Weekly Reports | Sep 15 2022
This story features MEGAPORT LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MP1
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By Greg Peel
Week Ending September 8, 2022.
Last week saw a big drop in the ASX200 toward the end of the week as Wall Street responded in shock to Jerome Powell’s uber-hawkish Jackson Hole speech. On the last day, a bounce began which would ultimately be worth 270 points, until the US CPI result.
With the result season done and dusted last week, most of the activity was to rebuild short positions. Three stocks saw short increases of one percentage point or more, being Megaport ((MP1)), IDP Education ((IEL)) and Bank of Queensland ((BOQ)). See below.
That’s not counting another. This from last week’s Report:
Inghams Group’s ((ING)) result missed expectations, and again the stock fell sharply, so Inghams has disappeared right off the table from 8.2% shorted. However I’d strongly wager this is an ASIC data blip and Inghams will reappear next week.
It did, at 7.7%.
Otherwise we might note the return to the 5%-plus shorted table of Perpetual ((PPT)) – the wealth manager favoured amongst brokers – JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) – which has confounded shorters for decades – and Alumina Ltd ((AWC)) – which is indeed looking at lower dividends.
Weekly short positions as a percentage of market cap:
In: LKE Out: CCX
MP1, CCX, NAN, DEG
In: CCX, MP1
PBH, ING, RRL, EML, BRG, TPW
In: ING Out: MP1
92E, IEL, PNV, BGL, KGN, JHG, CUV, MFG, AMA, VUL, BOQ, APX, PNI
In: IEL, BOQ
WEB, IMU, UMG, RBL, ASM, BRN, NVX, PPT, AWC, NHC, JBH, FFX
In: NVX, PPT, AWC, JBH Out: IEL, CXO
Movers & Shakers
Network interconnection platform Megaport disappointed with its FY22 result but last week Macquarie lifted the stock to its preferred pick in the sector.
The broker feels the market under-appreciates the stickiness of the company's business model.
Shorters see less stickiness, moving shorts up to 8.7% from 7.4%.
Brokers did nothing but rave about IDP Education’s FY22 result, but again, shorters have a differing opinion over foreign students, moving shorts up to 6.9% from 5.3%.
Bank of Queensland ((BOQ)) had been perceived by brokers as one of the greater beneficiaries of higher rates, translating into higher net interest margins, until management pointed out this was not actually the case. The stock has been trending downward ever since, and last week shorts rose to 6.3% from under 5%.
ASX20 Short Positions (%)
|Code||Last Week||Week Before||Code||Last Week||Week Before|
To see the full Short Report, please go to this link
The Short Report draws upon data provided by the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) to highlight significant weekly moves in short positions registered on stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Short positions in exchange-traded funds (ETF) and non-ordinary shares are not included. Short positions below 5% are not included in the table below but may be noted in the accompanying text if deemed significant.
Please take note of the Important Information provided at the end of this report. Percentage amounts in this report refer to percentage of ordinary shares on issue.
Stock codes highlighted in green have seen their short positions reduce in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a lower percentage bracket. Stocks highlighted in red have seen their short positions increase in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a higher percentage bracket. Moves in excess of one percentage point or more are discussed in the Movers & Shakers report below.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT
The above information is sourced from daily reports published by the Australian Investment & Securities Commission (ASIC) and is provided by FNArena unqualified as a service to subscribers. FNArena would like to make it very clear that immediate assumptions cannot be drawn from the numbers alone.
It is wrong to assume that short percentages published by ASIC simply imply negative market positions held by fund managers or others looking to profit from a fall in respective share prices. While all or part of certain short percentages may indeed imply such, there are also a myriad of other reasons why a short position might be held which does not render that position “naked” given offsetting positions held elsewhere. Whatever balance of percentages truly is a “short” position would suggest there are negative views on a stock held by some in the market and also would suggest that were the news flow on that stock to turn suddenly positive, “short covering” may spark a short, sharp rally in that share price. However short positions held as an offset against another position may prove merely benign.
Often large short positions can be attributable to a listed hybrid security on the same stock where traders look to “strip out” the option value of the hybrid with offsetting listed option and stock positions. Short positions may form part of a short stock portfolio offsetting a long share price index (SPI) futures portfolio – a popular trade which seeks to exploit windows of opportunity when the SPI price trades at an overextended discount to fair value. Short positions may be held as a hedge by a broking house providing dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) underwriting services or other similar services. Short positions will occasionally need to be adopted by market makers in listed equity exchange traded fund products (EFT). All of the above are just some of the reasons why a short position may be held in a stock but can be considered benign in share price direction terms due to offsets.
Market makers in stock and stock index options will also hedge their portfolios using short positions where necessary. These delta hedges often form the other side of a client's long stock-long put option protection trade, or perhaps long stock-short call option (“buy-write”) position. In a clear example of how published short percentages can be misleading, an options market maker may hold a short position below the implied delta hedge level and that actually implies a “long” position in that stock.
Another popular trading strategy is that of “pairs trading” in which one stock is held short against a long position in another stock. Such positions look to exploit perceived imbalances in the valuations of two stocks and imply a “net neutral” market position.
Aside from all the above reasons as to why it would be a potential misconception to draw simply conclusions on short percentages, there are even wider issues to consider. ASIC itself will admit that short position data is not an exact science given the onus on market participants to declare to their broker when positions truly are “short”. Without any suggestion of deceit, there are always participants who are ignorant of the regulations. Discrepancies can also arise when short positions are held by a large investment banking operation offering multiple stock market services as well as proprietary trading activities. Such activity can introduce the possibility of either non-counting or double-counting when custodians are involved and beneficial ownership issues become unclear.
Finally, a simple fact is that the Australian Securities Exchange also keeps its own register of short positions. The figures provided by ASIC and by the ASX at any point do not necessarily correlate.
FNArena has offered this qualified explanation of the vagaries of short stock positions as a warning to subscribers not to jump to any conclusions or to make investment decisions based solely on these unqualified numbers. FNArena strongly suggests investors seek advice from their stock broker or financial adviser before acting upon any of the information provided herein.
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AWC - ALUMINA LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOQ - BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IEL - IDP EDUCATION LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ING - INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JBH - JB HI-FI LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MP1 - MEGAPORT LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PPT - PERPETUAL LIMITED