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Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 07, 2022

Daily Market Reports | Sep 07 2022

This story features A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A2M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A2M (3)   ABB   ABY (2)   ADA   AHX   APM   BVS   CUV   DOC   FMG (2)   GDC   HAS   HLO   HLS   IDX (2)   IPD (2)   JLG   LFG   LOV   M7T   MHJ   MIN   MTO   NST (2)   NTO (5)   NXT (2)   OCL   OZL (2)   PME   PNV   PPT   RMC   RMS   RUL   SYM (2)   TYR   WPR (2)   XRF  

A2M    A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $5.67

Bell Potter rates ((A2M)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Following FY22 results for a2 Milk Co where underlying profit beat expectations, Bell Potter upgrades its profit forecasts for FY23 and FY24 by 15% and 16%, respectively, and upgrades its rating to Buy from Hold.

The broker also points to a recent easing in dairy and vegetable oil ingredient forward rates, with positive implications for cost-of-goods-sold (COGS) movements in FY24. The target rises to $6.35 from $4.75.

For FY23, management expects high single digit revenue growth led by infant milk formula and US fresh milk.

This report was published on August 29, 2022.

Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $5.67 Difference: $0.68
If A2M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting downside of -10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.7, implying annual growth of 29.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((A2M)) as Neutral (3) –

FY22 revenue for a2 Milk Co rose by 20%, well in advance of the 4% forecast by Jarden, with Infant Formula (IMF) segment revenue increasing by 12% against the 6% expected. Management expects high single digit revenue growth in FY23.

The IMF business showed strength in cross-border e-commerce channels (CBEC) and China Label channels, while daigou sales fell against the previous corresponding period, explains the analyst.

An on-market buyback of NZ$150m was announced, providing a positive signal for the outlook, according to the broker.

The target price increases to NZ$5.45 from NZ$5.00. Neutral.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Current Price is $5.67. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting downside of -10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.7, implying annual growth of 29.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Wilsons rates ((A2M)) as Market Weight (3) –

a2 Milk Co reported FY22 results ahead of Wilsons' expectations.

EBITDA beat the broker's forecasts by 12% from stronger China and Asian sales and lower operating expenses, A NZ$150m share buyback was announced.

No earnings guidance was offered by management, however Wilsons is upbeat about the improved channel performance and inventory management.

The broker suggests the outlook remains challenging with headwinds from a lower Chinese birthrate and increased competition, alongside product registration deadlines.

The target price is lowered to $5.46 from $5.98 and the Market Weight rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $5.46 Current Price is $5.67 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting downside of -10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.7, implying annual growth of 29.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ABB    AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $2.49

Shaw and Partners rates ((ABB)) as Buy (1) –

Aussie Broadband's FY22 result outpaced revised expectations due to a stronger than expected second half, and Shaw and Partners observes group-wide disclosure improved sharply.

The broker says the result was strong on leverage, earnings (EBITDA) rising 100% on FY21, thanks to strong organic growth and the over the wire integration.

Shaw considered FY23 guidance to be conservative, which fell -10% below consensus and -6% short of the broker. The broker notes NBN data suggest the company is outperforming peers.

EPS forecasts rise 7% in FY23; 5% in FY24; and falls -7% in FY25. Buy rating retained. Target price inches up to $5.41 from $5.38. 

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $5.41 Current Price is $2.49 Difference: $2.92
If ABB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 117% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.90 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.70.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.89.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ABY    ADORE BEAUTY GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $1.56

Jarden rates ((ABY)) as Buy (1) –

FY22 earnings (EBITDA) for Adore Beauty missed Jarden's estimate by around -16% and the consensus expectation by -8%, though
the 2.7% margin was in line with guidance of 2-4%.

However, management has suspended  "short to medium term" EBITDA margin guidance of 2-4% in FY23. Cyclical headwinds from marketing, employee and freight costs, were noted, along with ongoing investment into the business.

While 4Q growth increased by 10% on the previous corresponding period, the first seven weeks of FY23 showed growth fell to -28%. The broker reduces its target price to $2.48 from $2.84 on lower earnings estimates.

The Buy rating is kept as the analyst feels a low multiple provides an attractive entry point for shares, while highlighting the company has no debt and $29.8m of cash on hand.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $2.48 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.92
If ABY meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 141.82.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.28.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Shaw and Partners rates ((ABY)) as Buy (1) –

Adore Beauty's FY22 result fell shy of consensus and Shaw and Partners' forecasts due to weak turnover and higher costs.

FY23 guidance disappointed, the broker considering it to be a downgrade to the company's earnings (EBITDA) margin target of 2% to 4%.

Trading in the first seven weeks of FY23 was weak but the company expects to hit double-digit growth in the June second half.

Buy rating retained, the broker appreciating the company's 100% online presence, its big addressable market, and long-term trajectory.

Target price falls to $2.50 from $3.50.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.94
If ABY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 156.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.79.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ADA    ADACEL TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $0.79

Bell Potter rates ((ADA)) as Buy (1) –

A slight miss against Bell Potter's forecast for FY22 normalised profit for Adacel Technologies resulted from lower-than-estimated Systems revenue, while Services revenue was close to in line.

FY23 guidance for earnings (EBITDA) of between US$6.7-7.2m was below the analyst's original forecasts for US$7.4m, as management plans to accelerate investments in product functions and features. Increased spending on business development is also expected.

To align with guidance, the analyst downgrades FY23 and FY24 profit (PBT) forecasts by -13% and -4%, respectively, and the target falls to $1.15 from $1.30. The Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.36
If ADA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.36 cents and EPS of 6.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.81.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.39.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AHX    APIAM ANIMAL HEALTH LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.75

Shaw and Partners rates ((AHX)) as Buy (1) –

Apiam Animal Health's FY22 result broadly met Shaw and Partners's forecasts thanks to a strong exit from June 30, plus contributions from acquisitions and improved industry conditions.

The broker notes investment was solid, laying the foundations for FY23 earnings growth; improved free cash flow; and margin expansion through greater operating leverage.

The broker estimates the company will double revenues to $300m through the rollout of clinics, acquisitions, and organic growth.

EPS forecasts rise 8% in FY23; 1% in FY24; and 9% in FY25. Buy rating retained. Target price rises 3% to $1.06.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $1.06 Current Price is $0.75 Difference: $0.31
If AHX meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.50.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.30.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APM    APM HUMAN SERVICES INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Healthcare – Overnight Price: $3.09

Goldman Sachs rates ((APM)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs assesses a strong maiden full year FY22 result for APM Human Services International, with the core operations performing ahead of expectations. 

While profits were impacted by a -$6.7m covid-related loss from the recently acquired allied health businesses, this business is expected to rapidly return to profitability.

Management implied the profit (NPATA) range for FY23 will be between $188-195m, pretty much in line with the broker’s $191.1m forecast.

The analyst forecasts a 16% EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over FY22-25, which is partly supported by the ramp-up of the  new Workforce Australia contract and upside from the disability employment services (DES) contract.

The Buy rating and $4.20 target price are maintained.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $1.11
If APM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.71.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.88.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BVS    BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.46

Jarden rates ((BVS)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden points out Bravura Solutions reported FY22 results at the lower end of the guidance range.

With little guidance the broker considers the outlook based on the "base case numbers" as not very upbeat, while greater employee numbers and rising R&D failing to be reflected in revenue growth.

The Wealth Management segment a key focus for Jarden is also deteriorating despite acquisitions and improved functions.

Earnings forecasts by the analyst are reduced by -29.8% and -24.1% for FY23 and FY24.

The Buy rating is retained and the target lowered to $2.50 from $2.55.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $1.04
If BVS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 8.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.78.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.70 cents and EPS of 10.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.04.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CUV    CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $19.60

Moelis rates ((CUV)) as Hold (3) –

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals' result delivered no surprises to Moelis, reporting 37% year-on-year revenue growth but a -16% net profit decline.

The broker attributed the decline to significantly higher than expected tax costs, offsetting strong revenue and operating expenditure control.

The broker notes the rollout of Scenesse continues to drive topline growth, anticipating its revenue contribution increased 98% on the previous year. Moelis anticipates muted growth in Europe in the coming year. 

The Hold rating is retained and target price decreases to $17.56 from $23.14.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $17.56 Current Price is $19.60 Difference: minus $2.04 (current price is over target).
If CUV meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 86.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.58.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.20 cents and EPS of 91.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.51.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DOC    DOCTOR CARE ANYWHERE GROUP PLC

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.10

Bell Potter rates ((DOC)) as Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Buy (3) –

Following 1H results for Doctor Care Anywhere, Bell Potter downgrades its rating to Speculative Hold from Buy on an uncertain journey to positive cash flow from operations. First half revenues were in line, but there was lower guidance for the 2H.

While losses are expected to reduce, the board pushed out the date for profitability beyond the 1H of FY23.

The broker's target price is slashed to $0.12 from $0.35, which incorporates the dilution caused by a capital raise of GBP$20m.

Despite exponential demand growth for appointments, there are ongoing GP shortages in the UK and platform instability (inadequate system capacity), explains the analyst.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.02
If DOC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.50.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.21.

This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG    FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $16.44

Goldman Sachs rates ((FMG)) as Sell (5) –

Fortescue Metals' FY22 result met consensus and Goldman Sachs forecasts and the dividend outpaced the broker. FY23 iron ore guidance was reiterated.

The broker says the chairman and CEO focused on Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) at the company's teleconference and the iron-ore business took a back seat.

The company maintains its targeted 10% allocation to FFI and believes it will be producing green hydrogen or ammonia by 2024 and expects its first battery-driven electric truck by 2025.

All up, Goldman Sachs estimates Fortescue will spend -US$7b greening the Pilbara and much will depend on oil and green iron ore prices to remain net-present-value positive.

EPS forecasts fall -1% to FY23; -4% for FY24; and -3% for FY25 to reflect higher depreciation and amortisation and corporate costs.

Sell rating and $12.10 target price retained.

This report was published on August 29, 2022.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $16.44 Difference: minus $4.34 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.50, suggesting upside of 3.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 112.92 cents and EPS of 160.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 51.58 cents and EPS of 93.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.9, implying annual growth of -29.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 118.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Shaw and Partners rates ((FMG)) as Hold (3) –

Fortescue Metals's FY22 broadly met consensus forecasts with shipments outpacing guidance.

Labour, diesel, and general cost inflation characterised the result and the broker says Fortescue Metals managed to hold its leading cost position, thanks to innovation-driven productivity gains.

Net debt sat at US$1.09bn and net cash at $2.7bn.

Shaw notes the company's green ambitions are more noise than substance and appears less than enthusiastic given price, earnings and dividend headwinds.

Hold rating and $17 target price retained.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $16.44 Difference: $0.56
If FMG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.50, suggesting upside of 3.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 260.28 cents and EPS of 225.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 15.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 130.21 cents and EPS of 138.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.9, implying annual growth of -29.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 118.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDC    GLOBAL DATA CENTRE GROUP

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $1.39

Moelis rates ((GDC)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis considers the FY22 results from Global Data Centre Group were in line with guidance and included $21m in acquisitions of Bangkok and Nantes Data Centres, as well as the disposal of Guam DC for $18.5m.

The broker notes the company will focus on scaling its edge data centre networks, Etix to 9MW from 4.1MW of capacity from both brownfield and existing sites.

Looking ahead, European energy prices create uncertainty for margins and the outlook. FY23 guidance will be offered at the 1H23 results announcement.

A Buy rating and a $2.10 target price.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.71
If GDC meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 57.92.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 278.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HAS    HASTINGS TECHNOLOGY METALS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $5.42

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HAS)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Hastings Technology Metals will acquire a 22% interest in Neo Performance Materials at a cost of $15.00 per share, funded by $160m in Exchangeable Notes to Wyloo Metals.

Canaccord Genuity sees potential for this purchase to expand Hastings Technology Metals from an upstream rare earth producer to an integrated mine-to-magnet business.

The broker also likes Neo Performance Materials' European presence as offering strategic opportunity as European markets reduce reliance on China.

The Speculative Buy rating and target price of $6.70 are retained.

This report was published on August 29, 2022.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $1.28
If HAS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 271.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 45.17.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLO    HELLOWORLD TRAVEL LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $2.06

Jarden rates ((HLO)) as Overweight (2) –

Helloworld Travel reported FY22 results ahead of Jarden's expectations and management offered guidance ahead of previous estimates for FY23.

The broker adjusts earnings forecasts to the lower end of guidance for FY23 and raise the FY24 slightly and expect Helloworld Travel  to benefit from the ongoing improvement in demand for travel; better margins and cost controls as well as the strength in the agent network.

An Overweight rating is retained and the price target is adjusted to $2.95 from $2.98.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.89
If HLO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 121.18.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 7.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.84.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLS    HEALIUS LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $3.64

Jarden rates ((HLS)) as Neutral (3) –

Healius reported FY22 results slightly ahead of Jarden's expectations, with a slight revenue miss, offset by better than anticipated margins.

The company offered upbeat guidance with an better management of costs, providing for improved savings and the base business.

Management  highlighted the sale of the Day Hospital division is going well and the strategy to divest Montserrat after 4 years resulted from the growing conflict with Healius increasingly seen as a competitor.

The broker adjusts earnings by 1.1% for FY23 and 3.7% for FY24 for an expected increase in PCR testing volumes.

Neutral rating is unchanged and the target is raised to $3.50 from $3.23.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting upside of 16.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.60 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.4, implying annual growth of -59.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.80 cents and EPS of 22.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of 7.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IDX    INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $2.80

Goldman Sachs rates ((IDX)) as Buy (1) –

While Integral Diagnostics' pre-announced FY22 result was largely as expected, Goldman Sachs says earnings (EBITDA) missed former consensus forecasts by -10%, and net profit after tax fell -23% short.

Management discussed capital deployment (which guides to no M&A in the near term) and the shape of the recovery, and the broker says both were underwhelming. No trading update was provided for the first two months of FY23.

The broker expects that staffing availability should improve, which combined with a guided volume recovery, should reverse the negative jaws of FY22, and notes operations continue to outperform peers.

Buy rating retained. Target price slips to $3.30 from $3.50.

This report was published on August 29, 2022.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.5
If IDX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 14.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.6, implying annual growth of 94.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.1, implying annual growth of 25.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Wilsons rates ((IDX)) as Market Weight (3) –

Integral Diagnostics confirmed the pre-announced weaker FY22, reflecting a 43% fall in operating profits, notes Wilsons.

The broker revised down earnings forecasts post the pre-announcement by -12% and -22% for FY23 and FY24, respectively. with the adverse market conditions continuing to impact on margins and costs into the 1H23.

Management highlighted options for capital expenditure in both brown/greenfield developments which Wilsons views as a positive for the company

The target is raised to $3 from $2.91, adjusting for the revised DCF.

A Market Weight rating is retained, although Wilsons consider the company is a potential takeover target as part of industry consolidation in the radiology sector.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.2
If IDX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 14.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.6, implying annual growth of 94.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.1, implying annual growth of 25.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPD    IMPEDIMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.06

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IPD)) as Buy (1) –

FY22 opex for ImpediMed was around -11.7% lower than Canaccord Genuity expected, which results in a circa 25% improvement in the broker's forecast operating loss for FY23.

Forecast FY24 earnings also nearly double and the broker's target is raised to $0.18 from $0.16.

The installed base of SOZO units increased by 129 units to 880 units compared to the analyst's 934 forecast, which drove lower-than-expected SaaS revenue, which still increased by around 31% year-on-year.

The Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.12
If IPD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 200% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.50.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Wilsons rates ((IPD)) as Overweight (1) –

ImpediMed reported FY22 results with 27% growth in revenue, a slight miss on Wilsons' forecasts of $10.8m and SaaS revenue grew 47% to $8.8m.

Wilsons highlights the large discrepancy between its price target and the share price reflects the assumption that ImpediMed will secure NCCN guideline inclusion for the Prevent trial data, which would allow for an acceleration in the growth of the SOZO business.

Failure to achieve this would be a negative for company, shifting the focus to alternative strategies and potentially signaling the need for more equity raising.

An Overweight rating and $0.30 target price are maintained.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.24
If IPD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 400% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.67.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.57.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JLG    JOHNS LYNG GROUP LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $6.74

Goldman Sachs rates ((JLG)) as Buy (1) –

Johns Lyng's FY22 result appears to have satisfied Goldman Sachs and looking forward the broker expects an upgrade to FY23 guidance given the company's strong pipeline ($300m is yet to be included in guidance); a guided increase in the backlog to 46% on stable margins; and a resilient cost base.

The broker admires the company's forecast 23% earnings compound annual growth rate between FY22 and FY25 and M&A prospects; and views the company as a defensive growth opportunity.

EPS forecasts fall -2.7% in FY23 and -5.2% in FY24, the broker expecting softer margins, higher depreciation and amortisation.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls -10% to $10.20 from $11.35.

This report was published on August 29, 2022.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $6.74 Difference: $3.46
If JLG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.64.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.08.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LFG    LIBERTY FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $4.26

Jarden rates ((LFG)) as Neutral (3) –

Higher margin compression and lower fee income in 2H for Liberty Financial resulted in a slight miss for FY22 results compared to Jarden's forecasts. Near-term EPS declines are forecast due to industry headwinds and the Neutral rating is unchanged.

While the broker lowers its FY23 and FY24 EPS forecasts by around -3% on a lower net interest margin and a higher share count, the target rises to $4.50 from $4.40 to align with improved peer multiples.

Management highlighted slower mortgage growth, but accelerating growth in asset finance. The analyst expects new loan approvals will fall by around -24% year-on-year in FY23.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.26 Difference: $0.24
If LFG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.73, suggesting upside of 9.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 61.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.0, implying annual growth of -18.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 60.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.8, implying annual growth of 1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV    LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $22.87

Jarden rates ((LOV)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Jarden moves to an Overweight rating from Neutral for Lovisa Holdings following an 8% revenue beat for FY22 and a 6% beat versus the consensus forecast. Price increases also drove gross margins to 78.9% compared to the broker's 77% estimate.

In addition, the trading update for the first seven weeks of FY23 revealed revenue growth of 66%, tracking well ahead of the FY23 consensus growth forecast of 23%.

The broker raises its FY23 and FY24 revenue forecasts by 15% and 19%, respectively, on increased store rollout estimates (particularly in the US) and after also allowing for entry into new markets. The target price rises to $22.29 from $18.22.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $22.29 Current Price is $22.87 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $22.84, suggesting downside of -0.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.9, implying annual growth of 23.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 86.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.8, implying annual growth of 19.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

M7T    MACH7 TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.64

Shaw and Partners rates ((M7T)) as Buy (1) –

Mach7 Technologies's FY22 result slightly outpaced guidance and FY23 guidance was pre-announced.

Shaw and Partners reports the company's pipeline has grown 30% this financial year – 3x its targets. Costs slightly disappointed but the broker expects these to ease from here on out.

The broker observes strong operational momentum should translate to strong growth and operating leverage should improve given economies of scale.

Buy rating and $1.20 target price retained, the broker considering Mach7 to be its top sector pick. 

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.56
If M7T meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.70.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 33.68.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MHJ    MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Luxury – Overnight Price: $1.17

Jarden rates ((MHJ)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden assesses a solid FY22 result (in line with consensus forecasts) in a challenging, covid-disrupted operating environment. Following 760bps of earnings (EBIT) margin expansion, Canadian margins are now consistent with Australia, highlights the analyst.

The broker notes sales momentum from the trading update for the first eight weeks of FY23, and management also pointed to gross margin strength. 

The company intends to buyback around $20m of its shares, and going forward expects to pay dividends at the top-end of its target payout range of 50-75% of underlying profit.

The Overweight rating is unchanged, while the target falls to NZ$1.50 from NZ$1.55.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Current Price is $1.17. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.73.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 14.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.85.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN    MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $60.34

Goldman Sachs rates ((MIN)) as Buy (1) –

Mineral Resources's FY22 earnings (EBITDA) fell -15% short of consensus and -6% short of Goldman Sachs's forecasts. FY23 guidance slightly disappointed the broker as costs continue to bite.

The dividend sharply outpaced the broker, and net debt of $698m sharply disappointed following the company's big capex spend on lithium, as did operating cash flow.

Mineral Resources and its partners have given the green light to the Ashburton iron project, and first production is tipped for late 2023.

Baosteel, a partner, can take up to 80% of production, and Mineral Resources still has the right to sell part of InfraCo to support the balance sheet, points out the broker.

Goldman Sachs appreciates the company's short-term volume and earnings growth prospects, expecting earnings to double in FY23 as lithium volumes soar.

EPS forecasts fall -10% in FY23; rise 9% in FY24; and rise 39% in FY25. Buy rating retained. Target price rises 9% to $69.50 from $63.60.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $69.50 Current Price is $60.34 Difference: $9.16
If MIN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $79.76, suggesting upside of 35.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 192.00 cents and EPS of 618.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1031.8, implying annual growth of 458.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 545.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 107.00 cents and EPS of 268.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1070.7, implying annual growth of 3.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 471.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTO    MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $2.39

Wilsons rates ((MTO)) as Market Weight (3) –

Motorcycle Holdings reported "resilient" FY22 results according to Wilsons, with lower margins in accessories offset by growth in sales for both new and used bikes.

The company goes into FY23 with a record order book and ongoing strong demand, notes the analyst.

Management offered no earnings guidance but did highlight the potential headwinds for the consumer from higher living costs.

Looking ahead, Wilsons is focusing on cost management and the resilience of margins, pointing out the strength in the balance sheet provides opportunities to grow through non-organic means.

The Market Weight rating is retained and the target price is revised to $2.40 from $3.13, after adjusting earnings forecasts and the valuation.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: $0.01
If MTO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 38.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.27.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 34.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.99.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST    NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $7.35

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NST)) as Buy (1) –

A largely in-line result from Northern Star Resources according to Canaccord Genuity, with the company reporting revenue of $3,735m, earnings of $1,517m and net profit of $273m. A final dividend of 11.5 cents per share was higher than anticipated. 

The broker notes Northern Star announced a $300m on-market share buyback, with the company confident in its ability to fund its growth pipeline alongside the buyback.

The Buy rating and target price of $12.15 are retained. 

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $12.15 Current Price is $7.35 Difference: $4.8
If NST meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.98, suggesting upside of 38.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of -17.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 76.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.2, implying annual growth of 24.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Shaw and Partners rates ((NST)) as Buy (1) –

Northern Star Resources' FY22 earnings (EBITDA) fell shy of consensus forecasts.

The company has announced a $300m buyback, its first, and management has targeted a 20% to 30% dividend payout of cash earnings. 

Shaw and Partners spies no problems with the balance sheet and added up, these all point to a story of disciplined capital management, says the broker.

Management reiterated FY guidance.

Buy rating retained, the broker pointing to a compound annual growth rate of 5% in tier 1 areas. $12.80 target price retained.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $7.35 Difference: $5.45
If NST meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.98, suggesting upside of 38.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 47.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of -17.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 47.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.2, implying annual growth of 24.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NTO    NITRO SOFTWARE LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $1.62

Bell Potter rates ((NTO)) as Buy (1) –

The first half operating EBITDA loss for Nitro Software of -US$6.3m was -8% worse than Bell Potter's forecast. As expected, no interim dividend was declared.

Management reiterated FY22 guidance and expects the company to be cash flow positive in 2H of 2023.

After introducing more conservatism into forecasts, and after allowing for the challenging macroeconomic backdrop, the broker lowers its FY22-24 revenue forecasts by -2%, -3% and -3%, respectively. 

The target falls to $1.60 from $1.80 and the Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If NTO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 18.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.80.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.36.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Goldman Sachs rates ((NTO)) as Buy (1) –

Nitro Software's June first-half result outpaced Goldman Sachs' forecasts thanks to gains from its cost cutting program.

The broker expects the cost base will remain flat going forward, allowing the company to leverage recent investments and meet guidance.

Management reiterates expectations that it will be cash-flow positive by the end of 2023. The broker notes that were Nitro to use the same accounting practices as competitors, it would be earnings positive by June.

Goldman Sachs appreciates Nitro's strong cash position and says now it all comes down to execution and annual recurring revenue.

Buy rating and $2.05 target price retained. 

This report was published on August 29, 2022.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.43
If NTO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 18.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.94.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.53.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((NTO)) as Buy (1) –

First half annual recurring revenue for Nitro Software of $51.5m fell short of the $54.1m expected by Jarden.

Management's key aim is to be cash flow positive for 2H of FY23, and the company is on-track to reduce costs by -$5m in the 2H of FY22, 54% of which will result from decreasing sales and marketing spend.

EPS forecasts for FY22 and FY23 are raised by 5.8% and 37.8%, respectively, while outer year forecasts are slashed by -32% on reduced growth from the lower sales and marketing expenses, explains Jarden. The target falls to $2.07 from $3.36. Buy.

The broker cautions further M&A or lower future revenues would potentially require additional capital requirements.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $2.07 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.45
If NTO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.28.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.75.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Shaw and Partners rates ((NTO)) as Hold (3) –

Nitro's June first-half result met pre-announced FY22 guidance, and annual recurring revenue guidance was reiterated. Management also reaffirmed its intention to be cash-flow positive by the end of 2023.

Costs proved a slight beat on Shaw and Partners' forecasts and the broker expects costs will continue to fall over FY23, and that the company's FY23 cash position should improve sharply.

Still, the macro environment continues to deteriorate and this is reflected in guidance, says the broker. The big plus is the company's fully funded position.

Buy rating and $2 target price retained.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.38
If NTO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.66.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.17.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Wilsons rates ((NTO)) as Overweight (1) –

Nitro Software essentially pre-announced the 1H22 results in late July when the FY22 guidance was updated, highlights Wilsons.

The broker considers management's guidance is conservative and is only assuming 5% growth in revenues for 2H22, which is lower than the broker's revenue forecast of 10%.

In addition, Wilsons notes lumpiness in the pipeline due to some existing customers deferring sales post the Connective acquisition, but sees eventual sales at higher rates as still possible in the future.

An Overweight rating is retained and the price target is revised to $1.67 from $1.93 adjusting for the lower valuation from higher interest rates.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $1.67 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.05
If NTO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.10.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.24.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXT    NEXTDC LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $9.85

Goldman Sachs rates ((NXT)) as Buy (1) –

NextDC's FY22 result met guidance, but fell -1% shy of Goldman Sachs's forecasts. FY23 earnings (EBITDA) guidance proved a 1% beat.

The broker observes weak operating leverage, low cash conversion, strong pricing power, hefty start-up facility costs for S3/M3, and ongoing supply change challenges.

The company is updating its Asia strategy and the broker expects management will be pursuing both acquisitions and organic growth in the region, and casts a cautious eye to the balance sheet.

Buy rating retained, the broker expecting a rebound after supply chains normalise and S3/M3 earnings kick in. Target price rises 1% to $14.30.

This report was published on August 29, 2022.

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $9.85 Difference: $4.45
If NXT meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.76, suggesting upside of 31.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 492.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.2, implying annual growth of 10.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 440.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 328.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.8, implying annual growth of 72.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 254.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Wilsons rates ((NXT)) as Overweight (1) –

NextDC reported an expected "solid" FY22 result according to Wilsons with revenue in line with guidance but slightly below consensus and expectations.

The analyst anticipates operating leverage to moderate with higher power prices and brings the EBITDA and Revenue growth forecasts in line to 16% for FY23, with a return to normal in FY24.

Management guided to lower than expected capital expenditure of -$150m but as some was pulled forward to FY22, the broker considers the change as more of a timing issue.

Earnings forecasts are adjusted for the updated guidance and EBITDA is increased by 2% and 3% for FY23 and FY24, respectively.

Wilsons adjusts the target price to $11.55 from $13.87 due to a lower valuation.

Overweight rating retained.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $11.55 Current Price is $9.85 Difference: $1.7
If NXT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.76, suggesting upside of 31.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 234.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.2, implying annual growth of 10.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 440.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 133.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.8, implying annual growth of 72.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 254.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OCL    OBJECTIVE CORPORATION LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $14.50

Goldman Sachs rates ((OCL)) as Neutral (3) –

Objective Corp's FY22 result appears to have fallen shy of Goldman Sachs' forecasts due in part to labour shortages, and the broker, while remaining upbeat, expects the focus will shift to annual recurring revenues (ARR) as perpetual sales cease and will prove a slight headwind for FY23.

EPS forecasts are trimmed accordingly

Strong cash generation offers M&A opportunities and the broker expects the company will likely seek to buy while tech prices are low.

Goldman Sachs also believes the company is on the way to becoming the region's de facto building consent software platform.

Buy rating retained, the broker considering the company to be one of the best defensive growth franchises in its ANZ technology, media and telecommunications coverage.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls -3% to $18.40 from $18.90.

This report was published on August 29, 2022.

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $14.50 Difference: $3.9
If OCL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 63.04.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.94.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OZL    OZ MINERALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $26.00

Bell Potter rates ((OZL)) as Hold (3) –

First half results for OZ Minerals revealed production and costs were impacted by rising energy and labour costs, inclement South Australian weather and covid-related absenteeism, explains Bell Potter.

Courtesy of BHP Group's ((BHP)) recently-rejected $25/share cash takeover offer, the analyst retains a $25 target price, though suggests the results weaken the company's case for independence.

The broker lowers its 2022 earnings forecast by -43% on lower forecast revenues and higher D&A charges. Hold.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $26.00 Difference: minus $1 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $24.50, suggesting downside of -4.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 58.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.1, implying annual growth of -47.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 120.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.5, implying annual growth of 25.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Shaw and Partners rates ((OZL)) as Buy (1) –

OZ Minerals June pre-guided first-half result appears a touch shy of consensus, says Shaw and Partners.

FY22 cost and production guidance was reiterated.

The company reports growing momentum.

The broker remains glowing on the company's turnaround and momentum but says all this is a merely a sideshow to the BHP ((BHP)) bid.

Shaw expects BHP will either lift its bid or Oz Minerals will remain independent and in a great position to deliver to shareholders – a win either way.

Buy rating, high risk, retained. Target price steady at $30.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $26.00 Difference: $4
If OZL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.50, suggesting downside of -4.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 90.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.1, implying annual growth of -47.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 125.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.5, implying annual growth of 25.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PME    PRO MEDICUS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $53.76

Wilsons rates ((PME)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons highlights Pro Medicus announced three new contract wins and one renewal for the Visage 7 product in the US market.

The 7-year minimum renewal, valued at $15.5m for the University of Florida, exemplifies the 100% renewal rate for existing customers, as well as the ability to negotiate at higher prices.

Wilsons continues to view the US total addressable market (TAM) as very attractive for long-term growth. The three new contracts, across a diverse base, reflect the appeal of the Visage 7 product for the US radiology market, the broker suggests.

The $62 target price and Overweight rating are unchanged.

This report was published on August 29, 2022.

Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $53.76 Difference: $8.24
If PME meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.80 cents and EPS of 55.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 96.69.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 32.90 cents and EPS of 65.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 81.58.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNV    POLYNOVO LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $1.30

Bell Potter rates ((PNV)) as Buy (1) –

FY22 results for PolyNovo revealed a -4% miss on revenue compared to Bell Potter's forecast. However, after record 3Q sales, the analyst has stronger expectations for Novosorb BTM sales.

Novosorb BTM converts a large wound into a series of micro wounds, more easily healed by the body. 

The broker's target rises to $1.90 from $1.50 after incorporating into forecasts a Novosorb BTM expansion in the Asian market and greater penetration within the US market from existing and new accounts. MTX is also expected to launch during the 2H of FY23.

The new MTX product allows application in complex wounds over joints and ulcers. Buy.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.6
If PNV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 260.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.52.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPT    PERPETUAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $26.43

Bell Potter rates ((PPT)) as Buy (1) –

Perpetual's FY22 result outpaced Bell Potter's forecasts, thanks to strong underlying profitability and the inclusion of Barrow Hanley, notes the broker.

The broker considers the Pendal acquisition to be a good one. EPS forecasts slip -0.1% for FY2023; and rise 0.5% for FY24.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $39.80 from $38.40.

This report was published on August 29, 2022.

Target price is $39.80 Current Price is $26.43 Difference: $13.37
If PPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $31.60, suggesting upside of 19.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 207.00 cents and EPS of 237.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 213.0, implying annual growth of 18.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 184.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 217.00 cents and EPS of 278.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.4, implying annual growth of 12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 206.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMC    RESIMAC GROUP LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $1.19

Wilsons rates ((RMC)) as Market Weight (3) –

Resimac Group reported FY22 results at the top end of consensus expectations due to higher Other Income, according to Wilsons.

However, the broker considers the results a miss on every metric, except net interest margin (NIM), with higher than forecast loan losses, plus the company has lost share in the Prime customer tier and gained share in the Near-prime customer.

Management offered no official earnings guidance.

Wilsons adjusts earnings forecasts for lower NIM, a higher roll-off rate and a reduced loan book, by -11.4% for FY23 and -5.5% for FY24.

Market Weight rating and a $1.30 target price.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.11
If RMC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.40 cents and EPS of 20.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.80.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.30 cents and EPS of 23.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.06.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMS    RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.72

Shaw and Partners rates ((RMS)) as Buy (1) –

Ramelius Resources' pre-announced result broadly met Shaw and Partners forecasts, a -$94.5m impairment at Edna May proving the low-light.

Management announced a 1c dividend, -50% short of consensus forecasts. EPS and DPS forecasts fall accordingly.

The broker tries to account for managements track record for conservative guidance and hence sets its cost assumptions at the low end of guidance.

Buy, High Risk rating and $1.50 target price retained.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.78
If RMS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 108% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 70.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 10.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.0, implying annual growth of 105.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 13.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 286.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RUL    RPMGLOBAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.53

Moelis rates ((RUL)) as Buy (1) –

RPMGlobal reported FY22 results lower than Moelis' expectations which was largely due to higher than forecast bonuses in the 2H22.

On balance, the broker notes FY22 was a strong year for software (ARR grew 50%) and advisory sales up 46%, while management offered robust guidance for FY23 with higher margin subscription growth coming through.

Moelis adjusts EBITDA to $12.7m for FY23 which allows for higher costs and revenues in line with guidance.

The target price is raised to $2.03 from $1.94 and the Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $2.03 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.5
If RUL meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 68.30.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.97.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYM    SYMBIO HOLDINGS LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $3.51

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SYM)) as Buy (1) –

The market has not responded well to Symbio Holdings' results release, with Canaccord Genuity noting the commitment to investing in cost base may have been the driver of negative sentiment.

The broker notes earnings in the coming year will be impacted by increased operating expenditure costs and investment, but found the 20% year-on-year recurring gross profit growth guidance a positive. 

Canaccord Genuity forecasts earnings of $37.4m in the coming year, a -7% decline on its previous estimate. 

The Buy rating and target price of $5.30 are retained.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $1.79
If SYM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.50.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.95.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Moelis rates ((SYM)) as Hold (3) –

Symbio Holdings reported FY22 results in line with Moelis' expectations.

Management guided to EBITDA of $36m to $39m for FY23 with increased investment in the SEA Asian platform as well as $43m in cash on the balance sheet available to pursue acquisitions and overseas growth.

Moelis considers B/E in SGP plus and the launch of the Malaysian network are major "de-risking" events for 2H23.

The target price is adjusted to $4.24 from $4.75 and the rating is Hold.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $4.24 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.73
If SYM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 19.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 20.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.96.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TYR    TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.97

Wilsons rates ((TYR)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons assesses the Tyro Payments FY22 results as better than expectations with both revenue and earnings coming in above forecasts.

The broker highlights management announced a positive guidance surprise for FY23 of TTV between $40-$42bn and a welcome conservative approach to future investment.

Nevertheless, Wilsons sees challenges for Tyro Payments from competition, macro headwinds and the search for a new CEO.

A Market Weight is retained and the target price is $1.08.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $1.08 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $0.11
If TYR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting upside of 56.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 138.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 323.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPR    WAYPOINT REIT LIMITED

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.56

Goldman Sachs rates ((WPR)) as Buy (1) –

Waypoint REIT's June first-half distributable EPS of 8.6c outpaced Goldman Sachs' forecast 8.2c. Management has reiterated FY22 EPS guidance of 16.44c.

Growth in like-for-like rents only partly offset lost income from asset sales, says the broker, and management and interest expense proved a beat.

The company has announced a $100m on-market buyback; gearing was a solid beat and below the company's target range, the weighted average lease expiry sat at 9.5 years, and net tangible assets rose 7.8%.

Buy rating and $3.06 target price retained.

This report was published on August 29, 2022.

Target price is $3.06 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.5
If WPR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 4.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of -71.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Moelis rates ((WPR)) as Buy (1) –

Following 1H results for Waypoint REIT, Moelis estimates FY22 guidance for distributable income of 16.44cpu is on track. The REIT also announced the sale of -29 service stations for $142m and proceeds will be used to help fund an around $100m buyback.

An average hedge maturity of 3.5 years is largely unchanged since December 2021. Net tangible assets (NTA) per unit increased to $3.18 at June 30 from $2.95 at December 2021, with valuation gains accounting for 19cpu.

The broker's target price increases to $3.05 from $3.02 (which excludes accretion forecasts from the buyback), and the Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 30, 2022.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.49
If WPR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 4.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 16.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of -71.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 16.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XRF    XRF SCIENTIFIC LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.72

Canaccord Genuity rates ((XRF)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

XRF Scientific's full year earnings exceeded expectations according to Canaccord Genuity, which also noted revenue growth in the fourth quarter indicated a positive start to the new financial year.

The broker expects inventory build, at the expense of operating cash flow, to continue into FY23.

Despite no company guidance, Canaccord Genuity expects another strong year for XRF Scientific. The company suggested geographic expansion, new product releases, and further acquisition were of interest. 

The Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $0.83 from $0.71.

This report was published on August 28, 2022.

Target price is $0.83 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.11
If XRF meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 4.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.40.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

As part of emerging new trends overseas, The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition also includes providers of sponsored research. Readers should bear in mind, sponsored research, while not necessarily of lower quality, has the embedded complication that the company that is the subject of the research has paid for this research. Providers of sponsored research that can potentially be included in this Report are Breakaway Research, Edison Investment Research, Independent Investment Research, NDF Research, Pitt Street Research, and TMT Analytics.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

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