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Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Apr 06, 2022

Daily Market Reports | Apr 06 2022

This story features ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANZ

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ANZ   CGC   CTD   DHG (2)   HLO   PPT   SHA   SM1 (2)   WEB  

ANZ    AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $27.04

Bell Potter rates ((ANZ)) as Buy (1) –

Ahead of the release of ANZ Bank's first half results, Bell Potter is predicting the bank will report cash net profit of $2.84bn, down -5% and -11% from the first and second halves of the last financial year respectively, and expects profit is unlikely to improve this year.

The broker acknowledges the poor outlook is largely driven by a lower net interest margin. Bell Potter also predicts a 71c per share interim dividend to be announced. 

The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $29.00 from $28.00.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $27.04 Difference: $1.96
If ANZ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.05, suggesting upside of 11.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 144.00 cents and EPS of 226.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.8, implying annual growth of -5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 145.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 156.00 cents and EPS of 233.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.0, implying annual growth of 10.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 157.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGC    COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $3.20

Jarden rates ((CGC)) as Buy (2) –

The outlook for Costa Group continues to improve according to Jarden, noting domestic prices continue to trend upwards, up an average of 12% on the first half across the five categories tracked by the broker. 

Further, the expanded Guyra facilities, including a 2.5 hectare nursery and 10 hectare glasshouse, offer further yield and mix upside than Jarden had expected, with the glasshouse offering a 33% production time increase alongside strong sustainability credentials.

The broker maintains a forecast 38% net profit increase in FY22, 16% ahead of consensus forecasts.

The Overweight rating and target price of $3.70 are retained.

This report was published on March 30, 2022.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.5
If CGC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 13.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of 62.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 20.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 26.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTD    CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $23.85

Jarden rates ((CTD)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –

Jarden initiates coverage on the travel management sector, including Corporate Travel Management, as recovery post-covid ramps up. The broker prefers companies with high corporate travel exposure over leisure, predicting less volatile recovery in corporate travel. 

The broker noted the Australian Federation of Travel Agents has predicted the coming six months will be the most challenging for the industry, as agents work to process the estimated $6bn in unused travel credits but gaining little in the way of revenue. 

For Jarden, Corporate Travel Management offers better corporate travel exposure, while acquisitions could drive further upside.

Corporate Travel Management is Jarden's preferred travel agent pick. The broker initiates with an Overweight rating and a target price of $26.18.

This report was published on March 30, 2022.

Target price is $26.18 Current Price is $23.85 Difference: $2.33
If CTD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.05, suggesting upside of 17.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 11.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 202.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 97.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 78.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.2, implying annual growth of 282.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DHG    DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $3.96

Goldman Sachs rates ((DHG)) as Neutral (3) –

Domain Australia is of the intent to acquire Realbase, a campaign management technology platform for $180m plus an additional $50m potential earn-out.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs explain the proposed price implies 20.5x forecast FY22 EV/EBITDA. The deal is expected to close in late April.

The broker sees numerous benefits from the deal, including additional depth penetration and strengthening of the one portal model. The Q3 trading update proved in-line with expectations.

The Neutral rating is retained, as well as the target price of $5.10. 

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $1.14
If DHG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting upside of 28.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of 61.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of 27.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((DHG)) as Buy (2) –

Domain Holdings Australia's has announced a capital raising to pay for the acquisition of Realbase, a real estate campaign management tech platform, for $180m (with potentially an aditional $50m later on).

Realbase, explains Jarden, is the largest of its kind in the A&NZ region. Dubbed a 'PropTech' company by the broker, Realbase allows agents to construct, price, order and track the property campaign marketing products of a piece of real estate.

The broker has assumed 15-16% revenue and EBITDA growth in FY23 from the acquisition, which is below historical metrics but in-line with the view the property sector is facing moderation in growth.

Jarden sticks with its Overweight rating, noting management at the company has stuck with its prior cost guidance. Target price eases to $4.80 from $4.90

This report was published on April 5, 2022.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.84
If DHG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.09, suggesting upside of 28.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 9.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of 61.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of 27.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLO    HELLOWORLD TRAVEL LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $2.45

Jarden rates ((HLO)) as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) –

Jarden initiates coverage on the travel management sector, including Helloworld Travel, as recovery post-covid ramps up. The broker prefers companies with high corporate travel exposure over leisure, predicting less volatile recovery in corporate travel. 

The broker noted the Australian Federation of Travel Agents has predicted the coming six months will be the most challenging for the industry, as agents work to process the estimated $6bn in unused travel credits but gaining little in the way of revenue. 

Jarden is cautious on Helloworld Travel's outlook following the divestment of the Corporate division in mid-December, despite share price strength since then. Further, the broker expects Helloworld Travel will be most impacted by reduced commission fees.

The broker initiates with a Neutral rating and a target price of $2.46.

This report was published on March 30, 2022.

Target price is $2.46 Current Price is $2.45 Difference: $0.01
If HLO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of minus 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.92.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of minus 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 136.11.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPT    PERPETUAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $32.38

Bell Potter rates ((PPT)) as Buy (1) –

Updating its coverage on Perpetual, Bell Potter notes the company's strong management team and clear strategic direction sets Perpetual apart from peers, and highlights the company has become more diverse in the last year. 

Acquisitions into Perpetual Private and Perpetual Corporate Trust in the last year have added revenue or service range to the company. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $42.80 from $44.30.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $42.80 Current Price is $32.38 Difference: $10.42
If PPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $39.61, suggesting upside of 22.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 218.00 cents and EPS of 266.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 267.1, implying annual growth of 97.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 210.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 225.00 cents and EPS of 273.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 285.6, implying annual growth of 6.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 220.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHA    SHAPE AUSTRALIA CORPORATION LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $2.16

Moelis rates ((SHA)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis only initiated coverage on commercial fit-out specialist Shape Australia last month. This week the company announced the acquisition of Victoria-based modular construction business, KLMSA, for $10.7m.

KLMSA provides modern, modular building solutions for schools, early learning centres, government service buildings and multi-purpose sports pavilions.

Moelis argues the acquisition will enhance Shape Australia's offering and expertise. A strong balance sheet effectively implies more M&A might be on the horizon, suggests the broker.

Moelis has made small increases to forecasts while retaining its Buy rating and a target price of $2.49. 

This report was published on April 5, 2022.

Target price is $2.49 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.33
If SHA meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.43.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SM1    SYNLAIT MILK LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $3.07

Bell Potter rates ((SM1)) as Buy (1) –

Synlait Milk's first half profit result of NZ$27.9m was ahead of Bell Potter's expectations, but the broker notes the result was helped by a lower tax rate. The broker highlighted 19% year-on-year revenue growth and 43% year-on-year earnings growth.

The company continues to guide to a return to "robust profitability" in the current financial year, although second half results are expected to be lower than the first half results. 

Bell Potter has downgraded earnings forecasts -11% and -3% in FY22 and FY23 respectively. The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.00 from $4.40.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $0.93
If SM1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.02.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.71.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((SM1)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden believes Synlait Milk released a strong interim result, in particular pointing at the flagged sell down of excess inventories which generated strong cashflows and allowed for debt reduction.

The company's guidance for FY22 has broadly remained unchanged, but the broker seems pleased regardless.

Jarden sees the H1 performance as the first step towards better times ahead for Synlait Milk, but also finds it too early yet to adopt a positive view.

Hence, Neutral rating remains unchanged, while the target remains NZ$3.60. Forecasts have been slightly reduced, also to account for increased capex.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Current Price is $3.07. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.57.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.93.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEBJET LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $5.51

Jarden rates ((WEB)) as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) –

Jarden initiates coverage on the travel management sector, including Webjet, as recovery post-covid ramps up. The broker prefers companies with high corporate travel exposure over leisure, predicting less volatile recovery in corporate travel. 

The broker noted the Australian Federation of Travel Agents has predicted the coming six months will be the most challenging for the industry, as agents work to process the estimated $6bn in unused travel credits but gaining little in the way of revenue. 

Jarden notes Webjet has outperformed since the start of the year, and expects the company's WebBeds channel will rebound to pre-covid levels faster than the rest of the business. 

The broker initiates with a Neutral rating and a target price of $5.63.

This report was published on March 30, 2022.

Target price is $5.63 Current Price is $5.51 Difference: $0.12
If WEB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.17, suggesting upside of 12.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of minus 10.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 51.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -12.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 13.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

As part of emerging new trends overseas, The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition also includes providers of sponsored research. Readers should bear in mind, sponsored research, while not necessarily of lower quality, has the embedded complication that the company that is the subject of the research has paid for this research. Providers of sponsored research that can potentially be included in this Report are Breakaway Research, Edison Investment Research, Independent Investment Research, NDF Research, Pitt Street Research, and TMT Analytics.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

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CHARTS

ANZ CGC CTD DHG HLO PPT SHA SM1 WEB

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANZ - ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CGC - COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CTD - CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DHG - DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HLO - HELLOWORLD TRAVEL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PPT - PERPETUAL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SHA - SHAPE AUSTRALIA CORPORATION LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SM1 - SYNLAIT MILK LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WEB - WEBJET LIMITED