgrades in broker recommendations and 18 downgrades. National Australia Bank was the sole recipient of two upgrades, while on the negative side, Carsales was downgraded three times following its interim report (only once to Sell), while AGL Energy's market update attracted two downgrades, as did James Hardie.

If investors draw from this the conclusion that local reporting season has been more of a mixed bag thus far, despite robust expectations, they are correct.

AMP also reported, and received one upgrade, as did Ardent Leisure (pre-release update,) Centuria Industrial REIT, Macquarie (update on guidance), Magellan Financial, Mirvac, NAB, Shopping Centres Australasia, Tabcorp and Village Roadshow (update).

But then Carsales reported too, as did AGL Energy, Amaysim (update), Ardent Leisure, Greencross (update), James Hardie, Medibank Private, Mirvac and Rhipe; and they were all downgraded.

In case you are somewhat confused, both Ardent Leisure and Mirvac were upgraded and downgraded post result/update.

In terms of price targets, both Speedcast International (new contract) and James Hardie (profit result) enjoyed a gain in double digit percentage, with things remaining rather benign otherwise. Average gains are noticeably larger than negative adjustments for the week.

Queensland based quarry operator Wagners and Viva Energy REIT took the largest hits (-7%), followed by AGL Energy and Tabcorp.

Positive revisions to earnings forecasts continue to be dominated by resources stocks but the week's number one position was reserved for renewable energy company Infigen Energy, with the real fireworks showing up on the negative side. Ardent Leisure, Alacer Gold and Independence Group all suffered dramatic falls in EPS estimates, while Class, Wesfarmers, Village Roadshow, Mineral Resources and CommBank saw analysts paring back expectations. In most cases, this reflects a negative re-adjustment post results release.

The local reporting season shifts up to a higher gear in the week ahead.

Upgrade

ARDENT LEISURE GROUP ((AAD)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Having stuck with a Sell rating for the past twelve months, Citi has now double-whammy upgraded to Buy. The immediate trigger that led to the change in view is because operating momentum for both Main Event and Theme Parks is improving.

In addition, point out the analysts, US tax cuts should also add to bottom line improvement. Target price jumps to $2.40 from $1.50.

Note: H1 core net profits are anticipated to come out as a loss of -$2.2m.

See also AAD downgrade.

AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/4/0

2017 results exceeded guidance.  As revenue growth and earnings improvement is constrained in the three divisions under review, Macquarie believes any divestments could create grounds for a positive surprise and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral.

The broker adjusts earnings per share estimates down by -7.8% in 2018 and -3.1% in 2019 to reflect changes to methodology. Target is raised to $5.65 from $5.50.

ANSELL LIMITED ((ANN)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 3/3/0

UBS reviews forecasts ahead of the first half result next week. The broker envisages some tailwinds are set to boost earnings over the short to medium term.

These include the persistence of robust industrial growth, raw material price deflation into the second half and a decline in the USD/EUR rate.

While the broker is cautious about the ability to generate consistent organic growth over the longer term, current conditions are too compelling to ignore and the rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target is raised to $26 from $21.

AUSTRALIAN UNITY OFFICE FUND ((AOF)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/0/0

First half results were slightly ahead of Credit Suisse and FY18 guidance has been reconfirmed. The broker observes a solid start to the year in leasing activity. Portfolio occupancy has increased to 94.4%.

The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is $2.46.

AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED ((AZJ)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/4/2

Credit Suisse upgrades to Neutral from Underperform because of the weakness in the share price since the announcement of the QCA draft UT5 decision. Target is raised $4.75 from $4.70.

In the coal segment, the broker forecasts FY18 earnings to increase by 12% because of several Pacific National coal haulage contracts being up for renewal and the recent rebounding coal prices.

Nevertheless, FY18 EBIT estimates are lowered by -3% because of a one-off impact to coal segment margins from the timing of revenue related to the cyclone in FY17.

BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED ((BSL)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Ord Minnett has upgraded to Accumulate from Hold with an increased price target to $16.30 from $16.00. The moves suggests we have missed a change in view since early November.

Glad that's been sorted now. Essentially, the broker believes the weakness in share price is not justified given the improving macro-economic background.

Interestingly, the analysts suggest market consensus forecasts are behind the curve and will need to be upgraded post the upcoming interim results release, scheduled for Feb 26.

CARSALES.COM LIMITED ((CAR)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 2/4/2

The first half results were largely in line, although the outlook for SK Encar probably disappointed lofty buy side expectations, UBS suspects.

UBS noted finance revenue was stronger and growth in Webmotors also accelerated. The broker downgraded the stock in December as the share price appeared to be factoring overly optimistic growth assumptions.

UBS views the issues with SK Encar as transient, although tapping Korea may take longer than anticipated. The broker returns the rating to Neutral from Sell and retains a $14 target.

See also CAR downgrade.

CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT ((CIP)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0

First half results were in line. The highlight for Morgans was increased occupancy following several leasing transactions which were undertaken.

Guidance is reiterated. As the security price has declined recently, total shareholder return has increased to over 10% and the broker upgrades to Add from Hold. Target is $2.59.

GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED ((GXY)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/2/1

Following the sell-off in lithium miners year to date and in light of Dec Q production reports, Morgan Stanley sees a window of opportunity.

The broker has eased its target on Galaxy to $3.50 from $3.70 but notes the stock price has fallen -35% from its January high. Despite funding headwinds for Sal da Vida and James Bay, this prompts an upgrade to Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

HANSEN TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED ((HSN)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Credit Suisse points out that last year's disappointing organic growth rate of 2% followed underlying growth of 10% the year prior. This year, also helped by Enoro, Hansen should be able to achieve growth inside management's targeted 4-8% range, predict the analysts.

Credit Suisse sees margin improvement in FY18, and has now lifted forecasts, and sees potentially more upside in case of upside margin surprise. Target price moves to $4.25 from $3.60.

Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral. The broker notes the shares are trading at a discount vis a vis peers. CS has a so-called 'blue sky' valuation of $5.50.

MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MFG)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0

First half results were broadly in line with Morgans. The broker acknowledges current market volatility poses a short-term risk but on a 12-month view upgrades to Add from Hold. Target is reduced to $28.30 from $29.10.

The company has announced two acquisitions that provide more capability in Australian equities and secure improved US distribution. The acquisitions are expected to be modestly accretive in the first year.

Airlie Funds Management and Frontier Partners Group have been acquired for a combined consideration of US$15m and 4.5m in shares.

MIRVAC GROUP ((MGR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/2

A larger second-half skew in the residential business has caused Mirvac's interim report to miss expectations. But management has stuck with FY18 EPS guidance of 15.3–15.6c, representing growth of 6–8%, on the back of a much stronger second-half residential result.

Following a general decline for the listed property sector, Ord Minnett finds Mirvac shares are "inexpensive". Target price has improved to $2.55.

Also, the analysts note there were 249 apartment sales in the first half, showing solid but nevertheless slowing demand. Upgrade to Buy from Hold.

See also MGR downgrade.

MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED ((MQG)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/3/1

Management has upgraded FY18 guidance to 10% profit growth. Morgans notes third quarter business trends were solid with exceptional capital raising levels in infrastructure and real assets.

The update reinforces reinforces the broker's view on the medium-term growth profile. Morgans acknowledges rising bond yields are a risk but remain countered by the sizeable opportunities, such as US government infrastructure spending plans.

Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold. Target is raised to $109.33 from $97.43.

NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED ((NAB)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett and Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 6/0/2

Ord Minnett saw a mixed first-quarter FY18 trading update, characterised by slightly weak revenue growth, much lower impairments than expected, plus a surprise improvement in NAB's capital position.

Key concerns the analysts had prior have now been allayed. NAB's tilt towards small business banking gives it leverage to improving business credit growth, surmise the analysts. This should insulate it from return on equity (ROE) pressures in retail banking among the peers.

Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold. Price target improves to $32 from $31. Short term estimates have been reduced, FY19 estimates went up.

First quarter cash earnings were ahead of Citi's estimates but this appears to be because of delays in recognising the restructuring provision.

The broker expects FY18 to be a messy year for the bank as it embarks on restructuring. Since the FY17 result the stock has underperformed and Citi now envisages sufficient value to upgrade to Buy from Neutral. Target is $32.25.

ST BARBARA LIMITED ((SBM)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/2/2

Having visited Gwalia, Macquarie sees the potential for a larger production expansion, post the one now underway, than the broker first thought. While the current project will be disruptive in the short to medium term, St Barbara is set to solidify its profitable extension 2km below the surface.

Upgrade to Outperform. Target rises to $4.40 from $3.80.

SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA PROPERTY GROUP ((SCP)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 0/4/1

Shopping Centres has lifted FY earnings guidance by 1.3% following its interim result which is a positive, Citi notes, but not unexpected. Net operating income growth remains reasonable, largely due to stock-specific factors. Organic growth could remain above-peer.

Acquisitions helped drive earnings but ongoing accretion from acquisitions is set to slow, Citi suggests. But on the basis of the recent price pullback, the broker upgrades to Neutral. Target rises to $2.14 from $2.11.

SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SHL)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Credit Suisse believes a pick-up in Australian diagnostic volumes creates an opportunity for the company to raise FY18 guidance at the first half results, due February 15.

The broker increases FY18 forecasts by 1.4% and upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target is raised to $24.00 from $21.40.

TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((TAH)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/1/0

First half net profit missed UBS estimates. This was explained by a miss in Sun Bets and wagering.

UBS reduces normalised earnings per share forecasts by -14% for FY18 and -7% for FY19, with the changes mainly driven by higher commissions and higher operating costs in wagering. The broker does not believe this is a systemic issue.

Given the -12% share price decline since January the broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is reduced to $5.20 from $5.60.

TRANSURBAN GROUP ((TCL)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Morgans believes, given the recent decline in the share price, value has emerged, with an estimated total return in excess of 10%. Hence, the broker upgrades to Add from Hold.

The main short-term risks include material increases in bond yields and overpaying for the 51% of WestConnex. First half results will be released on February 13. Target is reduced to $12.62 from $12.65.

VILLAGE ROADSHOW LIMITED ((VRL)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 0/2/1

Improving momentum in theme parks, a reduction in gearing and a drop in the share price has caused Citi to upgrade to Neutral from Sell.

The broker retains ongoing concerns about the cinema exhibition division which, combined with a reasonably full valuation, prevents it from being more bullish at this point.

Recent trading updates suggest Gold Coast theme parks may have finally hit an inflection point following the October 2016 Dreamworld incident. Target is reduced to $3.45 from $3.55.

Downgrade

ARDENT LEISURE GROUP ((AAD)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/1

The trading update signalled growth had accelerated for Main Event, yet guidance for a break-even result in theme parks and flat US dollar profits at Main Event were less than Ord Minnett was expecting.

EBITDA estimates are lowered by -8% in FY18 and by -9% in FY19. Rating is downgraded to Lighten from Hold. Target is reduced to $1.73 from $1.85.

See also AAD upgrade.

AGL ENERGY LIMITED ((AGL)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi and Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/2/1

First half net profit was below Citi's forecasts. The company lost -4% of its customers in Queensland and the broker estimates a -2-3% reduction in gross margins from increased competition.

Citi forecasts 2% growth in earnings per share from FY18 to FY23 and suspects domestic growth is becoming harder to obtain and organic options are at higher cost.

Rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral and the target reduced to $20.54 from $25.28.

Macquarie observes the tailwinds from electricity prices have faded and re-investment is somewhat uncertain as the market is rapidly changing in terms of its technology while retail competition is heightened.

The broker considers the risk remains to the downside as AGL is more exposed than its peers to political risk. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $24.05 from $25.40.

AMAYSIM AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((AYS)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/0

The company's update has revealed a rapid deterioration in average revenue per unit because of ongoing competition and the recent introduction of $10-20 price points for unlimited plans.

Macquarie observes this has a material negative impact on near-term earnings but the extent will be largely determined by future re-negotiations of the wholesale agreement.

The broker finds it difficult to support the valuation until the extent of the re-basing is clearer. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is lowered to $1.95 from $2.35.

CARSALES.COM LIMITED ((CAR)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi and Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/4/2

Carsales has abruptly fallen out of favour at Citi following an interim report that, according to the analysts, shows a maturing core business in Australia, with margins under pressure.

Citi has downgraded to Sell, reduced estimates by -4-9% and cut its price target by -17% to $12.50. Domestic revenue growth is slowing and this makes the current PE multiple a challenge, find the analysts.

Macquarie found the first half results positive and broadly in line as the core business has driven robust revenue growth. The broker expects a continuation of this growth, primarily driven by price rises in the dealer channel.

Yet, given the absence of upgrade drivers relative to pre-result earnings forecasts, the broker envisages limited near-term valuation upside. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target reduced to $14.00 from $14.20.

First half net profit grew 12% but was behind Ord Minnett estimates. With volumes in the core business slowing, the broker believes the company now needs to be increasingly innovative in its search for growth as it awaits the maturing of its overseas businesses.

The broker considers the stock fully valued and downgrades to Hold from Buy. Target drops to $14.15 from $14.39.

See also CAR upgrade.

GPT ((GPT)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/1

UBS believes, as 50% of assets are allocated to retail, the portfolio is likely to deliver the largest decline in retail income growth in the second half and in 2018.

The office portfolio remains robust but, given the expected decline in retail, the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to $5.20 from $5.30.

GREENCROSS LIMITED ((GXL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 0/4/0

The company has provided a strong trading update and announced a new CEO. The net profit guidance was $2m ahead of what UBS had estimated, driven by solid top-line sales.

The broker notes the new CEO, Simon Hickey, does not have a traditional retail background but relevant experience in lift in consumer loyalty and cross selling.

The broker believes medium-term risks are building and cuts its long-term store roll-out and margin profile, resulting in a downgrade to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to $6.15 from $7.00.

HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED ((HVN)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/1/3

Credit Suisse makes minor changes to forecasts, upgrading sales revenue for Slovenia and Asia.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral because of an increase in the share price. Target is raised to $4.03 from $3.91.

JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V. ((JHX)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse and Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/2/0

December quarter net profit was ahead of expectations as margins surprised on the upside. Credit Suisse suspects FY18 results will be ahead of guidance, based on forecasts for 5.2% sales growth in North America.

The broker believes the company is well positioned for an acceleration in US housing activity. However, the elevated valuation and limited potential upside to consensus earnings expectations results in a downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $24.75 from $20.70.

The company's December quarter net profit was ahead of Ord Minnett's expectations. Cost are back on track but the broker believes primary demand growth must return in the coming quarters to justify relative valuation.

Given the recent strong performance Ord Minnett downgrades to Lighten from Hold and raises the target to $21.25 from $20.10.

MIRVAC GROUP ((MGR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/2

UBS believes negative news on house prices will start to affect the company, driven by a fall in foreign buyers and capped lending to interest-only buyers. Brisbane apartment settlements have also peaked.

Traditional areas which surprise on the upside are likely to remain muted until the FY18 result, in the broker's opinion. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to $2.32 from $2.52.

See also MGR upgrade.

MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED ((MPL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/5/2

Macquarie expects private health insurance will remain a key funding source for healthcare expenditure in Australia, despite the heightened political debate.

Nevertheless, the potential margin risk and minimal upside to the target results in a downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. Target is $3.46.

The broker also retains the view that ongoing structural change is required for the system to manage the underlying growth in claims.

NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NHF)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/4/3

Macquarie expects private health insurance will remain a key funding source for healthcare expenditure in Australia, despite the heightened political debate.

Nevertheless, the potential margin risk and minimal upside to the target results in a downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. Target is $6.90.

The broker also retains the view that ongoing structural change is required for the system to manage the underlying growth in claims.

PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED ((PMV)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Value appears less attractive to Credit Suisse after the strong appreciation in the share price. The broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.

Target raised to $15.28 from $14.91 because of an increase in the market value of the company's holding in Breville.

RHIPE LIMITED ((RHP)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Rhipe posted a strong result ahead of Morgans' forecast. FY guidance is within comfortable reach. An acceleration in licensing revenue and tight cost control were the highlights.

The company now has a strong balance sheet, supporting a maiden interim dividend of 0.5c. But given the stock has rallied 150% in the six months since its FY17 result, Morgans has pulled its rating back to Hold. Target rises to $1.04 from 82c.

TPG TELECOM LIMITED ((TPM)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/3/3

UBS values the company's NBN bypass option – the means outside the NBN to provide fixed broadband services – at around $250m. Despite this addition to valuation, following the recent run-up on the stock price, the rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral.

The broker emphasises this is not suggesting the mobile foray will fail. However, the roll out is not without risk and, at the current share price, the risk/reward pay-off is insufficient, in the broker's opinion. Target is raised to $6.00 from $5.50.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms