Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AZJ as Outperform (1) -

The company has released additional network information regarding track volumes. April volumes have improved in some areas, benefiting from no cyclone activity.

Nevertheless, Macquarie suggests that, in order to meet volume guidance, the company will need to provide materially more services.

Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and $4.84 target.

Target price is $4.84 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: $0.41
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.46, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BBN as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi believes its sell thesis surrounding disruption from competitor closures has played out quicker than expected. The broker upgrades to Neutral/High Risk from Sell, envisaging the risks over the next 12 months as evenly balanced. Operating momentum is expected to improve following the latest round of competitor closures.

The broker trims FY18 forecasts to reflect downgraded guidance but upgrades FY19 forecasts to reflect market share gains, and believes the company is well-placed to be the winner in the fall-out from competitors. Target is raised $1.50 from $1.20.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.11
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.59, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BBN as Add (1) -

Baby Bunting has attempted to quantify the impact of closures and consolidation amongst its competitors, suggesting a -17% earnings impact in FY18 on clearance activity. While the company will take a short term hit, medium term it will emerge in a much better position, the broker notes.

It is as yet unclear as to whether competitor Babies 'R' Us might exit fully, which would exacerbate the near term impact, the broker notes, but leave Baby Bunting the last man standing in a market worth $2.4bn. Target falls to $1.50 from $1.63, Add retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.11
If BBN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.59, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

In an initial assessment of the March quarter trading update, Citi analysts are surprised by how weak the result actually is, and they expect investors to respond accordingly.

The analysts reiterate their Sell rating, expecting more challenges will continue to provide headwinds. Higher costs and lower revenues have not been sufficiently compensated through cycle low BDDS, or so it appears.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $71.37 Difference: $0.63
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $76.81, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGC as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

The broker has initiated coverage of Costa Group with a Hold rating, noting the company is the market leader in Australian horticulture, offering a portfolio of high-value produce leveraged to strong consumer demand. Target is $7.57.

Given potential volatility in produce yields and prices, the broker suggests Costa's ongoing capital projects are fundamental to ongoing earnings growth. A strong track record implies guidance may be conservative, but the broker believes the market is pricing in little room for disappointment despite the inherent risks.

Target price is $7.57 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $0.14
If CGC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.55, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

The changes mooted in the 2018 federal budget to the age pension suggest test requirements for retirement products are more favourable for the product providers than previously proposed.

The rules change the way in which lifetime annuities interact with the age pension by altering the amount to be included in means test calculations.

Aged care changes may also be favourable for the company's CarePlus product. Partly offsetting this positive news for the company, Citi suggests Japan may not be as strong a growth option as previously thought.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $13.60 from $11.20.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $12.43 Difference: $1.17
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.04, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Underweight (5) -

The 2018 federal budget has introduced two key announcements which could put the company one step closer to its MyRetirement opportunity, Morgan Stanley suggests.

The government will implement legislation requiring trustees to offer products that provide individuals income for life no matter how long they live. A position paper for the consultation will be released shortly.

Also, from July 1, 2019 lifetime annuities will carry a fixed asset value equal to 60% of the purchase price until aged 84, and 30% thereafter. The broker considers the 60/30 rule is an improved outcome versus the original 70/35 proposed in the consultation paper back in February.

Underweight rating. Target is $11.00. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $12.43 Difference: minus $1.43 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.04, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSR as Neutral (3) -

In an initial assessment of the FY18 report, Citi analysts note they had higher expectations, but CSR's performance seems to have been in-line with market consensus.

The outlook remains for strong levels of activity to continue. Due to hedging, CSR is missing out on the upside from a spike in aluminium prices, point out the analysts. Property seems to have disappointed.

Target price is $4.23 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: minus $1.39 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting downside of -11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTX as Underweight (5) -

The debate regarding disruption posed by electric vehicles to internal combustion engines is growing, Morgan Stanley observes. The broker suggests the risks for Caltex may materialise sooner than expected.

While electric vehicle growth in Australia is likely to lag the rates in many other countries the broker suggests there still could be investment implications.

Morgan Stanley expects earnings to decline in 2018 driven by lower refining margins, greater costs in the Foodary business and lower non-fuel income.

Underweight rating. In-Line industry view. Target is reduced to $26 from $27.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $30.60 Difference: minus $4.6 (current price is over target).
If CTX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.19, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CYB as Outperform (1) -

Clydesdale has made a preliminary offer to acquire Virgin Money on an all-share basis. Credit Suisse envisages strategic merit in the acquisition, given the complimentary business model, but remains surprised by the timing.

Clydesdale is seen executing well on a cost story, has revenue upside from Williams and Glynn and should receive a capital benefit from IRB status by the end of the year. While reasonable accretion exists, the broker believes the transaction is not without risks and social challenges.

Outperform and $6.00 target retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.86 Difference: $0.14
If CYB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.93, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates DXS as Hold (3) -

The company has announced the sale of 32 Flinders Street Melbourne for $87.1m. The sale is expected to contribute around $49m to the pre-tax trading profits in FY19. Deutsche Bank retains a Hold rating. Target is $9.37.

Target price is $9.37 Current Price is $9.68 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.82, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ECX as Buy (1) -

Yesterday's interim report was not well received in the market, but Citi analysts stay the course, arguing Eclipx management is "creating a sophisticated diversified financial services company with considerable optionality in its channels of distribution, funding and growth strategy". Buy call retained.

Citi analysts acknowledge Eclipx presents investors with a complex structure, not to mention complexity in financial accounts and in underlying growth drivers. However, both Right2Drive and Grays are performing well, in the analysts' opinion.

The shares are seen trading at significant discount to peers. Estimates have been lowered by -4%-6%. Price target falls by -7% to $4.50.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: $1.18
If ECX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.54, suggesting upside of 36.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates ECX as Buy (1) -

The company's first half result showed strong volume growth. Deutsche Bank is less impressed by the one-off cost allocation and capitalisation of IT expenditure but acknowledges the scale of the integration of acquisitions is significant and the top-line growth and opportunity warrants the investment.

Buy rating and $4.50 target retained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: $1.18
If ECX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.54, suggesting upside of 36.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ECX as Buy (1) -

UBS believes the negative share price reaction to the company's first half results was unwarranted. Market concerns centre on margin pressures and slowing growth in the core business, as well as the skew required in the second half to achieve guidance.

Guidance has been reaffirmed for net profit growth of 27-30%. The broker envisages multiple growth levers for the company, substantial upside and minimal downside risks. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.25 from $4.55.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: $0.93
If ECX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.54, suggesting upside of 36.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ELO as Resume Coverage with Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley resumes coverage with an Overweight rating and $6.30 target, noting strong organic growth potential M&A catalysts. Industry view is In-Line.

The broker's FY19 revenue forecasts imply 26% growth over FY18 pro forma revenue, accelerating to 30% in FY20. While valuation appears demanding, Morgan Stanley suggests there is an opportunity to offer a fully functional, integrated solution that delivers a far superior experience.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $0.61
If ELO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GXL as Neutral (3) -

On initial assessment, Citi notes Greencross has used its trading update to issue a profit warning. The company has reduced FY18 guidance by -12%. Both Australian Vet stores and in-store clinics are responsible.

The company has also announced non-cash impairments and a corporate restructure, while balance sheet gearing is "elevated", the analysts point out. Macquarie is not surprised. Neutral. Price target $6.30.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $4.41 Difference: $1.89
If GXL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.96, suggesting upside of 35.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates HSO as Hold (3) -

NorthWest Healthcare Properties has acquired a 10% interest in the stock by way of derivatives. Along with associated entity Vital Healthcare Property Trust, NorthWest is interested in acquiring the company's hospital-related real estate assets.

Deutsche Bank has a Hold rating and $2.05 target.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If HSO meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.26, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

March quarter production was weak, Macquarie observes. Given the increased risk of misses to production and cost guidance the broker downgrades to Underperform from Neutral.

Incorporating the weaker result drives a -10% reduction to earnings estimates for FY19 and FY20. Target is reduced to $4.60 from $4.90.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.94 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.68, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

On initial assessment, Citi analysts label the interim report "soft". The outlook provided is only seen as "mixed". Citi analysts anticipate consensus estimates will be cut by -3-5% in coming days.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.68
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.03, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

On initial assessment, Incitec Pivot's interim result seems to have been in-line with Macquarie's forecasts, but market consensus might have been disappointed, suggest the analysts. Interim dividend of 4.5c missed the mark with 5c expected prior.

Macquarie does acknowledge the profit release was supported by lower tax, suggesting underlying it actually represents a slight "miss". The analysts also point out the company is a beneficiary of a weakening AUD. Target $4.04. Outperform.

Target price is $4.04 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.52
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.03, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates JBH as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Deutsche Bank's investigations indicate that, while competition has been an issue for The Good Guys in terms of margins, the sales mix has been a larger problem.

The business is without enough skilled sales staff and incentive structures, as a result of the takeover, to up-sell consumers to high margin premium appliances.

The broker suggests margins are likely to remain weak for some time. While JB Hi-Fi's valuation is not demanding, Deutsche Bank downgrades to Hold from Buy. Target is $24.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $22.45 Difference: $1.55
If JBH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.59, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHX as Lighten (4) -

The company is scheduled to report its FY18 result on May 22 and Ord Minnett forecasts net profit of US$278m, at the upper end of management's guidance range.

The broker suggests expectations for coming years leave little room for error, as they factor in both a solid performance on margin and a recovery in primary demand growth, a combination James Hardy has struggled to maintain over time.

The broker retains a Lighten rating and raises the target to $23.50 from $21.00 as the model is rolled forward.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $23.42 Difference: $0.08
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.91, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Karoon has downgraded Echidna and Kangaroo 2C resources by -36% following re-assessment of seismic data.

Macquarie is disappointed with the downgrade but remains confident in the company's ability to acquire production in the offshore region of Brazil, which would be a primary vehicle for value going forward.

Alongside a rally in oil prices the broker believes there may be renewed interest in the stock for its potential to become a significant oil producer. Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.30 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.1
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates LNK as Neutral (3) -

The 2018 federal budget has introduced measures which Credit Suisse believes will be detrimental to Link's fund administration division and may impact earnings by as much as -4%.

All in active superannuation accounts with balances below $6000 will be transferred to the ATO to be reunited with the member's active account by using a data matching process. If successful Link could experience a -10% reduction in its account numbers, the broker calculates.

There also could be some pressure on industry funds, which are Link's key clients, to consolidate low-balance inactive accounts and thereby indirectly impact Link. Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and $9 target.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.45 Difference: $0.55
If LNK meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.00, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Neutral (3) -

The April update revealed net outflows of -$268m. Offsetting underlying weakness, Macquare notes market performance improved in April.

The broker believes the company needs to deliver superior organic flows versus its peers to justify its premium valuation. Macquarie maintains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $26.00 from $30.43.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $23.99 Difference: $2.01
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.94, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Buy (1) -

The company's trading update contained a profit warning due to poor weather, and Citi analysts see it as a temporary impact from a force outside of management's control. They reiterate their Buy rating with an unchanged $10 price target.

Citi finds the shares are undervalued, plus the upcoming Investor Day will likely provide more insights into Nufarm's Omega 3 upside potential. Short term forecasts have been pared back, but FY19-20 remain largely unchanged.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.86 Difference: $1.14
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.74, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NUF as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse is not surprised by the weather-driven downgrade in earnings guidance. The broker notes continuing dry weather in Australia plus channel de-stocking from a European ban on neonicotinoids results in a 7% downgrade to FY19 earnings. A modest inventory overhang is also contributing.

Credit Suisse considers the stock marginally cheap and the near-term positives centre on further scaling up of the Omega 3 canola trials. Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $9.45 from $9.47.

Target price is $9.45 Current Price is $8.86 Difference: $0.59
If NUF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.74, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NUF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reduces earnings estimates after the trading update, where guidance has been downgraded to approximately 5% growth in EBIT for FY18, from 5-10% previously. Dry conditions have prevailed in Australia through to April, and in North America and Europe there is a delay in grower demand.

Seasonal adversities aside, the broker considers the FY19 outlook positive, as it is driven by European acquisitions, while in the longer term Omega 3 provides further growth options. Outperform rating. Target is reduced to $9.65 from $10.01.

Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $8.86 Difference: $0.79
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.74, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NUF as Overweight (1) -

The company has updated FY18 EBIT guidance as challenging weather conditions affect key regions. Guidance for FY18 is lowered to 5% growth from 5-10% previously.

Morgan Stanley was not surprised by the downgrade as, in particular, Australia has experienced dry conditions while Europe and North America have faced prolonged winter.

Ultimately, these events have dampened the demand outlook in the second half. The broker maintains an Overweight rating, $11.75 target and Cautious industry view.

Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $8.86 Difference: $2.89
If NUF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.74, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NUF as Add (1) -

Ahead of its investor day tomorrow, Nufarm has revised FY18 earnings growth guidance to "approximately 5%" from a prior 5-10%, citing challenging seasonal conditions across A&NZ, Europe and North America. The broker has cut its forecast by -4% but suggests this is not a bad outcome given the circumstances.

The broker still forecasts solid growth in FY19-20 and suggests Nufarm's valuation is not demanding. Add retained, target falls to $10.00 from $10.15.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.86 Difference: $1.14
If NUF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.74, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie suggests the business is in a sweet spot, with stronger oil prices and robust cash flow as higher power prices roll through amid an ongoing cost reduction program.

The debt burden is being addressed quickly and this provides flexibility for the business to resume some incremental growth projects.

The broker suggests Origin Energy may surprise with an August dividend. Outperform rating and $10.02 target maintained.

Target price is $10.02 Current Price is $9.93 Difference: $0.09
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.84, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes negative investment performance and market movements in the latest quarter were offset by favourable FX, which led to an increase in funds under management.

The broker considers the recent sell-off overdone. Outperform rating. Target is reduced to $10.50 from $12.60.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.18 Difference: $1.32
If PDL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.75, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PPT as Neutral (3) -

The company has sustained a weak quarter with net outflows of -$1.3bn following the loss of Australian equity institutional mandates.

While Macquarie recognises institutional flows can be lumpy, until Perpetual delivers sustained improved performance further downside risk is envisaged.

Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $42.50 from $51.00.

Target price is $42.50 Current Price is $40.67 Difference: $1.83
If PPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.39, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PTM as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie estimates $500m in net inflows in April and suggests the announcement that Kerr Neilson was stepping down as CEO of the flagship fund is having less impact than initially anticipated.

Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. Target is raised to $6.25 from $6.11.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $6.16 Difference: $0.09
If PTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.31, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SGP as Buy (1) -

The company has updated on its $300m divestment program, exchanging unconditional contracts to sell Wallsend and 77 Pacific Highway for a total of $193m. Both assets will be sold to domestic buyers.

Buy rating. Target is $4.89.

Target price is $4.89 Current Price is $4.26 Difference: $0.63
If SGP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TAH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie estimates Tabcorp could generate $11m in EBITDA during the 2018 soccer World Cup in Russia. The broker reviews a potential earnings benefit and also includes Powerball price increases.

The broker considers the valuation undemanding, amid scope for higher Tatts synergies and lotteries upgrades through larger jackpots. Outperform maintained. Target rises to $5.20 from $5.13.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.32 Difference: $0.88
If TAH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -

Volpara is raising up to $18m to fund product development and expand its US sales team. The company's SaaS-based platform has been well received, the broker notes, with 57 new customers signed up.

Only 3.2% of women screened in the US are currently captured by Volpara's technology and this is forecast to increase to 9% over the next 12 months. Netting out the capital raising, higher costs and higher screening charges leads the broker to increase its target to 93c from 81c. Add retained.

Target price is $0.93 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.25
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

With few calls on capital outside of the Winchester payments in the near term, Credit Suisse believes the company is in a strong position to deliver significant returns to shareholders in August. The dividend policy is to pay out 20-50% of earnings per share and target gearing of 10-15%.

It would be up to the board to decide on the validity of buybacks versus dividends but the broker suggests, if the former is not preferred, a $300m special dividend could be incremental to a 50% pay-out. Outperform rating and $4.60 target maintained.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.70 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources