article 3 months old

Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes

Weekly Reports | Apr 15 2019

This story features BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOQ

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday April 8 to Friday April 12, 2019
Total Upgrades: 1
Total Downgrades: 9
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 41.86%; Hold 43.00%; Sell 15.14%

The local share market's dilemma was once again reflected in stockbroking analysts' activity during the week ending on Friday, 12th April 2019.

For the week, FNArena registered one single upgrade in recommendation for an ASX-listed stock; Senex Energy was lifted to Neutral/Hold. On the other side of the ledger, six recommendations were pulled back to Neutral/Hold, with three downgrades pulling back to Sell.

Among the fresh Sell ratings we find energy producer Santos, regional lender Bank of Queensland -post disappointing interim result release- and housing market-exposed portal owner Domain Holdings.

FNArena's daily monitoring is limited to eight major stockbrokerages in Australia, but still, these numbers can serve as an indication as to general sentiment and considerations among investors of all kinds and sizes. Is it worth chasing short term momentum or is it safer to start taking some exposure off the table?

Unsurprisingly, given the quiet period in between the February reporting season and quarterly production reports, AGMs and a pick up in out-of-season financial reporting that is cranking up overall activity from this week onwards, the table for positive revisions to valuations/price targets only contains a few names worthy to point out.

Kathmandu, Magellan Financial and Senex Energy all enjoyed increases between 2.6% and 6.5% during the week.

Their gains were matched by noteworthy decreases only for Asaleo Care (selling off operations) and Bank of Queensland (disappointing result), again signalling how quiet overall activity is within the present context.

There is slightly more happening with earnings forecasts where Automotive Holdings, Oil Search, Santos, ResMed, Graincorp and Estia Health have all been enjoying positive revisions, but with negative implications materialising for companies including Perseus Mining, Michael Hill, Senex Energy, Bank of Queensland, and Whitehaven Coal.

Maybe the busier calendar ahead might spur analysts into a higher level of activity?

Upgrade

SENEX ENERGY LIMITED ((SXY)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Ord Minnett adjusts oil price forecasts for the March quarter which leads to a lift in forecasts for the June quarter to US$70/bbl, and US$65/bbl for the remainder of 2019 and 2020.

The broker upgrades Senex Energy to Hold from Lighten based on valuation. Target is raised to $0.40 from $0.34.

Downgrade

BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((BAL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 0/3/0

The share price has appreciated 41% year-to-date, believe it or not, and Citi analysts counter it is time for a pause, hence why the downgrade to Neutral from Buy. The broker remains a supporter of the company and the chosen strategy.

Irrespective, Citi analysts acknowledge concerns around potential further delays in Bellamy’s SAMR registration remain (or are resurfacing, depending on one's view) while the new product formula essentially still needs to prove itself.

Target price increases 8% to $10.50 as Citi has now incorporated the new formula in its model. The analysts speculate China might be favouring local products, which increases the odds Bellamy's SAMR licensing is facing further delays.

BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/4/3

A difficult first half has led Bank of Queensland to reduce its interim dividend to $0.34 per share, representing a pay-out ratio of 82%. Ord Minnett envisages scope for the dividend to be cut again as, without this, the pay-out ratio would climb into the high 80% range, which appears unsustainable.

The broker still believes the stock is expensive versus peers, despite the decline in the share price. Target is lowered to $8.50 from $9.45 and the rating is downgraded to Lighten from Hold. While the major banks are not immune to revenue headwinds, greater diversification suggests they are better able to absorb the regulatory costs.

BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Credit Suisse models no near-term earnings impact from lower LNG spot prices but increases the target to $2.02 from $1.91 after upgrading its 2019 oil price forecasts and assigning some value for production upside.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform as the broker considers the run-up in the share price now more fully reflects the value. The broker likes the company's exposure to the east coast gas market and the growth potential.

BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED ((BSL)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 4/3/0

The recovery in steel prices at the beginning of 2019 has stalled, Morgan Stanley observes. The broker still envisages steel prices will support strong earnings and cash flow but in the short term are unlikely to trend higher.

The broker adjusts estimates for earnings (EBIT) across FY19 and FY20, raising by 3.4% and downgrading by -7.1% respectively. One event that may provide a positive catalyst is a formal announcement of a North Star expansion. The broker considers this highly likely to proceed as the returns are potentially attractive.

Rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight, and Morgan Stanley would look for steel price momentum to re-start before becoming a buyer again. Target is reduced to $17 from $18. Industry view: Cautious.

CSR LIMITED ((CSR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/4/2

Macquarie notes the US market is experiencing incremental improvement and low single-digit growth is considered the most likely outcome for housing starts in 2019. Home builders remain cautiously optimistic entering the spring selling season.

Meanwhile, Australian housing starts are estimated to fall to around 150,000 in 2020. The broker downgrades CSR to Neutral from Outperform as the rally in the stock has rebalanced the risk/reward. Target is $3.45.

DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((DHG)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/4/1

Macquarie downgrades Domain to Underperform from Neutral. This follows the recent rally in the stock. The target is $2.70.

The broker notes properties are taking longer to sell on average and the combination of school holidays, a late Easter and then Anzac Day will mean activity in April is likely to be very subdued. Beyond this, the broker finds the market difficult to call.

The main focus going forward will be execution in Victoria, in the broker's view, and the company's ability to leverage the broader platform of Nine Entertainment ((NEC)).

MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MFG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 1/6/0

Citi has downgraded Magellan Financial to Neutral from Buy following a strong share price performance, fueling the view it's time for a breather and the risk-reward proposition has become "less compelling".

Marking to market and accounting for stronger fund inflows has further pushed up earnings estimates. Target price lifts to $39.80 from $35.30.

Citi suggests Magellan Financial needs to add additional growth for further outperformance, but current optionalities require more time.

OIL SEARCH LIMITED ((OSH)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/4/1

Ord Minnett adjusts oil price forecasts for the March quarter which leads to a lift in forecasts for the June quarter to US$70/bbl, and US$65/bbl for the remainder of 2019 and 2020.

Based on valuation the broker downgrades its recommendation on Oil Search to Hold from Buy and raises the target to $8.65 from $8.60. The broker suggests the sector is now becoming fully valued.

SANTOS LIMITED ((STO)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/4/1

Credit Suisse upgrades 2019 oil price forecasts, partly offset by lower LNG spot prices, and increases the target to $6.40 from $6.28.

The broker downgrades to Underperform from Neutral because of the difficulty getting the valuation to match the current share price under global oil price assumptions.

Credit Suisse has not changed its view on the fundamentals of the company's business and the scope for growth.

Total Recommendations
Recommendation Changes

Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

 

Order Company New Rating Old Rating Broker
Upgrade
1 SENEX ENERGY LIMITED Neutral Sell Ord Minnett
Downgrade
2 BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED Sell Neutral Ord Minnett
3 BEACH ENERGY LIMITED Neutral Buy Credit Suisse
4 BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA LIMITED Neutral Buy Citi
5 BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED Neutral Buy Morgan Stanley
6 CSR LIMITED Neutral Buy Macquarie
7 DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED Sell Neutral Macquarie
8 MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED Neutral Buy Citi
9 OIL SEARCH LIMITED Neutral Buy Ord Minnett
10 SANTOS LIMITED Sell Neutral Credit Suisse

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Rating Previous Rating Change Recs
1 SXY SENEX ENERGY LIMITED 60.0% 50.0% 10.0% 5

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Rating Previous Rating Change Recs
1 AHY ASALEO CARE LIMITED 67.0% 100.0% -33.0% 3
2 BPT BEACH ENERGY LIMITED 40.0% 60.0% -20.0% 5
3 KMD KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED 33.0% 50.0% -17.0% 3
4 MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED 14.0% 29.0% -15.0% 7
5 BSL BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED 50.0% 64.0% -14.0% 7
6 DHG DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED 7.0% 21.0% -14.0% 7
7 OSH OIL SEARCH LIMITED 25.0% 38.0% -13.0% 8
8 STO SANTOS LIMITED 25.0% 38.0% -13.0% 8
9 CPU COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED -31.0% -19.0% -12.0% 8
10 BOQ BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED -44.0% -38.0% -6.0% 8

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs
1 KMD KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED 2.450 2.300 6.52% 3
2 MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED 34.734 33.413 3.95% 7
3 SXY SENEX ENERGY LIMITED 0.466 0.454 2.64% 5
4 BPT BEACH ENERGY LIMITED 2.038 2.006 1.60% 5
5 DHG DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED 2.736 2.721 0.55% 7
6 OSH OIL SEARCH LIMITED 8.614 8.595 0.22% 8
7 STO SANTOS LIMITED 6.953 6.938 0.22% 8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs
1 AHY ASALEO CARE LIMITED 1.047 1.150 -8.96% 3
2 BOQ BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED 8.794 9.193 -4.34% 8
3 CPU COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED 17.914 18.226 -1.71% 8
4 BSL BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED 15.786 15.929 -0.90% 7

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs
1 AHG AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED 15.545 3.045 410.51% 7
2 OSH OIL SEARCH LIMITED 44.708 39.489 13.22% 8
3 STO SANTOS LIMITED 54.955 49.102 11.92% 8
4 RMD RESMED INC 51.274 48.383 5.98% 8
5 GNC GRAINCORP LIMITED 6.285 6.010 4.58% 4
6 EHE ESTIA HEALTH LIMITED 16.900 16.275 3.84% 4
7 AHY ASALEO CARE LIMITED 5.967 5.800 2.88% 3
8 DMP DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED 169.086 165.529 2.15% 8
9 EVN EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED 13.293 13.036 1.97% 8
10 KMD KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED 20.913 20.633 1.36% 3

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs
1 PRU PERSEUS MINING LIMITED -0.163 -0.130 -25.38% 3
2 MHJ MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 6.000 6.367 -5.76% 4
3 SXY SENEX ENERGY LIMITED 1.180 1.240 -4.84% 5
4 BOQ BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED 79.071 82.457 -4.11% 8
5 WHC WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED 58.496 60.370 -3.10% 8
6 APE AP EAGERS LIMITED 48.445 49.695 -2.52% 4
7 MIN MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED 96.933 98.933 -2.02% 3
8 JHX JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V. 93.160 94.408 -1.32% 7
9 SKI SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP 6.624 6.684 -0.90% 7
10 DHG DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED 7.399 7.441 -0.56% 7

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedIn

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms

CHARTS

BOQ BPT BSL CSR DHG MFG NEC STO

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOQ - BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BPT - BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BSL - BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CSR - CSR LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DHG - DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MFG - MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NEC - NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: STO - SANTOS LIMITED