Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 3PL as Overweight (1) -

3P Learning has entered into a non-binding term sheet to pursue a merger with Blake. The company will acquire 100% of Blake for 137m 3P Learning shares, subject to due diligence.

The broker assesses that were the deal to complete, Blake owners would have 49.5% of the company's shares. It's considered a merger would effectively double the company's market cap, thereby increasing the stock's relevance.

The broker maintains its Overweight rating with a target price of $1.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.13
If 3PL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALK as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has initiated coverage on NSW focused gold producer and explorer, Alkane Resources with a price target of $1.30 and Buy rating.

The broker expresses confidence that, post divestment of its rare earth project and recent exploration discoveries, Alkane has the ability to transform into a mid-tier gold miner.

The analysts are in particular enthusiastic about the company's Boda project, while also pointing out this project will require many more years to drill and develop.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.49
If ALK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

UBS reviews independent data analysis that indicates Aristocrat Leisure's digital business grew at around 35% over the December
quarter.

The social gaming business grew by more than 40% year-on-year over the period, with Evermerge gaining share for the third consecutive month. 

On the social casino side, UBS highlights growth was also solid at around 30% year-on-year. 

UBS retains its Buy rating. The target falls to $35.50 from $38.80, as EPS forecasts decline 8-9% after the broker moves to a spot currency of 77 cents.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $31.37 Difference: $4.13
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.26, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Neutral (3) -

With France continuing its covid restrictions with a 15-day curfew extension, Macquarie estimates APRR car traffic to be down -20-25% in the first quarter.

Options around concession extensions, refinancing of Warnow and better Greenway outcome remain but are taking longer to be realised.

Macquarie retains its Neutral rating on Atlas Arteria. Target falls to $6.34 from $6.68.

Target price is $6.34 Current Price is $6.30 Difference: $0.04
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.80, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes conditions remain favourable for Autosports Group and are expected to continue for most of the remaining FY21. Margins are expected to normalise throughout 2021 and lead to lower earnings in FY22 versus FY21, assesses the broker.

The group's first-half net profit before tax guidance has been upgraded to $28.5m-$29.5m, up circa 45% from the group's last guidance.

Outperform retained, target rises to $1.90 from $1.75.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.31
If ASG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASG as Buy (1) -

Autosports Group provided another strong trading update, UBS assesses. Management now expects first half revenue of $905m.

The broker highlights key drivers including stronger-than-expected new and used vehicle demand, higher gross margins and cost control delivering improved operating leverage.

The analyst notes the leverage to the bottom-line is material and lifts EPS estimates for FY21-23 by 47%, 17% and 4%, respectively.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $1.80 from $1.64.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.21
If ASG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AWC as Outperform (1) -

With net distributions of US$54.7m, Credit Suisse notes Alumina Ltd enjoyed a solid December quarter despite a modest received price and a period end net debt balance of US$49.6m. Unit costs were mostly unchanged with effectively flat margins at circa US$66/t.

The broker assumes a US2.8cps dividend in February. With demand for base metals looking strong although without any material near-term catalysts, Credit Suisse retains its Outperform rating with a $2.10 target price.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.33
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Underperform (5) -

Alumina Ltd's December quarter result was strong with bauxite and alumina production numbers broadly in line with Macquarie's estimates. The dividend remains subdued.

Higher energy costs and operating currency headwinds are some key cost pressures heading into 2021. The company expects costs to increase circa US$220/t in 2021 from circa US$202/t in 2020.

Target price $1.50. Underperform rating.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Alcoa expects primary aluminium consumption to increase in China and ex-China in 2021, driven by economic recovery post-pandemic.

Stronger production than Morgan Stanley forecast was offset by weaker distributions, likely driven by shipment delays which could reverse next quarter.

Net distributions, which are the key determinant for dividend payments, were -US$34m lower than the broker's forecast of US$55m. 

The analyst expects a dividend of 4 cents for the second half, which if reduced by the lower distributions, adjusts to a pro forma
second half dividend of 2.8 cents.

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating. Industry view: Attractive. Target is $2.15.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.38
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes the quarterly update released by AWAC-partner Alcoa showed performance overall pretty much in-line with expectations.

Cost are on the increase and Alcoa's capex guidance for the year ahead contained no surprise. Overshadowing the market update is the fact the broker expresses low conviction in the direction of alumina prices in the near term.

The latter is co-responsible for keeping the rating on Hold. Ord Minnett prefers South32 ((S32)). Target price unchanged at $2.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.23
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AWC as Buy (1) -

AWAC-partner Alcoa reported an adjusted fourth quarter earnings (EPS) loss of -US$0.26, bringing the total 2020 adjusted EPS loss to  -US$1.16. 

Net distributions to non-controlling interests (Alumina Ltd) totalled US$54.5m bringing second half net distributions to US$92.8m.

UBS lowers the final dividend forecast to US2.9 cents from US3.2 cents to reflect actual distributions.

The Buy rating and $2.10 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.33
If AWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse notes a solid operational December quarter from Coronado Global Resources with a perfect balance of low-end costs and top-of-its-guidance 2020 production, even as the US operations continued to ramp up over the quarter.

The broker is also pleased with how the company refrained from adding a lot of debt despite the market softness. Marking to market for the December quarter leads to a -47% drop to 2020 earnings.

Outperform rating and $1.60 target maintained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.28
If CRN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.48, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Quarterly production results were mixed but Coronado Global Resources has achieved its 2020 saleable coal production guidance of 17mt and cost guidance of US$55/t.

US operations realised pricing was stronger than Macquarie expected and was led by premiums paid by China for North American metallurgical coal.

Macquarie is positive on the outlook for metallurgical coal but notes there is earnings downside risk at current spot prices.

Target price is $1.50. Outperform rating.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.18
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.48, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CRN as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans thinks marginal investors at the current share price are positioning for a potential met coal price spike.

As a result, the broker notes the disappointing 2020 headline financials didn't surprise the market. While the broker agrees there is compelling leverage to a higher-than-expected met price, the rating is lowered to Hold from Add on valuation.

Despite the analyst highlighting solid improvement for second half production, investors should be conscious of the risks wet weather poses to Curragh output, costs and the company’s ability to de-gear.

The target price is increased to $1.35 from $1.31.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.03
If CRN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.48, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CRN as Buy (1) -

Coronado Global Resources had a solid finish to 2020, assesses UBS, with fourth quarter saleable coal production of 4.5Mt. This brings 2020 production to 17.0Mt against guidance of 16.5Mt – 17.0Mt.

The broker notes the company lifted US production rates early in the quarter in response to higher prices. This is calculated to offset lower volumes at Curragh in the quarter due to high rainfall and mine sequencing.

The analyst highlights ongoing tensions between Australia-China has seen China sourcing met coal from higher cost producers like Russia and US, which has  has benefited the US operations.

UBS retains its Buy rating and increases the target to $1.48 from $1.35.

Target price is $1.48 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.16
If CRN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.48, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has conviction on earnings coming into the reporting season and on outperformance into the year ahead. It's considered the company offers the most leverage to the re-opening economy of the broker's eight high-conviction small-mid cap candidates.

The broker feels Corporate Travel Management could return to pre-covid levels of profitability, despite lower levels of total transaction volume (TTV), due to the hard decisions made on costs in 2020.

Target is $21.50. Overweight rating reiterated. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $16.87 Difference: $4.63
If CTD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.84, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CWY as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Cleanaway Waste Management's CEO Vik Bansal has decided to step down, leaving Credit Suisse surprised since the company is navigating through the pandemic and Vik Bansal has a solid track record.

While the search for a replacement has commenced, Chairman Mark Chellew will take on duties as Executive Chair in the meantime with CFO Brendan Gill delaying his retirement and staying on as COO.

Noting the considerable uncertainty around CEO transition, Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform with a target of $2.45.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.07
If CWY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWY as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Cleanaway Waste Management's CEO and Managing Director Vik Bansal will step down in the first half of 2021. This comes as a surprise to Macquarie since the broker expected Mr Bansal's tenure to extend longer especially after overcoming a difficult first half.

The broker sees little change in the strategic and operational direction of the business during this transition and retains its forecasts.

Even so, the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform on valuation grounds with a target of $2.55. 

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.17
If CWY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Equal-weight (3) -

Cleanaway Waste Management's CEO, Vik Bansal, has decided to leave during the first half and the company has started a replacement process. 

The broker assesses the company has a material pipeline of post-collection projects under development, so a leadership transition adds potential delay and uncertainty to the growth investment thesis.

Equal-Weight rating. Target is unchanged at $2.50. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.12
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie asserts general insurance results in the first half will be dominated by hazard allowance overruns, ongoing business interruption provision concerns and long term growth challenges. 

Going ahead, business interruption provisioning will continue to be under the spotlight, suggests Macquarie. While the sector is expected to face headwinds, the broker believes Suncorp Group ((SUN)) will recover faster than Insurance Australia Group. 

Macquarie downgrades its rating on Insurance Australia Group to Neutral from Outperform with the target falling to $5.10 from $5.30. 

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.12 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IPL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Fertiliser prices are strengthening and even with a weaker USD, have created a stronger near-term outlook for Incitec Pivot, suggests Credit Suisse.

The broker has upgraded its FY21 forecasts while downgrading its FY22 forecast figures due to AUD/USD currency assumptions. With robust demand and moderate supply additions, the broker expects a more favourable backdrop for fertilisers in 2021.

While constructive on the near-term outlook, Credit Suisse reduces its rating to Neutral from Outperform led by the recent share price strength. Target rises to $2.73 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.73 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects recent increases in soft commodity prices to provide further support to key fertiliser prices, and upgrades
earnings forecasts for FY21.

The broker raises the FY21 earnings (EBIT) forecast by 8% to $506m, driven by improved earnings in the fertiliser segment. This figure is calculated to be around 20% above consensus forecasts.

Rating is Overweight. The target rising to $3.15 from $2.75. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0.42
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KMD as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie revises upwards its FY21 earnings forecasts on recent developments Kathmandu's A&NZ retail and encouraged by positive updates from Premier Investments ((PMV)) and Super Retail Group ((SUL)).

The upgrade is after accounting for broader headwinds like lower offshore travel-related purchases as well as tourist-impacted locations offshore for posing headwinds for Rip Curl.

Believing the upside risk is already priced into the share price, Macquarie retains its Neutral rating. Target is raised to $1.35 from $1.15.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.1
If KMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.40, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates LNK as No Rating (-1) -

Credit Suisse updates forecasts to reflect the first half guidance update. Link Administration Holdings has upgraded its net profit guidance by 14% to $57m driven by higher operating income in the operating business, higher PEXA earnings and a lower-than-expected tax rate.

FY21 earnings forecasts increase by 11%, 5% in FY22 and 3% in FY23.

Credit Suisse is restricted on providing a rating and target at present.

Current Price is $4.81. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LNK as No Rating (-1) -

Link Administration has pre-released its first-half result, upgrading its operating net profit after tax to $65m versus the previous guidance of $57m. 

The higher net profit was driven by PEXA transaction volumes which hit a new record in December 2020. Earnings forecast for FY21 revised upwards by 9.7%.

Macquarie is currently restricted on providing a rating or target.

Current Price is $4.81. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LNK as No Rating (-1) -

Link Administration has upwardly revised first half operating profit (NPATA) guidance to $65m, well ahead of UBS's expectation for $59m.

The broker assesses the stronger performance during the month of December is largely driven by a very strong PEXA result.

UBS upgrades EPS estimates for FY21 and FY22 by 5.8% and 1.6%, respectively.

The broker is currently research restricted on providing a rating and target.

Current Price is $4.81. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates M7T as Add (1) -

Morgans regards the second quarter cashflow result for Mach7 Technologies as solid, with receipts of $4.2m and the company approaching operating cashflow breakeven.

Key highlights for the broker include the completion of the Client Outlook acquisition, receipts from customers of $4.2m and a net cash balance of $14.4m.

There were six new contracts and 14 expansion and/or renewals from the existing customers’ pipeline.

Morgans makes no changes to forecasts and the Add rating and target price of $1.49 are unchanged.

Target price is $1.49 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.15
If M7T meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MYX as Neutral (3) -

While prescription volumes have improved for several generic products division (GPD) products after Mayne Pharma Group's November AGM update, Macquarie notes weaker trends within Specialty Brands.

The broker tries to balance its medium-longer term opportunities investment view with nearer-term challenges.

That's assuming there are no delays. Neutral retained with a target of 36c.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.01
If MYX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.37, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Northern Star's December quarter was on plan, observes Credit Suisse. Of note, Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCGM) material movements were up 22% versus the last quarter while production at the Pogo mine remained flat due to covid constraints.

The broker notes the quarter was solid with all assets on track to budget. This is also Northern Star's last quarter in its present form with the Northern Star-Saracen Mineral Holdings ((SAR)) combination completion due on February 12. 

Outperform retained with a target price of $14.75.

Target price is $14.75 Current Price is $13.62 Difference: $1.13
If NST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.79, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as No Rating (-1) -

Northern Star Resources' gold sales in the second quarter were 6% better than Macquarie estimated while group costs were in line.

The company repaid $125m in debt over the quarter to finish in a net debt position of $58m with an additional $55m in bullion and investments.

The company maintains its production guidance over FY21 with 54% of production expected in the second half.

Macquarie is on research restrictions for Northern Star and unable to advise of a rating or target.

Current Price is $13.62. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $13.79, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Underweight (5) -

First half profit (NPAT) of $180m was -5% below Morgan Stanley's forecast, weighed down by a lower realised gold price.

The broker highlights Kalgoorlie production continued to underperform with production -11% below the analyst's estimate.

Pogo production was 6% better than Morgan Stanley's estimate, largely driven by 8% better grades, which offset lower milling rates.

Underweight rating. Target is $11.70. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $13.62 Difference: minus $1.92 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.79, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NST as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett comments both Northern Star and Saracen Minerals have updated the market with solid December quarter performances.

Soon both will join in a single entity that aims to produce 2 million ounces per annum (Mozpa), which should make for an attractive proposition to investors, in the broker's opinion.

Hold rating retained as a little more upside is envisaged for both entities. For Northern Star, the price target has lifted to $14.40 from $14.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $13.62 Difference: $0.78
If NST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.79, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Neutral (3) -

In aggregate, the Saracen Mineral Holdings ((SAR)) and Northern Star production and cost results were in-line with UBS expectations.

The broker highlights positive ore reconciliation at the Superpit and the ramp up of the Carosue Dam plant. The key negatives were considered cost pressures in Western Australia and Pogo’s development is still below where it needs to be, due to covid in Alaska.

The analyst thinks news flow over the next 12 months should be positive, as management unlocks synergy benefits.

The Neutral rating is unchanged and the target is increased to $14.20 from $13.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $13.62 Difference: $0.58
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.79, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Netwealth Group reported second-quarter funds under administration (FuA) of $38.8bn, up 14% versus last quarter and 2% ahead of Credit Suisse's forecasts. Net inflows were up 34% quarter on quarter.

The platform upgraded its FY21 flow guidance to $8.5-$9bn. The strong quarter shows the platform is capitalising on its recent wins, assesses Credit Suisse. 

Led by higher expected flows and modestly lower revenue margins, Credit Suisse upgrades its earnings 1-6% for FY21-23 and is of the view the material flows and growing market share will continue for the group.

Neutral rating with the target rising to $17 from $14.75.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $17.73 Difference: minus $0.73 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.38, suggesting downside of -13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Netwealth Group's net inflows for the second quarter were $2.6bn, ahead of Macquarie's estimated $2bn with total funds under administration of $38.8bn as at December 31, 2020, again ahead of the broker's estimated $36.6bn.

FY21 net inflows are expected to be $8.5-$9.0bn.

The contemporary platforms continue to take meaningful market share from the larger incumbents, with no obvious catalyst on the horizon to reverse this trend.

Macquarie sees upside risk to flows and expects the next 6-12 months to remain fairly benign from a competitive standpoint. The risk of lower rates earned on cash balance precludes the broker from taking a more positive view.

Neutral maintained with the target price rising to $18.25 from $17.50.

Target price is $18.25 Current Price is $17.73 Difference: $0.52
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.38, suggesting downside of -13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NWL as Hold (3) -

Netwealth Group ended the second quarter with $38.8bn assets under management (AUM), up 14% for the quarter and up 36.1% on the previous corresponding period.

Morgans explains the group continues to report impressive net inflows, which is largely driven by the lag from adviser growth over recent periods.

Despite a strong industry position, high cash generation and industry tailwinds, the broker views the stock as fair value and retains a Hold recommendation.

Target is raised to $16.15 from $13.15.

Target price is $16.15 Current Price is $17.73 Difference: minus $1.58 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.38, suggesting downside of -13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ORI as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse downgrades Orica's earnings forecasts for FY21-22 on account of a weaker USD. The broker notes mining activity in the US, Canada and Latin America have improved since its last update. On the flip side, the downside risks to Australian coal have increased.

On coal, Credit Suisse notes under-supply of ammonium nitrate in the NSW market is a mitigating factor. Overall the broker sees upside risks to volume guidance but not to earnings.

Neutral rating with the target rising to $16.99 from $15.91.

Target price is $16.99 Current Price is $15.81 Difference: $1.18
If ORI meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.33, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PNV as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

PolyNovo's first half NovoSorb BTM sales were below Macquarie's expectations, mostly led by US weakness in October-November due to hospital capacity constraints.

The broker has updated its Hernia revenue forecasts, assuming first product sales occurs in the second half of FY22 rather than the first half. The addressable market has also been updated to include only ventral hernia surgeries, estimates to comprise of circa 20-25% of all hernia surgeries in the US.

With an uncertain near-term outlook, Macquarie moves to Neutral from Outperform. Target price rises to $2.75 from $2.55 on higher costs.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.13
If PNV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

Perseus Mining delivered a strong quarter, delivering to budget and executing on its Yaoure project commissioning ahead of its target of December 31, 2020.

The company is actively assessing new projects and potential inorganic opportunities as a way to potentially complement organic opportunities. The balance sheet is in sound shape with modest leverage.

The company has guided to second-half production between 175-190koz at costs between US$950-1150/oz.

Outperform rating with the target rising to $1.35 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.08
If PRU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.47, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

Perseus Mining's second-quarter operational result disappointed Macquarie on production and costs but the broker is hopeful looking at a better than expected second-half guidance with higher production numbers expected.

Yaouré mine commenced production during the quarter and the company expects the project to be delivered below the US$265m development budget. 

Outperform retained for Perseus Mining with a target of $1.50.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.23
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.47, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RMD as Buy (1) -

UBS incorporates a 10% share buyback into forecasts, after assuming no major increases in debt levels due to any significant near-term acquisitions. This is calculated to result in forecast EPS upgrades of around 7% longer term.

While the sleep business is likely to remain slightly pressured in the short term due to covid-19 and lower diagnostic rates, mask/accessory re-supply growth will remain robust, assesses the broker.

The Buy rating is unchanged. The target price is increased to $US241 from US$210.

Current Price is $27.92. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $27.54, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

South32's December quarter numbers were mostly in line, observes Credit Suisse, with the upgraded production outlook for the Cerro Matoso mine (Nickel, Colombia) a positive that will drive higher production for the next six years.

There was no new news regarding South Africa Energy Coal (SAEC) which is considered the key catalyst to watch for this quarter with Eskom consent and any repricing discussions the remaining hurdles.

Seeing upside to the share price, Credit Suisse retains its Outperform rating with the target rising to $2.9 from $2.8.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.24
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

South32's second-quarter result was mixed with stronger production offset by higher tax expenses.

The outlook for Cerro Matoso and Cannington mines has improved, driving 20-30% upgrades to Macqaurie's short and medium-term earnings outlook.

Backed by the improved earnings outlook, Macquarie upgrades its rating to Neutral from Underperform. Price target rises to $2.70 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.04
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley calculates that strong first half production and sales across assets, implies revenue and earnings (EBITDA) were 2% higher than the broker estimated.

All assets performed in-line or better than the analyst forecast, barring the soon to be divested South African Energy Coal (SAEC).

Overweight rating and  target price of $2.95 from $2.75 are unchanged. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.29
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Despite a second quarter result ahead of estimates, Morgans lowers South32's rating to Hold from Add, due to a recent share price rally.

Divestment of the company’s South African Energy Coal (SAEC) business is progressing, and management is now targeting sale completion by 31 March 2021.

The broker sees further upside potential from a continuing commodity cycle. While it's considered there's less upside potential from aluminium and manganese, coal markets are likely to recover.

The broker reduces the target price to $2.60 from $2.65.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett finds South32's December quarter performance overall proved better-than-expected, but as with other mining companies, a stronger USD is likely to translate into rising costs.

Also, management believes the South Africa Energy Coal (SAEC) divestment will be concluded in the March quarter, subject to gaining approvals from Eskom.

Price target has gained 10c to $3.30. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.64
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Production for the second quarter was ahead or in-line with UBS estimates for all but thermal coal, which was impacted by reduced Eskom demand and low price. 

This resulted in production cuts to manage only profitable tonnes into the market, explains the broker. It's calculated this led to unit costs for SA Energy Coal (SAEC) being 10% above guidance for the first half.

The analyst notes management's production guidance was broadly maintained across the assets, notwithstanding maintenance and wet weather impacts.

Target price is increased to $3.05 from $3. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.39
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SAR as No Rating (-1) -

Saracen Mineral Holdings reported its second-quarter production with gold production 6% ahead of Macquarie's forecast and costs -8% lower than expected.

With the first half production at 309koz, Macquarie considers the company is well on its way to meet the full-year guidance of 600-640koz.

Subsequent to the company shareholders voting in favour of the proposed merger with Northern Star Resources ((NST)), the merger is set to be completed on February 12, 2021.

Macquarie is subject to research restrictions on Saracen and cannot advise a rating or target.

Current Price is $5.14. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SAR as Equal-weight (3) -

In the wake of a December quarter production update, Morgan Stanley lowers the target price to $5.30 from $5.35 and keeps the rating at Equal-weight.

Profit (NPAT) was lower than the broker expected. Gold production was in-line with the analyst's forecast, while all-in sustaining costs (AISC) were -6% lower, driven by Thunderbox.

FY21 management guidance is unchanged.

Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.14 Difference: $0.16
If SAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SAR as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett comments both Northern Star and Saracen Minerals have updated the market with solid December quarter performances.

Soon both will join in a single entity that aims to produce 2 million ounces per annum (Mozpa), which should make for an attractive proposition to investors, in the broker's opinion.

Hold rating retained as a little more upside is envisaged for both entities. For Saracen Minerals, the price target has lifted to $5.40 from $5.30.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.14 Difference: $0.26
If SAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Credit Suisse has reduced its rating on Star Entertainment Group to Neutral from Outperform with the target Price unchanged at $3.85.

The broker's FY21 earnings forecast is down substantially while earnings forecasts for FY22-FY23 have been increased. In FY19, the group was incurring about $78m/month in operating costs and the broker expects $75m/month in FY22.

In the first half, the broker expects operating income of $231m, down -25% versus last year due to covid restrictions. 

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $0.17
If SGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates STO as Neutral (3) -

Santos has guided to 2020 free cash flow above US$725m and in line with Credit Suisse's estimated US$724m while maintaining its 2021 guidance.

Credit Suisse notes Santos is the consensus oil pick given its confident outlook over the coming year. The broker expects a potential spot LNG price revenue boost in the upcoming first quarter and a final investment decision on Barossa within the next few months.

Neutral rating is maintained with the target raised to $6.96 from $6.40.

Target price is $6.96 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Neutral (3) -

Santos reported a strong December quarter with production ahead of Macquarie's expectations and full-year production hitting the top end of Santos's guidance led by a surge in gas sales in the quarter.

The company's shares continue to trade beyond its valuation, observes Macquarie, which already include a high portion of value for growth projects.

Neutral rating is retained with the target price rising to $6.55 from $6.25.

Target price is $6.55 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

A fourth quarter production update revealed average realised LNG prices were below Morgan Stanley's estimates, while production was slightly higher.

The broker highlights the recent surge in LNG prices bodes well for the sanctioning of Barossa which Santos targets for the first half.

The analyst thinks there is room for further outperformance if oil stays around US$55/bbl, in-line with Morgan Stanley's bull-case scenario.

Overweight rating is retained. Target is $7.30. Industry view:attractive.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Add (1) -

Morgans describes the fourth quarter result as good, with robust LNG demand a key driver. GLNG LNG volumes were up 50% on the previous quarter.

Cooper Basin and PNG LNG volumes were broadly in-line with the broker's expectations, while WA Gas was ahead.

The analyst highlights the company generated free cashlfow of US$725m during the December half, despite the weak price environment.

The company remains Morgans top large-cap oil and gas recommendation. 

Morgans decreases the target price to $8.20 from $8.25 and maintains the Add rating.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: $0.8
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -

On Ord Minnett's assessment, Santos released a solid December quarter production report, with most metrics better than what Citi analysts had penciled in.

The analysts note the company generated a 6%-plus free cash flow yield in 2020, and they expect this percentage to increase in 2021.

Santos remains the broker's top sector favourite with the price target climbing to $7.65 from $7.53. Buy.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: $0.25
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

While fourth quarter production was in-line with UBS estimates, sales volumes for Santos were 7% ahead of estimates. This was considered due to higher gas trading activities in the quarter and higher third party sales volumes.

However, the broker describes it as a soft result with revenue -3% below estimates, due to lower LNG pricing.

The price target (previously $6.60) and the Buy rating are under review pending further analysis.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $7.40 Difference: minus $0.8 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.26, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie asserts general insurance results in the first half will be dominated by hazard allowance overruns, ongoing business interruption provision concerns and long term growth challenges. 

Going ahead, business interruption provisioning will continue to be under the spotlight, suggests Macquarie. While the sector is expected to face headwinds, the broker believes Suncorp Group will recover faster than Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)). 

Macquarie maintains its Outperform rating on Suncorp as its preferred stock in the sector with the target falling to $11.50 from $11.80. 

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.56 Difference: $0.94
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.03, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VCX as Underweight (5) -

Vicinity Centres has announced a -4% decline in valuation across the portfolio in the six months ended December 2020. 

The broker assesses the bulk of the value decline was driven either by revised income assumptions, or 'below the line' assumptions such as extended downtime, maintenance capex, or incentives.

The CBD assets were the hardest hit (-8.6%) explains the analyst, affected by the lack of tourists and office workers. 

After allowing for the above, Morgan Stanley calculates the company is trading at a -27% discount to net tangible assets (NTA).

The Underweight rating and $1.57 target price are unchanged. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $1.57 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.02
If VCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.59, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

Higher-than-expected operating expense and depreciation guidance has prompted Credit Suisse to revise down its 2020 net profit by -37.8%. Trading costs were also higher than expected.

The broker is disappointed with the total operating cost (circa -US$820m) that is around the upper end of Woodside Petroleum's previous cost guidance.

The company's 2021 production guidance at 90-95mmboe is in line with prior guidance.

The Outperform rating is unchanged with the target price rising to $27.83 from $24.57.

Target price is $27.83 Current Price is $26.95 Difference: $0.88
If WPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.26, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

Woodside Petroleum's December quarter production was in line with Macquarie's expectations.

2021 production guidance is weak and the broker has lowered its production forecast to 93mmboe from 98mmboe led by major reductions expected in Karratha domestic gas production and North West Shelf shutdowns.

Target rises to $27.85 from $25, Outperform retained.

Target price is $27.85 Current Price is $26.95 Difference: $0.9
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.26, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WPL as Equal-weight (3) -

A fourth quarter production update revealed revenue of $957m compared to the $924 estimated by Morgan Stanley. Production was slightly lower than the broker's estimate, apparently due to reduced domestic gas production. 

The analyst thinks higher spot LNG prices bode well for Woodside for 2021, with the company guiding to 15-20% spot sales.

Equal-weight retained for Woodside Petroleum. Target is $22.90. Industry view: attractive. 

Target price is $22.90 Current Price is $26.95 Difference: minus $4.05 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.26, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WPL as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett finds Woodside Petroleum's December quarter production report "reasonable" with higher-than-expected sales volumes more than offseting lower realised prices.

Though the broker remains confident about further price rises for crude oil and LNG this year, the rating still remains on Hold. Target price rises to $27.20 from $26.11.

A petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT) benefit of US$140m to June 2020 has pushed up projected profits for the year, but the analysts add they have actually reduced their operational earnings estimate.

Target price is $27.20 Current Price is $26.95 Difference: $0.25
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.26, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WPL as Buy (1) -

Woodside Petroleum's sales volumes for the fourth quarter were ahead of UBS forecasts by 7%. Meanwhile, production was -2% below the broker's estimates, due to lower output from both the North West Shelf (NWS) and Pluto.

While revenues were above consensus, the analyst believes the focus of the market is 2021 production.

UBS's price target (currently $23.50) and rating (currently Buy) are under review pending further analysis. 

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $26.95 Difference: minus $3.45 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.26, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates Z1P as Underperform (5) -

Zip Co's second-quarter business update delivered a revenue beat in the seasonally strong final quarter of 2020. Quadpay was the highlight, Macquarie notes, with resilient margins and steady customer growth in each month of the quarter.

A key focus at the upcoming result will be the investment required to achieve this customer growth in the US as the broker expects the competitive environment to intensify in 2021 impacting customer acquisitions costs.

Target rises to $5.35 from $5.05. Underperform retained.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $7.36 Difference: minus $2.01 (current price is over target).
If Z1P meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.64, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates Z1P as Accumulate (2) -

A creative Ord Minnett has responded with "You little Zipper" post Zip Co's trading update, indicating the performance was better-than-expected, in particular carried by Quadpay in the US.

The broker is keeping an optimistic eye on the expansion into the UK. Accumulate rating retained. Price target lifts to $7.80 from $6.50.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.36 Difference: $0.44
If Z1P meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.64, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources