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Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes

Weekly Reports | Oct 09 2017

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday October 2 to Friday October 6, 2017
Total Upgrades: 2
Total Downgrades: 6
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 42.23%; Hold 41.49%; Sell 16.28%

The week ending Friday, 6th October 2017 offered a little bit of positive news from the stockbroking community for the Australian share market. All upgrades for individual stocks went to Buy and only two downgrades sank to a Sell. But that's pretty much where the positive news ends.

FNArena registered only two upgrades for the week and six downgrades, including one for ANZ Bank ahead of the upcoming banks reporting season.

There was not much happening in terms of changes to consensus price targets, but those who did enjoy a positive change mostly enjoyed one that counts. Beach Energy's target went up by 7%, Spotless enjoyed a gain of 6% and South32 came third with a plus of 1%.

There was more to register on the negative side with targets for Kathmandu and APN Outdoor sliding by -7% and -6% respectively, followed by smaller target cuts for Scentre Group, Orica and a few others.

The table for positive revisions to earnings estimates is pretty much an all-resources affair; Mt Gibson Mining on top, followed by Karoon Gas, Whitehaven Coal, and others.

The table for negative revisions to earnings estimates is more diversified. Beadell Resources suffered the largest reduction for the week, followed by APN Outdoor, QBE Insurance and ERM Power, then Syrah Resources.

Reductions are on average larger than upward amendments.

On Thursday, Bank of Queensland will kick off the local banking reporting season.

Upgrade

APN OUTDOOR GROUP LIMITED ((APO)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/1/0

The company has lost the Yarra Trams contract. The annualised reduction to operating earnings is expected to be around -$7m.

UBS reduces 2018-19 forecasts for earnings per share by -9%. Having previously downgraded the stock to Neutral on rising margin/re-contracting headwinds and digital yield concerns, now, even factoring these in, the stock appears inexpensive.

Rating is upgraded to Buy and the target reduced to $4.75 from $5.25.

LEND LEASE CORPORATION LIMITED ((LLC)) Upgrade to Underweight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Morgan Stanley increases its weighting towards capital-light developers with better growth by upgrading Lend Lease to Overweight from Underweight.

The stock is the broker's preferred development exposure with its low gearing, large pipeline and expanding funds platform.

Target is raised to $19.75 from $16.45. Industry view is Cautious.

Downgrade

THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED ((A2M)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Synlait Milk ((SM1)) has received CFDA registration for a2 Milk's infant formula and a strong move in the share price of both stocks has resulted in Deutsche Bank revising estimates.

A material near-term earnings upgrade is made on the back of stronger a2 Milk volumes. Nevertheless, the broker now finds value is harder to obtain and downgrades to Hold from Buy. Target is raised to NZ$7.00 from NZ$5.80.

ALTURA MINING LIMITED ((AJM)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/0/1

Macquarie updates its development scenario for the Pilgangoora project.

The company has secured sufficient debt to bring the project into production. Nevertheless, the increased level of debt increases the risk associated with ramp up in case of any delay in achieving specifications could create a funding gap.

The broker believes, while the company may need to extend current debt facilities by at least a year to cover cash shortages, the expansion potential offers upside. Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target rises to $0.20 from $0.16.

AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP ((ANZ)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/5/0

Morgan Stanley has reduced confidence in the bank's ability to recover revenue and considers its loan loss versus normalised loss rates greater than its peers.

While the broker believes company-specific problems have passed, the estimate of risk tendency confirms the bank still has the highest risk profile of the majors.

Rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target is reduced to $29 from $30. Sector view is In-Line.

LIFEHEALTHCARE GROUP LIMITED ((LHC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 0/1/0

UBS downgrades the stock to Neutral from Buy ahead of an expected announcement of -10-15% reductions to the prosthesis list prices.

The company's exposure to prosthesis is around 35% of revenue. At this stage the broker does not adjust the earnings outlook as it lacks clarity on the magnitude and timing of the cuts. Target is reduced to $2.30 from $2.75.

SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 3/5/0

UBS believes the stock has run too hard for now and aluminium/alumina, metallurgical coal and manganese remain vulnerable to the correction seen in copper and iron ore.

The broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is raised to $3.25 from $3.00.

The stock is appreciated for its cash balance sheet and 20% free cash flow yield at spot prices but UBS would have liked to see more cash returns to shareholders, and remains concerns about operations at Illawarra and Cannington.

SYNLAIT MILK LIMITED ((SM1)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Deutsche Bank .B/H/S: 0/1/2

Synlait has received CFDA registration for a2 Milk's ((A2M)) infant formula and a strong move in the share price of both stocks has resulted in Deutsche Bank revising estimates.

A material near-term earnings upgrade is made for Synlait on the back of stronger a2 Milk volumes. Nevertheless, the broker now finds value is harder to obtain and downgrades to Sell from Hold. Target is raised to NZ$6.00 from NZ$5.80.

Total Recommendations
Recommendation Changes

Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

 

Order Company New Rating Old Rating Broker
Upgrade
1 APN OUTDOOR GROUP LIMITED Buy Neutral UBS
2 LEND LEASE CORPORATION LIMITED Buy Buy Morgan Stanley
Downgrade
3 ALTURA MINING LIMITED Sell Neutral Macquarie
4 AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP Neutral Buy Morgan Stanley
5 LIFEHEALTHCARE GROUP LIMITED Neutral Buy UBS
6 SOUTH32 LIMITED Neutral Buy UBS
7 SYNLAIT MILK LIMITED Sell Neutral Deutsche Bank
8 THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED Neutral Buy Deutsche Bank

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Rating Previous Rating Change Recs
1 APO APN OUTDOOR GROUP LIMITED 80.0% 60.0% 20.0% 5
2 BPT BEACH ENERGY LIMITED 33.0% 17.0% 16.0% 6
3 SCG SCENTRE GROUP 50.0% 42.0% 8.0% 7

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Rating Previous Rating Change Recs
1 SM1 SYNLAIT MILK LIMITED -67.0% -33.0% -34.0% 3
2 A2M THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED 60.0% 80.0% -20.0% 5
3 KMD KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED 50.0% 67.0% -17.0% 4
4 SPO SPOTLESS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED -67.0% -50.0% -17.0% 3
5 ANZ AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP 31.0% 44.0% -13.0% 8
6 ORI ORICA LIMITED -25.0% -13.0% -12.0% 8
7 S32 SOUTH32 LIMITED 38.0% 50.0% -12.0% 8

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs
1 BPT BEACH ENERGY LIMITED 0.795 0.743 7.00% 6
2 SPO SPOTLESS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED 1.043 0.980 6.43% 3
3 S32 SOUTH32 LIMITED 3.148 3.116 1.03% 8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs
1 KMD KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED 2.335 2.520 -7.34% 4
2 APO APN OUTDOOR GROUP LIMITED 5.286 5.672 -6.81% 5
3 SCG SCENTRE GROUP 4.474 4.510 -0.80% 7
4 ORI ORICA LIMITED 17.463 17.594 -0.74% 8
5 ANZ AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP 30.675 30.800 -0.41% 8

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs
1 MGX MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED 1.350 0.350 285.71% 3
2 KAR KAROON GAS AUSTRALIA LIMITED -7.000 -13.400 47.76% 3
3 WHC WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED 37.980 35.980 5.56% 8
4 BPT BEACH ENERGY LIMITED 7.480 7.097 5.40% 6
5 A2M THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED 19.584 18.861 3.83% 5
6 IVC INVOCARE LIMITED 58.538 56.663 3.31% 7
7 S32 SOUTH32 LIMITED 22.720 22.065 2.97% 8
8 BHP BHP BILLITON LIMITED 172.097 168.240 2.29% 8
9 ORE OROCOBRE LIMITED 15.353 15.020 2.22% 6
10 MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED 120.783 119.283 1.26% 6

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs
1 BDR BEADELL RESOURCES LIMITED -0.633 -0.300 -111.00% 3
2 APO APN OUTDOOR GROUP LIMITED 33.658 83.825 -59.85% 5
3 QBE QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED 35.626 71.606 -50.25% 8
4 EPW ERM POWER LIMITED 5.100 6.100 -16.39% 3
5 SYR SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED -9.690 -8.690 -11.51% 5
6 WSA WESTERN AREAS NL 4.373 4.801 -8.91% 7
7 ORG ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED 48.231 51.606 -6.54% 7
8 TNE TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED 14.333 15.033 -4.66% 3
9 NST NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD 40.403 41.737 -3.20% 6
10 NCM NEWCREST MINING LIMITED 80.216 82.387 -2.64% 8

Technical limitations

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CHARTS

A2M AJM ANZ APO LHC LLC S32 SM1