Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Underweight (5) -

Three weeks ago, 29Metals provided a negative production and cost update for 2023. After updating its financial model for that news, Morgan Stanley still sees downside risks to the mine plan and expected grades at Golden Grove.

The broker is more dubious than consensus on the prospect for improving costs and lowers its target to $1.55 from $2.00.

The analyst's C1 costs forecast of US$3.0/lb in 2023 fall to US$2.4/lb in 2024 and US$2.2/lb in 2025, versus consensus at US$1.8/lb and US$1.5/lb, respectively.

The Underweight rating is maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: minus $0.305 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.60, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AD8 as Buy (1) -

Audinate Group looks to have delivered a strong beat to UBS's expectations in its first half, according to a first look at results from the broker. US revenue has grown 39% year-on-year and Australian revenue 52% year-on-year, while earnings are up 109%. 

UBS found free cash flow to be the key miss from the update, but expects the market will be able to overlook this. 

The broker is Buy rated with a target price of $10.20.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $7.17 Difference: $3.03
If AD8 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.07, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

According to Citi, while digital industry bookings have flattened out to January 2023, Aristocrat Leisure has continued to outperform. The broker highlighted performance of its's Social Casino portfolio, where bookings were up 8% year-on-year compared to an industry average of 3%. 

A decline in bookings for the RAID platform of -6% year-on-year was less of a positive, but with RAID continuing to outperform the broader RPG genre Citi is cautious not to read too much into limited data. 

The Buy rating and target price of $41.20 are retained.

Target price is $41.20 Current Price is $35.90 Difference: $5.3
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.26, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley suggests a smoother road could be ahead for Australian Wealth Managers.

The broker prefers Insignia Financial ((IFL)) from within its coverage of the sector due to undemanding multiples and potential for a return to inflows. Regulatory tailwinds in advice are also expected to assist.

Those tailwinds should also assist AMP, according to the analysts, though longer-term, AMP Bank is sub-scale and lacks competitive advantage compared to peers.

The target rises to $1.30 from $1.10. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: minus $0.015 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.20, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APX as Underweight (5) -

Despite a 35% share price rally so far this year on speculation Appen will benefit from wider industry investment in AI, Morgan Stanley is cautious given the company's human-based model is less economical than automated solutions provided by competitors.

Also industry feedback suggests to the analyst customer budgets have been reallocated to content moderation AI, in which Appen has limited market share compared to global peer Lionbridge.

The Underweight rating and $2.25 target are maintained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: minus $1.07 (current price is over target).
If APX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ARF as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse saw a good operating result from Arena REIT, with solid rental growth partly offset by rising debt costs. Guidance is unchanged.

Portfolio operations remain solid and the REIT is well positioned in an inflationary environment, the broker suggests, due to CPI-linked leases. Despite rental growth, tenant occupancy costs remain stable.

Credit Suisse sees Arena as a high-quality REIT given its exposure to the Childcare and Healthcare sectors, its strong balance sheet,
prudent management team and earnings growth profile.

On a relative multiple basis, Arena tends to screen “expensive” relative to many A-REIT sector peers, but the broker believes this is function of its highly predictable earnings. Neutral retained, target dips to $3.97 from $4.06.

Target price is $3.97 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $0.12
If ARF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Upgrade to Lighten from Sell (4) -

After a recent share price slide for Alumina Ltd, the valuation trigger at Ord Minnett has been reached and the broker's rating rises to Lighten from Sell.

No changes are made to the analyst's forecasts and the $1.20 target is unchanged.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.58 Difference: minus $0.375 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

In previewing BHP Group's first half results, Macquarie highlights lower half-on-half earnings will be a reflection of commodity price movements. The broker expects a recent rebound in commodity prices can support upside risk to the company's earnings guidance.

With BHP Group's balance sheet remaining strong, the broker expects the company can deliver an interim dividend of US97 cents per share, 10% ahead on consensus expectations. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $52.00 are retained. 

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $48.00 Difference: $4
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.01, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Beach Energy had already released weak production volume updates and a weak guidance was pretty much widely anticipated, comment analysts at UBS following today's interim report.

UBS suggests market focus has shifted to the company doubling the interim distribution via a new policy targeting a distribution payout of 40-50% of FCF (free cash flow) ex-growth.

Hence today's 2c in H1 dividend should be well-received. Higher costs should not have come as a major surprise with UBS commenting investors will keep a keen eye on how the board will balance growth aspirations with shareholder rewards from here onwards.

Buy. Target $1.90.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.39
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAR as Buy (1) -

UBS, upon initial assessment, believes Carsales released an in-line H1 result, with strong commentary on operational trading dynamics.

Most financial metrics in the report have slightly beaten the broker's forecasts, but all-in-all, UBS believes the performance was in line with expectations.

A strong performance from dealerships is seen as a demonstration of the resilient demand for used cars.

Buy. Target $26.30.

Target price is $26.30 Current Price is $22.54 Difference: $3.76
If CAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.50, suggesting upside of 8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley suggests a smoother road could be ahead for Australian Wealth Managers.

The broker prefers Insignia Financial ((IFL)) from within its coverage of the sector due to undemanding multiples and potential for a return to inflows. Regulatory tailwinds in advice are also expected to assist.

Those tailwinds should also assist Challenger, according to the analysts. However, rising rates and spreads are considered a double edged sword, with the Life division benefiting, while credit spread volatility and lower property returns detract from overall earnings.

The target rises to $6.85 from $6.60. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $7.20 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.03, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CIP as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

While raising its rating for Centuria Industrial REIT to Hold from Lighten on valuation, Ord Minnett feels most positives have already been factored into the share price.

The analyst suggests the market is overlooking several factors including a catch-up of supply to demand for industrial property, and the currently low industrial yields in a rising interest rate environment.

The target of $3.00 is unchanged.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.35 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If CIP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Following Deterra Royalties' slightly softer-than-expected 2Q production report (on January 31), Morgan Stanley moves to an Equal-weight rating from Overweight on valuation, after a strong recent share price rally.

The broker sees risk (either upside or downside) to its new rating stance from any prospective bolt-on acquisitions.

The target falls to $5.10 from $5.25. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: $0.23
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.93, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EDV as Lighten (4) -

Upon initial assessment, Endeavour Group's H1 report slightly bettered consensus forecast, on top of a better-than-forecast dividend of 14.3c (versus consensus on 13.1c).

Ord Minnett highlights Christmas trading in particular proved strong. Operating cash flow stands at $643m, down -31% from last year. Higher interest rates impacted through higher finance costs.

Lighten. Target $6.40.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $6.82 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.65, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EDV as Neutral (3) -

Following an initial glance over today's interim report release, UBS believes Endeavour Group is performing strongly. Key operational metrics are all above expectations and trading conditions continue to be firm.

EBIT margin decline in Retail proved less than feared due to margin resilience & strong cost control, including for the Hotels business.

The broker suggests strong cost control remains a key feature. Neutral. Target $6.75.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $6.82 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.65, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVT as Buy (1) -

With data suggesting Australian hotels have continued to recover strongly over 2022, with revenue per available room up 18% on pre-covid levels between July and December, as well as headwinds from subscription and premium video on demand proving less significant than previously thought, EVT Ltd remains Citi's top pick for the small cap leisure sector. 

The broker went on to point out that EVT Ltd's $2bn property portfolio provides some support in an uncertain macro environment. The broker expects Hotel revenues to return to pre-covid levels in the second half of the fiscal year, and cinemas in FY27. 

The Buy rating and target price of $17.85 are retained.

Target price is $17.85 Current Price is $13.71 Difference: $4.14
If EVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GQG as Overweight (1) -

As outflows continue and growth options are muted, Morgan Stanley feels shares of Australian Asset managers have rallied too soon.

Setting aside best-in-class Macquarie Group, under its coverage the broker prefers GQG Partners (given strong inflows) and also Perpetual (Overweight) on diverse growth options and valuation support.

The Overweight rating and $1.90 target are retained for GQG Partners. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.44
If GQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.05, suggesting upside of 39.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HVN as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

After a recent share price slide for Harvey Norman, the valuation trigger at Ord Minnett has been reached and the broker's rating rises to Hold from Lighten.

No changes are made to the analyst's forecasts and the $3.90 target is unchanged.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $4.14 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.31, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IAG as Hold (3) -

Insurance Australia Group had issued a profit warning earlier. Today's H1 release seems to have generated a "beat" on 'adjusted earnings' while the 6c in dividend is a big miss; market consensus was expecting 8c.

Ord Minnett points out the insurer updated guidance for FY23 to also include the financial impact of the Auckland flooding event. Gross written premia growth of around 10% signals an increase from earlier guidance of ‘mid-to-high single digit’ growth.

Also: the reported insurance margin of around 10% implies a reduction from earlier guidance of ‘14% to 16%’. The insurer has retained its “aspirational goal” to achieve a 15% to 17% insurance margin and a reported ROE of 12% to 13% over the medium term, the broker adds.

Hold. Target $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.71 Difference: $0.79
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Sell (5) -

Upon initial assessment, Insurance Australia Group's H1 market update showed key metrics in line with the recent profit warning, UBS comments.

The broker shown no enthusiasm, instead pointing out the direct margin has "collapsed" while repricing still appears to be lagging recent claims trends.

Sell rating, Price Target $4.20. The broker highlights the insurer is 21% through the current $350m buyback.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.71 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley suggests a smoother road could be ahead for Australian Wealth Managers.

The broker prefers Insignia Financial from within its coverage of the sector with undemanding multiples and potential for a return to inflows. Regulatory tailwinds in advice are also expected to assist.

The analysts also like cost efficiencies/synergies in the company's transition to a simpler business model with leading scale, in an industry that is recovering from disruption.

The target falls to $4.00 from $4.10. Overweight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.55
If IFL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JBH as Lighten (4) -

At first glance, it appears JB Hi-Fi's interim report released today beat market consensus on normalised EPS and dividend declared.

Ord Minnett points out sales continue to be above pre-Covid January 2020, but sales growth has started to moderate from the elevated levels seen in H1.

Lighten. Target $35.50.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $46.62 Difference: minus $11.12 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.03, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Neutral (3) -

JB Hi-Fi's H1 update had already been pre-guided, UBS comments today. The broker does believe the apparent moderation in January trading is a concern.

Neutral. Target $46.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $46.62 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $46.03, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JLG as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Citi initiates coverage on Johns Lyng, with increasing severity and frequency of catastrophic events, a market leading position with a competitive edge, and significant upside potential in strata and US expansion all underpinning a positive view. 

According to Citi's research, catastrophic events across both Australia and the US remain on an upward trajectory, and expected to translate to elevated levels of contributions for Johns Lyng. The total loss value from these events in Australia growing at an 11% compound annual growth rate since 1994. 

The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $8.77.

Target price is $8.77 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $3.19
If JLG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.26, suggesting upside of 43.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates KGL as Speculative Buy (1) -

While KGL Resources' definitive feasibility study (DFS) for Jervois confirmed the project is technically and economically viable, there were several material misses versus Ord Minnett's forecasts.

These misses included lower copper output estimates and 25% higher unit costs, which combined to set a $241m valuation, well below the broker's $357m expectation. It's thought the disparity arises from a lower estimated copper grade.

The target price fall to 75c from 95c. The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged on the basis of a unique copper exposure, according to Ord Minnett.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.545
If KGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 266% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Citi, upon initial assessment, highlights Lendlease Group's H1 result missed consensus by some -5% with development earnings pushing this year's skew into H2, creating additional uncertainty for shareholders.

The broker adds the potential for economic recessions in places like the UK and North America pose challenges for the business, though management has left FY24 targets intact.

Citi also points out the share price had "bounced" ahead of today's result release. Buy. Target $10.40.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $8.30 Difference: $2.1
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.67, suggesting upside of 37.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Lendlease Group's H1 update released today was slightly weaker than forecast, suggest analysts at UBS in an initial response. The company is carrying higher debt but suggested the outlook for FY24 should be okay.

Rummaging through the key financial metrics displayed in the report, it strongly appears the "slightly" in slightly missed is quite subjective. This includes Lendlease declaring a 4.9c dividend versus 5.7c forecast by UBS.

Things should improve in H2. This seems to be the pillar under UBS's view, and Buy rating. Target $11.15.

Target price is $11.15 Current Price is $8.30 Difference: $2.85
If LLC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.67, suggesting upside of 37.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Underweight (5) -

As outflows continue and growth options are muted, Morgan Stanley feels shares of Australian Asset managers have rallied too soon.

Setting aside best-in-class Macquarie Group, under its coverage the broker prefers GQG Partners (given strong inflows) and also Perpetual on diverse growth options and valuation support.

Magellan Financial remains the least preferred by Morgan Stanley and has an Underweight rating. The target falls to $6.40 from $7.50. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $9.03 Difference: minus $2.63 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.35, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MGR as Buy (1) -

Following in-line 1H results for Mirvac Group, Ord Minnett maintains its full year outlook for earnings and dividends.

The broker keeps its full-year estimate of 2,500 settlements in Residential, despite only 807 in the 1H, which was impacted by weather, labour shortages and supply chain disruption.

The build-to-rent portfolio is performing very strongly, notes the analyst, highlighting the residential dwelling shortage. The performance of the commercial property holdings was considered in line with expectations.

The Buy rating and $3.10 rating are unchanged.

The $3.10 target price has jumped from $2.60 in the FNArena database as Ord Minnett now whitelabels its research from Morningstar instead of JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.83
If MGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley provides its forecasts for 1H results on February 23 for Medibank Private.

The broker is expecting policyholder growth of 2% and EPS of 6c, while consensus forecasts 2.4% and 8.1c. A health insurance gross margin of 13.5% is also expected, just below the 15.7% estimated by consensus.

Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-weight rating and $3.05 target for Medibank Private. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

Medicare statistics have been released for December, showing IVF cycles were up 16.2% year-on-year in the month. Macquarie estimates Monash IVF has made market share gains of 150 basis points in the first half, but with cycles ahead of the broker's expectations it expects the company needs only a 50 basis point gain to meet forecasts. 

The broker anticipates 12% cycle growth for the company on the second half, attributed to greater contributions to acquisitions and recruitment of specialist doctors. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $1.30 are retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.23
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAN as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

After a recent share price slide for Nanosonics, the valuation trigger at Ord Minnett has been reached and the broker's rating rises to Hold from Lighten.

No changes are made to the analyst's forecasts and the $4.00 target is unchanged.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If NAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.60, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NWS as Outperform (1) -

News Corp's result fell short of Credit Suisse on weakness in News Media, Dow Jones and Books, with Digital Real Estate earnings slightly better than forecast. Management’s outlook commentary pointed to the challenging trends seen in the Dec quarter persisting into March.

While the near-term outlook will see some weakness, the broker expects cost-out initiatives announced by management, including reducing discretionary spending and reducing overall headcount, will see some of these earnings declines reverse in subsequent years.

Outperform retained, target falls to $35.70 from $36.50.

Target price is $35.70 Current Price is $28.00 Difference: $7.7
If NWS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.18, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWS as Neutral (3) -

News Corp has delivered a better than expected earnings result in its second quarter, which Macquarie has attributed to lower costs. The broker highlights advertising moderated in the period, but this had been anticipated in read-throughs from offshore peers, 

What was more disappointing, according to Macquarie, was cyclicality of the book publishing business, with the broker claiming cyclical trends continue to erode the underlying business. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $34.00 from $26.00.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $28.00 Difference: $6
If NWS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.18, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NWS as No Rating (-1) -

After taking an initial look at News Corp's 1H results (announced last Friday) Morgan Stanley notes a small earnings miss.

Management attributed this outcome mostly to weaker cyclical ad revenues in Media and higher cost inflation (Media and Books divisions).

The broker points out 2H earnings (EBITDA) of US$661m (compared to US$673m in previous corresponding period) are now required to meet the full-year FY23 consensus forecast of US$1,420m. It's felt risk is skewed to the downside for this outcome.

Morgan Stanley is under research restriction and offers no rating nor target. Industry view: Attractive.

Current Price is $28.00. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $33.18, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWS as Hold (3) -

Following 2Q results, Ord Minnett lowers its earnings (EBITDA) estimates for News Corp by only -3% though earnings forecasts inclusive of associate losses are cut by -6%.

The fall in the latter earnings forecast is due to losses already incurred on Betr (online sports wagering) and the likelihood they will continue, explains the analyst.

The fall in 2Q earnings was partly due to currency (-17%), explains the broker. The balance reflected the impact of rising interest rates on digital real estate, the Dow Jones business, softening consumer spending (books) and lower advertiser confidence (News media).

Target $29. Hold.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $28.00 Difference: $1
If NWS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.18, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Overweight (1) -

As outflows continue and growth options are muted, Morgan Stanley feels shares of Australian Asset managers have rallied too soon.

Setting aside best-in-class Macquarie Group, under its coverage the broker prefers Overweight-rated GQG Partners (given strong inflows) and also Perpetual on diverse growth options and valuation support.

The analysts also consider Perpetual has the best capability in the ESG space.

The target rises to $30.90 from $29.80.Overweight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $30.90 Current Price is $25.91 Difference: $4.99
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.82, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PTM as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

As outflows continue and growth options are muted, Morgan Stanley feels shares of Australian Asset managers have rallied too soon.

Setting aside best-in-class Macquarie Group, under its coverage the broker prefers GQG Partners (given strong inflows) and also Perpetual on diverse growth options and valuation support.

On valuation, the broker downgrades its rating for Platinum Asset Management to Underweight from Equal-weight. It's felt the asset manager is too dear relative to peers given limited growth options and challenged (though stable) flows.

The target rises to $1.85 from $1.70. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REA as Buy (1) -

Following the first half REA Group appears slightly more cautious on the outlook, largely in line with Citi's expectations that the previous view was too optimistic.  December quarter listings proved weaker than expected, and the company faces tough comparables in the June quarter. 

Positively, the broker expects REA Group will face less of an impact from geo mix headwinds in the second half, with Citi estimating it caused a 4% impact on yield growth in the first half. 

The Buy rating and target price of $144.00 are retained.

Target price is $144.00 Current Price is $121.11 Difference: $22.89
If REA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $120.92, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates REA as Outperform (1) -

REA Group has reported first results slightly lower than Credit Suisse' estimates, driven by the associate loss at Move. Underlying earnings in line with estimates.

FY23 opex guidance has been lowered, but while continuing to target greater income growth than cost growth (positive
operating jaws), management has conceded this target is highly dependent on the listings environment and may not be met.

The broker expects any listings weakness to reverse in FY23, and of greater importance was the strong yield performance despite the tough listings environment. Outperform retained, target falls to $137.90 from $139.00.

Target price is $137.90 Current Price is $121.11 Difference: $16.79
If REA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $120.92, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Underperform (5) -

While REA Group's first half revenue was in line with Macquarie's expectations, investment costs saw earnings slightly disappoint the broker. 

With the company confirming its positive jaws guidance for the fiscal year is dependent on the listings environment, Macquarie feels REA Group is preparing for a downside scenario to be worse than initially thought. Macquarie retains its expectations of a -15% decline in listings over the second half. 

The Underperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $87.00 from $91.00.

Target price is $87.00 Current Price is $121.11 Difference: minus $34.11 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $120.92, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates REA as No Rating (-1) -

While 1H results for REA Group were in line with expectations last Friday, Morgan Stanley (on it's first look) notes outlook comments point to ongoing challenging trading conditions.

Industry feedback suggests ongoing sharp weakness in new listings for the next three to six months and the analysts see downside risk to the consensus earnings (EBITDA) forecast.

Management noted positive operating jaws (rate of revenue growth exceeding cost growth) may not be achievable in FY23

Morgan Stanley is under research restriction and offers no target nor rating for REA Group. Industry view: Attractive.

Current Price is $121.11. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $120.92, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates REA as Add (1) -

In an overall tough listings environment, REA Group performed with resilience in the 1H, suggests Morgans, particularly in its core Australia Residential division.

Compared to consensus, 1H results for revenue and earnings were beats of 2% and 1%, respectively, while profit was a miss of -1%.

A 75cps dividend was declared, coming in under the 79.5cpc expected by consensus.

The broker lowers its target to $133 from $136 after factoring-in slightly lower revenue growth and higher near-term opex forecasts. The company remains one of the highest quality franchises under Morgans coverage. Add.

Target price is $133.00 Current Price is $121.11 Difference: $11.89
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $120.92, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates REA as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett notes 5% 1H year-on-year revenue growth for REA Group in its Residential segment was skewed by 5% listings growth in the 1Q. New buy listings in the 2Q fell to -21% year-on-year. 

The analyst forecasts Residential revenue will decline by -13% during the 2H as listings volumes continue to normalise from levels achieved after the onset of covid.

The broker expects prospective sellers will become increasingly price-sensitive to listing fees in the current housing environment. 

The Lighten rating and $100 target are unchanged.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $121.11 Difference: minus $21.11 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $120.92, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REA as Neutral (3) -

REA Group's first half result showed resilience in yields, UBS notes, despite strong listing volume declines in Sydney/Melbourne in the Dec quarter. The broker remains confident REA can achieve double-digit yield growth in FY23 but maintains a cautious stance
on volume declines.

UBS raises its FY23-25 forecasts to reflect a less-worse volume decline expectation for FY23 of -13.5% (previously -15%) and an improved yield growth outcome of 12% (previously 10%).

Target rises to $123.60 from $120.20, Neutral retained.

Target price is $123.60 Current Price is $121.11 Difference: $2.49
If REA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $120.92, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Underweight (5) -

Ramsay Health Care is due to report its 1H results on Thursday, February 23.

Morgan Stanley forecasts revenue of $7,155m, an earnings (EBIT) margin of 6.3% and EPS of 90c after convertible adjustable rate equity securities. Consensus estimates are for $7,217m, 6.9% and 79c, respectively.

The Underweight rating and $62.10 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $62.10 Current Price is $64.70 Difference: minus $2.6 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $66.84, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SSM as Neutral (3) -

Service Stream has identified a further $20.0m provision required to complete a challenging utility project in Queensland, having previously announced a $5.0m contract provision in the last financial year.

The $20.0m provision is expected to impact in the first half of FY23, in addition to the $16.0m in cash outflows already incurred by the project in the half. 

Excluding the impact of this provision, the company's first half earnings of $54.0m were in line with Macquarie's expectations. The broker highlights the spend will support successful completion of the project by the end of the year. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $0.66 are retained.

Target price is $0.66 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.03
If SSM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.76, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SSM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes the amended onerous contract provisions (by -$20m) for Service Stream's problematic utilities project in Queensland will be sufficient to take the project to completion.

The analysts suggest a contingency buffer is built into the latest provisions and around 60-70% of workflows are already completed.

The broker lowers its target to 87c from $1.14 and maintains its Buy rating.

Target price is $0.87 Current Price is $0.63 Difference: $0.24
If SSM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.76, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Having outperformed the US retail industry in December, Citi highlights Treasury Wine Estates underperformed through January, reporting a -5% sales decline in the period whiles sales industry-wide remained largely flat. 

Export volumes of bottled red wine to Asia did increase 11% during the second quarter, and Citi sees potential for the stock to re-rate should the China market reopen to Treasury Wine Estates. However, at this point the broker sees positives as being offset by negatives for the company. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $13.50 are retained.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $14.38 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.57, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates UMG as Outperform (1) -

United Malt has reiterated full year guidance at its recent annual general, as expected by Macquarie, with the company anticipating pre-software as a service earnings of $140-160m and post-software as a service earnings of $133-153m. 

Macquarie remains confident in a significant earnings recovery from the company from FY23, expecting the fiscal year to benefit from a $34m impact from the nine-month reversal of crop impacts, alongside expansion and transformation benefits. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $3.99 are retained.

Target price is $3.99 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.27
If UMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates UMG as Neutral (3) -

United Malt reaffirmed its first half and FY23 guidance at its AGM on the assumption of no material deterioration in market conditions, which UBS had expected based on the continued easing of previous supply-side headwinds in barley, freight and energy costs.

Management did indicate slightly softer volumes the Dec quarter, consistent with the broker's recent industry feedback around beer demand, but among positive takeaways was a reaffirmed expectation for leverage to reduce from 5x to 2-2.5x by September year-end.

On current valuation and the balance of risks, UBS retains Neutral and a $3.70 target.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If UMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources