Australian Broker Call

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July 06, 2021

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CRN - Coronado Global Resources Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
CVN - Carnarvon Petroleum Upgrade to Buy from Hold Ord Minnett
IPL - Incitec Pivot Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
OSH - Oil Search Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
SYD - Sydney Airport Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
TAH - Tabcorp Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
AGL  AGL ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $8.08

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett believes M&A could be the catalyst for equity performance and remains positive on most stocks in the Energy and Utilities sector. It's felt compelling valuations could prompt corporate activity across the sector, with a number of assets up for sale. 

All energy stocks the broker covers are trading below estimated valuation. 

Ord Minnett lowers the price target for AGL Energy to $8.60 from $8.80 and the Hold rating is maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $8.08 Difference: $0.52
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.35, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.4, implying annual growth of -46.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 77.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of -32.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AIA  AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $7.07

UBS rates AIA as Sell (5) -

UBS believes the proposed bid for Sydney Airport ((SYD)) has limited implications for Auckland International. There are material differences in shareholder ownership restrictions between the two.

The broker expects operating earnings for Auckland Airport will return to pre-pandemic levels by FY24. At this stage there is no suggestion of a change in dividend policy. Sell maintained. Price target is NZ$6.65.

Current Price is $7.07. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $6.80, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 50.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 281.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 106.5.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALG  ARDENT LEISURE GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $0.98

Citi rates ALG as Buy (1) -

Citi reviews Main Event's trading performance amid indications this has continued to accelerate since the trading update on May 17.

The broker suspects the cash flow being generated may positively affect how much cash Ardent Leisure can receive should Red Bird exercise its option for an additional 27% stake in Main Event.

Buy rating and $1.30 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.32
If ALG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.70.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.65.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANZ  AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $28.09

Morgans rates ANZ as Add (1) -

Morgans expects stable asset quality, better-than-consensus net interest margins and a focus on absolute cost reduction to be supportive of sector return on tangible equity (ROTE). Consequently sector multiples are expected to be supported over the forecast period.

The broker continues to see capital management potential for each of the major banks. ANZ Bank is the analysts' preferred major bank on a valuation basis. The Add rating and $34.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $28.09 Difference: $6.41
If ANZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.17, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 145.00 cents and EPS of 221.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.0, implying annual growth of 62.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 163.00 cents and EPS of 251.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 219.5, implying annual growth of 7.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 145.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APE  EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $15.68

Morgans rates APE as Add (1) -

After the release of total retail sales in May, Morgans highlights that for the first time covid-beneficiary categories shift into negative year-on-year growth (and vice versa), which should be widely expected. Online penetration sat at 9.1%, versus the peak of 11.1%.

While cautious on the sector in the short term, the broker believes the next 3-6 months could throw up some attractive opportunities in quality retailers. This may be true should the market harshly treat earnings, stepping down from unsustainable peaks year-on-year. 

Morgans is comfortable with retail exposure via the Automobiles sub-sector and Eagers Automotive. The Add rating and $17.39 price target are retained.

Target price is $17.39 Current Price is $15.68 Difference: $1.71
If APE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.92, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 103.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.6, implying annual growth of 60.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 86.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.6, implying annual growth of -14.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $48.45

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes capital allocation has been focused on shareholder returns since the introduction of a new EPS-based dividend policy in 2016.

Around 70% of cumulative leveraged operating cash flow has been allocated to shareholder returns post maintenance capital during FY16-20.

Consequently, the broker assesses the portfolio will deliver modest volume growth with FY20-25 copper equivalent growth of around 1%.

Target is $50.95. Overweight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $50.95 Current Price is $48.45 Difference: $2.5
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.54, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 208.61 cents and EPS of 456.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 460.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 360.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 464.03 cents and EPS of 581.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 533.8, implying annual growth of 15.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 396.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT  BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $1.27

Morgans rates BPT as Add (1) -

It's surprising to Morgans that Oil and Gas equities have materially underperformed, given the improvement in supply-demand fundamentals, and the steady rise of oil prices. One explanation is considered to be the surge in ESG concerns.

Additionally, the broker notes market pessimism on oil prices holding current levels, and company specific factors as several have looming major capex or recent operational issues.

After upgrading short and medium term oil price forecasts, Morgans lifts the target price for Beach Petroleum to $1.86 from $1.82. The broker believes the sell-off post the Cooper Basin downgrade appears overdone. 

Target price is $1.86 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.59
If BPT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of -33.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 27.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes M&A could be the catalyst for equity performance and remains positive on most stocks in the Energy and Utilities sector. It's felt compelling valuations could prompt corporate activity across the sector, with a number of assets up for sale. 

All energy stocks the broker covers are trading below estimated valuation. 

Of the large-cap stocks, Ord Minnett has a preference for Beach Energy because of its strong balance sheet and leverage to east coast gas prices. The Buy rating and $1.75 target price are unchanged.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.48
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of -33.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 27.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA  COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks

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Overnight Price: $99.18

Morgans rates CBA as Reduce (5) -

Morgans expects stable asset quality, better-than-consensus net interest margins and a focus on absolute cost reduction to be supportive of sector return on tangible equity (ROTE). Consequently sector multiples are expected to be supported over the forecast period.

The broker continues to see capital management potential for each of the major banks. Commonwealth Bank of Australia is considered the least preferred on valuation grounds.

While the bank's underlying ROTE is superior to its peers, the price/net tangible assets multiple is stretched in light of its underlying ROTE. The target price is raised to $76 from $73 and the Reduce rating is maintained.

Target price is $76.00 Current Price is $99.18 Difference: minus $23.18 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $88.75, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 355.00 cents and EPS of 505.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 476.0, implying annual growth of -12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 343.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 417.00 cents and EPS of 555.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 519.2, implying annual growth of 9.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 389.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGC  COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $3.22

Credit Suisse rates CGC as Outperform (1) -

Avocado pricing has fallen well below Credit Suisse forecasts, to $14.87 per 10kg tray. The broker was expecting the possibility of under $20/tray, given a large crop in Western Australia, but this breaks the charts. Therefore production assumptions are lowered.

Pricing in 2021 has no bearing on the following years, in the broker's view, so there are no changes to future forecasts and prices are expected to recover.

Outperform rating and $4.15 target are unchanged.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.22 Difference: $0.93
If CGC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.09, suggesting upside of 24.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.60 cents and EPS of 13.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of 3.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 17.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of 21.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE  COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $0.26

Morgans rates COE as Add (1) -

It's surprising to Morgans that Oil and Gas equities have materially underperformed, given the improvement in supply-demand fundamentals, and the steady rise of oil prices. One explanation is considered to be the surge in ESG concerns.

Additionally, the broker notes market pessimism on oil prices holding current levels, and company specific factors as several have looming major capex or recent operational issues.

After upgrading short and medium term oil price forecasts, Morgans notes a minimal impact on Cooper Energy, given the majority of earnings are derived from fixed price gas sales. The Add rating and $0.36 target are maintained.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.1
If COE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.37, suggesting upside of 42.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 260.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates COE as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes M&A could be the catalyst for equity performance and remains positive on most stocks in the Energy and Utilities sector. It's felt compelling valuations could prompt corporate activity across the sector, with a number of assets up for sale. 

All energy stocks the broker covers are trading below estimated valuation. 

Of the small-cap stocks, Ord Minnett has a preference for Cooper Energy, because of its strong balance sheet and attractive valuation. The Buy rating and $0.46 price target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.2
If COE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.37, suggesting upside of 42.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN  CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC

Coal

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Overnight Price: $0.90

Morgans rates CRN as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

After updating views post the company's capital structure re-set, Morgans' valuation rises to $1.06 from $1. Coronado Global Resources' leverage to sharply higher coking coal prices is estimated to offset equity dilution.

The company refinanced debt and raised capital for balance sheet repair. The analyst notes global coking coal prices have move sharply and unexpectedly upward.

The broker upgrades the rating to Add from Hold, noting the company suits sophisticated investors with a high risk tolerance.

Target price is $1.06 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.16
If CRN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.15, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 35.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRW  CASHREWARDS LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment

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Overnight Price: $1.10

Ord Minnett rates CRW as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses a major win for Cashrewards after an agreement to launch the “Cashrewards Max” offering with ANZ Bank’s ((ANZ)) 4.7m consumer card holders.

To give perspective, the broker highlights the company has circa 275k active members currently. The company has a stated ambition to add “close to half a million” active members through the Cashrewards Max offering alone by “early FY23”.

The analyst awaits to see what can be made of this partnership, starting with member acquisition, which can then drive further merchant acquisition (network effect). The Buy rating and $2.10 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $1
If CRW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 24.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.55.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 24.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.55.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CVN  CARNARVON PETROLEUM LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $0.28

Ord Minnett rates CVN as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett believes M&A could be the catalyst for equity performance and remains positive on most stocks in the Energy and Utilities sector. It's felt compelling valuations could prompt corporate activity across the sector, with a number of assets up for sale. 

All energy stocks the broker covers are trading below estimated valuation. The rating for Carnarvon Petroleum is raised to Buy from Hold based on valuation and the target price lifts to $0.35 from $0.33.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.07
If CVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWN  CROWN RESORTS LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $11.72

Macquarie rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie is guiding to underlying earnings for Crown Resorts for FY21 of $248m, accounting for the impacts of recent lockdowns in both Melbourne and Perth. This places Macquarie's forecast at the higher end of Crown's guidance of $240-250m. 

The broker also expects revenue from Crown's domestic business in Melbourne and Perth to be trading above pre-covid levels by FY23, but does predict a lag on underlying earnings driven by higher costs and reduced VIP volumes.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $12.40 from $12.90.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $11.72 Difference: $0.68
If CWN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.42, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 104.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HDN  HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $1.50

Macquarie rates HDN as No Rating (-1) -

HomeCo Daily Needs has announced a $70m equity raise to fund the acquisition of Town Centre Victoria Point for $160m. The equity raise is for $1.45 per unit, implying a 5.8% premium to Macquarie's pro-forma net tangible asset estimate of $1.37 per unit. 

According to HomeCo Daily Needs, the acquisition would be immediately accretive to funds from operations per share. The REIT expects gearing to increase to around 35%.

Given research restrictions Macquarie has No Rating and has provided no target price.

Current Price is $1.50. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.51, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.20 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of 112.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates HDN as Buy (1) -

HomeCo announced a $70m placement to partly fund the acquisition of $160m Town Centre in Queensland. Ord Minnett forecasts the raising at $1.45 and acquisition to be slightly accretive to FY22 funds from operations (FFO) and neutral to net tangible assets (NTA).

The Buy recommendation is maintained, with transactional evidence highlighting potential NTA upside for the REIT, believes the broker. The target price rises to $1.52 from $1.45 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $1.52 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.02
If HDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.51, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.20 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.10 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of 112.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG  INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $5.06

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Insurance Australia Group has confirmed aggregate reinsurance cover for FY22 has been renewed with identical coverage to FY21. Morgan Stanley notes the company is yet to comment on the pricing of the renewal or the additional stop-loss cover.

More details are expected at the August 11 result. The broker believes the company needs to increase its catastrophe budget to $770m in FY22 (from $658m in FY21).

Equal-weight. Target is $4.80. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.06 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 101.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of -20.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.7, implying annual growth of 85.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPL  INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $2.41

Credit Suisse rates IPL as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Fertiliser prices remain strong, supporting the outlook for Incitec Pivot. The steepening cost curve in Europe is also beneficial, the broker suggests, given the company's US gas cost base for ammonia and fixed gas and sulphur cost base for phosphates in Australia.

The broker expects tightness to remain for the remainder of 2021 and makes earnings upgrades that are split evenly between phosphates and ammonia.

There are also increasing signs that fertiliser prices have reached a level where demand is being reduced so there are limited opportunities for further increases even on material volume.

Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and raises the target to $3.02 from $2.51.

Target price is $3.02 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $0.61
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.98, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.08 cents and EPS of 19.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of 96.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.21 cents and EPS of 23.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of 33.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR  KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $1.41

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

It's surprising to Morgans that Oil and Gas equities have materially underperformed, given the improvement in supply-demand fundamentals, and the steady rise of oil prices. One explanation is considered to be the surge in ESG concerns.

Additionally, the broker notes market pessimism on oil prices holding current levels, and company specific factors as several have looming major capex or recent operational issues.

After upgrading short and medium term oil price forecasts, Morgans lifts the target for Karoon Energy to $2.10 from $1.90. The company is considered the most sensitive to increases in oil price assumptions, given it is a low-cost pure conventional oil producer. Add rating.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $0.69
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of 98.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LLC  LENDLEASE GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $11.07

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers last week's profit warning and review of the profit recognition strategy was the first part of the new CEO's reset. 

Lendlease has also re-prioritised 23 urbanisation projects and announced plans to divest more non-core businesses. The broker suggests this situation will result in short-term volatility but a successful cost reduction program could be the remedy.

Equal-weight rating and $13 target. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.07 Difference: $1.93
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.23, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 27.30 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 32.90 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.4, implying annual growth of 27.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV  LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Luxury

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Overnight Price: $15.56

Morgans rates LOV as Add (1) -

After the release of total retail sales in May, Morgans highlights that for the first time covid-beneficiary categories shift into negative year-on-year growth (and vice versa), which should be widely expected. Online penetration sat at 9.1%, versus the peak of 11.1%.

While cautious on the sector in the short term, the broker believes the next 3-6 months could throw up some attractive opportunities in quality retailers. This may be true, especially should the market harshly treat earnings, stepping down from unsustainable peaks year-on-year. 

Morgans is comfortable with retail exposure via the likes of Lovisa Holdings. Although it's considered Australian lockdowns will impact in the short term, the northern hemisphere should have emerged with solid momentum.

The broker is hoping for a strong store rollout to recommence in FY22. The Add rating and $17.95 price target are retained.

Target price is $17.95 Current Price is $15.56 Difference: $2.39
If LOV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.44, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 67.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.2, implying annual growth of 129.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of 64.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB  NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $26.15

Morgans rates NAB as Hold (3) -

Morgans expects stable asset quality, better-than-consensus net interest margins and a focus on absolute cost reduction to be supportive of sector return on tangible equity (ROTE). Consequently sector multiples are expected to be supported over the forecast period.

The broker continues to see capital management potential for each of the major banks. The analysts would not be surprised if National Australia Bank waits for its AUSTRAC issue to be resolved before embarking on capital management.

The Hold rating and $27.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $26.15 Difference: $1.35
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.33, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 129.00 cents and EPS of 207.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.7, implying annual growth of 135.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 131.00 cents and EPS of 201.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 191.1, implying annual growth of -1.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 130.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates NAB as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett's research partners surveyed 100 small businesses in Australia to better understand their decision process and attitudes towards their merchant acquirers and banking partners.

Merchants selected reliability, price, and fast clearing and settlement as the three most important attributes in their provider.

The broker sees evidence that small business banking is less commoditised than retail banking. The reasons are considered to include company's long relationships with their main bank, and only two thirds consider lending interest rates to be the most important factor when choosing a bank. 

The analyst points out National Australia Bank should see resilient returns on equity (ROE) in its SME banking operations. It has the greatest exposure to SMEs of peers, with business banking accounting for more than 40% of earnings. Hold and $27.50 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $26.15 Difference: $1.35
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.33, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 189.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.7, implying annual growth of 135.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 134.00 cents and EPS of 183.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 191.1, implying annual growth of -1.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 130.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $25.66

Macquarie rates NCM as Outperform (1) -

Newcrest Mining's Cadia project has suffered from another localised seismic event, but the company has reported limited damage.

A prohibition notice has been issued for the affected area, but Macquarie notes production and development activities have been allowed to continue and does not predict any impact on FY22 production.

Modest damage has been reported to roadways and ground support near the junction of two extraction drives, as well as minor damage to a ventilation rise. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $31.00 are retained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $25.66 Difference: $5.34
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.12, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 42.79 cents and EPS of 171.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 186.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.06 cents and EPS of 112.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 175.1, implying annual growth of -6.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $4.61

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes M&A could be the catalyst for equity performance and remains positive on most stocks in the Energy and Utilities sector. It's felt compelling valuations could prompt corporate activity across the sector, with a number of assets up for sale. 

All energy stocks the broker covers are trading below estimated valuation. 

Of the large-cap stocks, Ord Minnett has a preference for Origin Energy because of its strong free cash flow. The Buy rating is maintained and the target slips to $5.45 from $5.75.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: $0.84
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.02, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.7, implying annual growth of 317.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.9, implying annual growth of 36.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSH  OIL SEARCH LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $3.90

Morgans rates OSH as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

It's surprising to Morgans that Oil and Gas equities have materially underperformed, given the improvement in supply-demand fundamentals, and the steady rise of oil prices. One explanation is considered to be the surge in ESG concerns.

Additionally, the broker notes market pessimism on oil prices holding current levels, and company specific factors as several have looming major capex or recent operational issues.

After upgrading short and medium term oil price forecasts, Morgans upgrades the rating to Add from Hold for Oil Search after recent share price weakness. It's considered the most sensitive of the large-caps to changes in the oil price. Target $4.70.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.8
If OSH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.48, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.29 cents and EPS of 18.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.97 cents and EPS of 30.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 29.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates OSH as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes M&A could be the catalyst for equity performance and remains positive on most stocks in the Energy and Utilities sector. It's felt compelling valuations could prompt corporate activity across the sector, with a number of assets up for sale. 

All energy stocks the broker covers are trading below estimated valuation. 

Of the large-cap stocks, Ord Minnett has a preference for Oil Search, due to its growth and corporate appeal. The Buy rating is unchanged. The target price is increased to $5.60 from $5.35.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $1.7
If OSH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.48, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.69 cents and EPS of 13.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.36 cents and EPS of 22.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 29.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PWR  PETER WARREN AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS LIMITED

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Overnight Price: $3.59

Morgans rates PWR as Add (1) -

After the release of total retail sales in May, Morgans highlights that for the first time covid-beneficiary categories shift into negative year-on-year growth (and vice versa), which should be widely expected. Online penetration sat at 9.1%, versus the peak of 11.1%.

While cautious on the sector in the short term, the broker believes the next 3-6 months could throw up some attractive opportunities in quality retailers. This will be so, especially should the market harshly treat earnings, stepping down from unsustainable peaks year-on-year. 

Morgans is comfortable with retail exposure via the Automobiles sub-sector and Peter Warren Automotive Holdings. The Add rating and $4.05 price target are retained.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $0.46
If PWR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.96.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.61.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGP  STOCKLAND

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $4.61

Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Stockland has confirmed it is in discussions to acquire land lease operator Halcyon. While an agreement has not been reached on the acquisition, Macquarie reports that pricing on Halcyon is expected to be around $625m, with the company's rental stream valued at around $175m. 

Macquarie notes that Stockland has been discussing an entrance into the land lease market for a number of years and that the move could be a key growth sector for Stockland. The acquisition of Halcyon could allow Stockland to expediate scale and profit from an existing brand presence, the broker suggests.

The Neutral rating and target price of $4.67 are retained.

Target price is $4.67 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: $0.06
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 25.10 cents and EPS of 28.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.90 cents and EPS of 31.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of 6.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $7.27

Morgans rates STO as Add (1) -

It's surprising to Morgans that Oil and Gas equities have materially underperformed, given the improvement in supply-demand fundamentals, and the steady rise of oil prices. One explanation is considered to be the surge in ESG concerns.

Additionally, the broker notes market pessimism on oil prices holding current levels, and company specific factors as several have looming major capex or recent operational issues.

After upgrading short and medium term oil price forecasts, the top large-cap pick for Morgans remains Santos. The analyst notes that in the short term, earnings growth from rising oil prices will be partly offset by hedging losses. The target rises to $8.70 from $8.50. Add rating.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $7.27 Difference: $1.43
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.22 cents and EPS of 42.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.38 cents and EPS of 50.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.9, implying annual growth of 11.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates STO as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett believes M&A could be the catalyst for equity performance and remains positive on most stocks in the Energy and Utilities sector. It's felt compelling valuations could prompt corporate activity across the sector, with a number of assets up for sale. 

All energy stocks the broker covers are trading below estimated valuation. 

Ord Minnett maintains the Accumulate rating for Santos and lifts the target price to $8.10 from $7.95.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.27 Difference: $0.83
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.72 cents and EPS of 50.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.38 cents and EPS of 62.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.9, implying annual growth of 11.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUL  SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $12.78

Morgans rates SUL as Hold (3) -

After the release of total retail sales in May, Morgans highlights that for the first time covid-beneficiary categories shift into negative year-on-year growth (and vice versa), which should be widely expected. Online penetration sat at 9.1%, versus the peak of 11.1%.

While cautious on the sector in the short term, the broker believes the next 3-6 months could throw up some attractive opportunities in quality retailers. This may be true, especially should the market harshly treat earnings, stepping down from unsustainable peaks year-on-year. 

Morgans is comfortable with retail exposure via the likes of Super Retail Group. It's felt the group could post resilient sales within its sport and leisure businesses and the analyst is optimistic around the group’s future store footprint potential. Hold and $12.83 target retained.

Target price is $12.83 Current Price is $12.78 Difference: $0.05
If SUL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.54, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 87.00 cents and EPS of 130.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.8, implying annual growth of 132.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.7, implying annual growth of -31.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SXY  SENEX ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $3.50

Morgans rates SXY as Add (1) -

It's surprising to Morgans that Oil and Gas equities have materially underperformed, given the improvement in supply-demand fundamentals, and the steady rise of oil prices. One explanation is considered to be the surge in ESG concerns.

Additionally, the broker notes market pessimism on oil prices holding current levels, and company specific factors as several have looming major capex or recent operational issues.

After upgrading short and medium term oil price forecasts, Morgans lifts the target for Senex Energy to $4.50 from $4.20. The Add rating is maintained. The analyst expects the upcoming quarterly result to set the company on-track to the top end of earnings guidance. 

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $1
If SXY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 39.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.9, implying annual growth of 130.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SXY as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes M&A could be the catalyst for equity performance and remains positive on most stocks in the Energy and Utilities sector. It's felt compelling valuations could prompt corporate activity across the sector, with a number of assets up for sale. 

All energy stocks the broker covers are trading below estimated valuation. 

Of the small-cap stocks, Ord Minnett has a preference for Senex Energy, due to its growth and exposure to east coast gas prices. The Buy rating is unchanged and the broker's target rises to $4 from $3.90.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $0.5
If SXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.84, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.9, implying annual growth of 130.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYD  SYDNEY AIRPORT

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $7.78

Citi rates SYD as Neutral (3) -

Sydney Airport has received an indicative and non-binding bid from a consortium of infrastructure investors. The price is $8.25 cash and subject to a range of conditions. The board is evaluating the proposal.

Citi highlights, since the onset of the pandemic, there are indications of a wider-than-usual discount is being used to price listed infrastructure assets, particularly airports, compared with infrastructure assets held in unlisted vehicles.

The broker assesses this proposal reflects the discount but suspects it will also provide a base to value listed airports.

Citi believes a unique asset such as Sydney Airport is likely to appeal to a range of infrastructure bidders and therefore there is potential for others to get involved in the process.

Neutral rating and $6.61 target are unchanged.

Target price is $6.61 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: minus $1.17 (current price is over target).
If SYD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of minus 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 77.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 3.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 235.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 83.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates SYD as Neutral (3) -

A consortium made up of IFM Investors, QSuper and Global Infrastructure Partners has made a non-binding bid for Sydney Airport, offering $8.25 per share and implying an equity value of around $22bn and an enterprise value of around $30bn. 

The offer is contingent on UniSuper bringing its 15.3% stake into the consortium. Macquarie notes that given ownership limitations IFM, which already owns stakes in Brisbane and Melbourne airports, would be limited to a 15% interest in Sydney Airport unless it divests its interests at other airports. 

 The offer represents around 26.3 times FY21 underlying earnings, and Macquarie highlights this is well above listed peers. The broker expects a response from Sydney Airport in coming weeks. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $8.50 from $6.04 to capture a premium on the initial offer. 

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: $0.72
If SYD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 338.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 102.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 83.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates SYD as Overweight (1) -

Sydney Airport has received a non-binding proposal at $8.25 a share from a consortium of infrastructure funds and is evaluating the proposal. Conditions include satisfactory due diligence, reinvestment by the largest shareholder, Unisuper, and regulatory approvals.

Morgan Stanley's bull case valuation of the stock is $8.88, based on a faster aviation recovery that allows favourable returns on investment and a benign rates environment, but does not contemplate a control premium or corporate activity.

Overweight with a price target of $6.66. Industry View: Cautious.

Target price is $6.66 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: minus $1.12 (current price is over target).
If SYD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 77.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 77.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 83.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates SYD as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans feels there is a strong likelihood the takeover bid from a consortium of unlisted infrastructure funds will proceed. The rating is lowered to Hold from Add and the target price is raised to the bid price of $8.25 from $7.03.

In predicting whether another bidder could emerge, the broker notes significant dry powder sitting in infrastructure funds globally looking for investment opportunities.

The analyst feels the bid price is sufficiently attractive to entice investors, when compared to an uncertain wait for the distribution to recommence and international traffic to recover.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: $0.47
If SYD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 112.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 83.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SYD as Hold (3) -

At first glance, Ord Minnett assesses the $8.25 bid from a consortium of infrastructure investors for Sydney Airport appears to be fair. Management has not rejected the offer and has commenced an assessment of the proposal.

The broker believes competing bids cannot be ruled out, especially given the appeal of long-duration infrastructure assets. The Hold rating is maintained and Morgans target price is lifted to $8.25 from $5.70.

The offer price is 45% above the analyst's discounted cash flow (DCF) and multiples-based valuation.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: $0.47
If SYD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.08, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 778.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 129.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 83.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TAH  TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $4.97

Credit Suisse rates TAH as Outperform (1) -

Tabcorp will spin out its lottery and keno business by June 2022 while retaining wagering and gaming in the original entity. The de-merger announcement was expected but reflects higher one-off and ongoing costs compared to what Credit Suisse had expected.

The company also indicated it would prefer more certainty and value in the proposals from both Apollo and Entain for the wagering and/or gaming business.

By making this statement, the broker believes the company is adding uncertainty, as shareholders may now bear the risk of how the market values the wagering and media division over the next 12 months.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $5.60 from $5.70.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $0.63
If TAH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.19, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 17.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 10.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates TAH as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

The company has announced an intention to demerge its Lotteries & Keno business. The demerger will create two ASX-listed companies in Lotteries & KenoCo and Wagering & GamingCo. The latter will comprise Wagering & Media and Gaming Services business units.

Morgans believes the demerger has the potential to unlock the value inherent in the high quality Lotteries and Keno business and upgrades to an Add rating from Hold. The target price is also lifted to $5.66 from $5.11.

The analyst notes proposals received for Wagering and Media and Gaming Services should continue to provide near-term valuation support for Wagering & GamingCo.

Target price is $5.66 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $0.69
If TAH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.19, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 10.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates TAH as Hold (3) -

In-line with Ord Minnett's expectations, Tabcorp Holdings has decided to spin off its lotteries and keno business into a separately listed ASX company, following a strategic review. 

The broker had previously highlighted the complex nature of the regulatory processes and extended timelines associated with any sale of the company’s wagering and media operations.

The June 2022 demerger completion timeline is conservative, in the analyst's view, and longer than the average demerger (circa 275 days) based on historical analysis. The Hold rating and $4.20 target are maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.19, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 10.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TRJ  TRAJAN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

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Overnight Price: $2.40

Ord Minnett rates TRJ as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Trajan Group Holdings with a $2.35 price target and a HOLD recommendation, following a 41% price return since listing in June 2021. Full deployment of IPO proceeds will shifts the analyst's price target to $2.59.

The company is a developer, manufacturer, and partner in the analytical market. The broker considers it has an entrenched global blue-chip customer base operating in well-structured, stable industries.

The base portfolio of precision analytical consumables and automation solutions is benefiting from mid-single digit growth, driven by a confluence of mega trends, explains the analyst.

The company has grown to $72m in revenue (FY20), funded by internally generated cashflow. Organic growth strategies and disciplined acquisitions have bolstered a portfolio offering and provided a global platform, highlights Ord Minnett.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If TRJ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 600.00.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.55.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TYR  TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $3.79

Ord Minnett rates TYR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's research partners surveyed 100 small businesses in Australia to better understand their decision process and attitudes towards their merchant acquirers and banking partners.

Merchants selected reliability, price, and fast clearing and settlement as the three most important attributes in their provider. The broker discerns positive takeaways for Tyro Payments in the payments segment, as these attributes have all played to its advantage in the past.

Separately, the analyst assesses a solid finish to FY21 for the company, with a trading update in-line with the broker’s forecast, albeit hampered by covid-19 lockdowns over June. The Buy rating and $4.50 target are unchanged.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $0.71
If TYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.01, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 189.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 379.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UNI  UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $7.18

Morgans rates UNI as Add (1) -

After the release of total retail sales in May, Morgans highlights that for the first time covid-beneficiary categories shift into negative year-on-year growth (and vice versa), which should be widely expected. Online penetration sat at 9.1%, versus the peak of 11.1%.

While cautious on the sector in the short term, the broker believes the next 3-6 months could throw up some attractive opportunities in quality retailers. This may be especially true should the market harshly treat earnings, stepping down from unsustainable peaks year-on-year.

Morgans is comfortable with retail exposure via the likes of Universal Store Holdings. Although considered to be impacted by lockdown timing around school holidays and escrow coming up in August, the broker likes the medium-long-term growth story.

The analyst thinks the company could be one of the few to positively cycle a strong base during FY22. The Add rating and $8.37 target are retained.

Target price is $8.37 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: $1.19
If UNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.95.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.96.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WAF  WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $1.05

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

West African Resources has wrapped up the second quarter of FY21, 2% ahead of Macquarie's expectations, largely driven by a strong performance at the M1S underground mine. 

The M1S mine produced volume that was 48% higher than estimated by the broker, and grade 26% higher than estimated. Performance at the underground mine will play a large part in the company reaching Macquarie's near-term targets.

Elsewhere, production at Sanbrado totaled 63,600 ounces for the quarter, a 14% quarter-on-quarter increase and 2% above Macquarie forecasts. The broker notes a mill reline was completed during the period. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.15.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.1
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.91.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.91.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC  WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks

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Overnight Price: $25.53

Morgans rates WBC as Add (1) -

Morgans expects stable asset quality, better-than-consensus net interest margins and a focus on absolute cost reduction to be supportive of sector return on tangible equity (ROTE). Consequently sector multiples are expected to be supported over the forecast period.

The broker continues to see capital management potential for each of the major banks, and Westpac Bank's dividend payout ratio guidance of around 60-65% over the medium term is considered conservative. 

Morgans believes the bank offers the most compelling value of the major banks along with ANZ Bank ((ANZ)). The Add rating and $29.50 target are retained.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $25.53 Difference: $3.97
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.49, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 115.00 cents and EPS of 184.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 173.9, implying annual growth of 172.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 130.00 cents and EPS of 200.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 179.5, implying annual growth of 3.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 125.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOR  WORLEY LIMITED

Energy Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $11.71

Ord Minnett rates WOR as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett believes M&A could be the catalyst for equity performance and remains positive on most stocks in the Energy and Utilities sector. It's felt compelling valuations could prompt corporate activity across the sector, with a number of assets up for sale. 

All energy stocks the broker covers are trading below estimated valuation. 

Ord Minnett maintains the Hold rating for Worley and lifts the target price to $10.70 from $10.40.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $11.71 Difference: minus $1.01 (current price is over target).
If WOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.34, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.3, implying annual growth of 31.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.7, implying annual growth of 44.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL  WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $23.60

Morgans rates WPL as Add (1) -

It's surprising to Morgans that Oil and Gas equities have materially underperformed, given the improvement in supply-demand fundamentals, and the steady rise of oil prices. One explanation is considered to be the surge in ESG concerns.

Additionally, the broker notes market pessimism on oil prices holding current levels, and company specific factors as several have looming major capex or recent operational issues.

After upgrading short and medium term oil price forecasts, Morgans raises the target price for Woodside Petroleum to $29.90 from $28.80. The Add rating is maintained, regardless of the uncertainties around selection of a new CEO, asset sales and dilution risk. 

Target price is $29.90 Current Price is $23.60 Difference: $6.3
If WPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.80, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 106.58 cents and EPS of 213.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 190.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 90.40 cents and EPS of 180.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 162.4, implying annual growth of -14.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates WPL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes M&A could be the catalyst for equity performance and remains positive on most stocks in the Energy and Utilities sector. It's felt compelling valuations could prompt corporate activity across the sector, with a number of assets up for sale. 

All energy stocks the broker covers are trading below estimated valuation. 

Ord Minnett maintains the Buy rating for Woodside Petroleum and lifts the target price to $29.10 from $28.30.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $29.10 Current Price is $23.60 Difference: $5.5
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.80, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 141.75 cents and EPS of 179.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 190.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 169.83 cents and EPS of 213.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 162.4, implying annual growth of -14.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AGL AGL Energy $8.11 Ord Minnett 8.60 8.80 -2.27%
AMP AMP $1.10 UBS 1.20 1.17 2.56%
BHP BHP Group $48.92 Morgan Stanley 50.95 50.70 0.49%
BPT Beach Energy $1.30 Morgans 1.86 1.82 2.20%
CBA CommBank $98.77 Morgans 76.00 73.00 4.11%
CRN Coronado Global Resources $0.92 Morgans 1.06 0.90 17.78%
CVN Carnarvon Petroleum $0.28 Ord Minnett 0.35 0.28 25.00%
CWN Crown Resorts $11.53 Macquarie 12.40 12.90 -3.88%
HDN HomeCo Daily Needs REIT $1.45 Macquarie N/A 1.40 -100.00%
Ord Minnett 1.52 1.45 4.83%
IPL Incitec Pivot $2.46 Credit Suisse 3.02 2.51 20.32%
KAR Karoon Energy $1.45 Morgans 2.10 1.90 10.53%
MFG Magellan Financial $53.80 UBS 53.65 49.50 8.38%
NHF NIB $6.46 UBS 6.50 6.35 2.36%
ORG Origin Energy $4.64 Ord Minnett 5.45 5.75 -5.22%
OSH Oil Search $4.09 Morgans 4.70 4.40 6.82%
Ord Minnett 5.60 5.35 4.67%
STO Santos $7.32 Morgans 8.70 8.50 2.35%
Ord Minnett 8.10 7.95 1.89%
SUN Suncorp Group $11.18 UBS 12.15 12.00 1.25%
SXY Senex Energy $3.55 Morgans 4.50 4.20 7.14%
Ord Minnett 4.00 3.90 2.56%
SYD Sydney Airport $7.69 Macquarie 8.50 6.04 40.73%
Morgans 8.25 7.03 17.35%
Ord Minnett 8.25 5.70 44.74%
TAH Tabcorp $4.89 Credit Suisse 5.60 5.70 -1.75%
Morgans 5.66 5.11 10.76%
WAF West African Resources $1.05 Macquarie 1.15 1.10 4.55%
WOR Worley $11.59 Ord Minnett 10.70 10.40 2.88%
WPL Woodside Petroleum $24.05 Morgans 29.90 28.80 3.82%
Ord Minnett 29.10 28.30 2.83%
Summaries
AGL AGL Energy Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $8.08
AIA Auckland International Airport Sell - UBS Overnight Price $7.07
ALG Ardent Leisure Buy - Citi Overnight Price $0.98
ANZ ANZ Bank Add - Morgans Overnight Price $28.09
APE Eagers Automotive Add - Morgans Overnight Price $15.68
BHP BHP Group Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $48.45
BPT Beach Energy Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.27
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.27
CBA CommBank Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $99.18
CGC Costa Group Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.22
COE Cooper Energy Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.26
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.26
CRN Coronado Global Resources Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $0.90
CRW Cashrewards Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.10
CVN Carnarvon Petroleum Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.28
CWN Crown Resorts Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $11.72
HDN HomeCo Daily Needs REIT No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.50
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.50
IAG Insurance Australia Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.06
IPL Incitec Pivot Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.41
KAR Karoon Energy Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.41
LLC Lendlease Group Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $11.07
LOV Lovisa Add - Morgans Overnight Price $15.56
NAB National Australia Bank Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $26.15
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $26.15
NCM Newcrest Mining Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $25.66
ORG Origin Energy Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.61
OSH Oil Search Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.90
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.90
PWR Peter Warren Automotive Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.59
SGP Stockland Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.61
STO Santos Add - Morgans Overnight Price $7.27
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.27
SUL Super Retail Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $12.78
SXY Senex Energy Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.50
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.50
SYD Sydney Airport Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $7.78
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $7.78
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $7.78
Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $7.78
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.78
TAH Tabcorp Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.97
Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $4.97
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.97
TRJ Trajan Group Initiation of coverage with Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.40
TYR Tyro Payments Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.79
UNI Universal Store Add - Morgans Overnight Price $7.18
WAF West African Resources Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.05
WBC Westpac Banking Add - Morgans Overnight Price $25.53
WOR Worley Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $11.71
WPL Woodside Petroleum Add - Morgans Overnight Price $23.60
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $23.60
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

33

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

15

5. Sell

2

Tuesday 06 July 2021

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.