AMCOR PLC (AMC)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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08/05/2026

1

Buy

$63.00

14.84%

Amcor reported March Q earnings per share in line with expectations, Ord Minnett notes, although weaker operating cash flow prompted management to lower full-year guidance for both earnings and cash flow.

Despite the guidance downgrade, the share price rose following the result, which in the broker's view reflects investor relief that the downgrade was not materially worse than feared.

With guidance now reset, Ord Minnett believes near-term expectations have been sufficiently cleared and valuation support is becoming more evident.

Reflecting lower near-term earnings expectations, the broker's target has been reduced to $63 from $66. Buy retained as current valuation levels appear attractive for patient investors.

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11/05/2026

2

Overweight

$75.90

38.35%

Jarden maintains an Overweight rating for Amcor and increases the target price to $75.90 from $75.00 following a third-quarter result matching market expectations.

Core earnings per share of US96.0c aligned with forecasts as volume declines across the Flexibles and Rigids divisions moderated to a -1.5% contraction.

The broker notes management lowered full-year free cash flow guidance to between US$1.5bn and US$1.6bn due to inventory retention, keeping financial leverage elevated in the near term.

Strong execution on merger integration continues to offset volume pressures, driving an increase in the full-year synergy target to US$270m.

To reflect the slower inventory unwind and minor volume adjustments, earnings per share forecasts are lowered to US400.2c from US402.2c in FY26, and to US432.9c from US437.3c in FY27.

One day earlier, Jarden responded as follows:

Jarden maintains an Overweight rating and a $75.00 target price for Amcor following a 3Q26 result in which core EPS of US96.0c landed broadly in line with expectations.

The broker notes management downgraded FY26 guidance for core EPS to US$3.98-US$4.03 (from US$4.00-US$4.15) and free cash flow to US$1,500m-US$1,600m (from US$1,800m-US$1,900m).

Volume weakness persisted in the Flexibles division with a -1.5% decline, while financial leverage lifted to 3.8x, prompting the broker to question the revised year-end leverage target of 3.4x-3.5x.

To help offset these headwinds, management lifted Berry M&A synergy targets by US$10m to US$270m and lowered the effective tax rate guidance to 16%-17%.

Higher corporate costs acted as a drag during the period, although lower-than-forecast depreciation and amortisation provided some structural support to the bottom line, the report points out.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 394.24 cents and EPS of 599.64 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 405.13 cents and EPS of 645.73 cents.