Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 29, 2023

This story features ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALL

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AKE   ALL (2)   BKW   BRG   CAR   EHE   EVN   IPD   KMD   LYC   NCK   NSR (2)   OFX   PMV   RBL   RWC   SEK   SGR   SM1   SMR   TIE   WES  

AKE    ALLKEM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $11.53

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AKE)) as Buy (1) –

Allkem has upgraded its Olaroz resource estimate by 27%, half of which was attributable to the Maria Victoria acquisition, observes Canaccord Genuity.

The broker says the upgrade propels the resource into the ranks of the world's largest lithium deposit and points to a 150-plus mine life.

The broker appreciates Allkem's strong earnings and low debt position, which position it well to fund growth.

Buy rating and $19.80 target price retained.

This report was published on March 29, 2023.

Target price is $19.80 Current Price is $11.53 Difference: $8.27
If AKE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.12, suggesting upside of 37.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 105.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 101.3, implying annual growth of 42.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 152.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 140.1, implying annual growth of 38.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALL    ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $36.63

Goldman Sachs rates ((ALL)) as Buy (1) –

Despite facing some near-term headwinds, specifically supply chain issues and long-term-growth expenditure, Goldman Sachs continues to find Aristocrat Leisure strategically the most diversified stock in its gaming coverage.

While the company has reported ongoing strength in its North American operations, Australia has been weak ahead of approaching elections. The region's profit has declined -28% in the first half. 

The Buy rating and target price of $42.80 are retained.

This report was published on March 24, 2023.

Target price is $42.80 Current Price is $36.63 Difference: $6.17
If ALL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $42.73, suggesting upside of 15.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 195.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 186.9, implying annual growth of 30.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 201.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.8, implying annual growth of 6.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((ALL)) as Overweight (2) –

Following an update from Aristocrat Leisure, Jarden has upgraded its full year earnings forecast by 1% on balance of assumed lower sales from Australia and New Zealand but higher sales from North America. 

However, while North American casino revenue has to date remained strong, the broker sees potential that the depletion of household savings over the last year may impact on the amount of money consumers have available to spend over the remainder of the current fiscal year. 

The Overweight rating and target price of $39.04 are retained.

This report was published on March 27, 2023.

Target price is $39.04 Current Price is $36.63 Difference: $2.41
If ALL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $42.73, suggesting upside of 15.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 187.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 186.9, implying annual growth of 30.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 190.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.8, implying annual growth of 6.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKW    BRICKWORKS LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $22.58

Jarden rates ((BKW)) as Neutral (3) –

Brickworks has delivered a first half earnings result of $607m, a significant beat to consensus forecasts thanks to property earnings. Looking ahead, Jarden notes demand for building products is likely to weaken over the coming fiscal year. 

The property trust remains key to growth for the company, says Jarden, noting that current average rent in the trust remains -$35-40 per square metre below market. According to the company, rental reversion, as well as new development, could see annualised rent income lift to $275m from a current $178m in around five years. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $28.50 from $27.40.

This report was published on March 27, 2023.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $22.58 Difference: $5.92
If BKW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.62, suggesting upside of 17.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 329.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 332.8, implying annual growth of -40.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 112.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.2, implying annual growth of -59.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $18.63

Wilsons rates ((BRG)) as Overweight (1) –

With Breville Group's peer group concluding its reporting season, Wilsons highlights sector-wide continued weakness across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and in North America. 

The broker points out outlook statements across the sector suggest an expectation of low to mid single digit volume declines over 2023, while destocking looks set to continue in the first quarter but may be close to complete. 

The Overweight rating and target price of $23.50 are retained.

This report was published on March 28, 2023.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $18.63 Difference: $4.87
If BRG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $23.36, suggesting upside of 25.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 76.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 88.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.7, implying annual growth of 14.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAR    CARSALES.COM LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $21.89

Goldman Sachs rates ((CAR)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs believes headwinds facing car dealers in both Australia and North America are increasing, but finds Carsales to be well placed to navigate challenges and feels the company can continue to deliver continued double digit organic revenue growth. 

While data across the broader Australian industry imply a decline in used car transfers in the early second half, Goldman Sachs points to Carsales' solid visitation as reassurance that the company is continuing to gain share.

The broker does see 2024 as more challenging for price-led yield expansion. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $22.82 are retained.

This report was published on March 24, 2023.

Target price is $22.82 Current Price is $21.89 Difference: $0.93
If CAR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.04, suggesting upside of 14.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 79.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.3, implying annual growth of 33.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.7, implying annual growth of 13.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EHE    ESTIA HEALTH LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $2.54

Jarden rates ((EHE)) as Buy (1) –

Bain Capital has lodged a confidential, non-binding, indicative proposal to buy Estia Health for $3 a share, cash.

Jarden suggests the bid is opportunistic, advising investors consider future value and not covid-depressed current values.

The broker observes the proposal is also very lowball compared with other recent comparable transaction. Jarden observes the bid is -17% below the Japara Healthcare bid in 2021, yet argues Estia Health warrants a premium to that transaction; and that Bolton Clarke's acquisition of Ality was struck on a 62% premium relative to the Estia bid.

The broker also believes investors should wait for the Federal Budget this May.

Buy rating and $3.22 target price retained.

This report was published on March 28, 2023.

Target price is $3.22 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $0.68
If EHE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.70 cents and EPS of 13.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.10.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.60 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.09.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.93

Jarden rates ((EVN)) as Initiation of coverage with Underweight (4) –

Expecting current elevated capital expenditure and risk to production guidance, Jarden expects buyers may be deterred from Evolution Mining. Despite this, the broker remains constructive on gold pricing in the short to medium term, and does not see material risk in the company's balance sheet. 

That said, the broker's forecasts appear below both company and consensus expectations, partly from a conservative production outlook for Red Lake from FY25. The broker does, however, expect free cash flow to return in FY24. 

The broker initiates with an Underweight rating and a target price of $2.79.

This report was published on March 27, 2023.

Target price is $2.79 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting upside of 1.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 18.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of -20.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 22.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 58.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPD    IMPEDIMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.12

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IPD)) as Buy (1) –

In a plus for Impedimed, the National cancer Council Network has named bioimpedance spectroscopy as the only objective measurement for lymphoedema in cancer patients.

The ruling also extends to all forms of cancer (the company's focus was on breast cancer), which broadens the opportunity going forward.

The broker observes the inclusion de-risks its forecasts and that the company has sufficient cash ($26.2m as at December 31) to start accelerating sales.

Buy rating and 14c target price retained.

This report was published on March 29, 2023.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.015
If IPD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD    KMD BRANDS LIMITED

Sports & Recreation – Overnight Price: $0.98

Jarden rates ((KMD)) as Buy (1) –

KMD Brands has reported a first half result in line with guidance, with revenue up 34.5% year-on-year to $547.9m and underlying earnings up 343% year-on-year to $45.3m. Material year-on-year earnings growth, says Jarden, was driven by the cycling of lockdowns and the easing of supply chain pressures. 

The broker highlighted a 100 basis point improvement in group margins which it attributes to strong improvement in the Kathmandu brand, both from foreign exchange gains and a moderation of the brand's high-low pricing model. 

Jarden anticipates elevated inventory to unwind by year's end, and that the company can deliver further operational expenditure improvement. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to NZ$1.30 from NZ$1.35.

This report was published on March 24, 2023.

Current Price is $0.98. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $1.01, suggesting upside of 1.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.47 cents and EPS of 6.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.92 cents and EPS of 8.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.2, implying annual growth of 20.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYC    LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $6.54

Goldman Sachs rates ((LYC)) as Neutral (3) –

The expansion of Lynas Rare Earths' Mt Weld mine to a 1.3m tonne per annum ore throughput is on track, says Goldman Sachs, with commissioning expected in the December half of 2024. 

The broker notes a four to five month full shut down of the Malaysian advanced materials plant also in the December half of 2024 now looks likely, based on product inventory and material flow.

Having previously estimated a shorter three month shut down, Goldman Sachs lowers its production expectations for FY24.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $6.60 from $7.50.

This report was published on March 29, 2023.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $6.54 Difference: $0.06
If LYC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.77, suggesting upside of 19.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 41.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.6, implying annual growth of -33.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 7.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 90.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.5, implying annual growth of 4.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCK    NICK SCALI LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $9.08

Wilsons rates ((NCK)) as Overweight (1) –

Having made some changes to the way it models assumptions for Nick Scali, Wilsons has commented the new methodology will allow more room for management commentary to flow through and allow respective forecasts to be better accounted for. 

The broker's new model will separately forecast written orders, order banks and revenue and deliveries each for Nick Scali, Plush and the company's online operations. As a result, expected net profit declines -1.9% in FY23 but lifts 1.3% in FY24. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $13.30 from $13.50.

This report was published on March 28, 2023.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $9.08 Difference: $4.22
If NCK meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 77.60 cents and EPS of 119.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.60.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 63.60 cents and EPS of 97.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.27.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NSR    NATIONAL STORAGE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.51

Jarden rates ((NSR)) as Buy (1) –

In Jarden's opinion, National Storage REIT is well positioned to deliver above-average earnings per share growth through to FY26. The broker is anticipating the REIT could achieve a 6% compound annual growth rate in this time, underpinned by a growing acquisition and development pipeline. 

The $300-325m equity raise, says Jarden, sees the REIT well set up in a volatile market, leaving $400-800m to deploy for acquisitions or developments. The broker notes its earnings per share forecasts remain well ahead of consensus in FY24 and FY25, but it anticipates consensus will move closer to its forecasts over time. 

The Buy rating and target price of $3.00 are retained.

This report was published on March 24, 2023.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.49
If NSR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting downside of -10.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 11.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of -77.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.70 cents and EPS of 12.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of -2.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((NSR)) as Hold (3) –

National Storage REIT has successfully raised $300m in equity through a placement, with a further $25m share purchase plan in the works for retail unit holders. 

Moelis highlights $81.4m of raised funds will be used to fund committed acquisitions, $124.4m for committed development capital expenditure, $84.0m to repay debt, and $10.3m for transaction costs. 

With the equity largely flagged for paying down variable debt, the broker notes the raise is largely earnings neutral. It highlights National Storage REIT remains one of a few REITs trading at or above net tangible assets. 

The Hold rating and target price of $2.44 are retained.

This report was published on March 24, 2023.

Target price is $2.44 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If NSR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting downside of -10.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 11.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of -77.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of -2.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OFX    OFX GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $1.56

Wilsons rates ((OFX)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Wilsons is anticipating the coming fiscal year will be a difficult one for OFX Group from an earnings growth perspective, with the company's latest result demonstrating softness in its consumer division has dragged on growth. 

While the broker expects the consumer division is yet to reach a trough, and that momentum in the corporate business will be insufficient to fully offset this impact, it sees a balance of headwinds and tailwinds driving to a fairly neutral earnings growth result.  

The rating is downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight and the target price decreases to $1.72 from $3.21.

This report was published on March 24, 2023.

Target price is $1.72 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.16
If OFX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.68.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.28.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV    PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $26.09

Jarden rates ((PMV)) as Overweight (2) –

Premier Investments' FY23 interim earnings (EBIT) outpaced consensus forecasts by 4% but missed Jarden's forecast by -10%.

Trade for the first seven weeks of the June half also outpaced, Jarden surmising the company is growing its share in a shrinking market, but the broker says engagement data point to a moderation in March sales.

Gross margins tumbled, mainly due to unfavourable currency movements, and the broker expects this to improve, along with freight costs, this half.

The company announced a surprise 16c special dividend.

EPS forecasts fall -7% in FY23 as Jarden closes the gap with consensus, and the broker expects macro conditions are likely to weigh thereafter.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight. Target price falls to $23.70 from $25.30.

This report was published on March 28, 2023.

Target price is $23.70 Current Price is $26.09 Difference: minus $2.39 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.92, suggesting upside of 4.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 112.00 cents and EPS of 167.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.6, implying annual growth of -8.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 119.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 89.00 cents and EPS of 135.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.1, implying annual growth of -5.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RBL    REDBUBBLE LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $0.44

Jarden rates ((RBL)) as Neutral (3) –

Redbubble co-founder Marting Hosking has returned to Redbubble as CEO, replacing Michael Ilczynski.

Jarden observes Hosking is the company's largest shareholder, holding 14.4%, and appreciates the level of skin in the game.

Web traffic staged a rally but retreated into the red in the past five weeks – all up a moderating decline observes Jarden.

The broker forecasts a return to positive earnings (EBITDA) by FY26.

Neutral rating and 52c target price retained.

This report was published on March 28, 2023.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.08
If RBL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting upside of 34.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -18.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWC    RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $3.53

Goldman Sachs rates ((RWC)) as Buy (1) –

Reliance Worldwide has announced the launch of two new product ranges, SharkBite Max push-to-connect fittings and PEX-A pipe and fittings, to the American market. 

Goldman Sachs points out the SharkBite Max range has been re-engineered and the company expects upwards of 95% of the existing volume will be transitioned in the next year. Both ranges are expected to be margin accretive and to support above market growth. 

The Buy rating and target price of $4.15 are retained.

This report was published on March 29, 2023.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: $0.62
If RWC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 6.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.12 cents and EPS of 26.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.58 cents and EPS of 27.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.75.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SEK    SEEK LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $23.35

Goldman Sachs rates ((SEK)) as Sell (5) –

With Seek set to host its first investor day since more than a decade in April, Goldman Sachs is anticipating the company will provide an updated revenue target.

The company has previously targeted a doubling of its Australia and New Zealand and Asia revenues between FY21 and FY26, implying FY26 revenue of $1.52bn. 

The broker remains more cautious on Seek compared to its classifieds peers, finding the stock to be the most cyclical of its it classifieds coverage.

Goldman Sachs sees less yield potential for Seek compared to peers, but does expect the company to address through the cycle yield growth targets at the investor day. 

The Sell rating is retained and the target price increases to $22.60 from $22.30.

This report was published on March 29, 2023.

Target price is $22.30 Current Price is $23.35 Difference: minus $1.05 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.38, suggesting upside of 14.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 71.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.3, implying annual growth of 152.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 77.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.1, implying annual growth of -35.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGR    STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $1.48

Jarden rates ((SGR)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden makes no changes to Star Entertainment's forecasts following the Labor win in the NSW elections.

The broker does not rule out a higher tax regime, a move that could reduce FY24 EPS forecasts by up to -86%, says Jarden.

The government may have to compensate the Star Entertainment for discriminatory taxes if it is unable to meet its capital expenditure requirements, and such a move could also have sovereign risk implications, says Jarden.

Overweight rating and $1.69 target price retained.

This report was published on March 28, 2023.

Target price is $1.69 Current Price is $1.48 Difference: $0.215
If SGR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting upside of 21.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.7, implying annual growth of 6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SM1    SYNLAIT MILK LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $2.00

Jarden rates ((SM1)) as Overweight (2) –

Synlait Milk's FY23 interim result proved a sharp disappointment, despite following hot on the heels of a profit warning.

Much of the problems were sheeted back to difficulties in digesting the company's new SAP ERP system, combined with inflation and rising staff numbers ahead of an anticipated rise in demand for Advanced Nutritional.

On the upside, solid ingredients performed well ex-ERP and gross margins improved.

Debt rose sharply (32%) given working capital challenges but management advised the company had met its covenants and was confident it would continue to do so. Jarden expects the company's recovery path has lengthened from two years to three years.

Overweight rating retained. Target price falls to NZ$2.95 from NZ$3.25.

This report was published on March 29, 2023.

Current Price is $2.00. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 29.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.3, implying annual growth of 72.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMR    STANMORE RESOURCES LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $3.51

Petra Capital rates ((SMR)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital favours Buy-rated Stanmore Resources over the the “go to” coking coal producer on the ASX, Coronado Global Resources ((CRN)).

Coronado not only has a far higher percentage of thermal coal sales, but also a -50% lower earnings (EBITDA) margin than Stanmore Resources, explains the analyst.

Coronado's Australian operations are impacted by a sales contract to supply thermal coal at a loss to the Stanwell power station.

In addition, the company pays Stanwell a rebate on revenue received for export metallurgical coal sold from the Stanwell Reserved Area (SRA).

The broker maintains its Buy rating and $5.41 target for Stanmore Resources.

This report was published on March 22, 2023.

Target price is $5.41 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $1.9
If SMR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.25 cents and EPS of 116.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.03 cents and EPS of 80.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.36.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TIE    TIETTO MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.60

Petra Capital rates ((TIE)) as Buy (1) –

As Tietto Minerals' Abujar Gold Project poured first gold in mid-January, Petra Capital considers West Africa’s newest gold mine is ramping up at the perfect time. The US$1,990/oz gold price has risen 7% over the past month.

The broker's 97c target, down from $1.00, is based upon an average gold price of US$1,690/oz over 2023-25.

As mining transitions to higher-grade fresh ore from oxide ore at the project, the analyst forecasts processing rates and production will ramp-up from early April.

The Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on March 21, 2023.

Target price is $0.97 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.365
If TIE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 13.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.58.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 12.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.92.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES    WESFARMERS LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $49.58

Goldman Sachs rates ((WES)) as Sell (5) –

Management of the Chemical, Energy and Fertilisers (CEF) segment at Wesfarmers recently hosted brokers, including Goldman Sachs, at the Kwinana and Mt Holland sites.

Ammonia prices have fallen to around US$650/t from US$1,100/t, and the broker forecasts this will be reflected in the sales price of ammonium nitrate with a three-month lag.

The company sources half of its ammonia requirements from production at Kwinana, with the balance imported, and management plans to expand production volumes by 300ktpa to 570ktpa.

Goldman Sachs doesn't incorporate this proposed expansion into its forecasts. A decision for the project is expected late in 2024 and operational dates vary from late 2027 to early 2028.

Management also noted the potential to improve capacity at Kwinana by 15% over the next five years by debottlenecking three
ammonium nitrate sites.

Sell rating retained, with a price target of $42.70.

This report was published on March 27, 2023.

Target price is $42.70 Current Price is $49.58 Difference: minus $6.88 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $50.54, suggesting upside of 2.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 184.00 cents and EPS of 216.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 221.6, implying annual growth of 6.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 181.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 171.00 cents and EPS of 201.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.6, implying annual growth of 6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 195.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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