Australian Broker Call

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

The recovery in the US land-based business is occurring faster than Citi previously expected. Around 90% of slot machines which have remained on the floor are being activated and Aristocrat Leisure is outperforming peers given its superior game performance.

Citi also expects outright purchases to begin picking up in FY21. Estimates are upgraded as a result and the broker retains a Buy rating. Target rises to $34.60 from $30.10.

Target price is $34.60 Current Price is $29.15 Difference: $5.45
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.61, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett remains confident that the returns hurdle and track record of Aristocrat Leisure could mean around $7.60 a share in value is added to the sum-of-the-parts valuation with the entry to iGaming.

The broker has incorporated the company's entry into the iGaming market by the second half of FY21.

Estimates are also increased because of the earlier-than-expected re-opening of US casinos. Accumulate retained. Target rises to $38.60 from $28.50.

Target price is $38.60 Current Price is $29.15 Difference: $9.45
If ALL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.61, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Gold seems to be steadying in the US$1,900s led by a better macro outlook for the US, notes Macquarie and expects the price to push higher in 2021. Accordingly, the broker has increased its gold price forecast.

This in turn has led to a material uplift in earnings forecasts for all gold stocks under the broker's coverage, tempered somewhat by the stronger AUD. 

Macquarie believes the impact of the price forecast uplift on Bellevue Gold's earnings will be short lived and holds onto its Outperform rating and the target price of $1.30. 

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.22
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Iron ore prices have pulled back from US$130/t to circa US$120/t but Macquarie reassures the fundamentals for the commodity remain robust. Moreover, Australian shipments remain strong at around/above their guidance ranges while Vale shipments appear to lag.

The broker is positive on BHP Group due to its strong cash flow yields and earnings upgrade momentum.

Outperform rating and target price of $44 reaffirmed.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $36.67 Difference: $7.33
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.36, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie’s oil and gas strategists have reduced their Brent oil price forecasts for the first half of 2021 by -US$3-4/bbl, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$56/bbl.

The lower price reflects a slower oil demand recovery and the broker expects oil price to be range-bound between US$40-US$50/bbl.

Macquarie reaffirms its Outperform rating, with the target price decreasing to $1.65 from $1.70. 

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.28
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 35.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CHC as Neutral (3) -

UBS contemplates the potential opportunity for Charter Hall Group in education facilities/universities.

As a result of covid-19, university revenues are much diminished and existing real estate holdings are likely to be considered as funding options, assesses the broker. As a result, the analyst expects to see the group partner with universities for future 'Innovation Precincts'.

It's considered this will drive an increased development pipeline and long term funds under management (FUM) growth. UBS forecasts 7% asset under management (AUM) growth per year but doesn't explicitly forecast increased FUM from the education sector.

The Neutal rating and target price of $12.25 are unchanged.

Target price is $12.25 Current Price is $12.14 Difference: $0.11
If CHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.75, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHN as Outperform (1) -

An electromagnetic survey by Chalice Gold Mines confirmed the potential for Julimar to extend into the State Forrest and identified three targets within the State Forrest. 

Macquarie assesses the Julimar discovery to be shaping up as one of the most significant in recent years. The strength of the survey prompts the broker to add about $100m to its valuation, leading to a 9% lift in its price target.

Outperform rating retained and target price increases to $2.50 from $2.30.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.23
If CHN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIA as Outperform (1) -

Iron ore prices have pulled back from US$130/t to circa US$120/t but Macquarie reassures the fundamentals for the commodity remain robust. Moreover, Australian shipments remain strong at around/above their guidance ranges while Vale shipments appear to lag.

The broker considers Champion Iron's cash flow yield attractive and retains its Outperform rating with the target price increasing to $3.80 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.74
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Underperform (5) -

Gold seems to be steadying in the US$1,900s led by a better macro outlook for the US, notes Macquarie and expects the price to push higher in 2021. Accordingly, the broker has increased its gold price forecast.

This in turn has led to a material uplift in earnings forecasts for all gold stocks under the broker's coverage, tempered somewhat by the stronger AUD.

Capricorn Metals' Underperform rating remains unchanged with the target price increasing to $1.70 from $1.50. 

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COE as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie’s oil and gas strategists have reduced their Brent oil price forecasts for the first half of 2021 by -US$3-4/bbl, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$56/bbl.

The lower price reflects a slower oil demand recovery and the broker expects oil price to be range-bound between US$40-US$50/bbl.

Neutral rating retained with the target price increasing slightly to $0.37 from $0.36.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.02
If COE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.43, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COH as Sell (5) -

UBS assumes a less favourable cost leverage scenario than the market, and consequently values Cochlear -10% below the current share price.

The broker's analysis reveals uncertainty whether sales and marketing initiatives will result in a lower incremental spend going forward.

The historic rate of Cochlear implants (CI) has relied on the company's continued investment in such operating costs, notes the analyst. However, it's considered that a driver of this continued investment has been the higher cost associated with converting an older CI recipient versus a paediatric candidate. 

As a result, UBS calculates significant profit (NPAT) margin expansion is unlikely, considering adults in the developed world will likely form the vast majority of recipients over the next five to ten years.

The Sell rating and target price of $175 are unchanged.

Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $194.03 Difference: minus $19.03 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $201.33, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CVN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie’s oil and gas strategists have reduced their Brent oil price forecasts for the first half of 2021 by -US$3-4/bbl, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$56/bbl.

The lower price reflects a slower oil demand recovery and the broker expects oil price to be range-bound between US$40-US$50/bbl.

Outperform rating remains intact with the target price decreasing to $0.30 from $0.35. 

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.11
If CVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DCN as Underperform (5) -

Gold seems to be steadying in the US$1,900s led by a better macro outlook for the US, notes Macquarie and expects the price to push higher in 2021. Accordingly, the broker has increased its gold price forecast.

This in turn has led to a material uplift in earnings forecasts for all gold stocks under the broker's coverage, tempered somewhat by the stronger AUD.

Dacian Gold's Underperform rating remains with the target price increasing slightly to $0.34 from $0.30. 

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0
If DCN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DXS as Accumulate (2) -

Office valuations are surprising to the upside, Ord Minnett notes, and foreign capital is the main driver. Dexus is trading in deep-value territory, in the broker's view, at -20% below net tangible asset value.

The broker notes press reports which indicate the company is progressing the sale of several key properties in Sydney and Melbourne. The sales would reduce gearing, all else being equal, to the lowest among the large-cap A-REITs.

Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and $9.65 target.

Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $8.57 Difference: $1.08
If DXS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.35, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Gold seems to be steadying in the US$1,900s led by a better macro outlook for the US, notes Macquarie and expects the price to push higher in 2021. Accordingly, the broker has increased its gold price forecast.

This in turn has led to a material uplift in earnings forecasts for all gold stocks under the broker's coverage, tempered somewhat by the stronger AUD.

Evolution Mining's Neutral rating remains unchanged with the target price increasing to $6.60 from $5.60. 

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.88 Difference: $0.72
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.41, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi observes over the last week the benchmark iron ore price has softened. Investor nervousness remains high as some are concerned that China's steel production will enter a sustained downward correction.

The broker suspects as Golden Week approaches in China mills may well moderate production and defer some purchases. However, ex-China steel production is now starting to recover and will add significantly to demand for both metallurgical coal and iron ore.

Fortescue Metals should be able to provide an FY21/22 dividend of $2.05/$1.31 at a pay-out ratio of 80%, Citi calculates. The broker estimates the share price is now discounting a long-term benchmark iron ore price of US$65/t. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target is $18.50.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $15.87 Difference: $2.63
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.09, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Iron ore prices have pulled back from US$130/t to circa US$120/t but Macquarie reassures the fundamentals for the commodity remain robust. Moreover, Australian shipments remain strong at around/above their guidance ranges while Vale shipments appear to lag.

The broker considers Fortescue Metals Group its preferred pick and notes the stock is trading on a free cash flow yield of 12% (FY21), expected to increase to 17% in the spot price scenario. 

Outperform rating maintained with the target price reducing to $19.50 from $20.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $15.87 Difference: $3.63
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.09, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOR as Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform (1) -

Macquarie has upgraded its earnings forecast for the gold sector driven by an increase in its price forecasts for the commodity.

Gold Road Resources' rating is upgraded to Outperform from Underperform with the target price rising to $1.90 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.31
If GOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GUD as Neutral (3) -

While GUD Holdings may appear attractive in the short term as it is trading at a -23% discount to Bapcor ((BAP)), Citi maintains a Neutral rating. The broker assesses long-term risks from automotive customers intending to grow private-label business.

Also, Citi suspects the company could find it challenging to generate more than modest growth over the medium term without acquisitions or a significant export strategy. Target is $12.75.

Target price is $12.75 Current Price is $10.27 Difference: $2.48
If GUD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.65, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HUO as Resume coverage with Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse resumes coverage with a Neutral rating and $3.35 target. The broker finds encouraging improvements in operating performance following prior environmental and cost problems.

The recent equity raising will also reduce gearing and balance sheet risk. Nevertheless the broker is aware of some uncertainties in the operating environment and assesses Huon Aquaculture needs to prove itself, given a volatile earnings track record.

The $64m underwritten institutional placement was completed at $3 a share with a non-underwritten share purchase plan up to $4m.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.43
If HUO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie’s oil and gas strategists have reduced their Brent oil price forecasts for the first half of 2021 by -US$3-4/bbl, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$56/bbl.

The lower price reflects a slower oil demand recovery and the broker expects oil price to be range-bound between US$40-US$50/bbl.

Outperform rating maintained with the target price rising to $1.37 from $1.25. 

Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.63
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.36, suggesting upside of 83.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MFG as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Magellan Financial Group has announced an investment into a newly established financial services firm named ‘Barrenjoey Capital Partners’. The new firm will provide full service institutional corporate advisory and broking.

The Group’s investment includes $90m cash, 1.2m Magellan Financial Group shares (around $68m) and a $50m working capital facility. The group will have a 40% economic interest. While this is a deviation from the funds management strategy, the start-up is assessed by Morgans as a relatively low outlay versus group capital.

In the core business, steady net inflows have been recorded in the financial year so far, reports the broker. The flows outlook is considered supported by partnership initiatives and the product pipeline.

The analyst views the group as having a quality earnings base and solid growth potential in the core business. Additionally, there is optionality from new ventures and the group is trading on a reasonable multiple, explains Morgans.

The broker views the group’s short-term valuation as reasonable, with strong prospects to deliver future sustainable growth. Market direction and performance fees are considered the near-term forecast swing factors.

The rating is upgraded to Add from Hold and the target price is decreased to $61.05 from $64.05.

Target price is $61.05 Current Price is $54.80 Difference: $6.25
If MFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $59.32, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGX as Outperform (1) -

Iron ore prices have pulled back from US$130/t to circa US$120/t but Macquarie reassures the fundamentals for the commodity remain robust. Moreover, Australian shipments remain strong at around/above their guidance ranges while Vale shipments appear to lag.

The broker is positive on the iron-ore miners and notes Mount Gibson boasts an free cash flow yield of more than 10% at spot prices.

Outperform rating retained with the target price reducing to $0.95 from $1.05.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.21
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Iron ore prices have pulled back from US$130/t to circa US$120/t but Macquarie reassures the fundamentals for the commodity remain robust. Moreover, Australian shipments remain strong at around/above their guidance ranges while Vale shipments appear to lag.

The broker considers Mineral Resources as its preferred mid-cap pick and maintains its Outperform rating. The target price is reduced to $31.60 from $33.5. 

Target price is $31.60 Current Price is $25.17 Difference: $6.43
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.77, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCM as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie has upgraded its earnings forecast for the gold sector driven by an increase in its commodity price forecasts.

Newcrest Mining's earnings forecasts between FY21-25 have seen a strong upgrade mostly due to Cadia's low costs and copper exposure combined with less exposure to the AUD, observes the broker.   

Macquarie upgrades its rating to Neutral from Underperform with the target price rising to $35 from $28.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $31.47 Difference: $3.53
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.17, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NHC as Neutral (3) -

Results fell short of Citi's estimates, with a reported loss of -$157m in FY20 given pre-tax impairments of -$347m. There was no further update on New Acland stage 3.

Citi finds the valuation multiples and dividend yield attractive for FY23 but for coal exposure prefers Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) which trades at a deep discount.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $1.30 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.09
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.28, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NHC as Neutral (3) -

Net profit fell to $84m in FY20, well below expectations. Credit Suisse finds it prudent the dividend has been scrapped and cash flow preservation is the focus.

Bengalla remains the key and recent moves in the thermal coal price should help return it to a free cash flow position, although the company is going to need a catalyst such as the approval of Acland stage 3 to move the share price materially, in the broker's view. Neutral rating and $1.40 target retained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.19
If NHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.28, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Underperform (5) -

New Hope Corp's FY20 results were weaker than expected due to higher costs and the impairments on New Acland. Macquarie points out New Acland Stage 3 is in limbo and has not been included in its forecast with stage 2 currently ramping down.

The broker expects headwinds in the near-term from ramping down of operations at New Acland and the weakness in thermal coal price. Macquarie believes there is material earnings downside risk with FY21-23 earnings shifting to a loss in a spot price scenario.

The broker retains its Underperform rating with the target price reducing to $0.90 from $1.1.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.28, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform (1) -

Macquarie has upgraded its earnings forecast for the gold sector driven by an increase in its commodity price forecasts. Northern Star Resources is one of its preferred picks in the sector.

Progress at the Super Pit and production performance are the key catalysts for Northern Star in FY21, according to the broker.

Macquarie upgrades its rating to Outperform from Underperform with the target price rising to $16.40 from $13.30.

Target price is $16.40 Current Price is $13.90 Difference: $2.5
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.48, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NWS as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley considers the disclosure by News Corp in the briefing on compliance/Dow Jones/Wall Street Journal was incrementally positive. This revealed these businesses are becoming more digital and more subscription based.

The broker increases its valuation for Dow Jones to US$3.2bn and it now represents around 30% of the total enterprise value of News Corp America.

While the base case assumes 100% ownership is maintained for these businesses, Morgan Stanley notes the company has a stated objective to simplify its structure so it remains plausible these assets could be sold or revamped.

Underweight rating and US$11.49 target maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Current Price is $20.67. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $24.14, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie's revised oil price predicts the price to be about US$48/bbl in the first half of 2021 while its second half price forecast has dropped to circa US$43/bbl.

Earnings estimates for FY21-22 have been downgraded to reflect the oil price reduction and lower expected sales.

The broker expects a 40% recovery in both electricity prices and gas/oil prices from current levels although evidence of the rebound is yet to emerge.

Neutral rating maintained with the target reducing to $5.35 from $6.01.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $4.49 Difference: $0.86
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.39, suggesting upside of 39.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OSH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie’s oil and gas strategists have reduced their Brent oil price forecasts for the first half of 2021 by -US$3-4/bbl, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$56/bbl.

The lower price reflects a slower oil demand recovery and the broker expects oil price to be range-bound between US$40-US$50/bbl.

Oil Search is Macquarie's preferred pick and the broker reaffirms its Outperform rating and the target price of $3.45.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.67
If OSH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.53, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PAN as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Upside risk to copper price continues to strengthen, assesses Macquarie. However, Panoramic Resources is expected to report earnings losses in FY21-22. Its operations predominantly involve nickel.

Oz Minerals ((OZL)), Western Areas ((WSA)) and Nickel Mines ((NIC)) are Macquarie's preferred picks while the broker downgrades its rating for Panoramic Resources to Underperform from Neutral due to its recent share price strength.

Target rises slightly to $0.08 from $0.07.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PPH as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse expects FY21 to be "remarkable" with a shift to digital donations accelerating significantly and the platform becoming indispensable to clients.

While acceleration over the last six months may be a pulling forward of demand and creating a challenging base to cycle in FY22, the broker still envisages a significant opportunity.

Credit Suisse also expects Pushpay to exceed FY21 guidance of US$50-54m (EBITDAF), forecasting US$57.2m. Outperform retained. Target rises to NZ$9.30 from NZ$6.54.

Current Price is $7.15. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting downside of -41.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform (1) -

Macquarie has upgraded its earnings forecast for the gold sector driven by an increase in its commodity price forecasts.This outlook drives an increase in the rating and target price for Perseus Mining 

The broker upgrades its rating to Outperform from Underperform with the target rising to $1.70 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.24
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.63, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Iron ore prices have pulled back from US$130/t to circa US$120/t but Macquarie reassures the fundamentals for the commodity remain robust. Moreover, Australian shipments remain strong at around/above their guidance ranges while Vale shipments appear to lag.

The broker is positive on Rio Tinto, highlighting the stock is trading on a free cash flow yield of 12% (2021) which is expected to increase to 13-14% in the spot price scenario. 

Outperform rating maintained with the target price reducing to $113 from $114.

Target price is $113.00 Current Price is $97.00 Difference: $16
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $106.64, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Underperform (5) -

Gold seems to be steadying in the US$1,900s led by a better macro outlook for the US and Macquarie expects the price to push higher in 2021. Accordingly, the broker has increased its gold price forecast.

This in turn has led to a material uplift in earnings forecasts for all gold stocks under the broker's coverage, tempered somewhat by the stronger AUD.

Underperform rating for Regis Resources reaffirmed with the target price increasing to $5.20 from $4.80.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.22 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.70, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

Today's general update on the gold sector (see also elsewhere) has kept Macquarie's Outperform rating in place, with the price target lifting by 10c to $1.50 on positive impact to earnings estimates.

The price target in GBP is 0.83.

Resolute Mining's profitability is expected to jump significantly in 2021.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.55
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SAR as Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform (1) -

Macquarie has upgraded its earnings forecast for the gold sector driven by an increase in its commodity price forecasts. Saracen Mineral Holdings is one of its preferred picks in the sector.

Progress at the Super Pit and production performance are the key catalysts for Saracen in FY21, according to the broker.

Macquarie upgrades its rating to Outperform from Underperform with the target price rising to $6.10 from $4.70.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.04 Difference: $1.06
If SAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as Underperform (5) -

Gold seems to be steadying in the US$1,900s led by a better macro outlook for the US, notes Macquarie and expects the price to push higher in 2021. Accordingly, the broker has increased its gold price forecast.

This in turn has led to a material uplift in earnings forecasts for all gold stocks under the broker's coverage, tempered somewhat by the stronger AUD.

Macquarie keeps St Barbara's Underperform rating intact with the target price increasing slightly to $3.40 from $3.30. 

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: $0.32
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHL as Hold (3) -

The federal government has extended current rates for coronavirus testing and funding and Ord Minnett observes Sonic Healthcare is likely to be a key beneficiary.

Testing rates have also increased in Germany and trends in the US remain positive albeit well below capacity.

The broker revises earnings forecast accordingly, with a 4% increase to FY21 and FY22. The broker retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $35.40 from $34.00.

Target price is $35.40 Current Price is $33.28 Difference: $2.12
If SHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.53, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SLR as Outperform (1) -

Gold seems to be steadying in the US$1,900s led by a better macro outlook for the US, notes Macquarie and expects the price to push higher in 2021. Accordingly, the broker has increased its gold price forecast.

This in turn has led to a material uplift in earnings forecasts for all gold stocks under the broker's coverage, tempered somewhat by the stronger AUD.

Silver Lake Resources' Outperform rating is retained with the target price increasing to $2.90 from $2.60. 

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.52
If SLR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie’s oil and gas strategists have reduced their Brent oil price forecasts for the first half of 2021 by -US$3-4/bbl, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$56/bbl.

The lower price reflects a slower oil demand recovery and the broker expects oil price to be range-bound between US$40-US$50/bbl.

The broker believes Santos will defer its Dorado and Barossa final investment decisions to 2022, allowing more time for balance sheet repair and asset sell downs.

Macquarie holds onto its Neutral rating with the target price decreasing to $5.40 from $5.50. 

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.07 Difference: $0.33
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.54, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SXY as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie’s oil and gas strategists have reduced their Brent oil price forecasts for the first half of 2021 by -US$3-4/bbl, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$56/bbl.

The lower price reflects a slower oil demand recovery and the broker expects oil price to be range-bound between US$40-US$50/bbl.

Outperform rating and target price of $0.40 retained. 

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.07
If SXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes the share price has de-rated amid concerns regarding the dumping investigation in China. If interim tariffs are being imposed this should be known by October 17.

Citi opens a positive "catalyst watch" given the share price already implies a significant step-up in tariffs. The broker has reviewed wine export data and concludes there was no evidence of broad-based dumping of Australian wine in China.

A High Risk is added to the Neutral rating and the target is reduced to $10.05 from $12.65.

Target price is $10.05 Current Price is $8.83 Difference: $1.22
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.74, suggesting upside of 31.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie has upgraded its earnings forecast for the gold sector driven by an increase in its commodity price forecasts. This also drives target price increases for West African Resources.

However, West African Resources' recent share price strength prompts the broker to downgrade its rating to Neutral from Outperform. Target rises to $1.20 from $1.10.  

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.15
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WGX as Outperform (1) -

Gold seems to be steadying in the US$1,900s led by a better macro outlook for the US, notes Macquarie and expects the price to push higher in 2021. Accordingly, the broker has increased its gold price forecast.

This in turn has led to a material uplift in earnings forecasts for all gold stocks under the broker's coverage, tempered somewhat by the stronger AUD.

Westgold Resources' Outperform rating remains unchanged with the target price increasing to $3.20 from $2.90. 

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.8
If WGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie’s oil and gas strategists have reduced their Brent oil price forecasts for the first half of 2021 by -US$3-4/bbl, with the long-term price forecast unchanged at US$56/bbl.

The lower price reflects a slower oil demand recovery and the broker expects oil price to be range-bound between US$40-US$50/bbl.

The broker assumes a Scarborough final investment decision in 2022 which is critical to Woodside Petroleum.

Macquarie reaffirms its Outperform rating with the target price decreasing to $23.50 from $24.40. 

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $18.05 Difference: $5.45
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.14, suggesting upside of 26.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates Z1P as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes solid growth in revenue and transaction value is now annualising at over $4bn. With the impact of the pandemic still driving a large uptick in e-commerce volumes, the broker expects Quadpay growth rates will remain strong.

The broker was encouraged by a number of disclosures regarding Quadpay at the recent results and expects robust outcomes going into the key retail periods of Black Friday/Cyber Monday and in the countdown to Christmas.

Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and raises the target to $6.70 from $6.45.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $6.06 Difference: $0.64
If Z1P meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.80, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources