Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jan 18, 2023

This story features LIFE360 INC, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 360

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

360 (2)   ADH   AKE   BC8   CXL   CXO   DRE   DRO   DSK   IGO   JHG   KMD   LOV   LTR   PLS   QAN   SDR   SUL (3)  

360    LIFE360 INC

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $5.50

Bell Potter rates ((360)) as Buy (1) –

Life360's trading update roughly met guidance.

Bell Potter cuts revenue forecasts to the lower end of the guidance range and slightly ups its adjusted 2022 EBITDA loss but now estimates positive operating cash flow in 2023 (2023 EPS forecasts also turn positive).

Buy rating and $9 target price retained.

This report was published on January 16, 2023.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $3.5
If 360 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 45.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.11.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 127.17.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Goldman Sachs rates ((360)) as Buy (1) –

Life360 has confirmed it will meet 2022 guidance, just scraping in.

Goldman Sachs notes the company expects to be break even by the June quarter – one quarter ahead of schedule – and that subscriber and churn patterns have normalised.

Combined, the broker believes investors can relax, and expects front-book conversion to improve throughout the year.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $7.90 from $7.60 in December.

This report was published on January 17, 2023.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $2.4
If 360 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 31.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.34.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 54.50.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ADH    ADAIRS LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $2.88

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ADH)) as Hold (3) –

Despite positive commentary coming from discretionary retail, Canaccord Genuity expects the sector to face increasingly challenging conditions throughout the remainder of the fiscal year, with potential for downgrades. The broker does note possibility for ongoing strong consumer spending in pockets, tailwinds from employment and migration trends, and strong management to offset.

Adairs demonstrated strong sales growth early in the financial year, but Canaccord Genuity notes store closure cycling makes a clear read through impossible. Feeling Adairs carries excess inventory and continues to suffer the cost efficiency issues that impacted on its FY22, the broker remains neutral on the stock. 

The Hold rating and target price of $2.30 are retained.

This report was published on January 13, 2023.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If ADH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting downside of -6.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 28.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of 11.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 34.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AKE    ALLKEM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $12.29

Goldman Sachs rates ((AKE)) as Buy (1) –

The Australian lithium sector has had a positive start to the new year, outperforming China and US peers with a 15% recovery following declines in late 2022. While Goldman Sachs expects pricing to reflect a tight market throughout the first half, it anticipates a second half decline.

The broker retains a preference for Allkem, noting the company has the largest resource and one of the best production outlooks within its coverage. Goldman Sachs expects product optimisation and cost reductions to be a driver of the company's outlook. 

The Buy rating and target price of $15.20 are retained.

This report was published on January 13, 2023.

Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $12.29 Difference: $2.91
If AKE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.87, suggesting upside of 37.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 98.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.4, implying annual growth of 67.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.9, implying annual growth of 16.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BC8    BLACK CAT SYNDICATE LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.38

Shaw and Partners rates ((BC8)) as Buy (1) –

Black Cat Syndicate has released a resource upgrade from its Coyote gold operation, with the resource increasing 32% to 3.7m tonnes with 645,000 ounces of contained gold. Shaw and Partners notes the update also included an underground resource at Coyote Central of 757,000 tonnes with 356,000 tonnes of contained gold, making it one of the highest grade deposits nationally. 

The broker notes Black Cat Syndicate has a clear pathway to production of 150,000 ounces of gold per annum across its three WA gold development projects. Catalysts for the stock, according to Shaw and Partners, include first production from Kal East and production from Coyote.

The Buy rating and target price of $0.77 are retained.

This report was published on January 17, 2023.

Target price is $0.77 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.39
If BC8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 103% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.56.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.26.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXL    CALIX LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $5.29

Bell Potter rates ((CXL)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter transfers coverage of Calix to a new analyst and cuts the company's target price to $9 from $9.21.

Speculative Buy rating retained.

This report was published on January 11, 2023.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $5.29 Difference: $3.71
If CXL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 65.31.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 67.82.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXO    CORE LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $1.02

Goldman Sachs rates ((CXO)) as Sell (5) –

The Australian lithium sector has had a positive start to the new year, outperforming China and US peers with a 15% recovery following declines in late 2022. While Goldman Sachs expects pricing to reflect a tight market throughout the first half, it anticipates a second half decline.

The broker notes Core Lithium looks expensive compared to peers, as well as having the lowest operating free cash flow per tonne of lithium carbonate equivalent. Goldman Sachs finds the exploration and resource upside required to support the capacity extension already priced into the stock to be significant.

The Sell rating is retained with a $0.95 target price. 

This report was published on January 13, 2023.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.45.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.54.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRE    DREADNOUGHT RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.10

Bell Potter rates ((DRE)) as Buy (1) –

Dreadnought Resources' Maiden Resource Estimate at Yin fell -2% shy of Bell Potter's estimate, but this was partly offset by small rises in grades.

The broker says Yin remains largely untested and the company plans to begin drilling along the 30km strike at Yin, and at Sabre starting February or March.

Speculative Buy rating given strong demand for rare earths. Target price falls to 19c from 20c after the broker updates its capital structure and comparative data.

This report was published on January 3, 2023.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.093
If DRE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.39.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.62.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRO    DRONESHIELD LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.27

Bell Potter rates ((DRO)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter increases DroneShield's target price to 34c from 32c to reflect stronger confidence in the company's pipeline after the company secured an $11m contract for counter-drone equipment (following hot on the heels of an $11m contract in December, which followed two weeks after a $10m contract).

Buy rating retained.

This report was published on January 9, 2023.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.055
If DRO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 29.44.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DSK    DUSK GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $2.03

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DSK)) as Buy (1) –

Despite positive commentary coming from discretionary retail, Canaccord Genuity expects the sector to face increasingly challenging conditions throughout the remainder of the fiscal year, with potential for downgrades. The broker does note possibility for ongoing strong consumer spending in pockets, tailwinds from employment and migration trends, and strong management to offset.

Given the importance of November and December trading, Canaccord Genuity expects Dusk Group's next market update to be pivotal  in shaping the company's full year earnings. According to Dusk Group, customers responded well to new ranges and seasonal offerings, with sales up 24% year-on-year in the first 19 weeks. 

The Buy rating and target price of $2.50 are retained.

This report was published on January 13, 2023.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: $0.47
If DSK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.67.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 24.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.42.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $14.62

Goldman Sachs rates ((IGO)) as Neutral (3) –

The Australian lithium sector has had a positive start to the new year, outperforming China and US peers with a 15% recovery following declines in late 2022. While Goldman Sachs expects pricing to reflect a tight market throughout the first half, it anticipates a second half decline.

The broker expects production growth at Greenbushes to be key to IGO's outlook, with planned additions set to lift production to 2.4m tonnes per annum from a current 1.5m tonnes per annum by 2027, with Goldman Sachs expecting a long-term production range of 1.8-2.0m tonnes per annum.

The Neutral rating is retained with a target price of $14.10.

This report was published on January 13, 2023.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $14.62 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $15.44, suggesting upside of 5.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 202.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.6, implying annual growth of 370.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 160.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.1, implying annual growth of -1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 101.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHG    JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $37.91

Bell Potter rates ((JHG)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter cut Janus Henderson's target price to $43.81 from $45.37 to reflect exchange-rate fluctuations heading into the February 2 full-year results.

After marking to market and incorporating outflows, EPS forecasts rise 0.6% in FY22; 5.5% for FY23; and 5.6% for FY24.

The broker reports one of the new CEO's key messages at a November-quarter presentation was to cut operating costs. Cash generation is good, but the broker stresses the company remains at the whim of customer flows.

This report was published on January 16, 2023.

Target price is $43.81 Current Price is $37.91 Difference: $5.9
If JHG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.45, suggesting downside of -19.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 291.67 cents and EPS of 415.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 338.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 224.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 266.72 cents and EPS of 389.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 285.2, implying annual growth of -15.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 226.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD    KMD BRANDS LIMITED

Sports & Recreation – Overnight Price: $0.98

Canaccord Genuity rates ((KMD)) as Hold (3) –

Despite positive commentary coming from discretionary retail, Canaccord Genuity expects the sector to face increasingly challenging conditions throughout the remainder of the fiscal year, with potential for downgrades. The broker does note possibility for ongoing strong consumer spending in pockets, tailwinds from employment and migration trends, and strong management to offset.

While KMD Brands did issue some cautionary remarks alongside its last market update, the broker notes this preceded the key retail trading periods. The broker considers the retailer's ability to recover lost earnings to be key to its full year outlook.

The Hold rating and target price of $1.03 are retained.

This report was published on January 17, 2023.

Target price is $1.03 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.05
If KMD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.93 cents and EPS of 7.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.58.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.76 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.54.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV    LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $25.82

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LOV)) as Buy (1) –

Despite positive commentary coming from discretionary retail, Canaccord Genuity expects the sector to face increasingly challenging conditions throughout the remainder of the fiscal year, with potential for downgrades. The broker does note possibility for ongoing strong consumer spending in pockets, tailwinds from employment and migration trends, and strong management to offset.

Canaccord Genuity expects Lovisa Holdings can continue to trade at a premium. In its first 19 weeks of the year, the company reported 16% comparable sales growth year-on-year and 60% total sales growth. As of November, the retailer was trading in an additional five markets with 100 more stores than the previous year, and its rollout continues. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $27.75 from $21.60.

This report was published on January 13, 2023.

Target price is $27.75 Current Price is $25.82 Difference: $1.93
If LOV meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.14, suggesting upside of 1.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.2, implying annual growth of 32.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 86.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.4, implying annual growth of 22.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR    LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $1.50

Goldman Sachs rates ((LTR)) as No Rating (-1) –

The Australian lithium sector has had a positive start to the new year, outperforming China and US peers with a 15% recovery following declines in late 2022. While Goldman Sachs expects pricing to reflect a tight market throughout the first half, it anticipates a second half decline.

Goldman Sachs expects the appointment of mining contractors to be a key near-term catalyst for Liontown Resources' stock price. It expects the company's flagship Kathleen Valley asset, currently pre-construction, will have a competitive scale once ramped to 500,000 tonnes per annum, and that the company returns to net cash by FY26.

The Neutral rating is retained with a target price of $1.65 per share.

This report was published on January 13, 2023.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.155
If LTR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 249.17.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 83.06.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS    PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $4.07

Goldman Sachs rates ((PLS)) as Neutral (3) –

The Australian lithium sector has had a positive start to the new year, outperforming China and US peers with a 15% recovery following declines in late 2022. While Goldman Sachs expects pricing to reflect a tight market throughout the first half, it anticipates a second half decline.

Goldman Sachs expects near-term prices to support a strong 10-20% free cash flow yield for Pilbara Minerals, above capital expenditure costs. The broker finds the company as funded for growth opportunities and capital management, considering initiation of dividends a future driver. 

The Neutral rating is retained with a target price of $4.60.

This report was published on January 13, 2023.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $0.53
If PLS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting upside of 13.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 80.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.8, implying annual growth of 304.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 55.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.5, implying annual growth of -5.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAN    QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $6.54

Goldman Sachs rates ((QAN)) as Buy (1) –

OAG data show domestic capacity in the December half was 92% of pre-covid levels, with Qantas Airways taking the lion's share, securing 96% capacity during the period, observes Goldman Sachs.

International capacity is only at 58% of pre-covid level, with Qantas travelling at 62%, and expected to rise to 76%-80% by June 30.

Buy rating and $8.20 target price retained.

This report was published on January 17, 2023.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $6.54 Difference: $1.66
If QAN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.70, suggesting upside of 17.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.2, implying annual growth of 7.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDR    SITEMINDER LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $3.52

Jarden rates ((SDR)) as Buy (1) –

With SiteMinder continuing to target a cashflow breakeven by the fourth quarter, Jarden anticipates the company's upcoming results could prove a positive catalyst as travel levels continue to improve towards pre-covid levels.

The broker highlights SiteMinder benefits from the ongoing recovery of the travel industry, with the company generating revenue from properties subscribing to its software and from transactions made.

The Buy rating and target price of $3.70 are retained.

This report was published on January 17, 2023.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.18
If SDR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.43, suggesting upside of 54.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -13.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 37.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUL    SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $12.25

Goldman Sachs rates ((SUL)) as Buy (1) –

Super Retail's pre-announced sales revenue outpaced Goldman Sachs' forecasts by 8%, and profit-before-tax outpaced by 14%.

Like-for-like sales grew 11%, compared with the broker's expectation of a 6% rise, thanks to strength in SuperCheap Auto, Rebel and Macpac. Profit before tax margins rose sharply to 10.8% to 11.1%.

Goldman Sachs raises earnings forecasts accordingly but takes a conservative stance on margins in recognition of growing pressure on discretionary spending and likely rising cost of goods sold, bigger discounts, and fixed cost deleverage.

Net, the broker is positive, and Super Retail is its preferred sector pick.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $14.20 from $13.90.

This report was published on January 17, 2023.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $12.25 Difference: $1.95
If SUL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.50, suggesting upside of 2.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 92.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.4, implying annual growth of -4.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.7, implying annual growth of -13.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((SUL)) as Neutral (3) –

Following a strong end to the first half from Super Retail, Jarden notes the company delivered sales and profit before tax beats of 5% and 20% respectively. The broker expects the company benefited from stock holdings carried over from previous periods at a lower cost of goods sold. 

Jarden feels earnings risk for Super Retail is set to increase over the coming year as cost of living pressures increase, and sees little in the way of positive catalysts for the company until this risk passes. 

Despite this, management is executing well and the company appears placed to win market share. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $12.35 from $10.55.

This report was published on January 17, 2023.

Target price is $12.35 Current Price is $12.25 Difference: $0.1
If SUL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.50, suggesting upside of 2.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 118.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.4, implying annual growth of -4.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 95.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.7, implying annual growth of -13.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((SUL)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons has been pleasantly surprised by Super Retail's latest market update, with the company reporting profit before tax 18.1% ahead of the broker's forecast. The broker expects much of this upside was gained from a lower than expected cost of doing business and lower depreciation and amortisation costs. 

The broker did raise concern around inventory levels moving forward, and alongside continued uncertainty around trading conditions sees the broker delay capital management expectations until the first half of FY24. 

The Market Weight rating is retained and the target price increases to $11.80 from $10.00.

This report was published on January 17, 2023.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $12.25 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.50, suggesting upside of 2.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 75.20 cents and EPS of 114.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.4, implying annual growth of -4.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 67.60 cents and EPS of 103.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.7, implying annual growth of -13.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.

This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

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