ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED (ORG)
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ORG

ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Infrastructure & Utilities
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Utilities
Debt/EBITDA: 2.38
Index: ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Origin Energy is an Australian natural gas and exploration company. It was formed in 2000 as a result of a de-merger from Boral. The company has a large exploration portfolio in Australia and is a major shareholder in the Australia Pacific LNG joint venture.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$12.91

26 Aug
2025

-0.050

OPEN

$13.00

-0.39%

HIGH

$13.04

5,068,976

LOW

$12.89

TARGET
$11.968 -7.3% downside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
AGL . AIA . ALX . APA . CEN . DBI . DBI . GNE . GNP . MEZ . SRJ . TCL .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
ORG: 1
Title FY24
Actual		 FY25
Actual		 FY26
Forecast		 FY27
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 86.2 65.5 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 60.0 60.9 xxx
EPS Growth xxx 6.3% - 24.0% xxx
DPS Growth xxx - 91.2% 1.4% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 19.9 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 4.7% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 69.6% 92.9% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 9.45%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 4.61

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 05/09 - ex-div 27.50c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 202020212022202320242025
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx86.2
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx60.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx17,118.0 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx578.1
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,054.0 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8.65 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 202020212022202320242025
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.26 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx10.78 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7.15 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.26 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx11.13 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-1,338.0 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 202020212022202320242025
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx76 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4,766 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4,842 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,106 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,015 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.87

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 202020212022202320242025
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,473.0 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8.60 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx14,916 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx665 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7,986 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.2

No. Of Recommendations

5
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
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Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgan Stanley

15/08/2025

5

Underweight

$9.80

-24.09%

Morgan Stanley notes Origin Energy's FY25 EBITDA of $3.41bn missed its forecast by -1% but was in line with consensus.

Final dividend of 30c met the broker's forecast but was marginally higher than 29.5c consensus.

The FY26 guidance for energy market EBITDA of $1.4-1.7b was broadly in line with the broker's estimate of $1.589bn and the $1.524bn consensus. Capex guidance was also in line.

Underweight. Target price $9.80. Industry View: In-Line.

FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.10 cents and EPS of 67.70 cents.

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Citi

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Jarden

18/08/2025

3

Neutral

$11.70

-9.37%

Jarden assessed Origin Energy's FY25 result to be broadly in line and therefore thinks the strong share price reaction was a bit overdone.

Underlying EBITDA was in line with the broker's forecast and the consensus, though underlying net profit was 4% ahead of the broker's forecast and 1% ahead of the consensus.

FY26 EBITDA guidance for energy markets was $1.4-1.7bn which was $300m higher than initial guidance for FY25, but -3% below the broker's estimate. APLNG guidance was unchanged vs July update, and Octopus' performance was below the broker's forecast.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 6.5% and FY27 by 7.4% on higher energy market EBITDA and lower forecast depreciation.

Neutral. Target price $11.70.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 75.90 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

ORG STOCK CHART

FNArena News on ORG

1
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 25, 2025

Aug 25 2025 - Daily Market Reports
2
In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 22-08-25

Aug 22 2025 - Weekly Reports
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Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 20, 2025

Aug 20 2025 - Daily Market Reports
4
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 18, 2025

Aug 18 2025 - Daily Market Reports
5
Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 15-08-25

Aug 18 2025 - Weekly Reports

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