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Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 09-04-21

Weekly Reports | Apr 12 2021

This story features PUSHPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PPH

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday April 5 to Friday April 9, 2021
Total Upgrades: 2
Total Downgrades: 1
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 54.43%; Hold 38.37%; Sell 7.21%

For the week ending Friday 9 April there were two upgrades and one downgrade to ASX-listed companies by brokers in the FNArena database.

There were no material changes to forecast target prices for the week.

Pushpay Holdings received the largest percentage increase in forecast earnings by brokers last week. Ord Minnett upgraded the rating to Hold from Lighten and lowered the target price to $1.95 from $4.45. While highlighting that a stock sell-down may be over, after several key holders completed transactions, the broker suspects competitor offerings are closing the gap, particularly in the small and medium church segments. However, Ord Minnett notes the company's CCB acquisition adds an important opportunity to capture a larger share of existing and new customer digital spend beyond the giving platform.

A technical glitch has put Crown Resorts atop the table for earnings downgrades, so best to ignore.

The second placed Western Areas released third-quarter preliminary production numbers that either met or exceeded broker forecasts. Reasons for the outperformance included a drawdown in stocks, better grades and an improved performance from the Forrestania project. Of course the prevailing nickel price helps and prompted the analyst to raise earnings forecasts for FY22 and FY23 by 80% and 55%, respectively. 

Total Buy recommendations take up 54.43% of the total, versus 38.37% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 7.21%.

Upgrade

PUSHPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED ((PPH)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/0

Ord Minnett upgrades the rating to Hold from Lighten. The target price is lowered to $1.95 from $4.45 due to caution over one-off benefits of covid-19 and front book growth in FY22 and beyond. New customer acquisition is expected to become more difficult.

The analyst highlights total customers remained flat between FY20 and 1H FY21 and suspects that competitor offerings are closing the
gap, particularly in the small and medium church segments.

One positive is that sell-downs from several key holders have now largely completed removing an overhang of stock, explains the broker.

RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED ((RSG)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/2/0

Macquarie upgrades its rating on Resolute Mining to Neutral from Underperform with the target rising to $0.50 from $0.45.

Resolute Mining's updated life of mine (LOM) plan for the Syama operation shows expected production to be 176kozpa over the next 11 years.

The miner expects production from the Tabakoroni underground mine from 2024-30. Production from the mine is expected to replace oxide production from 2024 onwards and is better than Macquarie expected.

Downgrade

BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED ((BSL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Steel prices across the US and Asia have pushed higher and Citi suspects BlueScope Steel will perform better than guidance in the second half. The broker believes FY22 will shape up as a stellar year for the company.

North Star spreads are now at US$860/t compared with a long-term average of US$317/t.

The short-term outlook for China's steel demand and pricing is also robust and for BlueScope Steel's export pricing the broker estimates a current spot spread on hot rolled coil of $580/t.

Citi increases earnings (EBIT) estimates by 38% for FY22. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target is raised to $21.00 from $19.50.

Total Recommendations
Recommendation Changes

Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

 

Order Company New Rating Old Rating Broker
Upgrade
1 PUSHPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED Neutral Sell Ord Minnett
2 RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED Neutral Sell Macquarie
Downgrade
3 BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED Neutral Buy Citi

Recommendation

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Rating Previous Rating Change Recs
1 TYR TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED 50.0% 33.0% 17.0% 4
2 SGR THE STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED 58.0% 50.0% 8.0% 6
3 IAG INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED 64.0% 57.0% 7.0% 7

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Rating Previous Rating Change Recs
1 BSL BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED 42.0% 58.0% -16.0% 6
2 CWN CROWN RESORTS LIMITED 40.0% 50.0% -10.0% 5
3 PPH PUSHPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED 25.0% 33.0% -8.0% 4
4 WOW WOOLWORTHS LIMITED 58.0% 60.0% -2.0% 6

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs
1 SGR THE STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED 4.165 4.027 3.43% 6
2 TYR TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED 3.875 3.750 3.33% 4
3 BSL BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED 20.532 20.282 1.23% 6
4 CWN CROWN RESORTS LIMITED 11.320 11.183 1.23% 5
5 PPH PUSHPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED 1.950 0.000 0.00% 4

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs
1 IAG INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED 5.393 5.424 -0.57% 7

Earning Forecast

Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs
1 PPH PUSHPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED 3.904 3.561 9.63% 4
2 TYR TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED -3.450 -3.633 5.04% 4
3 SKI SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP 4.548 4.348 4.60% 7
4 IPL INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED 14.773 14.161 4.32% 7
5 RIO RIO TINTO LIMITED 1585.676 1538.907 3.04% 7
6 IGO IGO LIMITED 21.906 21.526 1.77% 5
7 AMP AMP LIMITED 8.586 8.500 1.01% 6
8 NHF NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED 30.086 29.843 0.81% 7
9 S32 SOUTH32 LIMITED 14.266 14.156 0.78% 7
10 ALL ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED 104.643 103.929 0.69% 7

Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers

Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs
1 CWN CROWN RESORTS LIMITED -3.274 1.438 -327.68% 5
2 WSA WESTERN AREAS NL -1.096 -0.667 -64.32% 7
3 NIC NICKEL MINES LIMITED 10.042 10.740 -6.50% 3
4 RRL REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED 34.296 35.296 -2.83% 7
5 APT AFTERPAY LIMITED -16.800 -16.514 -1.73% 7
6 BOQ BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED 59.571 60.414 -1.40% 6
7 IAG INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED 21.100 21.343 -1.14% 7
8 QBE QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED 61.807 62.445 -1.02% 7
9 WBC WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION 173.571 174.971 -0.80% 7
10 RMD RESMED INC 74.047 74.606 -0.75% 7

Technical limitations

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CHARTS

BSL PPH RSG

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BSL - BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PPH - PUSHPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RSG - RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED