Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Equal-weight (3) -

Following 2Q results for 29Metals, Morgan Stanley lowers its target price to $1.75 from $2.75 to incorporate updated 2022 guidance and inflationary impacts.

Copper output was a 6% beat versus the broker's forecast, gold performed in-line, while zinc missed by -17%, mainly driven by lower recoveries. Silver also missed by -7%, with Capricorn production a -39% miss.

All-in sustaining costs (AISC) of US$3.57/lb were 10% higher owing to lower by-product sales, explains the analyst. The Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.38
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 47.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AWC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse highlights the June quarter results for AWAC, in which Alumina Ltd is minority shareholder, showed an increase in the alumina price to US$420/t from US$376/t in the previous quarter and costs rose to US$321/t, up from US$288/t.

Accordingly margins rose, however the outlook for the 2H22 looks more subdued with falling alumina prices and ongoing increases in costs, as highlighted by AWAC-partner Alcoa.

The broker points out that Alcoa is looking at options to convert to renewable energy for the Portland Smelter and noted if suitable solutions are not found the company would even consider divestment,

A five-fold rise in gas prices from last year have hit costs at the San Cipria unit in Spain and Alcoa has reduced production by 16% at the refinery.

Credit Suisse's earnings forecasts are reduced by 26% accounting for higher costs and the stock is attractive on an 8-9% yield.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.90 from $2.00. 

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.47
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

Alumina Ltd's June quarter saw a mix of higher realised prices and higher costs (as per Alcoa's AWAC update). Macquarie has revised its forecasts for the San Ciprian refinery to lower production and higher costs, reflecting the tight gas market in Europe.

Incorporating the result and new forecasts for San Ciprian has triggered a -16% cut to the broker's earnings forecasts, partially offset by higher aluminium production from the December quarter.

Macquarie continues to expect near-term margin headwinds from increased key input costs despite favourable exchange rates. Neutral retained, target falls to $1.50 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.07
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Following June quarter results for the AWAC JV, Morgan Stanley now expects an Alumina Ltd 1H dividend of US$4.1cps compared to the US$5.7cps previously expected. The target price is lowered to $1.75 from $1.85.

The broker highlights production came in lower than expected and 2022 alumina production guidance was lowered to 12.4Mt from 12.8Mt. AWAC-partner Alcoa also flagged a -15% reduction in production at the San Ciprian refinery due largely to increased EU energy costs.

The Overweight rating is unchanged. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.32
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AWC as Buy (1) -

AWAC-partner Alcoa's quarterly update seems to have been in-line with Ord Minnett's forecasts, but costs proved more costly, so to speak, and provided a negative surprise.

Given the ongoing gas crisis in Europe, the analysts have factored in significantly higher costs ahead, with the San Ciprian refinery in Spain in particular described as "a material drag on the business and limiting cash available for dividends".

Offsetting the cost conundrum, Ord Minnett does remain confident alumina prices will recover. Estimates have been culled, but that Buy rating remains in place as the broker continues to see Alumina Ltd as cheaply priced.

Target price drops to $1.80 from $2.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.37
If AWC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Citi's price target has shifted to $2.10 (was $1.95) following an in-line production report, but the broker has now also incorporated higher prices for oil and gas, and this has pushed up forecasts for Beach Energy.

Interestingly, Citi is a self-declared oil bear, but supply outages and Russia's supply restrictions are seen as undeniably supportive for gas prices.

For the record, Citi's Brent oil forecasts have gone up, but only to US$98.5 and US$75.3 for 2022 and 2023 and by 2025 the low is projected at US$51/bbl.

The rating for Beach Energy remains Buy.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.3
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.98, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Sell (5) -

Updating its modeling has led Citi analysts to reduce forecasts for Challenger with negative spreads, higher bond yields and lower expectations for funds under managament taking their toll.

Statutory EPS forecast dives by -37% in FY22, but only by -2% and -3% for FY23 and FY24.

In a recent report, the analysts built the case for ongoing headwinds from asset (re)valuations. Sell rating retained. Price target loses -10c to $6.80.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $7.30 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.22, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Citi has undertaken another attempt to establish how much of a beneficiary Computershare is from higher bond yields, plus, equally important, how much of it has already been priced in?

Incorporating higher bond yields in the broker's modeling has pushed up EPS forecasts by 11% and 16% for FY23 and FY24 respectively, with a minor downward adjustment put in place for FY22.

Reflecting the broker's view that risks are merely balanced at this point, the rating remains Neutral. Target price has lifted to $26.90.

Target price is $26.90 Current Price is $26.07 Difference: $0.83
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.56, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Evolution Mining's June quarter update shed scant production details post the late June update according to Credit Suisse.

The broker continues to have concerns about the company's debt levels and points out cash generation of $66m in the June quarter is not seen as maintainable with weakening copper prices and higher fleet expenditure at Ernest Henry,

Credit Suisse believes the copper guidance from Evolution Mining is too high and on the analysts' forecasts for copper, costs and the AUD, the company could be cash flow negative in the next year and a half, risking dividends.

The rating is maintained at Underperform and the target price decreases to $2.50 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.16
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Evolution Mining's June quarter production and costs were largely in line with Macquarie's expectations. Strong cash generation leads to net debt -8% lower than forecast. There were no changes to previously released FY23 guidance and FY24 outlook.

Positively, Red Lake continues to ramp-up and Macquarie looks to future resource upgrades as positive catalysts for the stock. An update to the Ernest Henry resource is expected in August and presents a key near-term catalyst.

Neutral and $2.60 target retained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.26
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Equal-weight (3) -

Evolution Mining's gold production and Red lake output were in-line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts, which is not surprising given a June 27 pre-result release by management.

Due to some financial model changes, the analyst reduces the target price to $2.35 from $2.40. The Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.01
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Evolution Mining's June quarter numbers proved broadly in-line with Ord Minnett pointing out management at the gold producer had already lowered expectations in late June, so no flowers this time around (we made up the latter).

Now that expectations have been re-based, and so has the share price, Ord Minnett sees an opportunity to jump on board of a lower cost producer with a quality management team at an attractive price.

Hence, the rating has been upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target price has lost another -10c to $2.90.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.56
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Buy (1) -

Following a downgrade to guidance in late June, UBS was unable to extract much that was new from Evolution Mining's 4Q production report.

The Buy rating is retained given shares are trading at a -19% discount to the broker's valuation. The target price eases to $2.90 from $2.95.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.56
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GEM as Buy (1) -

The post covid occupancy recovery for G8 Education seems to be progressing in-line with UBS expectations and earnings appear to be on-track. The Buy rating is retained on an attractive valuation and the $1.34 target is unchanged.

First half results are due on August 24.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.26
If GEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HDN as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assigns its only Overweight rating from among its research on REITs to HomeCo Daily Needs REIT, after initiating coverage. A price target of $1.57 is set.

The broker likes the convenience-style retail exposure in metro locations, and substantial development pipeline. The REIT is considered the only way to get exposure on the ASX to large-format-retail (LFR) malls (generally lower cost/sqm) with scale.

The $500m development pipeline is focussed on services, supermarkets, and daily needs-type tenancies, explain the analysts.

Target price is $1.57 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.2
If HDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HMC as Initiation of coverage with Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on HomeCo with a $5.45 target price and an Equal-weight rating. The broker is cautious on the REIT, given its limited fund sourcing network and the current macroeconomic headwinds.

The analyst is also wary of a lack of diversity by comparison to peers, though concerns are partly offset by attractive sector exposures.

While strengths include good exposure to defensive sectors and the development pipeline, the broker prefers Goodman Group ((GMG)) and Centuria Capital Group ((CNI)) from among property fund managers under coverage.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: $0.26
If HMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.34, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

Insurance Australia Group has issued a profit warning today and analysts at Citi, in an initial response, point at the disappointing insurance margin in combination with "encouraging" guidance for FY23.

Citis asks: will the market believe that FY23 guidance?

The insurer released $200m in earlier provisions for business interruption insurance, but still could not avoid having to issue a profit warning, the analysts point out.

Citi thinks the market will be "unimpressed" given this is yet another disappointment, again questioning the quality of the CGU book and the insurer's ability to accurately guide about its performance.

Target $5.05. Buy.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $0.78
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Sell (5) -

Insurance Australia Group has issued a profit warning today and analysts at UBS, in an initial response, note the insurer's margin is much weaker than forecast.

In addition, reserve levels have again proved insufficient as a further top-up was required and UBS continues to see further downside
risk in this area.

One positive is that FY23 guidance has been "upbeat". UBS has quickly updated forecasts., while retaining its Sell rating for the insurer. Price target $4.10.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.94, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Outperform (1) -

Liontown Resources has awarded the EPCM (engineering, procurement and construction management) contract for its Kathleen Valley spodumene project to Lycopodium ((LYL)). Activity at Kathleen Valley is accelerating with the project on track for commissioning in 2024.

The award of the EPCM contract is an important step to ensure surface infrastructure remains on schedule, Macquarie notes.

Outperform and $1.85 target retained.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.61
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LVH as Add (1) -

Morgans highlight from LiveHire's 4Q trading update was the performance of the domestic SaaS business, which added ten net new clients, with closing annual recurring revenue (ARR) for the quarter of $5.5m.

With an increasing focus on the TAPFIN partnership, management lowered its estimated annual contract value (EACV) expectations in the North America Direct Sourcing business. The broker points out TAPFIN creates a US presence and global reach.

The analyst likes the push into North America and retains the Add rating, while the target slips to $0.50 from $0.51.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.12
If LVH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates M7T as Add (1) -

Following 4Q results for Mach7 Technologies, Morgans reduces its revenue forecast by -$1m to align with the guidance range of $26.5-27.5m for FY22.

For FY23/24, the analyst's revenue forecast falls by -$2m to reflect a move to more SaaS-style contracts. In FY21, the split was 50:50 capital/Saas, and is now around 60:40.

As a result of these forecast changes, the broker's target falls to $1.34 from $1.55. The Add rating is maintained as it's felt investor confidence will return with ongoing growth in the sales order book.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.56
If M7T meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

In anticipation of an update by Macquarie Group at the July 28 AGM, Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating on the quality of growth alternatives, and lowers its target to $218 from $234. The 1H of FY23 is expected to be challenging, given the current activity slowdown.

While June quarter completed deals at the bank rose year-on-year, in a conservative stance the broker cuts forecast FY23 M&A fees by -18%. Impairment forecasts also increase by 10% with further provision releases now unlikely. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $218.00 Current Price is $174.90 Difference: $43.1
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $198.00, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Outperform (1) -

June quarter results for gold major Newcrest Mining outshone the other gold producers in what has been a lackluster year for the sector according to Credit Suisse.

Production of 637koz was 5% better than analyst forecasts and beat consensus estimates by 5%. Cadia was notably better than consensus estimates and inline with Credit Suisse while Lihir impressed.

Newcrest Mining's management of costs and covid disruptions positively surprised the broker.

The broker upgrades earnings forecasts by 7% for FY22 on lower costs and higher production estimates and forecasts FY23 production of 2.5Moz and AISC (all in sustaining costs) at US$1,017/oz (copper at US$3.3/lb).

Credit Suisse retains an Outperform rating and unchanged target of $26.00.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $19.35 Difference: $6.65
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.49, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCM as Outperform (1) -

Newcrest Mining's June quarter production and costs were better than Macquarie had forecast. Guidance for FY23 production and costs will be released with the FY22 earnings result, including strategies to manage industry cost inflation.

The company is advancing expansion and growth studies on its key projects with the release of much of this work expected in the next three months.

Outperform and $28 target retained.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $19.35 Difference: $8.65
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.49, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes fixed price electricity at Cadia and a large production base outside of Australia helped Newcrest Mining counter rising costs and produce the strongest result amongst peers that have reported to-date.

There were 4Q beats versus the broker's forecasts for production, all-in sustaining costs and cash costs of 2%, 4% and 21%, respectively. Group gold production for FY22 was in-line with guidance, while copper production fell short by -4kt.

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating and $28.60 target. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $28.60 Current Price is $19.35 Difference: $9.25
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.49, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Hold (3) -

Newcrest Mining's June-quarter report met expectations on costs and surprised by 6% on total production output. Ord Minnett has increased its cost forecast by 10% ahead of guidance yet to be provided (should occur in August).

Several projects have been delayed, the broker observes. Ord Minnett thinks Newcrest will exercise its option to acquire an additional 5% of Havieron.

The rating remains Hold and the target price decreases to $21 from $23.00 with higher costs to blame for it.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $19.35 Difference: $1.65
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.49, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

A 2Q production beat by Newcrest Mining against the forecast of UBS was the result of improved throughput and grades at both Cadia and Lihir.

The price target falls by -9% to $20.30 as the broker sees cost risks from several areas including reduced copper credits and industry wide inflationary pressures. There's also considered to be potential for reduced gold output in FY24 from output halving at Telfer.

The Neutral rating is unchanged. UBS believes the gold price may trade higher against the backdrop of slowing growth, rising recession risks, and as the US Fed shifts towards a more accommodative stance.

Target price is $20.30 Current Price is $19.35 Difference: $0.95
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.49, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Outperform (1) -

Ahead of New Hope Corp's June quarter report, Macquarie has updated its realised pricing assumption for the quarter and beyond
due to strong thermal coal realised pricing being reported by peers.

This drives a 29% increase in forecast FY22 earnings and a target price increase to $5.00 from $4.00. The broker's production and sales volume expectations are below guidance, but buoyant thermal coal prices remain a tailwind.

Outperform retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.39 Difference: $0.61
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.37, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PAN as Outperform (1) -

Panoramic Resources updated on guidance on Wednesday, pointing to a slower ramp-up for Savannah, which led Macquarie to cut its target to 25c from 30c.

Subsequently, the miner has issued initial drill results above the 900 Fault which are encouraging and provide upside to the mineral resource, Macquarie notes, and could result in a potential second mining front with an updated mine plan expected by the end of 2022.

Outperform.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.06
If PAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMD as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett had already nominated ResMed as its favourite healthcare stock for the second half of 2022. With the company scheduled to release Q4 financials on August 12, a preview has been released.

Ord Minnett is expecting a "robust" performance and expects management at the company to share insights on component supply and cost inflation; both considered key for ResMed's shorter-term outlook.

Buy. Target $38.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $33.29 Difference: $4.71
If RMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.76, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Santos' June quarter production was -6% below Macquarie's forecast and revenue was -17% below. However free cash flow for the half was better than Macquarie had expected and "this is what really counts in our view".

Despite -7% underperformance versus Woodside Energy in the last 6 weeks, the broker believes its investment case remains intact and the current price level provides an opportunity to accumulate prior to key asset sales being announced and finalised.

Outperform retained, target falls to $10.05 from $11.00.

Target price is $10.05 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $2.8
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.63, suggesting upside of 37.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Overweight (1) -

Lower production by Santos than Morgan Stanley was expecting was offset by better domestic gas production in WA and LNG pricing strength. Darwin LNG revenues were weaker given lower sales volumes, explains the analyst.

The broker makes only slight changes to forecasts and retains its Overweight rating and $11.00 target price. Industry view: Attractive.

Should strong cash flow generation continue, the analyst sees potential for on-market buybacks.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $3.75
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.63, suggesting upside of 37.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett finds Santos' quarterly production update missed forecasts, even though the overall commodity price environment was very supportive.

Outages at the LNG facilities seem to have been the culprit. Offsetting the disappointment is the observation that cash flow remains very high, supporting both capex and deleveraging of the balance sheet.

Then there's the optionality from asset sales. Ord Minnett has no problems retaining its Buy rating. Target remains at $9.55.

Target price is $9.55 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $2.3
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.63, suggesting upside of 37.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

Santos delivered record 1H free cash flow to reduce gearing to 22.5% from 27.5%, despite softer 2Q production. The company is estimated to be on-track to reduce gearing to 17% by year's end, the bottom end of management's 15-25% gearing target.

Quarterly production was an around -6% miss versus the consensus expectation, due to weaker production in WA and operational troubles in the Cooper Basin, explains the analyst. 

Sales revenue missed the broker's forecast by -5% as softer output outweighed strong realised oil and LNG prices. After factoring-in the misses and allowing for more PNG LNG sales from August 2023, the target rises to $9.65 from $9.50. Buy.

Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $7.25 Difference: $2.4
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.63, suggesting upside of 37.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SYR as Neutral (3) -

Syrah Resources' June quarter graphite production and sales came in some -15% below the Credit Suisse forecasts.

Balama's production was limited by high inventories and shipping container shortages while inflationary pressures lifted costs by 25%, offsetting the higher price of US$662/t, notes the broker.

The company is reviewing the current cost guidance with ongoing inflation and a cash burn of -US$37m in the June quarter was assessed by the broker from the US$168m cash balance.

Credit Suisse continues to envisage risks at Balama including security, logistics as well as execution risk for Vidalia and cost inflation, noting the awaiting confirmation from Tesla.

Target rises lowers to $1.35 from $1.75.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.03
If SYR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley raises its target price for Syrah Resources to $1.55 from $1.40 following a largely-in-line June production report. The average weighted price of US$662/t (CIF) was a 2% beat compared to the broker's estimate.

The forward sales order book is considered high due to constrained shipping. The price target rise is largely driven by changes to the analyst's financial model.

The Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.23
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TAH as Neutral (3) -

Following a period of restriction on Tabcorp Holdings research, UBS reinstates coverage with a Neutral rating and $1.00 target price, down from $4.70 following the demerger of the Lotteries and Keno business. Despite a lack of growth options, it's felt there's little downside risk.

For the remaining Wagering business, the analyst feels the company will need to improve its product and value perception to stabilise market share.

While structural reform of key licences will be the most significant value driver, the broker cautions that such reform is uncertain and the timing difficult to forecast.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TUA as Overweight (1) -

In anticipation of late September results, Tuas is Morgan Stanley's preferred small-cap Telco exposure. It's felt the company's aggressively-priced plans should benefit from any trading down by customers, and asset backing of $1.00 provides downside protection.

The Overweight rating and $1.65 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.14
If TUA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Following China's anti dumping measures, Treasury Wine Estates has re-allocated Penfolds Bin and Icon ranges to other growth markets including Singapore.

In the line of duty, the analyst at UBS visited a major Singaporean shopping centre and witnessed multiple points of presence for the company's brands. Brand awareness is expected to be driven right across Asia ex China.

The Buy rating and $13.50 target are unchanged.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $11.70 Difference: $1.8
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.41, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Energy's June quarter production is described as solid, however its LNG price realisations were -13% below Macquarie's expectations.

Woodside is trading on a significant premium to Santos, which can be explained in part by Woodside's dividend yield of 12%. But given large capex commitments ahead, Macquarie believes the dividend policy will be reviewed with the upcoming earnings result.

Buybacks are considered unlikely. Neutral and $28.50 target retained.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $31.14 Difference: minus $2.64 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.77, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WDS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley is making the case for paying out US$1bn (or more) to shareholders in August given Woodside Energy received the equivalent of all cashflows generated by BHP Petroleum at deal closure.

Given Woodside Energy is running close to being net cash, Morgan Stanley thinks paying out 80% of underlying profits makes a lot of sense.

Current forecasts assume US70c in half-yearly payout plus US50c as a special dividend for a total shareholder payout of US$1.20 in August.

Following the quarterly update, estimates have slightly reduced. Overweight. Industry View is Attractive. Price target $40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $31.14 Difference: $8.86
If WDS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.77, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WDS as Add (1) -

Following Woodside Energy's 2Q operational result showing strong free cash flows (FCF), Morgans sees potential for capital management initiatives to be announced in August. It's estimated US$2bn of FCF will be generated in 2022.

Sales revenue rose 44% quarter-on-quarter and exceeded the broker's forecast. Management set group production at 145-153mmboe (around 50% LNG), which is considered conservative when compared to the consensus expectation.

The Add rating is maintained while the target price slips to $35.40 from $36.00.

Target price is $35.40 Current Price is $31.14 Difference: $4.26
If WDS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.77, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WDS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett found it a "complicated" June-quarter update from Woodside Energy; not easy to draw up any comparisons with the past.

The good news is, comments the broker, Woodside's base business performed generally in-line with expectations.

Ord Minnett continues to view the shares as attractively priced, and thus retains its Buy rating. Price target reduces to $37.50 from $38.05 following adjustments made to forecasts.

The broker also highlights on its estimates as much as US$10bn could be returned to shareholders.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $31.14 Difference: $6.36
If WDS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.77, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WGX as Outperform (1) -

Westgold Resources' June quarter was in line with Macquarie's expectations, with some production metrics having already been released.

While management did not provide FY23 guidance, the broker currently forecasts a modest uptick in production at a slightly higher cost.

WestGold's business is maturing and with the Fender underground coming on line, there is potential for ore supply to outstrip mill capacity, Macquarie believes.

Outperform and $2.00 target retained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.78
If WGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ZIP as Underperform (5) -

Zip Co added 400k customers in the US during the June quarter, bringing the total to 7m. However, transaction frequency continued to decline to 3.4x, well below the 5-6x of FY21.

US bad debts appear to have passed their peak and have dropped back below 3%, but the 2.7% experienced in the quarter remained above the 2.2% management expected, as the lower-end consumer is beginning to feel the impact of cost of living pressures.

Zip is raising its prices in response, but Macquarie warns repricing initiatives cannot be relied upon forever. With the path to profitability remaining uncertain, Underperform retained. Target falls to 65c from $1.05.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.85, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ZIP as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett found Zip Co's recent quarterly update quite disappointing, but the real news is management is now in pursuit of stopping the bleeding, focusing on sharply reducing the cash burn.

Ord Minnett anticipates any operations outside of Australia and New Zealand or the USA will be placed into run-off mode, unless a buyer can be found.

The broker, for what it's worth, thinks Zip Co can become EBITDA cash profitable late in FY24. As anything BNPL is this year out-of-favour (putting it mildly) the broker has reset its price target to 90c. Accumulate rating retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.12
If ZIP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.85, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ZIP as Sell (5) -

UBS makes minimal changes to its long-term base case assumptions, following Zip Co's 4Q update. The Sell rating and $0.45 target price are maintained.

A volume miss versus the broker's forecast is considered a step towards adjusting risk settings to more sustainable levels, and aiding near-term cash burn.

Under the old risk settings, arrears in A&NZ were steady quarter on quarter, while net bad debts increased to 3.82% in Q4 from 3.40% in Q3.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.85, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources