Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 20-08-21

This story features BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BLX

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday August 16 to Friday August 20, 2021
Total Upgrades: 14
Total Downgrades: 23
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 53.39%; Hold 38.67%; Sell 7.94%

For the week ending Friday 20 August, there were fourteen upgrades and twenty three downgrades to ASX-listed companies by brokers in the FNArena database.

It was surprising, in such a busy week of the reporting season, there were no material changes to price targets by brokers. There were, however, several companies which received ratings changes from two separate brokers.

Ebos Group and Netwealth Group had twin ratings upgrades while ARB Corp, Aventus Group, Baby Bunting, Brambles and Sims experienced dual downgrades. The reasoning behind these changes is available at the FNArena Corporate Results Monitor. (https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/)

While the link also provides commentary on those companies that experienced material changes to earnings forecasts by brokers last week in the FNArena database, the following paragraphs highlight the largest moves.  

Corporate Travel Management had the largest percentage earnings upgrade last week, after revealing a strong fourth quarter. Credit Suisse can see upside to consensus FY23 earnings, an undemanding valuation, and the likelihood of more M&A, while Ord Minnett forecasts improving margins and efficiency improvements.

Macquarie, the most negative of all seven brokers that cover the stock in the FNArena database, downgraded its rating to Neutral from Outperform due to heightened risk from the delta variant, while also pointing out activity in both North America and Europe picked up in the fourth quarter, with revenue increases of 48% and 84%, respectively. 

Next up was BlueScope Steel. Morgan Stanley noted an in-line FY21 result, a significantly higher dividend and a $500m buyback, but the key surprise was guidance around 50% ahead of consensus expectations. As a result, Macquarie also highlighted a strong upcoming first half and lifted FY22 and FY23 EPS estimates by 28% and 8%.

AGL Energy had the largest percentage earnings downgrades by brokers in the FNArena database last week. As mentioned in last week’s article, FY22 guidance for underlying profit fell -36% short of Morgans’ expectation and Morgan Stanley anticipates near-term underperformance for the stock. Meanwhile, UBS still expects margin compression as east coast gas prices are expected to rise through to FY23-24 as supply tightens.

Coming second on the list for earnings downgrades last week was Star Entertainment Group, though brokers were accentuating the positives. While FY21 results were below UBS forecasts there was continued strength in trading conditions in Queensland, which delivered a record profit. Macquarie maintained its Outperform rating and can envisage a pathway in which leverage drops below 2 times in FY23, allowing dividends to be reinstated.

Total Buy recommendations take up 53.39% of the total, versus 38.67% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 7.94%.

Upgrade

BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED ((BLX)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0

FY21 results demonstrate the significant potential of the company's push into the trade market, Morgans asserts. Net profit was up 69%.

The broker suspects earnings will normalise in FY22, although not as much as consensus assumes, and then resume a positive growth trend in FY23.

Morgans transfers coverage to another analyst and upgrades to Add from Hold. Target is raised to $2.30 from $2.01.

BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Citi upgrades to Buy from Neutral. FY21 results beat estimates yet FY22 production guidance has disappointed the broker.

Citi believes the weakened share price has factored in the lows for FY22 without paying for what are considered quality growth prospects.

The broker reduces the target to $1.27 from $1.36.

See also BPT downgrade.

CARINDALE PROPERTY TRUST ((CDP)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Carindale Property Trust's funds from operations increase beat Ord Minnett by 5.5%, assisted by a -$1m decline in property outgoings in the second half versus the first. Guidance is for a distribution increase in FY22 of at least 9% above FY21.

Carindale’s current share price implies a further -20% write-down in the value of Carindale Shopping Centre. The broker believes this is too negative for a centre that continues to perform well, with sales growth of 7.6% versus FY20 and slightly ahead of pre-covid levels.

To that end the broker upgrades to Buy from Hold. Target rises to $5.20 from $4.80.

DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((DHG)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/3/0

FY21 results were ahead of expectations from a combination of revenue and lower costs. UBS believes aspirations to grow yield by 12% over the medium term are achievable.

Listing volumes for FY22 are considered "virtually impossible" to forecasts at this stage, given the unpredictability of lockdowns and a looming federal election.

Yet the broker takes a more positive view of the medium-term outlook and upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target is raised to $5.70 from $5.20.

EBOS GROUP LIMITED ((EBO)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie and Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Macquarie notes solid FY21 results, which reflected continued momentum in community pharmacy, in turn supporting earnings growth in the short to medium term.

Management provided no specific guidance but expects earnings growth in FY22, with risk caveats related to the pandemic. The broker finds earnings momentum quality supportive and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to NZ$35.49 from NZ$33.70.

Ebos Group posted a strong FY21 result in-line with Morgans forecasts, with the highest recorded return on capital employed (ROCE), reflected by double digit earnings growth. The broker increases its rating to Add from Hold and raises its target to $31.68 from $31.03.

Announcements were made for strategic investments/acquisitions, a pet manufacturing facility and a medical device distributor. No FY22 guidance was provided though management remained positive that growth is expected to continue.

GWA GROUP LIMITED ((GWA)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/2/0

GWA Group’s FY21 result was ahead of Morgans and Bloomberg consensus estimates, with improvement in the balance sheet and strong operating cash flow being key highlights. The broker lifts its rating to Add from Hold and adjusts its target to $3.28 from $3.30.

Despite the result being above expectations, the analyst is more conservative on growth in FY22 due to the uncertainty around lock downs  and timing of a recovery in the higher margin commercial segment. However, the balance of risks is thought to be to the upside.

Management expects continued momentum in detached housing on the back of HomeBuilder and healthy consumer sentiment. Residential/commercial repair and remodel (representing around 61% of revenue) is expected to be stable to slightly positive.

NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform by Credit Suisse and Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Mostly driven by a lower-than-expected revenue margin, Netwealth Group reported FY21 net profit -2% below consensus and -3% below Credit Suisse.

The group guided to FY22 flows of around $10bn, in line with expectations.

The platform operator announced a sizeable step up in expenses in FY22 to maintain its  position of leadership with differentiated tech/offerings, support new services to generate revenue, and allow the business to scale with investment in the underlying technology infrastructure.

Credit Suisse assumes 20-25% cost growth in FY22  with an additional $2m increase in lease expenses, which the broker thinks should allow the group to deliver a 53-54% earnings margin in FY22, broadly stable with second-half FY21 levels.

Credit Suisse updates Netwealth to Outperform from Underperform and the target is lowered to $15.80 from $16.50.

Ord Minnett upgrades it rating to Buy from Hold and lifts its target to $17.50 from $16. While the FY21 result was just below expectations, there's believed to be upside risk to net flow guidance and significant scope for increased organic growth. 

The final dividend of 9.5cps was just below the analyst's 9.9cps forecast, while revenue was up 16.9% over the year though also below forecast. Guidance is for around $10bn of net flows in FY22, which compares to $9.8bn in FY21.

The analyst sees potential for market share gains in a rapidly changing marketplace.

OZ MINERALS LIMITED ((OZL)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/1/1

A larger dividend was the main surprise in the first half results. While it is clear that OZ Minerals expects to unlock value in the Prominent Hill expansion over time, Morgans still finds the project economics underwhelming at face value.

The broker upgrades to Add from Hold as a cooling of macro sentiment and a subdued response to the expansion update could crystallise an opportunity at lower prices. Target ratchets up to $24.45 from $24.44.

PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((PGH)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/1/1

With Pact Group restoring its packaging business, growing volume, and positioning for the future in a sustainable plastic industry based on recycling, Credit Suisse has upgraded the company to Outperform from Neutral and raised the target $4.95 from $3.65.

The broker believes the group's access to capital, large customer base (2,000+), diversified packaging formats and industry-leading output gives it an advantage in securing waste for recycled plastic resin.

Credit Suisse notes while the trading update for first-quarter demand is "good" so far, guidance was for non-prescriptive “earnings resilience”, with first-quarter expecting margin reduction from higher raw material and international freight costs.

Dividend payout ratio to remain at 40% until FY25.

REDBUBBLE LIMITED ((RBL)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0

FY21 results were slightly below forecasts. Morgans decides to take a longer-term view, believing that while the worst may be yet to come, the potential in earnings and growth is strong.

The rating is upgraded to Add from Hold as earnings expectations appear to be re-based. Target is reduced to $4.83 from $4.88.

SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED ((SXL)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/0/1

FY21 results were in line with forecasts. Macquarie notes the costs related to the pandemic have returned in FY22 although the impact will be moderated by a recovery in advertising markets. Earnings are expected to trough in FY22.

The broker considers Southern Cross Media offers a compelling income proposition and a stable exposure to advertising markets through its radio assets. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target is steady at $2.10.

WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES LIMITED ((WAF)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/0/0

West African Resources has announced underground diamond drilling at the M1S mine has found strong gold intersections outside the mine plan, offering early potential for the growth of the mine according to Macquarie.

The company plans to undertake further drilling in the fourth quarter of FY21 and the second quarter of 2022 to deliver resource estimation and mine planning in 2022.

Given recent share price weakness, the rating is upgraded to Outperform and the target price of $1.15 is retained. 

Downgrade

AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED ((ANZ)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Citi downgrades its rating to Sell from Neutral and lowers its target price to $28 from $29.50 in the belief weak core profits are set to
drive future performance.

A sharp plunge in volatility and trading conditions in Markets is set to expose significant weaknesses in second half core profit, explains the analyst. Underlying revenue, ex Markets, has declined sharply in the last year, with elevated Markets revenues mitigating the impact.

Recent peer results suggest a sharp reversal of Markets revenues, and the broker now expect 2H21 core profit to miss consensus estimates by -9%.

ARB CORPORATION LIMITED ((ARB)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie and Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/3/1

Macquarie lauds the record result for FY21, with pre-tax profit up 92%. The broker believes this is a quality business with growth options yet valuation remains stretched.

Demand continues into FY22, underpinning the first half, and the broker expects this should remain elevated into the second half.

Despite revising pre-tax profit estimates to $157m for FY22, Macquarie downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $44.00 from $40.10.

On further assessment of ARB Corp's result (see yesterday's entry), which beat the broker, Ord Minnett has increased its target to $48 from $45. However on recent share price performance, the broker pulls back to Hold from Accumulate.

Ord Minnett expects demand to remain strong in the near term given solid 4WD and SUV demand, reflected in a solid order book, while store network expansion and further penetration into offshore markets also provide upside.

ASX LIMITED ((ASX)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/3/3

FY21 net profit was slightly ahead of UBS forecasts. While ASX has an attractive diversified exchange, it still remains in the investment phase, the broker points out, with elevated costs growth relative to revenue.

As the stock has traded 20% higher since the February results, UBS downgrades to Sell from Neutral. Target is $70.

AVENTUS GROUP ((AVN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS and Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/5/0

FY21 results were in line with forecasts. UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy on valuation grounds following the outperformance versus the A-REIT sector over the last 12 months.

The broker suggests growth in asset values is increasingly being priced into the portfolio. Moreover, there are income headwinds from lockdowns and higher overheads to come in FY22. Target is raised to $3.29 from $3.00.

Aventus Group posted FY21 funds from operations in line with forecast. In the current climate, no FY22 guidance was provided. That said, Macquarie notes that as of this week, 80% of the REIT's stores were trading, with 32% offering click & collect.

The broker believes Aventus' tenant base will be relatively less impacted by rent relief requirements compared to large mall peers, but is not immune, given 11% of tenants have requested rent relief.

The balance sheet stands ready for acquisitions but the problem is a lack of opportunities. With limited valuation support, and risk to discretionary spending, the broker downgrades to Neutral. Target falls to $3.30 from $3.33.

BAPCOR LIMITED ((BAP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 5/2/0

Citi downgrades to Neutral from Buy, envisaging few catalysts over the medium term. The broker assesses increasing risks around disruptions from the pandemic to FY22 while acquisitions appear less likely than previously anticipated.

FY21 results beat estimates and FY22 and FY23 net profit estimates are upgraded by 5% and 6%, respectively. Target is reduced to $8.24 from $9.55 as earnings changes are offset by higher net debt and increased working capital requirements.

BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED ((BBN)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/2/0

In the wake of Baby Buntings' FY21 3% profit beat, Morgans downgrades its rating to Hold from Add on valuation. However, the company is considered very well positioned to further grow market share and compound growth for investors.

The broker highlights strong second half gross margin expansion comfortably offset higher opex. The analyst lowers FY22 and FY23 EPS forecasts by – 2% and reduces the target price to $6 from $6.39.

Mature store level margins now sit at 19% from 17% previously, which provides upside to the long-term group earnings (EBITDA) margin target of 10%, likely now 12%, estimates Morgans.

In the wake of FY21 results, Citi believes long-term growth prospects are still intact. Should the impacts of covid-19 continue for longer than expected, the company is considered better placed than most other listed retailers given the category's non-discretionary nature.

In the short term, the broker sees some headwinds though highlights like-for-like sales have improved into the positive since week four of the new financial year. Also, it's felt the opening of eight stores over FY22 should offset the New Zealand rollout delay.

Citi lowers its target price to $5.90 from $6.22 on forecast earnings changes and downgrades its rating to Neutral from Buy on concern the FY22 multiples don't adequately reflect the risk of covid-19 disruption.

BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Macquarie assesses Beach Energy's FY21 result was ahead of estimates and consensus though FY22 production guidance and outlook comments were disappointing.

Western Flank oil production declined -15-20% per quarter through FY22, which points to a longer production tail for the asset (i.e. lower value), explains the analyst. The broker lowers its rating to Neutral from Outperform.

Macquarie lowers its target price to $1.20 from $1.60 on a more cautious stance on Western Flank oil declines and Otway forward capex. The broker cautions on an upcoming elevated capex period, which carries a greater degree of execution risk.

See also BPT upgrade.

BRAMBLES LIMITED ((BXB)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans and Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Morgans assesses FY21 results were largely in-line with expectations though on a constant FX basis, earnings were slightly ahead of forecasts. After forecasting a low single digit 12-month total shareholder return, the broker downgrades its rating to Hold from Add.

The analyst highlights all regions delivered margin expansion despite cost headwinds, group return on invested capital (ROIC) increased 80 bps to 17.8% and the balance sheet remains healthy. The broker's target price rises to $12.23 from $12.11.

CHEP Americas was the key highlight for the analyst with earnings (EBIT) (constant FX) up 15% on the back of pallets volume growth, increased pricing and surcharges. This more than offsets higher plant and transport costs.

Brambles FY21 result edged out the broker but Morgan Stanley urges caution, noting an imminent capital expenditure step-up and an absence of guidance.

The broker expects the company's September 13 investor day should be telling and in the meantime, cuts the target price to $12.50 from $12.90.

Rating falls from Overweight to Equal Weight. Industry view: In line.

CARSALES.COM LIMITED ((CAR)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Morgans downgrades its rating to Hold from Add, after a strong recent share price run prior to yesterday's FY21 profit release, which came in at the top-end of guidance. Management pointed to a number of product initiatives to drive long-term growth.

The broker makes minor changes to near-term earnings forecasts, though larger changes in the longer term, on increased confidence in the transactional opportunities in all businesses. The price target rises to $24.03 from $20.82.

The analyst points out second half revenue growth bodes well for FY22, with the second half cost base (margins down -350bps on the first half) more reflective of a normalised cost base going forward.

CHORUS LIMITED ((CNU)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 0/1/1

UBS notes the share price has rallied since the draft Commerce Commission regulated asset base review. UBS considers this an overreaction as it appears to be treating Chorus the same as other regulated utilities.

The broker disagrees with that assessment and also believes increased competition from wireless will constrain fibre revenue and long-term distributions. Rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral. Target is steady at NZ$6.30.

CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CTD)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 6/1/0

Corporate Travel Management's FY21 underlying earnings of -$7.3m were in line with Macquarie's expectations, while revenue was ahead of forecast.

Macquarie notes that activity in both North America and Europe picked up in the fourth quarter, reporting revenue increases of 48% and 84% respectively. 

Despite this, due to heightened risk from the delta variant Macquarie reduces confidence in its forecasts. The broker has updated earnings per share forecasts by -14 and -1% for FY22 and FY23 respectively. 

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target price increases to $21.80 from $20.75.

HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT ((HDN)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/0

HomeCo's FY21 result proved broadly in-line with Ord Minnett's expectations. The reaffirmation of FY22 guidance is taken as a positive with the broker pointing out this is the only REIT to provide guidance thus far.

Guidance is for FY22 funds from operations (FFO) and DPS of 8.3cpu and 8.0cpu respectively. The broker highlights the REIT reported a portfolio valuation uplift of $47m in FY21, resulting in the NTA increasing to $1.36/unit (prior to post June 2021 acquisitions).

As the share price has approached the target, Ord Minnett has downgraded to Accumulate from Buy. The target price rises to $1.54 from $1.52.

IMDEX LIMITED ((IMD)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Despite covid-related challenges, Imdex delivered strong FY21 results, beating Macquarie expectations by 16%. Revenue was up 11% to $264m and underlying earnings were up 39% to $75.5m. 

It is Macquarie's view that solid industry demand will continue accelerating into FY22. The broker notes Imdex has also reported a positive start to the new financial year, with strong demand for ImdexHub-IQ connected technologies. 

Macquarie has increased earnings per share forecasts by 17% and 12% for FY22 and FY23 respectively. The rating is downgraded to Neutral and the target price increases to $2.56 from $2.10.

NEWCREST MINING LIMITED ((NCM)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 6/1/0

While FY21 results were ahead of estimates with record underlying net profit, Citi notes guidance for FY22 indicates a softer year ahead. FY22 group production guidance is below 2.0m ounces while Lihir is also below expectations.

Production is nevertheless expected to lift in FY23/24 while upcoming feasibility studies should provide more clarity. Citi downgrades to Neutral from Buy and lowers the target to $27 from $30.

ORORA LIMITED ((ORA)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 0/7/0

Results were "solid" in Citi's view. Yet, going forward, the broker observes less positive news may weigh on the stock. Particularly this involves the need to replace lost glass capacity and tougher North American growth as the business cycles the easy wins.

As the risk/reward is more balanced, the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

The broker also remains cautious about acquisitions, given the focus on adjacencies and new markets which inherently mean a lack of operating experience. Target is raised to $3.26 from $3.20.

SG FLEET GROUP LIMITED ((SGF)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/1/0

SG Fleet Group's full year results were around a -5% miss on Macquarie's expectations. New vehicle supply constraints impacted second-hand vehicle pricing and provided a boost to end-of-lease income. 

However, Macquarie notes pipeline and recovery commentary is positive heading into FY22, with strong FY21 order growth moving a significant pipeline of orders into FY22. It is expected that delivery constraints will continue, causing further lengthening of the order book. 

The rating is downgraded to Neutral and the target price decreases to $2.98 from $3.07.

SIMS LIMITED ((SGM)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Despite a sales miss in FY21, Macquarie notes Sims reported underlying earnings and net profit of $284.1m in line with the broker's expectations. 

A strong outcome from SA Recycling, supported by ANZ and UK Metals, has driven the broker to update earnings per share estimates by 30.8%, 4.4% and -8.0% through to FY24. 

Macquarie expects improving volume trends to continue into FY22.

The rating is downgraded to Neutral and the target price decreases to $18.20 from $19.80.

UBS found operating cash flows underwhelming although believes the company has done a good job of boosting earnings on elevated scrap prices.

There was hope Chinese demand could lead to higher global prices and volumes but the broker does not envisage any meaningful upside for Sims in FY22-FY23 from policy changes.

UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy and reduces the target to $17.30 from $18.00.

VICINITY CENTRES ((VCX)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/5/1

Following a re-basing of earnings and the FY21 result, Macquarie reduces medium-term expectations. In the absence of any evidence of successful execution of the strategy to grow earnings and reposition the business, the broker considers the growth outlook limited.

Moreover, Macquarie is cautious about a rebound in trading associated with a re-opening. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target reduced to $1.66 from $1.70.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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