Australian Broker Call

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February 26, 2020

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AWC - ALUMINA Upgrade to Hold from Lighten Ord Minnett
HUB - HUB24 Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
OSH - OIL SEARCH Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
SKI - SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
Upgrade to Hold from Reduce Morgans
WGN - WAGNERS HOLDING Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
AD8  AUDINATE GROUP LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment

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Overnight Price: $6.51

Morgan Stanley rates AD8 as Overweight (1) -

Weak domestic demand in China and the potential impact of coronavirus have led to an FY20 downgrade.

Despite the near-term uncertainty, Morgan Stanley observes growth in operating metrics is robust. Main positives that reinforce the growth story are revenue ex Asia and gross profit growth.

The broker retains an Overweight rating. Target is reduced to $9.20 from $10.30. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $6.51 Difference: $2.69
If AD8 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.20, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 325.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1627.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APT  AFTERPAY LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $36.10

Morgan Stanley rates APT as Overweight (1) -

Ahead of the first half result, Morgan Stanley upgrades FY20 revenue estimates by 5%. The broker believes the stock is an attractive play on the disruption in global payments.

Overweight rating. Target is raised to $45 from $44. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $36.10 Difference: $8.9
If APT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.00, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 277.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 681.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 103.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 317.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 163.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APX  APPEN LIMITED

IT & Support

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Overnight Price: $23.04

Citi rates APX as Buy (1) -

It isn't clear what Citi analysts thought of the FY20 financials, but there is no doubt at all they retain a positive medium term view. This company continues to invest to secure future growth, and Citi analysts are on board with the strategy and the execution so far.

Appen is diversifying and reducing client concentration, point out the analysts. They suggest next to come on board are government bodies with Citi pointing out Figure Eight has security clearance on top of Appen's secure data annotation capabilities.

Increased investments will depress the margins in 2020, acknowledge the analysts, and there is always the risk that no material benefits will become visible immediately, but Citi sees plenty of positives, including balance sheet optionality and upside risk to FY20 guidance. Target price $30.90 (was $31). Buy.

Target price is $30.90 Current Price is $23.04 Difference: $7.86
If APX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.97, suggesting upside of 30.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 66.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.8, implying annual growth of 92.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.70 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.2, implying annual growth of 31.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates APX as Neutral (3) -

2019 results beat Credit Suisse estimates. Underlying operating earnings were up 42%. The company has guided to 2020 EBITDA of $125-130m. The broker observes organic growth in the core business is very strong and profit margins are holding.

Over the longer term, Credit Suisse has concerns about structural issues with regard to increasing competition, while profit margins appear high for what is largely a labour hire business. Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $27 from $26.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $23.04 Difference: $3.96
If APX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.97, suggesting upside of 30.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.91 cents and EPS of 70.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.8, implying annual growth of 92.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.98 cents and EPS of 85.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.2, implying annual growth of 31.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates APX as Buy (1) -

2019 results were in line with recent guidance. On the positive side, UBS notes a material step-up in sales and marketing and a multi-year agreement with one of the company's largest Relevance customers.

As pricing with major customers has been a key risk, UBS believes this is both a material incremental positive and supportive of stronger market positioning. Buy rating is reiterated. Target is raised to $32 from $31.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $23.04 Difference: $8.96
If APX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.97, suggesting upside of 30.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.60 cents and EPS of 66.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.8, implying annual growth of 92.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.0.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.90 cents and EPS of 92.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.2, implying annual growth of 31.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUB  AUB GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $13.87

Credit Suisse rates AUB as Outperform (1) -

First half results beat Credit Suisse estimates. The broker is increasingly comfortable that the business is now on track with a renewed focus on organic growth.

Acquisitions, to be completed in the current half-year, should add around 11% accretion on a full-year basis. Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $15.00 from $12.75.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.87 Difference: $1.13
If AUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.34.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 71.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.54.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AUB as Outperform (1) -

First half results beat Macquarie's estimates. Acquisitions have driven an upgrade to FY20 guidance with growth in earnings per share now forecast at 6-8%.

The company has reported an average increase of 6.2% in commercial lines insurance premiums in Australia.

Macquarie suggests investor confidence has improved and increases estimates for earnings per share by 3%. Target is raised to $14.31 from $14.05. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $14.31 Current Price is $13.87 Difference: $0.44
If AUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 47.50 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.81.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 79.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.45.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AWC  ALUMINA LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina

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Overnight Price: $2.04

Citi rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts comment Alumina Ltd's bottom line performance missed expectations, and by quite the margin too. They also point out that with a weaker AUD, the company's cash costs are potentially a lot lower in 2020, which should assist the bottom line.

Incorporating a weaker AUD into the forward modeling has added some 16% to Citi's estimates for 2020. No changes have occurred to dividend projections, which for the half proved in-line with expectations.

The broker's DCF valuation has increased to $2.70 from $2.56. Neutral rating retained. Target price lifts to $2.30 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: $0.26
If AWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.59 cents and EPS of 12.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.75 cents and EPS of 23.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 30.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

2019 results were largely in line with expectations. Alumina pricing aside, Credit Suisse believes the challenge will be to maintain earnings by hitting more production records, as cost containment is unlikely to have the same benefits as in 2019.

Western Australian expansion appears to be at least another six months away from a decision and the broker believes alumina prices and the outlook for dividends will drive sentiment. Neutral rating and $2.40 target maintained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: $0.36
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.32 cents and EPS of 11.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.28 cents and EPS of 14.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 30.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates AWC as Underperform (5) -

2019 results were weaker than Macquarie expected. Higher capital expenditure in 2020 and probably 2021 is expected to suppress cash generation.

However, incorporating lower caustic soda prices drives 2-6% upgrades to 2020-25 earnings estimates.

The broker concedes the recent spike in the alumina price and the softer Australian dollar have created upside risks to its base case. Underperform maintained. Target is lifted to $1.50 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.73 cents and EPS of 13.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.07 cents and EPS of 11.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 30.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

2019 results were in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. 2020 sustaining capital expenditure is higher than the broker expected but not a cause for concern.

The Willowdale crusher move is expected to be completed by 2021 for total expenditure of -US$135m. The broker retains an Overweight rating and $2.45 target. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: $0.41
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.44 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.16 cents and EPS of 7.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 30.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates AWC as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Lighten. The broker lowers 2020 earnings estimates after accounting for amortisation of the WA gas contract pre-payment.

Ord Minnett no longer envisages significant de-rating catalysts, with the stock trading close to its recent lows amid support from a 4%-plus dividend yield. Target is raised to $2.10 from $2.00.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: $0.06
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 10.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 7.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 30.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates AWC as Sell (5) -

2019 earnings were in line with UBS estimates. The market is expected to improve in 2020 with a surplus, ex China, likely to remain.

The company notes the expected surplus is set to be exported to China and balance the global market.

In the near-term, the alumina price is likely to benefit from Chinese domestic restrictions.

UBS maintains a Sell rating and lowers the target to $1.90 from $2.10.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $2.04 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.25 cents and EPS of 10.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.39 cents and EPS of 18.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 30.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKL  BLACKMORES LIMITED

Health & Nutrition

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Overnight Price: $68.05

Credit Suisse rates BKL as Underperform (5) -

The company has outlined a $50m earnings (EBIT) growth program involving cost reductions and top-line initiatives out to FY23.

Credit Suisse assumes this program is in addition to the recovery from issues that have affected the company over recent months.

While valuing the stock on a conservative approach, the broker assesses this still affords investors the possibility of strong growth.

Underperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $60 from $55.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $68.05 Difference: minus $8.05 (current price is over target).
If BKL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $66.88, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 114.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.2, implying annual growth of -64.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 61.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 170.00 cents and EPS of 224.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 209.1, implying annual growth of 89.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates BKL as Underperform (5) -

First half results were in line with prior guidance. Macquarie notes the company will renew its focus on premium brands, key channels and markets.

While expecting new labelling costs and coronavirus to be temporary, the broker suspects manufacturing challenges and other inefficiencies will require time.

Macquarie finds strategic value in the strength of the brand and the global revenue opportunity. Underperform. Target is $55.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $68.05 Difference: minus $13.05 (current price is over target).
If BKL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $66.88, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 112.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.2, implying annual growth of -64.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 61.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 92.40 cents and EPS of 184.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 209.1, implying annual growth of 89.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates BKL as Equal-weight (3) -

The main news from the company's update, Morgan Stanley notes, is an entry test plan for the Indian market in the first half of FY21, the potential for multiple partnership in China and China becoming the lead market for product development.

Blackmores is also exploring the potential divestment of non-core brands and plans to grow the Australian practitioner and pet supplements business. Equal-weight rating, $66 target and Cautious industry view maintained.

Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $68.05 Difference: minus $2.05 (current price is over target).
If BKL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $66.88, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 109.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 62.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.2, implying annual growth of -64.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 61.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 190.00 cents and EPS of 254.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 209.1, implying annual growth of 89.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates BKL as Hold (3) -

First half underlying net profit was broadly in line with guidance. Hold rating maintained. Target is $72.

Management has highlighted a new "margin obsessed" culture with a focus on improving gross margins, so Ord Minnett suggests investors will need to wait and see if this translates to operating leverage at the bottom line.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $68.05 Difference: $3.95
If BKL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $66.88, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 105.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 64.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.2, implying annual growth of -64.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 61.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 217.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 209.1, implying annual growth of 89.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL  BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $12.48

Macquarie rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

First half results were marginally better than Macquarie expected. The broker notes the uncertainties in the macro context but believes, when these abate, ongoing positive conditions will underpin the stock.

Estimates are revised up by 1% for FY20 and down by -17.3% for FY21. Outperform maintained. Target is reduced to $14.75 from $16.50.

Target price is $14.75 Current Price is $12.48 Difference: $2.27
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.51, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 85.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.3, implying annual growth of -57.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 110.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.3, implying annual growth of 27.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAJ  CAPITOL HEALTH LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $0.29

Credit Suisse rates CAJ as Outperform (1) -

First half results were in line but Credit Suisse finds more positives have flowed. The broker believes the update, which showed improvement across organic growth and cash flow, serves as a first step in justifying a re-rating process that has some way to go.

The broker assesses this is the best result from the company for some time. Outperform rating maintained. Target rises to $0.34 from $0.32.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.05
If CAJ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.98 cents and EPS of 1.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.86.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.19 cents and EPS of 1.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.65.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCL  COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $11.70

Citi rates CCL as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts note the Victorian Government has announced a container deposit scheme (CDS) will be launched in the state in 2023. Assuming Victoria copies other states in structure and refund amount, the analysts calculate the impact for Coca-Cola Amatil will be -0.9% at the EPS level in FY23.

Taking guidance from the experience in NSW, Queensland and Western Australia thus far, Citi analysts state reported revenues are typically boosted by 10% but volumes decline by between -2% and -4%.

In terms of earnings, the estimated impact is -$6m. While the recent FY19 report contained a series of positives, Citi continues to focus on weak underlying price realisation in key markets plus the risk that volume growth might slow. Sell rating retained. Target price $10.60.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $11.70 Difference: minus $1.1 (current price is over target).
If CCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.28, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.2, implying annual growth of 10.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.7, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQR  CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $4.84

Ord Minnett rates CQR as Hold (3) -

First half earnings were slightly ahead of Ord Minnett's forecast. The broker finds the property valuations cycle for the assets in which the company operates is at an interesting stage.

There is increasing evidence of capitalisation rate compression in neighbourhood assets and the largest sub-regional assets are experiencing a modest softening in valuations.

The broker retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $4.60 from $4.50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.84 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If CQR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.55, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of 145.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of 1.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN  CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES

Coal

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Overnight Price: $1.71

Credit Suisse rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

2019 results were a little softer than Credit Suisse expected. While disappointed in the pull-back in the dividend, the broker acknowledges this shows financial prudence.

2020 guidance is also slightly softer than expected but the company is well-positioned in the broker's view to leverage any improvement in market conditions. Outperform rating and $3.50 target maintained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $1.79
If CRN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 105% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 56.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.93 cents and EPS of 22.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.80 cents and EPS of 26.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 39.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates CRN as Add (1) -

Coronado Global Resources reported in line with expectation. A small dividend surprised the broker, but the outlook for dividends from here is modest only. 2020 volume and cost guidance is disappointing, although the Curragh expansion will contribute from 2021.

The stock currently looks cheap but uncertainties over steel market coal demand and pricing suggest short term risk. Add retained, target falls to $2.50 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.79
If CRN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 56.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.04 cents and EPS of 21.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.84 cents and EPS of 30.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 39.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTX  CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $34.02

Credit Suisse rates CTX as Neutral (3) -

2019 results provided no surprises to Credit Suisse. Retail market conditions appear better than previous assumptions. There was no update on the acquisition proposals.

The broker reviews the break-up valuation and reduces the target to $34.74 from $36.25. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $34.74 Current Price is $34.02 Difference: $0.72
If CTX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.45, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 88.88 cents and EPS of 145.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 195.2, implying annual growth of 29.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 119.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 120.99 cents and EPS of 203.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 219.1, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 135.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CTX as Hold (3) -

2019 net profit was ahead of forecasts and in line with guidance ranges. Ord Minnett expects interim CEO Matt Halliday will give greater priority to return on capital.

Further share price moves will require action on a potential acquisition and the broker finds it difficult to envisage how this unfolds. Hold rating and $35 target maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $34.02 Difference: $0.98
If CTX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.45, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 193.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 195.2, implying annual growth of 29.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 119.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 217.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 219.1, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 135.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CTX as No Rating (-1) -

2019 results were in line with expectations. UBS expects 2020 to improve as the company is taking a more disciplined approach with respect to capital investment, pricing and cost reductions.

No new updates were provided with respect to the takeover offers. The broker is currently restricted from making a recommendation.

Current Price is $34.02. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $34.45, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 114.00 cents and EPS of 189.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 195.2, implying annual growth of 29.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 119.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 123.00 cents and EPS of 205.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 219.1, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 135.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DTL  DATA#3 LIMITED

IT & Support

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Overnight Price: $4.19

Morgans rates DTL as Hold (3) -

Morgans was impressed with the H1 result from Data#3 that came in at the top end of the guidance range, with both earnings and dividends rising 41% year on year.

The broker has subsequently increased FY20-21 earnings forecasts and now assumes mid double digit growth over the next few years as the company rides the wave of cloud growth and digital transformation.

Morgans suggests the company's increasingly recurring revenue stream warrants a higher PE multiple assumption which, along with earnings upgrades, leads to a target increase to $4.31 from $3.21. Hold retained.

Target price is $4.31 Current Price is $4.19 Difference: $0.12
If DTL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.19.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.05.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EHE  ESTIA HEALTH LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors

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Overnight Price: $2.06

Macquarie rates EHE as Neutral (3) -

Significant refurbishment has offset the negative aspects of funding, costs and occupancy, in Macquarie's view. Still, conditions remain challenging for residential aged care operators.

The broker reduces estimates for earnings per share by -17.8% in FY20 and by -4% in FY21. The target is reduced to $2.25 from $2.60. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.19
If EHE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.40 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.4, implying annual growth of -34.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.90 cents and EPS of 12.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of 6.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates EHE as Equal-weight (3) -

Earnings in the first half were in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. Average occupancy of 93.7% was also in line.

The company has reaffirmed full year guidance for EBITDA from mature homes in the range of $78-82m. Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is $2.40. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.34
If EHE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.4, implying annual growth of -34.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of 6.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates EHE as Hold (3) -

First half earnings, which were in line with Ord Minnett's estimates, contracted sharply, reflecting the inadequacy of the current funding regime amid occupancy challenges. The broker expects such conditions will continue.

Nevertheless, the broker retains a Hold rating, given the quality of the operations. Target is reduced to $2.15 from $2.35.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.09
If EHE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.4, implying annual growth of -34.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of 6.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates EHE as Neutral (3) -

First half results were broadly in line with UBS estimates. The broker believes the business is executing well on several factors within its control, but finds there is little relief for funding in the near term or the current supply imbalance in beds.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.30 from $2.65.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.24
If EHE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.4, implying annual growth of -34.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of 6.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FXL  FLEXIGROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $1.78

Credit Suisse rates FXL as Outperform (1) -

First half results provided few surprises for Credit Suisse. The broker expects a similar drag on earnings to play out in the second half, leading to only a modestly improved bottom line.

However, there should be some pick up in volume growth and, going into FY21, the broker anticipates there will be momentum from new and re-branded products. Outperform rating and $2 target maintained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $0.22
If FXL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates FXL as Outperform (1) -

First half results were in line with the recent trading update. Transaction volumes are expected to grow 10-15% in FY20.

Macquarie considers the stock attractive as the investment in its transition continues. Target is reduced to $2.05 from $2.09. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $0.27
If FXL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.20 cents and EPS of 19.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates FXL as Add (1) -

FlexiGroup had pre-released its numbers so no headline surprise, but divisional composition was very mixed, the broker notes, and weaker than expected. FY volume guidance is for growth of 10-15%, implying 17-27% required in the second half (year on year).

Turnaround execution is required and the broker sees no firm evidence of an earnings turnaround as yet, but early volume traction suggests the risk/reward balance is favourable at current valuation. Add retained, target falls a cent to $2.25.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $0.47
If FXL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates FXL as Buy (1) -

First half results were in line with prior guidance. While the magnitude of cost investment was more than UBS expected, there were a few positives including volume momentum and a reduction in the impairments ratio.

The broker assesses FlexiGroup is making good progress with its "buy now pay later" strategy. UBS retains a Buy rating and $2.20 target.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $0.42
If FXL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 13.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.20 cents and EPS of 21.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 12.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDG  GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $0.79

Morgans rates GDG as Add (1) -

Generation Development Group's 75% increase in profit slightly beat the broker. A solid result reflects the benefits of strong sales and funds under management growth, the broker suggests, albeit tempered by various cost increases such as regulatory compliance and insurance.

The broker believes management is executing well and the company is in a strong position to deliver compound earnings growth over time. This is not reflected in a 22x forward PE, the broker suggests, which implies under-valuation of the growth profile. Add and 97c target retained.

Target price is $0.97 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.18
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.33.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.35.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GEM  G8 EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare

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Overnight Price: $1.71

Macquarie rates GEM as Neutral (3) -

2019 underlying EBIT was $132.5m with like-for-like occupancy growth of 1.1%. Macquarie finds it difficult to perceive occupancy growth going forward and considers the instability a risk to the equity.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $1.77 from $2.00.

Target price is $1.77 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.06
If GEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of 15.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.90 cents and EPS of 18.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 16.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates GEM as Hold (3) -

G8 Education's result featured a -2.8% drop in earnings year on year. Occupancy grew 1.1% in the period but year to date has been impacted by the bushfires and virus. The company is focused on turning around greenfield centres, optimising the centre network and cost efficiencies, the broker notes.

No guidance was forthcoming and the broker awaits an update at the AGM in May. Hold retained, target falls to $1.89 from $2.07.

Target price is $1.89 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.18
If GEM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of 15.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 18.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 16.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOZ  GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES AUSTRALIA

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $4.26

Credit Suisse rates GOZ as Neutral (3) -

First half results were slightly ahead of estimates. FY20 guidance is reaffirmed. Credit Suisse expects the market will continue to be supportive of the company because of the exposure to office and industrial.

Management is also exploring options to diversify its income streams. Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $4.28 from $4.13.

Target price is $4.28 Current Price is $4.26 Difference: $0.02
If GOZ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of -54.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates GOZ as Neutral (3) -

First half results were ahead of forecasts. While there remain several positive drivers in the second half, Macquarie notes the offsets include downtime and negative rent reversion.

While the company is exploring adjacent revenue streams, it will take time for this to materialise, in the broker's view. Neutral retained. Target is $4.21.

Target price is $4.21 Current Price is $4.26 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If GOZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.20 cents and EPS of 22.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of -54.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.20 cents and EPS of 22.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates GOZ as Hold (3) -

First half results show Growthpoint Properties in a better position versus most of its peers, in Ord Minnett's view.

The NSW police contract at Parramatta has been renewed for a further term of 20 years from 2024, with Growthpoint providing an $44m works package that equates to a 12% incentive, on the broker's estimates.

Funds from operations were below Ord Minnett estimates, which largely reflected non-recurring company tax. The broker retains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $4.20 from $4.30.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.26 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If GOZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of -54.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB  HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $10.84

Citi rates HUB as Buy (1) -

Citi believes Hub24 has made a strong start into H2, noting January is traditionally a quiet month for the platform operator. The analysts now see genuine upside risk to their projections for funds inflows.

Citi agrees with the general view that margins across the sector will remain under pressure, but the analysts also believe strong net inflows will prove a larger benefit. Some adjustments have been made, predominantly accountancy-related items.

Target price $15.15 (was $15.20). Buy rating retained. Commenting on the H1 report, Citi found the revenue margin better-than-expected. Earnings estimates have been slightly lowered on said accountancy changes.

Target price is $15.15 Current Price is $10.84 Difference: $4.31
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of 71.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.30 cents and EPS of 30.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 56.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates HUB as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

First half earnings missed Credit Suisse forecasts because of a deterioration in IT services profitability and higher expenses in the platform division.

Nevertheless, the broker found many positive aspects including strong growth in funds under administration, slower revenue margin contraction and further earnings margin expansion.

Credit Suisse observes valuation support has recently emerged and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $12.80 from $13.00.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $10.84 Difference: $1.96
If HUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of 71.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 56.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates HUB as Underperform (5) -

First half earnings were in line with Macquarie's estimates. Underperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $8.95 from $8.72.

The broker continues to envisage growth in funds under management but the margin compression and costs required on a sustainable basis means it is hard to justify the valuation.

Target price is $8.95 Current Price is $10.84 Difference: minus $1.89 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.90 cents and EPS of 19.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of 71.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 56.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates HUB as Add (1) -

Hub24's 75% increase in profit was in line with expectations. Management's funds under administration target for end-FY21 remains unchanged and is on track. Increased flows year to date are being driven by advisors coming on board, the broker notes.

The near term risk remains that of pressure on rates paid on cash balances if the RBA cuts to below 0.5%, the broker warns. Longer term the broker expects Hub24 to scale successfully and deliver strong earnings growth. Add retained, target falls to $13.15 from $13.35.

Target price is $13.15 Current Price is $10.84 Difference: $2.31
If HUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of 71.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 56.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates HUB as Buy (1) -

First half results were largely in line with expectations. Revenue margin appears predictable and Ord Minnett observes strong operating leverage is materialising.

The broker suggests growth in funds under administration  can now be more reliably translated to profit growth as the company takes advantage of the trend in advisers moving to independent and specialist platforms.

The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $15.46 from $14.63.

Target price is $15.46 Current Price is $10.84 Difference: $4.62
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.90 cents and EPS of 19.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of 71.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.20 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 56.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ICQ  ICAR ASIA LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $0.35

Morgans rates ICQ as Add (1) -

iCar Asia's result was slightly disappointing, held back by Thailand, the broker notes. The company nevertheless continues to build a strong position in new and used car markets in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Margins will remain under pressure in the near term due to continuous investment in technology and business development, but the broker believes iCar is edging close to market dominance and pricing power. The broker retains Add, warning this is a high risk proposition not suitable for the risk intolerant. Target rises to 52c from 37c.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.17
If ICQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 29.17.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 70.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IVC  INVOCARE LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $14.50

Citi rates IVC as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial assessment by Citi analysts, it appears InvoCare's 2019 financial report has beaten market consensus by some 5%. Operating EBITDA was in-line with Citi's forecast, but the overall "beat" has been ascribed to lower financing expense and a lower tax rate.

The 41c in dividend was equally higher than what consensus expected (by some 4% on Citi's assessment). Equally important, the analysts note the company expects the death rate to continue to reverse towards trend in 2020.

For guidance, investors will have to wait until the AGM in May. Citi analysts expect the share price to react positively.

Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $14.50 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If IVC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.70, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 37.50 cents and EPS of 49.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.8, implying annual growth of 31.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.1.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 42.50 cents and EPS of 55.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.1, implying annual growth of 8.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MNF  MNF GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication

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Overnight Price: $4.09

Morgan Stanley rates MNF as Overweight (1) -

First half operating earnings beat Morgan Stanley's estimates. The broker was surprised by the increase in the dividend, which came despite a dilutive capital raising in 2019.

The Singapore customer launch has been pushed out to the first half of FY21. FY20 EBITDA guidance is reiterated at $36-39m. Overweight retained. Target is $6.40.  Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $2.31
If MNF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.73.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.61.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MOZ  MOSAIC BRANDS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $1.35

Morgans rates MOZ as Hold (3) -

Mosaic Brands had already pre-warned of the impact of the bushfires on its critical Christmas trading period, thus yesterday's results did not surprise. But to add insult to injury, a post-fire recovery underway in February is now at risk from the virus, Morgans notes, with stock availability so far modestly impacted as the key time of Mother's Day approaches.

The company has not provided guidance due to the virus and has deferred its dividend. The broker assumes the fire/virus impact will be short-term, but att this stage uncertainty reigns. Hold retained, target falls to $1.53 from $2.04.

Target price is $1.53 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $0.18
If MOZ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.25.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.82.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHF  NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $4.73

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

The company has maintained guidance for FY20 but Morgan Stanley envisages risks to margins in the near term. Structural issues are evident including the margins for insurers and hospitals.

While top-line issues appear to be dissipating, the broker notes claims pressure is not. Claims inflation is well above premium growth and this is putting pressure on margins.

Equal-weight rating maintained. Target is reduced to $5.05 from $5.45. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.73 Difference: $0.32
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.10 cents and EPS of 26.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of -14.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.70 cents and EPS of 29.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of 7.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NTD  NATIONAL TYRE & WHEEL LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $0.37

Morgans rates NTD as Hold (3) -

National Tyre and Wheel's result was 6% better than Morgans had forecast, albeit a -22% drop in earnings in a tough first half. Revenues were in line but margins suffered from heavy discounting in the face of headwinds including higher import prices (lower A$) and lower than expected dealer support.

Those headwinds are only going to intensify in the second half, the broker warns, and it will probably be six months before they ease. The broker has slashed earnings forecasts but notes a strong balance sheet that can weather the near term storm. Hold retained, target falls to 41c from 44c.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.04
If NTD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.20 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.17.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.17.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSH  OIL SEARCH LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $5.85

UPDATED

Citi rates OSH as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts are trying to build the case that P'nyang isn't dead in the water, and investors at the present share price are essentially getting a free option on LNG growth while only paying half of Citi's valuation for the Alaskan asset.

Having said so, the longer negotiations continue, the higher the chance the LNG window closes for the company as its JV partners might focus on projects elsewhere. The latter scenario might force the share price to move sideways, predict the analysts.

Forecasts have been reduced, predominantly after incorporating changes to non-cash items, explain the analysts. Target price falls to $6.24 from $6.68. Neutral. Not a peep about the results report.

Target price is $6.24 Current Price is $5.85 Difference: $0.39
If OSH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.80, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.29 cents and EPS of 43.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.04 cents and EPS of 29.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates OSH as Neutral (3) -

2019 results beat Credit Suisse estimates at the EBITDA line. Alaska has been delayed by a year with the full field start-up pushed back to 2025.

The company has confirmed the broker's suspicions, by backtracking on the PNG expansion announcement, and attention is now back on P'nyang.

The fact Oil Search appeared to make an announcement regarding the focus of its main growth project, which two weeks later turns out to be "hypothetical", means Credit Suisse is more wary about guidance.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $5.93 from $6.00.

Target price is $5.93 Current Price is $5.85 Difference: $0.08
If OSH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.80, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.20 cents and EPS of 33.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.83 cents and EPS of 39.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates OSH as Neutral (3) -

2019 net profit missed Macquarie's estimates while operating earnings (EBITDAX) were in line.

The broker observes the impasse on the P'nyang gas agreement has left the expansion of PNG LNG in limbo and this has hindered the growth outlook.

The main route to growth is currently in Alaska, which is looking positive in the broker's opinion. Target is reduced to $6.40 from $6.80. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.85 Difference: $0.55
If OSH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.80, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.62 cents and EPS of 34.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.88 cents and EPS of 29.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates OSH as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley was encouraged by the 2019 results, particularly regarding comments on expansion. There appears to be life still in the P'nyang development and three-train expansion. Meanwhile, Alaska appears promising.

There is still a risk in a lower oil price environment that farm-down values in PNG might be lower than forecast. However, the broker suggests this is offset by a resource base that appears to be growing.

Overweight rating, In-Line industry view. Target is reduced to $7.80 from $8.00.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $5.85 Difference: $1.95
If OSH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.80, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 30.31 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 30.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates OSH as Hold (3) -

Oil Search's profit fell short of consensus. PNG expansion remains in limbo, the broker notes, although management seems more confident of P'nyang proceeding. Current focus is on the company's Alaskan assets, for which a planned sell-down of a -15% stake is drawing strong interest.

The company is planning a ten-year strategic review, which the broker suspects has been driven by fatigue from a lack of control over its own future. The stock is trading at a discount to valuation, but the broker sees this as justified given PNG uncertainty. Hold retained, target rises to $6.88 from $6.86.

Target price is $6.88 Current Price is $5.85 Difference: $1.03
If OSH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.80, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.04 cents and EPS of 30.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.84 cents and EPS of 31.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates OSH as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

2019 net profit was broadly in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts. Management has suggested that all partners are now aligned on a 3-train project in PNG.

While recognising it is difficult to predict the outcome of discussions, Ord Minnett does not believe the current share price is assigning value to the expansion.

Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target is raised to $7.20 from $6.85.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $5.85 Difference: $1.35
If OSH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.80, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 28.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 23.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates OSH as Buy (1) -

2019 net profit was in line with UBS estimates. Full production from Alaska is delayed six months, with full field development now expected in 2025.

Exploration expenditure is being reduced where the company does not have a clear view on commercialisation.

UBS retains a Buy rating and believes the current price provides an attractive entry point for investors. Target is reduced to $7.15 from $7.25.

Target price is $7.15 Current Price is $5.85 Difference: $1.3
If OSH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.80, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.69 cents and EPS of 17.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.39 cents and EPS of 37.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 1.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS  PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $0.28

Citi rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Pilbara Minerals' H1 report showed a much larger than expected loss of -$24m and Citi analysts point towards lower spodumene pricing as the key explanation. The analysts add persistent weak market condition also prompted a noncash inventory write-down of -$21.2m during the half.

The company's Pilgangoora plant will continue to operate at reduced rate during 2HFY20 unless market conditions improve. Citi highlights the final investment decision (FID) on phased delivery of stage 2 remains dependent on market conditions and customer requirements.

Analysts at Citi expect the spodumene market to remain the weakest link within the lithium supply chain. Long term, they remain optimistic about Pilbara Minerals' prospects, but near term uncertainty rules. Neutral/High Risk rating maintained. Target price 35c (unchanged).

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.07
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.34, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 280.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PTM  PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $4.11

Morgan Stanley rates PTM as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley suspects consensus is underestimating the turnaround that is required to return to growth and inflow. The broker targets around -$1.5bn in outflows in the second half and -$2bn in FY21.

The broker recommends the company tries new product launches to reduce the reliance on improving the investment performance, in order to stabilise flows and earnings.

However, there is no detail on new products for now and the investment performance is soft so the broker retains an Underweight rating. Target is reduced to $3.25 from $3.50. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: minus $0.86 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 26.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.7, implying annual growth of -1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 23.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of -4.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB  QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $3.13

Citi rates QUB as Sell (5) -

Sell rating retained while the price target pulls back to $2.80 from $2.95 following the release of H1 financials which has prompted forecast of lower margins by Citi. Lower margins mean reduced EPS growth but Citi's projections have gone up by 4%-5% on new contract wins.

Lower margins continue to dominate Citi's assessment. Pinning down a valuation for Moorebank is still a tricky exercise, according to the analysts. They believe Mr Market is way too optimistic on this matter.

Citi believes growth going foward will be lower than the pace from the past. The analysts also caution investors should not assume asset sales or funding partner capital will be distributed to shareholders.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If QUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of -38.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 21.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates QUB as Underperform (5) -

First half results were slightly ahead of forecasts. The company has won some large contracts including a long-term logistics service for Shell and a rail/logistics contract with BlueScope Steel ((BSL)).

Credit Suisse estimates the earnings (EBIT) contribution from the BlueScope Steel contract is more than $10m.

The broker retains an Underperform rating and $2.80 target.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If QUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.70 cents and EPS of 7.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of -38.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.70 cents and EPS of 7.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 21.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates QUB as Equal-weight (3) -

Qube Holdings' H2 half outlook is weaker than Morgan Stanley expected, owing to trade flows. The prospect of a sharp recovery and the company's ability to deliver strategic value provides the investor appeal, in the broker's view.

The company has highlighted new logistics contracts with scale benefits. Target is $3.38. Equal-weight rating. Cautious industry view retained.

Target price is $3.38 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.25
If QUB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of -38.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 21.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates QUB as Hold (3) -

Qube Holdings' first half earnings were solid, the broker suggests, but cash flows were weak. Second half earnings are likely to be below management's previous forecast due to the bushfires, storms and virus. The broker has downgraded forecasts.

An outcome for the Moorebank monetisation process is expected in 2-3 months. Meanwhile, Hold and $3.01 target retained.

Target price is $3.01 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If QUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of -38.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 21.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates QUB as Neutral (3) -

First half earnings (EBITA) were slightly below UBS forecasts. The broker was satisfied with the results considering there is pressure on a number of customer segments.

The broker revises forecasts down by -5-6%, noting the business remains exposed to a number of connections to China that could result in a worse outcome if the situation deteriorates.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $3.15 from $3.25.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.02
If QUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of -38.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.2.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 10.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 21.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDF  STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $3.79

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

First half results were in line with Macquarie's expectations. The broker notes the number of acquisitions in the first half did not come through at the rate of previous periods.

Still, network gross written premium is up 32%, supported by new Steadfast and IBNA brokers joining the network. Target is raised to $4.40 from $4.20.

The broker's Outperform rating is supported by the operating performance and market conditions.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $0.61
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of 16.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of 5.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SEK  SEEK LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services

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Overnight Price: $21.86

Credit Suisse rates SEK as Outperform (1) -

Seek's first half result was slightly below Credit Suisse estimates. Management, while providing more detail on the coronavirus impact, has been unable to update guidance given the uncertainty around duration and severity.

Credit Suisse will keep a watching brief on developments in China to gauge any further impact. Meanwhile, the longer-term domestic dynamics remain intact. Outperform rating maintained. Target rises to $24.90 from $23.80.

Target price is $24.90 Current Price is $21.86 Difference: $3.04
If SEK meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.16, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 33.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 66.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.8, implying annual growth of -28.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 45.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.2, implying annual growth of 36.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates SEK as Neutral (3) -

Seek's first half results were robust, Macquarie assesses. The broker was pleased with the yield performance in Australasia, while growth in China was skewed to adjacencies.

In the near term, the focus is on the impact of coronavirus and management has presented a worst-case possibility that could take -$25m off net profit.

However, Macquarie observes the market has brushed aside this dynamic. Neutral retained. Target is raised to $22.60 from $20.50.

Target price is $22.60 Current Price is $21.86 Difference: $0.74
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.16, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 35.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 61.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.8, implying annual growth of -28.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 58.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.2, implying annual growth of 36.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates SEK as Overweight (1) -

First half results were largely as Morgan Stanley expected. FY20 guidance has been reiterated for all divisions, except China.

Assessing the impact from China is cyclical and short term, the broker believes weakness in the Seek share price is an opportunity to buy.

Overweight rating. Industry view: Attractive. Price target is $22.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $21.86 Difference: $0.14
If SEK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.16, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.8, implying annual growth of -28.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.2, implying annual growth of 36.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates SEK as Reduce (5) -

Seek has suspended formal guidance due to the virus. The company's "growth before earnings" strategy has come back to bite it, the broker notes, given extensive investment costs being met by falling revenues. The company has provided no clarity on Australian pricing, disappointing the market.

The broker assumes a 10% price rise in China and has lifted its target to $21.72 from $19.95, still short of the traded price. Reduce retained.

Target price is $21.72 Current Price is $21.86 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.16, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.8, implying annual growth of -28.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.2, implying annual growth of 36.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SEK as Accumulate (2) -

First half results were solid, Ord Minnett assesses, although FY20 revenue growth estimates are lowered to 10.1% from 16.4%.

Operating earnings (EBITDA) growth is lowered to 3.5% from 8.9% as the potential impact of coronavirus is included.

Despite the short-term impacts, Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating and $25 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $21.86 Difference: $3.14
If SEK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.16, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.8, implying annual growth of -28.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 52.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.2, implying annual growth of 36.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SEK as Neutral (3) -

UBS was not surprised Seek delivered a coronavirus-related downgrade. FY20 net profit guidance could now be -$25m lower, assuming the impact is confined to just Zhaopin and only persists to April.

Balancing out the extra information, UBS retains a Neutral rating. Target is $22.75.

Target price is $22.75 Current Price is $21.86 Difference: $0.89
If SEK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.16, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 66.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.8, implying annual growth of -28.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.4.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.2, implying annual growth of 36.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKI  SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $2.06

Credit Suisse rates SKI as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

2019 results were ahead of forecasts. The growth outlook for TransGrid has firmed, given the government/industry consensus that increased transmission interconnection is required, most notably with the NSW government plan to side-step regulatory approvals.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral, given the discount to valuation and improved relative cash flow outlook. Target is raised to $2.40 from $2.30.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.34
If SKI meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 4.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of 17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 1.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 125.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of -25.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates SKI as Outperform (1) -

2019 results, at the EBITDA line, were ahead of Macquarie's estimates. The dividend has been reduced in 2020 and Macquarie questions whether this is enough for a new base or whether a further reduction is required.

At this stage the broker believes 13.5c should be sustainable, although the Victorian power network process does pose some risk. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $2.37 from $2.35.

Target price is $2.37 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.31
If SKI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 11.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of 17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 9.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of -25.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates SKI as Equal-weight (3) -

2019 results were broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. The distribution guidance for FY20 of at least 13.5c per security is below the broker's estimates.

Morgan Stanley suspects the company is allowing for the anticipated reduction in South Australian power network revenues from July 1 2020, additional network expenditure, particularly in transmission, and a potential increase in its TransGrid stake.

Equal-weight. Target is $2.15. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.09
If SKI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of 17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of -25.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates SKI as Upgrade to Hold from Reduce (3) -

Spark Infrastructure posted a solid result that beat Morgans, albeit cash flows were weaker than expected. Maiden FY20 dividend guidance, of a -1.5c cut to 13.5c, indicates the anticipated decline has begun. The broker expects dividends may bottom out at 11c in FY22 and average 12.3c across FY21-25.

Target rises to $2.05 from $2.00. A combination of target increase and share price sell-off lifts forecast total shareholder return to 5%, hence Morgans upgrades to Hold.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SKI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.55%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of 17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.34%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of -25.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SKI as Hold (3) -

2019 net profit was behind Ord Minnett's forecasts. The final dividend was in line.

The broker believes the current environment should be beneficial to Spark Infrastructure, given its strong dividend yield, although regulatory headwinds have deterred investment in network service providers.

The broker retains a Hold rating and lowers the target to $2.15 from $2.40.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.09
If SKI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 68.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of 17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.5.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 68.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of -25.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SKI as Neutral (3) -

2019 operating earnings (EBITDA) beat UBS estimates. The broker expects further downside from regulatory re-sets beyond the previous disclosure back in August, as 10-year Australian bond yields continue to decline.

UBS increases FY20-22 estimates by 2-5%, adjusting expectations for modest outperformance in operating and capital expenditure. Neutral maintained. Target is $2.05.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SKI meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 68.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of 17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.5.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 103.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of -25.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $11.01

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

The company has now stepped away from its FY20 guidance, after the situation on the ground in China has worsened, while anticipating no impact for FY21. Citi analysts disagree. They have lowered forecasts for FY20 and FY21.

For FY21 EBITS, Citi is now positioned some -9% below market consensus, on its own assessment. The analysts continue to see downside risks for Asian markets and therefore place a question mark behind Treasury Wine Estates' valuation in the share market.

Neutral rating retained. Target price is now $12.30.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: $1.29
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.56, suggesting upside of 23.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 59.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.0, implying annual growth of 1.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 62.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.0, implying annual growth of 13.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates TWE as Hold (3) -

Having slashed guidance last month largely due to a US wine glut, Treasury Wine Estates no longer believes its reduced guidance will be achievable due to the virus, and given the unknown impact has withdrawn guidance altogether.

The broker, similarly, has little conviction in its own downgraded earnings forecasts given the severity and longevity of the virus impact are simply unpredictable. Hold retained, target falls to $11.80 from $14.28.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: $0.79
If TWE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.56, suggesting upside of 23.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.0, implying annual growth of 1.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.0, implying annual growth of 13.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates TWE as Hold (3) -

Treasury Wine no longer expects to achieve its recently downgraded FY20 growth guidance. This stems from the negative impact of the coronavirus outbreak on discretionary consumption in China.

FY21 EBITS growth guidance is unchanged at 10-15%. Ord Minnett suggests the next catalyst should be the outcome of the strategic review, amid cost reductions and the benefits from a smaller commercial business. Hold rating and $13 target maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: $1.99
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.56, suggesting upside of 23.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.0, implying annual growth of 1.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.0, implying annual growth of 13.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

The company has pulled back from FY20 guidance for 5-10% growth in EBITS, citing the impact of coronavirus. UBS reduces estimates for earnings per share by -6-8%.

The broker has a low level of confidence in its estimates, given China makes up more than 20% of group EBITS.

Neutral rating and $18 target are under review.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: $6.99
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.56, suggesting upside of 23.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 38.40 cents and EPS of 57.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.0, implying annual growth of 1.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 44.50 cents and EPS of 66.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.0, implying annual growth of 13.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGN  WAGNERS HOLDING COMPANY LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $1.44

Credit Suisse rates WGN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The company posted a net loss in the first half of -$1.2m and FY20 earnings guidance is reduced -40%.

The change is attributed to major uncertainty over project timing as well as concrete and cement market conditions in south-east Queensland.

Credit Suisse is most concerned about the second half earnings from south-east Queensland, while further commentary regarding Mozambique has pulled back in both likelihood and value.

.Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $1.50 from $2.30.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.06
If WGN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.45, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 83.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.1, implying annual growth of -73.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 68.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.8, implying annual growth of 223.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates WGN as Underperform (5) -

Wagner's first half underlying net profit was lower than Macquarie expected. The broker believes the trading environment is now starting to reflect the complexities of the market structure.

The company is awaiting an outcome of the Boral ((BLD)) dispute. While sales were better than Macquarie expected, margins were crimped because of increased competition in south-east Queensland.

The broker considers the valuation stretched and retains an Underperform rating. Target is $1.25.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If WGN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.45, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 84.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.1, implying annual growth of -73.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 68.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.10 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.8, implying annual growth of 223.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Morgans rates WGN as Hold (3) -

Wagners' result was weaker than expected and guidance has been materially downgraded due to a litany of factors, the broker notes, including suspended cement supply to Boral ((BLD)), lower supply to Nielsen's, start-up losses on new concrete plants, pricing pressure in SE Queensland, higher costs, and no major project work. The broker has taken the knife to FY20-21 forecasts.

With earnings re-based, the broker expects improvement from the second half. Two international LNG contracts are in the pipeline which offer upside if won. Hold retained, target falls to $1.60 from $2.28.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.16
If WGN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.45, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.1, implying annual growth of -73.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 68.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.8, implying annual growth of 223.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOW  WOOLWORTHS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $40.61

Citi rates WOW as No Rating (-1) -

Upon first read, it appears Woolworths' H1 report has marginally surprised to the upside. Big W has returned into profitability, the analysts observe, while the Hotels businesses also put in a strong performance.

Among the negatives is a slowing in supermarket sales. Woolworths' supermarkets are underperforming competitor Coles ((COL)), or so it seems. Cit is restricted from publishing a rating or price target.

Current Price is $40.61. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $37.44

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.9, implying annual growth of -29.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.6, implying annual growth of 8.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 114.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AD8 AUDINATE GROUP $6.51 Morgan Stanley 9.20 10.30 -10.68%
APT AFTERPAY $36.10 Morgan Stanley 45.00 44.00 2.27%
APX APPEN $23.04 Citi 30.90 31.00 -0.32%
Credit Suisse 27.00 26.00 3.85%
UBS 32.00 30.00 6.67%
AUB AUB GROUP $13.87 Credit Suisse 15.00 12.75 17.65%
Macquarie 14.31 14.05 1.85%
AWC ALUMINA $2.04 Citi 2.30 2.10 9.52%
Macquarie 1.50 1.40 7.14%
Ord Minnett 2.10 2.00 5.00%
UBS 1.90 2.10 -9.52%
BKL BLACKMORES $68.05 Credit Suisse 60.00 55.00 9.09%
BSL BLUESCOPE STEEL $12.48 Macquarie 14.75 16.50 -10.61%
CAJ CAPITOL HEALTH $0.29 Credit Suisse 0.34 0.32 6.25%
CCL COCA-COLA AMATIL $11.70 Citi 10.60 9.70 9.28%
CQR CHARTER HALL RETAIL $4.84 Ord Minnett 4.60 4.50 2.22%
CRN CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES $1.71 Morgans 2.50 2.80 -10.71%
CTX CALTEX AUSTRALIA $34.02 Credit Suisse 34.74 36.25 -4.17%
DTL DATA#3 $4.19 Morgans 4.31 3.21 34.27%
EHE ESTIA HEALTH $2.06 Macquarie 2.25 2.60 -13.46%
Ord Minnett 2.15 2.35 -8.51%
UBS 2.30 2.65 -13.21%
FXL FLEXIGROUP $1.78 Macquarie 2.05 2.09 -1.91%
Morgans 2.25 2.26 -0.44%
GEM G8 EDUCATION $1.71 Macquarie 1.77 2.00 -11.50%
Morgans 1.89 2.54 -25.59%
GOZ GROWTHPOINT PROP $4.26 Credit Suisse 4.28 4.13 3.63%
Macquarie 4.21 4.32 -2.55%
Ord Minnett 4.20 4.30 -2.33%
HUB HUB24 $10.84 Citi 15.15 15.20 -0.33%
Credit Suisse 12.80 13.00 -1.54%
Macquarie 8.95 8.72 2.64%
Morgans 13.15 13.35 -1.50%
Ord Minnett 15.46 14.63 5.67%
ICQ ICAR ASIA $0.35 Morgans 0.52 0.37 40.54%
MOZ MOSAIC BRANDS $1.35 Morgans 1.53 2.04 -25.00%
NHF NIB HOLDINGS $4.73 Morgan Stanley 5.05 5.45 -7.34%
NTD NATIONAL TYRE & WHEEL $0.37 Morgans 0.41 0.44 -6.82%
OSH OIL SEARCH $5.85 Citi 6.24 6.68 -6.59%
Credit Suisse 5.93 6.00 -1.17%
Macquarie 6.40 6.80 -5.88%
Morgan Stanley 7.80 8.00 -2.50%
Morgans 6.88 6.86 0.29%
Ord Minnett 7.20 6.85 5.11%
UBS 7.15 7.25 -1.38%
PTM PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT $4.11 Morgan Stanley 3.25 3.50 -7.14%
QUB QUBE HOLDINGS $3.13 Citi 2.80 2.95 -5.08%
UBS 3.15 3.25 -3.08%
SDF STEADFAST GROUP $3.79 Macquarie 4.40 4.20 4.76%
SEK SEEK $21.86 Credit Suisse 24.90 23.80 4.62%
Macquarie 22.60 20.50 10.24%
Morgans 21.72 19.25 12.83%
SKI SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE $2.06 Credit Suisse 2.40 2.30 4.35%
Morgans 2.05 2.00 2.50%
Ord Minnett 2.15 2.40 -10.42%
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES $11.01 Citi 12.30 13.70 -10.22%
Morgans 11.80 14.28 -17.37%
WGN WAGNERS HOLDING $1.44 Credit Suisse 1.50 2.30 -34.78%
Macquarie 1.25 1.30 -3.85%
Morgans 1.60 2.28 -29.82%
Summaries
AD8 AUDINATE GROUP Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $6.51
APT AFTERPAY Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $36.10
APX APPEN Buy - Citi Overnight Price $23.04
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $23.04
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $23.04
AUB AUB GROUP Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $13.87
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $13.87
AWC ALUMINA Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $2.04
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.04
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.04
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.04
Upgrade to Hold from Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.04
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $2.04
BKL BLACKMORES Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $68.05
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $68.05
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $68.05
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $68.05
BSL BLUESCOPE STEEL Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $12.48
CAJ CAPITOL HEALTH Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $0.29
CCL COCA-COLA AMATIL Sell - Citi Overnight Price $11.70
CQR CHARTER HALL RETAIL Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.84
CRN CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.71
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.71
CTX CALTEX AUSTRALIA Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $34.02
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $34.02
No Rating - UBS Overnight Price $34.02
DTL DATA#3 Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $4.19
EHE ESTIA HEALTH Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.06
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.06
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.06
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.06
FXL FLEXIGROUP Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.78
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.78
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.78
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $1.78
GDG GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.79
GEM G8 EDUCATION Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.71
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.71
GOZ GROWTHPOINT PROP Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.26
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.26
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.26
HUB HUB24 Buy - Citi Overnight Price $10.84
Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $10.84
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $10.84
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $10.84
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $10.84
ICQ ICAR ASIA Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.35
IVC INVOCARE Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $14.50
MNF MNF GROUP Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.09
MOZ MOSAIC BRANDS Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.35
NHF NIB HOLDINGS Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.73
NTD NATIONAL TYRE & WHEEL Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $0.37
OSH OIL SEARCH Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $5.85
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.85
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.85
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.85
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $5.85
Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.85
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.85
PLS PILBARA MINERALS Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $0.28
PTM PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.11
QUB QUBE HOLDINGS Sell - Citi Overnight Price $3.13
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.13
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.13
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.13
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $3.13
SDF STEADFAST GROUP Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.79
SEK SEEK Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $21.86
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $21.86
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $21.86
Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $21.86
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $21.86
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $21.86
SKI SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.06
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.06
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.06
Upgrade to Hold from Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $2.06
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.06
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.06
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $11.01
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $11.01
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $11.01
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $11.01
WGN WAGNERS HOLDING Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.44
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.44
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.44
WOW WOOLWORTHS No Rating - Citi Overnight Price $40.61
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

29

2. Accumulate

2

3. Hold

43

5. Sell

11

Wednesday 26 February 2020

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.