OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Macquarie rates CSL as Neutral

The European regulator has recommended revoking marketing authorisation for Tavneos, which represents around 6%-7% of Vifor revenue.

Macquarie notes this follows on from news that the US FDA is considering withdrawing the drug in the US, citing concerns around data handling during the pivotal phase 3 trial.

A final opinion from the European Commission is expected over the next 60 days, although the broker considers this routine and the ruling is highly likely.

CSL has marketing rights for the drug outside of the US, and has noted sales revenue for FY26 is expected to be around $145m while no guidance was provided for FY27.

Macquarie reiterates a Neutral rating, given the significant uncertainty regarding earnings in the short term across core business segments. Target moves to $114 from $111.

Morgans rates NEM as Buy

Against a backdrop of rising US bond yields, a stronger US dollar and profit taking, Morgans points out the gold price has fallen around -26% from its high in January.

After one of the "steepest" rallies in recent history, the current drawdown is noted by the analyst as largely in line with previous gold bull markets.

The broker continues to remain positive on gold and gold miners and considers the retracement in share prices as an opportunity. Morgans' near-term gold price forecast has been lowered to reflect the current spot price around US$4,000/oz.

Newmont Corp is Buy rated with a new $198 target price, from $206, previously. In large caps, Newmont is the second most preferred after Evolution Mining ((EVN)), ahead of Northern Star ((NST)).

Bell Potter rates TLS as Hold

Bell Potter previews forecasts for Telstra Group ahead of financial year-end, adjusting for price increases and clarity around the number of shares bought back in the current half-year.

The net result is slight upgrades to revenue but modest underlying downgrades (-1%) to EBITDA.

The broker continues to expect an FY26 result consistent with guidance and the final dividend to be consistent with the interim at 10.5c, albeit only 90% franked.

Few surprises are expected, so the focus will shift to the outlook for FY27. Hold rating and $5.10 target maintained.