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Rudi’s View: 2022, The Big Adjustment

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Always an independent thinker, Rudi has not shied away from making big out-of-consensus predictions that proved accurate later on. When Rio Tinto shares surged above $120 he wrote investors should sell. In mid-2008 he warned investors not to hold on to equities in oil producers. In August 2008 he predicted the largest sell-off in commodities stocks was about to follow. In 2009 he suggested Australian banks were an excellent buy. Between 2011 and 2015 Rudi consistently maintained investors were better off avoiding exposure to commodities and to commodities stocks. Post GFC, he dedicated his research to finding All-Weather Performers. See also "All-Weather Performers" on this website, as well as the Special Reports section.

Rudi's View | Feb 17 2022

This story features HEALIUS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HLS

In this week's Weekly Insights:

-2022, The Big Adjustment
-February Reporting Season – Predictions & Forecasts
-Conviction Calls
-FNArena Talks

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

2022, The Big Adjustment

Twenty-seven years ago, almost on the dot, the US Federal Reserve, under heavy political pressure, started lifting interest rates and instantly changed market sentiment and the direction of equity indices.

The shift was quite controversial at the time as it had not been communicated properly; there was no run-away inflation, the Fed was pre-empting what could potentially be on the horizon, and bond markets had had no time to prepare.

1994 marks the last real inflation scare for US financial markets. Up until this year.

There are plenty of differences in context between then and now, but the key common characteristics are:

1. a sudden shift in monetary policy at the US Fed
2. a bond market that needs to adjust

Back then, between February 1994 and February 1995 the federal funds rate went from 3% to 6% and the 30-year bond rate shifted to 8.2% at its peak in November from 5.8% early in the year.

And US equities? The bull market that had been trending higher up until then quickly shifted into a period of high volatility with large draw-downs followed by sharp rallies, after which the same pattern continued, and again. By the end of the calendar year, market indices on balance had hardly moved, but the swings in between had many market observers suffering from whiplash.

The graphic below shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average between the start and end of that calendar year.

There's a big fall once the market responds to the swift re-adjustment in bonds and even after a major shift to the upside later in the year, the 30 stocks average remained steadfastly below the peak seen in January.

Once the Fed was done, and bond markets were comfortable with the outlook for growth and inflation, the interrupted bull market resumed its path upwards. Most investors will still remember how the second part of the 1990s in particular delivered huge gains for equity investors.

But throughout 1994 all that mattered was the sudden (and aggressive) shift in Fed policy and the recalibration in bonds that kept a lid on equities.

For today's investors, it is important to understand what is causing the elevated volatility and the general angst towards growth and technology stocks; it's not the fact that interest rates will soon be on the rise, it's the fact that up until late December/early January central bankers seemed comfortable and relaxed about their policies for the year ahead, and bond markets and equities had taken their guidance on board.

Rising bond yields are in essence not different from higher oil prices or a stronger currency. Slow, gradual increases and decreases are to everyone's benefit, but when a sudden, sharp reversal occurs, mayhem is but the logical result.

All About Forecasts And Anticipation

The change in inflation forecasts over the past five weeks has been nothing short of dramatic.

Sure, the bond market in Australia had gone parabolic already in 2021 but most, including RBA governor Philip Lowe, had assumed local bond vigilantes would have to eat their aggressive price action with buckets full of humility later this year and next.

In the US, 10-, 20- and 30-year Treasuries simply refused to cross the 2% level despite headline inflation numbers running at multi-decade highs.

Underpinning all of this was a general forecast that consumer price inflation, re-ignited by exceptional circumstances created by the global pandemic, will peak in the first quarter of 2022, and then start trending down. Irrespective of what has occurred over the first six weeks of the new calendar year, this general assumption can still be correct.

As a matter of fact, there are still plenty of economists around who have not changed their inflation trajectory forecast.

What has changed, however, is markets are now considering the idea that the Federal Reserve might have waited too long, and will be forced to step on the monetary brakes through accelerated actions. It is this change in projections that is currently feeding into volatility and uncertainty in markets.

Let there be no mistake: just about everyone in 2021 is adjusting forecasts for inflation, bond yields, and consequences for economies and equities.

In Australia, the general shift is to pull forward the first RBA rate hike to November or August this year.

In the US, forecasts have literally gone into overdrive with all kinds of scenarios being considered, including starting the cycle with 50bp, hiking at every meeting this year, having rate hikes in between meetings, and continuing at full force throughout 2023.

Right now this very much feels like a market without leadership, a feeling further reinforced by inconsistent and contradictory signals given by decision makers at the helm of central banks in the US and in Europe. At least Lowe & Co have remained relatively steadfast in their messaging to investors in Australia.

Markets without clear guidance and leadership, they weave and they waver. Who knows what is wrong and right, what is plausible and what is only possible? And with social media handing everyone a public voice these days, we are all inflation experts and forecasters in 2022.

The trajectory of inflation matters this year. It matters because bond yields might have to sell-off further (yields up) as central bankers step harder on the breaks, but nothing in this is without consequences. I'll use the latest update by Goldman Sachs as illustration.

Healthy Earnings + Higher Rates = Lower Valuations

The US strategy team of Goldman Sachs led by David Kostin last week raised their average US earnings per share forecasts for 2022 and 2023 to 8% growth and 6% growth year-on-year, respectively.

Under different circumstances, this would have been excellent news for a market that has seen some sell-offs and more than just a smidgen of doubt about the sustainability and longevity of US corporate profits and margins.

But inflation has kept surprising to the upside and now economists at the firm have further increased their forecast to seven rate hikes in 2022 (from five), which are expected to push the 10-year bond yield to 2.25% later in the year.

This has a negative impact for equity valuations and Goldman Sachs has now revised its year-end target for the S&P500 to 4900 from a prior 5100.

The index started the calendar year near 4800 so 2022 doesn't look like a repeat of last year, but after the January correction, the updated forecast still implies a potential double-digit return from current level, hardly anything to be sniffed at. But here comes the but…

If US inflation continues to surprise to the upside, and the Federal Reserve needs to apply the brakes harder and faster, this will push US indices to much lower levels. Under such a scenario, Goldman Sachs is projecting 3900 or, in case of an economic recession, 3600 for the S&P500.

A more bullish scenario, whereby inflation deflates much quicker and the Fed halts its tightening sees the bull market returning much faster with Kostin & Co anticipating a swift coiled-up rally towards 5500.

Pick Your Strategy

Dynamics in Australia are quite different from the US, with inflation significantly lower and economic growth, coming out of lock-downs, expected to firm throughout the year whereas in the US economic growth is decelerating and inflation is high and surprising to the upside.

There is equally no political pressure from Canberra to start the tightening cycle ASAP.

But the Australian bond and share markets are not immune from what happens overseas, as also illustrated by the fact local technology stocks have noticeably underperformed the Nasdaq over the past few months.

If 2022 follows the same pattern as back in 1994, investors will have to be patient, and endure a number of stomach-turning, volatile trading periods along the way. One year is nothing in the bigger scheme of things, but it can be a long time from within, hoping to see a quick end to it.

If inflation does not behave in line with worse case scenarios, forecasts like the one proffered by Goldman Sachs suggest we could well be in the eye of the storm during the opening months of 2022, and things might calm down, a lot, further into the year, and even accommodate sustainable investment returns.

The best recipe for markets that refuse to go anywhere remains, of course, dependable and reliable dividend payers that run no risk of having to cut or suspend their pay-outs.

Anno 2022, the risk for major dividend disappointments like we witnessed in 2019 and 2020 seems very low. From the banks, to Telstra, to most REITs and financials and retailers; most dividends look solid and secure, and the current reporting season is providing more evidence with every result release.

Depending on one's experience and risk appetite, some investors might try shorter-term oriented trading strategies. Though it's probably fair to say that if you haven't engaged in this type of market action, or it simply doesn't match your natural spirit, a healthy dose of caution remains warranted.

For most investors, patience in combination with cash on the sideline, that can be re-allocated in dribs and drabs, is probably the recommended course of action.

The local reporting season is still in its infancy, but most results are showing surprising resilience in the face of numerous challenges, and if it weren't for this year's overarching macro concerns and impacts, share prices would on average have responded much more positively.

This in itself can be taken as a positive for holding those companies in portfolio for when higher rates and bond yields are no longer an insurmountable headwind for equities.

Of course, inflation and bonds are not the only factors in play this year. Always good to keep in mind. And there's always the chance that central bankers take their actions a wee bit too far. I shall never forget the RBA was hiking interest rates in the middle of 2008 and the Fed later that year underestimated the fall-out from the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.

If you are truly worried about it, and not prepared to play the odds of a calculated risk, here's a quote from Wall Street legend Jesse Livermore:

"If you cannot sleep at night because of your stock market position, then you have gone too far. If this is the case, then sell your position down to the sleeping level".

For all others, I give you Peter Lynch: "Know what you own, and know why you own it".

The local reporting season is gradually warming up and on FNArena's assessment, more than half (52%) of reported results is beating analysts expectations, which is no mean feat in light of the tough and challenging conditions under which most are conducting their business.

But it remains way too early to draw firm conclusions just yet, and this goes for corporate health and profits, inflation, bonds and share market valuations, as well as the unpredictable situation in the Ukraine.

The sun doesn't always shine. Best to wear a raincoat then, or at least carry an umbrella.

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For more on the corporate results season, see FNArena's Daily Monitor: https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/

More predictions and assessments further below.

Last week's Weekly Insights: https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2022/02/10/rudis-view-february-results-macro-traps-and-opportunities/

The week before:

https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2022/02/03/rudis-view-february-looks-tricky/

The week before that:

https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2022/01/27/rudis-view-risks-to-consider/

My latest on All-Weather Stocks:

https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/2022/01/20/rudis-view-all-weather-stocks-some-answers/

February Reporting Season – Predictions & Forecasts

Two healthcare companies that are likely to report bumper results this month without getting rewarded for it, according to analysts at Jarden, are Healius ((HLS)) and Sonic Healthcare ((SHL)).

Both lab-owners have been enjoying extraordinary testing volumes due to the global pandemic, but any normalisation from here onwards should have a pronounced impact, at least on that particular part of the respective businesses.

Jarden thus believes investors are less interested in how well both companies have done out of significant volumes in PCR tests. The focus is now firmly on: how long still? Plus: how quickly will yesterday's boost dissipate?

The mere anticipation of lower testing volumes has already led to a downgrade in future profit forecasts by double digit percentages for the years ahead. Jarden also believes the market is switching away from covid-beneficiaries in favour of recovery trade opportunities.

Jarden rates Sonic Healthcare Neutral with a $37.18 price target while Healius has been downgraded to Neutral despite Jarden's price target of $5.57 indicating significant upside.

The broker is self-confident of the contradiction and explains it with a reference to the abovementioned switch on the back of changing earnings profiles. Market sentiment, indeed, can be all-overarching, until it's no longer.

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Rising real yields, whereby inflation adjusted yields are marked against listed government bonds, have shifted the market's focus to free cash flows and dividends, report analysts at Macquarie.

The suggestion made is that it is no longer sufficient to simply compare sales and earnings per share with analysts forecasts. From here onwards the level of free cash flows and dividend paid are carrying the label of most important items.

Within this framework, Macquarie observes about half of all industrial and resources companies that have reported up until Friday disappointed at the cash flow level, with the likes of Bapcor ((BAP)), Amcor ((AMC)), Cimic Group ((CIM)), Imdex ((IMD)) and GUD Holdings ((GUD)) not meeting free cash flow estimates.

Thus far, Mineral Resources ((MIN)) delivered one of the largest "misses" this season, and this includes the cash flow measure.

UBS strategist Richard Schellbach, on the other hand, observes corporate Australia, thus far, has surprised through resilient margins and indications of healthy growth in operations with supply chain bottlenecks dissolving, but the challenge to find and hire new staff remains.

Many companies have been reporting a noticeable uptick in their operations in the new calendar year, observes the UBS strategist. While these are all positives, the ability to restrain cost growth remains key with most disappointments caused by higher cost growth.

This time around, the banks live on the positive side of the ledger with CommBank ((CBA)) and National Australia Bank ((NAB)) in particular showing off a performance much better than market forecasts.

Keeping a lid on costs was only one ingredient in the mix. When it comes to awarding the gold medal, it is clear NAB's quarterly result was the best among peers. Some analyst reports post the release are using the term "impressive".

Analysts at JP Morgan/Ord Minnett will have their eyes peeled over financial results released by Telstra ((TLS)) and TPG Telecom ((TPG)) this season as recent updates by NBN Co indicate the local telecom sector is battling wholesale cost inflation in fixed consumer divisions.

Telecom colleagues at Credit Suisse have once again expressed their sector preference for Telstra, with Credit Suisse seeing potential for a higher dividend by FY24 (17c) and with the telco now reporting InfraCo Fixed as a separate unit.

At the smaller end, the broker highlights Aussie Broadband ((ABB)) as attractive post recent de-rating.

JP Morgan, however, remains of the view the telecom industry today is all about asset sales tomorrow.

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Mining services analysts at Jarden believe the biggest risk/reward potential this month resides with Emeco Holdings ((EHL)), followed by MacMahon Holdings ((MAH)), NRW Holdings ((NWH)), and only then the former star-performer in the sector, Monadelphous ((MND)).

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Macquarie sees downside risk to expectations for healthcare stocks Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)), Cochlear ((COH)) and both aged care service providers Estia Health ((EHE)) and Regis Healthcare ((REG)).

Positive risk (upside potential) has been attached to Sonic Healthcare's and CSL's ((CSL)) results releases.

Colleagues at the Technology desk are preparing for disappointing results this season; the broker reports its own aggregate forecasts for revenue and operational earnings (EBITDA) are positioned -5%-7% below market consensus. The largest gap between Macquarie's forecasts and consensus seems to be reserved for Appen ((APX)) and NextDC ((NXT)).

Macquarie holds Outperform ratings on both Megaport ((MP1)) and NextDC. While the former has already reported, Macquarie is cautious towards NextDC ahead of the upcoming result. But the broker remains positive regarding NextDC's longer-term growth potential.

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Real estate analysts at Citi suspect Charter Hall ((CHC)) might deliver a positive surprise this season, while Scentre Group ((SCG)) has been singled out for potential disappointment.

Conviction Calls

The duo of ASX software aficionados at Shaw and Partners has added Elmo Software ((ELO)) to the broker's list of sector Top Picks.

The other four names on the sector Top Picks list are Mach7 Technologies ((M7T)), Whispir ((WSP)), Gentrack Group ((GTK)), and Keypath Education International ((KED)).

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Analysts at Jarden covering consumer spending oriented companies recently expressed their positive view for Metcash ((MTS)), Lynch Group ((LGL)), Beacon Lighting ((BLX)), Woolworths ((WOW)), Adairs ((ADH)) and Kathmandu ((KMD)).

The team holds a negative view for JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)), Harvey Norman ((HVN)), Endeavour Group ((EDV)), and Super Retail ((SUL)).

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Macquarie's healthcare sector favourites are CSL, ResMed ((RMD)), Healius, Virtus Health ((VRT)), and Monash IVF Group ((MVF)).

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The Star Entertainment Group ((SGR)) remains Goldman Sachs' sector favourite among local gaming companies.

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Morgan Stanley's Australia Macro+ Focus List currently consists of the following ten: ANZ Bank ((ANZ)), Santos ((STO)), Computershare ((CPU)), Goodman Group ((GMG)), Macquarie Group ((MQG)), Orica ((ORI)), Qantas ((QAN)), QBE Insurance ((QBE)), REA Group ((REA)), and Telstra ((TLS)).

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Wilsons' Conviction Calls now include plus-size omni-channel fashion retailer City Chic ((CCX)), alongside ARB Corp ((ARB)), Collins Foods ((CFK)), Aroa Biosurgey ((ARX)), Immutep ((IMM)), ReadyTech ((RDY)), and Plenti ((PLT)).

FNArena Talks

Pre-season video interview with James Marlay at Livewire Markets:

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/why-rudi-cashed-up-and-seven-shares-on-his-watchlist

Is also available via YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGkj1rWuego

(This story was written on Monday 14th February, 2022. It was published on the day in the form of an email to paying subscribers, and again on Thursday as a story on the website).

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views are mine and not by association FNArena's – see disclaimer on the website.

In addition, since FNArena runs a Model Portfolio based upon my research on All-Weather Performers it is more than likely that stocks mentioned are included in this Model Portfolio. For all questions about this: info@fnarena.com or via the direct messaging system on the website).

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BONUS PUBLICATIONS FOR FNARENA SUBSCRIBERS

Paid subscribers to FNArena (6 and 12 mnths) receive several bonus publications, at no extra cost, including:

– The AUD and the Australian Share Market (which stocks benefit from a weaker AUD, and which ones don't?)
– Make Risk Your Friend. Finding All-Weather Performers, January 2013 (The rationale behind investing in stocks that perform irrespective of the overall investment climate)
– Make Risk Your Friend. Finding All-Weather Performers, December 2014 (The follow-up that accounts for an ever changing world and updated stock selection)
– Change. Investing in a Low Growth World. eBook that sells through Amazon and other channels. Tackles the main issues impacting on investment strategies today and the world of tomorrow.
– Who's Afraid Of The Big Bad Bear? eBook and Book (print) available through Amazon and other channels. Your chance to relive 2016, and become a wiser investor along the way.

Subscriptions cost $450 (incl GST) for twelve months or $250 for six and can be purchased here (depending on your status, a subscription to FNArena might be tax deductible): https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/sign-up/

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CHARTS

ABB ADH AMC ANZ APX ARB ARX BAP BLX CBA CCX CHC CIM COH CPU CSL EDV EHE EHL ELO GMG GTK GUD HLS HVN IMD IMM JBH KED KMD LGL M7T MAH MIN MND MP1 MQG MTS MVF NAB NWH NXT ORI PLT QAN QBE RDY REA REG RHC RMD SCG SGR SHL STO SUL TLS TPG VRT WOW WSP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABB - AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED

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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CHC - CHARTER HALL GROUP

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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: M7T - MACH7 TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MIN - MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

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