Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AGL as Underperform (5) -

Forward prices continue to soften for the company, yet Macquarie notes the share price is bucking the trend. Historically, the share price has been driven by forward electricity prices.

The broker observes the policy framework is negative for coal-fired earnings, with interconnectors and state-based policies all seeking to reduce prices.

As a result, the broker expects flat earnings for the next three years before another step down. Underperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $18.35 from $18.84.

Target price is $18.35 Current Price is $20.63 Difference: minus $2.28 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.96, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley reduces its valuation after reviewing financing assumptions for Dulles Greenway. This is partially offset by favourable traffic, toll and discount rate assumptions.

The broker has an Equal-weight rating, Cautious industry view and reduces the target to $8.08 from $8.27.

Target price is $8.08 Current Price is $8.16 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AMC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse raises the target to $16.25 from $15.50, suspecting there could be more consensus upgrades. Falling raw materials prices could stimulate some new volume and underpin profit.

Nestle has stated an aim to reduce its reliance on virgin plastic with a commitment to make 100% of packaging recyclable or reusable by 2025. Credit Suisse notes Amcor has the capability to produce packaging from either recycled or virgin resin.

The broker points out a distinction must be made between flexibles and rigid packaging, assessing recycled resin for flexibles is a very thin market.

The broker cannot immediately evaluate the impact of Nestle's announcement but assumes Amcor's volumes do not decline over time. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $16.25 Current Price is $15.68 Difference: $0.57
If AMC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.10, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Sell (5) -

Citi marks to market forecasts, trimming FY20 estimates for earnings per share by -1%. AMP has recently generated $1.5b in flows into high-interest deposits, suggesting the damage to its brand may be easing.

Citi remains cautious about the performance of the company's bank division, despite the merger with Australian wealth management.

Sell/High Risk rating maintained. Target is $1.70.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ATL as Hold (3) -

The company has noted last-minute bookings for the peak summer holidays have been affected by the bushfires. The magnitude of financial impact is unclear but underlying net profit is likely to be lower than FY19.

Apollo Tourism & Leisure also referred to global sales markets being subdued. The broker suspects these comments relate primarily to the North American business.

Revenue assumptions are downgraded. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.32 from $0.38.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If ATL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley updates its model following the December quarter production outcome. Production was better than expected, offset by worse costs and realised prices.

Alumina refining cost estimates are lifted slightly for 2020 and the closure of the Point Comfort refinery has been factored in. Estimates for earnings per share are downgraded by -2% for 2019 and -8% for 2020.

Target is reduced to $2.40 from $2.45. Overweight rating, In-Line industry view maintained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $0.08
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley tweaks its valuation to account for recent volume data. Cyclical volume weakness is in the background and the broker looks for the company to espouse further capital initiatives.

As Aurizon has a strategy of gradually drawing down on its debt capacity the broker is forecasting further buybacks in FY21.

Target is reduced to $5.78 from $5.88. Equal-weight rating. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $5.78 Current Price is $5.61 Difference: $0.17
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.70, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes Commonwealth Bank is priced for a strong result so the potential for disappointment is great. The outlook for margins and costs, alongside expectations of a buyback, will be the main focus.

The broker forecasts a cash profit of $4.46bn, broadly in line with consensus.

With the sale of asset management completed and a revised transaction path in place for the sale of CommInsure Life, Morgan Stanley forecasts a $2bn off-market buyback and believes investors will be disappointed if capital management is delayed again.

Underweight maintained. Target is $70. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $84.04 Difference: minus $14.04 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.30, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Hold (3) -

Morgans reduces estimates for FY20 cash earnings per share by -0.8%, expecting a rise in general insurance claims because of the bushfires. Commonwealth Bank is scheduled to report its first half result on February 12.

The broker continues to forecast a $2.5bn off-market share buyback in the first half of FY21. Morgans retains a Hold rating and $74 target. While considering the stock good quality the current share price is considered expensive relative to the other majors.

Target price is $74.00 Current Price is $84.04 Difference: minus $10.04 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.30, suggesting downside of -12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

Citi lifts estimates for FY20 earnings per share by 7% to reflect market movements. This reflects a compression in bond spreads, strong equity markets and some allowance for underperformance in retail property.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $8.30 from $7.30. The broker expects ongoing subdued domestic retail annuity sales along with above-target sales in Japan and further strong interest from institutions.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $8.56 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.42, suggesting downside of -13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Setting aside the one-off -$34m hit from catastrophic events in FY20, Citi assesses the commercial insurance cycle is still in a hardening phase, leading to rate increases and margin expansion.

Together with a buyback, the broker is forecasting growth of 9% in earnings per share in FY21. Buy rating and $8.75 target maintained.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: $1.03
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

James Hardie stood out in 2019 and Morgan Stanley envisages further upside potential in 2020.

Factors which could lead to the stock reaching the revised target, raised to $35.90 from $29.00, include an improved US housing outlook, further gains in primary demand growth, a continuation of margins above the target and increased investor confidence in management.

If these criteria are achieved, the broker believes there is no reason for a continued discount to Australian industrial peers. Overweight rating maintained. Cautious industry view.

Target price is $35.90 Current Price is $30.32 Difference: $5.58
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.04, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MPL as Underperform (5) -

Should claims growth continue increasing, Macquarie suggests the lag in price rises could create a margin squeeze in FY20/21. As Medibank Private will not be immune from these headwinds, the broker maintains an Underperform rating.

The broker assesses gross margins and investment returns could soften in the first half despite the outperformance on claims growth versus market averages. Target is steady at $2.85.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $3.21 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHF as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi factors in small positive gains, allowing for the full impact of the reserve top up the company has to make to the claims provision. The broker assesses some value has crept into the stock and upgrades to Neutral from Sell. Target is steady at $6.85.

While nib is gaining traction from its Qantas ((QAN)) Assure initiative, weak industry dynamics continue to weigh. Industry policyholder numbers are stagnant and affordability constraints remain elevated.

Citi anticipates earnings per share will contract -8% in FY20 and maintains only a low single-digit growth forecast for FY21-22.

Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $5.71 Difference: $1.14
If NHF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.56, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NUF as Outperform (1) -

The company has downgraded the first half outlook. Guidance is for operating earnings (EBITDA) of $55-65m. inventory is expected to be slightly elevated on lower first half sales in North America and Australia, partially mitigated by stronger sales in Europe.

While a sale of the South American crop protection business now appears likely to close in the second half, and will make first half debt appear high, Credit Suisse finds no persisting issue if the sale proceeds.

The broker remains cautious about Europe, with execution on acquisitions considered variable. Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $7.14 from $8.16.

Target price is $7.14 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $1.64
If NUF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.97, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NUF as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The company expects first half operating earnings between $55-65m. Macquarie expects regulatory approval for the Latin American sale will occur in February and notes this is key to fixing the balance sheet.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform, given limited returns and the potential for ongoing challenging conditions in the second half stemming from competitive markets and constrained raw material supply. Target is reduced to $5.77 from $5.83.

Target price is $5.77 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $0.27
If NUF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.97, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NUF as Overweight (1) -

The company has implied a meaningful downgrade to the first half earnings in its update. However, Morgan Stanley considers the issues short term and/or seasonal in nature.

High channel inventory in North America and Asia, and weak seasonal demand, have slowed earnings in these regions. High raw material costs and continued issues with supply are expected to cause a loss in the first half in Europe.

Morgan Stanley expects FY20 will be a transition year although, assuming the absence of the one-off issues experienced in FY19 such as the floods in the US, supply disruptions and severe drought in Australia, earnings are expected to increase in the second half by 5%.

Overweight rating and Cautious industry view. Target is reduced to $6.80 from $7.20.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $1.3
If NUF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.97, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NUF as Hold (3) -

First half underlying operating earnings guidance is materially below Morgans' previous forecasts. All operating regions will report softer results in the first half. The company will report its results on March 25.

Despite earnings being materially skewed to the second half, in line with Australia's winter crop and the key period in the northern hemisphere, Morgans downgrades FY20 and FY21 estimates by -14.5% and -28.2% respectively.

Hold rating. Target is raised to $5.05 from $4.90.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.97, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NUF as Hold (3) -

Weather conditions remain uncertain, although Ord Minnett notes some Australian regions are now experiencing a temporary reprieve. The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast only a "roughly equal" chance of average conditions through to April.

Given conditions have deteriorated further across all the company's divisions, Ord Minnett remains cautious and maintains a Hold rating and $5.10 target. The broker remains hesitant about the near-term return of the dividend.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.97, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Equal-weight (3) -

Origin Energy remains Morgan Stanley's preferred integrated utility in view of the strong growth in free cash flow and relative commodity positioning. The broker raises the valuation to account for favourable mark-to-market commodity prices and exchange rates

Equal-weight rating. Target is raised to $8.49 from $7.77. Industry view is Cautious as the broker envisages little absolute valuation upside across the Australian utilities coverage.

Target price is $8.49 Current Price is $8.65 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORG as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Fundamentals for the company's energy markets have become weaker. Given that around 50% of operating earnings are derived from energy markets Morgans believes this will be a drag on the performance.

The APLNG business is likely to continue performing well but the broker assesses the opportunities to grow earnings are limited. Future performance of APLNG will increasingly be a function of commodity prices, the broker adds.

Morgans believes investors that are looking for exposure to oil price would do better by focusing on stocks with a pure concentration in energy exports. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Add and the target is lowered to $8.43 from $8.62.

Target price is $8.43 Current Price is $8.65 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QAN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Following a strong run up in the share price, Citi downgrades Qantas to Neutral from Buy. Target is raised to $7.45 from $6.90.

Pre-tax profit forecasts for FY20 are reduced by -1%, consistent with the company's guidance about the impact of industrial action at Jetstar.

Citi believes the current share price adequately reflects a rational Australian domestic market, capital distributions and upside from Project Sunrise.

Target price is $7.45 Current Price is $7.05 Difference: $0.4
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.41, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RED as Add (1) -

December quarter production was affected by delays in accessing high-grade ore at Darlot because of geotechnical issues. FY20 production and cost guidance is unchanged.

The broker notes the final feasibility study for King of the Hills is advancing and on track for completion in September 2020. Add rating and $0.50 target.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.18
If RED meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Iron ore shipments in the December quarter were in line with expectations while mined copper was 14% ahead of Citi's estimates. Diamonds production was also 12% ahead of forecasts.

Citi maintains a Neutral rating and $100 target.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $106.32 Difference: minus $6.32 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $99.27, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RIO as Underperform (5) -

December quarter production delivered on most of the company's guidance metrics and provided a sound finish to a challenging 2019, Credit Suisse observes.

Iron ore shipments have been guided at 330-340mt for 2020, bauxite 55-58mt, aluminium 3.1-3.3mt and alumina 7.8-8.2mt. Mined copper and refined copper are guided at 530-570,000t and 205-235,000t respectively.

There was no material update on Oyu Tolgoi. Underperform rating and $86 target maintained.

Target price is $86.00 Current Price is $106.32 Difference: minus $20.32 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $99.27, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

2020 production guidance was largely in line with expectations, although copper has decreased on substantially lower grades at Kennecott. Macquarie forecasts a US$1 special dividend, assessing free cash flow will remain a proxy for returns to shareholders.

Earnings upside remains strong, in the broker's view, with a spot price scenario generating 30% upside to 2020 and 75% upside to 2021 estimates. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $107 from $105.

Target price is $107.00 Current Price is $106.32 Difference: $0.68
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $99.27, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

The December quarter result was slightly weaker than Morgan Stanley expected, largely because of grade variability in the copper division.

The broker expects a negative revenue revision of -1.5% for 2019 largely because of lower price realisation in the iron ore division.

Equal-weight rating retained. Industry view is In-Line. Target is $96.

Target price is $96.00 Current Price is $106.32 Difference: minus $10.32 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $99.27, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett downgrades to Accumulate from Buy. Quarterly production was generally in line with forecasts. The broker notes the attractive metrics in the stock but a strong run up in the share price has led to the downgrade.

The main disappointment was a decline in copper grades at Kennecott and lower copper guidance for 2020 with weak grades persisting before  recovering in early 2021.

The main positive surprise was bauxite, which was 9% ahead of forecasts. Target is steady at $112.

Target price is $112.00 Current Price is $106.32 Difference: $5.68
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $99.27, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

The company delivered on its 2019 guidance and has set forecasts for iron ore shipments in 2020 at 330-340mt.

UBS notes the decision to remove two of the three mid-access drivers at Oyu Tolgoi is a material re-design of the mine plan, which the company acknowledges will have an unfavourable impact on the schedule.

First sustainable production is forecast for May 2022 to June 2023. Capital expenditure of US$6.5-7.2bn is forecast which does not include the US$1.5bn needed for a power plant.

Neutral rating and $97.50 target maintained.

Target price is $97.50 Current Price is $106.32 Difference: minus $8.82 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $99.27, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

2019 production was mixed, Macquarie observes. A strong performance at Syama oxides was offset by a slower ramping up of the sulphides as well as the roaster outage late in the year.

The broker expects a nameplate year at Syama along with continued cash generation from Mako. The divestment of Ravenswood upgrades the cost profile, removes a call on capital and allows the company to focus on the African assets.

Outperform rating and $1.40 target maintained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.23
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SZL as Buy (1) -

The company has received a California Financing Law licence. This provides certainty, given some of the issues raised in December.

The speed of the resolution was a pleasant surprise for Ord Minnett as it allows the company to continue operating unhindered in California. Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and $3.40 target.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $1.42
If SZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources