Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 28, 2022

This story features ATLAS ARTERIA, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALX

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALX   CGC   FPH (2)   JBH   KMD   NEC   PMV   TLX   UWL (2)  

ALX    ATLAS ARTERIA

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $6.66

Jarden rates ((ALX)) as Buy (2) –

Jarden has reduced its Atlas Arteria FY22-23 distribution forecasts by -6.7% and -3.0% to account for the devaluation of the EUR against the AUD. The broker believes higher oil prices will not have too much impact on APRR traffic volumes, but a weaker eurozone GDP might.

Jarden nevertheless continues to prefer Atlas Arteria in the transport infrastructure space given its high dividend yield, potential for growth via acquisitions at APRR and a possible change in regulatory structure at Dulles Greenway, which could enhance shareholder value.

Overweight and $7.20 target retained.

This report was published on March 28, 2022.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $0.54
If ALX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.78, suggesting upside of 2.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 37.30 cents and EPS of 39.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.0, implying annual growth of 204.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 49.60 cents and EPS of 48.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.0, implying annual growth of 9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGC    COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $3.07

Wilsons rates ((CGC)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

Industry feedback suggests trading conditions are generally positive, which lifts Wilsons' confidence in the near-term earnings outlook for Costa Group.

The broker's earnings expectations assume significant further improvement in 2022, led by a recovery in table grapes, strong international earnings, and generally favourable domestic pricing.

As the stock is trading at the bottom end of its historical PE range, the broker sees an attractive entry point. Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight. Target rises to $3.66 from $3.60.

This report was published on March 28, 2022.

Target price is $3.66 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $0.59
If CGC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 14.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.10 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of 62.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.90 cents and EPS of 18.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 26.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH    FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $22.82

Jarden rates ((FPH)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Weaker than expected hospital consumables sales in the second half has seen Fisher & Paykel Healthcare downgrade full year revenue guidance to NZ$1.68-1.70bn. Jarden anticipates earnings normalisation over the coming 18 months, and expects the share price to suffer as this plays out.

While decreasing covid hospitalisations and a mild northern hemisphere flu season look to impact near-term, the company reiterated it is well placed to improve respiratory patient outcomes long term. Jarden feels normalisation risk is considered in the current share price.

The rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral and the target price decreases to NZ$30.00 from NZ$34.00.

This report was published on March 23, 2022.

Current Price is $22.82. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $27.00, suggesting upside of 22.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 37.69 cents and EPS of 60.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 39.58 cents and EPS of 50.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.8, implying annual growth of -20.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.5.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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JP Morgan rates ((FPH)) as Neutral (3) –

After a trading update by Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, JP Morgan attributes a weaker finish to FY22 to a rapid drop in covid cases and lower severity of those cases.

With the share price just shy of the broker's new target price of NZ$27, down from NZ$32, the Neutral rating is maintained given the business is entering an uncertain period.

Nonetheless, the analyst highlights a large recurring revenue opportunity from an installed base is nearly twice the size it was prior to the pandemic.

This report was published on March 24, 2022.

Current Price is $22.82. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $27.00, suggesting upside of 22.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 34.40 cents and EPS of 60.31 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 35.81 cents and EPS of 52.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.8, implying annual growth of -20.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.5.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH    JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $54.78

Goldman Sachs rates ((JBH)) as Neutral (3) –

Underlying sales growth for JB Hi-Fi continues post-omicron, with Goldman Sachs noting a re-acceleration since January. The company reported comparable sales growth of 10.5% and 5.1% respectively for JBH Australia and The Good Guys.

Given electronic and home appliance sales have stayed strong for longer than expected, Goldman Sachs expects household categories may sustain elevated levels longer than other retail segments, but continues to expect the housing cycle to soften into FY23.

 Neutral rating retained and the target price increases to $52.00 from $49.80.

This report was published on March 24, 2022.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $54.78 Difference: minus $2.78 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $57.65, suggesting upside of 6.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 384.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 415.6, implying annual growth of -5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 270.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 345.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 374.5, implying annual growth of -9.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 241.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD    KMD BRANDS LIMITED

Sports & Recreation – Overnight Price: $1.25

Jarden rates ((KMD)) as Buy (1) –

While KMD Brands reported a -79% year-on-year earnings decline in the first half the reported NZ$10.2m was in line with guidance, with Jarden attributing the decline to covid impacts and supply chain issues as well as increased brand investment.

The company closed out the half with net debt of NZ$48.6m, largely attributed to an inventory build to manage supply constraint. Jarden expects the first half will be an inventory high point and that net debt could decrease to NZ$10m by year end.

Earnings per share forecasts decrease by -5.4%, -2.6% and -1.4% through to FY24.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price falls to NZ$1.60 from NZ$1.65.

This report was published on March 23, 2022.

Current Price is $1.25. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting upside of 20.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.65 cents and EPS of 5.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.54 cents and EPS of 10.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.2, implying annual growth of 32.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEC    NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $2.92

Goldman Sachs rates ((NEC)) as Buy (1) –

In a strategy update for its Stan streaming service, Nine Entertainment highlighted the quality of the local content being produced by Stan which Goldman Sachs finds to be a key differentiator in a competitive market.

The update demonstrated Stan original content performed strongly, and despite upfront costs the company believes total cost is lower.

Despite peers launching ad supported models and account sharing fees, Stan does not intend to implement either at this time but waits to see how the market responds to competitors.

The Buy rating and target price of $3.40 are retained.

This report was published on March 24, 2022.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.48
If NEC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 21.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 92.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.3, implying annual growth of 6.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV    PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $28.48

Jarden rates ((PMV)) as Buy (2) –

Premier Investments reported first half profits 3% ahead of Jarden, with a strong net cash position providing opportunity for M&A. Compositionally, Smiggle was softer than expected but Peter Alexander and Portmans were stronger.

The broker sees FY upside through global reopening, back-to-school, the potential to take Peter Alexander international, increased higher-margin online penetration and a better return on invested capital via a smaller and more productive store base.

A lower gross margin expectation for Smiggle from 2023 leads to a target cut to $30.50 from $33.70. Overweight retained.

This report was published on March 28, 2022.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $28.48 Difference: $2.02
If PMV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $31.18, suggesting upside of 7.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 153.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.8, implying annual growth of -10.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 84.00 cents and EPS of 159.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.3, implying annual growth of -2.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLX    TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $4.21

Wilsons rates ((TLX)) as Overweight (1) –

Last week’s FDA approval of Novartis’ radioligand therapy for prostate cancer was expected by Wilsons but its companion diagnostic Locametz was not.

Novartis has the fourth FDA approved agent for prostate cancer imaging and it appears equivalent to Telix Pharmacueticls' ILLUCCIX.

The broker nevertheless maintains a view that ILLUCCIX should capture up to 30% of the US$750M total addressable market. Overweight and $8.50 target retained.

This report was published on March 28, 2022.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $4.29
If TLX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 102% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.99.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 39.72.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UWL    UNITI GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.75

Bell Potter rates ((UWL)) as Buy (1) –

With a first indicative takeover offer for Uniti Group made by Morrison & Co, Bell Potter anticipates a bidding war for the company may be on the cards. The broker does not find Morrison & Co's offer of $4.50 per share to be excessive.

According to the broker recent levels of sector acquisition activity may indicate a potential bidding war, while competing bids between Uniti and Aware Super for Opticomm in 2020 suggest there is an industry super fund with an interest in a key part of Uniti's business.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.00 from $4.50.

This report was published on March 24, 2022.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: $0.25
If UWL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.18.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.45.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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JP Morgan rates ((UWL)) as Overweight (1) –

JP Morgan correctly stated there may be further bids for Uniti Group after HRL Morrison & Co recently made a non-binding proposal for a full takeover at $4.50/share.

Sure enough, Macquarie Group's ((MQG)) Macquarie Asset Management and PSP Investment have stepped in with a $5/share offer, according to media reports.

While the latest bid was probably made during the exclusivity period for HRL Morrison & Co, the broker believes Uniti Group should pay the break fee of $5m to allow competition.

The Overweight rating and $4 target price are maintained.

This report was published on March 24, 2022.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If UWL meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.58.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.67.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

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