Australian Broker Call

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February 13, 2018

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

Last Updated: 01:32 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
ANN - ANSELL Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
AWE - AWE Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight Morgan Stanley
BEN - BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK Upgrade to Neutral from Sell UBS
CIM - CIMIC GROUP Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Credit Suisse
PPS - PRAEMIUM Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
A2M  THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

Dairy

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Overnight Price: $8.34

Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts have kept the $8.85 price target and reiterated their Buy recommendation, again, as they did back in early December; now more than two months ago.

Citi's conviction that strong sales growth should be sustained in the second half is partially based upon ongoing robust demand, as well as on the fact the second half will be cycling an undemanding H2 FY17.

The broker's feedback is that, overall, demand stays well ahead of supply.

Target price is $8.85 Current Price is $8.34 Difference: $0.51
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.57, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 21.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.52 cents and EPS of 30.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of 32.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.5.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMC  AMCOR LIMITED

Paper & Packaging

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Overnight Price: $14.51

Citi rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

Amcor has been battling several operational headwinds, but Citi believes yesterday's decision to lower guidance for the full year suggests the worst may now be behind the company. The result itself was in-line.

While this might be perceived as being positive news, Citi analysts also believe Amcor is suffering from a lack of clear catalysts. Irrespective, Citi's projections are for 3-year EPS CAGR of 7% which is seen as "attractive".

Neutral rating retained. Price target loses -50c and now sits at $15. Market consensus is expected to dial down a notch post the result.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $14.51 Difference: $0.49
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.68, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 59.62 cents and EPS of 82.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 64.80 cents and EPS of 90.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 10.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

First half earnings were as Credit Suisse expected. The broker projects 7-10% growth in earnings per share in FY19-20 as US beverage rigid plastics recover and the Latin American consumer economics strengthen.

Neutral retained. Target is $15.00.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $14.51 Difference: $0.49
If AMC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.68, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 59.62 cents and EPS of 81.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 64.80 cents and EPS of 87.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 10.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates AMC as Buy (1) -

Current headwinds that are putting the brakes on growth are largely transitory in nature, argue Deutsche Bank analysts. Post a better-than-expected interim result, they are sticking with a Buy rating.

In addition, the broker believes acquisitions of Alusa and Sonoco as well as the Flexibles' restructuring initiatives are underpinning future growth. Earnings estimates have been reduced by -2-4% with headwinds partially offset by low tax.

Target price drops to $17.85.

Target price is $17.85 Current Price is $14.51 Difference: $3.34
If AMC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.68, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 64.80 cents and EPS of 86.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 73.87 cents and EPS of 99.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 10.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AMC as Outperform (1) -

First half net profit was ahead of Macquarie's expectations. The downgrade to flexibles guidance did not surprise the broker. The outlook for North American rigids is positive with 1-2% market growth and Amcor maintaining share.

The broker notes the stock is de-rated and is now trading at an 11% premium to the market in FY18. Outperform maintained. Target reduced to $16.15 from $16.60.

Target price is $16.15 Current Price is $14.51 Difference: $1.64
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.68, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 59.36 cents and EPS of 82.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 66.10 cents and EPS of 92.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 10.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Underweight (5) -

First half results were ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates. The broker expects growth to accelerate from FY19 but prefers the more cyclical exposures in its coverage.

Weakness was concentrated in emerging markets, the broker notes. FY18 guidance is softened and modest constant currency EBIT growth is expected in flexibles and a flat outcome in rigids.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Underweight rating, $14.40 target and Cautious industry view.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $14.51 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.68, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 59.62 cents and EPS of 82.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 64.80 cents and EPS of 92.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 10.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates AMC as Hold (3) -

Amcor's result was in line with the broker but while a downward revision to FY guidance was expected, it was larger than assumed. Higher raw material costs, weak beverage volumes in North America and mixed conditions in emerging markets all dragged.

Cost-outs are providing support but organic revenue growth is hard to come by and emerging markets remain difficult. Forecasts trimmed and target dropped to $14.40 from $15.00. Hold retained on valuation.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $14.51 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.68, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.91 cents and EPS of 85.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 64.80 cents and EPS of 90.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 10.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates AMC as Accumulate (2) -

First half net profit was ahead of Ord Minnett estimates. The highlight for the broker was the company's ability to attack its cost base to offset difficult end markets and rising input costs.

Accumulate maintained. Target is reduced to $16.20 from $16.40.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $14.51 Difference: $1.69
If AMC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.68, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 59.62 cents and EPS of 82.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 62.21 cents and EPS of 94.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of 10.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANN  ANSELL LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies

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Overnight Price: $24.06

Citi rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

Reading in between the lines, it appears Ansell's financial performance was more or less as expected, but it disappointed since it was carried by lower than expected tax, plus FX impact, plus the raw material headwinds should now become tailwinds.

More acquisitions can provide additional upside, the analysts acknowledge, but they remain non-enthused, predicting lower margins, while finding the shares' valuation not that cheap.

Target price moves to $24.25 from $24, while Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $24.25 Current Price is $24.06 Difference: $0.19
If ANN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.24, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 57.02 cents and EPS of 131.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 60.26 cents and EPS of 151.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.6, implying annual growth of 14.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates ANN as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

First half earnings were below Credit Suisse forecasts. Raw material costs grew and price increases were not enough to stem the margin decline. The broker downgrades FY18 estimates by -3%.

Credit Suisse believes the stock is more than fully valued and downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $21.75 from $24.00.

Target price is $21.75 Current Price is $24.06 Difference: minus $2.31 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.24, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 58.32 cents and EPS of 126.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 60.91 cents and EPS of 141.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.6, implying annual growth of 14.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates ANN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley is confident in a stronger recovery in the second half. Growth was better-than-expected in the first half, with emerging markets standing out.

The broker suggests the market may be prepared to assign a higher relative multiple to the stock once it is comfortable with the transparency of the first half result.

Rating is Overweight. Target is $27.64 from $25.20. Sector view is In-Line.

Target price is $27.64 Current Price is $24.06 Difference: $3.58
If ANN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.24, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 57.02 cents and EPS of 132.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 63.89 cents and EPS of 149.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.6, implying annual growth of 14.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates ANN as Add (1) -

The divestment of Sexual Wellness, and the transformation process underway, made for a messy result to decipher, but it appears underlying earnings were in line with consensus, the broker notes, supported by the buyback.

Organic sales growth was strong but this was offset by contracting margins, which were expected given higher raw material costs. FY guidance was modestly improved but the broker is forecasting a strong second half, and solid outlook on the back of numerous value drivers.

Add retained, target rises to $26.30 from $23.66.

Target price is $26.30 Current Price is $24.06 Difference: $2.24
If ANN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.24, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 58.32 cents and EPS of 136.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 62.21 cents and EPS of 151.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.6, implying annual growth of 14.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates ANN as Accumulate (2) -

First half profit was -2.8% below estimates. Ord Minnett expects organic growth in the 4-5% range to be maintained over the next 12 months as the company gains share thanks to its alignment with leading distributors.

Stable raw material costs and product pricing should enable rising sales to convert into higher earnings in the second half and into FY19, the broker supposes.

Accumulate retained. Target is reduced to $26.50 from $27.20.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $24.06 Difference: $2.44
If ANN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.24, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 59.62 cents and EPS of 107.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 62.21 cents and EPS of 130.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.6, implying annual growth of 14.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

First half results were broadly in line with UBS estimates. The company upgraded FY18 guidance for earnings per share to US 96-106c to reflect US tax benefits and the share buyback.

UBS is intrigued by the reasons, given industrial growth and raw material pricing had improved significantly since guidance was originally set and the company is now forecasting a substantial benefit from FX.

Hence, the lack of an operations upgrade disappoints the broker. Neutral rating maintained. Target reduced to $25 from $26.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $24.06 Difference: $0.94
If ANN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.24, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 58.32 cents and EPS of 130.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 59.62 cents and EPS of 146.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.6, implying annual growth of 14.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVN  AVENTUS RETAIL PROPERTY FUND

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.15

Macquarie rates AVN as Outperform (1) -

First half results were in line with Macquarie's forecasts and a few earnings headwinds are noted emerging in FY19 and FY20.

Still, the results highlight, in Macquarie's view, the company's ability to grow, because of favourable lease structures and the relative health of its tenant base. Outperform maintained. Target is reduced 3.3% to $2.34.

Target price is $2.34 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.19
If AVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.40, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.20 cents and EPS of 18.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of -53.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.20 cents and EPS of 18.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates AVN as Neutral (3) -

First half results were slightly ahead of UBS estimates, driven by higher-than-expected net property income. UBS now includes announced asset sales in forecasts.

The company is looking to consolidate the fragmented large-format retail asset class and execute on development initiatives rather than opportunistically look to buy back stock at a 10% discount.

Neutral rating retained. Target is $2.40.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.25
If AVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.40, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of -53.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AWE  AWE LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $0.97

Morgan Stanley rates AWE as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight given the corporate approaches for the company. Target price is upgraded to $0.95 from $0.45. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If AWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.88, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 97.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -12.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ  AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $4.60

Macquarie rates AZJ as Outperform (1) -

First half results were slightly weaker than Macquarie expected. The broker notes a strong performance in above and below rail while the removal of Intermodal was a positive.

The company is objecting to the QCA draft decision but is yet to gain support from the miners. Macquarie suggests this is a high risk strategy, and could invoke some type of legislative response and create further uncertainty.

Target is reduced to $4.91 from $5.09. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $4.91 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.31
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.70 cents and EPS of 27.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.10 cents and EPS of 26.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of -1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates AZJ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes the company has adopted an activist approach to the QCA draft UT5 determination and suggests the draft is largely reflected in the share price. Meanwhile, the coal haulage outlook provides some near-term margin for comfort.

The company has announced new above-rail coal contract volumes of around 20mt, ramping up over 2018. FY18 cumulative efficiency targets are confirmed.

Equal-weight rating retained. Target is $4.88. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $4.88 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.28
If AZJ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.10 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.20 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of -1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates AZJ as Hold (3) -

Aurizon's drop in first half profitability was not quite as much as the broker expected. Three long term coal haulage wins were a key positive but the UT5 regulatory decision is providing a material headwind, the broker warns.

Aurizon has advised it will revise its operating & maintenance practices to conform with the Qld draft regulation, which is expected to reduce throughput. If UT5 is finalised in its current form, Aurizon will lose its BBB+ credit rating, which may lead to an equity raising or a higher cost of debt.

Lower D&A expense leads to a target price increase to $4.81 from $4.76. Hold retained.

Target price is $4.81 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.21
If AZJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of -1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates AZJ as Sell (5) -

First half earnings were marginally ahead of Ord Minnett estimates. The broker believes the outlook is heavily clouded by uncertainty regarding the final outcome of UT5.

There are also challenges in the above-rail haulage operations as the company's largest iron ore customer ceases mining earlier than expected. Sell rating retained. $4.15 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of -1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

First half earnings were ahead of UBS forecasts. Three new coal contracts were announced for the above-rail business.

UBS increases forecasts by 1-2%. Revenue pressures, only partially offset by productivity gains, are expected to result in flat earnings for the next five years.

The broker finds insufficient upside for a positive view and retains a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $4.90 from $4.70.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $0.3
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of -1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BEN  BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $11.01

Citi rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

In Citi's opinion, the interim report revealed a "bad debt expense sticker shock" as BDD expense lifted by 15pts of average loans. Pre-provisions the result beat expectations, but it was overly reliant on asset and liability repricing, on the analysts' assessment.

The analysts also note the report revealed a dramatic fall in volumes (both loans and deposits); this is expected to have repercussions for earnings in future periods.

Offsetting these negatives is the growing dividend stream as the capital position will benefit from regulatory changes, point out the analysts. Neutral rating retained. Price target loses -50c to $11.50.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: $0.49
If BEN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.96, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.3, implying annual growth of -1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 81.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.6, implying annual growth of -0.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

While the bank delivered a strong underlying profit outcome in the first half, Credit Suisse believes limited loan balance growth and a competitive margin environment create few opportunities to grow revenue in the near term.

The broker downgrades estimates by -2-4% and reduces the target to $11.50 from $11.90. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: $0.49
If BEN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.96, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.3, implying annual growth of -1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 92.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.6, implying annual growth of -0.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates BEN as Hold (3) -

First half results disappointed Deutsche Bank. The bank's preference for margin over volume was apparent, while the short term outlook is unclear and the broker has reservations, given the competition is also likely to be targeting similar segments to Bendigo & Adelaide.

Hold rating maintained. Target reduced to $11.00 from $11.25.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.96, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.3, implying annual growth of -1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 95.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.6, implying annual growth of -0.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Underweight (5) -

First half results reinforced the front book margin pressure and did not provide confidence for Morgan Stanley regarding short-term costs. The broker suspects that holding margins at the first half levels will be a challenge.

Morgan Stanley believes mortgage growth can increase to around 3%, annualised, and non-housing to around 1% and returning the broker channel to full capacity should assist.

Underweight rating retained, alongside an In-Line sector view. Target reduced to $10.20 from $10.40.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: minus $0.81 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.96, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.3, implying annual growth of -1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.6, implying annual growth of -0.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates BEN as Lighten (4) -

First half net profit was slightly ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. The red flag, in the broker's opinion, related to a higher bad and doubtful debt charge.

The broker considers the outlook tough and, while retail deposit spreads should provide some offset to the margin pressure, is concerned that this lever has already been used in the first half.

Lighten rating retained. Target is reduced to $10.50 from $11.20.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.96, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 85.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.3, implying annual growth of -1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.6, implying annual growth of -0.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates BEN as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

First half results were just shy of expectations. UBS was impressed by the 10 basis points expansion in net interest margin. The bank is a price taker in most products but UBS believes its strong customer offering places it in a good position to reduce deposit costs relative to peers.

Forecasts are upgraded slightly based on the assumption the bank continues to focus on lowering funding costs. Given the fall in the share price UBS upgrades to Neutral from Sell. Target is $10.50.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.96, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.3, implying annual growth of -1.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.6, implying annual growth of -0.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLD  BORAL LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $7.36

Citi rates BLD as Sell (5) -

Citi suspects drier weather than usual along Australia's east coast has contributed around 4% growth in the top line amid an already-supportive industry backdrop.

The broker increases FY18 expectations for the Australian division by 12%. Inflationary pressures from energy and transport are already reflected in the broker's forecasts.

Sell rating. Target is raised to $6.94 from $6.20.

Target price is $6.94 Current Price is $7.36 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.93, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 33.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.1, implying annual growth of 27.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 38.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.3, implying annual growth of 22.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIM  CIMIC GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $45.92

Credit Suisse rates CIM as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Credit Suisse expects 2018 net profit at the top end of guidance. The company is guiding for net profit of $720-780m, up 3-11% on 2017.

The broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform with a new analyst assuming coverage of the stock. Target is raised to $45 from $28. The broker notes the tender pipeline is up 10% on 2017 and cash conversion remains solid.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $45.92 Difference: minus $0.92 (current price is over target).
If CIM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.68, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 238.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 232.6, implying annual growth of 7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 145.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 145.00 cents and EPS of 242.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 269.9, implying annual growth of 16.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 151.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH  JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics

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Overnight Price: $26.21

Citi rates JBH as Sell (5) -

Sales growth was strong in the first half and Citi notes the mid point of FY18 guidance implies second half sales growth of 5%. The company's intention to grow sales and market share at the expense of gross margin reflects the highly competitive market environment, the broker observes.

This market environment remains the key risk, in the broker's opinion, in both the short and longer term. Earnings risks are yet to be fully reflected in the share price and Citi's Sell rating is retained. Target is raised to $21.20 from $21.00.

Target price is $21.20 Current Price is $26.21 Difference: minus $5.01 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.48, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 136.00 cents and EPS of 207.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.1, implying annual growth of 34.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 135.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 141.00 cents and EPS of 216.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates JBH as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse believes the market is too optimistic about the company's margins and suggests gross margin for JB Hi-Fi Australia is about reducing prices to shore up its market position.

Decelerating sales at The Good Guys over the nine months of ownership and a reduction in FY18 guidance is disappointing for the broker. While upgrading FY18 net profit on stronger-than-expected sales for JB Hi-Fi Australia, the broker downgrades expectations for FY19 and FY20.

Underperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $21.36 from $21.02.

Target price is $21.36 Current Price is $26.21 Difference: minus $4.85 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.48, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 132.00 cents and EPS of 200.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.1, implying annual growth of 34.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 135.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 178.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates JBH as Buy (1) -

First half results were in line with Deutsche Bank. The sell-off in the stock is attributed to concerns about gross margin decline and a weak performance from The Good Guys.

Deutsche Bank's channel checks suggests the company has reinvested its operating leverage and synergies into price and service. This is of little concern to the broker, as sales growth is considered the most important metric for any retailer.

Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating and $30 target.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $26.21 Difference: $3.79
If JBH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.48, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 136.00 cents and EPS of 209.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.1, implying annual growth of 34.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 135.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 146.00 cents and EPS of 225.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates JBH as Outperform (1) -

First half results were in line with Macquarie's estimates. The company has provided FY18 net profit guidance of $235-240m.

The broker suggests the profit guidance is conservative and models second half growth of 8.2% in Australia for JB Hi-Fi, 1.8% for The Good Guys and a flat NZ division.

Potential upside to merger synergy benefits and conservative guidance means the broker retains an Outperform rating. Target is $31.30.

Target price is $31.30 Current Price is $26.21 Difference: $5.09
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.48, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 136.00 cents and EPS of 207.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.1, implying annual growth of 34.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 135.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 142.00 cents and EPS of 215.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates JBH as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley was slightly disappointed with the soft FY18 outlook, while noting first half results were strong. The broker believes the JB Hi-Fi Australian business is building a strong economic moat and there is potential with The Good Guys.

The current valuation appears too cheap, given the high single-digit earnings growth outlook. Given a strong track record and market positioning, the broker believes the market is punishing the stock excessively.

Target is $32. Overweight rating. Cautious industry view.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $26.21 Difference: $5.79
If JBH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.48, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 137.00 cents and EPS of 213.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.1, implying annual growth of 34.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 135.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 149.00 cents and EPS of 228.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates JBH as Hold (3) -

JB Hi-Fi reported as the broker expected, with strong Christmas trading undermined by weaker margins due to investment in price. The flagship business exceeded expectations but The Good Guys fell short.

FY guidance was revised upwards but fell short of consensus forecasts. The broker believes that the short-term earnings shortfall from investing in price and market position is worth it - "undoubtedly the right move".

Target falls to $27.05 from $27.34, Hold retained.

Target price is $27.05 Current Price is $26.21 Difference: $0.84
If JBH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.48, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 135.00 cents and EPS of 208.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.1, implying annual growth of 34.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 135.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 146.00 cents and EPS of 224.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates JBH as Accumulate (2) -

First half net profit was ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts, led by JB Hi-Fi Australia. The broker notes the Australian consumer appears stronger than previously expected and is supporting several categories of discretionary retail, including electricals.

Meanwhile, the launch of Amazon in Australia has been underwhelming so far. Accumulate rating and $31.50 target maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $26.21 Difference: $5.29
If JBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.48, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 138.00 cents and EPS of 212.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.1, implying annual growth of 34.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 135.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 148.00 cents and EPS of 227.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

First half results were ahead of expectations. JB Hi-Fi stood out while The Good Guys missed UBS estimates amid softer margins. The broker downgrades FY18-20 estimates by a modest -2-3% to reflect a softer-than-expected trading update.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $25.40 from $25.60.

Target price is $25.40 Current Price is $26.21 Difference: minus $0.81 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.48, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 135.00 cents and EPS of 208.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.1, implying annual growth of 34.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 135.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 138.00 cents and EPS of 211.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.6, implying annual growth of 3.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $19.68

Macquarie rates MIN as No Rating (-1) -

First half results revealed better realised iron ore prices and stronger earnings from mining services. Macquarie notes growth options among several commodities.

The broker is on research restriction and cannot offer a recommendation or target at present.

Current Price is $19.68. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $20.53, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 97.20 cents and EPS of 173.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 160.3, implying annual growth of 48.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 101.80 cents and EPS of 201.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.9, implying annual growth of 49.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND  MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $16.95

Credit Suisse rates MND as Initiation of coverage with Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse expects 20% revenue growth in FY18 and 14% in FY19, driven by maintenance contracts and capital projects in iron ore, infrastructure and other minerals, which should offset a decline in oil & gas capital projects.

The broker expects first half results to be strong but suspects a mixed outlook could disappoint. Credit Suisse initiates coverage with an Underperform rating and $15 target.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $16.95 Difference: minus $1.95 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.12, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 62.32 cents and EPS of 73.31 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.1, implying annual growth of 19.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 71.60 cents and EPS of 84.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.7, implying annual growth of 7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $8.35

Citi rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects the company will undertake to reduce corporate overheads. The broker suggests Origin could remove over -$250m over two years and factors this reduction into numbers.

While remaining confident that the company can remove costs, the broker acknowledges it could be wrong on timing if management decides to concentrate on cost cutting at APLNG first.

Target price drops to $8.97 from $10.26. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $8.97 Current Price is $8.35 Difference: $0.62
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.40, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 61.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.60 cents and EPS of 63.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.0, implying annual growth of 28.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPS  PRAEMIUM LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $0.68

Morgans rates PPS as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Praemium delivered strong margin growth in the first half as revenues outpaced expenses and UK losses shrunk considerably, Morgans notes, as economies of scale kicked in. Higher marketing and technology spend lead to reduced earnings forecasts.

Praemium's separately managed account (SMA) technology is regarded as one of the best platforms available, but a solid valuation requires a high level of revenue growth, Morgans notes. On recent share price strength the broker pulls back to Hold from Add. Target rises to 69c from 55c.

Target price is $0.69 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.01
If PPS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 85.00.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.78.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SBM  ST BARBARA LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $3.83

Ord Minnett rates SBM as Hold (3) -

After a site visit at Gwalia Ord Minnett is comfortable that it can become a 300,000 ozs per annum operation within five years. The broker notes this is a deep underground mine by Australian standards but has excellent mining conditions and a world-class grade.

Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $3.80 from $3.50 because of longer mine life assumptions.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If SBM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.3, implying annual growth of 14.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.7, implying annual growth of -7.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGR  THE STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $6.07

Ord Minnett rates SGR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett expects a drop in first half net profit of -11%. Growth is expected from the Sydney casino operation. The broker notes the company has continued to focus on initiatives to improve domestic revenue and reinvest in the customer.

Negative VIP market conditions have been lessened by direct Southeast Asian marketing. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $6.60 from $6.00.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $6.07 Difference: $0.53
If SGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.26, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of -8.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.9, implying annual growth of 12.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WLD  WELLARD LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $0.14

Morgans rates WLD as Hold (3) -

Wellard posted a highly commendable result in difficult conditions, beating the broker's forecast. Material forecast upgrades follow.

New management has Wellard well placed for when conditions finally improve, the broker suggests, but there remains the issue of a high level of debt. A raising cannot be ruled out. Target rises to 16c from 11c, Hold retained.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.02
If WLD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.00.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
A2M THE A2 MILK CO Buy - Citi Overnight Price $8.34
AMC AMCOR Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $14.51
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $14.51
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $14.51
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $14.51
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $14.51
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $14.51
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $14.51
ANN ANSELL Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $24.06
Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $24.06
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $24.06
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $24.06
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $24.06
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $24.06
AVN AVENTUS RETAIL PROPERTY Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.15
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.15
AWE AWE Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $0.97
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.60
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.60
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $4.60
Sell - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.60
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $4.60
BEN BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $11.01
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $11.01
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $11.01
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $11.01
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $11.01
Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS Overnight Price $11.01
BLD BORAL Sell - Citi Overnight Price $7.36
CIM CIMIC GROUP Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $45.92
JBH JB HI-FI Sell - Citi Overnight Price $26.21
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $26.21
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $26.21
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $26.21
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $26.21
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $26.21
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $26.21
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $26.21
MIN MINERAL RESOURCES No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $19.68
MND MONADELPHOUS GROUP Initiation of coverage with Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $16.95
ORG ORIGIN ENERGY Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $8.35
PPS PRAEMIUM Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.68
SBM ST BARBARA Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.83
SGR STAR ENTERTAINMENT Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $6.07
WLD WELLARD Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $0.14
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

11

2. Accumulate

3

3. Hold

21

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

8

Tuesday 13 February 2018

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