Australian Broker Call

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May 26, 2020

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CCX - City Chic Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
COF - Centuria Office Reit Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
DOW - Downer Edi Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
FCL - Fineos Corp Upgrade to Buy from Hold Ord Minnett
IAG - Insurance Australia Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
MND - Monadelphous Group Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
SIQ - Smartgroup Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
VOC - Vocus Group Upgrade to Buy from Hold Ord Minnett
WSA - Western Areas Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy Ord Minnett
AGL  AGL ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $16.77

UBS rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

UBS suspects weakening electricity prices will affect forecast earnings. The broker reduces FY20-22 estimates for earnings per share by -3-16%.

The share price declined around -20% over the year to date but the broker considers this largely factoring in the lower wholesale electricity prices.

Meanwhile, the balance sheet is strong and there is around $800m per annum to fund further capital management and/or growth opportunities.

UBS suggests a final investment decision on Crib Point LNG import terminal could enable AGL Energy to win back market share and support the investment in a new flexible gas power station.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $16.60 from $18.00.

Target price is $16.60 Current Price is $16.77 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.38, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 97.00 cents and EPS of 129.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 127.7, implying annual growth of -7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 81.00 cents and EPS of 108.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.7, implying annual growth of -7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 90.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $26.47

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Overweight (1) -

Investment in design and development (D&D) supported by double-digit growth in mobile gaming will increase market share, expects Morgan Stanley. The broker predicts a return to normal growth rates by FY22-23.

Morgan Stanley reaffirms its Overweight rating with target price increased to $30 from $21. Industry view is cautious with a second outbreak considered to be the main risk by the broker.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $26.47 Difference: $3.53
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.89, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.7, implying annual growth of -38.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.0, implying annual growth of 62.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALQ  ALS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $7.01

Citi rates ALQ as Neutral (3) -

Citi adds a High Risk to its Neutral rating. The broker is attracted to resilient sectors such as food & environment but with the extent of the headwinds in mine sampling retains estimates that are -16% below FY21 consensus forecasts.

The broker acknowledges the May 27 result may help in terms of the uncertainty regarding operating segments. Citi estimates an earnings trough in the September half. Target is reduced to $7.34 from $8.90.

Target price is $7.34 Current Price is $7.01 Difference: $0.33
If ALQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.16, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.50 cents and EPS of 39.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.7, implying annual growth of 22.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.50 cents and EPS of 27.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of -18.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AX1  ACCENT GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $1.31

Morgan Stanley rates AX1 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes a consumer rebound will not benefit all retailers equally. Accent Group’s online growth was stronger than peers, reports the broker but excess inventory and a lower AUD could put pressure on the group’s gross margins in the first half of FY21.

The broker is keenly watching Foot Locker’s strategy for the Australia and New Zealand region and believes a decline in the region’s priority for the US player could mean good news for the group’s competitive position.

Overweight maintained by the broker with target increased to $1.50 from $1.40. Industry view is In-line.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.19
If AX1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of -26.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of 16.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCX  CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LTD

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $2.79

Citi rates CCX as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

The company's trading update has revealed online growth has accelerated. The impact of the pandemic on sales has been slight but is offset by the news that gross margins are lower.

The stock has rallied substantially from the March lows and the business remains well-positioned but, at the prevailing share price, Citi assesses good sales and margin results from Avenue are necessary.

There is no margin of safety, hence the broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is raised to $2.85 from $2.50.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $0.06
If CCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.3, implying annual growth of 12.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 11.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of 25.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates CCX as Overweight (1) -

Strong online organic sales, ahead of what Morgan Stanley estimated, have been seen during the store closure period in both Australia and New Zealand (A&NZ) and the US.

Stores have started reopening in the A&NZ region, but the broker expects gross margins to be on the lower side given the higher level of promotional discounts.

Tailwinds from global expansion and the online offering are expected, along with increased bargaining power with landlords.

Morgan Stanley reiterates its Overweight recommendation with a target price of $2.75. Industry view is In-line.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If CCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.3, implying annual growth of 12.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of 25.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COF  CENTURIA OFFICE REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.00

Credit Suisse rates COF as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

While the company has withdrawn guidance for free funds from operations, distribution guidance is maintained for 17.8c, with 13.4c already paid.

In the short term, Credit Suisse considers a defensive equity raising unlikely, with a reduction to dividends a more likely scenario.

While mindful of the risk, the broker considers these are priced into the stock and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $2.16 from $2.91.

Target price is $2.16 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.16
If COF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 10.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of -1.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DOW  DOWNER EDI LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $4.58

Citi rates DOW as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades to Neutral and adds a High Risk to its rating, given the earnings uncertainty and the resulting implications for the balance sheet. The broker cannot rule out the need for new equity, given the uncertainty.

Moreover, productivity impacts from social distancing and supply chain dislocations may put pressure on margins.

Citi remains unconvinced transport will experience a significant increase in projects from government stimulus, given the approvals process, access to skilled labour and raw materials. Target is reduced to $4.90 from $8.70.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $0.32
If DOW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.78, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 25.90 cents and EPS of 12.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of -38.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 32.40 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 25.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EHE  ESTIA HEALTH LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors

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Overnight Price: $1.56

Ord Minnett rates EHE as Hold (3) -

In Ord Minnett's view, Estia Health has handled the pandemic well, avoiding any outbreaks despite some employees testing positive. However, additional government funding is one-off in nature and does little to address the sector's challenges.

Moreover, deaths at other affected care homes have done little to improve community perceptions of residential aged care.

The broker remains concerned about the risk of a cash squeeze if the popularity of refundable accommodation deposits fades and property prices drop. Hold maintained. Target is reduced to $1.75 from $2.15.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.19
If EHE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of -38.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of -4.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FCL  FINEOS CORPORATION HOLDINGS PLC

Cloud services

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Overnight Price: $3.60

Ord Minnett rates FCL as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Ord Minnett updates forecasts to account for the modestly better third quarter result and takes a slightly more conservative view on professional services.

The company has underperformed both domestic and global peers since late April, despite offering an attractive growth outlook. Looking forward, the broker upgrades to Buy from Hold. Target edges up to $3.60 from $3.59.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.60 Difference: $0
If FCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 450.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 400.00.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG  INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $5.81

Credit Suisse rates IAG as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The share price has significantly underperformed over the past two months, Credit Suisse observes.

To date, there is no indication of a significant fall in commercial lines although the broker acknowledges there are more developments likely to ensue in coming months.

Having allowed for a higher perils allowance and lower bond yields, Credit Suisse continues to expect premium rates will exceed claims inflation.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral as the entry price is now considered attractive. Target is raised to $6.40 from $5.70.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.81 Difference: $0.59
If IAG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.33, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of -51.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.5, implying annual growth of 95.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX  JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES N.V.

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $25.58

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

James Hardie Industries released its full-year results pointing at higher than expected asbestos liabilities driven by a notable increase in cross-claims.

Morgan Stanley has increased estimates for claim payments by 10% over the next five years, peaking in FY22 rather than FY21. The broker also forecasts reduced cash flows due to covid-19 led lower earnings.

Overweight rating retained by the broker given the company’s competitive advantage and growth opportunities. The target price is unchanged at $32. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $25.58 Difference: $6.42
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.54, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 35.70 cents and EPS of 99.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 65.45 cents and EPS of 141.31 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.9, implying annual growth of 28.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYC  LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals

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Overnight Price: $2.07

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett, while not incorporating the US tender for a heavy rare earth (RE) plant into valuation, flags the strong upside potential. The tender submissions are due by December 16.

If completed, this would be the first financial investment by the US military in a resources project since the Manhattan project in World War II. Ord Minnett reiterates a Buy rating and $4.90 target for Lynas Corp.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $2.83
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 137% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.56.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.19.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND  MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $11.71

Citi rates MND as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

The company's balance sheet is the strongest in Citi's coverage, courtesy of having negligible debt. The broker likes the combination of relative resilience in mining, coupled with optimism regarding the pace of recovery in energy from 2021.

The broker expects mining will be underpinned by the iron ore mine replacement cycle into FY22. Rating is upgraded to Buy/High Risk from Neutral and the target reduced to $14.35 from $15.90.

Target price is $14.35 Current Price is $11.71 Difference: $2.64
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.77, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 50.50 cents and EPS of 32.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of -23.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 61.90 cents and EPS of 63.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.6, implying annual growth of 37.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEC  NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV

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Overnight Price: $1.52

Morgan Stanley rates NEC as Overweight (1) -

Nine Entertainment’s exit from New Zealand is viewed by Morgan Stanley as a positive development. The sale has removed a contingent liability, comments the broker, expecting it to settle by May 31, 2020.

Overweight rating maintained by the broker with a decrease in target price to $1.90 from $2.30. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.38
If NEC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.86, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 13.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of -35.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.4, implying annual growth of 7.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWH  NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $1.97

Citi rates NWH as Buy (1) -

Relative to peers, Citi prefers the company's almost pure exposure to the mining sector as this is the most resilient sector in the current crisis.

The broker also likes the fact the company fabricates locally and does not have the same level of supply chain disruption as that experienced by Monadelphous ((MND)).

Possible contract wins from Western Australian public infrastructure expenditure represent upside risk, although this is not required to justify the Buy rating.

Citi now designates a High Risk, given earnings uncertainty and resulting implications for the balance sheet. Target is reduced to $2.79 from $3.70.

Target price is $2.79 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: $0.82
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.20 cents and EPS of 21.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.08.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 23.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.38.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $5.71

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Lower wholesale prices translate to lower earnings for Origin Energy's generation fleet. Yet, having revised forecasts materially lower, UBS believes the valuation reflects considerable downside risk and the stock still offers more than 30% upside to the current price.

Moreover, the company's net short position and access to around 6TW hours of peaking generation reduces its exposure to falling average wholesale prices. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $7.40 from $7.90.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $5.71 Difference: $1.69
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.71, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.1, implying annual growth of -17.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of -53.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE  QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $8.16

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

QBE Insurance Group clarified any covid-19 induced business interruption (BI) claims in the UK will be limited by reinsurance. This has cleared up the group’s potential exposure and put broker Morgan Stanley at ease.

The broker notes less ambiguity on covid-19 claims in Australia due to different policy wording yet allows for circa -$70m in its FY20-21 forecasts for commercial property claims including BI claims.

The broker maintains its Overweight rating with a target price of $12. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $8.16 Difference: $3.84
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.65, suggesting upside of 30.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 26.77 cents and EPS of minus 1.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 548.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -21.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 63.96 cents and EPS of 68.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCG  SCENTRE GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.44

Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assumes rent rates will be lowered by -20% once covid-19 related temporary relief measures come to an end. This will be driven by a combination of increasing vacancies, low sales recovery and low rent for mini-major and anchor stores.

The broker feels Scentre Group will recover faster than other retail dominant REITs. The group’s malls are located in wealthier areas with population density on the higher side.

On the flip side, the discretionary nature of consumption also implies sales will depend on the well-being of consumers.

Overweight rating retained with a target price of $2.20. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.60 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of -17.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.40 cents and EPS of 18.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 21.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR  SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL

Copper

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Overnight Price: $4.45

Credit Suisse rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Sandfire has reinstated FY20 operating guidance. Guidance was withdrawn as a precaution at the March quarter result but there has been no discernible impact on operations from the pandemic to date.

While there is no insight into expected mining grades, assuming no downtime at the plant, Credit Suisse observes the top end of copper guidance is achievable. Gold production is also tracking comfortably within expectations.

Outperform rating and $5.70 target retained.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: $1.25
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.89 cents and EPS of 44.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.9, implying annual growth of -37.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.52 cents and EPS of 38.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of 36.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHV  SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $6.69

UBS rates SHV as Buy (1) -

The first half result was below UBS estimates, although with one-off costs likely to reverse in the second half, the broker's expectations for the second half are unchanged.

Pricing commentary was the main negative, with pandemic-related market access issues, primarily in India, driving the spot price down to $7-7.5/kg versus Select Harvests' FY20 average price of $8.20/kg.

Still, demand-side impacts are expected to be largely temporary and pricing is expected to stabilise once the US harvest commences.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $8.15 from $9.00.

Target price is $8.15 Current Price is $6.69 Difference: $1.46
If SHV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 38.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.24.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 40.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.36.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SIQ  SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LTD

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

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Overnight Price: $6.59

Morgans rates SIQ as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans suspects the operating environment is improving faster than previously expected. The broker also observes Smartgroup's balance sheet is solid and any earnings recovery is likely to be undiluted.

That said, earnings are not expected to recover to historical levels in FY21, primarily because of a material loss in revenue from add-on insurance sales.

However, the broker envisages value on base case expectations and upgrades to Add from Hold. Target is raised to $6.95 from $6.58.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $6.59 Difference: $0.36
If SIQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.4, implying annual growth of -9.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.0, implying annual growth of 22.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TYR  TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $3.80

Ord Minnett rates TYR as Accumulate (2) -

Tyro Payments has highlighted a rapid recovery in trading conditions as a result of the easing of social distancing measures. Ord Minnett expects the recovery will accelerate from the start of June as pubs and restaurants will be allowed to open to up to 50 people.

A further re-opening of retail stores is expected as shopping centre foot traffic improves. Accumulate rating and $3.90 target maintained.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.1
If TYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.30, suggesting downside of -13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 76.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 95.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VCX  VICINITY CENTRES

REITs

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Overnight Price: $1.69

Morgan Stanley rates VCX as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley assumes rent rates will be lowered by -20% once covid-19 related temporary relief measures come to an end. This is driven by an increase in vacancy and reduction in sales recovery, lower occupancy costs and lower rent for mini-major and anchor stores, reports the broker.

Some of Vicinity Centre's assets including DFO outlets and CBD malls are of the highest quality, notes the broker but is uncomfortable due to high portfolio exposure to regional and neighbourhood assets where rent is uncertain or assets in need of capital expenditure.

Also, the group has a large number of assets exposed to tourism, adding to the uncertainty.

Underweight rating maintained by the broker with a target price of $1.25. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.30 cents and EPS of 12.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of 68.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.80 cents and EPS of 12.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of -2.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VOC  VOCUS GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication

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Overnight Price: $3.01

Ord Minnett rates VOC as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Vocus is part way through a growth strategy over three years that is expected to generate higher returns in the network segment. Ord Minnett envisages upside in the risk/reward balance during FY21.

The company has assets in desirable areas of market growth that are on track to generate higher free cash flow and returns on capital, in the broker's view.

Meanwhile, the company is seeking to refinance debt facilities and Ord Minnett expects this will be supported.

Organic growth is expected to support free cash flow growth in debt repayments during FY21 and FY22. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target is reduced to $3.47 from $4.00.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.47 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $0.46
If VOC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 207.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOR  WORLEY LIMITED

Energy Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $9.21

Citi rates WOR as Buy (1) -

Citi finds the increased exposure to O&M contracts attractive as well as the re-engineering of upstream energy projects.

The broker assesses there is not an acceptable price being paid for the fact that low oil prices are unsustainable, which leads to the potential for a sharp recovery in activity levels in 2021.

There is upside for Worley in being able to increase its market share through an oil reflation phase.

The downside risk is envisaged through emerging markets exposure if the pandemic disproportionately affects them. Citi adds a High Risk to its Buy rating and reduces the target to $12.20 from $17.00.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $9.21 Difference: $2.99
If WOR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.84, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 58.10 cents and EPS of 66.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.0, implying annual growth of 122.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 69.10 cents and EPS of 80.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.4, implying annual growth of -5.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WSA  WESTERN AREAS NL

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $2.26

Citi rates WSA as Neutral (3) -

Western Areas will take a 19.9% stake in Panoramic Resources ((PAN)) for $29m. The stake, Citi notes, buys the company an option for less than 5% of its market cap and precludes another coming on board.

The broker considers this an investment rather than a precursor for an acquisition. Neutral rating and $2.50 target maintained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.24
If WSA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 241.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of -14.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates WSA as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Western Areas will acquire up to 19.9% of Panoramic Resources ((PAN)). Panoramic will use proceeds to repay all debt and re-start the Savannah nickel mine. Western Areas will fund the investment from cash.

In time, Ord Minnett suspects this should turn out to be an astute investment. In view of the recent strength in the share price, the broker downgrades to Accumulate from Buy. Target is $2.20.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 241.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of -14.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AGL AGL Energy $16.77 UBS 16.60 18.00 -7.78%
ALL Aristocrat Leisure $26.47 Morgan Stanley 30.00 21.00 42.86%
ALQ ALS Limited $7.01 Citi 7.34 8.90 -17.53%
AX1 Accent Group $1.31 Morgan Stanley 1.50 1.40 7.14%
CCX City Chic $2.79 Citi 2.85 2.50 14.00%
COF Centuria Office Reit $2.00 Credit Suisse 2.16 2.91 -25.77%
DOW Downer Edi $4.58 Citi 4.90 8.00 -38.75%
EHE Estia Health $1.56 Ord Minnett 1.75 2.15 -18.60%
FCL Fineos Corp $3.60 Ord Minnett 3.60 3.59 0.28%
IAG Insurance Australia $5.81 Credit Suisse 6.40 5.70 12.28%
LYC Lynas Corp $2.07 Ord Minnett 4.90 4.60 6.52%
MND Monadelphous Group $11.71 Citi 14.35 15.90 -9.75%
NEC Nine Entertainment $1.52 Morgan Stanley 1.90 2.30 -17.39%
NWH NRW Holdings $1.97 Citi 2.79 3.70 -24.59%
ORG Origin Energy $5.71 UBS 7.40 7.90 -6.33%
SHV Select Harvests $6.69 UBS 8.15 9.00 -9.44%
SIQ Smartgroup $6.59 Morgans 6.95 6.58 5.62%
VOC Vocus Group $3.01 Ord Minnett 3.47 4.00 -13.25%
WOR Worley $9.21 Citi 12.20 17.00 -28.24%
Summaries
AGL AGL Energy Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $16.77
ALL Aristocrat Leisure Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $26.47
ALQ ALS Limited Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $7.01
AX1 Accent Group Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.31
CCX City Chic Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $2.79
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.79
COF Centuria Office Reit Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.00
DOW Downer Edi Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $4.58
EHE Estia Health Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.56
FCL Fineos Corp Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.60
IAG Insurance Australia Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.81
JHX James Hardie Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $25.58
LYC Lynas Corp Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.07
MND Monadelphous Group Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $11.71
NEC Nine Entertainment Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.52
NWH NRW Holdings Buy - Citi Overnight Price $1.97
ORG Origin Energy Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.71
QBE QBE Insurance Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $8.16
SCG Scentre Group Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.44
SFR Sandfire Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.45
SHV Select Harvests Buy - UBS Overnight Price $6.69
SIQ Smartgroup Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $6.59
TYR Tyro Payments Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.80
VCX Vicinity Centres Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.69
VOC Vocus Group Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.01
WOR Worley Buy - Citi Overnight Price $9.21
WSA Western Areas Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $2.26
Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.26
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

19

2. Accumulate

2

3. Hold

6

5. Sell

1

Tuesday 26 May 2020

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