The Short Report

This story features NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NEC

Guide:

The Short Report draws upon data provided by the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) to highlight significant weekly moves in short positions registered on stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Short positions in exchange-traded funds (ETF) and non-ordinary shares are not included. Short positions below 5% are not included in the table below but may be noted in the accompanying text if deemed significant.

Please take note of the Important Information provided at the end of this report. Percentage UIKeyInputLeftArrowamounts in this report refer to percentage of ordinary shares on issue.

Stock codes highlighted in green have seen their short positions reduce in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a lower percentage bracket. Stocks highlighted in red have seen their short positions increase in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a higher percentage bracket. Moves in excess of one percentage point or more are discussed in the Movers & Shakers report below.

Summary:

Week ending November 15, 2018

Last week the ASX200 rallied earlier in the week before falling off a cliff once more.

Things were seemingly back to normal last week following a period of dubious ASIC reporting. Indeed to the extent that of the movements below, no change in short position in the 5%-plus shorted group exceeded one percentage point other than that of Nine Entertainment ((NEC)), which fell to 7.2% from 8.6%.

We might note, however, that shorts in Rio Tinto ((RIO)) rose to 3.7% from 2.6% (see top 20 table below) assuming, of course, the ASIC data are accurate. Rio was for quite a while at the bottom of the 5%-plus table, so it’s no real stretch.

Otherwise, we note Greencross ((GXL)), under takeover, has now dropped off the bottom of the table while Domain Group ((DHG)), impacted by merger, has made its debut.

There may be a clue in the Nine and Domain moves. See below. 

Weekly short positions as a percentage of market cap:

10%+

JBH     19.3
SYR    16.4
GXY   15.5
ORE    14.7
ING     13.0
MTS    12.5
BWX   12.3
IVC     11.9
DMP   11.7
MYR   11.0
NXT    10.9
IFL      10.7
CSR    10.0

No changes    

9.0-9.9

GEM, SUL, SDA

In: SDA                     
                                                                                               
8.0-8.9%

HVN, NUF, NWS, NAN, BAL

In: NUF, NAN           Out: SDA, NEC

7.0-7.9%

KDR, PLS, NEC, FLT

In: NEC, PLS             Out: MND

6.0-6.9%

MND, AMC, BOQ, APT, AMP, MSB, BKL, AAC, MLX, GMA, HT1, KAR, CGF

In: MND, APT, KAR, CGF              

5.0-5.9%

A2M, CCP, LYC, SEK, RCR, SIG, BIN, BGA, RWC, CLQ, MOC, PTM, CAB, RSG, IGO, AHG, DHG, SGM, VOC

In: RWC, MOC, DHG, SGM           

Out: APT, KAR, CGF, GXL

                       
Movers & Shakers

The combination of Domain appearing on the 5%-plus table as Nine shorts fall suggests some connection to the Fairfax Media ((FXJ))-Nine Entertainment merger, confirmed this week, given Fairfax is Domain’s majority shareholder and Domain is arguably the real target for Nine in the merger.

The merger will become official by year’s end so in the meantime we might be seeing some sort of arbitrage play among three share prices or an attempt to strip out Domain from the merged entity – various possibilities come to mind other than just a simple naked short on Domain.? 

ASX20 Short Positions (%)

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

The above information is sourced from daily reports published by the Australian Investment & Securities Commission (ASIC) and is provided by FNArena unqualified as a service to subscribers. FNArena would like to make it very clear that immediate assumptions cannot be drawn from the numbers alone.

It is wrong to assume that short percentages published by ASIC simply imply negative market positions held by fund managers or others looking to profit from a fall in respective share prices. While all or part of certain short percentages may indeed imply such, there are also a myriad of other reasons why a short position might be held which does not render that position "naked" given offsetting positions held elsewhere. Whatever balance of percentages truly is a "short" position would suggest there are negative views on a stock held by some in the market and also would suggest that were the news flow on that stock to turn suddenly positive, "short covering" may spark a short, sharp rally in that share price. However short positions held as an offset against another position may prove merely benign.

Often large short positions can be attributable to a listed hybrid security on the same stock where traders look to "strip out" the option value of the hybrid with offsetting listed option and stock positions. Short positions may form part of a short stock portfolio offsetting a long share price index (SPI) futures portfolio – a popular trade which seeks to exploit windows of opportunity when the SPI price trades at an overextended discount to fair value. Short positions may be held as a hedge by a broking house providing dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) underwriting services or other similar services. Short positions will occasionally need to be adopted by market makers in listed equity exchange traded fund products (EFT). All of the above are just some of the reasons why a short position may be held in a stock but can be considered benign in share price direction terms due to offsets.

Market makers in stock and stock index options will also hedge their portfolios using short positions where necessary. These delta hedges often form the other side of a client's long stock-long put option protection trade, or perhaps long stock-short call option ("buy-write") position. In a clear example of how published short percentages can be misleading, an options market maker may hold a short position below the implied delta hedge level and that actually implies a "long" position in that stock.

Another popular trading strategy is that of "pairs trading" in which one stock is held short against a long position in another stock. Such positions look to exploit perceived imbalances in the valuations of two stocks and imply a "net neutral" market position.

Aside from all the above reasons as to why it would be a potential misconception to draw simply conclusions on short percentages, there are even wider issues to consider. ASIC itself will admit that short position data is not an exact science given the onus on market participants to declare to their broker when positions truly are "short". Without any suggestion of deceit, there are always participants who are ignorant of the regulations. Discrepancies can also arise when short positions are held by a large investment banking operation offering multiple stock market services as well as proprietary trading activities. Such activity can introduce the possibility of either non-counting or double-counting when custodians are involved and beneficial ownership issues become unclear.

Finally, a simple fact is that the Australian Securities Exchange also keeps its own register of short positions. The figures provided by ASIC and by the ASX at any point do not necessarily correlate.

FNArena has offered this qualified explanation of the vagaries of short stock positions as a warning to subscribers not to jump to any conclusions or to make investment decisions based solely on these unqualified numbers. FNArena strongly suggests investors seek advice from their stock broker or financial adviser before acting upon any of the information provided herein.

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