Australian Broker Call

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June 29, 2018

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY

Last Updated: 11:23 AM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CSL - CSL Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
WSA - WESTERN AREAS Upgrade to Neutral from Sell UBS
AOG  AVEO GROUP

Aged Care & Seniors

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Overnight Price: $2.42

ADDED

Ord Minnett rates AOG as Accumulate (2) -

The company has published FY18 guidance of 21.6c per share, from 20.4c previously. Ord Minnett raises FY18 forecast earnings by 9%. The increase is because of higher-than-expected margins at the Newstead retirement development.

The company expects growth in FY19 retirement operating earnings but has reduced its FY19 expected completions to 418 from 500 as a result of the slowdown in the residential market.

Accumulate rating retained. Price target is $3.50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $1.08
If AOG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.61, suggesting upside of 49.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.8, implying annual growth of -41.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of -22.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AWC  ALUMINA LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina

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Overnight Price: $2.80

UBS rates AWC as Sell (5) -

The broker has updated its suite of commodity price forecasts. Alumina Ltd target unchanged at $2.30, Sell retained.

While tight alumina and aluminium markets have benefited the company year to date, the market is already pricing this in, the broker believes.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.71, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.08 cents and EPS of 29.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.79 cents and EPS of 23.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.1, implying annual growth of -29.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ  AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $4.29

Credit Suisse rates AZJ as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse analysts attended Aurizon's Investor Day and they report today the event focused on fixing a broken regulatory structure plus further cost out opportunities.

Management would like a better relationship with the regulator, of course, but how to achieve it? Short term, the analysts see upside risk to consensus. Outperform rating retained. Target unchanged at $4.85.

Earnings estimates have been slightly lowered.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: $0.56
If AZJ meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.60 cents and EPS of 27.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.80 cents and EPS of 28.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.5, implying annual growth of -7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates AZJ as Hold (3) -

Morgans observes the improvements are being hampered by regulatory concerns in the below-rail business and loss of iron ore earnings.

The broker continues to believe the earnings direction is downwards unless the company can substantially change the QCA's stance on UT5. Aurizon will undertake a review of vertical integration benefits in FY19.

Target is reduced to $4.35 from $4.55. Hold maintained.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: $0.06
If AZJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.5, implying annual growth of -7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates AZJ as Sell (5) -

Management has provided guidance on the earnings impact of an unfavourable outcome on UT5. This is the draft undertaking re-access to the company's Queensland coal rail network that is currently before the Queensland Supreme Court.

Aurizon also indicated the impact of the loss of iron ore contracts amid a flat outlook for coal and has begun a strategic review of its vertically integrated structure.

All up, Ord Minnett estimates the guidance implies possible FY19 earnings (EBIT) of $740-900m, depending on whether the transitional tariffs remain in place for all of FY19.

Because of the significant uncertainties the broker maintains a Sell rating and lowers the target to $3.90 from $4.00.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.5, implying annual growth of -7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates AZJ as Buy (1) -

The company has flagged lower earnings expectations in FY19 because of timing issues. UBS incorporates $50m in additional costs in coal haulage and the network which reduces FY19 estimates by -7%. FY20 is unchanged.

FY18 guidance for EBIT of $900-960m is re-affirmed. UBS maintains a Buy rating and $4.60 target.

For the UT5 regulatory outcome the broker's assumptions include a -$60m step down rather than the -$100m implied by the December draft. This contemplates a slightly better outcome on maintenance cost allowances and WACC.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: $0.31
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.5, implying annual growth of -7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP  BHP BILLITON LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $34.01

UBS rates BHP as Buy (1) -

The broker has updated its suite of commodity price forecasts. BHP target rises to $37 from $36, Buy retained.

The broker forecasts a US$10bn price tag for BHP's shale assets, the majority of which will be returned to shareholders. The stock is trading at a discount to Rio Tinto ((RIO)) despite superior organic growth opportunities, hence remains the broker's preference.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $34.01 Difference: $2.99
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.48, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 167.66 cents and EPS of 230.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 232.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 196.03 cents and EPS of 292.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 249.7, implying annual growth of 7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCL  COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $9.16

Citi rates CCL as Buy (1) -

Citi accepts the company is addressing its price position in both water and flavoured carbonated soft drink and this will lift volume. However, the broker also needs to witness increased development of new products to improve the sales mix.

On balance, the broker finds the market more rational and pricing has improved in the past six months based on supermarket scan data.

Target price is $9.70. Buy rating retained, reflecting a better balance between future revenue and cost growth.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $9.16 Difference: $0.54
If CCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.86, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 54.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.0, implying annual growth of -9.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 55.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.8, implying annual growth of 3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIM  CIMIC GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $41.80

ADDED

Ord Minnett rates CIM as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has increased confidence in its expectations that 2018 would be the strongest year of growth for the company, given the timing of major infrastructure projects.

According to data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics the value of work done in roads and rail grew 34% in the first quarter of 2018, to $7.9bn.

On the back of this data Ord Minnett forecasts an increase of 29% in the value of work done in 2018. The broker expects the company's construction revenues will grow by $400m at an 8.2% margin to $8bn. Hold rating and $46.56 target maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $46.56 Current Price is $41.80 Difference: $4.76
If CIM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.81, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 148.00 cents and EPS of 237.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.6, implying annual growth of 9.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 148.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 155.00 cents and EPS of 249.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 246.1, implying annual growth of 4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 152.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $193.36

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett believes the risk/reward profile has become less compelling and downgrades to Hold from Accumulate.

That said, the broker remains confident that the company will have another year of earnings growth in the mid teens, supported by therapies such as Idelvion, Haegarda and Hizentra. Target is unchanged at $195.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $195.00 Current Price is $193.36 Difference: $1.64
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $190.25, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 219.24 cents and EPS of 493.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 516.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 225.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 248.90 cents and EPS of 570.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 581.6, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 256.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN  EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $3.51

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Underweight (5) -

A review of Morgan Stanley's commodity deck has driven upgrades for metals and bulks while earnings estimates for lithium players are reduced.

However, the market cap weighted downside of -6% drives the broker's industry view to In-Line from Attractive.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Underweight rating on Evolution Mining. Target is raised to $2.70 from $2.60. Industry view is: In-Line.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: minus $0.81 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.97, suggesting downside of -15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 23.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 25.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $4.42

UBS rates FMG as Buy (1) -

The broker has updated its suite of commodity price forecasts. Fortescue target falls to $5.60 from $5.75, Buy retained. The broker sees some risk to achieving production guidance and does not expect the low grade price discount to close.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $1.18
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.31, suggesting upside of 20.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 21.92 cents and EPS of 39.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.92 cents and EPS of 36.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.5, implying annual growth of -8.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GXY  GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $2.98

Morgan Stanley rates GXY as Equal-weight (3) -

A review of Morgan Stanley's commodity deck has driven upgrades for metals and bulks while earnings estimates for lithium players are reduced. The market cap weighted downside of -6% drives the broker's industry view to In-Line from Attractive.

Equal-weight rating retained for Galaxy Resources. Target is reduced to $2.80 from $2.95. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If GXY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.0, implying annual growth of 30852.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 9.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates GXY as Buy (1) -

The broker has updated its suite of commodity price forecasts. Galaxy target falls to $3.75 from $3.95, Buy retained.

The broker suggests Galaxy is one of few EV-related miners offering near term upside but expects near-term lithium prices to remain flat.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.77
If GXY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.0, implying annual growth of 30852.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 9.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO  INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $5.18

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Equal-weight (3) -

A review of Morgan Stanley's commodity deck has driven upgrades for metals and bulks while earnings estimates for lithium players are reduced. The market cap weighted downside of -6% drives the broker's industry view to In-Line from Attractive.

The broker maintains an Equal-weight rating for Independence Group. Target is reduced to $4.45 from $4.55. Industry view is: In-Line.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $5.18 Difference: minus $0.73 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.80, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 265.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.4, implying annual growth of 305.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

The broker has increased nickel price forecasts by 12% in 2018 and 6% in 2019, leading to a 37% FY18 forecast earnings upgrade and 27% in FY19 for Independence Group. The broker sees the company's Nova mine as well placed to benefit from global growth in EV demand.

Target rises to $5.20 from $5.10, Neutral retained.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.18 Difference: $0.02
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.80, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 74.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 265.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.4.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.4, implying annual growth of 305.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU  ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands

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Overnight Price: $11.12

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Overweight (1) -

A review of Morgan Stanley's commodity deck has driven upgrades for metals and bulks while earnings estimates for lithium players are reduced. The market cap weighted downside of -6% drives the broker's industry view to In-Line from Attractive.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating for Iluka. Industry view is In-Line. Target is reduced to $12.60 from $13.40.

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $11.12 Difference: $1.48
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.28, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.8, implying annual growth of 13.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates ILU as Buy (1) -

The broker has updated its suite of commodity price forecasts. Iluka target unchanged at $13.00, Buy retained.

The company is benefiting from a tight zircon market, the broker notes, and, having learnt from past mistakes, is focused on maintaining a sustainable growth trajectory.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.12 Difference: $1.88
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.28, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.8, implying annual growth of 13.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR  MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $2.18

Citi rates MGR as Buy (1) -

The company has tightened FY18 guidance to 15.6c a share and Citi envisages upside risk for FY19. Even though conditions in the residential housing market may be softening, the broker believes Mirvac will be in the box seat.

The company should benefit from having pre sold 90% of major apartment projects due for completion to FY20. Additionally, commercial development profits of over $160m have been secured.

Buy rating and $2.35 target maintained.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.17
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.34, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -50.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 16.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of 3.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $15.87

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

A review of Morgan Stanley's commodity deck has driven upgrades for metals and bulks while earnings estimates for lithium players are reduced. Still, the broker finds growth at a reasonable price in Mineral Resources and the stock is the top pick.

However, the market cap weighted downside of -6% drives the broker's industry view to In-Line from Attractive.

Target is reduced to $21.50 from $22.80. Overweight retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $15.87 Difference: $5.63
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.88, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.70 cents and EPS of 135.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.0, implying annual growth of 44.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 91.70 cents and EPS of 156.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.3, implying annual growth of 10.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MQG  MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $125.86

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley acknowledges investor concerns about its upgrade of Macquarie Group to Overweight. These concerns centre on the quality of earnings growth, lumpy items and valuation.

Morgan Stanley counters this with observations that the stock is in an earnings upgrade cycle and there is upside risk to consensus estimates.

The pipeline of lumpy items means the near-term risk is low and the broker believes the benefit of increasing diversity is counter cyclical. Industry view is In-Line and the target is $130.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $125.86 Difference: $4.14
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $114.14, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 575.00 cents and EPS of 820.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 788.6, implying annual growth of 4.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 558.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 615.00 cents and EPS of 886.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 822.3, implying annual growth of 4.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 592.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS  METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $2.56

ADDED

Ord Minnett rates MTS as Accumulate (2) -

After the briefing, Ord Minnett notes the company's confidence that it will retain customers, including Foodland SA. Metcash highlighted the importance of the Foodland brand, which cannot be used by Drakes once it leaves the Metcash distribution chain.

The company remains confident it will have superior buying terms to Drakes SA to offer to Foodland retailers, which will also benefit from its larger scale. Ord Minnett maintains an Accumulate rating and $3.25 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.69
If MTS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.98, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 3.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $21.95

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Equal-weight (3) -

A review of Morgan Stanley's commodity deck has driven upgrades for metals and bulks while earnings estimates for lithium players are reduced. The market cap weighted downside of -6% drives the broker's industry view to In-Line from Attractive.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Equal-weight rating for Newcrest. Target is reduced to $19.50 from $19.75. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $21.95 Difference: minus $2.45 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.98, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 54.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 119.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 124.9, implying annual growth of 70.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST  NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $7.11

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Underweight (5) -

A review of Morgan Stanley's commodity deck has driven upgrades for metals and bulks while earnings estimates for lithium players are reduced. The market cap weighted downside of -6% drives the broker's industry view to In-Line from Attractive.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Underweight rating for Northern Star. Industry view is In-Line. Target is raised to $5.05 from $5.00.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $7.11 Difference: minus $2.06 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting downside of -18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.3, implying annual growth of -7.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.3, implying annual growth of 45.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORE  OROCOBRE LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $5.23

Morgan Stanley rates ORE as Underweight (5) -

A review of Morgan Stanley's commodity deck has driven upgrades for metals and bulks while earnings estimates for lithium players are reduced. The market cap weighted downside of -6% drives the broker's industry view to In-Line from Attractive.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Underweight rating for Orocobre. Target is steady at $4.25. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $5.23 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If ORE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.03, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 74.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of 331.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 55.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 87.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 132.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates ORE as Buy (1) -

The broker has updated its suite of commodity price forecasts. Orocobre target falls to $6.70 from $7.40, Buy retained.

The market dynamics for EV-related miners are solid, the broker suggest, it will just come down to execution on Orocobre's part. Lithium prices are expected to remain flat.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.23 Difference: $1.47
If ORE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.03, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of 331.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 55.1.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 132.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OZL  OZ MINERALS LIMITED

Copper

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Overnight Price: $9.41

UBS rates OZL as Neutral (3) -

The broker has trimmed copper price forecasts but also reduced its Aussie assumptions, providing an offset for OZ valuation. The broker believes both existing Prominent Hill production and the development of Carrapateena are fairly valued in the share price.

There are other growth options that might lead to a re-rating, but the broker does not see upside until these are proved up and/or Carrapateena is further de-risked. Neutral retained, target falls to $10.50 from $11.00.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.41 Difference: $1.09
If OZL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.96, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.3, implying annual growth of -4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.2, implying annual growth of -22.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PSQ  PACIFIC SMILES GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $1.56

Morgan Stanley rates PSQ as Overweight (1) -

The company has indicated fee growth of 11% versus prior guidance of 10-15%. A softer second half and guidance that implies little leverage in FY19 means Morgan Stanley reduces earnings forecasts by -8.7% for FY18 and -14.7% for FY19.

The company has an opportunity to roll out 250-300 dental centres that can generate over $500,000 each and be supported on an overhead of around $20m.

Hence, the broker believes the stock is one of the few genuine long-term roll-out stories in Australia with an attractive defensive demand profile in the healthcare sector, amid far less doctor or regulatory risk.

Overweight rating, In-Line industry view and target reduced to $1.90 from $2.20.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.34
If PSQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.29.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.29.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $83.46

UBS rates RIO as Buy (1) -

The broker has updated its suite of commodity price forecasts. Rio target rises to $93 from $90, Buy retained. The broker nevertheless prefers BHP's ((BHP)) superior organic growth options.

Target price is $93.00 Current Price is $83.46 Difference: $9.54
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $89.31, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 419.14 cents and EPS of 682.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 747.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 424.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 428.17 cents and EPS of 680.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 649.9, implying annual growth of -13.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 388.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMD  RESMED INC

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $14.14

Macquarie rates RMD as Underperform (5) -

The US Department of Health has released a report on Medicare claims for replacement positive airways pressure (PAP) supplies. The report was to determine whether claims complied with Medicare requirements. A large proportion of claims were found non-compliant.

Macquarie believes this most likely reflects inadequate administrative processes but, to the extent it identifies an element of resupply that is not reasonable or necessary, this would present downside risk to forecasts for masks/accessories.

With scenario analysis showing the risk/reward profile is skewed to the downside the broker's Underperform rating is maintained. Target is $12.10.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $14.14 Difference: minus $2.04 (current price is over target).
If RMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.30, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.44 cents and EPS of 45.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.99 cents and EPS of 46.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.7, implying annual growth of 8.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL  REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $5.17

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Underweight (5) -

A review of Morgan Stanley's commodity deck has driven upgrades for metals and bulks while earnings estimates for lithium players are reduced. The market cap weighted downside of -6% drives the broker's industry view to In-Line from Attractive.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Underweight rating for Regis Resources. Target is raised to $4.35 from $3.80. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $5.17 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting downside of -18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.8, implying annual growth of 15.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.3, implying annual growth of 7.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $3.61

UBS rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

The broker has updated its suite of commodity price forecasts. South32 target unchanged at $3.70, Neutral retained. Despite earnings forecast increases, the broker does not yet see a lot more valuation upside on a mixed operational performance.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.61 Difference: $0.09
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.79, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.64 cents and EPS of 34.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.21 cents and EPS of 45.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of 7.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR  SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL

Copper

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Overnight Price: $9.16

UBS rates SFR as Sell (5) -

The broker has trimmed copper price forecasts but also reduced its Aussie assumptions, providing an offset for Sandfire valuation. Strong copper exposure, free cash flow near term production growth and the imminent start-up of high-grade Monty are driving a strong share price performance, the broker notes.

But the broker's key concern is a mine life of less than four years. Exploration success, or M&A using the strong balance sheet, would allay such concerns but until then the broker retains Sell. Target rises to $7.50 from $7.40.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $9.16 Difference: minus $1.66 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.53, suggesting downside of -17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 76.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.4, implying annual growth of 59.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.5, implying annual growth of 26.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $6.18

Citi rates STO as Sell (5) -

The company has announced a new dividend policy which Citi believes is more sensible, albeit more volatile. A pay-out of 10-30% of free cash flow has been announced. The board will determine the range based on the growth outlook and associated balance sheet capacity.

The broker likes the fact the pay-out is more aligned to prevailing business conditions. No confirmation was given regarding a dividend in August but Citi suspects one may be on the cards following the rejection of the Harbour Energy bid.

The broker retains a Sell rating, which it acknowledges may be the wrong call in the short term, premised on a view that oil prices will fall in the medium term because of the economics of US shale. Target is $5.47.

Target price is $5.47 Current Price is $6.18 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.80 cents and EPS of 35.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.61 cents and EPS of 48.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of 13.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates STO as Hold (3) -

The company will be reintroducing dividends, with a policy to pay out 10-30% of free cash flow. Management has also noted a net debt target of US$2bn will be achieved in the second half of 2018, down from US$2.7bn in December 2017.

Ord Minnett considers the new dividend policy a positive in that it reflects a better outlook for cash generation, but with no viable near-term growth upside and the stock trading above valuation maintains a Hold rating. Target is lowered to $5.65 from $5.75.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $6.18 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 36.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.77 cents and EPS of 45.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of 13.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYR  SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $2.93

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

A review of Morgan Stanley's commodity deck has driven upgrades for metals and bulks while earnings estimates for lithium players are reduced. The market cap weighted downside of -6% drives the broker's industry view to In-Line from Attractive.

Equal-weight retained for Syrah Resources. Target is reduced to $3.15 from $3.55. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $0.22
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 61.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 75.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 195.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of 1360.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SYR as Buy (1) -

The broker has updated its suite of commodity price forecasts. Syrah target falls to $4.15 from $4.60, Buy retained.

The target downgrade relates to a production run-rate falling short of expectation, posing a risk to achieving guidance. But the broker still sees value on its positive EV demand thematic.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $1.22
If SYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.72, suggesting upside of 61.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 97.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 195.3.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of 1360.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLS  TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED

Telecommunication

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Overnight Price: $2.63

ADDED

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes investors remain unsure of just how the company's new mobile plans will pan out. Investors are particularly concerned with the potential reduction in price as a result of the significant step down in FY19 guidance.

Ord Minnett expects overall average revenue per user will come down but also envisages the new plans will drive average revenue per account and top-line growth as a result of improved subscriber additions.

Accumulate retained. Target is $3.30.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: $0.67
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of -16.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of -16.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VRT  VIRTUS HEALTH LIMITED

Healthcare services

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Overnight Price: $5.62

Morgan Stanley rates VRT as Overweight (1) -

The company continues to move forward with its offshore expansion plans, acquiring Trianglen in Denmark. Morgan Stanley estimates the transaction could be around 3% accretive in FY19 and somewhat compensate for challenging Australian conditions.

The broker estimates total offshore revenue will increase to around 18% in FY19 from 16% in FY18. Overweight rating. Target is $7.70. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: $2.08
If VRT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.32, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 27.20 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.3, implying annual growth of 12.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.80 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of 11.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates VRT as Neutral (3) -

Virtus has acquired Trianglen Fertility Clinic in Denmark, taking the company's Danish market share to some 15%. The broker sees it as a strong strategic fit, despite few synergies on offer.

Forecast earnings increase 5-6% from FY19. Target rises to $5.80 from $5.50, Neutral retained.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.62 Difference: $0.18
If VRT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.32, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.3, implying annual growth of 12.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.7, implying annual growth of 11.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC  WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Coal

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Overnight Price: $5.80

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

A review of Morgan Stanley's commodity deck has driven upgrades for metals and bulks while earnings estimates for lithium players are reduced. The market cap weighted downside of -6% drives the broker's industry view to In-Line from Attractive.

Morgan Stanley continues to find valuation support in Whitehaven Coal and the price target is raised to $6.50 from $5.70 as there is more potential for the bull case scenario to play out. Overweight rating. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.80 Difference: $0.7
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting downside of -12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.7, implying annual growth of 35.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of -2.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates WHC as Buy (1) -

The broker has updated its suite of commodity price forecasts. Whitehaven target rises to $6.05 from $5.50, Buy retained.

Healthy coal prices and strong operational performance has the company rolling in free cash flow, the broker notes, and this should continue into the new quarter provided the Maules Creek ramp-up progresses successfully and there are no issues at Narrabri.

Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $5.80 Difference: $0.25
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting downside of -12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.7, implying annual growth of 35.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of -2.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WSA  WESTERN AREAS NL

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $3.57

Morgan Stanley rates WSA as Underweight (5) -

A review of Morgan Stanley's commodity deck has driven upgrades for metals and bulks while earnings estimates for lithium players are reduced. The market cap weighted downside of -6% drives the broker's industry view to In-Line from Attractive.

The broker maintains an Underweight rating for Western Areas. Target is raised to $2.75 from $2.45. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.26, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 25.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.2, implying annual growth of 171.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

UBS rates WSA as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS has increased nickel price forecasts by 12% in 2018 and 6% in 2019, leading to an 82% FY19 forecast earnings upgrade and 19% FY20 upgrade for Western Areas. The broker notes the planned Odysseus project should see first production at a time global EV demand has led to higher nickel prices.

UBS upgrades to Neutral from Sell. The broker would be more positive but the share price is overvaluing either the nickel price forecast or Odysseus risked valuation or both, UBS believes. Target rises to $3.50 from $3.02.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.26, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 25.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.1.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.2, implying annual growth of 171.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
AOG AVEO Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.42
AWC ALUMINA Sell - UBS Overnight Price $2.80
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $4.29
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $4.29
Sell - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.29
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $4.29
BHP BHP BILLITON Buy - UBS Overnight Price $34.01
CCL COCA-COLA AMATIL Buy - Citi Overnight Price $9.16
CIM CIMIC GROUP Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $41.80
CSL CSL Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $193.36
EVN EVOLUTION MINING Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.51
FMG FORTESCUE Buy - UBS Overnight Price $4.42
GXY GALAXY RESOURCES Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.98
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.98
IGO INDEPENDENCE GROUP Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.18
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $5.18
ILU ILUKA RESOURCES Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $11.12
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $11.12
MGR MIRVAC Buy - Citi Overnight Price $2.18
MIN MINERAL RESOURCES Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $15.87
MQG MACQUARIE GROUP Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $125.86
MTS METCASH Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.56
NCM NEWCREST MINING Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $21.95
NST NORTHERN STAR Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $7.11
ORE OROCOBRE Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.23
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.23
OZL OZ MINERALS Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $9.41
PSQ PACIFIC SMILES GROUP Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.56
RIO RIO TINTO Buy - UBS Overnight Price $83.46
RMD RESMED Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $14.14
RRL REGIS RESOURCES Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.17
S32 SOUTH32 Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $3.61
SFR SANDFIRE Sell - UBS Overnight Price $9.16
STO SANTOS Sell - Citi Overnight Price $6.18
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $6.18
SYR SYRAH RESOURCES Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.93
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.93
TLS TELSTRA CORP Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.63
VRT VIRTUS HEALTH Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.62
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $5.62
WHC WHITEHAVEN COAL Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.80
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.80
WSA WESTERN AREAS Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.57
Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS Overnight Price $3.57
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

18

2. Accumulate

3

3. Hold

13

5. Sell

10

Friday 29 June 2018

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