MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED (MFG)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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21/08/2025

5

Underweight

$7.65

-29.04%

Magellan Financial notes Magellan Financial's FY25 earnings beat expectations on stronger distribution income and associates but excluding these, it was in line with its forecast and -7% lower than consensus.

The changing business mix has resulted in management defining group operating net profit as inclusive of associates.

The broker notes these come from a narrow base of investments and a lower multiple is justified, while core funds management earnings are shrinking -15-20% annually.

Overall, underlying earnings forecasts lifted by 2% for FY26-27 on higher associate profits. FUM forecast pushed up on recent $700m institutional mandate while DPS forecasts increased by 30-50% across FY26-28 on revised policy.

Underweight. Target rises to $7.65 from $7.40. Industry View: In-Line.

FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.30 cents and EPS of 75.40 cents.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 55.50 cents and EPS of 69.40 cents.

09/07/2025

4

Underweight

$8.85

-17.90%

Jarden retains a cautious stance on Magellan Financial post the departure of Infrastructure portfolio manager Gerard Stacks, despite a stabilisation of retail fund outflows in June and no institutional redemptions.

Commentary suggests Stacks' departure could prompt institutional outflows with a reassessment of the fund’s ratings.

Jarden lifts EPS forecasts by 1.9% for FY25 and 0.5% for FY26.

Underweight maintained. Target cut to $8.85 from $8.90.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 40.20 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.