Australian Broker Call

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November 28, 2018

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AHG - AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
ALQ - ALS LIMITED Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
CCL - COCA-COLA AMATIL Downgrade to Sell from Neutral Citi
MIL - MILLENNIUM SERVICES Downgrade to Hold from Buy Ord Minnett
SAR - SARACEN MINERAL Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
SOM - SOMNOMED Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
AHG  AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components

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Overnight Price: $1.73

Ord Minnett rates AHG as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Management has indicated trading has been below expectations because of a weak private buyer market, particularly in NSW and Victoria. In FY19 the company is also experiencing structural changes in finance & insurance regulation as well as lower car sales.

The company is guiding to a fall in operating net profit of around -23% for FY19. Ord Minnett calculates this implies a recovery in profitability for the remainder of the year. In the automotive division operating earnings (EBITDA) fell -16.1% for the four months to October.

Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Accumulate and reduces the target to $1.90 from $3.00.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.17
If AHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of -0.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of 15.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALQ  ALS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $7.27

Ord Minnett rates ALQ as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

The first half net profit exceeded Ord Minnett's forecasts, particularly on the commodity side. The broker upgrades estimates by 8% for FY19 and by 5% for FY20.

While the share price has come under pressure because of a lack of margin expansion in life sciences and a forecast slowdown in sales growth, the broker notes the second half will cycle a weak comparable period.

Moreover, 30%-plus growth rates off a low base were always going to be unsustainable. Ord Minnett raises the target to $8.29 from $8.19. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $8.29 Current Price is $7.27 Difference: $1.02
If ALQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.16, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.4, implying annual growth of 252.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.8, implying annual growth of 14.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKW  BRICKWORKS LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $16.26

Citi rates BKW as Neutral (3) -

The company expects FY19 will be better than FY18. Weaker earnings from building products should be more than offset by higher contributions from property and the inclusion of Glen-Gery.

Citi was not surprised by a weak performance in the first quarter, given a wet October in NSW and higher energy costs. Stronger November sales were welcomed, driven by firm demand in Victoria and better weather in NSW.

Neutral rating. Target is raised to $17.00 from $16.20.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $16.26 Difference: $0.74
If BKW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.93, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 58.90 cents and EPS of 146.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.5, implying annual growth of 30.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 58.90 cents and EPS of 116.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.5, implying annual growth of -22.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates BKW as Neutral (3) -

Brickworks increased FY19 guidance at its AGM based on higher property earnings, while building product earnings are expected to moderate and energy costs to rise. The broker has increased its target to $16.35 from $16.10 on higher property net asset value.

Property continues to proved the earnings offset, the broker notes, but earnings come with a low degree of visibility and significant lumpiness. The slowing housing cycle remains a headwind and the broker retains Neutral.

Target price is $16.35 Current Price is $16.26 Difference: $0.09
If BKW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.93, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 162.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.5, implying annual growth of 30.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 102.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.5, implying annual growth of -22.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates BKW as Hold (3) -

Morgans found the trading update at the AGM positive, with property earnings off to a good start. The contribution from the Glen-Gery acquisition is also expected to help offset any weakness in building products. Building products earnings were materially lower in the first quarter.

Despite the tough quarter, management believes market fundamentals are supportive of new housing construction, and employment levels are healthy amid low interest rates and high immigration.

Demand in Victoria is at unprecedented levels and the improving weather in NSW means brick sales across the country in November were ahead of the prior year. Morgans increases FY19 property operating earnings (EBIT) forecasts by 28%.

Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $15.96 from $15.41.

Target price is $15.96 Current Price is $16.26 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If BKW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.93, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 152.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 153.5, implying annual growth of 30.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 140.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.5, implying annual growth of -22.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCL  COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $9.83

Citi rates CCL as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi expects earnings growth to remain below the 5% target over FY19 and FY20, given the prospects in the Indonesian market. Australian volume growth is also likely to slow while the potential acquisition of Lion Dairy & Drink is by no means certain.

The broker makes no changes to estimates but downgrades to Sell from Neutral, as the stock is trading at a 20% premium despite Indonesia offering limited growth. Target is reduced to $8.90 from $9.50.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $9.83 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If CCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 53.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.2, implying annual growth of -11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 55.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.2, implying annual growth of 3.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $3.97

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Fortescue has commenced mining of its West Pilbara 60%+ fines with first shipment due in December. The broker left the site tour believing the company's FY19 shipment target is achievable.

Increasing realised pricing by adding in high-grade iron ore presents upside risk, the broker suggests. Outperform and $4.70 target retained.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.97 Difference: $0.73
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.12 cents and EPS of 48.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 28.32 cents and EPS of 41.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of -2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

The company's site trip presentation reveals strip ratios at 1.5x from FY19-23 and a life-of-mine average of 2.4x. This is a positive development, in Morgan Stanley's view, and base case valuation could rise, assuming no other charges.

What is of concern is the improvement could be at the cost of mine life, the production mix and rates could be different, and/or the years after FY38 could be higher.

Underweight rating and target of $3.30 maintained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.97 Difference: minus $0.67 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.18 cents and EPS of 37.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 31.12 cents and EPS of 34.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of -2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH  FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $12.25

Credit Suisse rates FPH as Underperform (5) -

First half net profit was in line with expectations while the performance within divisions was mixed. Hospital was supported by another strong contribution from new applications. Homecare improved, benefiting from the new Sleepstyle generator. Mask growth remains subdued.

Credit Suisse observes the business still executes well in attractive markets but the challenges with masks highlight the need for a balanced approach to valuation.

The broker considers a 12% premium to its upwardly revised valuation is inadequate compensation for the risks. Underperform maintained. Target is lifted to NZ$12.50 from NZ$12.00.

Current Price is $12.25. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.14 cents and EPS of 34.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.68 cents and EPS of 40.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.8, implying annual growth of 15.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.8.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HVN  HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics

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Overnight Price: $3.11

Citi rates HVN as Sell (5) -

Australian franchisee sales slipped -0.2% in FY19 to date, better than Citi expected given the declines over July and August.

The broker is surprised the run rate of sales growth in Australia improved over recent months, given the headwinds from the weakening housing cycle and cooler weather affecting seasonal sales.

Citi remains cautious about the level of promotional investment in the industry that now must be cycled.

Sell rating retained. Target is $3.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 30.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.1, implying annual growth of -7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 29.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of -3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates HVN as Neutral (3) -

Sales in Australia from the period July to November were weak, as Credit Suisse expected. International business was strong and benefited from currency translation, although this was not large enough in aggregate to offset Australian weakness.

The broker suggests allocating capital to growth in Asia is looking to be a good decision. International offers some downside protection and there is valuation support from the Australian property portfolio. Neutral rating maintained. Target is $3.96.

Target price is $3.96 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.85
If HVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.69 cents and EPS of 29.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.1, implying annual growth of -7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 27.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of -3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Deutsche Bank rates HVN as Buy (1) -

The company's sales showed some improvement in Australia while offshore was strong. Australian sales to date were down -0.2%, better than the -1.1% witnessed over July/August. Total sales grew 2.7%.

Deutsche Bank notes this was driven by strong underlying growth in Asia, Europe and Ireland. The broker believes the market is contemplating a scenario that is too dire. Buy rating maintained. Target is $4.60.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $1.49
If HVN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.1, implying annual growth of -7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of -3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates HVN as Underweight (5) -

Sales growth was mixed in the period July-November, Morgan Stanley observes. Total Australian franchisee sales fell -1.3%. Aggregated sales were up 2.7% and ahead of expectations. This was assisted by currency and strong results offshore.

Underweight rating. Target is $3.10. Cautious industry view maintained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.1, implying annual growth of -7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of -3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates HVN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett is pleased the core Australian franchising operations enjoyed a return to positive like-for-like sales growth in the period July-November.

The broker notes flagship stores have better merchandise, more premium product and superior in-store service. This has distanced Harvey Norman from purely price-based competition.

The broker maintains a Hold rating and $3.75 target.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.64
If HVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.1, implying annual growth of -7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of -3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates HVN as Neutral (3) -

Sales for the year to date were ahead of UBS estimates. Australian franchisee sales were down -1.3%, albeit an improvement on the first eight weeks.

UBS found top-line trends pleasing in the context of a weaker consumer backdrop and slower seasonal sales as well as the cycling of the iPhone X launch.

The international business was the highlight as sales growth was significantly better. UBS increases FY19-21 estimates by 1%. The broker still believes the outlook is challenged as the housing market is moderating and competition is intensifying.

Neutral rating plus $3.00 target maintained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 31.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.1, implying annual growth of -7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 30.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of -3.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIL  MILLENNIUM SERVICES GROUP LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services

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Overnight Price: $0.23

Ord Minnett rates MIL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

The company provided a very weak outlook at its AGM update. Operating earnings are anticipated, if current trends persist, to be near breakeven levels versus prior guidance for $15.5-17.5m.

Ord Minnett interprets this as suggesting gross margins are now in the range of 9-10% versus historical rates of over 17%. The new board has committed to restoring profitability but there is little visibility to date on when margins and cash flow will stabilise.

Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Buy and reduces the target to $0.23 from $1.16.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0
If MIL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 25.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 0.91.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.75.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEC  NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV

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Overnight Price: $1.77

UBS rates NEC as Buy (1) -

UBS notes the media sector has sold off on the potential for a weaker macro outlook. While sharing the concerns, the broker believes, at current prices, the market is attributing little value to the Fairfax ((FXJ)) print assets and synergies.

It is also capitalising Domain ((DHG)) at trough earnings. As the scheme will become effective on November 28 the broker adjusts forecast for the post-merger entity. Domain appears to be the key risk in the second half.

Buy rating and $2.15 target maintained.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.38
If NEC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of -21.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of -4.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWH  NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting

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Overnight Price: $1.76

Deutsche Bank rates NWH as Hold (3) -

First half revenue guidance is in line with Deutsche Bank's forecasts although earnings guidance (EBITA) is significantly higher. The broker calculates a very strong first half EBIT margin of 9.0% and upgrades forecasts.

Hold rating retained on valuation. Target is raised to $2.10 from $2.00.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.34
If NWH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.18, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.8, implying annual growth of 27.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 10.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PAR  PARADIGM BIOPHARMACEUTICAL

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $1.16

Morgans rates PAR as Initiation of coverage with Reduce (5) -

Paradigm Biopharmaceutical is a clinical stage company focused on the treatment of orthopaedic and viral arthritis through its re-purposed drug, pentosane polysulphate sodium.

The outcome of the trial, likely before the end of the year, is expected to generate significant interest in this non-opioid and non-steroid based treatment.

Strong results to date have spurred a rally in the share price and Morgans believes high levels of trial success are already priced in.

The broker initiates coverage with a Reduce rating and $0.89 target.

Target price is $0.89 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If PAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAN  QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $6.05

Credit Suisse rates QAN as Outperform (1) -

Qantas has guided for FY19 fuel costs of $4.09bn. Given the company's flexible fuel hedging, Credit Suisse estimates there is a $170m fuel cost benefit.

The broker now expects FY19 pre-tax profit of $1.51bn and reiterates an Outperform rating. Fuel cost estimates are lowered for FY20 and FY21 because of lower forward prices. Target is raised to $7.35 from $6.70.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $6.05 Difference: $1.3
If QAN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.37, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 67.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.8, implying annual growth of 8.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 73.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.6, implying annual growth of 3.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB  QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $2.68

Ord Minnett rates QUB as Buy (1) -

NSW Ports will invest $120m to create a new on-dock rail capacity at Port Botany terminal over the next four years. The Patrick terminal is jointly owned by Qube Holdings and Brookfield Infrastructure Partners.

Ord Minnett believes the announcement should help shunt more containers from road to rail, increasing the appeal of future utilisation of the Moorebank facility.

Patrick will make a complementary investment of $70m to support the terminal's capacity and the broker estimates Qube's share at $35m. Buy rating and $3.10 target maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.42
If QUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 61.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 17.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SAR  SARACEN MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $2.37

Macquarie rates SAR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Saracen has provided a strong exploration update featuring positive drilling results in all areas, Macquarie notes. The broker anticipates mine life extension at Deep South and expects Thunderbox to accelerate now underground drilling is underway.

An improved earnings outlook sees Macquarie's target rise to $2.60 from $2.50 but current valuation leads to a pullback to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.23
If SAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.94.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 26.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.01.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SEK  SEEK LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services

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Overnight Price: $18.57

Credit Suisse rates SEK as Neutral (3) -

The company has reaffirmed guidance at its AGM update, including revenue growth of 16-20% and operating earnings (EBITDA) growth of 5-8%.

While lower growth in job advertisements domestically means less of a tailwind for the company, Credit Suisse considers this primarily the result of difficult comparables, as labour market fundamentals remain fairly robust.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating and $19.10 target.

Target price is $19.10 Current Price is $18.57 Difference: $0.53
If SEK meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.51, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 57.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.7, implying annual growth of 299.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 66.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.8, implying annual growth of 16.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SOM  SOMNOMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $1.95

Morgans rates SOM as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans was pleasantly surprised at the AGM as the company has announced the full closure of all RSS centres from January 1, 2019. The broker believes this move, after the company called a halt to the roll-out and closed underperforming centres, shows the increasing level of difficulty in navigating this channel.

The securing of a large working capital facility is also a positive as it removes a query over any capital raising. This will also allow the company to focus on the profitable core business. Guidance for breaking even in underlying operating earnings (EBITDA) has been reconfirmed.

Morgans upgrades to Add from Hold and reduces the target to $2.15 from $2.23.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.2
If SOM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 65.00.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $5.58

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

The broker is back from restriction following the completion of the Quadrant Energy acquisition. The broker sees that deal as providing a cushion against falling oil prices, given oil-linked volumes now fall to 70% from 82% prior.

Santos' free cash flow breakeven level sits below US$35/bbl, the broker notes, and with the potential to increase production and upside offered by Dorado, the broker returns with an Outperform rating and $7.00 target.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $1.42
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.02, suggesting upside of 25.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.65 cents and EPS of 36.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.77 cents and EPS of 52.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.4, implying annual growth of 36.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

The company has completed the acquisition of Quadrant Energy. On completion the company paid US$1.93bn versus Morgan Stanley's forecast of US$1.8bn. The company has guided to gearing around 33% at year end, below the broker's assumptions.

If oil can retrace to the low US$70/bbl range following the OPEC meeting Morgan Stanley would expect Santos to pay back around US$700m in debt next year. The recent pull back in the stock is considered an opportunity to accumulate.

Overweight rating retained. Industry view: Attractive. Price target is $8.30.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $2.72
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.02, suggesting upside of 25.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.31 cents and EPS of 30.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.63 cents and EPS of 41.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.4, implying annual growth of 36.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

URW  UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD

REITs

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Overnight Price: $12.38

Ord Minnett rates URW as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett's UK research counterparts have updated forecasts and the broker reviews its Australian CDI forecasts.

The broker reduces forecast yields on committed developments over the next two years as well as incorporating an additional EUR4bn in disposals over the next two years and a reduction in development profit margins.

While this lowers the target to $15 from $19, it still implies 22% potential upside from the current share price. This indicates to Ord Minnett the current market may be too bearish. Buy rating maintained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.38 Difference: $2.62
If URW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.65, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 18.29 cents and EPS of 20.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 61.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.76 cents and EPS of 20.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.7, implying annual growth of 5.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XIP  XENITH IP GROUP LIMITED

Legal

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Overnight Price: $1.41

UPDATED

Morgans rates XIP as Hold (3) -

The company has announced an all scrip offer by QANTM Intellectual Property ((QIP)) whereby shareholders will receive 1.22 QIP shares for every Xenith share held.

Morgans notes IPH Ltd ((IPH)) has also separately approached QIP with the intention of acquiring it and has bid $1.80 for that stock.

Neither party has provided a trading update as part of the merger presentation. Morgans believes the completion of the merger is far from certain and retains a Hold rating and $1.44 target.

Target price is $1.44 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $0.03
If XIP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.29.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.83.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AHG AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS Ord Minnett 1.90 3.00 -36.67%
ALQ ALS LIMITED Ord Minnett 8.29 8.19 1.22%
BKW BRICKWORKS Citi 17.00 16.20 4.94%
Macquarie 16.35 16.10 1.55%
Morgans 15.96 15.41 3.57%
CCL COCA-COLA AMATIL Citi 8.90 9.50 -6.32%
MIL MILLENNIUM SERVICES Ord Minnett 0.23 1.43 -83.92%
NWH NRW HOLDINGS Deutsche Bank 2.10 2.00 5.00%
QAN QANTAS AIRWAYS Credit Suisse 7.35 6.70 9.70%
SAR SARACEN MINERAL Macquarie 2.60 2.50 4.00%
SOM SOMNOMED Morgans 2.15 2.23 -3.59%
STO SANTOS Macquarie 7.00 N/A -
URW UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD Ord Minnett 15.00 19.00 -21.05%
Summaries
AHG AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.73
ALQ ALS LIMITED Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.27
BKW BRICKWORKS Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $16.26
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $16.26
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $16.26
CCL COCA-COLA AMATIL Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $9.83
FMG FORTESCUE Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.97
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.97
FPH FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $12.25
HVN HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS Sell - Citi Overnight Price $3.11
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.11
Buy - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $3.11
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.11
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.11
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $3.11
MIL MILLENNIUM SERVICES Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.23
NEC NINE ENTERTAINMENT Buy - UBS Overnight Price $1.77
NWH NRW HOLDINGS Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $1.76
PAR PARADIGM Initiation of coverage with Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $1.16
QAN QANTAS AIRWAYS Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $6.05
QUB QUBE HOLDINGS Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.68
SAR SARACEN MINERAL Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.37
SEK SEEK Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $18.57
SOM SOMNOMED Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.95
STO SANTOS Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.58
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.58
URW UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $12.38
XIP XENITH IP GROUP Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.41
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

9

2. Accumulate

1

3. Hold

12

5. Sell

6

Wednesday 28 November 2018

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.