Australian Broker Call

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November 02, 2021

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
WBC - Westpac Banking Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight Morgan Stanley
APA  APA GROUP

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $8.41

Macquarie rates APA as No Rating (-1) -

APA Group has signed a 44MW 15-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with The Minerals and Metals Group Pty Ltd (MMG) Ltd to supply solar to the company's nickel operations in Mt Isa.

Macquarie sees an opportunity to develop a further 44MW with the superior co-location next to its gas plants.

The broker is restricted from providing a price target and recommendation.

Current Price is $8.41. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $9.77, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 25.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 55.50 cents and EPS of 30.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AST  AUSNET SERVICES LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $2.56

Macquarie rates AST as No Rating (-1) -

AusNet Services has agreed to a scheme of arrangement with Brookfield at $2.65/share. A break fee of -$102m is payable
if the scheme is not implemented.

Separately, the analyst notes the company reports its interim result on November 11, and expects 1H earnings (EBITDA) will fall
around -4.4% to $633m. The dividend is expected to be flat.

Macquarie is currently subject to research restrictions on AusNet Services and doesn't provide a target price or rating.

Current Price is $2.56. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.04, suggesting downside of -20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.2, implying annual growth of -10.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.70 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 2.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUB  AUB GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $22.03

Macquarie rates AUB as Outperform (1) -

A readthrough of results from AUB Group's New Zealand peer Arthur J. Gallagher suggests to Macquarie its organic and acquisition growth assumptions for AUB Group are on-track.

Commentary from Arthur J. Gallagher revealed Australia and New Zealand combined grew 6%, while premium rates were up around 3-4%. In such a supportive environment, the broker retains Outperform and a $25.52 target.

Target price is $25.52 Current Price is $22.03 Difference: $3.49
If AUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.67, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 97.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.8, implying annual growth of -4.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 105.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.7, implying annual growth of 7.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CHC  CHARTER HALL GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $18.00

Credit Suisse rates CHC as Neutral (3) -

Charter Hall has upgraded FY22 guidance to "at least $0.83 per security". Credit Suisse is not surprised, as original guidance ($0.75 per security) did not contain any base assumptions for performance fees or growth in funds under management (FUM).

Moreover, there could be further upgrades as transaction activity is yet to be included. FUM has grown by $1.7bn since June 30 2021 to $54bn.

The broker revises FY22 and FY23 estimates up by 11.6% and 10.6%, increasing the target to $19.37 from $18.87. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $19.37 Current Price is $18.00 Difference: $1.37
If CHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.96, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.3, implying annual growth of -18.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.1, implying annual growth of 1.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie estimates upgraded guidance by Charter Hall Group was 2% ahead of consensus forecasts prior to the upgrade. Management upgraded FY22 earnings (OEPS) guidance by 11%, to no less than 83cps from no less than 75cps.

While the group didn't provide specific details, the analyst attributes 80% of the upgrade to performance fees. The broker lifts its target price to $20.12 from $19.98 and maintains its Outperform rating.

Target price is $20.12 Current Price is $18.00 Difference: $2.12
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.96, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 40.10 cents and EPS of 91.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.3, implying annual growth of -18.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.50 cents and EPS of 84.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.1, implying annual growth of 1.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates CHC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett lifts its FY22 EPS forecast by 6% after Charter Hall Group upgraded FY22 operating EPS guidance to “no less than” 83cps from at least 75cps. The $20 target price and Accumulate rating are unchanged.

Following a 10% valuation increase for the group's Direct Industrial Funds (DIF) 3 and 4, higher performance fees ensued, explains the analyst.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.00 Difference: $2
If CHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.96, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 40.10 cents and EPS of 87.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.3, implying annual growth of -18.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.50 cents and EPS of 86.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.1, implying annual growth of 1.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR  DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $3.96

Macquarie rates DRR as Outperform (1) -

Quarterly royalty receipts for Deterra Royalties were better than Macquarie had expected as increased volumes offset the falling iron
ore price. The beat was driven by higher-than expected realised pricing.

Upon increasing its FY22 EPS estimates by 3%, the broker maintains its Outperform rating and $5.20 target price.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $1.24
If DRR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 23.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 28.50 cents and EPS of 28.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of 63.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 29.50 cents and EPS of 29.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of -7.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELD  ELDERS LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $12.10

Citi rates ELD as Buy (1) -

A strong winter crop and higher crop input prices has Citi confident of a solid full year result from Elders, as well as considering potential upside to FY22. 

With climate models pointing to another La Nina event, Citi notes above-average spring and summer rainfall leading to good soil moisture into next year and higher commodity pricing could result in a third consecutive above-average winter crop. 

The broker expects FY21 results to be strong, but in line, and is forecasting 4% sales growth and 6% year-on-year underlying earnings growth in FY22. 

The Buy rating and target price of $13.75 are retained.

Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $12.10 Difference: $1.65
If ELD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.19, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 88.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.2, implying annual growth of 11.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 93.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.6, implying annual growth of -8.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNC  GRAINCORP LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $6.26

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects record earnings will be delivered in FY21, forecasting $324m in EBITDA and $136m in net profit.

The broker assesses the company has great leverage to another bumper winter crop and with favourable conditions continuing this should support FY22 earnings and, possibly, FY23.

GrainCorp will report its results on November 11. Outperform rating and $7.32 target maintained.

Target price is $7.32 Current Price is $6.26 Difference: $1.06
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.86, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.80 cents and EPS of 59.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.6, implying annual growth of 106.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.50 cents and EPS of 54.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of 0.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HT1  HT&E LIMITED

Out of Home Advertising

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Overnight Price: $1.85

UBS rates HT1 as Buy (1) -

UBS increases its target price for HT&E to $2.50 from $2.10 after a much less onerous than expected settlement agreement with the Australiian Tax office was reached. The Buy rating is unchanged.

The focus now turns to a potential radio ad market recovery, and the analyst forecasts radio ad market growth of 10% in the December half. This assumes the market in 2022 and 2023 returns to -5% and -4% below pre-covid levels.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.65
If HT1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of 17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG  INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $4.84

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes with driving activity almost back to pre-lockdown levels in New South Wales, Victoria and New Zealand, Insurance Australia Group's insurance margin will cease to benefit from motor savings. 

The broker highlights without the buffer provided by motor savings, the company is more open to Catastrophe and court action risk. 

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $4.80 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.84 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.6, implying annual growth of 7.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO  IGO LIMITED

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $9.74

Credit Suisse rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

September quarter nickel production was 6500t and copper production 3000t. The company also reported the first spodumene concentrate production from Greenbushes, at 268,000t.

While the average realised price was lower than Credit Suisse anticipated, contracted tonnage will be re-negotiated in coming months. The broker notes lithium peers have observed prices of US$1650/t so there could be upside to realised prices into 2022.

The broker retains an Outperform rating and envisages catalysts in the delivery and ramp up of the first battery grade lithium hydroxide in the first half of 2022. $10.70 target maintained.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $9.74 Difference: $0.96
If IGO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.24, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 30.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of -55.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 29.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.3, implying annual growth of 26.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates IGO as No Rating (-1) -

First quarter results were in line or marginally ahead of forecasts. IGO Ltd also reported production and costs for Greenbushes for the first time and spodumene production of 267,700t was 20% ahead of Macquarie's estimates.

The broker upgrades earnings forecasts to incorporate the results, lifting FY22 earnings by 3% and FY23 and FY24 by 9% and1%, respectively.

Due to research restrictions, Macquarie cannot provide a valuation at present.

Current Price is $9.74. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.24, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 34.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of -55.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 59.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.3, implying annual growth of 26.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

Production is meeting or exceeding expectations at both of IGO's sites, but costs are also higher with Morgan Stanley noting the Greenbushes project costs were 20% higher than expected. 

Greenbushes reported a 22% production beat, but costs of $310 per tonne were above the broker's forecast and cost guidance from the company's acquisition presentation.

While costs at Nova were also higher than expected for the quarter, they were within the expected full-year costs range and full-year group guidance is unchanged.

The Underweight rating and target price of $8.25 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $9.74 Difference: minus $1.49 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.24, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of -55.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.3, implying annual growth of 26.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPD  IMPEDIMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $0.19

Morgans rates IPD as Speculative Buy (1) -

After allowing for the capital raise dilution and first quarter results for ImpediMed, Morgans leaves forecasts little changed. However, the additional funds now available are thought to have somewhat de-risked the company and the target rises to $0.25 from $0.21.

The broker assesses "solid" 1Q cashflow, with total revenue up 71%. The capital raise was for $35m for existing institutional and sophisticated investors as well as a $5m SPP for eligible shareholders. The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.06
If IPD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.11.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 38.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OZL  OZ MINERALS LIMITED

Copper

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Overnight Price: $24.58

Macquarie rates OZL as Outperform (1) -

OZ Minerals remains Macquarie's preferred exposure to copper and there are several catalysts led by the Prominent Hill expansion.

The broker observes both copper and nickel prices remain resilient and have traded around near-term highs despite volatility in the market caused by uncertainties over policy.

Outperform rating and $32 target maintained.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $24.58 Difference: $7.42
If OZL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.83, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 174.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.9, implying annual growth of 151.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 225.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.0, implying annual growth of 2.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PSI  PSC INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $4.79

Macquarie rates PSI as Neutral (3) -

The company has reaffirmed FY22 guidance for underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $84-89m and underlying net profit of $54-58m at its AGM update.

Debt refinancing has been completed, which Macquarie considers positive, albeit factored into the stock. The broker also believes future acquisitions are already priced in and retains a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $4.95 from $4.00.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $0.16
If PSI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 13.30 cents and EPS of 18.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.03.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.90 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.07.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RCW  RIGHTCROWD LIMITED

Software & Services

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Overnight Price: $0.26

Morgans rates RCW as Add (1) -

Morgans maintains its Speculative Buy rating and $0.37 target price for Rightcrowd following 1Q results that revealed ongoing "healthy" revenue growth. The Add rating is maintained.

The core business has been renamed Workforce Management and has experienced increasing enquiries as both North America and Europe return to office work, explains the analyst.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.11
If RCW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.33.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 86.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM  SIMS LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $14.63

Macquarie rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

The company's joint venture partner SA Recycling (50% owned) has acquired four scrap operators in the US, with no additional capital required from Sims.

Macquarie notes, while Sims is consolidating the scrap collection and processing industry, there are complicating factors clouding the investment. There is still a risk of lower US steel prices and significant adjustments stemming from China.

The broker awaits the AGM update from Sims on November 10. Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $15.05 from $14.30.

Target price is $15.05 Current Price is $14.63 Difference: $0.42
If SGM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.28, suggesting upside of 26.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 183.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.8, implying annual growth of 69.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 147.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 133.0, implying annual growth of -31.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SIQ  SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging

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Overnight Price: $8.02

Macquarie rates SIQ as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie resumed coverage after a brief hiatus with an unchanged Neutral rating and $7.90 target as the board decided not to proceed with discussions on the proposal from TPG and Potentia Capital.

The broker assesses the company is on track to deliver a 2021 performance in line with consensus although suspects the impact of supply chain constraints could extend into mid 2022. Moreover, the level of expense management required to achieve expectations is unclear.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $8.02 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If SIQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.63, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 51.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.7, implying annual growth of 59.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 46.10 cents and EPS of 54.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.1, implying annual growth of 8.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SWM  SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV

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Overnight Price: $0.52

Credit Suisse rates SWM as Outperform (1) -

Seven West Media will buy all of the Prime Media (((PRT)) assets for -$131.9m, returning to a transaction last contemplated in 2019.

The transaction is subject to 50% approval required from shareholders (Seven West has 14.9%) yet Credit Suisse assesses there is limited risk of the transaction not proceeding.

The broker expects it will be highly accretive at around 8-9% in the first year post completion. Outperform rating and target price of $0.80 retained.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.28
If SWM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.81, suggesting upside of 46.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of -54.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 9.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SWM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett likes the broader reach Seven West Media will attain after entering into a conditional agreement to acquire the business and related assets of Prime Media Group ((PRT)).

The analyst sees potential upside for margins as costs are removed and the partnership unfolds, and believes synergies will come in at the top end of the targeted $5-10m range. The broker lifts its price target to $0.70 from $0.65 and retains its Buy rating.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.18
If SWM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.81, suggesting upside of 46.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of -54.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SWM as Buy (1) -

UBS believes Seven West Media has made a strategically sound decision regarding the Prime Media Group ((PRT)) acquisition. A conditional share sale agreement to acquire all the businesses and related assets for a 100% equity value of $132m was made.

Net of acquired cash, cash distributions and Seven West Media's 14.9% shareholding, the transaction is expected to cost -$72m. The analyst considers the deal accretive and increases FY22 and FY23 EPS forecasts by 6% and 8%. The target rises to $0.95 from $0.90.

The buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.43
If SWM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.81, suggesting upside of 46.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of -54.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC  WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks

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Overnight Price: $23.78

Citi rates WBC as Buy (1) -

Citi expects the big story in Westpac Banking's FY21 results will be the reported weak exit net interest margin of 1.91-1.93%, a material miss on an expected 1.98-2.00%. The broker notes this is likely an inversion of replicating portfolio momentum but awaits further detail.

Full year cash earnings of $5,352m missed Citi's forecasts by -1-2%, driven by a -6-7% miss on core earnings. Costs of -$10.9bn were higher than expected, and while cost guidance for FY22 was not provided, the company reiterated an $8bn cost base target for FY24. 

The Buy rating remains untouched but the target price tumbles to $27.50 from $30.00 on reduced forecasts. Citi maintains the shares look cheap.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $23.78 Difference: $3.72
If WBC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.17, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 140.00 cents and EPS of 147.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 155.00 cents and EPS of 190.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.7, implying annual growth of 20.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates WBC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Westpac Banking surprised Credit Suisse, with "unprecedented" margin re-basing. The broker assesses the bank continues to re-position its mortgage portfolio wherein lies most of the downside risks.

Upside risks are likely to come from a steepening of the yield curve and higher interest rates. Target is reduced to $25.20 from $28.00 and the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $25.20 Current Price is $23.78 Difference: $1.42
If WBC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.17, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 113.00 cents and EPS of 161.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 132.00 cents and EPS of 195.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.7, implying annual growth of 20.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie suggests margin pressures will weigh on Westpac's earnings in the short term and considers the risk/reward balanced.

The valuation appears attractive on a medium-term view yet with continuing challenges in the core business and a lack of clarity, the broker suspects the discount will remain.

Moreover the current return on equity is below peers because of elevated expenses. The broker reduces the target to $25.50 from $26.50, consistent with earnings changes. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $23.78 Difference: $1.72
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.17, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 122.00 cents and EPS of 159.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 130.00 cents and EPS of 174.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.7, implying annual growth of 20.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

A poor second half result and worse-than-expected outlook on FY22 margins and expenses has impacted Morgan Stanley's confidence in Westpac Banking's ability to execute a successful turnaround in the next year. 

The company reported a -10 basis point margin decline in the second half. With the broker noting decline acceleration in recent months it is now forecasting an approximate -18 basis point margin decline in FY22. 

The rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight and the target price decreases to $24.80 from $28.90. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $24.80 Current Price is $23.78 Difference: $1.02
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.17, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 129.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 167.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.7, implying annual growth of 20.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates WBC as Add (1) -

Westpac Bank's FY21 cash earnings were 2.2% better than Morgans expected due to a larger than forecast credit loss provision release, which outweighed a very soft net interest margin. The analyst didnt like the handling of the margin-volume tradeoff in FY21.

A $3.5bn off-market share buyback was announced and the analyst forecasts another of the same amount in FY23. Despite a downgrade to EPS forecasts the broker's target rises to $30.50 from $29.50 on a future reduction of the annual cost base to $8.25bn. Add retained.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $23.78 Difference: $5.72
If WBC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.17, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 123.00 cents and EPS of 182.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 162.00 cents and EPS of 231.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.7, implying annual growth of 20.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates WBC as Hold (3) -

Westpac Bank's FY21 cash net profit was only a slight miss versus Ord Minnett's forecast, while revenue was in-line. The full year dividend of $1.18cps beat the expected $1.16cps. However, of greatest concern was  -9 basis point fall in the net interest margin (NIM) half-on-half.

In the broker's view, the bank strove to get back to system mortgage growth at all costs, which had an outsized impact on lending margins. The risk/reward balance is considered unfavourable and the target price falls to $24.50 from $27. The Hold rating is unchanged.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $23.78 Difference: $0.72
If WBC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.17, suggesting upside of 13.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 153.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 122.00 cents and EPS of 168.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 187.7, implying annual growth of 20.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WSA  WESTERN AREAS LIMITED

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $3.05

Morgans rates WSA as Hold (3) -

Morgans notes Western Area's 1Q quarter production revealed a sharp reduction in nickel tonnes mined and recovered, which highlights increasing production variability risk. The miss was due to lower head grades at Flying Fox and lower nickel recovery.

Despite this, the broker lifts its target price to $3.08 from $3 as a reduction in Forrestania valuation was offset by a lift in Cosmos (as
development progresses) and in the company's listed investments.

The analyst cautions the share price is at the behest of the due diligence process underway with IGO Ltd ((IGO)). The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.08 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: $0.03
If WSA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.12, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 305.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 101.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.3, implying annual growth of -49.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 89.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AST AusNet Services $2.58 Macquarie N/A 1.95 -100.00%
CHC Charter Hall $18.59 Credit Suisse 19.37 18.87 2.65%
Macquarie 20.12 19.98 0.70%
HT1 HT&E $1.85 UBS 2.50 2.10 19.05%
IPD Impedimed $0.18 Morgans 0.25 0.21 19.05%
PSI PSC Insurance $4.55 Macquarie 4.95 4.10 20.73%
SGM Sims $14.43 Macquarie 15.05 18.20 -17.31%
SWM Seven West Media $0.55 Ord Minnett 0.70 0.65 7.69%
UBS 0.95 0.90 5.56%
WBC Westpac Banking $23.13 Citi 27.50 30.00 -8.33%
Credit Suisse 25.20 28.00 -10.00%
Macquarie 25.50 26.50 -3.77%
Morgan Stanley 24.80 29.80 -16.78%
Ord Minnett 24.50 27.00 -9.26%
WSA Western Areas $2.94 Morgans 3.08 3.00 2.67%
Summaries
APA APA Group No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.41
AST AusNet Services No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.56
AUB AUB Group Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $22.03
CHC Charter Hall Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $18.00
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $18.00
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $18.00
DRR Deterra Royalties Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.96
ELD Elders Buy - Citi Overnight Price $12.10
GNC GrainCorp Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.26
HT1 HT&E Buy - UBS Overnight Price $1.85
IAG Insurance Australia Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.84
IGO IGO Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $9.74
No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $9.74
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $9.74
IPD Impedimed Speculative Buy - Morgans Overnight Price $0.19
OZL OZ Minerals Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $24.58
PSI PSC Insurance Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.79
RCW RightCrowd Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.26
SGM Sims Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $14.63
SIQ Smartgroup Corp Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.02
SWM Seven West Media Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $0.52
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.52
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $0.52
WBC Westpac Banking Buy - Citi Overnight Price $23.78
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $23.78
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $23.78
Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $23.78
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $23.78
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $23.78
WSA Western Areas Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $3.05
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

15

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

10

5. Sell

1

Tuesday 02 November 2021

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