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Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 17, 2022

Daily Market Reports | May 17 2022

This story features LIFE360 INC, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 360

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

360   5GG   ALL   AMC   AUB   BLX   BSL   BWX (2)   CAJ   CKF   CRN   CSR   DEG   EHE   FLT   GNC   GT1   IDX   IEL   JHG   JHX   LIC   LOV   MAP   MCP   MFG   MGR   MTS   NAB   NAN   NWL   ORA   PDL   PMV   PPH   QBE   SGF   SLR   SUL   TCL   TNE   WBC (2)   WEB   WES  

360    LIFE360, INC

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $3.63

Bell Potter rates ((360)) as Buy (1) –

Life 360's March-quarter Appendix 4c's revelation of negative cash flow of US$38m and cash of US$98m looks scary at first, says Bell Potter, suggesting a capital raising might be in the wings. 

Not so, says the broker, who after adjusting for one-offs pegs normalised operating cash flow at -US$17m, which assuming a continuation of the trend, should leave a cash balance of US$72m to US$73m by year end. Earnings estimates are unchanged.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls -9% to $7.50 form $8.25 to account for market movements and time creep, and the broker raises to weighted average cost of capital 0.3 percentage points to be conservative.

This report was published on May 6, 2022.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: $3.87
If 360 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 107% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 35.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.09.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.37.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

5GG    PENTANET LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $0.28

Shaw and Partners rates ((5GG)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage of Pentanet with a Buy (High Risk) rating and 40c target price.

Pentanet is a Perth-based telecom with a high-margin, high-speed fixed wireless network, and has invested in a fledgling cloud gaming business with its partner US-listed Nvidia on the Cloud.GG platform.

The broker believes successful strategic execution should deliver high-margin customer growth. The broker appreciates the potential of the prospect, and notes the company is close to break even on an operating cash flow basis, and should move to positive earnings of $2.4m in FY24 (although EPS forecasts are negative out to and including FY24).

This report was published on May 10, 2022.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.12
If 5GG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.18.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.73.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALL    ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $31.65

Jarden rates ((ALL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes Aristocrat Leisure's refinance and terming-out of its debt obligations opens the door for large scale M&A activity and capital management.

Aristocrat will replace its existing US$1.85bn Term Loan B with a US$1.35bn Term Loan A (May 2027) and a US$500m Term Loan B (May 2029). The company's revolving credit facility will rise to a multi-currency US$500m revolver from $286m, with its maturity extended to May 2027.

Previously, the broker had assumed debt would be repaid to avoid negative carry and while it is uncertain of the rationale behind running such a big cash balance, it adds a buy-back prospect to its M&A prospect.

Overweight rating retained. Target price eases to $39.23 from $39.28.

This report was published on May 9, 2022.

Target price is $39.23 Current Price is $31.65 Difference: $7.58
If ALL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $46.25, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 144.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.4, implying annual growth of 19.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 156.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.5, implying annual growth of 15.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMC    AMCOR PLC

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $18.47

Jarden rates ((AMC)) as Buy (1) –

Despite an inflationary environment, Amcor's third quarter earnings per share were a 3% beat to consensus while the company also managed to retain full year guidance despite market fears in what Jarden considers a good result.

The update also saw the company lift its long-run capital expenditure guidance to 4-5% of revenue from a previous 3-4%, although Jarden noted it is unclear if this increase refers to growth expenditure or simply stay-in-business costs.

The broker finds Amcor to be handling inflationary and availability issues well, and noted free cash flow remains strong at US$1.1bn for the year.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $17.95 from $18.05.

This report was published on May 5, 2022.

Target price is $17.95 Current Price is $18.47 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.34, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 67.46 cents and EPS of 109.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 69.23 cents and EPS of 115.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.7, implying annual growth of 4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUB    AUB GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $19.39

Jarden rates ((AUB)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

AUB Group has acquired wholesale broker Tysers for $880m in a deal Jarden says could yield 30% EPS accretion, including $25m in synergies, and says Tysers is an attractive growth prospect.

The acquisition is the company's first foray into the Lloyds market and the broker expects it will slightly improve AUB's exposure to the global premium rate environment versus the Australian markets. The deal was struck at the lower end of recent acquisition multiples, notes the broker.

EPS forecasts are steady for FY22 before rising 24% for FY23 and 27% for FY24.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight. Target price jumps to $31.70 from $25.15.

This report was published on May 10, 2022.

Target price is $31.70 Current Price is $19.39 Difference: $12.31
If AUB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.76, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 61.10 cents and EPS of 97.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.8, implying annual growth of -1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 67.40 cents and EPS of 107.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.7, implying annual growth of 13.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLX    BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $2.11

Jarden rates ((BLX)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden's AIB Construction Activity Survey suggests 4% growth in new contracts in the six months, vs a -1% decline in the previous survey, and backlogs have extends to 1.5 years from one year, underpinning near-term earnings, says the broker.

The survey also reveals a skew to larger national contractors with turnover in excess of $100m.

Steel product pricing strength proved the standout, Jarden tipping a potential 10% rise in prices.

Project costs jumped 10% but the respondents reported a greater willingness for customers to share the impost compared witht he previous survey. The broker surmises improved profitability for construction companies could erode margins for developers such as Mirvac and labour shortages are also expected to bite.

The survey suggests demand for fibre cement has risen at the expense of brick most likely due to a widening price differential, says the broker.

Jarden says rates remain a risk for the medium term and that rate rises traditionally lead building approvals by three month (the broker is tipping a -15% to -20% fall) and prefers building material companies with potential for market share gain such as James Hardie Industries and Bluescope Steel.

On the distribution front, Jarden notes Total Tools, James Hardie Industries and Beacon Lighting ((BLX)) are all improving penetration but Bunnings remains the clear leader with Metcash the main beneficiary from contract wins.

Overweight rating retained for Beacon Lighting Group. Target price is $2.60, which compares to the last entry in the FNArena database in January of $2.80.

This report was published on May 9, 2022.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.49
If BLX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.10 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.19.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 12.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.36.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $17.57

Jarden rates ((BSL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden's AIB Construction Activity Survey suggests 4% growth in new contracts in the six months, vs a -1% decline in the previous survey, and backlogs have extends to 1.5 years from one year, underpinning near-term earnings, says the broker.

The survey also reveals a skew to larger national contractors with turnover in excess of $100m.

Steel product pricing strength proved the standout, Jarden tipping a potential 10% rise in prices.

Project costs jumped 10% but the respondents reported a greater willingness for customers to share the impost compared witht he previous survey. The broker surmises improved profitability for construction companies could erode margins for developers such as Mirvac ((MGR)) and labour shortages are also expected to bite.

The survey suggests demand for fibre cement has risen at the expense of brick most likely due to a widening price differential, says the broker.

Jarden says rates remain a risk for the medium term and that rate rises traditionally lead building approvals by three month (the broker is tipping a -15% to -20% fall) and prefers building material companies with potential for market share gain such as James Hardie Industries and Bluescope Steel.

On the distribution front, Jarden notes Total Tools, James Hardie Industries and Beacon Lighting are all improving penetration but Bunnings remains the clear leader with Metcash the main beneficiary from contract wins.

Overweight rating retained for BlueScope Steel. Target price is $23, which compares to the last entry in the FNArena database in April of $23.60.

This report was published on May 9, 2022.

Target price is $23.60 Current Price is $17.57 Difference: $6.03
If BSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.63, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 483.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 514.6, implying annual growth of 117.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 484.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 306.8, implying annual growth of -40.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BWX    BWX LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $1.36

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BWX)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

BWX's trading update reveals a revenue miss, higher customer acquisition costs and earnings erosion as cost inflation bites.

Management expects FY23 organic earnings will normalise in FY23.

Cannacord Genuity notes the company is trading at a sharp discount to global peers and, while the broker spies solid value and expects a successful turnaround is in the wings, it takes a cautious stance, noting growing industry uncertainty, negative cash flow and a slow balance sheet.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target price falls to $1.59 from $4.13.

This report was published on May 9, 2022.

Target price is $1.59 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.23
If BWX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.30 cents and EPS of 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of -52.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.10 cents and EPS of 10.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.6, implying annual growth of 55.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((BWX)) as Overweight (2) –

Full year revenue guidance from BWX of $240-250m reflects a -2.4% miss on Jarden's forecast at the midpoint, while full year earnings guidance of $34-37m is a -13.4% miss.

Weakness in the digital segment drove the lower than anticipated revenue, although growth from Sukin as a result from increased shelf space in Woolworths was a positive, while higher labour and marketing costs drove the earnings miss. 

Cost savings are on the cards, with the company flagging $5m in cost savings that can be achieved regardless of ongoing supply chain issues, but more detail on ongoing costs will be disclosed at the investor day.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.98 from $2.74.

This report was published on May 6, 2022.

Target price is $1.98 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.62
If BWX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of -52.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.6, implying annual growth of 55.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAJ    CAPITOL HEALTH LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.33

Shaw and Partners rates ((CAJ)) as Buy (1) –

Capitol Health's March-quarter trading update showed omicron hit revenue, although the company still sharply outpaced competitors based on Medicare data.

All things considered, Shaw and Partners considers the result to be strong and given the healthcare sector's market retreat, retains a Buy rating, advising investors are best to look through to normalisation of trade in FY23, bipartisan support for Medicare/healthcare funding and large covid backlogs.

Earnings (EBITDA) forecasts fall -7%, -6% and -6% in FY22-FY24 to reflect the omicron hit from January.

Target price slips to 46c from 47c.

This report was published on May 10, 2022.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.13
If CAJ meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.50.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.41.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CKF    COLLINS FOODS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $9.78

Wilsons rates ((CKF)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons notes the recent result from US-listed peer Yum! Brands is supportive of the broker’s sales growth expectations for Collins Foods in Australia and suggests upside risk for European forecasts for the 2H.

While management expects some impacts from cost inflation later in FY23, some offsets include price increases and efficiency gains.

The broker makes no changes to earnings forecasts though the target price falls to $13.45 from $15.75 due to a reduction in valuation multiple. The Overweight rating is maintained.

This report was published on May 6, 2022.

Target price is $13.45 Current Price is $9.78 Difference: $3.67
If CKF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.53, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 51.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.9, implying annual growth of 76.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 57.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN    CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC

Coal – Overnight Price: $2.18

Bell Potter rates ((CRN)) as Buy (1) –

Following a quarterly update by Coronado Global Resources, Bell Potter makes no material changes to earnings forecasts and lowers its target slightly to $2.50 from $2.55.

Based on the broker’s metallurgical coal outlook, the company is expected to generate exceptionally strong free cash flows. It’s thought the current record high prices will also assist the funding for capital works at the Curragh mine complex in the Bowen basin in QLD.

Surplus funds are likely to be allocated to shareholders (in the absence of an acquisition or major project development), in the analyst’s opinion. The Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on May 11, 2022.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.32
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 67.32 cents and EPS of 112.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 30.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.42 cents and EPS of 50.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 23.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.8, implying annual growth of -41.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSR    CSR LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $5.17

Jarden rates ((CSR)) as Overweight (2) –

Results for FY22 were stronger than Jarden expected amid a solid outlook for building products. A higher margin is expected to be sustained.

That said, the broker suspects the company's rooftop product may experience market share loss to BlueScoope Steel's ((BSL)) Colorbond, while shortage of labourers/roofers has been an issue.

The contributtion from property is stable and the company continues to optimise its site network. Meanwhile, the aluminium business remains highly hedged. Jarden maintains an Overweight rating and lowers the target to $6.50 from $6.70.

This report was published on May 11, 2022.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.17 Difference: $1.33
If CSR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.29, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 36.60 cents and EPS of 45.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.90 cents and EPS of 44.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.0, implying annual growth of -1.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DEG    DE GREY MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.02

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DEG)) as Buy (1) –

De Grey Mining has completed definition drilling to support a resource update that is expected in the June quarter. Canaccord Genuity notes the focus is now on exploration and discovery drilling, targeting lateral and deep extensions of the Hemi deposits and exploration at Greater Hemi.

Importantly, capital expenditure remains in line with expectations and the broker envisages potential for the pre-feasibility study to deliver a 500,000 ozpa production profile. Speculative Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $2.15 from $2.10.

This report was published on May 4, 2022.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $1.13
If DEG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EHE    ESTIA HEALTH LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $2.20

Moelis rates ((EHE)) as Buy (1) –

Estia Health's trading update shows that $20.3m of claims for covid costs for the nine months March 31 are unlikely to be reimbursed in FY22, and reports a slight dip in occupancy in the four months to April.

Moelis cuts FY22 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts to $44m from $79m, most of the difference of which should be carried over into FY23 earnings.

But the broker believes the company is likely to rebound once covid conditions normalise and should benefit from the impending period of structural reform and associated additional government funding.

Buy rating retained Target price is $2.56.

This report was published on May 10, 2022.

Target price is $2.56 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.36
If EHE meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting upside of 4.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of -0.60 cents and EPS of minus 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is – 0.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 61.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.5, implying annual growth of -78.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 440.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.60 cents and EPS of 14.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 2900.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT    FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $19.97

Jarden rates ((FLT)) as Neutral (3) –

While an acceleration in Corporate drove Flight Centre Travel into a cashflow positive and earnings positive position in March, the company's full year net loss guidance of between -$195m and -$225m was a miss on Jarden's expectations given larger January losses.

While the Corporate segment has reached 76% of pre-covid total transaction value, revenue margins remain below covid given the current corporate-leisure mix. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $21.50 from $22.90.

This report was published on May 16, 2022.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $19.97 Difference: $1.53
If FLT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.24, suggesting downside of -8.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 162.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -135.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 30.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 66.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNC    GRAINCORP LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $10.09

Bell Potter rates ((GNC)) as Hold (3) –

GrainCorp's first half net profit was less than expected yet FY22 EBITDA guidance has been retained at $590-670m and net profit at $310-370m.

Bell Potter adjusts forecasts to reflect a 2022-23 crop that is similar to 2020-21 levels. Planting conditions on the east coast are favourable amidst uncertainty in growing regions such as the US and Mediterranean.

Hold rating maintained. Target is lifted to $9.90 from $8.65 to include a 10% seasonal premium.

This report was published on May 11, 2022.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $10.09 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If GNC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.23, suggesting upside of 1.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 160.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.7, implying annual growth of 158.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 98.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.8, implying annual growth of -39.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GT1    GREEN TECHNOLOGY METALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.79

Bell Potter rates ((GT1)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Bell Potter explains US-based Lithium Americas Corp wants exposure to an additional upstream lithium project and the opportunity to leverage its downstream processing capabilities. As a result the company has taken a $14m placement in Green Technology Metals. 

Another $41m was placed by Green Technology Metals in a separate tranche and the company will use the combined $55m to continue exploration across its Ontario-based lithium projects. A feasibility study will also be funded for the Seymour project in Ontario.

The Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price slips to $1.37 from $1.39.

This report was published on May 11, 2022.

Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.58
If GT1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 60.77.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 41.58.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IDX    INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $3.73

Jarden rates ((IDX)) as Overweight (2) –

The company has acquired Exact Radiology for $39.4m. The business in south-east Queensland is being acquired on a 7.5x EV/EBITDA, which Jarden believes is reasonable relative to historical transactions.

The acquisition also justifies the $90m capital raising announced at the time of the Peloton transaction. The broker upgrades FY23-25 earnings estimates by around 4%.

The Overweight rating is maintained. Target is raised to $5.13 from $4.94.

This report was published on May 11, 2022.

Target price is $5.13 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $1.4
If IDX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 18.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 14.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of -10.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.10 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 47.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IEL    IDP EDUCATION LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $23.21

Jarden rates ((IEL)) as Overweight (2) –

In addition to the recent 5% increase in test pricing by IDP Education’s Indian IELTS operations, Jarden expects 3-5% price appreciation across the company’s network in FY23. 

Regarding student placements, the analyst believes the company is well positioned to experience price leverage following ongoing strong volumes and demand from UK and Canada.

Despite the company’s ability to raise pricing, the broker lowers its earnings margin assumptions due to the continued investment required to grow market share, as well as higher wage inflation.

The target price falls to $31.17 from $33.24, while the Overweight rating is unchanged.

This report was published on May 11, 2022.

Target price is $31.17 Current Price is $23.21 Difference: $7.96
If IEL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $35.50, suggesting upside of 53.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 36.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 64.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of 168.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 60.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 57.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.3, implying annual growth of 62.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHG    JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $39.00

Jarden rates ((JHG)) as Underweight (4) –

A -$24m net profit shortfall saw earnings per share from Janus Henderson's first quarter missed Jarden's forecasts by -13%, with the miss attributed to weaker revenues and investment losses on seed assets. 

The company now faces a challenging flow and revenue outlook, noting known redemptions of $9m will impact in the year, while performance fees look to be negative for the full year. Jarden also notes the start of a new CEO could signal changes in strategy.

The broker downgrades earnings per share estimates -14.3%, -7.6% and -7.6% through to FY24.

The Underweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $38.05 from $41.15.

This report was published on May 5, 2022.

Target price is $38.05 Current Price is $39.00 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If JHG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $47.75, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 212.59 cents and EPS of 382.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 506.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 228.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 212.59 cents and EPS of 410.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 525.2, implying annual growth of 3.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 280.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX    JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $38.85

Jarden rates ((JHX)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden's AIB Construction Activity Survey suggests 4% growth in new contracts in the six months, vs a forecast -1% decline in the previous survey, and backlogs have extends to 1.5 years from one year, underpinning near-term earnings, says the broker.

The survey also reveals a skew to larger national contractors with turnover in excess of $100m.

Steel product pricing strength proved the standout, Jarden tipping a potential 10% rise in prices.

Project costs jumped -10% but the respondents reported a greater willingness for customers to share the impost compared with the previous survey. The broker surmises improved profitability for construction companies could erode margins for developers such as Mirvac and labour shortages are also expected to bite.

The survey suggests demand for fibre cement has risen at the expense of brick most likely due to a widening price differential, says the broker.

Jarden says rates remain a risk for the medium term and that rate rises traditionally lead building approvals by three month (the broker is tipping a -15% to -20% fall) and prefers building material companies with potential for market share gain such as James Hardie Industries and Bluescope Steel.

On the distribution front, Jarden notes Total Tools, James Hardie Industries and Beacon Lighting ((BLX)) are all improving penetration but Bunning remains the clear leader with Metcash the main beneficiary from contract wins.

Overweight rating retained for James Hardie Industries, saying the survey has positive implications for the company. Target price is $54.70, which compares to the last entry in the FNArena database in January of $54.80.

This report was published on May 9, 2022.

Target price is $54.70 Current Price is $38.85 Difference: $15.85
If JHX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $54.44, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 115.56 cents and EPS of 188.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 201.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 153.18 cents and EPS of 189.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 249.0, implying annual growth of 23.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 152.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LIC    LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $14.27

Goldman Sachs rates ((LIC)) as Buy (1) –

In line with Goldman Sachs forecasts, Lifestyle Communities has reaffirmed its longer term guidance to deliver 1,100 to 1,300 new home settlements and 450 to 550 resale settlements between FY22 to FY24.

The broker is confident these targets will be attained given an ongoing ability by management to secure appropriate land and approvals, and to manage its supply chain across the construction industry. The latter has been achieved via favourable arrangements with builders.

In the near term the analyst believes potential modest house price declines will be offset by a favourable pipeline and inventory position, along with appealing value for incoming home owners.

The target price rises to $24.65 from $24.50 and the Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on May 11, 2022.

Target price is $24.65 Current Price is $14.27 Difference: $10.38
If LIC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 55.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.76.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.40 cents and EPS of 60.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.67.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV    LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $15.81

Jarden rates ((LOV)) as Overweight (2) –

Lovisa Holdings' second half trading update demonstrated sales momentum remained strong through to the end of April, and Jarden anticipates strong sales recovery and international store rollout to remain significant tailwinds for the company over the medium-term.

Labour shortages and logistics continue to impact on store rollout, particularly in the US, with just 17 new stores in the four months to April compared to Jarden's expected 60 in the half. The slower rollout sees the broker reduce revenue forecasts -2% and -4% for FY22 and FY23.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $18.32 from $19.54.

This report was published on May 6, 2022.

Target price is $18.32 Current Price is $15.81 Difference: $2.51
If LOV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.17, suggesting upside of 40.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 49.50 cents and EPS of 41.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.2, implying annual growth of 113.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 49.40 cents and EPS of 61.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.2, implying annual growth of 28.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAP    MICROBA LIFE SCIENCES LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.32

Bell Potter rates ((MAP)) as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) –

Bell Potter notes the company has raised $30m in its IPO, listing on April 5 2022. The company offers gut microbiome testing, a field that has gained traction over the past several years.

The broker has high hopes for the business and looks forward to encouraging clinical data and a good partnership deal with big pharma. Coverage is initiated with a Speculative Hold and target of $0.40.

This report was published on May 11, 2022.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.08
If MAP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MCP    MCPHERSON'S LIMITED

Health & Nutrition – Overnight Price: $0.84

Moelis rates ((MCP)) as Reinstate Coverage with Hold (3) –

First half results were in line with expectations. EBITDA margins compressed to 9.2%, largely because of higher costs. FY22 guidance has been reaffirmed for sales growth of 6-8%.

The company has also announced a strategic alliance with Chemist Warehouse where it will become an exclusive distributor for that company's private label brands in Australasia for up to 20 years. In return, Chemist Warehouse will take on board Fusion and other MacPherson's-owned brands, initially for five years.

Moelis reinstates coverage with a Hold rating and $0.94 target.

This report was published on May 11, 2022.

Target price is $0.94 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.1
If MCP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.24.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.10 cents and EPS of 6.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.73.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFG    MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $15.23

Jarden rates ((MFG)) as Underweight (4) –

Magellan Financial has sold it 11.6% stake in Guzman & Gomez for $140m, locking in a 36% return, but Jarden feels the sale was premature and that the company could have gained an extra 18% each year for the next five years had it held.

No competitive bid was conducted. The broker expects the proceeds could be used to fund an online buyback of 10m shares to avoid the prospect of selling down the company's direct investments.

FY22 EPS forecasts rise 7.2% to account for the sale and includes higher dividend income from financial assets.

Underweight rating retained given fund underperformance and continued fund outflows. Target price rises to $12.70 from $12.55.

This report was published on May 10, 2022.

Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $15.23 Difference: minus $2.53 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting downside of -10.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 122.20 cents and EPS of 232.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 218.0, implying annual growth of 50.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 189.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 12.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 96.10 cents and EPS of 138.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.1, implying annual growth of -34.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 125.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR    MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $2.22

Jarden rates ((MGR)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden's AIB Construction Activity Survey suggests 4% growth in new contracts in the six months, vs a -1% decline in the previous survey, and backlogs have extends to 1.5 years from one year, underpinning near-term earnings, says the broker.

The survey also reveals a skew to larger national contractors with turnover in excess of $100m.

Steel product pricing strength proved the standout, Jarden tipping a potential 10% rise in prices.

Project costs jumped 10% but the respondents reported a greater willingness for customers to share the impost compared witht he previous survey. The broker surmises improved profitability for construction companies could erode margins for developers such as Mirvac Group and labour shortages are also expected to bite.

The survey suggests demand for fibre cement has risen at the expense of brick most likely due to a widening price differential, says the broker.

Jarden says rates remain a risk for the medium term and that rate rises traditionally lead building approvals by three month (the broker is tipping a -15% to -20% fall) and prefers building material companies with potential for market share gain such as James Hardie Industries and Bluescope Steel.

On the distribution front, Jarden notes Total Tools, James Hardie Industries and Beacon Lighting are all improving penetration but Bunnings remains the clear leader with Metcash the main beneficiary from contract wins.

Underweight rating retained for Mirvac Group is retained. Target price is steady at $2.80.

This report was published on May 9, 2022.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.58
If MGR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting upside of 28.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.1, implying annual growth of -38.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of 7.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS    METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $4.63

Jarden rates ((MTS)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden's AIB Construction Activity Survey suggests 4% growth in new contracts in the six months, vs a -1% decline in the previous survey, and backlogs have extends to 1.5 years from one year, underpinning near-term earnings, says the broker.

The survey also reveals a skew to larger national contractors with turnover in excess of $100m.

Steel product pricing strength proved the standout, Jarden tipping a potential 10% rise in prices.

Project costs jumped 10% but the respondents reported a greater willingness for customers to share the impost compared witht he previous survey. The broker surmises improved profitability for construction companies could erode margins for developers such as Mirvac and labour shortages are also expected to bite.

The survey suggests demand for fibre cement has risen at the expense of brick most likely due to a widening price differential, says the broker.

Jarden says rates remain a risk for the medium term and that rate rises traditionally lead building approvals by three month (the broker is tipping a -15% to -20% fall) and prefers building material companies with potential for market share gain such as James Hardie Industries and Bluescope Steel.

On the distribution front, Jarden notes Total Tools, James Hardie Industries and Beacon Lighting are all improving penetration but Bunnings remains the clear leader with Metcash the main beneficiary from contract wins.

Buy rating retained for Metcash. Target price is steady at $4.80.

This report was published on May 9, 2022.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.63 Difference: $0.17
If MTS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 29.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 21.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB    NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $31.32

Jarden rates ((NAB)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden  has described National Australia Bank's first half result as strong, noting cash profit was ahead of expectations and the bank continues to execute strongly on volumes and margins.

The broker highlighted higher inflation and the current rate environment saw net interest margins and costs move higher in the period, but noted underlying margins were flat in the second quarter which could indicate a move past the margins trough.

The bank looks to find a better balance between growth opportunity and cost management, seeing full year cost guidance increase 2-3%. NAB remains Jarden's key pick in Australian banking.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $33.00 from $32.50.

This report was published on May 6, 2022.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $31.32 Difference: $1.68
If NAB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.42, suggesting upside of 6.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 147.00 cents and EPS of 206.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.8, implying annual growth of 7.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 148.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 157.00 cents and EPS of 221.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 231.5, implying annual growth of 11.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAN    NANOSONICS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $3.75

Bell Potter rates ((NAN)) as Hold (3) –

Nanosonics has suffered a significant share price fall since the start of the year, underperforming the ASX200 both as a result of market sentiment to biotechnology asset stocks and from the ceasation of the company's distribution deal with GE Health and a subsequent revenue guidance downgrade.

The transition of GE Healthcare's client base to Nanosonics is expected on July 1, and continues to hang over the stock price.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.95 from $4.70, largely reflecting an adjustment to the valuation of pipeline assets given current market valuations on biotechnology assets.

This report was published on May 13, 2022.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: $0.2
If NAN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting upside of 15.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 535.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 76.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 91.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWL    NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $12.73

Jarden rates ((NWL)) as Neutral (3) –

Full year flow guidance from Netwealth Group declines to $13bn from $13.5bn following weak in flows in April of $790m, below the softer third quarter monthly average of $880m, but Jarden notes a rebound in the stronger months of May and June is anticipated 

The company has issued a 0.15% increase to client cash account fees, enabling it to earn up to 1.2% on cash balances, in a bid to offfset the 0.40% impact of the recent reduction in margin from ANZ Bank to 0.55% from 0.95%. Jarden notes the fee increase boosts profit before tax 5-6%

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $14.45 from $14.15.

This report was published on May 6, 2022.

Target price is $14.45 Current Price is $12.73 Difference: $1.72
If NWL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.03, suggesting upside of 25.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.20 cents and EPS of 23.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 4.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 32.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of 33.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA    ORORA LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $3.83

Jarden rates ((ORA)) as Overweight (2) –

Following the investor briefing, Jarden reviews the outlook and believes, while many may assert the business is ex growth, there are several initiatives being implemented over the next three years which can still drive meaningful upside.

Australasia should experience growth after a number of investments which should meet return targets as they mature. The broker upgrades the target to $4.15 from $3.90, retaining an Overweight rating.

Nevertheless, while remaining positive on the outlook, Jarden acknowledges the business is approaching peak valuations levels relative to the S&P/ASX 200 ex resources, relative to history.

This report was published on May 11, 2022.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.32
If ORA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 3.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 20.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 46.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.70 cents and EPS of 21.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.2, implying annual growth of 8.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PDL    PENDAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $5.10

Jarden rates ((PDL)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden prefers Pendal Group from among the asset managers under its coverage. First half underlying EPS was a 34% beat versus the broker’s forecast and a 22% beat compared to the consensus estimate.

While assisted by slightly stronger revenues and tax benefits, the analyst largely attributes the beat to cost control/deferrals, in a time when peers are struggling to contain cost/income ratios.

The broker assumes the FY22 operating margin will lift by 1.9% versus a previous expectation for a -1.9% contraction.

The target price rises to $6.50 from $6.40 and the Buy rating is retained

This report was published on May 11, 2022.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.10 Difference: $1.4
If PDL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.93, suggesting upside of 16.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 48.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.5, implying annual growth of 1.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.70 cents and EPS of 48.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.1, implying annual growth of -12.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV    PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $23.29

Goldman Sachs rates ((PMV)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs believes the greater retail sector risk comes from softening on-shore demand rather than supply chain risks from China. It's believed most discretionary goods categories in Australia are well stocked or over-stocked.

The broker marks-to market the trading value of Premier Investments' stake in Breville Group ((BRG)) and Myer ((MYR)), which accounts for 50% of the reduction in target price to $22.10 from $24.30. The other 50% relates to adjusted retail multiples. Sell.

This report was published on May 10, 2022.

Target price is $22.10 Current Price is $23.29 Difference: minus $1.19 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.88, suggesting upside of 32.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 140.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.2, implying annual growth of -9.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 123.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 149.3, implying annual growth of -3.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 114.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPH    PUSHPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $1.12

Jarden rates ((PPH)) as Overweight (2) –

FY22 results were in line with expectations. The highlight for Jarden was the strength of cash flow. FY23 revenue growth guidance is 10-15%.

Earnings guidance of US$56-601m appears soft at first glance, yet the broker notes this is driven by higher investment expenditure associated with the Catholic opportunity.

Outlook commentary is considered upbeat while there was no further update on the status of potential suitors.

Jarden reiterates an Overweight rating, noting while the share price has been boosted by unsolicited expressions of interest there is fundamental value at current levels. Target is raised to NZ$1.45 from NZ$1.40.

This report was published on May 11, 2022.

Current Price is $1.12. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.40.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.17.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $12.66

Jarden rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

QBE Insurance has shown strong top line growth in the first quarter, with Jarden noting gross written premium growth of 19% was sizeable compared to the company's guidance for full year growth in the high single digits.

The Crop segment was a driver of the strong result, with Jarden estimating gross written premiums for the segment were up 35-40% on the previous comparable period supported by current elevated commodity prices.

Natural peril costs remain in line with expectations so far, although Jarden notes a $75m loss allowance for the Russia-Ukraine conflict is $25m higher than the broker had previously expected.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $15.70 from $14.55.

This report was published on May 6, 2022.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $12.66 Difference: $3.04
If QBE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.54, suggesting upside of 22.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 66.78 cents and EPS of 89.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 94.03 cents and EPS of 137.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.8, implying annual growth of 50.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 94.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGF    SG FLEET GROUP LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging – Overnight Price: $2.26

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SGF)) as Buy (1) –

Cannacord Genuity conducts a read through from recent peer reporting and slightly lifts its target price for SG Fleet to $3.66 from $3.62.

Eclipx Group's ((ECX)) first-half result revealed continued strength in the used vehicle market, which resulted in a 60% jump in end-of-lease income. Novated earnings eased. Net operating income rose 9%.

The broker says the normalisation of vehicle deliveries is hard to pick but expects challenges will persist into FY23, with high second-hand prices helping offset the hit to profits.

New car sales are holding up well, notes the broker, who remains upbeat overall, expecting SG Fleet will benefit from its scale improvements, the LeasePlan purchase (20% accretive by FY24/25) and normalisation of trading conditions.

Buy rating retained.

This report was published on May 9, 2022.

Target price is $3.66 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $1.4
If SGF meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.83.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.42.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLR    SILVER LAKE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.49

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SLR)) as Buy (1) –

Silver Lake Resources withdrew FY22 guidance at its March-quarter trading update.

Canaccord Genuity doubts the company will report a material miss on previous guidance given peers have only made slight downwards adjustments. 

Sales proved a -5% miss on the broker's estimate and throughput grades fell at Mt Monger due to shutdowns and rising stockpiles.

All-in-sustaining costs were in line and the company holds a very health $287m in cash and bullion.

The broker has high hopes for Deflector and Sugar Zone. Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $2.20 from $2.45.

This report was published on May 10, 2022.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.71
If SLR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.2, implying annual growth of -35.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.5, implying annual growth of 73.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUL    SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $9.96

Jarden rates ((SUL)) as Overweight (2) –

Super Retail March quarter performance was ahead of Jarden's expectations in every division, supported by a record Easter period. The broker noted gross margins were in line with the first quarter and like for like sales were up 4.4%.

The result is particularly strong given the broker's prior expectation of slowing sales in the second half, as well as commentary from the company for anticipated gross margin moderation in the period. The broker's full year earnings per share estimate increases 11%.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $12.00 from $12.40.

This report was published on May 3, 2022.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.96 Difference: $2.04
If SUL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.21, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 99.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.7, implying annual growth of -26.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 92.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.2, implying annual growth of -9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCL    TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $14.09

Jarden rates ((TCL)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) –

Jarden downgrades Transurban Group to Underweight from Neutral after the company's dividend yield spread over the Australian 10-year bond hit a new low.

The broker believes the recovery in traffic has already been priced and expects inflation should support earnings (EBITDA) over FY23.

Target price rises to $13.40 from $13.00 to reflect the rising risk-free rate.

This report was published on May 16, 2022.

Target price is $13.40 Current Price is $14.09 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.71, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 40.80 cents and EPS of 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 180.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 60.80 cents and EPS of 22.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 62.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of 186.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TNE    TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $10.12

Bell Potter rates ((TNE)) as Buy (1) –

In anticipation of 1H results for TechnologyOne due on Tuesday May 24, Bell Potter forecasts software-as-a-service (SaaS) annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth of 38% and total ARR growth of 18%.

While the broker makes no changes to its forecasts, the price target falls by -11% to $12.50 after a valuation refresh for market movements and time creep. The Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on May 11, 2022.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $10.12 Difference: $2.38
If TNE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.83, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.30 cents and EPS of 26.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of 16.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.60 cents and EPS of 30.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of 11.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC    WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks – Overnight Price: $24.38

Goldman Sachs rates ((WBC)) as Neutral (3) –

Westpac's 1H cash earnings were a -1% miss versus Goldman Sachs estimate largely due to lower than expected non interest income.

When this lower income is offset by a better performance for bad and doubtful debts and a bring forward of the timing of interest rate rises, the broker's FY22-24 EPS forecasts fall by -2.6%, -2.3% and -3.1%. The target falls to $27.29 from $28.00.

The interim 2022 dividend of 61cps implies to the analyst a 69% payout ratio of cash earnings. It's noted the dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) will be implemented without a discount. Neutral retained.

This report was published on May 6, 2022.

Target price is $27.29 Current Price is $24.38 Difference: $2.91
If WBC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.49, suggesting upside of 4.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 163.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.2, implying annual growth of 4.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 178.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.2, implying annual growth of 19.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((WBC)) as Neutral (3) –

Westpac's FY22 first-half result outpaced consensus by 5% and Jarden by 1.5% due to lower costs.

Net interest margins rose and management guidance improved thanks to rising rates and stabilising of fixed-loan shares, although the broker doubts cost target guidance of $8bn given recent the recent retreat of other banks from their targets.

FY22 and FY23 EPS rise 2%. Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $24.50 from $24.

This report was published on May 10, 2022.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $24.38 Difference: $0.12
If WBC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.49, suggesting upside of 4.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 123.00 cents and EPS of 146.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.2, implying annual growth of 4.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 130.00 cents and EPS of 186.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.2, implying annual growth of 19.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEBJET LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $5.64

Jarden rates ((WEB)) as Neutral (3) –

With Webjet's FY22 result due on May 19, Jarden takes a more cautious view than previously and assumes higher costs. The target price is lowered to $5.20 from $5.63. 

Recent results from peers suggest to the analyst a slowing of momentum due to omicron. Nonetheless, it’s thought the market will look beyond the FY22 result and concentrate on the timing of a recovery to pre-covid levels. The Neutral rating is unchanged.

This report was published on May 11, 2022.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.64 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If WEB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.12, suggesting upside of 8.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 42.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -13.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 57.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES    WESFARMERS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $49.66

Jarden rates ((WES)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden's AIB Construction Activity Survey suggests 4% growth in new contracts in the six months, vs a -1% decline in the previous survey, and backlogs have extends to 1.5 years from one year, underpinning near-term earnings, says the broker.

The survey also reveals a skew to larger national contractors with turnover in excess of $100m.

Steel product pricing strength proved the standout, Jarden tipping a potential 10% rise in prices.

Project costs jumped 10% but the respondents reported a greater willingness for customers to share the impost compared witht he previous survey. The broker surmises improved profitability for construction companies could erode margins for developers such as Mirvac and labour shortages are also expected to bite.

The survey suggests demand for fibre cement has risen at the expense of brick most likely due to a widening price differential, says the broker.

Jarden says rates remain a risk for the medium term and that rate rises traditionally lead building approvals by three month (the broker is tipping a -15% to -20% fall) and prefers building material companies with potential for market share gain such as James Hardie Industries and Bluescope Steel.

On the distribution front, Jarden notes Total Tools, James Hardie Industries and Beacon Lighting ((BLX)) are all improving penetration but Bunnings remains the clear leader with Metcash the main beneficiary from contract wins.

Jarden says the survey augurs well for Wesfarmers. Target price is $58.90. Overweight retained.

This report was published on May 9, 2022.

Target price is $58.90 Current Price is $49.66 Difference: $9.24
If WES meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $52.77, suggesting upside of 6.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 192.9, implying annual growth of -8.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 211.8, implying annual growth of 9.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 171.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

As part of emerging new trends overseas, The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition also includes providers of sponsored research. Readers should bear in mind, sponsored research, while not necessarily of lower quality, has the embedded complication that the company that is the subject of the research has paid for this research. Providers of sponsored research that can potentially be included in this Report are Breakaway Research, Edison Investment Research, Independent Investment Research, NDF Research, Pitt Street Research, and TMT Analytics.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

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CHARTS

360 5GG ALL AMC AUB BLX BRG BSL BWX CAJ CKF CRN CSR DEG ECX EHE FLT GNC GT1 IDX IEL JHG JHX LIC LOV MAP MCP MFG MGR MTS MYR NAB NAN NWL ORA PDL PMV PPH QBE SGF SLR SUL TCL TNE WBC WEB WES

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 360 - LIFE360 INC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 5GG - PENTANET LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALL - ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMC - AMCOR PLC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AUB - AUB GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BLX - BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED

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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BSL - BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TNE - TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WBC - WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WEB - WEBJET LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WES - WESFARMERS LIMITED