Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Apr 27, 2023

This story features AMP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMP

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AMP   ANZ   AQZ   AX1   BOQ   CBA   CMM   COE   CPU   CWY   EVN   EVS   GEM (2)   GNX (2)   GOZ   IGO   ILU   IRE   KAR   LPI   MAP   MND   NAB   NAN   NWH   NXS   PXA   SLA   STO   VML   WBC   WDS  

AMP    AMP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.14

Jarden rates ((AMP)) as Neutral (3) –

Following AMP's assets under management (AUM) and flow update for the 1Q, Jarden suggests detail on additional cost-out opportunities (flagged at the AGM) is increasingly vital to driving a higher valuation.

As Bank earnings are roughly double those from Australian Wealth Management (AWM), slower loan growth in the 1Q weighs on the broker's FY23 group EPS outlook.

The AUM metric for the AWM business was in line with the analyst's expectations, with slightly stronger market returns offsetting marginally higher net outflows.

The Neutral rating and $1.15 target are unchanged.

This report was published on April 20, 2023.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.01
If AMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.22, suggesting upside of 6.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 8.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 26.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANZ    ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $24.21

Jarden rates ((ANZ)) as Overweight (2) –

Despite recent market concerns around the Banking sector over peak margins and a weaker outlook, Jarden sees solid capital positions and attractive relative valuations.

In the run up to 1H results for ANZ Bank on May 5, the broker sees risks from margins (given stronger credit growth) and higher provisions. The bank's coverage levels are at the low end of the peer range and given rising New Zealand risks, a provision rebuild is considered likely.

The analyst suggests Markets income may be a positive swing factor given recent market volatility.

The Overweight rating and $24.80 target are unchanged.

This report was published on April 20, 2023.

Target price is $24.80 Current Price is $24.21 Difference: $0.59
If ANZ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.95, suggesting upside of 11.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 158.00 cents and EPS of 236.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.5, implying annual growth of -4.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 158.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 162.00 cents and EPS of 240.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.7, implying annual growth of 0.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQZ    ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $3.12

Wilsons rates ((AQZ)) as Market Weight (3) –

The responses from both Alliance Aviation Services and Qantas Airways ((QAN)) indicate they are not taking the ACCC decision to oppose the acquisition of Alliance by Qantas as final, suggests Wilsons.

Should the decision prove final, the broker notes investors will have to revisit several issues including the funding and deployment of the recently announced acquisition of a further 30 E190 aircraft.

Leadership at Alliance will also likely come back into focus due to the prior departure of CEO, Lee Schofield, suggests the analyst.

The Market Weight rating and $3.85 target are unchanged.

This report was published on April 21, 2023.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.12 Difference: $0.73
If AQZ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.93.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.20 cents and EPS of 30.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.23.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AX1    ACCENT GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $2.55

Jarden rates ((AX1)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Jarden is beginning to see signs of moderating trade, rising costs (wages) and increased promotional intensity in the fashion category and lowers its rating for Accent Group to Neutral from Overweight following recent share price outperformance.

Buy-rated Universal Store ((UNI)) is the broker's preferred exposure from among its coverage of the sector on a relative valuation and sustainable growth view. 

By comparison to Universal Store, the analysts believe Accent Group carries more risk from an inventory cycle perspective, as well as from its lease book and balance sheet.

The $2.50 target price is unchanged.

This report was published on April 20, 2023.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.55 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If AX1 meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting downside of -7.1%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of 165.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.6, implying annual growth of -5.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOQ    BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $5.94

Jarden rates ((BOQ)) as Overweight (2) –

Bank of Queensland's pre-released first half results were not as bad as Jarden had feared. It's thought investor concerns may be eased by the bank's strong capital position and the lack of regulatory investigation/penalties.

Despite near-term earnings pressure, the broker sees value for the patient investor due to a sustainable and attractive dividend yield and medium-term cost-out potential.

The target falls to $7.20 from $7.60 on lower EPS forecasts due to higher core costs and greater net interest margin (NIM) compression. Overweight.

This report was published on April 17, 2023.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $5.94 Difference: $1.26
If BOQ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.54, suggesting upside of 10.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 68.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.6, implying annual growth of -13.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 65.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.2, implying annual growth of 1.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA    COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks – Overnight Price: $99.89

Jarden rates ((CBA)) as Underweight (4) –

Despite recent market concerns around the Banking sector over peak margins and a weaker outlook, Jarden sees solid capital positions and attractive relative valuations.

Third quarter disclosure will be limited for CommBank on May 9, suggests the broker. 

The analyst notes market expectations are for a flattish 2H net interest margin (NIM) and the likelihood for a slower NIM decline given recent easing in front book competition.

The Neutral rating and $98 target price are unchanged.

This report was published on April 20, 2023.

Target price is $98.00 Current Price is $99.89 Difference: minus $1.89 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $89.69, suggesting downside of -10.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 442.00 cents and EPS of 584.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 600.6, implying annual growth of -4.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 438.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 435.00 cents and EPS of 565.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 594.5, implying annual growth of -1.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 452.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $4.51

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CMM)) as Buy (1) –

Capricorn Metals has a pre-feasibility study for the Mount Gibson gold project which outlines a production profile of 138,000ozpa at a cost of $15-29/oz over 10-year mine life.

Canaccord welcomes the study, which exceeds expectations. The broker anticipates capital expenditure will be comfortably funded by cash flow from Karlawinda. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $5.65 from $5.50.

This report was published on April 21, 2023.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $4.51 Difference: $1.14
If CMM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.79.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.55.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.17

Jarden rates ((COE)) as Overweight (2) –

Following a review of stocks under coverage in the Energy sector, Jarden makes no material changes to forecasts for Cooper Energy and retains its 24c price target

The Overweight rating is maintained and the broker expects improving average production rates will lead to increased market confidence that higher output levels can be sustained.

This report was published on April 17, 2023.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.075
If COE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting upside of 31.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 55.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 55.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.1, implying annual growth of 120.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU    COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $22.60

Jarden rates ((CPU)) as Overweight (2) –

While the transactional revenue backdrop remained mixed over the March quarter (given elevated equity market volatility weighed on global corporate actions), Jarden slightly adjusts its FY24 forecast for Computershare higher.

The analyst holds a slightly higher cash rate outlook as Silicon Valley Bank contagion risks have receded, and forecasts around 15% EPS growth into FY24.

Moreover, the broker expects Computershare will have acquisitive firepower of more than $2bn by December or buyback capacity of
$300m per annum.

The target rises to $25.40 from $25.00. Overweight.

This report was published on April 17, 2023.

Target price is $25.40 Current Price is $22.60 Difference: $2.8
If CPU meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.25, suggesting upside of 20.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 104.71 cents and EPS of 155.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 164.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 130.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 122.06 cents and EPS of 180.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 196.4, implying annual growth of 19.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 147.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWY    CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $2.50

Jarden rates ((CWY)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden feels Cleanaway Waste Management's earnings (EBITDA) margins can recover given higher fleet costs, as well as higher Collections & Disposals costs, are passed through to customers.

These costs combined have contributed over half the cost-of-doing-business (CODB) growth over the period [2H of FY22 and 1H of FY23], explains the analyst.

Following the announcement of the Victorian container deposit scheme – due to commence this November – Jarden upgrades its core EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 by 2% and 3%, respectively, and lifts its target to $2.80 from $2.70. Overweight retained.

This report was published on April 17, 2023.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: $0.3
If CWY meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 11.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.40 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of 75.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.90 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 27.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.56

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EVN)) as Buy (1) –

Evolution Mining's March-quarter production was largely in line with expectations. There was no change to FY23 guidance and Canaccord Genuity forecasts gold production of 169,000 ounces in the June quarter with growth driven by Red Lake.

Production at Red Lake has been downgraded for FY24 by around -15%, to 160-180,000 ounces, largely because of lower average mined grade.

The broker also expects gross debt will peak at $1.8bn, or around 50% of gearing, in the June quarter before the balance sheet will deleverage quickly as major growth capital expenditure rolls off and cash flow increases from production.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.95 from $4.00.

This report was published on April 21, 2023.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $0.39
If EVN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting downside of -9.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of -20.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of 85.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVS    ENVIROSUITE LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.09

Moelis rates ((EVS)) as Buy (1) –

EnviroSuite's March-quarter results appear to have missed Moelis' forecasts due mainly to Aviation churn; but management retained guidance and the broker observes the June-quarter pipeline is solid.

The broker considers the risk of further Aviation churn to be minimal and observes Industrial boosted annual recurring revenue in the quarter by 24%.

Moelis maintains the demand for ESG software is likely to rise, as the market moves from a "nice to have to must have" position as regulation kicks in.

Buy rating retained. Target price slips to 17c from 19c.

This report was published on April 20, 2023.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.079
If EVS meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.20.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 91.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GEM    G8 EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare – Overnight Price: $1.23

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GEM)) as Buy (1) –

The first quarter trading update was slightly below expectations although Canaccord Genuity notes the outlook is improving. The first quarter is typically a soft period, given a gradual ramp up in occupancy throughout the year.

G8 Education is reviewing underperforming centres which could also improve key operating metrics. The broker is forecasting EBIT growth of 25% in 2023 and a further 17% in 2024.

With this in mind, the stock is expected to trade at least at a market multiple and a Buy rating is maintained with a target of $1.42, lowered from $1.44.

This report was published on April 21, 2023.

Target price is $1.42 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.195
If GEM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.31.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.61.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Moelis rates ((GEM)) as Hold (3) –

G8 Education's Annual General Meeting and trading update appears to fallen shy of Moelis' forecasts, as occupancy disappointed due to labour constraints.

On the bright side, the earnings (EBIT) line met the broker's forecasts, suggesting costs were contained. 

Moelis observes the company is now focusing on attracting and retaining staff and data suggests this is starting to yield results.

Meanwhile, the broker says the operating environment is favouring G8 Education, with higher government subsidies set to kick in from July,   covid "baby boom" children are about to enter childcare, unemployment remains low, immigration is back on the rise, while supply remains tightish.

Hold rating and $1.27 target price retained.

This report was published on April 21, 2023.

Target price is $1.27 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.045
If GEM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.33.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 9.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.17.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNX    GENEX POWER LIMITED

EV, Solar & Batteries – Overnight Price: $0.16

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GNX)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Genex Power was able to realise an average of $108/megawatt-hour during the March quarter and generate $6m in revenue, despite only achieving a 28% capacity factor at its solar farms.

Canaccord Genuity considers volatile pricing during the winter will be a material upside risk for the company, with Liddell set to shut and the AEMO expecting a gas shortfall.

Meanwhile, the Bulli battery and solar development is starting to gather pace. The company has already engaged in offtake negotiations and this is not included in valuation, with any positive progress yielding a material catalyst, in the broker's view.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.24 from $0.25.

This report was published on April 21, 2023.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.08
If GNX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 80.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 80.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Petra Capital rates ((GNX)) as Buy (1) –

Genex Power's March-quarter result proved mixed, observes Petra Capital, wet weather constraining Kidston Solar but Jemalong Solar managing to meet expectations.

Construction on the Bouldercombe Battery and Kidston Pumped Hydro projects are on schedule, and the Bulli Creek Clean Energy Project and the 258MW Kidston Wind Project are also continuing apace, and the broker expects a final investment decision for Kidston later this year.

Petra Capital believes the company's share price has suffered due to the construction risk surrounding the pumped hydro project, but perceives this an opportunity for entry.

Buy recommendation and 22c target price retained.

This report was published on April 21, 2023.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.06
If GNX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 160.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.70 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOZ    GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES AUSTRALIA

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $3.23

Moelis rates ((GOZ)) as Buy (1) –

Growthpoint Properties Australia's March-quarter trading update revealed gearing rose 30 basis points to 37.5% as the company's buyback continued.

Moelis observes the buyback is 70% complete but suspects the company's sharp share-price discount to net tangible assets suggest the market is penalising the company for its high gearing, and that the balance of the buyback could be left hanging.

But the broker spies limited downside at these levels given management has reaffirmed FY23 guidance and that the balance sheet is conservatively structured.

Buy rating retained. Target price eases to $3.93 from $4.02.

This report was published on April 19, 2023.

Target price is $3.93 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.7
If GOZ meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.40 cents and EPS of 26.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.23.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.42.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $13.40

Jarden rates ((IGO)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

Jarden lowers its target for IGO to $17.17 from $17.45 as a result of lowering its short-to medium-term nickel price forecasts.

The broker feels the market is underestimating the value of the company's nickel business and the positive risk/reward proposition offered by the company's interest in Greenbushes (lithium), and upgrades its rating to Buy from Overweight.

The analysts gain extra comfort from the recent announcement a site was secured for the process plant at the lithium hydroxide facility at Kwinana, as well as the Mincor Resources ((MCR)) takeover by Wyloo Metals.

This report was published on April 20, 2023.

Target price is $17.17 Current Price is $13.40 Difference: $3.77
If IGO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.93, suggesting upside of 18.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 197.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.8, implying annual growth of 215.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 212.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.2, implying annual growth of 0.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU    ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $10.99

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ILU)) as Hold (3) –

Mineral sands production in the March quarter missed Canaccord Genuity's expectations. Pricing remained robust over the quarter.

For the first time since 2018, Iluka Resources provided pricing for its synthetic rutile product at US$1265/t, given this segment is now a larger contributor to earnings after the de-merger of Sierra Rutile.

While there is significant long-term value in the asset base, the broker continues to envisage downside risks to cash flow from a potential blow-out in capital expenditure at Eneabba.

The Hold rating and $11 target are unchanged.

This report was published on April 21, 2023.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.99 Difference: $0.01
If ILU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.36, suggesting upside of 3.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 131.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.7, implying annual growth of -31.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of -28.00 cents and EPS of 130.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is – 2.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.0, implying annual growth of -4.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IRE    IRESS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $10.01

Wilsons rates ((IRE)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons was pleased by both the reiteration of FY23 guidance at the Iress investor day and a renewed focus on core markets.

The broker awaits early evidence of success beyond price increases and potential changes to legislation before becoming more constructive, and maintains its Market Weight rating.

Management will split the organisational structure into “Core” and “Manage” business units, with the aim of efficiency rationalisation and/or divestment of historically struggling segments.

The “Core” business will include APAC Financial Advice, Global Trading & Market Data (APAC, EU, Americas) and Superannuation.

The analyst's medium-term forecasts are amended for higher near-term cost-out than previously expected, offset by a lower UK Wealth growth assumption in the medium-term. The target slips to $9.26 from $9.52.

This report was published on April 21, 2023.

Target price is $9.26 Current Price is $10.01 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If IRE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.10, suggesting upside of 0.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of -89.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 345.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 37.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.6, implying annual growth of 1403.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR    KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $2.14

Jarden rates ((KAR)) as Overweight (2) –

Following a review of stocks under coverage in the Energy sector, Jarden raises its target for Karoon Energy to $2.50 from $2.45 due primarily to the impact of a lower Australian dollar estimate.

The broker notes the company's shares remain one of the few ways for investors to gain oil exposure outside the ASX100.

The Overweight rating is unchanged.

This report was published on April 17, 2023.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $0.36
If KAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting upside of 39.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 31.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.50 cents and EPS of 49.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.3, implying annual growth of 12.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LPI    LITHIUM POWER INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.32

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LPI)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes media reports that suggest the Chilean government will release its national lithium policy soon, expected to clarify the role of government and private enterprise in the development of the country's lithium resources.

Overall, the broker believes the policy could be positive for Chile and the industry as a whole, noting the potential for increased foreign investment and the opening up of new production.

The broker continues to highlight Lithium Power International's Maricunga project as one of the most advanced and high-quality undeveloped lithium brine project is held by a junior.

Speculative Buy rating reiterated. Target is reduced to $1.30 from $1.45.

This report was published on April 20, 2023.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.985
If LPI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 313% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAP    MICROBA LIFE SCIENCES LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.28

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MAP)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Microba Life Sciences delivered no major surprises with its March quarter results. The company has curated a group of international partners which Canaccord Genuity believes will increase its geographic reach without substantial input costs.

Nevertheless, this means that the company will have less control over sales "enthusiasm and messaging". The broker looks ahead towards improvements in diagnostic sales and the potential early success of the MetaXplore launch in Australia.

The Speculative Buy rating is retained. Target is steady at $0.44.

This report was published on April 20, 2023.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.16
If MAP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND    MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $12.23

Jarden rates ((MND)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

Visa turnaround times and slower wage growth have recently diminished, observes Jarden, providing a positive catalyst for the mining services industry. It's felt labour pressures may ease over the next 6-12 months through to the 1H of 2024.

The analysts believe mining engineers remain the job category most crucial for the industry to attract to Australia.

The broker maintains its $11.20 target price and Neutral rating for Monadelphous Group.

This report was published on April 20, 2023.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $12.23 Difference: minus $1.03 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.23, suggesting upside of 8.1%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of 1.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.9, implying annual growth of 17.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB    NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $28.84

Jarden rates ((NAB)) as Buy (1) –

Despite recent market concerns around the Banking sector over peak margins and a weaker outlook, Jarden sees solid capital positions and attractive relative valuations.

National Australia Bank is the broker’s top pick from among the big four due to better margin/volume management. 

The analyst forecasts a first half cash profit of $4.21bn (up 16% half-on-half) on May 4, driven by solid net interest margin (NIM) expansion of around 16bps and sound markets income.

The Buy rating and $31.60 target are unchanged.

This report was published on April 20, 2023.

Target price is $31.60 Current Price is $28.84 Difference: $2.76
If NAB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.88, suggesting upside of 0.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 169.00 cents and EPS of 244.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 247.1, implying annual growth of 15.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 171.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 169.00 cents and EPS of 234.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.8, implying annual growth of -4.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 172.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAN    NANOSONICS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $5.51

Wilsons rates ((NAN)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons $1.90 valuation for the CORIS business (Trophon $4.10) is based upon conservative assumptions for market access, penetration and pricing for when CORIS is launched by the end of 2023.

The broker feels there is potentially 20-50% upside to this $1.90 valuation following new analysis of the market. CORIS is expected to have a ‘head-start’ owing to existing key relationships with infection preventionists and instant compliance with current standards.

The analyst's industry feedback suggests CORIS will remove manual labour, increase efficacy and allow for cleaning verification.

Despite this new outlook, the broker leaves its $6.00 target and Overweight rating unchanged.

This report was published on April 21, 2023.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.51 Difference: $0.49
If NAN meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.44, suggesting downside of -19.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 103.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.6, implying annual growth of 271.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 119.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 112.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.8, implying annual growth of 47.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 81.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWH    NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.42

Jarden rates ((NWH)) as Overweight (2) –

Visa turnaround times and slower wage growth have recently diminished, observes Jarden, providing a positive catalyst for the mining services industry. It's felt labour pressures may ease over the next 6-12 months through to the 1H of 2024.

The analysts believe mining engineers remain the job category most crucial for the industry to attract to Australia.

The broker maintains its Overweight rating and $2.85 target for NRW Holdings.

This report was published on April 20, 2023.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.43
If NWH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 15.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.80 cents and EPS of 25.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of 7.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.20 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 8.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXS    NEXT SCIENCE LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.72

Wilsons rates ((NXS)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Next Science's 1Q revenue of US$4.4m missed Wilsons forecast by around -US$0.3m, most likely reflecting lower Xperience sales to partners Zimmer and TELA.

After another small order by Zimmer, the broker feels the company is not embracing the product as enthusiastically as first hoped, leading to further forecast cuts.

More positively, the company's 'pivot' into woundcare with its durable medical equipment (DME) business made a positive start in terms of prescriber growth, and core direct sales of proprietary products also increased by 50%, observes the analyst.

The target falls to 70c from 75c and the Market Weight rating is unchanged.

This report was published on April 24, 2023.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If NXS meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.64.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.40.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PXA    PEXA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $13.39

Jarden rates ((PXA)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden forecasts total market volumes will contract by -10% on the previous corresponding period in 2H of FY23, and Pexa Group volumes will fall by -6%. It's felt weak transfer activity will persist while refinancing will recover given significant mortgage expiries.

NSW and QLD settlement activity fell by -6% on the previous corresponding period in March, improving from February (-12%), with transfers still particularly weak (-21%), observes the analyst, whilst refinancing activity rose by 4%.

The Underweight rating and $12.60 target are unchanged.

This report was published on April 17, 2023.

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $13.39 Difference: minus $0.79 (current price is over target).
If PXA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.15, suggesting upside of 20.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.7, implying annual growth of 116.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 34.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.0, implying annual growth of 27.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLA    SILK LASER AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $3.02

Wilsons rates ((SLA)) as No Rating (-1) –

Wesfarmers ((WES)) subsidiary API has bid $3.15/share to acquire Silk Laser Australia and the board has indicated its unanimous support in the absence of a superior proposal and subject to an independent review.

The broker points out the proposed transaction multiple sits just below the median, small-mid cap healthcare services multiple.

For compliance reasons, Wilsons has withdrawn its Overweight rating and prior $3.15 target price.

This report was published on April 24, 2023.

Current Price is $3.02. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.73.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.91.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO    SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $7.13

Jarden rates ((STO)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden lowers its target price for Santos to $7.75 from $7.85 as the broker adjusts its risk weighting for its Barossa valuation after factoring in hurdles to progress on environmental grounds.

The effect of the change in risk weighting is partly offset by higher spot LNG prices and a lower Australian dollar forecast.

The Overweight rating is unchanged.

This report was published on April 17, 2023.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $7.13 Difference: $0.62
If STO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.32, suggesting upside of 30.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 37.35 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.35 cents and EPS of 55.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.1, implying annual growth of -14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VML    VITAL METALS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $0.01

Petra Capital rates ((VML)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Vital Metals has delayed construction at its Saskatoon rare earths facility advising current prices do not support the investment.

Add this to news that both CEO and CFO roles are vacant at the company and Petra Capital downgrades its rating to Hold from Buy and cuts its target price to 2c from 5c to reflect increased execution risk (the plant is due for completion in July).

The broker estimates the company holds cash of about $15m to $20m.

This report was published on April 21, 2023.

Target price is $0.02 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.008
If VML meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC    WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks – Overnight Price: $22.31

Jarden rates ((WBC)) as Underweight (4) –

Despite recent market concerns around the Banking sector over peak margins and a weaker outlook, Jarden sees solid capital positions and attractive relative valuations.

The broker expects Westpac will announce first half cash profit of $3.84bn (up 24% year-on-year) on May 8, driven mainly by core net interest margin (NIM) expansion of around 13bps and lower remediation/core costs.

The Underweight rating and $22.80 target are unchanged.

This report was published on April 20, 2023.

Target price is $22.80 Current Price is $22.31 Difference: $0.49
If WBC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.03, suggesting upside of 12.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 139.00 cents and EPS of 203.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.7, implying annual growth of 30.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 141.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 203.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.1, implying annual growth of -0.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 148.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS    WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $33.92

Jarden rates ((WDS)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

On April 17, prior to the release of Woodside Energy's 1Q production report on 21 April, Jarden lifted its rating to Neutral from Underweight. 

The broker would have been even more positive on Woodside Energy but continued to see material downside risk to consensus.

A lower Australian dollar forecast more than offset lower LNG price estimates and the target was raised to $33.85 from $33.60.

Following the 1Q production report, the broker increased its target further to $34.40 after better-than-expected revenues (due to a strong LNG performance) beat the consensus forecast.

Management left FY23 production guidance unchanged.

Jarden notes growth projects are all on track and maintains its Neutral rating.

This report was published on April 24, 2023.

Target price is $34.40 Current Price is $33.92 Difference: $0.48
If WDS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $36.18, suggesting upside of 6.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 172.06 cents and EPS of 216.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 271.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 192.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 194.12 cents and EPS of 244.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 274.0, implying annual growth of 0.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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