article 3 months old

The Overnight Report: Coming To A Halt

Daily Market Reports | Feb 07 2019

World Overnight
SPI Overnight (Mar) 5988.00 + 18.00 0.30%
S&P ASX 200 6026.10 + 20.20 0.34%
S&P500 2731.61 – 6.09 – 0.22%
Nasdaq Comp 7375.28 – 26.80 – 0.36%
DJIA 25390.30 – 21.22 – 0.08%
S&P500 VIX 15.38 – 0.19 – 1.22%
US 10-year yield 2.70 0.00 0.00%
USD Index 96.38 + 0.31 0.32%
FTSE100 7173.09 – 4.28 – 0.06%
DAX30 11324.72 – 43.26 – 0.38%

By Greg Peel

The Day After

Looking forward, there are scenarios where the next move in the cash rate is up and other scenarios where it is down. Over the past year, the next-move-is-up scenarios were more likely than the next-move-is-down scenarios. Today, the probabilities appear to be more evenly balanced.”

So said RBA governor Philip Lowe at the National Press Club yesterday, thereby announcing a shift in policy from a tightening bias (“the next move will likely be up”) to a neutral stance (“evenly balanced”). On that note, the Aussie is down -1.6%. When the RBA didn’t cut its cash rate on Tuesday, the Aussie jumped to US$0.7260. Now it’s at US$0.7118.

The day after the Hayne report response proved to be yet another positive one overall for the market, with a couple of obvious exceptions. Most notable was the financials sector, which fell -0.6%. Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) posted a slight miss on earnings yesterday, but after Tuesday’s effort, a bit of profit-taking was pretty much a given for the sector.

CSL ((CSL)) seems to be a bit septic at present, and appears perhaps to be one stock investors are selling out of to return to the banks. There was also a downgrade by Credit Suisse to Neutral. Healthcare fell -0.9%.

Utilities fell -0.5%. That one’s got me stumped. It wasn’t AGL Energy. Utilities are beneficiaries of a lower interest rate scenario so someone in there must have had a bad day.

Sydney Airport ((SYD)) on the other hand, had a good day, rising 4.3% on a regulatory win. Industrials were the best performers yesterday with a 2.1% gain, not counting IT (2.3%).

Vale has declared force majeur, so iron ore producers just keep on rising. Materials were up 1.2%. The big fall in the Aussie is also a plus for exporters.

And I noted yesterday that consumer discretionary had had a good session despite weak retail sales data. Yesterday that sector jumped 1.4%. Nothing like talk of a rate cut to get consumers excited.

The biggest individual stock move on the day was Viva Energy Group ((VEA)), which jumped 13.8% after signing a deal with Coles ((COL)).

As the dust settles on bank-land, the mood is definitely a more positive one on the local market. The ASX200 is back over 6000, up over 500 points from Christmas. The economy is not looking so flash, but then Phil’s got our back. So all is good.

Until the election.

State of Not Much

President Trump’s much anticipated State of the Union address was a bit of a fizzer, offering scant economic detail.

Trump did insist that China would have to commit to real structural reforms before a trade deal can be reached, but that reflects no change in rhetoric. He reiterated an infrastructure plan, but this time put no price on it. He vowed he was still going to build his Wall, but stopped short of suggesting emergency powers would be enacted, hence it appears like another shutdown is forthcoming but it’s not entirely clear.

The Dow futures moved very little post address, and Wall Street overall did much the same last night. The Dow was down -100 points early on and the S&P500 fell back from the sight of its 200-day moving average, as could have been expected, although did recover some of that loss by the close.

The US trade deficit receded in December from its 10-year record high in November. The fall was due to a drop in imports, attributed to a pullback from the rush in November to get in ahead of the latest round of tariffs but also on lower oil imports. The specific deficit with China also receded slightly due to a drop in imports.

The trade deficit for the period January-November 2018 was 10% higher than that same period in 2017, despite tariffs being imposed in 2018.

Earnings were again in the frame, with last night’s winner being Snap Inc, of Snapchat fame, which jumped 22% on record quarterly revenue. Never mind that the stock is down -62% since listing two years ago.

Earnings notwithstanding, Wall Street appears now in a consolidation phase, with that S&P 200-day offering resistance and a trade deal the source of anticipation. The March 1 deadline is looming.

The Brexit deadline is also looming. Stock up on your Spam.

Commodities

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz) 1306.50 – 7.50 – 0.57%
Silver (oz) 15.64 – 0.18 – 1.14%
Copper (lb) 2.81 + 0.01 0.36%
Aluminium (lb) 0.85 – 0.01 – 1.14%
Lead (lb) 0.94 – 0.01 – 0.98%
Nickel (lb) 5.84 + 0.06 1.06%
Zinc (lb) 1.23 – 0.01 – 0.94%
West Texas Crude (Feb) 53.99 + 0.24 0.45%
Brent Crude (Apr) 62.65 + 0.63 1.02%
Iron Ore (t) futures 86.65 0.00 0.00%

Despite Vale announcing force majeur, the iron ore price is again unmoved with China absent. Nickel is up another 1% nevertheless, in the face of a 0.3% gain for the US dollar.

The dollar rise has taken a bit of wind out of the gold price rally.

Oil prices rose on the weekly US inventory lottery.

The Aussie is toast.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 18 points. Still a feeling of exuberance.

Australia’s construction PMI is out today which is not usually a market-mover, but with the infra build going on around the country, countered by plunging housing construction, it might be interesting.

The Bank of England meets tonight and clearly can’t do a damned thing.

Today’s earnings result releases include those of AGL Energy ((AGL)), Downer EDI ((DOW)) and Mirvac Group ((MGR)). See calendar for more.

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
AFG AUSTRALIAN FINANCE Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
AHY ASALEO CARE Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
CSL CSL Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
CVW CLEARVIEW WEALTH Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
EVN EVOLUTION MINING Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
FMG FORTESCUE Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight Morgan Stanley
GUD G.U.D. HOLDINGS Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
HT1 HT&E LTD Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
IAG INSURANCE AUSTRALIA Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
NVX NOVONIX Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
OGC OCEANAGOLD Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
RIO RIO TINTO Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
SIQ SMARTGROUP Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
SYD SYDNEY AIRPORT Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
TCL TRANSURBAN GROUP Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
TNE TECHNOLOGYONE Downgrade to Hold from Buy Ord Minnett

For more detail go to FNArena's Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's – see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts on the website and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedIn

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms

CHARTS

AGL CBA COL CSL DOW MGR SYD VEA