Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 20, 2022

This story features EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APE

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

APE (3)   CXL   ELD   GMA   NWS   PLT (2)   QUB   RDY   SUN  

APE    EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $11.04

Bell Potter rates ((APE)) as Buy (1) –

Eagers Automotive notes new vehicle demand continues to outpace supply, driving the company's order book up more than 25% since December.

Bell Potter notes an anticipated reduction in vehicles delivered to customers in the first half is driving an expected -12-15% profit decline on the previous comparable period.

The broker expects a similar result in the second half, anticipating supply constraints are unlikely to ease in the short-term.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $15.50 from $17.25.

This report was published on May 19, 2022.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $11.04 Difference: $4.46
If APE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.35, suggesting upside of 48.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 47.50 cents and EPS of 115.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.4, implying annual growth of -17.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 47.50 cents and EPS of 91.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.9, implying annual growth of -5.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((APE)) as Buy (1) –

Eagers Automotive's tightened first-half guidance disappointed Moelis, as new-vehicle deliveries failed to materialise, but the broker notes demand for new vehicles remains strong and the company's pipeline is solid and conditions will remain supportive throughout 2022.

Most manufacturing nations are forecasting a rise in global output over the next year and Moelis says the company is well positioned to deliver a strong upward skew in the December half.

The broker also expects cost discipline, rationalisation of the dealer network and IT investment will deliver strong margin growth.

FY22-FY23 EPS forecasts are unchanged. Buy rating and $16.96 target price retained.

This report was published on May 18, 2022.

Target price is $16.96 Current Price is $11.04 Difference: $5.92
If APE meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.35, suggesting upside of 48.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 72.30 cents and EPS of 105.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.4, implying annual growth of -17.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 70.60 cents and EPS of 103.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.9, implying annual growth of -5.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((APE)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

Eagers Automotive's AGM trading update proved a mixed bag, strong margins and new vehicle demand battling with supply constraints to delay earnings.

Wilsons takes the opportunity to cut EPS forecasts -8% in 2022 and -7% in 2024 to reflect higher depreciation and amortisation, and interest costs, and the broker notes recent peer results in North America point to softening used-vehicle demand and margins.

But given the new car order book is 25% above 2021 and demand for new vehicles remains buoyant, Wilsons upgrades to Overweight, appreciating Eager's management, strategy, second-half earnings skew and attractive valuation.

Target price inches up to $13.77 from $13.75.

This report was published on May 19, 2022.

Target price is $13.77 Current Price is $11.04 Difference: $2.73
If APE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.35, suggesting upside of 48.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 70.70 cents and EPS of 104.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.4, implying annual growth of -17.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 65.90 cents and EPS of 99.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.9, implying annual growth of -5.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXL    CALIX LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $7.47

Bell Potter rates ((CXL)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter notes two of Calix's development partners, Boral ((BLD)) and Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)), have been awarded a combined $50m in government grants for projects developing Calix's chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) technology for commercial use.

The broker anticipates the grant award for the Calix-Pilbara Minerals project could suggest an intention for the companies to progress to a joint venture partnership, and open Calix's technology to a new market.

With the company aiming to convert at least one of two Low Emissions Intensity Lime And Cement (LEILCA) memorandums of understanding to license agreements before the end of the financial year, the broker anticipates another project announcement ahead.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $9.21 from $7.85.

This report was published on May 19, 2022.

Target price is $9.21 Current Price is $7.47 Difference: $1.74
If CXL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 111.49.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 933.75.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELD    ELDERS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $13.92

Goldman Sachs rates ((ELD)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs is anticipating a strong start to the year from Elders, anticipating market conditions, including record livestock prices, strong real estate volumes and good growing conditions, coupled with continued strategy execution should support a good first half result. 

Further, Goldman Sachs expects Elders' result will put it on the path to reach the upper end of its 20-30% full year earnings growth guidance range, forecasting 27% earnings growth. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $18.40 from $17.65.

This report was published on May 19, 2022.

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $13.92 Difference: $4.48
If ELD meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.46, suggesting upside of 3.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.0, implying annual growth of -8.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 99.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.8, implying annual growth of -7.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMA    GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $3.03

Goldman Sachs rates ((GMA)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia has reiterated it remains committed to capital management and ongoing activities aimed at returning capital levels to the target range within two years, but has revised its Prescribed Capital Amount (PCA) target range to 1.4-1.5x the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority's PCA.

The broker estimates capital surplus will now amount to $400m over the top end of range, compared to $500m on the previous target range. Additionally, the company has suggested further buybacks to support capital returns were a possibility. 

The Buy rating and target price of $3.54 are retained.

This report was published on May 19, 2022.

Target price is $3.54 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.51
If GMA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 15.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.73.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.97.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWS    NEWS CORPORATION

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $25.31

JP Morgan rates ((NWS)) as Overweight (1) –

Following third quarter results that exceeded expectations, JP Morgan continues to believe News Corp's shares are undervalued on a sum-of-the-parts basis and retains its Overweight rating. The target price is reduced to $38.00 from $40.00.

Revenue for the 3Q was close to the consensus estimate, while strong profitability saw earnings (EBITDA) beat the broker's forecast.

While the analyst expects a conglomerate discount for News Corp shares, the current disconnect doesn't tally with management’s efforts to improve disclosure and streamline the business.

This report was published on May 17, 2022.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $25.31 Difference: $12.69
If NWS meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $39.63, suggesting upside of 56.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.29 cents and EPS of 133.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 126.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.29 cents and EPS of 178.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.3, implying annual growth of 21.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLT    PLENTI GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.78

Shaw and Partners rates ((PLT)) as Buy (1) –

Plenti Group's FY22 results were ahead of Shaw and Partners expectations. The group’s cost to income ratio fell to just 43.6% in the 2H from 54.9% in the 1H, and the analyst expects expect further operating leverage as the loan book grows.

The broker highlights car lending continues to be the core source of growth in the overall loan book, while repeat customers and a stronger broker channel performance is lifting the personal lending segment.

Management expects to achieve a $5bn loan portfolio in FY25, and is currently on-track to achieving this target. 

As a result of market conditions, Shaw and Partners adjusts net interest margin expectations and operating expenses. After higher corporate debt costs from FY22 are also allowed for, the target price falls to $1.62 from $1.87. Buy.

This report was published on May 19, 2022.

Target price is $1.62 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.84
If PLT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 108% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.29.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 390.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((PLT)) as Overweight (1) –

Plenti Group's FY22 full-year result disappointed Wilsons, management providing a mixed outlook given challenging trading conditions.

The company expects immediate term origination growth will moderate in the first half as increased funding costs are passed on to borrowers but expects a recovery should soon follow and net interest margins should normalise in the second half as originations tick back up.

In the medium term, Wilsons expects the addition of commercial auto loans, the launch of the company's dealership point-of-sale product, and its entry into electric vehicle loans, should boost origination.

Overweight rating retained. Target price falls -23.8% to $1.60 from $2.10. Overweight rating retained.

This report was published on May 19, 2022.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.82
If PLT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 105% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.67.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.29.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB    QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $2.98

JP Morgan rates ((QUB)) as Overweight (1) –

Qube Holdings has completed its $400m off-market buyback of shares. As a result, JP Morgan makes around -1-3% cuts to its profit forecasts to reflecting higher interest costs as cash is repatriated to shareholders rather than applied against debt.

Nonetheless, a significant reduction in shares on issue results in upgrades to EPS forecasts of around 5-7%, explains the analyst.

The broker lowers its target price to $3.60 from $3.80 and retains its Overweight rating. 

This report was published on May 17, 2022.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.62
If QUB meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.33, suggesting upside of 11.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of 102.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.4.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.4, implying annual growth of 16.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RDY    READYTECH HOLDINGS LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $3.03

Jarden rates ((RDY)) as Overweight (2) –

With ReadyTech Holdings' share price falling -29% over the last six months, alongside Jarden's investment thesis that the company offers steady growth and cash flow trajectory, the broker notes the price now offers a more attractive entry point.

While the ASX All Technology index has declined -37% in the same period, the broker feels ReadyTech's decline has been overdone given revenue and earnings guidance have remained consistent.

Longer-term, the company has upgraded its FY26 organic revenue target by 12% to more than $140m. The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.37 from $4.68.

This report was published on May 18, 2022.

Target price is $4.37 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $1.34
If RDY meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.12.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.94.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $12.05

Jarden rates ((SUN)) as Overweight (2) –

According to Jarden's data read-through, claims inflation has accelerated significantly in the last six months and the broker anticipates elevation to be retained through 2022, presenting a key risk to higher insurance trading ratio margins for Suncorp Group.

Industry-wide insurance trading ratios look to face a number of headwinds in the coming financial year, including higher catastrophe event budgets and rising reinsurance costs.

The broker anticipates Suncorp Group can grow its underlying insurance trading ratio growth to 11.5% by FY24.

The broker notes better value elsewhere in the sector. The Overweight rating and target price of $13.00 are retained.

This report was published on May 18, 2022.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.05 Difference: $0.95
If SUN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.81, suggesting upside of 14.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 65.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.1, implying annual growth of -19.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 93.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.9, implying annual growth of 35.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

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