OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Shaw and Partners rates C79 as Buy

Chrysos has now fallen -20% since its March Q late-April update and is -35% below its recent peak, notes Shaw and Partners.
Investors seem torn between recent positive longer-term signals (eg Barrick global partnership) and non-delivery versus FY24 targets.

While the lowered FY24 target is frustrating it does not change the broker's view of company’s longer-term potential. Broadening its contracted base will now be a positive catalyst for the stock and Shaw understands is a key management priority.

While contracting new units will be the key catalyst for the stock, the broker highlights that its forecast 18 deployed units in FY25 has
nearly 90% visibility, while Chrysos' runway of opportunity is far from mature.

Buy and $7.50 target retained.

Bell Potter rates LTR as Buy

Bell Potter attended a 25 person investor visit to Liontown Resources at the Kathleen Valley lithium project last week.

Management highlighted the pathways to improving commissioning, the ramp up and lower operational risks, with first production forecast by mid-2024.

Around 160kt of ore is stockpiled with circa 300kt anticipated to be available by start up and the open pit mine is aiming for 3Mt of ore by the end of 2025.

The offtake agreements with Ford, KG Energy Solutions and Tesla are meaningful with Bell Potter forecasting the Ford debt to be repaid from future cash flow and a drawdown of the $550m debt package.

Spectulative Buy rating and $1.85 target unchanged.

Citi rates WBC as Sell

Following a further review of yesterday's 1H result for Westpac, Citi retains its Sell rating on valuation but raises the target to $24.75 from $22.25. Despite the rating, it's felt Westpac could have peer-leading core earnings and capital management trends.

The core net interest margin (NIM), excluding volatile items has been stable for six months, well ahead of peers, notes the analyst. It's felt lending growth is on a structural growth path in the attractive mortgage and SME segment as time-to-decision has been slashed.

The investment spend of $736m was materially below management’s guidance of $1.8bn for the year, suggesting to the broker a lull between the CORE program concluding and the Unite program ramping-up.

A summary of the analysts initial view of the result follows:

Judging from Citi's initial response, Westpac's interim result beat the broker's forecast by 0.5%, with bad and doubtful debts slightly better-than-anticipated.

Core earnings equally surprised slightly, on better cost control, but were in line with market consensus, on the broker's assessment.

Investment spend is materially below what management had indicated earlier, so a big catch-up needs to happen in H2, highlight the analysts.

Core NIM should be well-received, says the broker, as it looks better than peers. Westpac has announced an extension of the share buyback by $1bn, a dividend of 75c plus a special divvie of 15c on top.