Australian Broker Call

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September 23, 2022

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1). Stocks highlighted in RED have seen additional reporting since the prior update of this Report.

Last Updated: 10:28 AM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AIZ - Air New Zealand Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
QUB - Qube Holdings Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
AIZ  AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $0.65

Macquarie rates AIZ as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Air New Zealand has suggested a strong first half return to profitability, guiding to profit before tax of NZ$200-275m. Macquarie's previous estimate had the airline delivering NZ$46m for the period, but strong forward sales in the first three months of the year underpins company guidance.

Guidance assumes jet fuel price of US$130 per barrel, with pricing currently US$115 per barrel, but Macquarie highlights pricing volatility does pose a threat to recovery. The broker expects high fuel costs to drive more rigid ticket pricing, and predicts a 70% full year skew to the first half as a result.

Earnings per share forecasts are increased 299% and 1% for FY23 and FY24. The rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target price decreases to NZ81c from NZ86c.

Current Price is $0.63. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.96.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.77 cents and EPS of 8.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.25.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUB  AUB GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $20.01

Macquarie rates AUB as No Rating (-1) -

Drawing readthroughs from AUB Group's competitor Arthur J Gallagher, Macquarie highlights property and casual insurance (P&C) premiums have continued to increase across all of Arthur J Gallagher's major geographies.

The broker draws attention to Australia, up 15% but up more than 20% for property insurance premiums, and New Zealand, up more than 10%. Arthur J Gallagher sees similar market conditions underpinning these increases to continue beyond 2023.

Macquarie remains on research restrictions and has provided no rating or target price.

Current Price is $19.21. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $25.15, suggesting upside of 30.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 106.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.8, implying annual growth of -30.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 124.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.3, implying annual growth of 22.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKW  BRICKWORKS LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $21.77

Citi rates BKW as Buy (1) -

Following Brickworks' sizeable full year beat to Citi's expectations, the broker has flagged both near-term and longer-term potential upside to the company's outlook.

While the broker sees the likelihood of Brickworks repeating its strong contribution from development profits as less likely, with the higher number of completions unlikely to reoccur near-term, Citi does see upside to near-term property earnings given strong rental growth.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $28.00 from $26.00.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $21.42 Difference: $6.58
If BKW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.80, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 242.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 176.7, implying annual growth of -68.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 147.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.2, implying annual growth of -11.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates BKW as Neutral (3) -

Brickworks has delivered a better than expected full year result according to Macquarie. Property-related transactions were again a highlight for the broker, and the development pipeline remains key to income production moving forward.

Less positively, Macquarie finds the outlook for Brickworks' Building Products to be getting murkier, with front-end residential sales weakening and dragging on operations in both Australia and North America.

Earnings per share forecasts are lowered -8.1%, -9.3% and -6.1%, largely on slowing Building Products product activity domestically. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $22.80 from $22.90.

Target price is $22.80 Current Price is $21.42 Difference: $1.38
If BKW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.80, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 158.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 176.7, implying annual growth of -68.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 156.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.2, implying annual growth of -11.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates BKW as Add (1) -

Following solid FY22 results for Brickworks, Morgans increases its target to $24 from $23 and reiterates the opportunity for investors to buy the company's quality businesses well below replacement value. The Add rating is retained.

The target increases on the back of increased earnings forecasts, along with a mark-to-market of the WH Soul Pattinson ((SOL)) interest, explains the analyst.

The broker highlights noteworthy growth in revenue and margin for the Building products (US) division. Margins improved across both the US and Australian building product divisions.

For the Australian division, price rises across most business units offset supply chain/inflation pressures, explains Morgans.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $21.42 Difference: $2.58
If BKW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.80, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 159.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 176.7, implying annual growth of -68.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 167.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.2, implying annual growth of -11.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates BKW as Buy (1) -

FY22 underlying profit for Brickworks was a 12.3% beat versus Ord Minnett's forecast. The Property segment was considered a standout with earnings (EBIT) of $644m, up from $253m previously. The target price rises to $29.90 from $27.50.

The broker expects earnings from a combination of a strong pipeline of work from housing activity in Australia and improving non-
residential construction activity in the US. Opportunities via the company's Property operations will also assits, suggests the analyst.

The Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $29.90 Current Price is $21.42 Difference: $8.48
If BKW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.80, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 147.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 176.7, implying annual growth of -68.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 153.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.2, implying annual growth of -11.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL  BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $15.99

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Buy (1) -

At an inaugural ESG briefing day, BlueScope Steel noted the lack of firmed and affordable renewable energy necessary for the production of green hydrogen is hampering decarbonisation efforts.

Management explained the path to net zero relies on a number of emerging technologies. These include the supply of hydrogen from renewable sources and carbon capture, utilisation and storage.

Ord Minnett retains its Buy rating and $22 target price.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $15.67 Difference: $6.33
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.99, suggesting upside of 34.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 250.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 251.0, implying annual growth of -56.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 284.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.8, implying annual growth of -17.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates BSL as Buy (1) -

Following site tours taking in steelworks at Port Kembla and Springhill, UBS came away thinking BlueScope Steel is adopting the right incremental-change approach to ESG. Breakthrough technologies are thought to be unlikely prior to 2030.

Also, the broker notes that while Colorbond remains the prized asset, other product-specific growth drivers like Truecore and TruSpec continue to attain rapid market share growth.

The Buy rating and $22.60 target are unchanged.

Target price is $22.60 Current Price is $15.67 Difference: $6.93
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.99, suggesting upside of 34.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 218.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 251.0, implying annual growth of -56.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 156.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.8, implying annual growth of -17.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BUB  BUBS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Dairy

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Overnight Price: $0.52

Citi rates BUB as Buy (1) -

Citi feels permanent market access in the US is now more likely for Bubs Australia, following FDA comments around longer-term ambitions to diversify the US infant milk formula market, which includes admitting new entrants.

The broker sees material upside to its FY23 sales forecasts should market access for Bubs Australia be extended past November this year.

The Buy rating and $0.84 target are retained.

Target price is $0.84 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.33
If BUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 63.75.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 127.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COL  COLES GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $16.60

Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -

Coles Group has confirmed the $300m sale of its fuel and convenience business to Viva Energy ((VEA)). Citi sees strategic sense in the move, noting competitor Woolworths Group ((WOW)) has also exited from Petrol.

Citi expects the sale will allow Coles Group to focus on improving its food and liquor business, and that sale proceeds will be invested into the business. The broker estimates the extra balance sheet capacity could support an additional 100 stores, and that an enhanced store renewal program could lift sales growth and recover lost market share.

The Buy rating and target price of $20.10 are retained.

Target price is $20.10 Current Price is $16.34 Difference: $3.76
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.45, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 87.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.4, implying annual growth of 3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 93.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.2, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates COL as Neutral (3) -

Coles Group has agreed to the divestment of its Coles Express fuel retail network to Viva Energy ((VEA)) for $300m, a move Credit Suisse notes has little materiality to profit.

The broker expects the sale will allow Coles Group to refocus on more financially sustainable convenience strategies in its supermarket business, while also improving the company's sustainability credentials through decreased exposure to fuel and tobacco sales.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $18.59 from $18.62.

Target price is $18.59 Current Price is $16.34 Difference: $2.25
If COL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.45, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 70.44 cents and EPS of 85.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.4, implying annual growth of 3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 73.94 cents and EPS of 89.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.2, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates COL as Outperform (1) -

Coles Group will sell its petrol station business to Viva Energy ((VEA)) for what Macquarie described as an "underwhelming" $300m. The sale will see Coles Group shed $816m in lease liabilities from its balance sheet, and is expected to complete in the second half.

As per the agreement, Coles Group and Viva Energy will continue a strategic partnership, allowing customers to continue to access its 4c per litre fuel dockets and Flybuys program benefits. Coles Group will also remain a wholesaler to Viva Energy's convenience business. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $18.70 from $18.90. 

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $16.34 Difference: $2.36
If COL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.45, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 63.90 cents and EPS of 79.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.4, implying annual growth of 3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 65.60 cents and EPS of 81.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.2, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates COL as Add (1) -

Morgans believes the sale of Coles Group's Express business for $300m will free up significant balance sheet capacity to allow increased focus on the core Supermarkets and Liquor businesses.

As the sale to Viva Energy ((VEA)) is conditional upon regulatory approval, the broker leaves forecasts unchanged and retains its Add rating and $20 target price.

For context, the analyst points out the Express business only represented 2% of FY22 group earnings (EBIT) and provided the lowest return on capital in the group.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $16.34 Difference: $3.66
If COL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.45, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 79.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.4, implying annual growth of 3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.2, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates COL as Lighten (4) -

The divestment of the Coles Group convenience business to Viva Energy ((VEA)) for $300m will be -2.6% dilutive to Ord Minnett's FY24 EPS forecast. The target price is lowered to $15.80 from $16.80.

While the business represents just 3% of the Coles Group valuation, the broker also lowers earnings forecasts on an increased D&A outlook for supermarkets in light of a general step-up in capital expenditure. Lighten.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $16.34 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.45, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 77.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.4, implying annual growth of 3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 80.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.2, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates COL as Neutral (3) -

UBS feels Coles Group has placed a priority on certainty and materiality after the announcement of a binding agreement to sell its fuel and convenience business to Viva Energy ((VEA)) for $300m. Coles Group had previously indicated full ownership would be attained in 2029.

Coles Group's decision to terminate early, suggests to the analyst less confidence in a fuel volume recovery, convenience upside and the optionality of the 710 stores.

The price target falls to $17.50 from $18.00, while the Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $16.34 Difference: $1.16
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.45, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 80.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.4, implying annual growth of 3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 85.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.2, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $281.14

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating and $323 target price for CSL after reviewing the latest plasma industry data. Industry View: In-line.

The broker's plasma collection centre data show the US and EU centres rollout for CSL remains strong and showed a 6.9% year-on-year rise for August.

The analyst feels the company's valuation is becoming attractive with plasma collection volumes accelerating and a margin recovery underway.

Target price is $323.00 Current Price is $278.14 Difference: $44.86
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $324.80, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 454.71 cents and EPS of 772.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 845.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 392.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 579.03 cents and EPS of 954.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1041.0, implying annual growth of 23.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 476.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWY  CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $2.75

Ord Minnett rates CWY as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights recent media speculation that Cleanaway Waste Management has submitted an indicative offer for the Queensland post-collections and landfill business, BMI Group.

According to the speculation, BMI group generated $70m of operating earnings (EBITDA) in FY23 and attracted a bid of more than $700m.

The Buy rating and $3.10 target are retained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.4
If CWY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.9, implying annual growth of 98.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of 22.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $16.54

UBS rates FMG as Sell (5) -

Fortescue Metals intends to spend US$6.2bn on its pathway to decarbonise scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030, a level of spending which UBS finds reasonable.

According to the analyst, returns look attractive at current estimated capital and operating cost drivers.

Separately, concerns over ongoing covid lockdowns in China and property keeps the broker Sell-rated with an unchanged $15.80 target price.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $16.76 Difference: minus $0.96 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.34, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 238.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Forecast for FY24:

UBS forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 159.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 182.5, implying annual growth of -29.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FSF  FONTERRA SHAREHOLDERS FUND

Dairy

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Overnight Price: $3.09

Macquarie rates FSF as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie assesses a solid FY22 result that was consistent with guidance by management of Fonterra Shareholders Fund.

The FY22 DPS of 20 cents represented a 59% payout, notes the analyst. Management recently provided FY23 guidance for 45-60cps.

Fonterra noted the sale process for Soprole is progressing though the Australian business will be retained, which the analyst estimates could lower capital returns from the $1bn previously expected.

The price target is lowered to NZ$3.52 from NZ$3.62 after allowing for positive earnings revisions, which was offset by the adoption of a higher risk free rate assumption.

Current Price is $3.08. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.12 cents and EPS of 47.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.51.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.12 cents and EPS of 43.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.13.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GL1  GLOBAL LITHIUM RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $2.52

Macquarie rates GL1 as Outperform (1) -

A full year loss of -$4.3m from Global Lithium Resources was 11% larger than Macquarie had anticipated, largely given higher employee costs and office overheads.

The company has recently announced a solid metallurgical test result from its Marble Bar lithium project, including a spodumene concentrate grade of 5.76%, which Macquarie finds encouraging. The broker sees movement in spodumene pricing as the most material risk to its outlook.

The Outperform rating and target price of $3.00 are retained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $0.59
If GL1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 120.50.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.48.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LLC  LENDLEASE GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $9.66

Ord Minnett rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Following a tour of Lendlease Group projects in Boston and Chicago, Ord Minnett retains is Buy rating and $12.50 target price.

The company's residential offering has developed a strong reputation in Chicago, given its superior quality of construction and best-in-class
amenities, explains the analyst.

Meanwhile in Boston, the surging cost of land has made it difficult for new multi-family developments to be feasible. In general, the US business remains focused on execution and building out the existing workbook.

The Buy rating and $12.50 target are retained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $9.34 Difference: $3.16
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.41, suggesting upside of 32.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.4, implying annual growth of 66.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR  MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $2.03

Macquarie rates MGR as Outperform (1) -

The sale of Allendale Square (office asset in Perth) by Mirvac Group to Centuria Capital ((CNI)) is in line with the strategy enunciated by management at FY22 results, notes Macquarie.

At at June 30, 2022, the asset was valued at $207m on a 6.75% cap rate, and the asset was sold at a 7.25% cap rate. While the sale is incrementally dilutive to the broker's FY23 operating EPS forecast, the $2.39 target is retained. Outperform.

Target price is $2.39 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: $0.42
If MGR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 25.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.60 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of -34.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 13.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.6, implying annual growth of -3.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NIC  NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $0.88

Macquarie rates NIC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie sees the realisation of value for the limonite ore at the Hengjaya mine as a positive for Nickel Industries, following a strategic cooperation agreement with QMB New Energy Materials.

Under the agreement, Nickel Industries will supply 5-7Mtpa of limonite ore over the next 20 years. Also, the company could gain access to upstream battery-grade nickel as the potential for equity participation in the QMB HPAL plant is being explored by both parties.

Separately, the broker increases its weighted average cost of capital assumption on increased sovereign risk, as Indonesia is contemplating additional export taxes on nickel. As a result the target slips to 92c from $1.00. Neutral.

Target price is $0.92 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.1
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 9.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.49.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.32.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB  QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $2.66

Credit Suisse rates QUB as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The Productivity Commission has recommended regulation of container terminal operators to ensure they only collect terminal access charges from shipping lines, which Credit Suisse expects could drastically increase competition between container terminal operators to attract shipping lines. 

Melbourne's Patrick terminal, in which Qube holds a 50% stake, lifted terminal access charges from almost nil in 2017 to more than $150m, and Credit Suisse estimates charges accounting for over a third of the terminal's unit revenue in FY22.

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target price decreases to $2.80 from $3.55.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.2
If QUB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 21.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 11.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of 77.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 12.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.8, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $7.75

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Following a loss by Santos in the Federal Court an appeal is expected and the Barossa project may be delayed, suggests Citi. A lack of adequate consultation with Tiwi Islanders in the planning stage was behind the decision.

Given the broker expects currently high JKM prices will normailise, a delay to start up would hurt project economics.

Management's expectations of a 2025 start-up are unchanged. The Buy rating and $9.00 target price are maintained.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.42 Difference: $1.58
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.68, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.02 cents and EPS of 107.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 130.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.26 cents and EPS of 61.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.4, implying annual growth of -17.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $12.96

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Having recently downgraded the rating for Treasury Wine Estates to Neutral, Citi attains further conviction from data showing increased headwinds in the company's higher-margin US channels.

The company is also underperforming the broader off-premise US wine industry, according to the analyst.

The Neutral rating and $13.50 target are unchanged.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $12.55 Difference: $0.95
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.22, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 54.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 49.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 64.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.5, implying annual growth of 14.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VEA  VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $2.75

Credit Suisse rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse finds Viva Energy's acquisition of Coles Group's ((COL)) Coles Express business to not be materially favourable to either company. The broker is uncertain that the cash outlay will be covered by incremental earnings to 2029.

The transaction has been made for $300m, with Viva Energy anticipating a further $120-140m in integration costs. The purchase removes a $98m payment, due in 2029, and Viva Energy has guided to working capital synergies of $59m and earnings of $45-70m.

The Outperform rating and target price of $3.14 are retained.

Target price is $3.14 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.4
If VEA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.88 cents and EPS of 47.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.3, implying annual growth of 257.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.85 cents and EPS of 32.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of -40.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett sees additional flexibility for Viva Energy from a strategic and operational standpoint following the acquisition from Coles Group ((COL)) of its ColesExpress business.

The broker expects the transaction will close in the first half of 2023 and will be accretive to earnings and value.

The Buy rating and $3.35 target are maintained.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.61
If VEA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.3, implying annual growth of 257.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of -40.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

Viva Energy has announced the acquisition of Coles Group's ((COL)) convenience business (Coles Express) for $300m, a move which simplifies and accelerates Viva Energy's vision for the space, suggests UBS.

The broker also points out the transaction will diversify earnings beyond refining and fuel retailing. Despite these positives, Ampol ((ALD)) is still preferred, with upside to the same themes but at a lower valuation.

UBS lifts its target for Viva Energy to $3.40 from $3.15 and retains its Buy rating.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.66
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.3, implying annual growth of 257.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.2.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of -40.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WTC  WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED

Cloud services

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Overnight Price: $56.56

Macquarie rates WTC as Neutral (3) -

Factoring in a weaker global trade outlook, Macquarie lowers market growth estimates for WiseTech Global to 1% for FY23 from the 3.6% achieved in FY22.

While the broker's FY23-25 earnings forecasts fall by -2%, the $55 target price is unchanged. There is considered to be several upside risks including updates on the development of the CargoWise Neo product.

The Neutral rating is retained. 
 

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $53.33 Difference: $1.67
If WTC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $58.43, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.90 cents and EPS of 79.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 66.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.9, implying annual growth of 27.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 70.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 101.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.9, implying annual growth of 29.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
BKW Brickworks $21.42 Citi 28.00 26.00 7.69%
Macquarie 22.80 22.90 -0.44%
Morgans 24.00 23.00 4.35%
Ord Minnett 29.90 27.50 8.73%
COL Coles Group $16.34 Credit Suisse 18.59 18.62 -0.16%
Macquarie 18.70 18.90 -1.06%
Ord Minnett 15.80 16.80 -5.95%
UBS 17.50 18.00 -2.78%
NIC Nickel Industries $0.82 Macquarie 0.92 1.00 -8.00%
QUB Qube Holdings $2.60 Credit Suisse 2.80 3.55 -21.13%
VEA Viva Energy $2.74 UBS 3.40 3.15 7.94%
Summaries
AIZ Air New Zealand Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.65
AUB AUB Group No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $20.01
BKW Brickworks Buy - Citi Overnight Price $21.77
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $21.77
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $21.77
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $21.77
BSL BlueScope Steel Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $15.99
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $15.99
BUB Bubs Australia Buy - Citi Overnight Price $0.52
COL Coles Group Buy - Citi Overnight Price $16.60
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $16.60
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $16.60
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $16.60
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $16.60
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $16.60
CSL CSL Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $281.14
CWY Cleanaway Waste Management Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.75
FMG Fortescue Metals Sell - UBS Overnight Price $16.54
FSF Fonterra Shareholders Fund Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.09
GL1 Global Lithium Resources Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.52
LLC Lendlease Group Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $9.66
MGR Mirvac Group Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.03
NIC Nickel Industries Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.88
QUB Qube Holdings Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.66
STO Santos Buy - Citi Overnight Price $7.75
TWE Treasury Wine Estates Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $12.96
VEA Viva Energy Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.75
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.75
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.75
WTC WiseTech Global Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $56.56
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

19

3. Hold

8

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

1

Monday 26 September 2022

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