OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

UBS rates BHP as Neutral

UBS hosted around 25 resource companies at its 2026 Australasian Conference and copper remains the preferred commodity, while iron ore negotiations with China's CMRG, labour availability, productivity, input costs and project execution remain key challenges.

The analyst explains the copper bull case remains underpinned by electrification, AI/data-centre power demand, declining grades and lengthy permitting processes, despite recent concerns around inventories, tariffs and AI infrastructure spending.

BHP highlighted growth opportunities across Escondida, Pampa Norte, Vicuña and Resolution, alongside Jansen potash, while Rio Tinto ((RIO)) pointed to Oyu Tolgoi, Winu and Escondida as nearer-term copper growth drivers.

Fortescue ((FMG)) cautioned CMRG negotiations remain challenging but highlighted capital and operating cost flexibility. Glencore ((GLC)) reiterated its copper growth opportunities, supported by coal cash flows and marketing optionality.

Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) noted improved coal prices have strengthened the FY27 outlook.

Under the broker's spot commodity price scenario, Glencore and Whitehaven offer the greatest fair value upside relative to base-case estimates.

BHP Group is Neutral rated with a $62 target.

Macquarie rates DPM as Neutral

DPM Metals' 3Q26 gold equivalent production of 96koz was pre-reported, while AISC of US$1,580/oz was 17% above consensus, Macquarie explains.

YTD production of 283koz means the company is comfortably on track to achieve the upper end of FY26 guidance of 305koz-365koz, although costs remain slightly above guidance.

The analyst highlights potential permitting delays at Coka Rakita in Serbia following a change in government, pushing back forecast first production by 12 months to 1H30. Exploration catalysts include resource updates at Chelopech and Coka Rakita over the coming quarters.

EPS forecasts are reduced -6%/-14%/-19%/-36%/-40% for FY26-FY30, respectively, reflecting higher depreciation at Vares and delayed Coka Rakita production. Macquarie retains Neutral and lowers its target price -3% to $59.

This is a summary of research released on 13 November.

Ord Minnett rates ORI as Buy

Ord Minnett raises its target for Orica to $27 from $26 (on a valuation roll-forward) following solid FY26 results, with revenue rising 1% to $8.26bn and earnings (EBITDA) increasing 6% to $1.57bn.

The broker highlights 25% earnings growth in both Mining Chemicals and Digital Solutions, supported by strong gold demand and increased technology adoption.

FY27 and FY28 EPS forecasts are lowered by –0.9% and –2.1%, respectively, reflecting higher depreciation and interest costs. Ord Minnett retains its Buy rating.

This is a summary of research released by Ord Minnett on Friday, November 13.