Australian Broker Call

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January 25, 2018

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

Last Updated: 12:33 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BLD - BORAL Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
GNC - GRAINCORP Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
HUB - HUB24 Downgrade to Hold from Buy Ord Minnett
JHG - JANUS HENDERSON GROUP Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
MHJ - MICHAEL HILL Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
SOM - SOMNOMED Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
AMC  AMCOR LIMITED

Paper & Packaging

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Overnight Price: $14.48

UPDATED

Macquarie rates AMC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie is cautious about the headwinds from raw materials in the near term. Oil is up 10% and US resin producers are seeking a US4c/pound increase from February.

The broker considers there is a reasonable prospect that the company's strong growth in flexibles moderates. Ultimately, Macquarie expects raw material price increases to be passed through and and these could even shift to tailwinds should the new US supply weigh on prices.

Target is reduced to $16.60 from $17.28. Outperform.

Target price is $16.60 Current Price is $14.48 Difference: $2.12
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.14, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 59.11 cents and EPS of 82.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 66.77 cents and EPS of 93.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.5, implying annual growth of 10.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMP  AMP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $5.18

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley has low expectations for the upcoming results. A reinstatement of the buyback presents upside but unlocking long-term value is likely to require patience.

Equal-weight retained. Target is raised to $5.75 from $5.60. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.18 Difference: $0.57
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.3, implying annual growth of 5.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARF  ARENA REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.20

UPDATED

Macquarie rates ARF as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie initiates coverage of Arena REIT with an Outperform rating and $2.53 target.

The portfolio has strong underlying growth supported by fixed/CPI-linked annual rent reviews. Market rent review has also been positive and the company has achieved an average rental uplift of 4.7% in FY17 alone.

Macquarie believes a takeover bid from Folkstone Education Trust ((FET)), or even an agreed merger of equals, is another potential source of upside for unit holders.

Target price is $2.53 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.33
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.80 cents and EPS of 13.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.79.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.94.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BIN  BINGO INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $2.69

UBS rates BIN as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS has initiated coverage on Bingo Industries with a Buy rating. No further detail is available at this stage.

Current Price is $2.69. Target price not assessed.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLD  BORAL LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $7.90

Ord Minnett rates BLD as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett believes Boral has entered a prolonged period of strong earnings growth that is not fully reflected in the share price.

The broker believes investment in infrastructure will be the main driver of growth domestically. In the US, the single family sector appears to be trending higher and repair activity should expand.

The broker upgrades to Accumulate from Hold and raises the target to $8.50 from $6.70.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.90 Difference: $0.6
If BLD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.70, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.2, implying annual growth of 24.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.2, implying annual growth of 22.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF  CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $13.88

Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley's focus for the upcoming results remains on reducing the maturity profile - estimating a reduction to 25% - and lengthening new business, with reduced reliance on sales to drive book growth.

Underweight. Target is raised to $11.50 from $11.00. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $13.88 Difference: minus $2.38 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.30, suggesting downside of -11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 36.10 cents and EPS of 64.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.3, implying annual growth of -4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 38.80 cents and EPS of 61.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.6, implying annual growth of 7.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNC  GRAINCORP LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $7.57

ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates GNC as Buy (1) -

Following the final 2018 winter harvest report Deutsche Bank reduces estimates for FY18 grain receivals by around -20%. The broker considers the poor crop and disappointing receivals has largely been priced in.

FY18 earnings estimates are reduced by -36%. Buy rating retained. Target is $9.70.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $2.13
If GNC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.79, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of -39.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of 43.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates GNC as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Graincorp's winter grain receivals were down some -50% on the previous winter. Given high fixed costs, Morgans notes a below average year means crunched margins, increased competition and potential loss of market share.

The summer crop is not looking too good either, given ongoing dry conditions. The broker has slashed earnings forecasts and lowered its target to $8.51 from $8.73. The broker nevertheless notes that the time the buy Graincorp is in a bad year, rewarding the patient investor when crops normalise.

Upgrade to Add.

Target price is $8.51 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $0.94
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.79, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of -39.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of 43.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB  HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $10.85

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett expects flows to remain strong for the company. Adviser numbers are also up 41% in the December quarter.

The broker likes the business fundamentally but prefers a cheaper entry point and believes the stock has run too hard, too quickly.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target rises to $11.00 from $9.57.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.85 Difference: $0.15
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.20 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 102.36.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.90 cents and EPS of 20.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.42.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFL  IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $10.65

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley suggests news flow on the ANZ ((ANZ)) wealth deal will shape investor sentiment at the upcoming results.

The company needs to provide assurance that the deal will complete by September 30. Morgan Stanley targets first half underlying earnings per share of 29.2c and distributions of 26c.

Rating is Overweight. Target is $13.00. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $10.65 Difference: $2.35
If IFL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.16, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 56.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.7, implying annual growth of 46.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 73.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.4, implying annual growth of 22.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHG  JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC.

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $50.85

Citi rates JHG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi upgrades 2018 and 2019 estimates by 7%, updating flow estimates and performance fee calculations while allowing for US tax cuts.

Given the stock's recent rally, the broker notes it is now trading at a 5% premium to its peer group. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target is raised to $51.30 from $50.75.

Target price is $51.30 Current Price is $50.85 Difference: $0.45
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $51.61, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 313.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 151.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 367.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 332.5, implying annual growth of 17.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 175.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD  KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED

Sports & Recreation

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Overnight Price: $2.19

ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates KMD as Buy (1) -

The company's trading update indicates continuing improvements in gross margin. Deutsche Bank observes like-for-like sales decelerated in Australia but this was against a particularly strong prior corresponding period.

The broker expects the inventory position to remain healthy and support further reductions to net debt, which will provide options for capital management over the next 12 months.

Buy rating retained. Target is NZ$2.65.

Current Price is $2.19. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.94 cents and EPS of 18.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.86 cents and EPS of 20.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNK  LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $8.68

Citi rates LNK as Buy (1) -

Citi updates forecasts to reflect the completion of the CAS acquisition and incorporates the impact of a higher British pound. FY18 estimates for earnings per share are lifted by 7% and FY19 and FY20 by 3%.

Citi considers the synergies are conservative and debt servicing may not be as risky as first feared. Buy rating retained and target raised to $10.00 from $9.05.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.68 Difference: $1.32
If LNK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.03, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 38.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.6, implying annual growth of 66.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.50 cents and EPS of 48.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of 26.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LVH  LIVEHIRE LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services

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Overnight Price: $1.28

Morgans rates LVH as Add (1) -

Livehire has announced new growth initiatives, aimed at growing the number of distribution partners and technology partners that can integrate with the company's Talent Community system. Short term costs should translate into growth in longer term recurring revenue, the broker suggests.

Add (High Risk) retained. Target rises to $1.38 from $1.10. Not a stock for the risk averse, the broker warns.

Target price is $1.38 Current Price is $1.28 Difference: $0.1
If LVH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 47.41.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 55.65.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MHJ  MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Luxury

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Overnight Price: $1.29

ADDED

Credit Suisse rates MHJ as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The company has announced it will exit the US market and re-position the Emma & Roe brand. Credit Suisse welcomes this announcement but, given the recent share price performance, believes the impact is largely priced in.

The broker updates forecasts to reflect a reduced loss profile for Emma & Roe and the exit of the US market, but expects to further refine assumptions once more detail emerges regarding the new proposition for the company.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target raised to NZ$1.55 from NZ$1.50.

Current Price is $1.29. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.46, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.92 cents and EPS of 0.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 139.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of -23.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.92 cents and EPS of 0.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 139.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of 15.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Macquarie rates MHJ as Outperform (1) -

The company has announced the exit of its US operations. The US business delivered less than 3% of group revenue in FY17 and contributed an operating earnings loss of -$5m.

The company has reached the decision that the amount of capital required to scale up the business is not warranted. The company will also re-position Emma & Roe in the demi-fine jewelry segment and invest in omni channel capabilities and marketing.

Outperform and $1.54 target.

Target price is $1.54 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.25
If MHJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.46, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.20 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of -23.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.10 cents and EPS of 9.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of 15.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MP1  MEGAPORT LIMITED

Cloud services

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Overnight Price: $3.75

Morgans rates MP1 as Add (1) -

Megaport has announced the launch of its new Megaport Cloud Router, which simplifies a complex set of cloud connectivity products to create an easier solution for the customer. The product opens up a new complimentary market for the company, the broker notes.

The broker expects substantial growth in new cloud-to-cloud and cloud-to-data centre connectivity. Add retained. Target rises to $4.44 from $2.88.

Target price is $4.44 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: $0.69
If MP1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MRG  MURRAY RIVER ORGANICS GROUP LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $0.36

Morgans rates MRG as Hold (3) -

Murray River's new CEO has completed a stocktake and written down inventory. Meredith Partners succeeded at the company's EGM to replace board members. New management has offered more conservative assumptions regarding the company's business model.

The broker thus now has less conviction in forecasts. There are better alternatives in the ag space but patient investors may be rewarded with a potential turnaround or corporate action, the broker suggests. Target falls to 38c from 45c, Hold retained.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.02
If MRG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.00.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.85.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWL  NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $6.40

Ord Minnett rates NWL as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett believes Netwealth is well-placed in a market where advisers are seeking independence in ownership, product and platform.

The opportunity is considered to be very large, as the company's share of the $774bn platform industry is just 1.8% while its share of net inflows is 20%.

Ord Minnett initiates with a Hold rating and $6.40 target.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $6.40 Difference: $0
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 74.42.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.80 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.51.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA  ORORA LIMITED

Paper & Packaging

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Overnight Price: $3.23

Morgans rates ORA as Add (1) -

Ahead of Orora's result release next month, the broker has lifted its target to $3.45 from $3.22, retaining Add. The broker forecasts 8% first half earnings growth driven both organically and from acquisitions.

Orora remains the broker's top pick in the packaging sector.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.22
If ORA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.34, suggesting upside of 3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 16.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 8.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PGH  PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LTD

Paper & Packaging

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Overnight Price: $5.26

Morgans rates PGH as Hold (3) -

The broker expects Pact to post a broadly flat profit result next month, with earnings boosted by acquisitions.

Target falls to $5.30 from $5.37 on A$ adjustments. Hold retained.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.26 Difference: $0.04
If PGH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.73, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.8, implying annual growth of 16.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.7, implying annual growth of 11.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE  QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $10.99

ADDED

Credit Suisse rates QBE as Underperform (5) -

The company has lowered its 2017 combined operating ratio (COR) guidance to 104% and Credit Suisse continues to envisage downside earnings risk. The broker notes a view that the re-set FY18 COR guidance, to 97.5% from 95%, is conservative.

Significantly, the broker points out that QBE did not provide any top-line guidance. The broker expects earnings pressure will continue in 2018.

Underperform retained. Target is reduced to $9.85 from $11.00.

Target price is $9.85 Current Price is $10.99 Difference: minus $1.14 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.92, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 41.57 cents and EPS of minus 41.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -22.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 50.66 cents and EPS of 62.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM  SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $17.22

ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates SGM as Hold (3) -

Deutsche Bank upgrades 2018/2019 price forecasts for US scrap by around 40% and increases Sims Metal's FY18 operating earnings forecasts by 8%.

US volumes are robust, which the broker believes should offset the impact of Chinese scrap exports and non-ferrous import restrictions.

Nevertheless, the broker considers the stock fully valued. Hold rating. Target is raised to $14.50 from $13.50.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $17.22 Difference: minus $2.72 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.50, suggesting downside of -10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 101.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.8, implying annual growth of -15.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 101.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.2, implying annual growth of 7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SOM  SOMNOMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $3.46

Morgans rates SOM as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Somnomed has reported record second quarter revenues thanks to strength in Europe, and early, but significant, contributions from the Renew Sleep Solutions business, Morgans notes. However FY18 guidance has been downgraded due to slower than forecast initial RSS sales.

The result is a pushing out in time of earnings growth expectations. The broker has cut its target to $3.58 from $4.04 and downgraded to Hold.

Target price is $3.58 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.12
If SOM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 43.25.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.45.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $5.24

Citi rates STO as Sell (5) -

December quarter production was slightly below Citi's estimates, although sales revenue was 16% ahead. The company expects to focus on its "build and grow" strategy but Citi notes key assets are unchanged and de-risking may be a multi-year process.

Realising value might be a story for 2019, the broker contends. Sell rating maintained. Target reduced to $5.13 from $5.15.

Target price is $5.13 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.31, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of 87.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Credit Suisse rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Production and sales in the December quarter were at the top end, or above, prior guidance while production costs and capital expenditure were at, or below, guidance, Credit Suisse observes. 2018 guidance is unchanged.

Santos remains the broker's top pick in the pure E&P's. Outperform retained. Target is $5.70.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $0.46
If STO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.31, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 31.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of 87.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates STO as Buy (1) -

December quarter production was broadly in line with expectations and brings the full year to the top end of the company's guidance range of 58-60 mmboe. Production guidance of 55-60 mmboe for 2018 was reiterated.

Given the material ramp up in the company's drilling program in 2018, Deutsche Bank is of the view that guidance is conservative. The broker increases 2018 and 2019 estimates for net profit by 26% and 14% respectively. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $5.90 from $5.85.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $0.66
If STO meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.31, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 3.90 cents and EPS of 31.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of 87.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Macquarie rates STO as Neutral (3) -

December quarter production and revenue was in line with Macquarie's estimates. However, higher oil prices have resulted in a US$65m pre-tax liability on hedging which will affect reported profit.

 Macquarie considers the stock fairly valued and believes the upside from delivering on cost reductions, highlighted throughout 2017, is now priced in.

Upside now lies with the speed at which the company can reach its gearing target and the potential to reinstate dividends. Neutral maintained. Target is $5.70.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $0.46
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.31, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of 87.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates STO as Hold (3) -

December quarter production was strong and 2018 guidance is reiterated, although this implies production will decline by up to -8%.

Despite a strong quarter and positive outlook, Ord Minnett considers the stock fully valued. Moreover, the broker believes oil prices will slide because of a supply response from US shale producers.

Target is $5.30. Hold maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $0.06
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.31, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 22.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.7.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of 87.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates STO as Sell (5) -

December quarter production was in line although a large increase in realised prices meant revenue beat UBS estimates. The broker notes a good quarter for GLNG, but this was driven by gas purchase from QC LNG.

There is no change to 2018 guidance and an oil hedging loss has been flagged as prices rise above US$60/bbl.

The broker still considers the stock one of the more expensive under coverage. Sell retained. Price target rises to $5.25 from $5.20.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $0.01
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.31, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.7.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of 87.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $16.76

Citi rates TWE as Sell (5) -

Citi reviews a wide range of data on the company's key markets, noting Asia is strong, a decline in Australia and softness in the US.

The broker observes the valuation multiple is closely linked to Chinese demand and, while there are encouraging signs, other regions will reduce the upside risk. The broker wants more evidence of a recovery in the Americas before becoming more positive.

Sell rating and $10.90 target maintained.

Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $16.76 Difference: minus $5.86 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.81, suggesting downside of -11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 46.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.7, implying annual growth of 27.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 58.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.3, implying annual growth of 27.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VHT  VOLPARA HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $0.70

Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -

Volpara has reported 152% growth in annual recurring revenue in the third quarter, with 13 new SaaS customers bringing the total to 38. The broker keenly awaits a trial in the UK and developments in Japan and Taiwan, where regulatory approval has been granted.

No change to forecasts. Add and 81c target retained.

Target price is $0.81 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.11
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.01.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 29.90.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WSA  WESTERN AREAS NL

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $3.38

Citi rates WSA as Sell (5) -

December quarter production held no surprises for Citi. The Forrestania mill recovery enhancement project is expected to be commissioned in the current quarter and this could increase nickel recoveries to over 90% from the current 86%.

Citi still considers the stock too expensive and maintains a Sell rating. Target is reduced to $2.50 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting downside of -16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 7.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 15.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 89.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Credit Suisse rates WSA as Neutral (3) -

December quarter production was in line with guidance and Credit Suisse notes a good a performance on costs. The dip in grade reflects the planned extraction sequence and the contribution from the ore sorter.

The broker notes strong battery market interest in the high-grade concentrate at higher payback, and the mill recovery enhancement project remains on schedule and on budget for commissioning in March.

Neutral retained. Target is raised to $3.15 from $2.70.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting downside of -16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.55 cents and EPS of 5.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 65.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 7.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 89.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates WSA as Sell (5) -

Production increased in the December quarter on record mill throughput, but recoveries fell -1% to 86% as low-grade fines were fed to the plant.

Deutsche Bank retains forecasts for FY18 at the top end of guidance, which is 23-25,000t, but notes milled production will have to lift 6% in the second half to achieve this.

Sell rating and $2.80 target.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting downside of -16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 84.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 7.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 89.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Macquarie rates WSA as Outperform (1) -

December quarter production was solid and nickel output and cash generation in line with Macquarie's estimates. The potential for a larger development at Odysseus presents upside risk to the broker's forecasts.

Outperform retained. Target is $3.80.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.42
If WSA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting downside of -16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 15.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 7.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 18.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 89.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
AMC AMCOR Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $14.48
AMP AMP Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.18
ARF ARENA REIT Initiation of coverage with Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.20
BIN BINGO INDUSTRIES Initiation of coverage with Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.69
BLD BORAL Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.90
CGF CHALLENGER Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $13.88
GNC GRAINCORP Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $7.57
Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $7.57
HUB HUB24 Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $10.85
IFL IOOF HOLDINGS Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $10.65
JHG JANUS HENDERSON GROUP Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $50.85
KMD KATHMANDU Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $2.19
LNK LINK ADMINISTRATION Buy - Citi Overnight Price $8.68
LVH LIVEHIRE Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.28
MHJ MICHAEL HILL Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.29
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.29
MP1 MEGAPORT Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.75
MRG MURRAY RIVER ORGANICS Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $0.36
NWL NETWEALTH GROUP Initiation of coverage with Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $6.40
ORA ORORA Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.23
PGH PACT GROUP Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $5.26
QBE QBE INSURANCE Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $10.99
SGM SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $17.22
SOM SOMNOMED Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.46
STO SANTOS Sell - Citi Overnight Price $5.24
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.24
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $5.24
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.24
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.24
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $5.24
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES Sell - Citi Overnight Price $16.76
VHT VOLPARA HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.70
WSA WESTERN AREAS Sell - Citi Overnight Price $3.38
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.38
Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.38
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.38
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

16

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

12

5. Sell

7

Thursday 25 January 2018

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.