KMD BRANDS LIMITED (KMD)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

24/09/2026

1

Buy

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FY26 underlying earnings (EBITDA) for KMD Brands (July year-end) more than doubled to NZ$42m, supported by 11% Kathmandu sales growth, improved gross margins and NZ$8m of tariff refunds, UBS explains.

Higher operating costs prompt UBS to cut its FY27–FY29 earnings forecasts by -20%–29%.

The broker forecasts FY27 earnings of NZ$54m, near the top of the NZ$52m–NZ$55m guidance range but expects limited operating leverage.

It is felt the balance sheet has been de-risked following the equity raising. The company has received several preliminary takeover approaches.

UBS lowers its target to NZ$2.55 from NZ$3.50 and retains its Buy rating, mainly on valuation grounds.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.15 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 6.66 cents and EPS of 21.63 cents.

28/09/2026

3

Neutral

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Jarden maintains a Neutral rating for KMD Brands with its target price increased to NZ$2.10 from NZ$2.05 following an FY26 result featuring sales of NZ$1,053m and underlying EBITDA of NZ$42.0m.

The earnings result came in ahead of Jarden's estimates of NZ$38.7m, supported by a 120-basis point gross margin expansion to 57.7% alongside continued cost discipline.

Commentary states the Kathmandu brand performed strongly with sales up 11.1% and EBITDA improving to NZ$16.1m from a NZ$1.3m loss, while Rip Curl EBITDA increased 12% to NZ$34.4m and Oboz returned to positive earnings.

Jarden observes early FY27 trading remains constructive with management guiding to sales between NZ$1,055m and NZ$1,075m and underlying EBITDA of NZ$52m to NZ$55m, driven by further expected gross margin expansion and annualised cost-saving initiatives.

While acknowledging significant scope for earnings improvement, Jarden sees a balanced risk-reward profile given execution risks and successive failures to deliver against previous targets.