Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 16, 2022

Daily Market Reports | May 16 2022

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AMC   ANZ   ARB   ARX   AUT   BSX   BTH   BWX   CAI   DCN   DDH   DEG   ELO (2)   FLT   FMG   HLO   ING   JBH (2)   JHG   MAQ   MBH   MMM   MZZ   NCK   NTO (2)   PAR   PBH   PWH   QAN   RHC (3)   SGR   SHV (2)   STN   SUL   TIE   TPW   TSI (2)   UBI   WOW  

AMC    AMCOR PLC

Paper & Packaging - Overnight Price: $18.33

Jarden rates ((AMC)) as Buy (1) -

Despite an inflationary environment, Amcor's third quarter earnings per share were a 3% beat to consensus while the company also managed to retain full year guidance despite market fears in what Jarden considers a good result.

The update also saw the company lift its long-run capital expenditure guidance to 4-5% of revenue from a previous 3-4%, although Jarden noted it is unclear if this increase refers to growth expenditure or simply stay-in-business costs.

The broker finds Amcor to be handling inflationary and availability issues well, and noted free cash flow remains strong at US$1.1bn for the year.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $17.95 from $18.05.

This report was published on May 5, 2022.

Target price is $17.95 Current Price is $18.33 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.34, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 67.43 cents and EPS of 108.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 69.20 cents and EPS of 115.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 122.4, implying annual growth of 4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANZ    AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED

Banks - Overnight Price: $25.39

Goldman Sachs rates ((ANZ)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Further to the first half results analysis, Goldman Sachs has revised estimates for FY22-24. Estimates for FY22 have been revised up by 3.1% while the outlying years have been revised down.

The changes are based on a better net interest margin trajectory and lower bad debts, partially offset by higher expenses.

The bank's shelving of cost targets removes the valuation support and as a result the broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to $29.84 from $32.51.

This report was published on May 4, 2022.

Target price is $29.84 Current Price is $25.39 Difference: $4.45
If ANZ meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.56, suggesting upside of 16.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 145.00 cents and EPS of 211.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 206.4, implying annual growth of -4.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 142.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 152.00 cents and EPS of 222.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.3, implying annual growth of 8.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARB    ARB CORPORATION LIMITED

Automobiles & Components - Overnight Price: $31.34

Wilsons rates ((ARB)) as Overweight (1) -

While ARB Corp reported sales growth in the third quarter, with sales of $525m up 18% on the previous comparable period, Wilsons notes despite demand remaining strong the continuation of new vehicle supply challenges and labour constraints will likely impact.

Recent price increases should benefit, and the company is guiding to full year revenue around $700m.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $43.00 from $49.80.

This report was published on May 5, 2022.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $31.34 Difference: $11.66
If ARB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $43.91, suggesting upside of 40.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 160.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.1, implying annual growth of 5.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 143.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.5, implying annual growth of 4.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARX    AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences - Overnight Price: $0.77

Bell Potter rates ((ARX)) as Buy (1) -

Aroa Biosurgery's March-quarter trading update outpaced guidance, thanks to accelerating growth post covid as elective surgeries in the US rebooted.

Bell Potter notes the company is enjoying increased access to US hospitals following the extension of its HealthTrust contract in October and the Myriad Registry clinical validation continues apace.

The broker retains a Speculative Buy rating. Target price cut to $1.45 from $1.70 to reflect the market re-rating of growth stocks.

This report was published on May 3, 2022.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: $0.68
If ARX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 59.23.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 42.78.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUT    AUTECO MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver - Overnight Price: $0.06

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AUT)) as Buy (1) -

Auteco Minerals has increased its resource at Pickle Crow to 2.23m ounces at 7.8g/t gold, ahead of expectations. This new resource estimate marks a 30% increase in total contained ounces in just six months, Canaccord Genuity notes.

Further results are expected in the current quarter from a business that is well funded with $24.5m in cash. Speculative Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $0.26 from $0.25.

This report was published on May 4, 2022.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.2
If AUT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 333% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSX    BLACKSTONE MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements - Overnight Price: $0.28

Shaw and Partners rates ((BSX)) as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners considers the appointment of tier-one engineering contractors to conduct the Definitive Feasibility Study for the Ta Khoa project in Vietnam to be a major step towards derisking the project, which is mooted to begin first production in 2025.

The broker believes Blackstone Minerals is committed to producing an ESG-friendly product and recently signed a collaborative partnership with the leader in lithium supply chain tracebility - Circulor - which should help ensure the company continues to attract capital support.

Shaw appreciates the company's net cash position of $49m and recent strategic mine developments.

Buy recommendation and $1.50 target price retained.

This report was published on May 4, 2022.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $1.22
If BSX meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 436% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.47.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.28.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BTH    BIGTINCAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Cloud services - Overnight Price: $0.58

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BTH)) as Buy (1) -

Bigtincan Holdings reiterated full year guidance of annual recurring revenue exceeding $119m and revenue exceeding $109m, which Canaccord Genuity notes suggests slowing recurring revenue growth in the second half, while revenue benefits from a material uplift.

The broker notes second half revenue looks to be around $63m, compared to first half revenue of $46m, and anticipates the company can achieve an 18% compound annual growth rate through to FY24, with modest upside risk if the company reaches growth targets.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.50 from $2.00.

This report was published on April 29, 2022.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.92
If BTH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 159% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.44.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 29.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BWX    BWX LIMITED

Household & Personal Products - Overnight Price: $1.33

Moelis rates ((BWX)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Following significantly weaker than expected FY22 guidance by BWX, Moelis makes EPS downgrades to forecasts for FY22-24 of between -33-36%. The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target price is lowered to $1.69 from $4.36.

The downgrades resulted from weaker than expected revenues from Andalou, Go-To and the digital businesses Nourished Life and Flora & Fauna, explains the analyst. Also, costs were higher than expected.

The broker assumes cost pressures persist into FY23, which should partially offsetting any margin improvement from the transition to a new facility. Management has implemented price increases to offset cost inflation and is targeting -$5m in cost savings for  FY23.

This report was published on May 6, 2022.

Target price is $1.69 Current Price is $1.33 Difference: $0.36
If BWX meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 100.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of -52.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.20 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.6, implying annual growth of 55.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


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