Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 3PL as Overweight (1) -

At first glance, 3P Learning's FY21 result pleased the broker.

Several changes occurred post-merger with Blake eLearning that were not included in Morgan Stanley's modelling, undermining comparisons.

But the company has provided its first clear guidance, forecasting business-to-customer growth despite covid impacts; a Mathletics contribution to sales growth from FY23; and upside from enterprise wins.

Overweight rating retained: Target price steady at $1.60. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.35
If 3PL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

In a first look at a2 Milk Company's full year results, Citi notes net profit of $91m was a -13% miss on the broker's forecast. The company has also increased loss guidance for the next 11 months to -$20m from -$10m given uncertainty around third party volumes. 

Citi noted positives of the FY21 results included better-than-expected operating cash flow, and a beat in Australia and New Zealand underlying earnings. 

The company has not provided FY22 earnings guidance but expects lower revenue in the first half of FY22 compared to the first half of FY21, but higher revenue in the second half of FY22. It is Citi's view this turnaround is optimistic. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $6.05 are retained. 

Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $6.86 Difference: minus $0.81 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.43, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ABC as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes while Adbri was on a path to earnings recovery prior to lockdowns, identified headwinds as the company moves into the second half of FY21 will make earnings growth difficult to deliver. 

The broker highlighted volumes in New South Wales were down -25% in August compared to pre-lockdown levels. The company has identified a number of infrastructure project tenders in the fourth quarter of FY21 and the first half of FY22, but Citi's view is the path to volume recovery is volatile. 

Citi is forecasting earnings to fall by -20% in the second half, despite the expected $8m in cost savings. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.50 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.04
If ABC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.29, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ABC as Underperform (5) -

Adbri's first-half FY21 earnings were -1% below consensus, -9% below Credit Suisse (ex property) and the company estimates a -$5m earnings impact from lockdowns in July/August.

First half FY21 earnings margins (ex-property) were -70bps below consensus and -150bps below Credit Suisse.

Credit Suisse notes while the company delivered good volume growth, disappointment arose due to strong second half FY20 margins, which led the broker to upgrade FY21, that have not carried through into first-half FY21 despite very strong first half FY21 volumes.

The broker has lowered net profit estimates -17% in FY21, and -9% in FY22.

Credit Suisse retains its Underperform rating with the target lowering to $2.30 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: minus $1.16 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.29, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ABC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

First half results beat Macquarie's expectations. Adbri is progressing with increasing its infrastructure exposure, the broker ascertains.

Macquarie believes market conditions have bottomed and most of the structural headwinds such as lime and NSW cement are now more evident in terms of the impact.

Valuation is also more supportive and the broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $3.80 from $3.20.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.34
If ABC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.29, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ABC as Equal-weight (3) -

Adibri's CY21 first-half result broadly outpaced Morgan Stanley's estimates.

The broker voices concerns over lockdowns and the impending loss of Alcoa volumes in the second half, noting consensus estimates imply a -15% fall in second-half earnings.

But July to August sales were in line or outpaced the broker, and management has guided to second-half cost cuts.

Morgan Stanley is forecasting a -7% earnings pullback and lifts earnings estimates for FY22 and FY23 by 3% and 4% to reflect recovery from lockdowns.

The broker believes the stock is well-positioned to meet any uptick in materials demand and that the 18x price-earnings multiple is undemanding.

Equal-weight rating and $3.30 target price retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.29, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ABC as Hold (3) -

Further to the initial reaction, Ord Minnett downgrades estimates for 2021-23 by -5% per annum on average. While volumes were up across all products in the first half the results were short of expectations.

No quantitative guidance has been provided. Second half earnings are expected to be affected by the reduction of lime volumes to Alcoa and restrictions on construction activity. Hold maintained. Target is reduced to $3.35 and $3.50.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If ABC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.29, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ABC as Neutral (3) -

First half results reflect headwinds specific to the company, UBS assesses. Lime pricing and margins remain under pressure because of volume losses.

While short-term earnings carry upside from property sales, the broker believes structural headwinds in South Australia, coupled with increased competition in other markets, make the outlook challenging.

Despite mitigation measures taken by management UBS believes lime margins are permanently re-set around -650 basis points lower as a result of contract losses and changes to mix. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $3.50 from $3.75.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.04
If ABC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.29, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ACF as Add (1) -

Acrow Formwork and Construction Services' full year revenue and underlying earnings were both largely in line with Morgans' expectations, but the broker notes a higher tax rate drove a miss on underlying net profit. 

The broker highlighted strong revenue growth of 19% and 114% in Formwork and Industrial Services respectively, while Commercial Scaffold revenue was down -10%. 

The company is guiding to underlying earnings growth of more than 20% and net profit growth of more than 40% in FY22. Morgans increases earnings per share forecasts by 3%, 5% and 19% through to FY24. 

The Add rating is retained and the target price increases to $0.56 from $0.55. 

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.11
If ACF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ACL as Neutral (3) -

In an initial glance at FY21 results, Citi notes pro-forma profit was 6% above the mid-point of guidance given in early June, due to elevated covid-19 testing late in the year, following the recent outbreaks.

Management guided to a rise in 1H22 profit to $48-53m versus the broker's $19m estimate, due to the high covid testing. Consensus forecast upgrades are expected. Neutral rating and $3.80 target price.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $4.20 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If ACL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMA as Neutral (3) -

In a further update to the FY21 results, UBS incorporates a five-month pandemic impact in the panel repair segment for the first half and reduces estimates for earnings per share by -53%.

Downgrades to FY23-24 reflect delayed acquisition benefits and marginally slower recovery in the panel segment. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $0.45 from $0.56.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.01
If AMA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

FY21 results were strong and net profit better than Macquarie expected. The broker maintains a view that the Federation/Hera project has potential to materially improve the cost outlook in the long-term through a boost to by-product production.

The company's intention to increase processing capacity to around 600,000tpa is also considered an indication of the potential at Federation. Outperform retained. Target is $0.50.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.15
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AOF as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Australian Unity Office Fund reported FY21 funds from operations in line with Ord Minnett. FY22 guidance nevertheless disappointed, given the potential plan to divest of an asset in Paramatta in the third quarter, albeit marketing is still ongoing.

The REIT remains in discussions with Telstra with regard a block in Adelaide, but covid is slowing the process. There was no new news on the progress of the proposed merger with the unlisted Diversified Property Fund.

The REIT trades at an attractive discount to asset value but given uncertainty regarding both lease expiries and the merger, the broker downgrades to Hold from Accumulate. Target falls to $2.41 from $2.43.

Target price is $2.41 Current Price is $2.49 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If AOF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates APA as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

APA Group's FY21 earnings of $1,633m were -1% below consensus, while net profit was -7% below. Earnings guidance is no longer provided, which Credit Suisse believes detracts from the perceived quality of APA.

The company indicated lower interest cost and tax payable would contribute to FY22 free cash flow (FCF) growth, plus higher CPI, while
growth capex in recent years would benefit from FY23 which was inline with the broker's forecasts.

Credit Suisse downgrades APA to Neutral from Outperform and the target price is lowered $9.90 from $10.80.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $9.66 Difference: $0.24
If APA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.22, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APA as Equal-weight (3) -

APA Group's FY21 results fell -1% shy of Morgan Stanley and consensus forecasts, and at the lower end of guidance. Corporate costs and net interest costs were higher than expected triggering a decent miss on free cash flow.

The broker spies tailwinds in inflation, interest and tax; but these are likely to be consumed by ongoing investment in development, process automation and governance, with management guiding to higher-than-expected capital expenditure of $1.3bn over FY22 to FY23.

The company is developing interim net zero targets this year. Target price rises to $9.99 from $9.65. Equal-weight rating. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $9.99 Current Price is $9.66 Difference: $0.33
If APA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.22, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APA as Add (1) -

FY21 earnings (EBITDA) were a -1% miss versus consensus forecasts, while operating cashflow was a 2% beat. First-time DPS guidance for FY22 was for 3.9% growth to 53cps, broadly in-line with consensus expectations.

Management noted challenging market conditions.The broker retains its Add rating and lowers its target to $10.13 from $10.53. 

As well as having ample liquidity, the group was able to self-fund sustaining capex, distributions and growth capex from operating cashlow, points out the analyst.

Target price is $10.13 Current Price is $9.66 Difference: $0.47
If APA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.22, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APA as Accumulate (2) -

FY21 underlying operating earnings (EBITDA) were marginally below Ord Minnett’s estimate, and at the low end of the guidance range. An unfranked final dividend of 27cps was declared and the full year dividend of 51cps was in-line with the analyst's estimate.

The broker expects earnings growth to be modest in FY22, with a contribution from development projects not likely until FY23. As infrastructure assets are commanding a premium valuation, the company is expected to perform in the current environment.

Ord Minnett retains its Accumulate rating and $10.75 target price.

Target price is $10.75 Current Price is $9.66 Difference: $1.09
If APA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.22, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APA as Buy (1) -

In further analysis of FY21 results, UBS believes increasing gas supply constraints on the east coast can provide a tailwind for the North-South interconnected pipeline network.

This supports the broker's forecast that APA Group can generate around 4% growth in free cash flow and distributions from FY21-25.

UBS reduces EBITDA estimates by -4-5%, moderating assumptions amid higher corporate costs. Buy rating unchanged. Target is reduced to $10.50 from $11.20.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.66 Difference: $0.84
If APA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.22, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates APT as Outperform (1) -

While pre-reported or implied, Afterpay's FY21 earnings were -56% below Credit Suisse and -60% below consensus, with one-third of the miss relating to larger-than-expected credit losses and two-thirds relating to higher expenses.

The company reported a merchant fee margin of 3.98% in second half FY21, in line with second half FY20 (4.00%).

While profitability is limited at the moment as Afterpay invests to build a global business, scale, and optionality, Credit Suisse expects this to improve in time.

The broker has lowered earnings estimates by -24%, -9%, and -6% in FY22, FY23, and FY24 for higher expenses and credit losses.

Outperform rating is unchanged and the target is increased to $147 from $133.

Target price is $147.00 Current Price is $133.50 Difference: $13.5
If APT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $141.68, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APT as Outperform (1) -

FY21 results were largely pre-reported and margins were weaker than expected, although Macquarie points out this is unlikely to be in the market's line of sight.

Despite the increasing competitive landscape the broker believes Afterpay has relative advantage. More opportunities to monetise revenue streams in 2022 are anticipated although greater losses are expected from geographical expansion.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and $160 target.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $133.50 Difference: $26.5
If APT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $141.68, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APT as No Rating (-1) -

Afterpay's FY21 result fell -60% short of consensus and -55% short of Morgan Stanley, thanks largely to the US operations and lower late fees.  

Gross margins were in line but net margins disappointed and marketing costs outpaced. On the upside, the company generated 360m annualised lead referrals in the second half.

The broker expects the enablement of 25% of US app users on one-time virtual or affiliate cards and non-integrated merchants should yield a 5%-6% merchant margin when it ramps up in the second half; and the launch of Afterpay Ads may provide a new income stream to monetise the Shopping Directory (testing signalling a 20% sales rise). 

The Australian business was faring well and the company is piloting Money by Afterpay, which is set to launch in October. The broker expect this may double Australian revenues while cutting costs.

Overall, the broker forecasts steady margins and improved revenue for FY22. The broker is restricted from providing a rating or target price. Industry view: In-Line.

Current Price is $133.50. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $141.68, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates APT as Hold (3) -

Morgans downgrades FY22 and FY23 EPS forecasts by -20% and -30% on higher operating expense forecasts. The company reported an FY21 loss of -$159m, much worse than the consensus forecast of -$81m, largely due to some one-offs.

The broker concludes it is a broadly solid result, again highlighting strong sales momentum and relatively stable key margins. With the shares trading broadly in-line with the target price of $132.10 (up from $123.40), the broker retains its Hold rating.

The analyst feels the share price is likely to be dictated by Square’s US price until deal completion.

Target price is $132.10 Current Price is $133.50 Difference: minus $1.4 (current price is over target).
If APT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $141.68, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APT as Buy (1) -

Further to the FY21 results, Ord Minnett makes modest changes to revenue forecasts. EBITDA estimates are reduced by -18-36% as fixed costs investment has increased. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $146 from $150.

Target price is $146.00 Current Price is $133.50 Difference: $12.5
If APT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $141.68, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APT as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Top-line metrics for FY21 were known following the trading update in July while UBS was mostly surprised by the 159% increase in second half sales and marketing costs.

Although the higher costs would have originally disappointed the market, the focus is now on the proposed acquisition by Square. The broker has now assumed the acquisition as a base case valuation and upgrades to Neutral from Sell, raising the target to $140 from $42.

UBS believes the ambitions for both companies are complementary and overlapping and this may attract regulatory scrutiny that is not priced in by the market.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $133.50 Difference: $6.5
If APT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $141.68, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APX as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Appen's 2021 first-half result beat Citi's forecast by 2% but missed consensus by -16%, due to operating deleverage as revenue slipped -2%.

The company took -$2.5m of restructuring costs below the line, causing statutory earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to fall -7% shy of the broker.

The company enjoys a solid pipeline of work and is working on new projects with global customers (new markets revenue outpaced), and is successfully expanding into mobile location through the Quadrant acquisition. Cash conversion was solid.

On the downside, committed revenue fell, Global Services Revenue fell; EBITDA margins slumped on weaker gross margins and labour hires; and operating cash flow fell -5% shy of the broker.

The company lowers the guidance range to account for the Quadrant acquisition, implying a -4% downgrade to Citi's forecast; and the broker flags a possible consensus downgrade for FY22.

Buy rating and $18.80 target.

Target price is $18.80 Current Price is $13.82 Difference: $4.98
If APX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.55, suggesting upside of 69.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASB as Outperform (1) -

FY21 EBIT was in line with recently revised guidance. US shipbuilding continues to perform strongly. Macquarie highlights the limited visibility over the LCS transition in FY22-25.

Still, the company's strong performance in the LCS and EPF programs should provide a competitive position for tenders. Contract wins remain the key catalyst.

Outperform retained. Target falls to $2.70 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.62
If ASB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.60, suggesting upside of 33.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AUB as Buy (1) -

At first glance, AUB Group's FY21 result fell -1.4% shy of Ord Minnett's forecast, and the dividend fell -3.5% short.

Overall, the result was solid. Premium retention was strong at 93%; the company logged FY21 and 2H21 Australian average commercial premium rate rises of 6.2% and 5.5%; margins strengthened; and the gearing ratio improved.

Management guided to FY22 growth of between 15.7% and 20.7%. The broker says the outlook assumes 5%-6% rate increases.

Buy rating and $21.98 target price. Risk rating: Higher.

Target price is $21.98 Current Price is $25.38 Difference: minus $3.4 (current price is over target).
If AUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.70, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BVS as Outperform (1) -

FY21 results were in line with guidance although Macquarie notes the low quality and the UK continued to disappoint. FY22 guidance is also disappointing, amid a return to lockdowns.

The CEO has departed suddenly, and while there is always a risk of re-basing with a new CEO, Macquarie argues a lot of re-basing has already been done.

Given the recent track record a fresh view of the business could be what is required to regain market confidence, the broker adds. Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $3.45 from $4.00.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.16 Difference: $0.29
If BVS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCX as Accumulate (2) -

At first glance, Ord Minnett observes that City Chic reported an 81% increase in FY21 underlying net profit to $24.9m, 2% ahead of the broker's forecast and largely in line with expectations. 

In terms of outlook commentary, thus far in FY22, Ord Minnett notes that City Chic has continued a “strong positive top-line and comparable sales growth”.

While Australia has been impacted by store closures, in the US, Avenue continues to trade strongly, well above pre-acquisition levels.

Overall, Ord Minnett believes the company's omni-channel positioning, with over two-thirds of sales online, has ensured its trading performance has remained relatively resilient.

The broker also believes the company is well-positioned for growth given additional store openings and further online penetration into offshore markets.

Accumulate rating and target of $6.25.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $5.47 Difference: $0.78
If CCX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGC as Neutral (3) -

In an initial glance at first half results, Citi notes earnings (EBITDA-S) and profit (NPAT-S) were in-line with expectations and company guidance. The Neutral rating and $3.72 target price are unchanged.

The International segment earnings (EBITDA) were 20% stronger than expected, while Produce was a -25% miss. Profit guidance for 2021 was reaffirmed and the analyst believes many of the domestic produce risks appear to have dissipated.

Target price is $3.72 Current Price is $3.39 Difference: $0.33
If CGC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DBI as Buy (1) -

It is Citi's view that Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure's in-line first half results highlight the quality and income generating ability of the asset. The company reported underlying earnings of $93.7m, 1% ahead of Citi's forecast. 

Looking forward, Citi described the company's outlook as incrementally positive. The broker assumes the 8x expansion will go ahead, although it is waiting on regulatory determination. 

The Buy rating and target price of $2.51 are retained. 

Target price is $2.51 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $0.27
If DBI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.63, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates DBI as Outperform (1) -

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure reported underlying first-half FY21 earnings of $93.7m, in line with Credit Suisse forecasts, and the net financing cost was -20%, -$10m lower than the broker's forecast due to fair value adjustments and hedging gains.

After the economic regulator, QCA, agreed on a change to a light-touch regulatory structure earlier this year, the company is in the process of negotiating commercial agreements with customers for access to the coal terminal.

The broker expects the company to get a better pricing outcome than would be available under the previous RAB-based regulatory structure, and has raised net profit forecasts 25% for 2021 and 18% for 2022 on lower financing costs.

The Outperform rating is maintained and the target increases to $2.90 from $$2.75.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $0.66
If DBI meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.63, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DBI as Add (1) -

Morgans highlights the defensive nature of earnings, after first half earnings (EBITDA) were slightly up despite a -10% throughput decline. Both earnings and funds from operations (FFO) were considered marginally better than expected.

The  broker makes earnings downgrades in the short-term, recognising the company will continue to invoice at existing contracted rates until new pricing is finalised. The target price falls to $2.49 from $2.57. The Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $2.49 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $0.25
If DBI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.63, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EHE as Accumulate (2) -

FY21 results were ahead of Ord Minnett's forecast. With major reforms to the industry still to be clarified, insight into the unfolding year is difficult yet, given a significant lift in funding is promised, the broker is confident current profitability can be maintained.

Ord Minnett believes the worst has passed and Estia Health remains its preferred aged care provider. Accumulate retained. Target rises to $2.70 from $2.20.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: $0.39
If EHE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting downside of -3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FDV as Add (1) -

After first half results, Morgans assesses positive momentum with the majority of businesses now seeing a sustained rebound out of covid-induced lows. Meanwhile, July trading shows improving momentum with pro forma revenue up 9% on June. 

The broker maintains its Add rating and inches up its target price to $1.68 from $1.65. The analyst estimates the company will require around $15m of funding (assumed debt) within the 2023 year and thinks there are numerous avenues to plug this gap.

Target price is $1.68 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.15
If FDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FLT as Hold (3) -

At first glance, Ord Minnett notes Flight Centre's FY21 result was very weak. While in-line at the reported level, the underlying net loss of -$507m was a significant miss versus Ord Minnett's -$350m estimates.

The broker notes while no guidance was provided the company is targeting a return to profitability during FY22.

The broker also notes very weak cash flow numbers, while balance sheet strength has also weakened considerably.

Hold and target of $15.06.

Target price is $15.06 Current Price is $16.35 Difference: minus $1.29 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.46, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GOZ as Neutral (3) -

Growthpoint Properties' FY21 result was in line with Credit Suisse with funds from operations per share (FFOps) up 0.4%
to 25.7c at the upper end of guidance.

The company is guiding to FFOps of at least 26.3c, being 2.3% growth and dividend per share (DPS) growth of 3% to 20.6c.

Credit Suisse notes with gearing of 27.9%, well below the company's target 45% maximum, management is actively looking at new acquisitions.

With many REITs looking to expand into external funds management, Credit Suisse sees the logic behind why the company is looking at this strategy – however, the broker does not assume any earnings or valuation upside from this potential initiative.

Neutral rating is unchanged and the target is raised to $4.21 from $3.72.

Target price is $4.21 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $0.1
If GOZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOZ as Neutral (3) -

Following the FY21 result, which was in line, Macquarie believes the long WALE and low exposure to small-medium enterprises underpins resilient cash flows.

Upside also exists via the cap rate compression in industrial assets, which continue to transact at cap rates of around 4%. Growthpoint Properties has also indicated it has recommenced assessment of funds management opportunities.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $3.99 from $3.87.

Target price is $3.99 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If GOZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GOZ as Hold (3) -

FY21 results were ahead of Ord Minnett's forecast. Guidance is for FY22 earnings of at least 26.3c per security and a dividend of 20.6c.

The broker notes the balance sheet is in good shape, with gearing at 27.9%, providing $500m in debt capacity to meet the bottom end of the target gearing range.

The portfolio has proven resilient throughout the pandemic, with 99% rent collection. Growthpoint Properties has also flagged a preference for expanding into funds management via mergers and acquisitions. Hold maintained. Target rises to $4.00 from $3.80.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If GOZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates HMC as Neutral (3) -

Home Consortium's FY21 result was in line with Credit Suisse's expectations with funds from operations per share (FFOps) up 5.1% to 13.1c.

In a year of transition towards a capital-light model, direct property and co-investment earnings were up over the previous period, with the company also benefitting from management fees.

The company is guiding to FFOps of at least 18.5c (pre-tax) in FY22, with dividend per share flat at 12.0c.

Credit Suisse has increased FY22-FY23 FFOps estimates by 4.6% and 24.7%, with the broker's revised estimates assuming the growth target for funds under management (FUM) of $10bn is achieved by the end of FY24. 

Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $5.87 from $4.51.

Target price is $5.87 Current Price is $5.96 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If HMC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.17, suggesting downside of -20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HMC as Sell (5) -

FY21 results were slightly below UBS estimates, albeit ahead of guidance. The highlight were the heightened growth ambitions, set at more than $10bn in external assets under management with existing capital by December 2024. UBS notes this figure is currently $2.2bn.

The broker believes the stock deserves a premium valuation to reflect its track record, profitability and scalable asset classes.

Yet, a Sell is maintained, based on what UBS considers are excessively high expectations for growth implied by current pricing. Target is raised to $5.40 from $5.20.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.96 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If HMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.17, suggesting downside of -20.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HSN as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

FY21 results were in line with guidance and forecasts. No earnings guidance was issued for FY22. The revenue performance in FY21 was boosted by the contract with Telefonica.

The exclusive due diligence period for the proposed takeover by BGH Capital has been extended and Ord Minnett considers the prospect of a competing bid now unlikely. Hence, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target is reduced to $6.50 from $7.50.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.31 Difference: $0.19
If HSN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IEL as Outperform (1) -

FY21 results were in line with Macquarie's forecasts. The broker considers the long-term drivers of the business are intact and the company offers exposure to a recovery post the pandemic.

Student placement leads are now exceeding pre-pandemic levels in the northern hemisphere where covid-19 restrictions have been reduced.

Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $32.00 from $32.60.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $28.38 Difference: $3.62
If IEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.11, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IEL as Overweight (1) -

IDP Education's FY21 result missed and outpaced various Morgan Stanley's metrics by 2%-5% margins; and the broker reiterates its Overweight rating and $33 target price.

The broker is betting on a sharp rebound post covid, believing the company represents a high-quality growth story and has been using the lockdown periods to improve its competitive position, most notably in India.

Web traffic rose 45% on 2020 and northern hemisphere qualified leads were at record levels.

Covid risks remain on border re-openings, regulation, lockdowns and adverse changes in pricing mixes should students switch preferences.

International English Language Testing Systems returned to pre-covid levels in the third quarter and the broker notes the company's widening International English Language technology moat. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $28.38 Difference: $4.62
If IEL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.11, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IEL as Add (1) -

Morgans looks past the in-line FY21 result, as it suffered from covid across all divisions. IELTS volumes are thought to have moved from recovery to growth, while momentum, pent-up demand and the addition of the BC India volume leads to a big uplift in FY22 forecasts.

Meanwhile, UK/Canada student placement (SP) is seeing strong demand and Australian SP faces a hopeful recovery from 2H22, supporting a FY23 earnings step-up, estimates the broker. The target price rises to $31.25 from $29.10 and the Add rating is unchanged.

The analyst cautions there could be meaningful short-term share price volatility post the impending Education Australia -15% sell-down.

Target price is $31.25 Current Price is $28.38 Difference: $2.87
If IEL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.11, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IEL as Buy (1) -

FY21 results were positive, albeit marginally lower than expected, considering the challenging environment. UBS notes the IELTS business has bounced back strongly and student placement enquiries are back to pre-pandemic levels for the northern hemisphere universities.

The diversification of the company into other geographies has offset the challenging conditions in Australia, although the recent progress in vaccination positions Australian universities to re-open in 2022. UBS retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $32.25 from $31.60.

Target price is $32.25 Current Price is $28.38 Difference: $3.87
If IEL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.11, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFL as Buy (1) -

In an initial glance at FY21 results, Citi estimates core profit is 6% ahead of forecast, seemingly due to a better than expected initial contribution from MLC ($15m versus the $6m forecast). The remainder of the business was thought broadly in-line to slightly softer.

The company declared a fully franked special dividend of 2 cents, in addition to the fully franked final dividend of 9.5 cents. The analyst concedes there are a number of moving parts in the result and it will likely take some time to fully comprehend.

Buy rating and $4.95 target price.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IFL as Buy (1) -

At first glance, IOOF Holdings' FY21 result outpaced Ord Minnett by 7.6%, while the dividend outpaced by 17.9%.

The company posted strong performances across all divisions, with ANZ Pensions and Investments business the main contributor to the beat. Revenue margin compression featured in Portfolio and Estate Administration.

The company raised synergy targets by $68m (worthy of an upgrade says the broker) and, on the downside, it flagged more margin attrition from the Evolve migration.

As usual, price targets and ratings are under review but currently stand at $4.60 and Buy. Risk rating: Higher.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $5.08 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If IFL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ILU as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Iluka Resources' first half underlying earnings were in-line with consensus expectations, although an -8% miss on Citi's forecast. Net profit was -20% below expectations, but the broker notes results were impacted by non-cash inventory moves that were difficult to forecast.

Looking forward, Citi notes the SR1 kiln restart is now committed. Both the Narngulu MSP and SR2 Kiln are at full capacity, and Citi notes production will likely constrain second half sales. 

Citi increases underlying earnings forecast for FY23 by 14%.

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target price increases to $10.00 from $9.10. 

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.91 Difference: $1.09
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.11, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

First half earnings were ahead of estimates. Macquarie notes strong demand has enabled Iluka Resources to formally commit to the re-start of the Sierra Rutile kiln1 and advance the Balranald project.

Demand for zircon and high-grade titanium feedstocks is robust and volume growth plans have been accelerated, while the planned closure of Sierra Rutile has been pushed out. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $11.10 from $10.50.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $8.91 Difference: $2.19
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.11, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Iluka Resources' 2021 first-half result fell -10% short of Morgan Stanley and consensus forecasts. The dividend missed by -13%. Operating cash flow fell -43% shy of the broker but -20% on consensus, partly offset by lower capital expenditure.

The broker reports falling volumes in a strong market as the company's main challenge and risks around the development of Sierra Rutile.

On the upside, management confirmed board approval to recommence operation at SR1 in the fourth quarter. Eneabba Phase 2 volumes outpaced the broker by 15%.

EPS forecasts rise across 2021 to 2023 to incorporate SR1 figures. Target price edges up to $8.35 from $8.20. Equal weight rating retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $8.35 Current Price is $8.91 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.11, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Hold (3) -

First half reported net profit was in-line with Ord Minnett’s estimate though the 12c interim dividend was lighter than the 19c forecast. Australian sites have returned to maximum production following a decrease in inventory.

Management highlighted zircon demand in key segments is at pre-pandemic levels, with customer inventory low and prices set to rise US$70/t in July.

Titanium demand is also strong though Rio Tinto's ((RIO)) Richards Bay Minerals mine may restart sooner than expected and reduce price tension, explains the analyst. The broker increases its price target to $9.10 from $9 and retains its Hold rating.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $8.91 Difference: $0.19
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.11, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPD as Add (1) -

While ImpediMed's FY21 results were behind Morgans' forecast, the broker notes a decrease in net cash burn on the previous year was a positive. 

Full year revenue of $10.8m was a miss on Morgans' expected $12.0m, while earnings loss of -$18.9m was a miss on the forecast -$16.4m. Morgans notes the difference was largely due to higher wages and share-based payments. 

The broker now looks to the publication of the PREVENT data, expected within 60 days, which could be a catalyst for growth if positive. 

The Speculative Buy rating and target price of $0.206 are retained.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.066
If IPD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LAU as Buy (1) -

Lindsay Australia reported FY21 earnings in line with guidance and profit above the broker's forecast. Adjusted cash flow nearly doubled expectation.

Rail was again a key driver behind the result, with a doubling of revenues. Corporate and horticultural customers continue to embrace Lindsay’s rail offering, and the broker sees this sub-segment as generating around 20% of group earnings in FY22.

Target rises to 44c from 42c, Buy retained.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.06
If LAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNK as Buy (1) -

In an initial glance at FY21 results, Citi notes Link Administration's core profit and underlying EPS were in-line, though earnings (EBITDA) were a miss, driven by lower revenues, particularly in corporate markets.

Guidance for operating earnings (EBIT) to be “broadly in line with FY21“ is thought soft compared to the analyst's forecast for 16% growth. This is considered to be due to investment in technology and people to drive growth.

Management announced a buyback of “up to” $150m. Citi maintains its Buy rating and $5.70 target though cautions the buyback may not be enough to support the share price.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.55
If LNK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LNK as Hold (3) -

Upon initial assessment, Link Administration Holdings' first-half result edged out Ord Minnett's forecast.

The main difference stemmed from -$182.8m in impairments related to the Bank & Credit Management (BCM) business (Ord Minnett was expecting -$36.7m).

Leverage was at the lower end of guidance and Corporate Markets staged an earnings miss.

Management guided to low single-digit revenue growth in FY22, and flat earnings prior to a recovery in FY23, due to held back costs, cyber security and IT investments, on top of softer revenue in BCM.

On the balance sheet side, the company announced a $150m share buyback and low gearing. Hold rating and $5.75 target. Risk rating: Higher.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.6
If LNK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Neutral (3) -

Lovisa Holdings' global rollout, which Citi notes is the company's most important growth driver, remains on track. Citi expects rollout to ramp up in FY22, predicting 84 new store adds in the year and expects the US to account for 57% of the rollout in FY22. 

Citi also expects strong sales momentum to continue, with total sales growth of 56% in the first eight weeks of FY22. The broker highlights the Beeline acquisition, as well as the reopening of markets, is likely to drive an increase in short-term top-line growth. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $19.30 from $13.30.

Target price is $19.30 Current Price is $19.30 Difference: $0
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.51, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LOV as Overweight (1) -

Lovisa's FY21 result met Morgan Stanley's forecasts, and FY22 guidance outpaced, the company posting a strong start to FY22.

The broker acknowledges supply disruptions in the first half of FY22 could create a margin headwind but reports Lovisa intends to increase prices on new products.

The company boasts a strong organic store pipeline as landlords in the US and Europe return to the lease negotiating table post pandemic, with strong pent-up demand, and tight cost control.

The broker tinkers with earnings estimates; a forecast 43% compound average growth rate out to 2024 being countered by higher reinvestment.

Price target is now $21.00. Overweight weighting retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $19.30 Difference: $1.7
If LOV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.51, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LOV as Add (1) -

The FY21 result was ahead of Morgans expectations and a large final dividend of 18cps was declared, bringing total dividends for the year to 38cps. The southern hemisphere dominated, with the northern still plagued by extensive lockdowns/restrictions, notes Morgans.

Store rollout momentum continued with 87 acquired Beeline stores and 22 net new stores opened. While 1H22 will remain curtailed by the constrained availability of materials and labour, the analyst thinks the group can still do 60 stores in FY22.

The broker expects a strong recovery in sales/margins over the coming 12 months and lifts its target price to $22.24 from $17.95. The Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $22.24 Current Price is $19.30 Difference: $2.94
If LOV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.51, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MAH as Outperform (1) -

FY21 results were ahead of expectations. FY22 guidance for revenue of $1.4-1.5bn is also better than Macquarie anticipated and MacMahon Holdings continues to benefit from a strong order book.

FY22 capital expenditure guidance is also below expectations, at $270m. EBITDA margins have increased to 18.5%, largely because of an increase in underground work in the portfolio.

The broker retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $0.33 from $0.30.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.09
If MAH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGX as Outperform (1) -

FY21 results were largely in line with expectations. Koolan Island volumes are weaker and costs higher than Macquarie anticipated as advanced stripping continues.

This means cost guidance is lower than expected because of delayed production and shipments. Yet, iron ore prices are driving upside and the broker maintains an Outperform rating. Target is reduced to $0.90 from $1.10.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.2
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MLG as Hold (3) -

MLG Oz's revenue and underlying earnings results for FY21 exceeded Morgans expectations, up 24% and 74% respectively. Earnings before interest and tax were in line with prospectus, and Morgans notes the company delivered strong cash conversion. 

MLG Oz management highlighted an active contract pipeline, including a potential contract win with Roy Hill and new contracts with Northern Star, Norton Gold Fields and Mincor to mobilise in the first half of FY22.

Morgans expects challenging results in the first half of FY22, with recovery taking shape in the second half of the year, as well as strong earnings recovery through FY23.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.01 from $1.08.

Target price is $1.08 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.16
If MLG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

While the FY21 result was in-line with Citi's forecast, the health insurance result was a little better. With the impact of the double premium rate rise in the six months to 1 April 2021 and expense savings, it's thought the strong performance should extend into FY22.

However, the broker feels its positive outlook is already priced-in to the share price and retains its Neutral rating. Management adjusted its cost saving target to -$40m over FY22-24 from -$30m in FY22-23. 

The target price rises to $3.50 from $3.20 largely due to improved margin forecasts for Health Insurance.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MPL as Outperform (1) -

Medibank Private reported FY21 net profit of $441.2m, -5% below Credit Suisse's forecast but in-line with consensus.

The Medibank brand continued to grow volumes with the company delivering 3.5% underlying policyholder growth and is expecting 3% growth in FY22.

With continued momentum in private health insurance (PHI) uptake, favourable claims trends, and good cost control, Credit Suisse expects further earnings growth for the company in FY22 and FY23 and considers health services headwinds as manageable in this context with future optionality.

Outperform rating is unchanged and the target is raised to $3.70 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.15
If MPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

FY21 results were strong across the board, Macquarie observes. Cost reduction targets have increased. Medibank Private expects 3% policyholder growth and around 2.4% in underlying claims inflation, both more optimistic than the broker assesses.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and believes the longer lockdowns continue the more the company will build a buffer to use for customer acquisition in future years. Target is raised to $3.45 from $2.85.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Overweight (1) -

Medibank Private's FY21 result met Morgan Stanley's estimates and outpaced consensus.

The broker reports stronger-than-expected market share gains and policyholder growth outlook and expects a continuing reshaping of the claims curve.

The company plans to return benefits from potential prosthesis reforms to customers through lower premiums.

The broker expects Medibank Private will trade at a  premium to history and notes traction with the company's short-stage joint replacement model.

Target price steady at $3.80. Overweight rating retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $0.25
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MPL as Hold (3) -

Medibank Private's FY21 profit was 1% above consensus forecasts, with a beat in the Health Insurance (HI) business being offset in other areas, notes Morgans. The key positive was considered the much improved HI policyholder growth trends in FY21.

The broker estimates shares are trading at close to fair value and retains its Hold rating. Morgans reduces earnings estimates on a slightly more conservative HI gross profit margin forecast and lowers its target price to $3.28 from $3.34.

The group HI underlying gross profit margin fell to 15.5% from 15.9% in the previous corresponding period. This was due to the overseas HI business segment, which saw revenue and costs pressures linked to covid-19, explains the analyst.

Target price is $3.28 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MPL as Hold (3) -

For Ord Minnett's initial thoughts on the FY21 result, refer to yesterday's Report.

The broker raises its target price to $3.30 from $3.15 after the company showed strong health earnings (revenue, costs and expenses). However, it's thought impossible to be certain regarding underlying trends in the current covid environment. Hold rating is unchanged.

The analyst highlights Medibank Private and the industry are seeing a resurgence in demand for private health insurance (PHI), with participation in the industry rising.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Operating profit beat UBS estimates in FY21. The health insurance result was partially offset by a weaker second half along with higher corporate costs, and the company's strategy to give back savings should mean customer retention remains strong.

Moreover, UBS assesses productivity benefits are constructive for net margins. Given the clean result compared with peers, UBS now believes the 22.8x PE is justified and prefers Medibank Private heading into the premium round.

Neutral maintained. Target rises to $3.50 from $3.25.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MYD as Add (1) -

It is Morgans' view that MyDeal.com.au achieved positive growth on almost every measure of activity in FY21, highlighting a more than doubling of gross sales to total $218.1m and an active customer increase of 83%. 

The broker also noted that increased operating expenses drove a -$4m earnings loss, in line with Morgans' expectations, and which the company is well-placed to absorb given the current $42.7m cash position. 

Morgans view is that results imply an online marketplace gaining real traction, and increased investment in marketing, closer customer engagement and product range is essential to drive further growth. Morgans sees a lot of opportunity for the company to increase its advantage into FY22 

The Add rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.90 from $1.10.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.16
If MYD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAN as Sell (5) -

For Citi's initial response to FY21 results, see yesterday's Report.

The broker now lifts its target price to $5 from $4.30 and retains its Sell rating. It's thought too optimistic by the market to be implying little execution risk in the current share price for the new products to be launched in 2023. 

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $7.00 Difference: minus $2 (current price is over target).
If NAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.42, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NEC as Outperform (1) -

The Nine Entertainment FY21 results were ahead of Credit Suisse estimates, with better performance in TV and at 9Now more than offsetting lower earnings at Stan.

While Credit Suisse updates divisional estimates for upgrades in TV and 9Now, lower earnings in Radio and at Stan, the broker's group estimates are largely unchanged, with an earnings downgrade of less than -0.5% in FY22 and an upgrade of less than 1% in FY23.

The Outperform rating is unchanged. Target $3.40.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.71
If NEC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.31, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEC as Neutral (3) -

FY21 net profit was in line with expectations. Stan subscriber growth was softer than expected and the FY22 EBITDA guidance for Stan is also materially below Macquarie's prior forecasts.

The broker points out the group is facing increasing entertainment costs from investment in Stan Originals and the NDCU contract.

Macquarie notes potential downside risk to publishing earnings driven by industry dynamics, interpreting the company's comments to signal potentially higher costs. Neutral. Target is reduced to $2.80 from $3.00.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.11
If NEC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.31, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NEC as Overweight (1) -

At first glance, Nine Entertainment's FY21 result beat the broker. It is Morgan Stanley's view that, with the exception of radio and publishing, all divisions reported "respectable" growth. 

No FY22 guidance was provided but the company forecasts a 20% rise in FY22 first-quarter advertising revenue and expects Stan earnings to fall to low double digits following the loss of Stan Sports. 

Overweight rating and $3.75 target price retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $1.06
If NEC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.31, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEC as Buy (1) -

For Ord Minnett's initial response to the FY21 results, see yesterday's Report.

The broker adjusts forecasts to incorporate guidance and increases the FY22 net profit forecast by 1.2%. Ord Minnett retains its $3.50 target price and Buy rating. There's thought to be further upside as investments into Stan Sport and Entertainment are appreciated.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.81
If NEC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.31, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEC as Buy (1) -

At first glance, there was a small miss to UBS estimates at the EBITDA line in the FY21 results. TV revenue grew 10% while publishing revenue fell -3%. Domain revenue was up 11% and Stan up 29%.

Early trading in the first quarter signals solid growth across the businesses and appears to be ahead of estimates in absolute terms, UBS observes. The broker currently forecasts flat revenue in FY22.

Buy rating and $3.10 target unchanged.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.41
If NEC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.31, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NSR as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie found the FY21 results solid, noting FY22 guidance is upgraded, to 10% growth in earnings, despite headwinds from the pandemic. The company has indicated tenant demand remains strong.

Nevertheless, the broker awaits additional evidence of underlying growth before becoming more positive and retains an Underperform rating. Coverage is also transferred to another analyst. Target is raised to $2.10 from $1.94.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If NSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NSR as Hold (3) -

After an in-line-with-guidance FY21 result, Morgans assesses earnings were underpinned by strong occupancy and rates, driven by demand for self-storage, as well as strong acquisition and development activity. The REIT is also thought to be benefitting from scale. 

FY22 guidance is for EPS growth of at least 10% versus the previous corresponding period. Acquisition and development activity will likely remain elevated and the analyst points to around $900m in balance sheet capacity, following the recent capital raising.

Morgans retains its Hold rating and lifts its target price to $2.13 from $2.04.

Target price is $2.13 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If NSR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NSR as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

FY21 earnings were slightly below Ord Minnett's forecast. FY22 guidance is for at least 10% growth in underlying earnings per share.

Ord Minnett likes the consolidation (National Storage completed 25 acquisitions in FY21) and significant improvement in operating metrics and believes storage remains undervalued in Australia.

Following a strong run up the share price, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target is raised to $2.30 from $2.20.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.01
If NSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Buy (1) -

Citi leaves its Buy rating and $11.50 target price unchanged after FY21 results, despite an underlying profit miss of -7%. A new dividend policy is expected to offer higher returns at 20-30% of cash earnings. A franked final dividend of 9.5cps was declared. 

FY21 revenue was 40% higher year-on-year, driven by higher gold volumes and steady Australian gold prices, explains the broker.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $9.72 Difference: $1.78
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.11, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Including a myriad of merger-related adjustments as expected, Northern Star Resources' FY21 results were generally in-line with consensus on an underlying basis, with $1,159m earnings -4% below consensus, and net profit -7% below.

Post financial year-end, the company repaid a $400m bank debt and refinanced its debt facilities, with the remaining $262m now due in FY24, reminds Credit Suisse.

Credit Suisse views the company as adequately capitalised to fund its growth aspirations from cash, cash generation, and undrawn facilities.

The dividend policy is now 20-30% of annual cash earnings which, in the broker's view, was the other key news to come out of the result.

Credit Suisse has increases the earnings multiple to 7.0x (from 6.5x) which the broker believes better reflects the company's 7.3x historical average and the broker's expectation for less extended gold prices.

Outperform rating is unchanged and the target is lowered to $12.15 from $12.55.

Target price is $12.15 Current Price is $9.72 Difference: $2.43
If NST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.11, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

FY21 results were broadly in line. The main point of interest for Macquarie was the updated dividend policy. The full-year pay-out was $0.19 and ahead of estimates.

The new policy will pay out 20-30% of cash earnings, meaning a modest improvement on the broker's outlook. A near tripling of the per-ounce post-merger depreciation rate has also been flagged. Outperformed retained. Target is steady at $13.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $9.72 Difference: $3.28
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.11, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

Northern Star Resources FY21 result outpaced Morgan Stanley's estimates (but in line with consensus), triggering a rise in the target  price to $10.80 from $10.60.

The broker increases FY22 EPS but lowers FY23-24 EPS to reflect higher depreciation arising from the Saracen merger.

The 19c dividend outpaced the broker's 17c forecast as the company applied its new dividend policy of 20% to 30% of cash earnings.

Free cash flow outpaced the broker by $271m but fell -$100m short of consensus.

Equal-weight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $9.72 Difference: $1.08
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.11, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Buy (1) -

For Ord Minnett's initial response to the FY21 results, see yesterday's Report.

The broker retains its Buy rating and $11 target price and remains attracted to the company’s strong growth path to 2Moz and
excellent free cash flow generation.

Northern Star Resources offers the strongest growth outlook in Ord Minnett's gold coverage, with plenty of optionality remaining at the Super Pit.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.72 Difference: $1.28
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.11, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ONT as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

1300 Smiles has received a takeover offer from Abano Healthcare. Under the offer non-founding shareholders will receive $8.00 per share and founder shares will be offered $6.33. 

The offer is currently subject to Foreign Investment Review Board approval, which Morgans expects to be likely, as well as a number of clauses, including that founders retain 26.2% of their shares. 

Morgans considers the offer to be fairly valued and has upgraded the target price accordingly. 

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Add and the target price increases to $8.00 from $7.82. 

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.00 Difference: $0
If ONT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORE as Outperform (1) -

FY21 results were weaker than Macquarie expected. The net loss was affected by one-off tax adjustments. Macquarie believes there is upside risk to first half guidance for lithium carbonate pricing of US$9000/t and realised spodumene prices for Mount Cattlin.

Incorporating cost trends from the results and increases in the tax rate in Argentina drive reductions to the broker's FY22-24 forecasts. Longer term the impact is less significant. The company also plans to change its name to Allkem Ltd at the AGM in October.

Outperformed maintained. Target rises to $10.80 from $8.60.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $9.52 Difference: $1.28
If ORE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.82, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORE as Buy (1) -

FY21 operating earnings (EBITDA) of US$18m were well ahead of Ord Minnett's US$6m forecast, with deferred tax charges clouding the reported loss figure of -US$60m.

Lower battery grade carbonate production and ramp-up, and higher Argentine tax rates sees the broker's earnings forecast fall and its target price lowered to $10.20 from $10.90.

Management believes growth plans can be executed without undue stress on the balance sheet, with debt the likely funding option.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $9.52 Difference: $0.68
If ORE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.82, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates OSH as Add (1) -

An in-line first half result keeps Morgans' focus on the merger with Santos ((STO)) and the progress of growth projects in PNG. Amendments to the Oil & Gas Act in PNG increases the broker's confidence in political risk, with the government more investment friendly.

Once the merger agreement is signed, the analyst expects the two sides to coordinate efforts to sell down and finance the project in Alaska. Management maintained FY21 production guidance, while unit production costs are on track for full year guidance of US$10.50-$11.50/boe. 

Morgans maintains its Add rating and lowers its target price to $4.55 from $4.60.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $0.76
If OSH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PTM as Underperform (5) -

FY21 net profit was slightly below Macquarie's estimates because of elevated costs. The broker notes the relative performance in both the international and Asian funds has turned negative again and this will put pressure on flows.

Added pressure at the cost line is also likely to weigh on earnings and limit the re-rating potential. Underperform maintained. Target is reduced to $3.85 from $4.10.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PTM as Underweight (5) -

At first glance, Platinum Asset Management's result proved a 2% beat on the broker and a 1% beat on consensus, thanks to a lower tax rate rather than fundamentals. The dividend missed the broker by -4% and consensus by -6%.

The broker appreciates the company's product launches but sees little to change the investment thesis, expecting outflows to continue in the near term.

Strong investment performances were struck in Japan, the EU, Brands and Health Care funds. Only the Health Care and Technology funds recorded inflows.

 Underweight rating. Target is $3.55. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $4.36 Difference: minus $0.81 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PXA as Outperform (1) -

FY21 results were slightly ahead of prospectus and FY22 profit forecasts have been reaffirmed. With uncertainty around the impact of lockdowns, Macquarie suggests volumes will need to be monitored in coming months.

The broker's Outperform rating rests on successful expansion in the UK, retention of elevated market share and potential NSW stamp duty reforms. Target rises to $20.40 from $20.15.

Target price is $20.40 Current Price is $17.01 Difference: $3.39
If PXA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QAN as Buy (1) -

At first glance, Ord Minnett notes Qantas Airways reported a FY21 underlying loss before tax of -$1.83bn, in-line with the broker's -$1.8bn forecast, with a bigger reduction in net debt than anticipated.

Credit Suisse notes Qantas Domestic performed better than the broker had forecast while loyalty earnings disappointed, coming in -20% below the previous period and -8% below the broker's estimate.

The broker expects first-half FY22 to remain very challenging but notes Qantas is anticipating a significant recovery from December once vaccinations hit 80% and expects net debt to get back within its target range by end of FY22.

Ord Minnett retains its Buy rating and $5.70 target price.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: $0.83
If QAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.75, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REH as Sell (5) -

For Citi's initial response to FY21 results, see yesterday's Report.

While no explicit rollout guidance was provided, the analyst assumes 20 stores in the US per year, which underpins the broker's 6% and 7% profit upgrades for FY22 and FY23. The broker now lifts its target price to $18 from $13.50.

Citi estimates multiples are elevated relative to US-exposed building materials peers and retains its Sell rating.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $22.30 Difference: minus $4.3 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.02, suggesting downside of -17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REH as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie was pleased with the results in Australasia although notes the US outcome was soft. FY21 results, overall, marginally beat expectations. There was no quantified guidance.

The broker believes the decision to invest organically in the US is a positive longer-term development.

Still, the stock appears expensive and Macquarie retains an Underperform rating. The main risk is whether growth materially accelerates, which the broker finds hard to envisage in an already buoyant market. Target is reduced to $18.80 from $19.40.

Target price is $18.80 Current Price is $22.30 Difference: minus $3.5 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.02, suggesting downside of -17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates REH as Reduce (5) -

The FY21 result was above Morgans expectations, with A&NZ earnings (EBITDA) a 7% beat with good earnings margin expansion. US earnings were a -6% miss, with group operating cash flow down -38%, due mainly to negative working capital movements and higher tax.

Management indicated that investment will lift in both A&NZ and the US, with a step change in opex in the US. As this investment is expected to deliver longer-term benefits the broker lifts the target price to $14.30 from $13.50.

However, Morgans sees the shares as overpriced, retains its Reduce rating and sees better value elsewhere. While the FY21 US earnings margin was flat at 7.2%, the analyst notes margins were down -60bps in 2H21, due to increased labour and technology costs.

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $22.30 Difference: minus $8 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).