Australian Broker Call

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September 23, 2021

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AGL - AGL Energy Upgrade to Buy from Hold Ord Minnett
BAP - Bapcor Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
AGL  AGL ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $5.68

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

With shares now trading below the estimated value for AGL Australia (Retail) alone, Ord Minnett upgrades its recommendation on AGL Energy to Buy from Hold, while the target price reduces to $7.55 from $7.80.

The company remains committed to separating its business into retail and generation (Accel Energy) by mid-2022.

While the broker sees potential for strong corporate appeal in AGL Australia, there's likely to be very little interest in Accel Energy. This is because of its exposure to coal, its leverage to wholesale prices and its sizeable rehabilitation costs, explains the analyst.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $7.55 Current Price is $5.68 Difference: $1.87
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.34, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.3, implying annual growth of 14.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALQ  ALS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $12.72

Macquarie rates ALQ as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes the strong momentum in the first quarter should continue, based on the key indicators. In particular, Latin America has shown a strong improvement.

At its AGM the company also noted tight markets, expecting robust demand will underpin pricing in FY22.

The EUR145m acquisition of a 49% stake in Nuvisan is expected to close shortly and Macquarie suspects, going forward, bolt-on acquisition potential in life sciences will remain in focus. Outperform rating maintained. Target is $13.80.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $12.72 Difference: $1.08
If ALQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.13, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 31.10 cents and EPS of 51.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.2, implying annual growth of 43.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 34.50 cents and EPS of 57.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.4, implying annual growth of 8.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APE  EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $15.62

UBS rates APE as Buy (1) -

Supply constraints amid ongoing delays in global semiconductor and components manufacturing mean optimal conditions for Eagers Automotive are likely to continue into 2022, UBS asserts.

The broker has lower revenue factored in for 2022 compared with 2021 and a material drop in pre-tax profit margins.

If it turns out the company can generate similar revenue and margins in 2022 to what UBS is forecasting for 2021 this implies 42% upside to net profit estimates for 2022.

Buy retained. Target is $18.35.

Target price is $18.35 Current Price is $15.62 Difference: $2.73
If APE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.35, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 116.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.6, implying annual growth of 90.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 79.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.5, implying annual growth of -17.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BAP  BAPCOR LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $7.22

Citi rates BAP as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi considers the risk/reward trade-off has become favourable now the share price has declined substantially from its August peak. The emergence from lockdowns in NSW and Victoria should start from October and the company obtain a benefit.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target raised to $8.25 from $8.20.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.22 Difference: $1.03
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.76, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 39.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.9, implying annual growth of 8.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.10 cents and EPS of 43.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.5, implying annual growth of 9.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL  BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $21.74

Citi rates BSL as Buy (1) -

BlueScope Steel has provided details on its decarbonisation initiatives although reiterated the reline of number 6 blast furnace will be with conventional technology. The company observes demand remains robust.

BlueScope Steel does not believe electric-arc furnace flat products will replace blast furnace steelmaking any time soon, given limited supply of scrap in Australia along with the dominance of haematite iron ore.

Even as the current rally runs out of steam, Citi believes the market is underestimating the structural improvement in the steel industry that has happened over recent years.

Globally, the broker envisages utilisation rates increasing to the high 80% levels by the end of the decade as China reduces its exports. Citi maintains a Buy rating and $27.50 target.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $21.74 Difference: $5.76
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.28, suggesting upside of 30.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 462.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 515.4, implying annual growth of 117.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 247.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 307.3, implying annual growth of -40.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLV  CLOVER CORPORATION LIMITED

Health & Nutrition

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Overnight Price: $1.47

Ord Minnett rates CLV as Buy (1) -

Clover Corp's FY21 result was weaker than Ord Minnett expected. Continued volatility in the infant formula market resulted in a -10% miss for forecast total revenue as border closures from covid-19 limited daigou trade. The target price falls to $1.90 from $2.43.

There is a compelling growth story over FY23-24 as the company builds sales and marketing presence after the Chinese minimum omega-3 fatty acids legislation has been approved, explains the analyst.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.43
If CLV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.74.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.34.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU  COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $16.33

Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reminds us Computershare has the greatest interest rate exposure under its coverage and rising interest rates in the US and UK could boost margin income. The potential benefit is not baked into the broker's forecasts as yet.

Additionally, higher rates are a tailwind for mortgage servicing, as they dampen refinance activity and increase foreclosure opportunities. The latter is considered a second half 2022 story, given the moratorium on foreclosures until December 2021 in the US.

The Overweight rating and $17.90 target price is unchanged. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $16.33 Difference: $1.57
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.36, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 52.67 cents and EPS of 65.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 53.21 cents and EPS of 66.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.1, implying annual growth of 14.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $15.37

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes Fortescue Metals Group shares are oversold and offer an attractive buying opportunity over the medium term. Under a spot scenario with a US$68/t realised iron ore price, versus a 10-year average of US$89/t, a $24 per share valuation is generated.

The analyst points out spot iron ore has been rising intraday due to positive developments around the Evergrande situation in China. The Buy rating and $26 target price are retained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $15.37 Difference: $10.63
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.74, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 403.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 332.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 21.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 220.4, implying annual growth of -45.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 187.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 12.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG  INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $4.87

Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -

While the extent of damage from Victoria's quake won't be known for some time, Morgan Stanley suspects there has been a modest initial impact. Insurance Australia Group's maximum event retention is $169m.

The broker retains its Equal-weight rating and $4.80 target price. Industry view: In-line. The analyst notes the BOM is predicting a 50% chance of a La Nina this summer, which may lead to more wet and wild weather.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.5, implying annual growth of 8.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates IAG as Accumulate (2) -

After reviewing potential economic losses as a result of the earthquake that struck Victoria, Ord Minnett believes the overall cost is likely to be around -US$100m. The broker doesn't adjust any of its forecasts.

The analyst considers Suncorp Group ((SUN)) would have greater risk than Insurance Australia Group or QBE Insurance Group ((QBE)) if it is a large event, via its higher maximum event retention. The Accumulate rating and $5.35 target price are retained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: $0.48
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.50, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.5, implying annual growth of 8.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHC  JAPARA HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors

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Overnight Price: $1.39

Morgans rates JHC as Hold (3) -

Morgans advises shareholders to vote in accordance with the Board recommendation, which is to accept the bid for shares at $1.40 by Little Company of Mary Health Care. An independent expert concluded the bid is fair and reasonable in the absence of a greater offer.

The broker maintains its Hold rating and $1.40 target price.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.01
If JHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting downside of -14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 139.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 347.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.0, implying annual growth of 400.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 69.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KSL  KINA SECURITIES LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments

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Overnight Price: $0.88

Morgans rates KSL as Add (1) -

In what Morgans describes as a disappointing outcome, Kina Securities and Westpac Bank ((WBC)) have mutually agreed to terminate the agreement for the purchase of Westpac’s Asia Pacific businesses. The broker maintains its Add rating.

After allowing for transaction costs and lost deal revenue, management guided to an FY21 result in-line with FY20. The analyst makes similar allowances for costs, lifts FY21 underlying EPS by 2%, and makes no changes to FY22 EPS. The target falls to $1.28 from $1.31.

Target price is $1.28 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.4
If KSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 33.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.64.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 40.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.19.

This company reports in PGK. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $46.64

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Significant potential has been found in the analysis of the Lockyer Deep-1 well and should flow tests prove successful Mineral Resources can ratchet up its decarbonisation intentions.

The next step is to complete the well for production tests to assess the potential recoverable volumes. Macquarie is encouraged by the success so far but does not include any value for the well or the switch to LNG in its base case.

Outperform rating and $80 target maintained.

Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $46.64 Difference: $33.36
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $58.52, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 281.00 cents and EPS of 616.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 689.7, implying annual growth of 2.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 308.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 247.00 cents and EPS of 552.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 480.1, implying annual growth of -30.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $4.40

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett increases its target price to $4.65 from $4.60 on revised electricity price forecasts, which have raised near-term earnings forecasts.

With no discernable upcoming catalysts and the stock trading close to the broker's revised valuation, the Hold rating is unchanged.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $0.25
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.92, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.8, implying annual growth of 45.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OZL  OZ MINERALS LIMITED

Copper

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Overnight Price: $22.37

Macquarie rates OZL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie envisages upside from higher throughput at West Musgrave, regardless of the cost pressures. A total of 47.5km of infill drilling has been completed and the company assesses the results have improved confidence in the orebody.

Work on the process plant design is 70% complete and OZ Minerals has completed a downstream processing study for the nickel concentrate.

West Musgrave accounts for 17% of Macquarie's valuation and the formal approval of the project is expected to be a key catalyst. Outperform rating and $32 target maintained.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $22.37 Difference: $9.63
If OZL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.55, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 180.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.9, implying annual growth of 159.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 220.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.2, implying annual growth of -5.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates OZL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes OZ Minerals is trading close to fair value after allowing for potential upside from partnerships and expansions at West Musgrave. For the latter, management has flagged a slight delay in the final investment decision to second half 2022 from 2022.

A planned capacity increase could lower operating costs though would add to capex, explains the analyst. The Equal-weight rating and $23.50 target price are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $22.37 Difference: $1.13
If OZL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.55, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 171.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.9, implying annual growth of 159.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 162.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.2, implying annual growth of -5.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE  QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $11.20

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Accumulate (2) -

After reviewing potential economic losses as a result of the earthquake that struck Victoria, Ord Minnett believes the overall cost is likely to be around -US$100m. The broker doesn't adjust any of its forecasts.

The analyst considers Suncorp Group ((SUN)) would have greater risk than Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) or QBE Insurance Group if it is a large event, via its higher maximum event retention. The Accumulate rating and $14.55 target price are retained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $14.55 Current Price is $11.20 Difference: $3.35
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.94, suggesting upside of 20.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 43.90 cents and EPS of 78.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 55.87 cents and EPS of 91.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.8, implying annual growth of 23.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32  SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining

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Overnight Price: $3.34

Credit Suisse rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Alcoa will recommence production at Alumar in Brazil, having completed a feasibility study. Credit Suisse suspects South32, which owns 40%, is yet to obtain the full details of the study and complete its work.

The broker notes the Alumar smelter was at the top of the cost curve when it was idled in 2015 and likes the potential, given this is "green" aluminium.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is $3.80.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: $0.46
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.71, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 18.80 cents and EPS of 31.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.06 cents and EPS of 35.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCG  SCENTRE GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.95

Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Equal-weight (3) -

After a series of recent takeover offers for listed Australian infrastructure companies, Morgan Stanley strategists undertake a comparison of recent takeover multiples to where REIT's are trading. This is considered appropriate as both sectors contain bond-proxy-type stocks.

Scentre Group is only one of three stocks in the REIT sector under the broker's coverage that has relevant multiples trading below the infrastructure takeover multiples. The Equal-Weight rating and $2.90 target price are maintained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.70 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 22.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR  SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper

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Overnight Price: $6.22

Credit Suisse rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Sandfire Resources has released the prefeasibility study on the expansion of the Motheo copper project in Botswana. Credit Suisse considers the economics compelling and the revised scope includes the A4 satellite. Capital expenditure forecasts have risen to US$366m.

The broker revises assumptions and now values Motheo at US$380m or $2.84 a share. Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $7.70 from $8.55.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: $1.48
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.57, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 28.58 cents and EPS of 110.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.3, implying annual growth of 22.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.09 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 622.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of -98.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 259.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Sandfire Resources has a maiden reserve for the A4 deposit which confirms the economics of the expansion. The company expects the deposit will lift peak production at Motheo to 60,000tpa of copper in concentrate in FY27 and FY28.

Macquarie lifts FY23 copper production forecasts by 21% and FY24-FY25 by 58% and 37%, respectively. The larger-scale development means capital costs will increase by 40%, although this increase is - 10% lower than the broker had anticipated.

Outperform retained. Target is raised to $10.60 from $10.20.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: $4.38
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.57, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 119.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.3, implying annual growth of 22.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of -98.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 259.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Overweight (1) -

Management has concluded that by including the higher-grade A4 deposit in a 5.2Mtpa Moteo Hub strategy, pre-tax net present value lifts by 116%. Hence, there is upside to Morgan Stanley's 70% risked value of $191m ($1.07/share) which does not include A4.

The maiden A4 reserve is 9.7Mt at 1.2% for 114kt Cu. There's a favourable 85% conversion of copper in the unchanged resource, explains the analyst. The Overweight and $7.95 target price are maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: $1.73
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.57, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 100.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.3, implying annual growth of 22.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 88.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.4, implying annual growth of -98.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 259.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGP  STOCKLAND

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $4.71

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

After a series of recent takeover offers for listed Australian infrastructure companies, Morgan Stanley strategists undertake a comparison of recent takeover multiples to where REIT's are trading. This is considered appropriate as both sectors contain bond-proxy-type stocks.

Stockland is only one of three stocks in the REIT sector under the broker's coverage that has relevant multiples trading below the infrastructure takeover multiples. Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating, $5 target and In-Line industry view.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.71 Difference: $0.29
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.83, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 26.60 cents and EPS of 35.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.0, implying annual growth of -28.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.90 cents and EPS of 37.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.5, implying annual growth of 4.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLK  SEALINK TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $8.89

Macquarie rates SLK as Neutral (3) -

A newly incorporated joint venture will hold the Westbourne Park London bus operations and Sealink Travel Group will hold a 12.5% interest in the JV - RATP Dev London Transit (RDLT). This will operate on a stand-alone basis and SeaLink will have no obligation to contribute further capital.

Macquarie reiterates a Neutral rating, believing the joint venture will allow the business to retain some resources in London to pursue organic growth while income from leasing Westbourne Park to the JV will support overheads. Target is steady at $8.80.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $8.89 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If SLK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.00, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 32.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.0, implying annual growth of 96.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.1, implying annual growth of 23.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates SLK as Buy (1) -

SeaLink Travel has entered a joint venture with larger London bus companies for its West London operations and will hold a 12.5% stake in the entity, RDLT, retaining ownership of the depot that will be sub-leased to RDLT.

UBS believes the joint venture will help address a lack of scale and revenue growth for SeaLink Travel, improving the commerciality of its operations.

Given the shared operating benefits of the joint venture, UBS expects cash flow will roughly break even upon completion of the deal. Buy rating and $10.50 target maintained.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.89 Difference: $1.61
If SLK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.00, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.0, implying annual growth of 96.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.1, implying annual growth of 23.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN  SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $12.17

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Equal-weight (3) -

While the extent of damage from Victoria's quake won't be known for some time, Morgan Stanley feels there has been a modest initial impact. Suncorp Group's's maximum event retention is $200m.

The broker retains its Equal-weight rating and $11.90 target price. Industry view: In-line. The analyst notes the BOM is predicting a 50% chance of a La Nina this summer, which may lead to more wet and wild weather.

Target price is $11.90 Current Price is $12.17 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.42, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.6, implying annual growth of -7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.3, implying annual growth of 11.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

After reviewing potential economic losses as a result of the earthquake that struck Victoria, Ord Minnett believes the overall cost is likely to be around -US$100m. The broker doesn't adjust any of its forecasts.

The analyst considers Suncorp Group would have greater risk than Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) or QBE Insurance Group ((QBE)) if it is a large event, via its higher maximum event retention. The Hold rating and $14.21 target price are retained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $14.21 Current Price is $12.17 Difference: $2.04
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.42, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.6, implying annual growth of -7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.3, implying annual growth of 11.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VCX  VICINITY CENTRES

REITs

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Overnight Price: $1.68

Morgan Stanley rates VCX as Underweight (5) -

After a series of recent takeover offers for listed Australian infrastructure companies, Morgan Stanley strategists undertake a comparison of recent takeover multiples to where REIT's are trading. This is considered appropriate as both sectors contain bond-proxy-type stocks.

Vicinity Centres is only one of three stocks in the REIT sector under the broker's coverage that has relevant multiples trading below the infrastructure takeover multiples. Underweight rating retained. Price target is steady at $1.59. Industry view is: In-Line.

Target price is $1.59 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.64, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 13.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of 21.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPR  WAYPOINT REIT LIMITED

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.74

Morgans rates WPR as Add (1) -

After a medium-term notes issuance, the REIT has upgraded 2021 distributable EPS guidance to 15.72-15.80cps from 15.72cps. The $200m of fixed-rate 7-year Notes were priced at a coupon of 2.4% and will be used to partially repay an existing debt facility.

The analyst notes the portfolio of petrol stations is well placed with 99.4% of fuel income contractually secured until May 2026. It's assumed capital management initiatives will occur in the fourth quarter 2021. The Add rating and $3 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.26
If WPR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.80 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of -55.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.30 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of 1.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AGL AGL Energy $5.98 Ord Minnett 7.55 7.80 -3.21%
BAP Bapcor $7.57 Citi 8.25 8.20 0.61%
CLV Clover $1.48 Ord Minnett 1.90 2.37 -19.83%
KSL Kina Securities $0.90 Morgans 1.28 1.31 -2.29%
MIN Mineral Resources $47.99 Macquarie 80.00 79.00 1.27%
ORG Origin Energy $4.48 Ord Minnett 4.65 4.60 1.09%
OZL OZ Minerals $23.14 Morgan Stanley 23.50 25.00 -6.00%
SFR Sandfire Resources $6.22 Credit Suisse 7.70 8.55 -9.94%
Macquarie 10.60 10.20 3.92%
Summaries
AGL AGL Energy Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.68
ALQ ALS Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $12.72
APE Eagers Automotive Buy - UBS Overnight Price $15.62
BAP Bapcor Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $7.22
BSL BlueScope Steel Buy - Citi Overnight Price $21.74
CLV Clover Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.47
CPU Computershare Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $16.33
FMG Fortescue Metals Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $15.37
IAG Insurance Australia Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.87
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.87
JHC Japara Healthcare Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.39
KSL Kina Securities Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.88
MIN Mineral Resources Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $46.64
ORG Origin Energy Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.40
OZL OZ Minerals Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $22.37
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $22.37
QBE QBE Insurance Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $11.20
S32 South32 Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.34
SCG Scentre Group Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.95
SFR Sandfire Resources Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $6.22
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.22
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $6.22
SGP Stockland Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.71
SLK SeaLink Travel Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.89
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $8.89
SUN Suncorp Group Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $12.17
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $12.17
VCX Vicinity Centres Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.68
WPR Waypoint REIT Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.74
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

19

2. Accumulate

2

3. Hold

7

5. Sell

1

Thursday 23 September 2021

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