Weekly Reports | Jan 20 2023
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By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
The week ahead opens with public holidays in New Zealand (Monday) and China (the whole week), ahead of Australia Day on Thursday.
Local volumes will be ultra-thin on Friday so we might as well call it a three-day week ahead.
On Wednesday, the RBA-critical December quarter CPI data will be released. While most media might get another heart attack from the headline number, economists and the RBA will be zooming in on the trimmed-mean, the non-tradables and price inflation from services.
Just about every economist in the country is anticipating another strong uplift in the numbers. ANZ Bank economists, for example, expect trimmed mean inflation to have risen to 6.7% year-on-year, which would beat the RBA forecast for 6.5%.
No surprise, ANZ Bank expects another 25bp hike in February, casually dismissing recent apparent weakness in labour market data as no more than "noise".
"With 444k job vacancies recorded in November (around double the pre-pandemic level) and businesses still in hiring mode, it’s hard to see a sharp rise in unemployment any time soon."
On ANZ Bank's projections the RBA cash rate will peak out at 3.85% later this year, implying two more 25bp hikes post February.
NAB's business conditions survey on Tuesday might be another focal point. What are the chances the survey does not point to further decline?
Tuesday sees the world releasing PMI data, followed by CPI releases on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, in the US the release of quarterly results continues while locally the floodgates open wider for energy producers and miners to update on quarterly production. On Friday, when nobody is around, ResMed will unofficially start the local reporting season with a quarterly update as per US listings rules.
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