The Overnight Report: Nothing To See Here

This story features SANTOS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: STO

World Overnight
SPI Overnight (Jun)	7290.00	+ 64.00	0.89%
S&P ASX 200	7308.70	+ 56.50	0.78%
S&P500	4358.69	+ 35.63	0.82%
Nasdaq Comp	14631.95	+ 133.08	0.92%
DJIA	34798.00	+ 286.01	0.83%
S&P500 VIX	17.91	– 1.82	– 9.22%
US 10-year yield	1.28	+ 0.07	5.87%
USD Index	92.79	– 0.18	– 0.19%
FTSE100	6998.28	+ 117.15	1.70%
DAX30	15422.50	+ 206.23	1.36%

By Greg Peel

And We’re Back

The local market did not cop the same level of panic selling as Wall Street did earlier in the week and in fact held up pretty well on the Tuesday following Wall Street’s tumble. But there was no lack of enthusiasm yesterday morning to back the Wall Street bounce.

No chance to get on, however. The ASX200 opened up 70 points in the first ten minutes and ultimately closed lower, having been up 100 points late morning. Another triple-digit case-count in Sydney did not stop the index reaching its peak, but sellers moved in in the afternoon.

The 110 case-count in Sydney has to be put into the context of a record 80,000-plus tests undertaken.

The heavyweight sectors uniformly drove the market higher, with banks and energy up 1.4% and healthcare and materials up 1.2%.

Consumer discretionary actually won the day with a 1.6% gain, despite a preliminary read on June retail sales showing a -1.8% fall. Economists had forecast -0.7%.

As I have noted previously, we’re used to this now in the Days of Covid. The June data caught the start of the lockdowns, and July will be worse, but we’ve had enough lockdowns now to know sales outperform as soon as lockdowns are lifted, affecting little change on a net basis.

Consumer staples, telcos, utilities and property all posted a gain of 0.5-0.8%, leaving the laggards as technology (+0.2%) and industrials (-0.1%).

Technology has really settled down lately compared to the volatile times of the past, largely because that index is now dominated by a BNPL industry that appears to be increasingly risky amidst stiff competition and no barriers to entry.

While retail sales bounce back quickly from lockdowns, toll roads, airlines and airports do not.

Industrials closed lower despite first-cab-off-rank Cimic Group’s ((CIM)) earnings result, which led to a 4.5% gain. Oil Search rose another 3.6% on rumours the bid from Santos ((STO)) has brought Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) into the race, having had a swing and a miss three years ago.

On the subject of takeovers, Altium ((ALU)) was yesterday’s worst index performer, falling -5.0% after suitor Autodesk lost interest.

Yesterday’s afternoon sellers will not be happy Wall Street has kicked on with it again last night and our futures are up 64 points this morning.

The Aussie has come back a bit, iron ore was down -3% but Brent crude was up 5%, so perhaps a mixed day for the resource sectors.

All Clear

Wall Street’s swift as-you-were bounce on Tuesday night alleviated concerns that this time a realistic (and overdue) correction was on the cards. So if it’s not going to correct, then it’s still a raging bull market.

But as was the case in Australia, the bulk of last night’s gains were made from the opening bell. The major indices largely tracked sideways for the rest of the session.

The shake-out has meant that the week’s earnings results are less likely to be met with “sell the fact” as they would be the case were indices still at all-time highs. To that end two big Dow names – Coca-Cola and Verizon — posted positive results last night and were rewarded. Beats to date are running at above 80%, as was that case last quarter.

The S&P500 is nevertheless now within -1% below the last high.

Not so positive was the response to Netflix. It reported in Tuesday night’s aftermarket and despite beating forecasts, new subscription guidance for the September quarter fell well short of expectation. That was worth -3.5% last night.

Clearly, Netflix is never going to see another 2020, even if delta sends the world back into lockdown. The company is facing two issues in 2021 – everyone who wanted a subscription took one up when locked down last year, and last year’s lockdown meant no new content was produced to entice any new subscribers this year.

By contrast, fast food chain Chipotle – another 2020 winner – reported sales in excess of pre-pandemic levels and jumped 12%. One doesn’t subscribe to Chipotle, one just eats the stuff.

FANG is dead. Long live FAAMG.

Apple was the only member of that group not to push ahead last night. Those floods in Zhengzhou? That’s where all the iPhones are made.

In other news, blow me down if all 50 Republican senators didn’t vote against the infrastructure bill put forward by a bipartisan group of House members. Those senators have nonetheless suggested a deal is “close” (they always are), so it was not just a get stuffed Trumpist response.

This bill required 60 senate votes. The other half of Biden’s package, dubbed “human stimulus” as it is largely to do with welfare, is considered a budget measure so needs only a majority vote.

No, I don’t understand either.

Commodities

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz)	1803.30	– 6.60	– 0.36%
Silver (oz)	25.23	+ 0.30	1.20%
Copper (lb)	4.21	– 0.01	– 0.25%
Aluminium (lb)	1.12	+ 0.02	1.65%
Lead (lb)	1.06	+ 0.02	1.98%
Nickel (lb)	8.36	– 0.14	– 1.65%
Zinc (lb)	1.32	– 0.01	– 0.74%
West Texas Crude	70.30	+ 2.88	4.27%
Brent Crude	72.16	+ 3.54	5.16%
Iron Ore (t)	213.60	– 6.45	– 2.93%

Aluminium has recovered some of Tuesday night’s loss and for iron ore, it is often a case these days of two steps forward and one step back. Iron ore’s still trading in a tight range around the US$220/t mark, with demand still outstripping supply, and nothing much Beijing can do about it.

Oil prices were ripe for a bounce-back and last night’s weekly US inventory numbers provided the catalyst. While inventories rose overall, oil stored at Cushing Oklahoma, from which the WTI futures price is derived, is at the lowest level since early 2020.

After crashing all the way down to under US73c this week, the Aussie has rebounded from that intraday low yesterday on US dollar weakness (and likely short-covering) and is up 0.4% over 24 hours at US$0.7359.

Today

The SPI Overnight closed up 64 points or 0.9%.

ABS preliminary numbers for the June trade balance are due today.

The ECB meets tonight.

Japan is closed today.

June quarter production reports are due from Santos ((STO)), Newcrest Mining ((NCM)), Iluka Resources ((ILU)), Galaxy Resources ((GXY)) and Coronado Resources ((CRN)).

Megaport ((MP1)) provides an update.

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
ABP	Abacus Property	Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform	Macquarie
ARF	Arena REIT	Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform	Macquarie
CCP	Credit Corp	Upgrade to Add from Hold	Morgans
COH	Cochlear	Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight	Morgan Stanley
CPU	Computershare	Downgrade to Hold from Add	Morgans
DMP	Domino's Pizza Enterprises	Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral	Macquarie
EVN	Evolution Mining	Upgrade to Neutral from Sell	Citi
		Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform	Credit Suisse
		Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral	Macquarie
HUB	HUB24	Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform	Macquarie
		Downgrade to Hold from Add	Morgans
LNK	Link Administration	Upgrade to Add from Hold	Morgans
MPL	Medibank Private	Downgrade to Hold from Add	Morgans

For more detail go to FNArena's Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's – see disclaimer on the website)

All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts on the website and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms