Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 05-02-21

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Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday February 1 to Friday February 5, 2021
Total Upgrades: 16
Total Downgrades: 13
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 51.08%; Hold 39.99%; Sell 8.93%

By Mark Woodruff

For the week ending Friday 5 February, there were sixteen upgrades and thirteen downgrades to ASX-listed companies by brokers in the FNArena database.

Deterra Royalties received two upgrades from Neutral to Buy from separate brokers, while Worley was on the receiving end of two downgrades to Neutral from Buy.

For Deterra Royalties UBS forecasts a 5% lift in world steel production in 2021, which drives a 3% lift in expectations for seaborne iron ore demand and a market likely to be in deficit.  Credit Suisse is also positive on future iron ore pricing and the company’s South Flank ramp up.

Understandably disappointed by a first half update by Worley (around -40% below consensus forecasts), UBS admits to underestimating the disruptive impact from the second wave of infections in the northern hemisphere. Likewise, Credit Suisse was surprised by the magnitude of deterioration in business conditions.

Worley, it will come as no surprise, was also atop the table for the largest percentage fall in target price for the week. Origin Energy was next after guidance for FY21 was lowered and headwinds facing the electricity sector do not appear to be weakening anytime soon.

On a positive note, the largest percentage increase in target price for the week went to IGO, after UBS concluded the acquisition of Tianqi's Australian lithium assets was a shrewd move. The broker now includes the acquisition of the 24.99% interest in the Greenbushes spodumene mine and 49% interest in the Kwinana lithium hydroxide plant in forecasts.

In the wake of a second quarter production and shipments update, Fortescue Metals also had a good week as brokers raised price targets. Credit Suisse lifted the target to $23.50 from $16.50, after becoming more bullish around iron ore pricing. In addition, the tailwinds of minimal debt, Eliwana ramping up to plan and a strong dividend outlook led the broker to upgrade the company rating to Outperform from Neutral.

Pinnacle Investment Management Group had the largest percentage earnings upgrades by brokers during the week. The group reported profit up 120% on the previous corresponding period, with significant performance fees the main driver. Forecast upgrades were largely driven by higher funds under management, increased second half net inflow assumptions and higher performance forecast fees in outer years.

Whitehaven Coal’s operating income forecasts for FY21-22 were upgraded by Credit Suisse during the week in the order of 29-41%. The broker upgraded internal near-term thermal coal price forecasts to incorporate higher demand from a La Niña-driven cold winter in the northern hemisphere.

Production generally exceeded broker forecasts in the December quarter for Sandfire Resources. According to Macquarie, copper prices are driving upside momentum. Ord Minnett also assesses potential upside to valuations for the Black Butte operation and/or T3 expansion.

Mineral Resources was another to receive a large percentage rise in earnings forecasts by brokers for the week. Macquarie raised the earnings outlook to reflect an increase in iron ore price realisations and a stronger volume in mining services.

Six of a possible seven brokers in the FNArena database reviewed earnings forecasts after a strong trading update from BlueScope Steel. The company also upwardly revised FY21 operating income guidance on the back of a stronger performance by all divisions.

There were some significant percentage declines in earnings estimates by brokers in the FNArena database last week. The two largest belonged to Karoon Energy and Cooper Energy. As mentioned last week, second quarter revenue was lower due to delayed shipments by Karoon Energy, while foaming at Cooper Energy’s Orbost operations is causing some hesitation among brokers.  

There was an earnings downgrade for Seven West Media at the hands of Credit Suisse, despite an upgrade to estimates to reflect its latest FY21 Metro TV ad market forecasts. However, the broker expects to see market declines of -2% for the first half.

Both Origin Energy and AGL Energy were also prominent in the table for percentage forecast earnings declines. The reasons for the former company’s woes are outlined above, while AGL Energy incurred a -$2.7bn post tax impairment charge at the first half results, due to the impact of lower long-term electricity prices.

Morgan Stanley lowered overall earnings and retained an Underweight rating for Galaxy Resources, after a December quarter report of production, shipments and costs. However, the broker raised the target price to $1.45 from $1.35 and upgraded forecast 2023 EPS after assuming a return to reserve Lithium Grade for mining Mt Cattlin.

Western Areas also had a rough week in terms of broker earnings forecasts. December quarter production revealed to Ord Minnett another difficult quarter for Forrestania, with reduced nickel volumes and increased costs because of lower grades and recoveries.

The broker also reduced remaining reserve estimates for Flying Fox by -15% and models a limited grade recovery at Spotted Quoll.

Finally, Worley pulled of an unenviable trifecta for the week. The company received a dual downgrade to rating, the largest percentage fall in target price and an appearance in the list for largest percentage downgrade to percentage earnings. Suffice to say, the explanation has been already mentioned above.

Total Buy recommendations take up 51.08% of the total, versus 39.99% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.93%.

Upgrade

ADBRI LIMITED ((ABC)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/5/2

Macquarie expects the momentum in housing will last a while and the longer-term concerns around the lack of immigration and the impact on sustainability are considered less pertinent in the current investment thesis.

Accommodating monetary and fiscal policies are being met by a focus on consumer homes like never before, the broker observes.

Macquarie upgrades to Neutral from Underperform as the improving market conditions offset ongoing structural risks for Adbri. Target is $3.05.

AMCOR LIMITED ((AMC)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 5/2/0

First half results beat UBS estimates. Earnings growth was supported organically along with the Bemis merger synergies and share buyback accretion. The positive trends have accelerated and Amcor has raised its FY21 constant currency growth guidance to 10-14%.

Nevertheless, UBS expects growth rates will moderate as synergies from the merger fade. The broker is attracted to the company's leading position across global consumer packaging markets and upgrades to Buy from Hold. Target is reduced to $16.60 from $16.66.

CSR LIMITED ((CSR)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Macquarie expects the momentum in housing will last a while and the longer-term concerns around the lack of immigration and the impact on sustainability are considered less pertinent in the current investment thesis.

Accommodating monetary and fiscal policies are being met by a focus on consumer homes like never before, the broker observes.

Macquarie has been surprised at the momentum in CSR but acknowledges the stock's exposure to the strength in the Australian cycle and upgrades to Outperform with a $6 target.

CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CTD)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 6/0/0

Ord Minnett observes stocks within the travel agency segment have declined materially since December, largely because of valuation concerns.

The broker now assesses valuations have become more reasonable and believes it is time to revisit those stocks that have strong fundamentals.

Corporate Travel fits the bill and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. Target is raised to $22.11 from $21.93.

DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED ((DRR)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse and Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/0/1

Since listing in October 2020, Deterra Royalties has underperformed the AUD iron ore price by circa -28% and is down almost -10% year to date.

Even so, the broker takes a constructive house view on iron ore pricing and the South Flank ramp up, upgrading its rating to Outperform from Neutral. Target price moves to $4.80 from $4.40.

UBS forecasts a 5% lift in world's steel production in 2021. This drives a 3% lift in expectations for seaborne iron ore demand and the market is likely to be in deficit, requiring high-cost supply to remain.

As a result, UBS lifts expectations for 2021 average iron ore prices to US$125/dmt and the long-term price to US$65/dmt. The broker upgrades the rating for Deterra Royalties to Buy from Neutral and raises the target to $5.15 from $5.00.

FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD ((FMG)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 4/2/1

Led by a more bullish view around iron ore pricing, Credit Suisse lifts its Fortescue Metals Group target to $23.50 from $16.50. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

With only US$0.1bn in net debt, Eliwana ramping up to plan along with a strong dividend outlook, the broker has enough reasons to justify the upgrade ahead of what is expected to be a strong result in February. 

GWA GROUP LIMITED ((GWA)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/0

Macquarie reviews housing data, noting approvals continue to strengthen and this will underpin strong growth into FY22. Home building approvals are the highest levels in 65 years.

Previously, Macquarie had expected a rebound in commercial was necessary for a further re-rating in the stock.

While forecasts for commercial business are conservative, commentary from the company indicates it is outperforming broader market numbers by targeting specific categories.

Macquarie upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and raises the target to $3.90 from $3.25.

HEALIUS LIMITED ((HLS)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 4/3/0

UBS resumes coverage after a short hiatus and upgrades to Buy from Sell. Target is raised to $4.40 from $2.70.

The broker is confident the company is better placed to benefit from favourable demand for diagnostic services and a more benign reimbursement environment.

The sale of the GP component within the medical centre division has significantly improved the capital structure, in the broker's view, and Healius is now in a position to increase the dividend pay-out and fund an on-market share buyback.

MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MFG)) Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/3/1

In a quarterly review of fund managers Macquarie notes value rotation, mixed flows and foreign exchange headwinds drove funds under management (FUM).

The broker doesn't believe valuations are stretched, with central bank policies support of equity markets, driving an overweight view on the sector.

Magellan Financial Group continues to impress the broker on flows, with a net inflow of $1.2bn for the December quarter.

Despite recent underperformance driven by value rotation and appreciation of the Australian dollar, high watermarks are in reach and therefore performance fees are expected in the second half.

The rating is upgraded to Outperform from Underperform and the target price lowered to $53 from $59.

THE STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED ((SGR)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Star Entertainment shares are at an attractive buying level, Ord Minnett assesses, given cost management, margin expansion and likely suspension of the Barangaroo licence of rival Crown Resorts ((CWN)).

The broker assumes the Barangaroo licence will be withheld temporarily, and notes FY21 expectations for Crown Resorts appear optimistic for a Melbourne recovery and a Sydney opening.

Ord Minnett notes the merger discussions between the two persist but considers this an unlikely tie-up at this stage, unless Crown's licence is revoked. Star Entertainment's rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target raised to $4.10 from $3.50.

SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LTD ((SIQ)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Ord Minnett considers the company's novated leasing and salary packaging a market leader in Australia. The rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold, as the broker changes its view on the outlook.

Anticipated challenges with novated yields and softness in novated volumes are no longer a key issue.

Ord Minnett suspects the yield story is moderating and volumes are currently improving. Target is raised to $7.70 from $6.80. The broker assesses the 2021 PE ratio of 12.6x signals an attractive entry point.

UNITED MALT GROUP LIMITED ((UMG)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Credit Suisse upgrades its rating on United Malt Group to Neutral from Underperform with the target falling to $4.18 from $4.23.

While expecting a below-market first-half update, the group will likely be an early beneficiary of a second-half re-opening, suggests the broker, led by a recovery in the on-premise channel.

Reducing its capital expenditure burden and increasing the returns on incremental capital will raise the company's attractiveness, adds Credit Suisse.

WEBJET LIMITED ((WEB)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Stocks within the travel agency segment have declined materially since early December, largely because of valuation concerns.

Ord Minnett believes valuations have returned to more reasonable levels and, as Webjet retains sound fundamentals, upgrades the rating to Buy from Hold.

The B2C business is expected to have benefited from the gradual opening of domestic borders in the first half. Target is raised to $5.65 from $5.52.

WESFARMERS LIMITED ((WES)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Macquarie believes 2021 is likely to see continued strength in consumer spending buoyed by high asset prices, high savings rates and improving confidence.

Consumer durable retailers are expected by the broker to remain beneficiaries of constrained travel and service consumption and consumers upgrading home appliances.

Low interest rates could spur a housing cycle helping to support such housing-exposed stocks like Wesfarmers.

Macquarie upgrades the company to Outperform, as it should benefit from increased housing turnover which spurs renovations. In addition, supply chain issues in the Kmart Group are considered to have improved significantly. Target price lifts to $60 from $49.70.

Other tailwinds listed by the analyst include low interest rates, recovering consumer sentiment, personal tax cuts, accumulated household savings, continued restrictions on travel and stronger housing momentum in 2021.

WORLEY LIMITED ((WOR)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Ord Minnett had become more cautious on Worley's prospects, as shown through the Lighten rating, and still was surprised by the company's profit warning yesterday.

The broker continues to see the near term outlook as challenged, but post the share price fall, has decided to upgrade to Hold from Lighten. The price target falls to $10.60 from $11.50 (last increased in December) on sharply reduced forecasts.

Ord Minnett reminds investors the company is suffering subdued conditions because of covid, and management had been communicating tough conditions since December last year. Staff numbers have now reduced a further -1,600 to 47,600.

See also WOR downgrade.

Downgrade

BHP GROUP ((BHP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Credit Suisse prefers Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group given there is more optimism surrounding iron ore in the broker's commodity deck and Rio has a higher earnings exposure to iron ore.

Looking at better supply/demand fundamentals, the broker raises its iron ore price forecasts by circa 45% over the next three years, driving material earnings upgrades with operating income forecasts for BHP lifting 25-40% over the next three years.

Credit Suisse downgrades its rating to Neutral from Outperform with the target rising to $42 from $40 target.

FIRSTWAVE CLOUD TECHNOLOGY LIMITED ((FCT)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Second quarter results for Firstwave Cloud Technology shows to Morgans continued sales progress, albeit at a slower rate than initially expected.

Growth in international annual recurring revenue (IARR) continues, and the broker expects things are largely on-track, despite slight delays from covid lock downs.

The Speculative Buy rating is reduced to a Hold following a share price re-rating, while the target price of $0.179 is unchanged.

MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED ((MQG)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Citi believes Macquarie Group remains an attractive story, offering longer term structural opportunities and competive advantage in real estate and green energy. However the rising A$ and a recent lack of commodity price volatility leave expectations looking stretched.

Further acquisitions are unlikley to fill the gap, the broker suggests, and Biden's planned reversal of the Trump tax cuts would create a material headwind. The broker thus downgrades to Sell from Neutral on valuation, dropping its target to $120 from $125.

OROCOBRE LIMITED ((ORE)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/4/2

Lithium carbonate production at Olaroz was 3,727t of lithium carbonate (LCE), up 58% from the previous quarter, and 4% above the December 2019 quarter.

The analyst highlights that with increased output (around 85% of nameplate) costs declined -9%.

Morgans retains a long-term price of US$10,500/t for LCE. The broker also shortens the projected period of weaker prices and lowers short-term costs to generate a valuation and target price of $5.15.

The rating is lowered to Hold from Add due to recent share price strength, and the target price is increased to $5.15 from $3.36.

ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED ((ORG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Citi believes both Origin Energy and AGL Energy have misread the electricity market, assuming a $75MWh price signal for investment. The broker assumes $60MWh long term and doubts the two utilities have sufficiently hedged their volumes in FY22-23.

Origin's risk mangement of its use of the benchmark Japan Korea Market index has disappointed the broker, noting JKM can be hedged beyond two years.

The company's profit warning leads Citi to cut its target to $4.76 from $6.61 and downgrade to Neutral from Buy.

POINTSBET HOLDINGS LTD ((PBH)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/2/0

PointsBet has impressed Ord Minnett, demonstrating its capabilities in the US. The broker assesses the Australian business had a "cracking" final quarter with turnover and net wins comfortably ahead of estimates.

Still, while continuing to expect longer-term goals will be achieved, Ord Minnett now considers the business is trading around fair value and downgrades to Hold from Buy. Target is raised to $15.70 from $12.80.

TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((TAH)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/5/0

Tabcorp Holdings has received a number of M&A proposals related to its wagering and media business.

Credit Suisse thinks of this as a near-term profit-taking opportunity. The broker believes the new board will be more willing to engage in corporate discussion but also thinks any transaction will likely be a lengthy process.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform, the target rising to $4.50 from $4.40.

TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/4/1

No surprise December wine exports to China were down -98% but Hong Kong sympathised, and exports increased 340%. Unfortunately that's a loss of -$170m of business for a gain of $31m, the broker notes.

Malaysia. Indonesia, Thailand and Canada also tried to help, but off low bases.

Net asset value provides a floor but China, covid and US restructuring remain as risks, the broker warns. Recent outperformance leads the broker to pull back to Equal-weight on Treasury Wine from Overweight. Target unchanged at $10.
 

UNITI GROUP LIMITED ((UWL)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Unity Group reported an impressive first-half operating cash flow of $26.6m, observes Ord Minnett, up 47% versus the second half of FY20 and beating the broker's expectations.

The broker highlights the beat was driven by strong cash flow conversion, rising momentum in the telco businesses and a buoyant 1-month contribution from OptiComm.

Evidence of better housing activity supports Ord Minnett's private fibre construction forecasts for FY21-22 and de-risks the execution risks around the OptiComm transaction.

Even so, Ord Minnett reduces its rating to Accumulate from Buy given the recent share price strength. Target rises to $2.06 from $1.95.

VOLPARA HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED ((VHT)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Volpara Health has acquired CRA Health, a breast cancer risk assessment platform based in the US. The acquisition has cost US$18m with a further US$4m payable upon a satisfactory performance and retention hurdles.

Ord Minnett is still looking for an acceleration in organic growth but expects the enhanced business generated by the acquisition should drive better growth in FY22.

As the cash balance has fallen, the impact on the valuation is to the downside and the broker downgrades to Lighten from Hold. Target is reduced $1.24 from $1.45.

WORLEY LIMITED ((WOR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS and Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/4/0

UBS was disappointed with the first half update. First half earnings are guided to be $200-210m, around -40% below consensus forecasts. Accelerating infection rates globally have meant further project deferrals albeit cancellations are limited.

The second half is expected to be better as economic circumstances post the pandemic improve and cost savings are realised.

UBS acknowledges it underestimated the disruptive impact of the second wave of infections in the northern hemisphere but still assumes a declining revenue outlook throughout FY22.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to $10.80 from $14.45.

Credit Suisse downgrades the company formerly known as WorleyParsons (take note Credit Suisse) to Neutral from Outperform. The rating drops to $9.20 from $11.70.

Worley's preliminary numbers are pointing towards aggregate revenue of $4.4-4.5bn, down -26% versus last year and -19% below Credit Suisse's previous forecast. The company expects operating income of $200-210m, down -44% and below the broker's estimate.

With covid impacting demand in its end markets, Worley decided to reduce its staff numbers to 47,600 by the end of December, leaving the broker surprised at the magnitude of the deterioration in business conditions.

Operating income forecasts for FY21 and FY22 have been reduced by -36% and -23%.

See also WOR upgrade.

WESTERN AREAS NL ((WSA)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform with a target of $2.50.

December quarter nickel production was below September quarter numbers, with the first half production equal to 41% of Western Areas' FY21 guidance.

Ore access was a major issue at the Flying Fox operation. Credit Suisse expects a reversion to more normalised extraction rates in the second half. Grade at the Spotted Quoll operation was also lower than targeted, expected to persist into the second half.

The company expects production to be at the lower end its guidance range with higher costs. 

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