Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates AIS as Buy (1) -

After incorporating 1Q results and allowing for a slight delay at Tritton and increased one-off costs at Jaguar, Ord Minnett lowers its FY23 earnings forecast by -16%.

Overall, weaker performances at Tritton and Cracow (covid absenteeism) detracted from a strong performance at Jaguar, summarises the broker.

Despite the lower earnings forecast, Ord Minnett's lower Australian dollar estimate provides more than an offset, and the target rises to 80cps from 70cps. The Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.48
If AIS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

With the recent Federal budget significantly reducing the effectiveness of off-market buybacks, Macquarie assumes Ampol will undertake on-market buybacks and issue special dividends to improve its balance sheet. 

The broker anticipates buybacks of $300m in 2023 and $400m in 2024, which it considers an optimal solution to drive earnings per share and value accretion. Macquarie also expects Ampol will target a top-end dividend payout ratio of 70% moving forward. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $38.75 from $40.00.

Target price is $38.75 Current Price is $27.23 Difference: $11.52
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.90, suggesting upside of 26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMA as Neutral (3) -

Despite challenging conditions continuing into FY23, AMA Group has retained FY23-24 guidance.

A number of headwinds impacted the quarter, UBS notes, including minimal improvement in repair volumes, staff absenteeism and no change to guidance following new pricing agreed with insurance partners.

Neutral and 16c target retained.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: minus $0.085 (current price is over target).
If AMA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse feels shares of ARB Corp are approaching an attractive entry point and expects positive signs will emerge in the 2H of FY23.

While management alluded to a weaker 1Q operating performance at the AGM, some relief was noted on cost growth and from the positive impacts of price rises, explains the analyst.

However, the broker cautions on US sales figures and the potential for reduced consumer activity. FY23-25 EPS forecasts are reduced by -10.5%-19.2% and the target falls to $28.40 from $32.60. Neutral.

Target price is $28.40 Current Price is $29.01 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.01, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Bellevue Gold reported -$37m capital spend in the first quarter, closing out the period with $77m in cash, with cash flow widening Macquarie's FY23 loss expectation -13%. 

The company has completed its accommodation camp, and continues to anticipate first gold in the first half of FY24.

 Macquarie has pushed back its expectations for first gold to the second quarter of FY24 and commercial production to the third quarter, driving a -39% reduction to FY24 earnings per share.

The Outperform rating and target price of $1.20 are retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.46
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BUB as Buy (1) -

Bubs Australia's weaker than expected Sep Q update suggests to Citi earnings growth from key US and China markets may take longer than expected to materialise, for differing reasons.

US revenue in the quarter suggests only 240k tins were sold when the forecast for the first half is 800k tins. However Bubs now has a partnership with Amazon, and merchandising and distribution expansion is driving awareness, the broker notes.

Risk is more to the downside in China given a crowded market and higher costs.

Citi retains Buy, lowering its target to 68c from 84c.

Target price is $0.68 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.305
If BUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CAR as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

A 1Q trading update by Carsales confirmed a downward trend for traffic and lead volumes and Ord Minnett notes the environment for dealers is likely to become more challenging.

The broker increases its rating to Hold from Lighten following a share price fall since August results. To become more constructive the analyst would like to see positive indicators for both consumer confidence and dealership trends. The $20 target is maintained.

Management retains FY23 guidance and expects good growth in adjusted revenue and adjusted operating earnings.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $20.32 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.83, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS believes two key concerns have weighed on Carsales's recent share price performance, being macroeconomic concerns and execution risks associated with the Trader Interactive acquisition.

Yet current trading conditions indicate positive momentum across the company's businesses, and the broker notes Automotive is typically the least cyclical of the online classifieds categories.

UBS  does acknowledge execution risk for Trader Interactive but on share price weakness upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Target unchanged at $24.60.

Target price is $24.60 Current Price is $20.32 Difference: $4.28
If CAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.83, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Largely due to disruption at the Curragh coal mine, explains Credit Suisse, 3Q production and sales were a miss versus consensus forecasts of -16% and -19%, respectively.

These operational numbers were offset by lagged pricing benefits from the 1Q, explains the analyst.

Management lowered 2022 production guidance by around -1Mt to 16.9-17.1Mt and declared an out-of-season special dividend of US13.4cps. The broker expects the dividend bonaza to continue.

The target rises to $2.50 from $2.30. Credit Suisse maintains its Outperform rating with upside deriving from various sources including an ongoing met coal price recovery, a strong balance sheet and a strong US domestic contract in 2023.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: $0.64
If CRN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.44, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Coronado Global Resources' third quarter disappointed Macquarie, with weaker than anticipated production and higher than anticipated costs. 

Full year coal production guidance was downgraded to 16.9-17.1m tonnes from 18.0-19.0m tonnes, and cost guidance lifted to US$81-83 per tonne from US$79-81 on weather and inflationary impacts.

While the production downgrade did not surprise Macquarie, the extent of the downgrade did. The broker has lowered its forecasts accordingly, and reduced production forecasts -5% beyond 2023.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.30 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: $1.44
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.44, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CRN as Neutral (3) -

Coronado Global Resources' Sep Q production and sales were below UBS' forecasts, with guidance revised down at higher mining costs. However Dec Q may see a peak in costs, the broker notes.

The Dec Q will likely feature more rain, but there could be some relief in the March Q as La Nina is expected to ease.

Weighing up lower production and higher costs against higher prices and the special dividend, UBS lowers its target to $1.70 from $1.80 and retains Neutral.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.44, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

In potentially good news for CSL, the immunoglobulin market may be strenthening, according to Morgan Stanley, if competitor results are anything to go by.

Core sales of immunoglobulin increased by 17% for Takeda in the 2Q, with expectations of 10% growth in FY22, along with over 10% growth for plasma collections. Takeda remains bullish on the rollout of more than 25 collection centres in FY22.

The Overweight rating and $327 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $327.00 Current Price is $280.48 Difference: $46.52
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $323.95, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSR as Hold (3) -

With FY23 results due this Friday, Ord Minnett forecasts an underlying 1H net profit of $97m for CSR, up 12% on the same period last year. Building Products sales growth of only 5% is expected.

The broker retains its Hold rating and raises its target to $4.80 from $4.65.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.63 Difference: $0.17
If CSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CXO as Outperform (1) -

Core Lithium has reported recent exploration success at its BP33 asset, which Macquarie expects offers upside to the resource base and mine life. The majority of funds raised in a $100m capital raising program are set to accelerate the exploration program and early works in 2023.

While Core Lithium has offtake agreements in place to cover 80% of Finniss' production, it failed to reach a binding agreement with Tesla before the cut off date to secure the remaining 20%. Macquarie expects this will not impact on production ramp-up.

The Outperform rating and target price of $1.70 are retained.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.315
If CXO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DDR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley remains Overweight-rated on Dicker Data despite indications in 3Q results that growth has been limited by higher costs from investing for the future and supply issues. The latter are expected to unwind and provide a tailwind in 2023.

Despite the higher-than-expected costs, the company is tracking above the broker's 2022 revenue estimate.

The Overweight rating is maintained for Dicker Data. Target is $14. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $10.77 Difference: $3.23
If DDR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DDR as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett highlights Q3 profits for Dicker Data were impacted by rising costs (freight and higher interest rates), while global supply chain pressures continued. More positively, revenues were supported by demand and expanded vendor partnerships.

The broker believes near-term demand remains strong, thanks to ongoing digital transformation projects and the need for hybrid cloud solutions. The order book remains elevated at twice normal levels, points out the analyst.

The Hold rating and $11.50 target are unchanged.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.77 Difference: $0.73
If DDR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DRR as Outperform (1) -

Deterra Royalties' first quarter reported royalty receipts of $50.7m are in line with Macquarie's expectations, although a -24% quarter-on-quarter decline occurred largely on lower iron-ore pricing.

Mining Area C volumes remain strong, although BHP Group ((BHP)) has warned of some natural ore grade variability ahead which should stabilise as mining moves deeper. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $4.60 are retained.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.51
If DRR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EBO as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans raises its rating to Add from Hold after a 1Q trading update by Ebos Group which revealed strong performances for both the Healthcare and Animal Care segments.

The group continues to achieve double-digit revenue growth on FY22 and the broker now has confidence in the short-term outlook.

The analyst increases revenue forecasts by 2.4% across the forecast period though slightly lowers margins in a cautious stance to allow recent acquistions to be fully integrated. The target rises to $36.84 from $36.81.

Target price is $36.84 Current Price is $34.18 Difference: $2.66
If EBO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.45, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EML as Neutral (3) -

The UK regulatory body has raised concerns in relation to EML Payments' UK PFS Card Services business which are similar in nature to those previously raised by the Central Bank of Ireland, UBS notes, for which EML is currently undertaking a remediation program.

In response to these new concerns, EML has agreed to temporarily cease onboarding new customers, agents and distributors.

The company has made some key senior management appointments and are putting more resources into building capability in key areas including governance, risk management and regulatory compliance.

The broker's Neutral rating and $1.15 target are under review.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.745
If EML meets the UBS target it will return approximately 184% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HAS as Outperform (1) -

Hastings Technology Metals has continued to make progress on its rare earth projects in the first quarter, with key process plant equipment orders for both Yangibana and Onslow completed. Drilling results suggest potential resource and reserve upside.

Macquarie notes a $100m institutional raising and a $10m share purchase plan were launched during the quarter, with funds intended to advance Yangibana.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.70 from $6.20.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $2.15
If HAS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

IGO's Sep Q highllight was Greenbushes more than doubling underlying earnings from the June Q, Citi suggests. Net debt reduced by -$137m to $396m.

The broker expects nickel prices to move lower and lithium to track more or less sideways in the near-term.

Target rises to $15.20 from $14.00. With IGO now trading on an FY24 enterprise multiple of 6x, Citi downgrades to Neutral from Buy.

Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $15.29 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse finds the 1Q Cosmos update by IGO disappointing, with capex now almost double prior indications. While guidance will be provided later, it's thought some of this spend may result in lower Life of Mine (LOM) unit costs.

Base metal earnings (EBITDA) were a miss versus forecasts by the broker and consensus of -16% and -7%, respectively. While Nova performed in line, Forrestania costs were much higher than expected.

Lithium earnings were a -6 and -9% miss, respectively, versus the same measures, on lower realised pricing. The target falls to $16.50 from $17.00 and the Outperform rating is unchanged.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.29 Difference: $1.21
If IGO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has described a strong first quarter from IGO, with Greenbushes spodumene production of 361,000 tonnes a quarterly record and 14% above the broker's assumptions and Nova nickel and cobalt 5% and 3% ahead of forecast respectively.

IGO announced a revised development plan for Cosmos, including an expansion of the processing plant to 1.1m tonnes per annum from 0.75m tonnes. The company anticipates first concentrate in the first quarter of FY24.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $20.00 from $21.00.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $15.29 Difference: $4.71
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

Despite lower grades, IGO performed in line with Morgan Stanley's cost estimates in the 1Q.

The Nova nickel-copper-cobalt operations were considered the only bright spot, with the Kwinana ramp-up slower than expected and the performance at Greenbushes disappointing on revenue/tonne and cost of goods sold.

The broker highlights the near-doubling of capex (flagged by management) at the Odysseus underground nickel mine at the Cosmos project.

The Underweight rating and $12.45 target are maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $12.45 Current Price is $15.29 Difference: minus $2.84 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IGO as Lighten (4) -

Stronger lithium prices buoyed IGO's Q1 results, while production and costs were broadly in line, comments Ord Minnett.

The big shock for the analyst was the -$400m capital cost guidance for Western Areas, compared to a forecast for -$40m.

A realised spodumene price of US$3,480/t at Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia contributed to 70% of the company earnings (EBITDA).

After allowing for the result and updated pricing, the broker's target price rises by 25% to $10.50, while the Lighten rating remains.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $15.29 Difference: minus $4.79 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IME as Speculative Buy (1) -

ImExHS is on-track to meet Morgans FY22 forecasts. The company released a 3Q cashflow report which showed a maiden earnings (EBITDA) breakeven period (ex cost-out program and acquisition costs).

The broker makes no changes to its forecasts, $2.03 target price or Speculative Buy rating though sees a major inflection point ahead with monthly cashflow breakeven expected in the 4Q.

Target price is $2.03 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $1.55
If IME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 323% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JDO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses a positive 1Q operational update at Judo Capital's AGM, with gross loans increasing by 12%, and only needing to grow by 9% to meet the broker's 1H estimate.

Management upgraded 1H underlying net interest margin (NIM) guidance to the top-end of the previous range of 3.3-3.5%.

The loan book is currently showing few signs of stress in the current macroeconomic environment  and the business is on a sound financial footing, observes the analyst.

The Buy rating and $1.80 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.63
If JDO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 55.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JIN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley sees scope for a re-rating of Jumbo Interactive's shares given concerns of two months ago have eased. 

These concerns were soft jackpots, a deferral of completion for UK-based lottery management provider StarVale, and a low conviction for earnings at the Canadian-based lottery management provider Stride, explains the analyst.

The broker points out Jumbo Interactive is generating double-digit EPS growth, despite the service fee increase this year, and retains its Overweight rating. The target price is steady at $17.40. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $17.40 Current Price is $13.64 Difference: $3.76
If JIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.01, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Outperform (1) -

Liontown Resources reported a cash balance of $420m at the end of September, and Macquarie considers the company well funded to advance its Kathleen Valley project. The broker expects construction progress will de-risk the project. 

The company focused on underground mine planning in the first quarter, targeting an underground mining tender release in the first quarter of 2023.

The Outperform rating and target price of $2.50 are retained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $0.615
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Sell (5) -

While neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) prices have recently stabilised at around US$79/kg, Ord Minnett retains its Sell rating for Lynas Rare Earths. The current share price implies a long-term NdPr price of US100/kg, explains the broker.

As expected by the analyst, the company's Q1 result was weak due to water outages in Malaysia, while a fairly immaterial capex cost increase at the Kalgoorlie Rare Earth Processing Facility reinforces the potential for execution risk.

NdPr production for the quarter was -3% weaker than Ord Minnett's forecast, while total rare earths oxide (REO) sales were in line.

The target rises to $4.95 from $4.80.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $8.33 Difference: minus $3.38 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.13, suggesting downside of -5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LYC as Re-initiates with Buy (1) -

UBS "initiates" coverage of Lynas Rare Earths, having last updated in March 2021, with a Buy rating and $9.95 target.

While the broker is cautious on production levels and Kalgoorlie construction risk short term, it sees limited further downside to NdPr pricing, which has almost halved from its 2022 highs, and remains bullish on the longer term outlook.

The strategic value of Lynas' non-China supply is only increasing, UBS notes, as highlighted by the US government's US$120m funding for a US Heavy Rare Earth separation facility.

Target price is $9.95 Current Price is $8.33 Difference: $1.62
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.13, suggesting downside of -5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Buy (1) -

Macquarie Group's result was stronger than UBS expected, with a surprisingly resilient performance from Asset Management and expected robust results from Banking and Commodities & Global Markets.

In the broker's view the operating backdrop remains uncertain, clouding the outlook, and high base affects from the second half will make it difficult for Macquarie to show earnings growth or return on equity expansion, which the market is pricing in.

Yet overall, Macquarie through its operating divisions will continue to benefit from both product and geographic diversification, UBS  suggests. Target rises to $190 from $185, Buy retained.

Target price is $190.00 Current Price is $171.55 Difference: $18.45
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $189.88, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAN as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

After increasing its FY23 revenue forecast to allow for a lower Australian dollar, Morgans lifts its rating for Nanosonics to Add from Hold after also taking into account recent share price weakness. The target is increased to $4.91 from $4.87.

The broker's channel checks suggest much of the operating environment in the hospital networks is returning to pre-covid levels.

Target price is $4.91 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $0.8
If NAN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NIC as Neutral (3) -

Nickel Industries' rotary kiln electric furnace earnings were down -46.6% in the Sep Q from the June Q and margins hit an all time low. Citi nevertheless believes coal prices have peaked which should see cash costs now trending down.

The Angel project is ahead of schedule and once Oracle ramps up in 2023, Nickel Industries is on its way to becoming a top-ten producer, the broker notes.

Neutral and 90c target retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.17
If NIC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Neutral (3) -

Nickel Industries' third quarter nickel pig iron production of 20,300 tonnes beat Macquarie's assumptions by 16%.

The result was driven by strong performance from the Angel Nickel Project, off the back of a faster than anticipated ramp up, with production of 69,300 tonnes 54% ahead of Macquarie's expectations.

Third quarter earnings were an 11% beat to the broker's forecast, while costs were 12-20% higher. Macquarie makes minimal changes to its earnings per share forecasts.

The Neutral rating and target price of $0.73 are retained. 

Target price is $0.73 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NTO as Equal-weight (3) -

The board at Nitro Software has rejected the recently increased $1.80/share cash offer from Potentia in favour of a $2.00/share proposal from KKR-backed Alludo. The latter has been granted 21 days of exclusive due diligence.

The broker interprets a higher bid is now possible given the board has signaled a willingness to recommend the $2.00/share bid. It's also felt the bidding augers well for current valuations of Australian small cap software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies.

The Equal-weight rating and $1.30 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If NTO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NXT as Outperform (1) -

Since releasing its full year result, NextDC has underperformed the ASX200 by -18%, but on analysis of downside risks Macquarie finds the business model to remain defensive.

The company reported a large increase in customer incentives in FY22 due to amortisation of refunded service performance fees. NextDC also announced it had secured two offshore sites, but the broker expects this will not materially impact on capital expenditure until FY24. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $11.40 from $12.60.

Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $8.32 Difference: $3.08
If NXT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.59, suggesting upside of 44.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Origin Energy reported a strong Integrated Gas performance in the first half, driving the company to upgrade its outlook to a breakeven in FY23 and FY24 and a profit of $0.35-0.55bn in FY25. 

Macquarie notes significant hedging has locked in Cameron LNG spreads, adding 16-24 cents per share value for shareholders and potential for further hedging to lock in value in FY26. The broker's FY23 earnings forecast lifts 6% on reduced hedge losses. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $7.74 from $7.53.

Target price is $7.74 Current Price is $5.57 Difference: $2.17
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.48, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett highlights from Origin Energy's 1Q activities report an uplift in the LNG forward curve has resulted in improved profitabilty for the trading business. Operating earnings of $350-550m are now expected by 2025.

Results for the quarter were generally positive, according to the analyst, and upgrades to consensus forecasts are expected. Realised gas prices were better-than-expected, while APLNG production was impacted by weather and a planned outage.

The Hold rating and $6.00 target are unchanged, given shares are trading close to the broker's unchanged valuation.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.57 Difference: $0.43
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.48, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Origin Energy's Sep Q numbers were largely in line with UBS. With global gas markets forecast to remain tight until 2026, the broker forecasts Origin will continue to generate strong free cash flow which could support capital management.

UBS expects Origin to benefit from rising domestic gas prices and forecasts gas margins to lift through to FY25. That said, investors remain cautious on possible government intervention in the east coast domestic gas market.

Buy and $7.40 target retained.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $5.57 Difference: $1.83
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.48, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PMV as Hold (3) -

Sales growth over the first 12 weeks of FY23 is broadly in line with the first 7 weeks and ongoing strength is driving large FY23 upgrades for Premier Investments. According to Ord Minnett, also assisting is the potential for strong sales around the Xmas period.

The broker maintains its Hold rating and suggests gross margin and/or elevated inventory levels at 1H results are likely to outweigh any upside surprise on sales growth.

The target price rises to $24.60 from $23.90.

Target price is $24.60 Current Price is $25.03 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.72, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SOL as Add (1) -

FY22 results for WH Soul Pattinson highlighted to Morgans ongoing strong contributions from core investment holdings including New Hope ((NHC)) and Brickworks ((BKW)).

Underlying profit improved by 154% on the previous corresponding period to $834m. Thanks to stronger dividend income from New Hope, a special dividend of 15cps was declared along with the 43cps final dividend.

After the deconsolidation of New Hope from WH Soul Pattinson's statutory results, the broker updates its financial model to now mirror WH Soul Pattinson's parent entity. The target falls to $29.60 from $30.60 and the Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $29.60 Current Price is $27.83 Difference: $1.77
If SOL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SQ2 as Equal-weight (3) -

In anticipation of upcoming 3Q results, Morgan Stanley forecasts 29% year-on-year Seller gross profit growth for Block, which compares to 35% 1H 2022 growth.

The broker believes Cash App's user growth will likely remain strong at 17%, with the last quarter showing 18% year-on-year growth.

The US$85 target and the Equal-weight rating are retained. Industry View: Attractive.

Current Price is $94.43. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $130.00, suggesting upside of 38.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SRL as Neutral (3) -

With its Sunrise project development ready, Sunrise Energy Metals is looking for a funding solution and an offtake partner before it commences production. 

Macquarie estimates the capital cost for the project at -US$2.4bn, 31% higher than indicated in September 2020, but no definitive progress on funding was reported in the first quarter. 

Macquarie expects first construction in 2025, for first production in 2028. It expects the project will deliver 21,300 tonnes of nickel and 4,300 tonnes of cobalt annually for the first ten years.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.30 from $2.50.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.01 Difference: $0.29
If SRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SZL as Buy (1) -

Falling cash burn rates for Sezzle in Q3 impressed Ord Minnett. Also, Sezzle Premium garnered over 100,000 subscribers only four months after launch. Apart from that, the results were largely pre-announced, points out the analyst.

After reviewing bad debt and margin metrics, the broker feels the pathway towards profitability is being built. In an effort to reduce loss rates, management will focus on risk mitigation leading into the holiday season, 

The $1.10 target and Buy rating are maintained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.6
If SZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 120% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TPG as Neutral (3) -

TPG Telecom is exploring the monetisation of its infrastructure assets (Vision Network). Credit Suisse estimates a $1,020m value though maintains its $5.60 target price and forecasts as the price and structure of the transaction are yet to be revealed.

A 100% sale would potentially lift the broker's target price by 37cps. The Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: $0.7
If TPG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting upside of 26.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates UMG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS has upgraded United Malt to Buy from Neutral ahead of its FY22 results, expecting an in line result, unchanged FY23 guidance, and no further 'bad news' to be a positive catalyst for the share price.

The stock has been under pressure since the guidance downgrade in August. But data points suggest to the broker supply-side/cost headwinds should be easing into year-end and beer demand appears to be largely holding up.

Uncertainties still remain over FY23-24, UBS acknowledges, but also opportunities. Target unchanged at $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.39
If UMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VCX as Underweight (5) -

The board at Vicinity Centres is seeking a replacement CEO, now that Grant Kelley will be leaving by June 2023.

While there are several potential replacements from internal ranks, the broker believes a fresh set of eyes may be contemplated given the REIT's big development pipeline and undergeared balance sheet.

Morgan Stanley leaves its Underweight rating and $1.90 target unchanged. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: minus $0.045 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources