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Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes

Weekly Reports | Dec 12 2016

This story features ALUMINA LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AWC

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday December 5 to Friday December 9, 2016
Total Upgrades: 29
Total Downgrades: 13
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 43.73%; Hold 42.14%; Sell 14.13%

This doesn't happen often. The share market continues to ignore technical overbought signals, by going up, up, and further up, and stockbroking analysts are issuing ever more upgrades for recommendations on individual stocks.

The world upside down? Probably more a sign that not every stock and sector is fully participating in this year's end-of-year buoyancy.

For the week ending December 9, 2017, FNArena registered 29 upgrades versus 13 downgrades.

The composition of the group receiving upgrades shows the underlying theme is not black and white, with the inclusion of mining companies Alumina Ltd, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto (2x) and a whole bunch of gold miners. One clear theme is former market darling industrials whose share price has not followed the broader market trend recently; Bapcor, Carsales, CSL, REA Group, etc – they're all included.

On the downgrade side of the ledger, the focus is more with corporate disappointments. Think Bellamy's, and Origin Energy (4x downgrades), OrotonGroup and Platinum Asset Management, alongside a few mining companies.

In terms of total Buy and Hold ratings for all eight stockbrokers monitored daily by FNArena, the Buys are holding a clear lead commanding 43.73% of all recommendations versus 42.14% for the Neutral/Holds. Traditionally this signals a tough time for the share market, which could be a warning signal about red hot running blind sentiment, but it is likely a mirror for how narrow the group of real winners is in this rally.

With commodities analysts updating their estimates and outlooks for the year ahead, it should be no surprise the table for positive revisions to price targets has become a near exclusive domain for resources stocks. REA Group is the sole exception on spot ten this week. Fortescue Metals (+16.30%) leads the pack, followed by Rio Tinto, Whitehaven Coal and more brethren from the resources segment.

Bellamy's "shines" on the negative side with a fall of -57% in consensus price target, followed by Bapcor (-6.77%), St Barbara (-3.16%) and Platinum Asset Management (-2.35%).

The table for positive revisions offers the same ingredients as the one for price targets: miners, more miners, and one agri-stock (Graincorp). On the flipside, Bellamy's (-46%) was beaten by gold miner Perseus (-118%) for the wooden spoon. Other companies suffering notable reductions to estimates include Virgin Australia, Virtus Health and Insurance Australia Group, amidst a handful of gold miners.

Upgrade

ALUMINA LIMITED ((AWC)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/3

Ord Minnett has increased its forecasts for coal, iron ore and copper, while downgrading near-term gold price forecasts. The broker also raises forecasts for alumina. Spot alumina continues to look strong at US$325/t and presents upside potential to the broker's earnings estimates.

The broker upgrades AWC to Accumulate from Hold and raises the target to $1.80 from $1.60. The upgrade is driven by a higher valuation and strong forecasts for free cash flow.

BAPCOR LIMITED ((BAP)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS and Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/1/0

The company has lifted its offer for Hellaby Holdings, to NZ $3.60, which is at the lower end of the independent expert's valuation range.

The board has stated it will not recommend the offer unless a dividend is paid, making use of its imputation credits.

Regardless of whether the board endorses the offer, UBS believes it highly likely that Bapcor will attain at least a majority ownership. Given this likelihood the broker incorporates the business into forecasts.

UBS notes the company is long on growth options and pricing is attractive and upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $6.85 from $6.30.

The company has increased its takeover bid for Hellaby to NZ$3.60 and received irrevocable shareholder acceptances representing 40% of issued capital.

Morgans now factors in the acquisition, but notes there is some risk to Bapcor gaining full control.The broker acknowledges the company has been particularly accretive in recent years, which brings higher integration risk.

Nonetheless, the broker believes the deal stacks up from an accretion perspective. Morgans upgrades to Add from Hold and reduces the target to $5.75 from $6.36.

BEADELL RESOURCES LIMITED ((BDR)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/0/1

Citi commodities analysts have changed their view on commodities, now expecting 2016's momentum is likely to remain the dominant theme for 2017 and 2018. The analysts remain bearish on bulk commodities whose rallies are labeled "a fluke" on the back of China changing its policies.

Price estimates have all gone up. For gold producers in particular, the combination of flat prices in AUD and a pull back in share prices has inspired to upgrades. Rating moved to Buy/High Risk from Neutral.

BHP BILLITON LIMITED ((BHP)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 2/6/0

Citi commodities analysts have changed their view on commodities, now expecting 2016's momentum is likely to remain the dominant theme for 2017 and 2018. The analysts remain bearish on bulk commodities whose rallies are labeled "a fluke" on the back of China changing its policies.

Price estimates have all gone up. BHP has been upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

See also BHP downgrade.

CARSALES.COM LIMITED ((CAR)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 6/2/0

UBS upgrades to Neutral from Sell without accompanying commentary. Target is $10.50.

DUET GROUP ((DUE)) Upgrade to Hold from Reduce by Morgans and Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/5/0

The company has confirmed that it is considering a takeover bid from Cheung Kong Infrastructure. Given the corporate activity, Morgans lifts its rating to Hold from Reduce.

The broker does not factor corporate activity into the target, including the takeover premium that the company may be willing to pay to gain control of the stock.The broker sets the target at the indicative bid price of $3.00.

Cheung Kong may be attracted to the yield but also could merge its Victorian distribution networks with DUET networks, the broker observes. Morgans expects cash flow supporting the distribution to materially fall away early next decade.

The company has confirmed a non-binding offer of $3.00 from Cheung Kong infrastructure. Credit Suisse observes the bid price is in line with the upper end of recent transactions in NSW for Transgrid and Ausgrid.

The high initial offer reduces the likelihood of a counter bid. The broker acknowledges some uncertainty regarding approval by the Foreign Investment Review Board.

Credit Suisse upgrades to Neutral from Underperform and raises the target to $2.80 from $2.30.

EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 7/0/0

Citi commodities analysts have changed their view on commodities, now expecting 2016's momentum is likely to remain the dominant theme for 2017 and 2018. The analysts remain bearish on bulk commodities whose rallies are labeled "a fluke" on the back of China changing its policies.

Price estimates have all gone up. For gold producers in particular, the combination of flat prices in AUD and a pull back in share prices has inspired to upgrades. Rating moved to Buy/High Risk from Neutral.

FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD ((FMG)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 2/4/1

Citi commodities analysts have changed their view on commodities, now expecting 2016's momentum is likely to remain the dominant theme for 2017 and 2018. The analysts remain bearish on bulk commodities whose rallies are labeled "a fluke" on the back of China changing its policies.

Price estimates have all gone up. Fortescue has been upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

GRAINCORP LIMITED ((GNC)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/3/0

A strong crop season and the latest receivables data suggest that the company is catching up after a delayed start to harvest and Macquarie lifts its forecast for FY17 receivables to 11.2mt and also raises export expectations to 5mt.

The broker also removes the overhang from ADM's sell down of its stake and transfers coverage to another analyst. FY17 and FY18 earnings per share estimates are raised by 14% and 4% respectively.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. The target is raised to $9.75 from $9.00..

INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL ((IGO)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 1/4/1

Citi commodities analysts have changed their view on commodities, now expecting 2016's momentum is likely to remain the dominant theme for 2017 and 2018. The analysts remain bearish on bulk commodities whose rallies are labeled "a fluke" on the back of China changing its policies.

Price estimates have all gone up. For gold producers in particular, the combination of flat prices in AUD and a pull back in share prices has inspired to upgrades. Rating moved to Neutral from Sell.

JB HI-FI LIMITED ((JBH)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Citi analysts ask the question: Is JB Hi-Fi's sales growth sustainable? The combination of anticipated slowing in sales growth and the incorporation of The Good Guys only results in minor increases to estimates.

Luckily the shares are trading at a discount vis-a-vis the broader market ex-resources, and below the price target (unchanged at $27.20), so Citi analysts still upgrade to Neutral from Sell.

Bottom line: JB Hi-Fi is expected to outperform a market (consumer electronics) that is facing headwinds, in the analysts' view.

JAPARA HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((JHC)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/1/1

After reviewing the aged care sector Macquarie upgrades Japara to Outperform from Neutral. Target is $2.50.

The broker believes the company is well placed for the uncertainty inherent in all the regulatory environment, with more conservative gearing levels and more generous staff costs per place.

The broker expects the tight funding environment will restrict earnings growth from places, which increases the importance of portfolio growth.

See also JHC downgrade.

NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED ((NHC)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/2/0

Credit Suisse updates its commodity price forecasts for 2017, upgrading iron ore, thermal coal and copper prices by 22%, 25% and 23% respectively.

While China has pushed up the price of thermal coal recently, a policy reversal is expected to lift local supply and cool prices into 2017.

Given recent developments with the new Queensland water legislation, the broker again defers the inclusion of the expansion of New  Acland mine and assumes a 12-month hiatus between depletion of stage 2 and the commencement of stage 3.

Rating is upgraded to Neutral  from Underperform. Target is steady at $1.75.

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD ((NST)) Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Credit Suisse observes the company's exceptional returns have been extracted from low-cost operating practice, an elevated Australian dollar gold price, and disciplined acquisitions.

The broker upgrades to Outperform from Underperform, a valuation-based call given recent share price declines. Target is reduced to $4.10 from $4.20.

REA GROUP LIMITED ((REA)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 6/1/0

UBS suspects investors may not fully appreciate the potential for Australian residential revenue to re-accelerate in FY18, even without a rebound in volumes.

If the companies in Australia's media sector could replicate their domestic models overseas, the broker believes the upside would be material. However, market structures are also less favourable and competition is fiercer.

The broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral and raises the target to $56 from $52..

RIO TINTO LIMITED ((RIO)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse and Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 6/2/0

Credit Suisse updates its commodity price forecasts for 2017, upgrading iron ore, thermal coal and copper prices by 22%, 25% and 23% respectively.

Rio Tinto has recently revised the capital expenditure guidance and committed to a further US$5bn of free cash flow in productivity improvements over five years. The company has promised a minimum 2016 dividend of US$1.10 and the broker assumes US$1.50.

Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and raises its target to $70 from $50.

Citi commodities analysts have changed their view on commodities, now expecting 2016's momentum is likely to remain the dominant theme for 2017 and 2018. The analysts remain bearish on bulk commodities whose rallies are labeled "a fluke" on the back of China changing its policies.

Price estimates have all gone up. Rio Tinto has been upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse and Upgrade to Buy from Sell by UBS and Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/3/1

Credit Suisse observes management understands well its prospective ground at Duketon, and the operation has become a robust, cash generating project.

Reliable commercial outcomes that are readily developed and quickly converted to cash flow are being delivered, the broker notes.

The broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform on the back of share price declines. Target is reduced to $2.80 from $2.95.

UBS trims 2017 gold price forecasts to US$1350//oz and remains bullish on gold. The broker notes it was a volatile year for the company and remains drawn to the stock, although a premium valuation versus peers was always difficult to appreciate.

Nevertheless, with the share price pulling back and organic growth options turning into production growth, as well as a strong balance sheet, the broker expects investor interest  to remain high.  Rating is upgraded to Buy from Sell. Target is reduced to $3.08 from $3.10.

Citi commodities analysts have changed their view on commodities, now expecting 2016's momentum is likely to remain the dominant theme for 2017 and 2018. The analysts remain bearish on bulk commodities whose rallies are labeled "a fluke" on the back of China changing its policies.

Price estimates have all gone up. For gold producers in particular, the combination of flat prices in AUD and a pull back in share prices has inspired to upgrades. Rating moved to Buy from Neutral.

RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED ((RSG)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Citi commodities analysts have changed their view on commodities, now expecting 2016's momentum is likely to remain the dominant theme for 2017 and 2018. The analysts remain bearish on bulk commodities whose rallies are labeled "a fluke" on the back of China changing its policies.

Price estimates have all gone up. For gold producers in particular, the combination of flat prices in AUD and a pull back in share prices has inspired to upgrades. Rating moved to Buy/High Risk from Neutral.

SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Citi commodities analysts have changed their view on commodities, now expecting 2016's momentum is likely to remain the dominant theme for 2017 and 2018. The analysts remain bearish on bulk commodities whose rallies are labeled "a fluke" on the back of China changing its policies.

Price estimates have all gone up. South32 has received a double-whammy upgrade to Buy from Sell.

SARACEN MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED ((SAR)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Drilling at Thunderbox and Carosue Dam continue to return positive results, Macquarie notes. Confirmation of thick mineralisation at Thunderbox is particularly encouraging as it supports the broker's assumption of an underground operation down the track.

This confirmation, and Saracen's recent share price fall, leads Macquarie to upgrade to Outperform. Target unchanged at $1.30.

ST BARBARA LIMITED ((SBM)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/0/0

Credit Suisse considers the company's operational and financial turnaround has been stunning. Free cash generation from the maturing Gwalia asset has been maximised and the life of the operation has been extended.

The challenge is now to replace the short life Simberi asset with a value-adding acquisition. Credit Suisse removes the Simberi sulphide contribution from forecasts, with the recent strategic review indicating there are no plans to develop the project and no willing buyers in the current climate.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral on the share price decline. Target is reduced to $2.60 from $2.90.

SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL ((SFR)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 5/2/1

Citi commodities analysts have changed their view on commodities, now expecting 2016's momentum is likely to remain the dominant theme for 2017 and 2018. The analysts remain bearish on bulk commodities whose rallies are labeled "a fluke" on the back of China changing its policies.

Price estimates have all gone up. For gold producers in particular, the combination of flat prices in AUD and a pull back in share prices has inspired to upgrades. Rating moved to Buy/High Risk from Neutral.

WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by Citi and Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/3/1

Citi commodities analysts have changed their view on commodities, now expecting 2016's momentum is likely to remain the dominant theme for 2017 and 2018. The analysts remain bearish on bulk commodities whose rallies are labeled "a fluke" on the back of China changing its policies.

Price estimates have all gone up. Whitehaven Coal has received a double-whammy upgrade to Buy from Sell.

Ord Minnett has increased its forecasts for coal, iron ore and copper, while downgrading near-term gold price forecasts. The broker upgrades Whitehaven Coal to Accumulate from Hold and the target to $3.30 from $3.00.

The upgrade is driven by a higher valuation and a strong free cash flow forecast.  Ord Minnett recognises it is late in its call but estimates the stock will be net cash within a year.

Downgrade

BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((BAL)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/2/1

The company's trading update and FY17 guidance were well below estimates. Morgans downgrades FY17 and FY18 net profit forecasts by 45% and 55% respectively.

The company's second quarter has not been as strong as expected. The company is also being affected by regulatory changes in China which is causing brands which won't meet the December 31 2017 CFDA approval deadline to heavily discount their excess stock.

Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add and reduces the target to $7.55 from $16.65.

Revenue for the year to November 20 2016 is up 24% which compares with Ord Minnett's FY17 estimate of up 59.3%. FY17 EBIT margins are now expected to be below 20%, depending on the sales channel mix.

With momentum materially slowing, market dislocation from regulatory changes, and the stock trading on FY17 price/earnings ratio of 20x post the downgrade, the broker lowers its recommendation to Hold from Buy. Target is reduced to $7.26 from $20.00.

BHP BILLITON LIMITED ((BHP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/6/0

Credit Suisse updates its commodity price forecasts for 2017, upgrading iron ore, thermal coal and copper prices by 22%, 25% and 23% respectively.

Underlying EBITDA is revised up 33% and 35% in FY17 and FY18 respectively. The broker notes BHP has been widely criticised for under investing in its conventional oil business but has now sanctioned the Mad Dog 2 expansion and first oil is expected in 2023. The company is also the winning bidder for 60% of the block containing the Trion discovery in the Gulf of Mexico.

The stock has outperformed the Australian market by 37% in the past year and is now at around fair value, in the broker's opinion. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $26.50 from $24.00.

See also BHP upgrade.

DOWNER EDI LIMITED ((DOW)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/3/1

The company has been awarded the Sydney growth trains contract. The $1.7bn contract follows the contractual close on the Victorian government's $2bn high-capacity metro trains project.

Credit Suisse takes the opportunity to review its assumptions, noting  the company has positioned itself to diversify away from the challenged mining and engineering construction sectors. Over 55% of revenue is now generated from servicing public infrastructure customers in Australasia.

Despite raising the target to $5.30 from $4.70, the broker downgrades to Underperform from Neutral, as the business needs to prove its earnings now that it is trading almost on a market multiple where earnings estimates for FY19 will be roughly flat versus FY16.

JAPARA HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((JHC)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/1/1

Given the rally in the company's share price, Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add.

After a period of uncertainty, the broker notes the industry and the government have reached a broad agreement with some of the measures outlined in the FY16 budget regarding funding cuts being moderated.

The broker remains comfortable that current forecasts reflect the new arrangements. The target is unchanged at $2.47.

See also JHC upgrade.

ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED ((ORG)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans and Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett and Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 1/5/1

With the intention of fast tracking the de-gearing of its balance sheet, the company is preparing to spin off its conventional upstream oil & gas assets via an IPO.

Morgans values the combined assets at  $1.5-1.7bn,  Although recognises that the debt load, corporate costs and offtake contracts will have an impact.

After recent share price strength, the broker downgrades to Hold from Add. Target is steady at $6.40.

The company's intention to spin out its conventional petroleum business via an IPO partially addresses Ord Minnett's immediate concerns regarding the balance sheet.

While the sale proceeds could net as much as $3bn, the downside, the broker envisages, is that it removes the natural hedge for the gas retailing business. It also remains to be seen what contractual or other arrangements the company can make.

The recent run-up in the share price has led the broker to reduce its rating to Hold from Accumulate. Target is steady at $6.60.

The company has announced plans for an IPO of its conventional upstream assets. Credit Suisse believes this is strategically, and financially, the right thing to do. That said, the broker is baffled by a decision to sell to the equity market versus a trade sale.

The broker carries a value of $1.4bn for the assets noting that this is inclusive of the $350m in hedging cost. This does not include remediation or corporate costs, which are either not disclosed or unknown, and both will reduce the net present value.

Credit Suisse downgrades to Underperform from Neutral, reluctantly, but notes the valuation is hard to measure and an IPO is unlikely to be materially accretive to value. While the company will be a more investable business after this IPO, the broker believes the starting point share price is wrong. Target is steady at $5.40.

Citi has lifted its price target to $6.95 from $6.61 on the news Origin is looking to spin off its conventional oil assets through an IPO, while pulling back the rating to Neutral from Buy.

The analysts think the initiative is "OK", but not game changing. Debt will be reduced and the spin-off requires board approval without shareholders having their say, note the analysts.

Also, the analysts observe AGL Energy ((AGL)) is currently trading at a comparable premium, but this seems justified, in their opinion, because AGL has a stronger growth outlook and a stronger balance sheet, even after the planned divestment. Citi thinks a meaningful multiple re-rating for Origin may take several years.

OROTONGROUP LIMITED ((ORL)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 0/0/1

Citi has downgraded to Sell from Neutral, while reducing forecasts and pulling back the price target to $2.05 from $2.40. Clearly, Oroton's trading update did not meet expectations.

Citi analysts observe the majority of weakness in sales was driven by the core handbag category and the exit of categories such as apparel, footwear and lingerie. Factory stores are under pressure from international competitors, they add.

PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((PTM)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/1/3

Ord Minnett has double-downgraded Platinum Asset Management to Sell from Hold. Apart from recent net funds outflows, the analysts are referring to increased competition for retail funds from the likes of Hyperion, Magellan ((MFG)) and ex-Platinum PM run, Antipodes.

As a result, Ord Minnett thinks the outlook remains challenging. The analysts have reduced estimates. The 10% buyback should provide some downward protection, the analysts acknowledge, but at what share price level exactly? Target drops to $4.69 from $5.09.

REGIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((REG)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/2/0

The government and the aged care industry have found some compromises to ensure that funding is better targeted to residents with the highest care needs. The company has re-confirmed FY17 EBITDA guidance of 15% growth.

Morgans makes no changes to forecasts but adjusts its target down to $5.02 from $5.13. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Add given the rally in the share price.

WESTERN AREAS NL ((WSA)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/1/3

Nickel prices have risen strongly on the back of supply restrictions. Nickel in stainless steel had also been stronger than expected. Credit Suisse maintains its price forecasts at US$5/lb in the first half of 2017 and at US$5.50/lb in the second half, increasing to US$6/lb in 2018.

The broker notes Western Areas has now completed a favourable offtake tender process, which will result in a greater return from nickel produced in concentrate versus the contracts that are due to expire in January 31, 2017.

As the shares have rallied 60% since the beginning of the year, the stock has become less attractive and the broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target rises to $3.25 from $3.00.

 

Total Recommendations
Recommendation Changes

 

Broker Recommendation Breakup

 

Broker Rating

 

Order Company New Rating Old Rating Broker
Upgrade
1 ALUMINA LIMITED Buy Neutral Ord Minnett
2 BAPCOR LIMITED Buy Buy Morgans
3 BAPCOR LIMITED Buy Neutral UBS
4 BEADELL RESOURCES LIMITED Buy Neutral Citi
5 BHP BILLITON LIMITED Neutral Sell Citi
6 CARSALES.COM LIMITED Neutral Sell UBS
7 DUET GROUP Neutral Sell Morgans
8 DUET GROUP Neutral Sell Credit Suisse
9 EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED Buy Neutral Citi
10 FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD Neutral Sell Citi
11 GRAINCORP LIMITED Buy Neutral Macquarie
12 INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL Neutral Sell Citi
13 JAPARA HEALTHCARE LIMITED Buy Neutral Macquarie
14 JB HI-FI LIMITED Neutral Sell Citi
15 NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED Neutral Sell Credit Suisse
16 NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD Buy Sell Credit Suisse
17 REA GROUP LIMITED Buy Neutral UBS
18 REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED Buy Neutral Citi
19 REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED Buy Sell UBS
20 REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED Neutral Sell Credit Suisse
21 RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED Buy Neutral Citi
22 RIO TINTO LIMITED Neutral Sell Citi
23 RIO TINTO LIMITED Buy Neutral Credit Suisse
24 SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL Buy Neutral Citi
25 SARACEN MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED Buy Neutral Macquarie
26 SOUTH32 LIMITED Buy Sell Citi
27 ST BARBARA LIMITED Buy Neutral Credit Suisse
28 WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED Buy Sell Citi
29 WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED Buy Neutral Ord Minnett
Downgrade
30 BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA LIMITED Neutral Buy Morgans
31 BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA LIMITED Neutral Buy Ord Minnett
32 BHP BILLITON LIMITED Neutral Buy Credit Suisse
33 DOWNER EDI LIMITED Sell Neutral Credit Suisse
34 JAPARA HEALTHCARE LIMITED Neutral Buy Morgans
35 ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED Neutral Buy Morgans
36 ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED Neutral Buy Citi
37 ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED Sell Neutral Credit Suisse
38 ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED Neutral Buy Ord Minnett
39 OROTONGROUP LIMITED Sell Neutral Citi
40 PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED Sell Neutral Ord Minnett
41 REGIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED Neutral Buy Morgans
42 WESTERN AREAS NL Neutral Buy Credit Suisse

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Rating Previous Rating Change Recs
1 RRL REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED 31.0% -19.0% 50.0% 8
2 WHC WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED 31.0% -13.0% 44.0% 8
3 NST NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD 60.0% 20.0% 40.0% 5
4 SBM ST BARBARA LIMITED 100.0% 67.0% 33.0% 3
5 S32 SOUTH32 LIMITED 43.0% 14.0% 29.0% 7
6 RIO RIO TINTO LIMITED 69.0% 44.0% 25.0% 8
7 BAP BAPCOR LIMITED 75.0% 50.0% 25.0% 4
8 REA REA GROUP LIMITED 86.0% 63.0% 23.0% 7
9 TGR TASSAL GROUP LIMITED 50.0% 33.0% 17.0% 4
10 GNC GRAINCORP LIMITED 50.0% 33.0% 17.0% 6

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Rating Previous Rating Change Recs
1 BAL BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA LIMITED -33.0% 33.0% -66.0% 3
2 REG REGIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED 33.0% 67.0% -34.0% 3
3 PTM PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED -75.0% -50.0% -25.0% 4
4 DOW DOWNER EDI LIMITED 17.0% 33.0% -16.0% 6
5 TCL TRANSURBAN GROUP 57.0% 71.0% -14.0% 7
6 WSA WESTERN AREAS NL -21.0% -7.0% -14.0% 7
7 AWC ALUMINA LIMITED -36.0% -29.0% -7.0% 7
8 FXJ FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED 33.0% 36.0% -3.0% 6

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs
1 FMG FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD 5.857 5.036 16.30% 7
2 RIO RIO TINTO LIMITED 64.689 58.728 10.15% 8
3 WHC WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED 3.155 2.911 8.38% 8
4 AWC ALUMINA LIMITED 1.536 1.436 6.96% 7
5 DOW DOWNER EDI LIMITED 5.422 5.088 6.56% 6
6 SFR SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL 6.176 5.820 6.12% 8
7 S32 SOUTH32 LIMITED 2.848 2.691 5.83% 7
8 GNC GRAINCORP LIMITED 9.605 9.123 5.28% 6
9 WSA WESTERN AREAS NL 2.643 2.551 3.61% 7
10 REA REA GROUP LIMITED 58.870 57.536 2.32% 7

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs
1 BAL BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA LIMITED 6.937 16.250 -57.31% 3
2 BAP BAPCOR LIMITED 6.060 6.500 -6.77% 4
3 SBM ST BARBARA LIMITED 3.067 3.167 -3.16% 3
4 PTM PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED 4.773 4.888 -2.35% 4
5 EVN EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED 2.571 2.603 -1.23% 7
6 TCL TRANSURBAN GROUP 11.689 11.794 -0.89% 7
7 REG REGIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED 4.657 4.693 -0.77% 3
8 RRL REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED 3.193 3.215 -0.68% 8
9 TGR TASSAL GROUP LIMITED 4.405 4.423 -0.41% 4

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs
1 WSA WESTERN AREAS NL 0.987 -0.856 215.30% 7
2 MGX MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED 1.133 0.800 41.63% 3
3 S32 SOUTH32 LIMITED 24.518 17.726 38.32% 7
4 SFR SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL 39.438 32.535 21.22% 8
5 BHP BHP BILLITON LIMITED 138.458 114.516 20.91% 8
6 FMG FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD 61.027 51.551 18.38% 7
7 WHC WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED 33.683 28.876 16.65% 8
8 GNC GRAINCORP LIMITED 54.985 48.567 13.21% 6
9 AWC ALUMINA LIMITED 4.954 4.394 12.74% 7
10 OZL OZ MINERALS LIMITED 38.438 36.645 4.89% 8

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs
1 PRU PERSEUS MINING LIMITED -1.550 -0.710 -118.31% 5
2 BAL BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA LIMITED 32.367 60.967 -46.91% 3
3 VAH VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED 0.551 0.714 -22.83% 7
4 AQG ALACER GOLD CORP 10.903 12.643 -13.76% 5
5 NCM NEWCREST MINING LIMITED 86.324 91.658 -5.82% 8
6 SBM ST BARBARA LIMITED 30.480 32.247 -5.48% 3
7 VRT VIRTUS HEALTH LIMITED 42.150 44.450 -5.17% 4
8 RRL REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED 26.696 27.618 -3.34% 8
9 IAG INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED 33.175 34.300 -3.28% 8
10 NST NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD 38.504 39.758 -3.15% 5

Technical limitations

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CHARTS

AGL AWC BAP BHP CAR DOW EVN FMG GNC IGO JBH JHC MFG NHC NST ORG PTM REA REG RIO RRL RSG S32 SBM SFR WHC WSA

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AGL - AGL ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AWC - ALUMINA LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BAP - BAPCOR LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BHP - BHP GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CAR - CARSALES.COM LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DOW - DOWNER EDI LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EVN - EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FMG - FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GNC - GRAINCORP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IGO - IGO LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JBH - JB HI-FI LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JHC - JAPARA HEALTHCARE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MFG - MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NHC - NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NST - NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PTM - PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: REA - REA GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: REG - REGIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RIO - RIO TINTO LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RRL - REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RSG - RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: S32 - SOUTH32 LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SBM - ST. BARBARA LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SFR - SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WHC - WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WSA - WESTERN AREAS LIMITED