Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ABP as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie has reviewed the broader REIT sector, and sees downside risk to demand in self storage and office. Abacus Property has a 51% exposure to self storage and 37% to office, with both asset classes particularly sensitive to changes in the macro-economy.

In self storage, typical lease terms of 6 weeks mean reduced income certainty, the broker notes, with peer updates showing occupancy has started to moderate. Macquarie remains attracted to self storage longer term, but near term the cycle is slowing.

Macquarie also downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts to reflect its rising deck for bank bill swap rates, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a close eye on weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Macquarie observes fundamentals are shifting for Abacus Property, which has benefited from strong consumer sentiment in recent years, and that gearing appears toppy.

EPS forecasts ease -0.8% for FY23; -1.3% for FY24; and -3.1% for FY25.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target price falls -25% to $2.64 from $3.53 as the broker shifts to a net asset value assessment from a discounted cash flow valuation.

The stock still offers an attractive forward yield of 6.8%, the broker notes.

Target price is $2.64 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If ABP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Equal-weight (3) -

A $9/share consortium takeover offer values Origin Energy above Morgan Stanley's base case valuation of $8.23/share.

The broker sees positive implications for AGL Energy.

Industry view is Cautious. Stock-specific view: Equal-weight. Target $8.01.

Target price is $8.01 Current Price is $7.55 Difference: $0.46
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.53, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett sees positive implications for AGL Energy following a non-binding takeover bid for Origin energy from a consortium.

According to the analyst, the Origin bid implies an equity value of $13-14/share for AGL Energy.

The Buy rating and $9.50 target are unchanged.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.55 Difference: $1.95
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.53, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse sees opportunity for Amcor to accelerate its recycling project as REDcycle soft plastic collections are paused. As the leading manufacturer of flexible plastic packaging in Australia and New Zealand, the broker feels Amcor has a role to play in creating alternative outlets for post-consumer waste.

Post-consumer soft plastic was being recycled for use in roads, highways, kerbs and other infrastructure, but with demand impeded REDcycle has been forced to pause collections. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $17.25 are retained. 

Target price is $17.25 Current Price is $17.37 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.05, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANN as Buy (1) -

Ansell advised that EPS is more likely to fall at the lower end of original guidance.

Management spies revenue headwinds as the global economic outlook wanes (to date the company's chemical and mechanical activity is holding up), and expects this will only be partly moderated by lower cost inflation and a lower tax rate.

Meanwhile, covid destocking continues and management reports large distributors are reducing inventories, a cause for concern, says the broker.

Citi cuts EPS forecasts -3% in FY23, FY24 and FY25. Buy rating retained on valuation. Target price eases to $32 from $32.50.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $27.70 Difference: $4.3
If ANN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.49, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANN as Outperform (1) -

Ansell's AGM highlighted Mechanical, Chemical and Surgical products have recorded positive year to date growth, but Exam/Single Use and Life Sciences have seen de-stocking, evident in reduced orders.

This implies downside risk to FY23 revenue, hence Macquarie tempers revenue expectations relative to previous forecasts. Moderately lower cost inflation expectations provide some offset.

Despite potential near term headwinds, the broker sees the medium to longer term outlook as favourable for Ansell, underpinned by demand for differentiated product/growth brands, along with valuation appeal and balance sheet flexibility.

Outperform retained, target falls to $28.85 from $29.25.

Target price is $28.85 Current Price is $27.70 Difference: $1.15
If ANN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.49, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANN as Equal-weight (3) -

AGM commentary noted downside risk to FY23 revenues for Ansell, moderated somewhat by some easing in costs, SG&A restraint and a  tax expense at the lower end of the range, observes Morgan Stanley.

Management expects to achieve an FY23 EPS outcome at the lower end of its US115c-US135c range. Consensus and Morgan Stanley are currently at US124c and US121c, respectively.

Given an uncertain outlook, the broker retains its Equal-weight rating and leaves its $28.77 target unchanged. Industry view In-Line.

Target price is $28.77 Current Price is $27.70 Difference: $1.07
If ANN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.49, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANN as Hold (3) -

As part of an AGM trading update, Ansell reaffirmed FY23 guidance though earnings are expected to be in the "lower half" of the wide (due to the challenging operating environment) guidance range.

Usage of exam/single use gloves continues to normalise following covid highs, though the analyst points to moderation of inflationary pressures, better cost control and lower tax.

While management alluded to generally favourable industrial activity, widespread commentary of looming recessionary conditions later in FY23 was noted.

The target falls to $24.14 from $25.52. Hold.

Target price is $24.14 Current Price is $27.70 Difference: minus $3.56 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.49, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANN as Buy (1) -

As part of an AGM trading update, Ansell has provided EPS guidance to the low end of the previous range, as distributors in the life science and industrial gloves sectors de-stock in preparation for an economic slowdown.

The analyst observes lower sales are being mitigated by less cost inflation than anticipated and ongoing cost containment measures. However, the latest US dollar rise is weighing on earnings.

The broker reduces its target to $32.00 from $32.50 and maintains its Buy rating on valuation appeal, strong market position and an under-geared balance sheet.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $27.70 Difference: $4.3
If ANN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.49, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARF as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts to reflect its rising deck for bank bill swap rates, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a close eye on weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Macquarie expects higher swap rates create a slight headwind for Arena REIT and tinkers with EPS forecasts.

Given the company's defensive income streams and CPI-linked investments, along with high levels of private ownership, Macquarie expects valuations will hold for ELC assets, and appreciated the company's strong balance sheet and hedging stance.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $3.83 from $4.74 to reflect a shift in the broker's methodology to discounted cash flow from net asset value.

Target price is $3.83 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.19, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BRG as Overweight (1) -

Ahead of today's AGM, Breville Group noted input costs continue to trend down and despite recent lockdowns in China there is sufficient inventory on hand to meet demand, which is running in line with management expectations.

Morgan Stanley expects only limited changes to FY23 consensus forecasts.

The Overweight rating and $26 target price are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $19.95 Difference: $6.05
If BRG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.33, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses a relatively pleasing 1Q trading update by Breville Group (in-light of rising interest rates) and notes the growth potential from new product development and new territory expansion.

Management said the year-to-date sell-in (sales to retailers) is performing as expected, describing the Americas’ region as solid, APAC steady, and EMEA challenging.

The company pointed to a more predictable supply chain and noted input costs such as steel and freight are trending down.

The broker's Buy rating and $25 target are unchanged.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $19.95 Difference: $5.05
If BRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.33, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BRG as Buy (1) -

UBS found Breville Group's market update in line with its expectations, with the company reporting some improvement to input costs and supply-side headwinds. The broker notes demand has largely held up in the Americas and Australia Pacific, but conditions continue to challenge results in Europe and the Middle East. 

UBS expects the region will remain challenged through the coming year, and has reduced its sales expectations accordingly. The broker remains positive on the medium-term outlook for the retailer.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $24.60 from $25.00.

Target price is $24.60 Current Price is $19.95 Difference: $4.65
If BRG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.33, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

In anticipation of CommBank's 1Q trading update on November 15, Morgan Stanley forecasts cash profit of around $2.61bn (up
6% on the 2H FY22 quarterly average) and pre-provision profit of $3.88bn.

Underweight and $85.50 target retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $85.50 Current Price is $104.04 Difference: minus $18.54 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.91, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a keen eye to weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Macquarie reduces Charter Hall's asset value assumptions by -15% and increases its forecast cap rate expansion to 100 basis points from 20bps (every 25bp represents a 2.5% on EPS, notes the broker).

Macquarie also suspects acquisition volumes this year exceeded Macquarie's $5bn target for the December half. 

Outperform rating retained. Target price falls to $14.63 from $15.86.

Target price is $14.63 Current Price is $13.06 Difference: $1.57
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.80, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIP as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie has reviewed the broader REIT sector, and sees strong direct market fundamentals for Centuria Industrial REIT offset by interest costs.

Solid rent growth industrial and execution of the development pipeline provides for stronger revenues, but a low level of interest rate hedging will lead to a subdued earnings growth outlook.

Property devaluations may also result in more limited funding capacity, the broker notes.

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts to reflect its rising deck for bank bill swap rates, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a keen eye to weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Teh broker notes Centuria Industrial REIT's gearing is looking toppy and applies a -2% discount to net asset value.

Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform to reflect rising rates and the affect of falling asset values on the group's funding capacity. Target price falls to $3.02 from $3.69.

Target price is $3.02 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $0.09
If CIP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts to reflect its rising deck for bank bill swap rates, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a close eye on weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Macquarie considers Charter Hall Long WALE REIT to be one of the weaker REITs.

Macquarie raises its cap-rate expansion estimate from 75pbps to 125bps, after switching to a net-asset-value methodology from a discounted-cash-flow valuation, resulting a -15% decline in asset values and toppy gearing of 44%.

The broker now assumes an equity raising, which would be -3% dilutive to net tangible assets and says a further fall in asset values could reduce balance-sheet clearance to covenants.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $4.08 from $4.75.

Target price is $4.08 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If CLW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.53, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CPU as Buy (1) -

Computershare upgraded FY23 EPS by 55% and margin income guidance rises to US$800m from US$520m, confirming the company's strong sensitivity to interest rate movements, suggests Citi.

FY24 guidance rises to US$1bn.After factoring in actual foreign exchange rates, Citi's forecasts imply less than the above. EPS forecasts rise 19% in FY23 and FY24; and 18% in FY25.

The broker believes the result was struck on a strong improvement in the company's cash-rate capture, noting the proportion of the company's overnight cash balances is on target to hit an annualised 90% (some of which will materialise in FY24), which compares with 65% in FY22.

The mortgage servicing business is faring less well as origination and refinancing revenues struggle. Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $31.10 from $28.20.

Target price is $31.10 Current Price is $27.07 Difference: $4.03
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.90, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CPU as Outperform (1) -

Strong margin income growth has seen Computershare lift its FY23 earnings per share 20%, to US$1.10, and margin income guidance to US$800m from US$520m. 

Credit Suisse highlights the upgrade comes as a result of higher average cash rates, better negotiated rates and an increased use of hedging. The company also provided maiden margin income guidance for FY24 of US$1,010m, a beat to the broker's expected US$850m. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $29.00 are retained.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $27.07 Difference: $1.93
If CPU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.90, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CPU as Outperform (1) -

At its AGM, Computershare provided a 4-month trading update and an upgrade to FY23 guidance to 90% Management earnings growth from 55%, driven by higher margin income partly offset by weaker earnings outside margin income.

This exceeds Macquarie's forecast. Rising yields continue to outpace Computershare’s inflationary pressures, the broker notes, with the near-term prospect of additional cost-outs plus a capital return.

Outperform retained, target rises to $40.25 from $38.75.

Target price is $40.25 Current Price is $27.07 Difference: $13.18
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.90, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Overweight (1) -

Computershare's new FY23 guidance for 90% EPS growth, up from 55%, is a beat versus the forecasts of Morgan Stanley and consensus by 18% and 22%, respectively. Consensus upgrades are expected.

Margin income guidance rises to US$800m from US$520m, which is mostly attributable to higher interest rates, though US96m came via rate recapture or portfolio efficiencies, explains the analyst.

The broker highlights a better-than-expected performance from the Computershare Corporate Trust business and the growth in Governance Services.

The Overweight rating and $29.40 target are retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $29.40 Current Price is $27.07 Difference: $2.33
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.90, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CPU as Add (1) -

At Computershare's AGM, management upgraded FY23 EPS growth guidance compared to the previous corresponding period to 90% from 55%, mainly due to the benefit from rising interest rates.

As a result of the new guidance, Morgans lifts its FY23 and FY24 EPS forecasts by around 20% and 35%, respectively, and the target jumps to $33.52 from $28.04. Add.

Management now expects FY23 earnings (EBITDA) for the Computershare Corporate Trust business of US$450m, up from US$84m in 2020 (highlights the broker). The company has also identified US$80m of synergies from this business by 2027.

Target price is $33.52 Current Price is $27.07 Difference: $6.45
If CPU meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.90, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Accumulate (2) -

Computershare has upgraded FY23 margin income guidance by US$280m. Ord Minnett points out US$96m of the upgrade is a result of new arrangements through banking partnerships, resulting in better efficiency.

The analyst feels current guidance implies a lot more softening in non-margin income, though more likely reflects some conservatism by management. Thus, while estimates are upgraded in line with guidance, there is potential upside from non-margin income.

Ord Minnett's target rises to $29.50 from $27.00. Accumulate.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $27.07 Difference: $2.43
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.90, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CPU as Buy (1) -

Computershare's share price has lifted 4% in response to the company lifting its full year growth guidance to 90% from 55%, a reaction the broker finds underwhelming given the scale of the update. 

According to the broker, the muted response is reflective of market concern around the quality of the update, which it feels ignores the strong contribution from the CCT acquisition. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $30.50 from $28.00.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $27.07 Difference: $3.43
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.90, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CQR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a keen eye to weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Macquarie expects Charter Hall Retail REIT's balance sheet would be stretched by a cap rate expansion of 100 basis points but expects convenience retail and petrol stations offer support, and observes 55% of leases are indirectly or directly linked to the CPI.

Outperform rating retained to reflect the REIT's defensive growth profile. Target price falls to $4.06 from $4.42.

Target price is $4.06 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.08
If CQR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

Various data points in October indicate to Morgan Stanley signs of accelerating plasma collection volumes in the US across the industry.

Also, the industry-wide collection centre rollout remains strong, according to the broker.

Overweight and $327 target retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $327.00 Current Price is $282.73 Difference: $44.27
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $324.78, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSR as Buy (1) -

Following CSR's strategy day, UBS notes the company has the highest quality undeveloped land among its peers and key near-term sites hold upside potential for valuation. 

The broker also highlighted the potential in Hebel. While UBS assumes the company is currently running at $115m revenue per annum, volumes are growing double digit. The broker expects Hebel will displace CSR's brick operations, but at a higher margin. 

The Buy rating and target price of $6.50 are retained.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $4.34 Difference: $2.16
If CSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.47, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CWY as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse anticipates Cleanaway Waste Management will update earnings targets at its investor presentation in late November. The broker expects the presentation will focus on operational improvements and potential to deliver attractive financial returns. 

With Cleanaway Waste Management retained $700m net debt at floating interest rates, Credit Suisse has lifted its net interest assumption for FY23 to $85m from $21m. This sees earnings per share forecasts decline -8% and -6% for FY23 and FY24 respectively. 

The Underperform rating and target price of $2.40 are retained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If CWY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Domain Holdings' listings growth of 5% reported in the September quarter was largely as Macquarie expected. Both REA Group ((REA)) and Domain expect the subdued pace of listings seen in September/October to continue throughout FY23.

For Domain, this results in listings growth half to half of -10%-15% given a strong comparable second half FY22. The broker's prior assumption was -5%.

Domain is more exposed to the cycle but Macquarie notes the group has greater upside potential in its yield outlook given its low depth penetration percentage.

It is the broker's view the deep discount in valuation between Domain and REA already reflects the heightened cyclicality.

Neutral retained, target falls to $3.00 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $0.07
If DHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DXI as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Dexus Industria REIT has divested of its Rhodes business park at a -15% discount to book value. Macquarie estimates this is -9% dilutive to earnings going forward.

However, the balance sheet has been strengthened, and additional capacity can now be used to fund the development pipeline, the broker notes. The REIT is now some 88% industrial.

Dexus Industria is currently implying a -20% fall in asset values, which in Macquarie's view is overly aggressive in light of the strong rental growth being achieved in industrial. 

Meanwhile, Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a keen eye to weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Macquarie considers the balance sheet to be among the less attractive among peers but after the Rhodes divestment considers the position to be more positive.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target price falls to $2.89 from $3.08 to reflect the dilution.

Target price is $2.89 Current Price is $2.76 Difference: $0.13
If DXI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DXS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a keen eye to weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Macquarie cuts adjusted funds from operations forecasts to reflect rising rates and the broker's about-face on the outlook for a recovery in office incentives in FY24.

The broker observes the REIT has a big development pipeline and difficulty selling assets could bring leverage to 100bps and a $1.3bn refinancing is due in FY24.

Outperform rating retained, the broker, while cautious on the office recovery market, acknowledging Dexus' guidance for a recovery. Target price slides to $9.02 from $10.79.

Target price is $9.02 Current Price is $7.68 Difference: $1.34
If DXS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.83, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a keen eye to weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Goodman Group is the broker's top pick thanks to its attractive balance sheet and pricing power, which the broker believes will offset inflation-induced challenges.

Outperform rating retained. Target price eases to $20.34 from $23.93

Target price is $20.34 Current Price is $17.23 Difference: $3.11
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.84, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has reviewed the 5.3x increase since FY14 in Development work in progress (WIP) for Goodman Group and concludes the uplift was mostly led by an increase in the value of the work.

By contrast, (a more negative) perception in the market is the group picked up a significant amount of physical activity over this time, accelerated by a bringing-forward of warehouse demand during covid, explains the analyst.

The Overweight rating and $24.10 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line. 

Target price is $24.10 Current Price is $17.23 Difference: $6.87
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.84, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOZ as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a keen eye to weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Macquarie adjusts Growthpoint Properties Australia's EPS estimates to account for the divestment of 333 Ann St in Brisbane and expanded cap rates. Forecasts rise 0.7% in FY23; fall -1.8% in FY24; and fall -2% in FY25.

The broker notes the internal target gear range is toppy and suspects this could result in the share market discounting the stock should the company's gearing rise post market deratings.

The broker maintains its view that guidance is conservative. Outperform rating retained. Target price falls to $3.45 from $4.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.22
If GOZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.73, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GPT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a keen eye to weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

GPT Group is expected to fare better than most. Outperform rating retained. Target price rises to $4.78 from $4.70.

Target price is $4.78 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $0.48
If GPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HCW as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a keen eye to weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Macquarie lowers FFOps forecasts for HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT to reflect the broker's rising bank bills swap rate forecasts.

The broker observes the REIT's gearing is looking toppy and estimates that in the event of a cap rate expansion to 75basis points, it would need to divest -$150m in assets or raise $100m in equity to return to 35% gearing.

Outperform rating retained, the broker believing the implied cap-rate expansion to be overly cautious. Target price falls to $1.54 from $2.01.

Target price is $1.54 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $0.13
If HCW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HDN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a keen eye to weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

EPS forecasts for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT are reduced to reflect higher bank bill swap rates.

But Macquarie admires the balance sheet, which it expects will fund growth in funds from operations through developments and positive leasing spreads, allowing it to outpace peers.

Outperform rating retained, the broker admiring the 6.8% dividend yield. Target price falls to $1.37 from $1.62 to reflect rising rates.

Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.115
If HDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.42, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HMC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts to reflect its rising deck for bank bill swap rates, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a close eye on weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Home Consortium's is one of those facing lower asset valuations, says Macquarie.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $4.81 from $5.52.

Target price is $4.81 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $0.07
If HMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.90, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IVC as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Looking to US and UK data, Macquarie finds year to date death rates remain elevated despite both countries recording materially elevated deaths in 2020 and 2021, primarily due to covid. This suggests Australian deaths may remain elevated longer than prior expectations.

Industry volumes should be stronger over 2023 than previously thought, Macquarie notes, creating upside risk for InvoCare earnings if management successfully executes its expansion strategy.

Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform. Target rises to $11.40 from $10.75.

Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $10.88 Difference: $0.52
If IVC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.76, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JIN as Outperform (1) -

Jumbo Interactive's trading update advises revenue grew 10% in the four months to October 31, thanks to strong Powerball jackpot activity through October.

Macquarie observes that overall digital penetration slowed in the period, and that software as a service experienced new customer growth, an improvement in Lotterywest volumes, and a sharp improvement in Managed Services, thanks to Stride.

The broker spies strong Australian industry growth (pegging a 5% six-year compound annual growth rate of 5%).

EPS forecasts rise 3% for FY23, but outer years are shaved to reflect an expected slowing in digital penetration.

Outperform rating and $18.05 target price retained.

Target price is $18.05 Current Price is $13.91 Difference: $4.14
If JIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.41, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JIN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes from Jumbo Interactive's 1Q update that SaaS total transaction value (TTV) and external revenue grew by 18%, with LotteryWest sales set to benefit from stronger October jackpots.

Management reiterated organic margin targets and noted the pricing opportunity in Powerball.

The Overweight rating and $19 target are maintained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $13.91 Difference: $5.09
If JIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.41, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JRV as Outperform (1) -

Jervois Global announces a $231m equity capital raising to fund its Sao Miguel Paulista restart, ICO capital expenditure and ramp-up, and Jervois Finland expansion study.

Macquarie cuts EPS forecasts -29% in 2022; -69% in 2023; and -43% in 2024.

The broker says major shareholders are supportive and says recent deleveraging will allow the company to focus on production.

Meanwhile, the company guided to lower cobalt concentrate guidance (-29% on the broker's estimate) but also guided to solid copper concentrate production (23% above the broker's forecasts).

Outperform rating retained. Target price falls to 55c from 70c.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.045
If JRV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LLC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie downgrades Lendlease Group to Neutral from Outperform after the company advised returns would fall at the lower end of divisional targets for FY23.

Macquarie says the lower end of FY24 return forecasts are not de-risked and will rely on good commencements and leasing outcomes.

The broker notes the company is leaning towards more third-party capital for developments but expects this might be a tough ask in the current environment.

Meanwhile, Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a keen eye to weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Target price falls to $8.74 from $13.33.

Target price is $8.74 Current Price is $7.96 Difference: $0.78
If LLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.43, suggesting upside of 42.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a keen eye to weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Macquarie observes increased interest expenses, reduced development returns from 55 Pitt street and lower residential earnings (EBIT) have combined to reduced Mirvac Group's earnings outlook.

Outperform rate retained, the broker expecting the company to ride out short term challenges with residential pre-sales providing some certainty for FY24. The broker also suspects gearing will stay within target. Target price falls to $2.21 from $2.39.

Target price is $2.21 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.1
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.44, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

An in-line full year result from National Australia Bank according to UBS, with fourth quarter cash earnings up 1% quarter-on-quarter and net interest margins expanding 10 basis points. Operating expenses, up 6% year-on-year to $8.3bn, were a focus of the result. 

National Australia Bank has warned investment spend will increase in the coming year, but it also targets productivity savings of -$400m. The broker lifts its earnings per share forecasts 3% and 1% for FY23 and FY24.

The Neutral rating and target price of $33.00 are retained.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $31.00 Difference: $2
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.12, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NEC as Outperform (1) -

Following first quarter updates, Credit Suisse expects free to air to remain under pressure while broadcaster video on demand (BVOD) continues to make gains. Industry ad market performance to date is in line with the broker's expectations. 

Nine Entertainment reported total television ad revenue growth of 9% in the quarter. The company did narrow its full year guidance to the lower end of its previous guidance range on weaker listings on Domain. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.20 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: $1.16
If NEC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 34.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett lowers its free-to-air advertising forecasts across the Media sector and incorporates Nine Entertainment's recent 1Q results, which showed 1H earnings will be hurt by cost issues at Domain Holdings ((DHG)).

The broker observes social media platforms (Big tech) point to a softening within the short-term end of the ad-spectrum, though industry feedback is yet to flag significant weakness across traditional advertising budgets.

The target falls to $2.60 from $3.10. Buy.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: $0.56
If NEC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 34.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NSR as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts to reflect its rising deck for bank bill swap rates, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a close eye on weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

EPS forecasts for National Storage REIT fall -1.2% in FY23; rise 1.7% in FY24; and rise 2.6% in FY25.

Macquarie observes the REIT has benefited from strong consumer sentiment and high house turnovers in recent years but expects these trends to moderate.

Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral, the broker anticipating a downturn in self-storage fundamentals as weaker demand hits higher supply and observes the group is still trading at a premium to peers. 

Target price falls -17.3% to reflect the broker's switch from a discounted-cash-flow valuation to a net-asset-value calculation (which results in an expansion to the cap rate).

Target price is $1.96 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If NSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.34, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NUF as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse expects Nufarm should be able to deliver a result towards the top end of consensus, underpinned by strong crop fundamentals improvement to costs and margins. 

The broker continues to consider Nufarm a compelling long-term growth story, driven by expansion of its omega-3 canola oil, carinata and convention seeds businesses. In particular, Credit Suisse finds fundamentals for canola to be increasingly attractive. 

The rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target price decreases to $6.85 from $6.96.

Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $5.46 Difference: $1.39
If NUF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.71, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Origin Energy has negotiated a take-over bid at a premium to Macquarie's valuation and the broker sees transaction risks residing with the ACCC.

The broker also highlights the $9 per share agreement is cum any future dividends.

Target now lifted to $9 (for obvious reasons). Outperform retained. Macquarie's valuation remains $7.83.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.83 Difference: $1.17
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Equal-weight (3) -

The $9/share consortium takeover offer values Origin Energy above Morgan Stanley's base case valuation of $8.23/share.

The broker sees positive implications for AGL Energy.

The Equal-weight rating and $6.08 target are unchanged. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $6.08 Current Price is $7.83 Difference: minus $1.75 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORG as Hold (3) -

The board of Origin Energy will unanimously back the $9/share non-binding indicative takeover offer from a Brookfield and EIG consortium, following an eight week exclusive due diligence period.

Morgans sees some regulatory risk to deal completion from gaining FIRB and ACCC approvals, given currently tight energy markets, a view supported by Origin Energy’s share price, currently trading at a significant discount to the takeover price. 

As a result of this deal risk, the Hold rating is unchanged, while the target rises to $8.11 from $5.44.

The consortium will increase its offer by 3cps/month if implementation is not complete before May 15, 2023.

Target price is $8.11 Current Price is $7.83 Difference: $0.28
If ORG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett increases its target for Origin Energy to $9.00 from $6.00 following a non-binding takeover bid from a consortium. It's felt the full price will likely rule out bids by other players. The rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold.

The broker suggests regulatory issues may hinder the bid as the Federal government may not desire privatisation in light of ongoing scrutiny around elevated energy prices.

On the flipside, the government may like the $20bn commitment by the consortium to expand the company's renewable power generation, explains the analyst.

Ord Minnett sees positive implications for AGL Energy as the Origin bid implies an equity value of $13-14/share.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.83 Difference: $1.17
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a keen eye to weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Macquarie upgrades Qualitas EPS forecasts after an economic update to reflect estimated higher interest income.

The broker observes the company is net cash on an operating basis and continues to draw institutions to its credit funds. 

Macquarie considers the equity and credit funds make it less exposed than peers to market conditions and expects this may prove an opportunity for the REIT to build market share. Qualitas is also enjoying growth in funds under management.

Outperform rating and $3.21 target price retained.

Target price is $3.21 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $0.77
If QAL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Underperform (5) -

It is Macquarie's observation the Q1 trading update was in line with expectations but the listings outlook proved softer than anticipated.

Bottom line: Macquarie is a lot less positive than market consensus, and has held an Underperform rating for a while because of it.

Target $88 as forecasts have been further reduced (down from $91).

Target price is $88.00 Current Price is $110.99 Difference: minus $22.99 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $127.51, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SCG as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a keen eye to weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Macquarie considers Scentre Group to be one of the more vulnerable REITs, expecting expanded cap rates will raise leverage to 48%, which the broker considers to be unsustainable given the company's future capital expenditure bill. This is likely to leave Scentre Group in a position where it needs to sell assets or raise capital (unlikely says the broker), to return leverage to 35%, explains Macquarie.

Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target price falls to $2.54 from $2.79.

Target price is $2.54 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If SCG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Equal-weight (3) -

Scentre Group reiterated guidance for both 2022 DPS and funds from operations (FFO).

Management advised specialty sales for the September quarter were up 15.6% compared to the September 2019 quarter, suggesting to Morgan Stanley a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 4.9% over the last three years.

Rent collection in the 3Q was more than 100%, which implies to the analyst some of the $200m in accounts receivables has been collected.

The Equal-weight rating and $3.00 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.1
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SCP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts to reflect its rising deck for bank bill swap rates, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a close eye on weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Macquarie appreciates Shopping Centres Australasia Property's defensive income profile but says relative valuation and hedging are problematic.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls -6% to $2.51 from $2.68 as the broker switches from a discounted cash-flow valuation to a net -asset-value methodology.

Target price is $2.51 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If SCP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a keen eye to weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Stockland has managed to escape unscathed following the recent September-quarter update. The broker notes the company is approaching an attractive valuation but remains cautious given the potential for consensus downgrades in FY24.

Neutral rating and $3.32 target price retained.

Target price is $3.32 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.02, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SHL as Overweight (1) -

Third quarter results for Sonic Healthcare peer Synlab suggest to Morgan Stanley a weaker underlying German revenue outlook offset by better PCR testing, which may have positive margin implications for Sonic.

The $38.60 target and Overweight rating are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $38.60 Current Price is $32.50 Difference: $6.1
If SHL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.11, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SSG as Accumulate (2) -

A  return to in-store shopping at the Shaver Shop in the 1Q more than offset a decline in online sales, according to Ord Minnett. Overall sales growth is expected to moderate over November and December.

In a solid outcome, according to the analyst, management reported January 1 to November 6 sales growth of 13% compared to the previous corresponding period. Gross profit margins remain well above long-term averages.

Ord Minnett makes no changes to its forecasts and maintains its Accumulate rating and $1.30 target.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.19
If SSG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Buy (1) -

Suncorp Group's September-quarter result outpaced Citi's estimates, the company recording strong volume and an above-target-range net interest margin.

The broker now considers the company's guidance to be "a tad" more plausible, noting Suncorp Group's FY23 underlying insurance margin target is on course, and appreciating the bank's greater-than 4% running yield.

EPS forecasts rise 10% in FY23; and 2% in FY24 and FY25.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $13.50 from $13.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $12.01 Difference: $1.49
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.44, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SUN as Outperform (1) -

Strong first quarter net interest margins of 199 basis points, and an even higher exit rate, give Credit Suisse confidence in its recent upgrades to Suncorp Group's outlook. 

The company reported an annualised mortgage growth rate of 13.1% in the first quarter, well ahead of the broker's full year forecast of 6% and 3.1x system growth. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $13.90 are retained.

Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $12.01 Difference: $1.89
If SUN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.44, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

UBS describes Suncorp Group's Bank as having had a remarkable turnaround over the last year. First quarter loan growth was 3.1x system growth, with broker traction improving, while net interest margins increased to 199 basis points.

The broker expects value to be unlocked for Suncorp Group with the sale of its Bank operations in the coming year. UBS estimates excluding the impact of the Bank segment, the stock is trading at 10.1x which it finds cheap comparable to peers.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $15.00 from $14.80.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.01 Difference: $2.99
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.44, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SWM as Outperform (1) -

Following first quarter updates, Credit Suisse expects free to air to remain under pressure while broadcaster video on demand (BVOD) continues to make gains. Industry ad market performance to date is in line with the broker's expectations. 

Seven West Media is anticipating an -8% total television ad revenue decline over the first half as it cycles off the benefit of the Olympics in the previous comparable period, which should moderate somewhat in the second quarter.

The Outperform rating and target price of $0.90 are retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.45
If SWM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting upside of 40.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SWM as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett lowers its free-to-air advertising forecasts across the Media sector and incorporates Seven West Media's recent 1Q results, which revealed mean reversion in market share.

The broker observes social media platforms (Big tech) point to a softening within the short-term end of the ad-spectrum, though industry feedback is yet to flag significant weakness across traditional advertising budgets.

The target falls to 40c from 65c. Hold.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If SWM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.63, suggesting upside of 40.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie downgrades its outlook for Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts, expecting the rising cost of capital could combine with a recession-induced fall in bond yields, to pressure weaker balance sheets.

The broker says most covenants appear safe but investors will need to keep a keen eye to weaker players.

Falling asset valuations means balance sheet capacity is likely to moderate notes the broker, the upshot being development pipelines will need to be reduced or funded through asset sales (not an easy task in a rising rate environment).

Neutral rating retained. Macquarie appreciates the company's September-quarter update, strong balance sheet, hedging profile, and outlook for re-leasing spread spreads. Target price shaved to $1.99 from $2.03.

Target price is $1.99 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.035
If VCX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.95, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Xero's September-half earnings (EBITDA) fell -12% short of consensus and -10% short of Citi's forecasts, despite rising 26% year on year, due to higher-than-expected costs.

The company also announced a new CEO.

New staff hires fell sharply (their lowest since FY14, observes the broker), margins fell, the north Americas struggled and product development expenditure rose.

Management reiterated cost guidance and its intention to reinvest cash rather than dividends or other capital management options.

Buy rating retained and $106.80 target price retained for now.

Target price is $106.80 Current Price is $64.74 Difference: $42.06
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $85.24, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates XRO as Neutral (3) -

Post the release of interim financials, Macquarie has upgraded forecasts on the back of stronger average return per user (ARPU), but the disappointment is with slower growth in international subscribers.

While management at Xero is reducing spending on marketing, Macquarie notes this should translate into the company becoming profitable for the full financial year, but it might also translate into slower growth medium-term.

Macquarie is banking on ARPU growth to surprise to the upside. Target price drops by -5% to $70. Neutral.

Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $64.74 Difference: $5.26
If XRO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $85.24, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates XRO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley lowers its target for Xero to $95 from $130 after reducing FY23-24 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -5% in response to 1H results. Revenue growth of 30% on the previous corresponding period was considered strong, but earnings missed.

The broker reiterates that investors now prefer companies that can demonstrate a pivot to well established earnings profitability and expanding free cash flow. Xero doesn't currently meet these requirements.

The analyst feels the company has a meaningful opportunity to create value should it pivot to profitability by reducing its expense base/capex. Overweight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $64.74 Difference: $30.26
If XRO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $85.24, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates XRO as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a mixed 1H result for Xero with underlying earnings (EBITDA) a miss versus expectation due to higher opex, while both revenue and gross profit were broadly in line. Strong cost control and pricing were considered positives.

While subscriber growth was slower than forecast, the analyst highlights pricing power was evident and a weaker New Zealand dollar assisted. Revenue grew by 30% year-on-year in constant currency terms.

Management noted FY23 expenses (as a % of revenue) will remain at the lower end of the 80-85% range. No formal revenue guidance was provided. 

The target falls to $77 from $90.25 and the Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $77.00 Current Price is $64.74 Difference: $12.26
If XRO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $85.24, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates XRO as Accumulate (2) -

While 1H results showed a strong lift in average revenue per user (ARPU) for Xero, and Ord Minnett sees potential near-term price-led growth, subscriber growth in Nth America and the UK disappointed. 

Revenue for the half was up 30% on the previous corresponding period and was a 1% beat versus the broker's estimate though total subscriptions were a -1.6% miss.

While higher 1H costs also weighed, the analyst sheets these home to seasonality from the return of physical Xerocon events and
the write-off of an underperforming acquisition. Management retained FY23 cost guidance, at the lower end of the range.

The broker maintains its Accumulate rating and lowers its target to $89.00 from $97.00.

Target price is $89.00 Current Price is $64.74 Difference: $24.26
If XRO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $85.24, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates XRO as Neutral (3) -

Delays with Xero's UK Making Tax Digital and seasonal weakness in North America saw Xero deliver a miss in International subscribers in its first half. UBS lowers its revenue, earnings and free cash flow assumptions by -3%, -10% and -8% respectively. 

The broker is confident the company will be able to reaccelerate net adds in the UK in the second half, but does lower its net adds assumptions to 66,000 from 82,000

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $73.65 from $80.40.

Target price is $73.65 Current Price is $64.74 Difference: $8.91
If XRO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $85.24, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources