Australian Broker Call

Produced and copyrighted by at www.fnarena.com

July 16, 2020

Access Broker Call Report Archives here

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on symbol for fast access.

The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
ORG - Origin Energy Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
QUB - Qube Holdings Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold Ord Minnett
SXL - Southern Cross Media Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
WPL - Woodside Petroleum Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
Z1P - Zip Co Downgrade to Sell from Neutral UBS
AFG  AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD

Banks

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $1.61

Morgans rates AFG as Hold (3) -

Morgans remains wary of the risks for the company, noting rising hardship levels for home loan borrowers may result in credit risk exposure increasing.

In light of the lenders mortgage insurance policy, the broker expects the company's credit losses will be contained in a scenario where house prices fall by up to -20%.

Still, expected credit loss provisions are likely to rise significantly. Morgans reduces earnings forecasts and maintains a Hold rating. Target is reduced to $1.50 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If AFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.47.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.50.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $26.24

UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

UBS has data that suggest a significant increase in social casino revenue in the second half of FY20. The broker estimates Aristocrat Leisure experienced 40-50% growth over the June quarter.

Social casino forecasts are upgraded to 35% growth in the second half, reflecting current trends.

The broker retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $29.60 from $31.80.

While FY20 estimates for earnings per share are upgraded 6%, a -6-7% downgrade is made to FY21-22 estimates.

Target price is $29.60 Current Price is $26.24 Difference: $3.36
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.57, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.2, implying annual growth of -37.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.0.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 121.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.7, implying annual growth of 59.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APT  AFTERPAY LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $68.16

Morgan Stanley rates APT as Overweight (1) -

Afterpay announced Apple Pay and Google Pay in-store payments support in the US. Morgan Stanley believes this will accelerate merchant and user adoption.

The broker points out this move will increase customer flexibility and streamline the authentication and checkout process as well as help with omni-channel penetration. It will also help protect the company maintain its first-mover advantage in the buy now pay later sector.

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating with a target price of $101. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $101.00 Current Price is $68.16 Difference: $32.84
If APT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.92, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 400.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -15.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 973.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWY  CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $2.17

Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Overweight (1) -

The volume recovery seen in the first three weeks of June for Cleanaway Waste Management may provide a potential upside of $10m-20m, thinks Morgan Stanley.

The company reported commercial and industrial volumes were up about 1% for the first three weeks of June, while landfill volumes were down by circa -5%.

One key risk is the decline in landfill margin over time driven by volume diversion to resource recovery from landfill, highlights the broker.

While this is unavoidable at the industry level, the broker notes at the company level it depends on the location and timing, with industry incumbents having the advantage of developing new recycling or waste-to-energy (WtE) facilities.

Cleanaway Waste Management's WtE projects may have 30-40% operating income margin and could increase margins to about 50% via commercial and financial structuring, suggests the broker.

Morgan Stanley reaffirms its Overweight rating with a target price of $2.45. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.17 Difference: $0.28
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.20 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.8, implying annual growth of 13.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.1.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of 17.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELO  ELMO SOFTWARE LIMITED

Software & Services

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $6.25

Morgan Stanley rates ELO as Overweight (1) -

June quarter results for Elmo Software saw FY20 receipts at $57.5m versus its annual recurring revenue (ARR) guidance of $55-57m. Even though the company did not provide an update on its ARR, Morgan Stanley notes receipts have been stronger than guidance.

The broker thinks the strong balance sheet points towards inorganic growth opportunities but admits there needs to be more clarity on organic performance for a re-rating. The company is expected to report FY20 results on August 6.

Morgan Stanley rates the stock as Overweight with a target price of $9. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: $2.75
If ELO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 31.25.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 44.64.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDG  GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $0.72

Morgans rates GDG as Add (1) -

Record quarterly sales of $90m were achieved in the June quarter, up 42%. Funds under management finished the year at $1.29bn, up 21%.

Morgans lifts FY20-21 estimates for earnings per share by 1-7%. Add rating maintained. Target is raised to $0.83 from $0.77.

Target price is $0.83 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.11
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 2.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.67.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 3.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.82.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMG  GOODMAN GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $15.78

UBS rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

Industrial real estate remains well supported and a key beneficiary of the shift to e-commerce, UBS asserts. The trends have been confirmed in the broker's latest survey.

Space requirements were highest in Europe and the US market experienced the largest slowdown in demand. Trends in warehouse automation continue.

Goodman Group is well-positioned to take advantage of the trends, in the broker's view. Neutral rating retained. Target is raised to $17 from $16.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $15.78 Difference: $1.22
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.66, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 29.90 cents and EPS of 57.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.6, implying annual growth of -35.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.0.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 32.60 cents and EPS of 62.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.8, implying annual growth of 7.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HAS  HASTINGS TECHNOLOGY METALS LTD

Rare Earth Minerals

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $0.12

Ord Minnett rates HAS as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed the rare earths market and notes Hastings Technology continues to progress offtake and debt funding.

The broker retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $0.16 from $0.15.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.04
If HAS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 24.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.14.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYC  LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $1.96

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed the rare earths market and assesses the political risk in Malaysia has dissipated.

Lynas Corp will release its June quarter result on July 22 and a weak production outcome is expected as a result of the plant shutdown and slow re-start during the pandemic.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $4.70 from $4.60.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $2.74
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 140% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.00.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA  ORORA LIMITED

Paper & Packaging

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $2.42

Credit Suisse rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse now models around 2% operating earnings growth in Australasia.

Expectations are lowered amid suspicions demand for wine glasses may be softer in FY21. However, beverage can volumes are expected to remain elevated.

The broker suspects the company will be involved in M&A and also that private equity may be interested in its Australasian can and glass businesses. Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.65 from $2.81.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.23
If ORA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.78, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 47.80 cents and EPS of 10.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 19.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.9, implying annual growth of -3.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 20.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 14.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 16.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $5.84

Credit Suisse rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Origin Energy has outlined -$1.16-1.24bn in impairments for FY20. Around -$720-770m relates to the value of APLNG because of a reduction in assumed long-term oil prices to US$60/bbl.

The company has reaffirmed energy markets guidance. Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $6.00 from $6.20.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.84 Difference: $0.36
If ORG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.76, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 26.60 cents and EPS of 60.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.6, implying annual growth of -16.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 21.94 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of -46.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Origin Energy has written down APLNG to reflect lower long-term oil price assumptions. Macquarie notes investors have already reacted to the fall in the oil price and this is just a catch up.

The onerous contract provision at Cameron is a negative but the broker believes it is offset by the update on volumes and pricing compared to previous expectations.

Macquarie downgrades FY21-22 estimates by -6-18% while FY20 is unchanged.

Target is raised to $6.59 from $6.56. Outperform maintained.

Target price is $6.59 Current Price is $5.84 Difference: $0.75
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.76, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 55.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.6, implying annual growth of -16.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 28.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of -46.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates ORG as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans believes Origin Energy has medium-term potential but a recovery will be some time away.

The downside risks in the meantime outweigh the longer-term potential. Rating is therefore downgraded to Hold from Add.

The company has announced a -$1.2bn post-tax write-down of its LNG business.

Guidance for energy markets operating earnings has been reiterated at $1.4-1.5bn. Target is reduced to $5.95 from $6.43.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $5.84 Difference: $0.11
If ORG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.76, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.6, implying annual growth of -16.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of -46.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates ORG as Accumulate (2) -

Origin Energy has announced sizeable asset write-downs. The majority are driven by lower pricing assumptions, with the carrying value of APLNG falling by around -$750m.

Ord Minnett considers this largely irrelevant as investors will have their own price forecasts, although remains more critical of the onerous provision for the Cameron LNG contract.

However, the broker's overall view has not changed and an Accumulate rating and $7.70 target are retained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $5.84 Difference: $1.86
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.76, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.6, implying annual growth of -16.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of -46.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Origin Energy has announced FY20 impairment charges and higher bad debt provisions arising from lower oil prices and increased customer hardship.

The higher provisions reduce estimates for earnings per share by -2% in FY21-22. UBS expected the announcement, noting the impairments are largely driven by a lower long-term Brent oil price assumption.

An onerous contract provision for the Cameron LNG contract will not affect underlying profit but along with the impairment charges lifts gearing to 32% in FY20.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $7.40 from $7.55.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $5.84 Difference: $1.56
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.76, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.6, implying annual growth of -16.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of -46.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE  QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $9.59

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

QBE Insurance Group’s skew towards larger corporates and exposure to Lloyd’s & US markets makes it well placed to protect its top line and deliver premium rate increases versus Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) and Suncorp Group ((SUN)), says Morgan Stanley.

Offsetting this is an increase in uncertainty around the insurer’s covid-19 claim costs. The broker forecasts the group to incur -US$75m in the first half of FY20 for UK business interruption claims.

The three extra reinsurance covers for FY20 will help manage covid-19 claims, thinks the broker.

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating with the target price reducing to $11.60 from $12. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $11.60 Current Price is $9.59 Difference: $2.01
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.45, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 25.32 cents and EPS of minus 1.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 644.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -15.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 67.02 cents and EPS of 83.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.8, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB  QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $2.82

Citi rates QUB as Neutral (3) -

Qube has announced the sale of its Minot Investment Property for $207m. Citi believes this could generate a pre-tax gain on sale of around $37m.

The broker assesses the sale as reinforcing the optionality available for the balance sheet, which is important ahead of an increase in capex associated with Moorebank. 

Citi forecasts underlying NPATA of $125m for FY20. The results will be announced on August 25. The broker suggests focusing on cost-out initiatives and the outlook for capex into FY21

Neutral rating is maintained. Target price unchanged at $3.15.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.82 Difference: $0.33
If QUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of -46.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.10 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of 7.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates QUB as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

The company has exchanged contracts for the sale of the Minto properties to entities associated with Charter Hall ((CHC)) for $207m.

Ord Minnett assesses the sale is neutral to valuation. However, the addition to the balance sheet is advantageous, given the uncertainty over logistics volumes for FY21.

Recycling capital from a mature property is a positive signal from a company that has deployed substantial expenditure on new projects.

Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold and raises the target to $3.09 from $2.95.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.09 Current Price is $2.82 Difference: $0.27
If QUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.90 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of -46.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.7.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 3.90 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of 7.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL  SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $31.38

Credit Suisse rates SHL as Outperform (1) -

As testing for the coronavirus rapidly rises in key markets, Credit Suisse models the revenue and earnings opportunity.

The broker expects testing rates to remain robust until there is a vaccine, unlikely to be available until mid 2021.

The broker expects testing will add 13% to operating earnings in FY21.

However, upside in estimates is only included for the US, given low infection rates in other markets or reimbursement restrictions.

Outperform retained. Target rises to $33.50 from $32.50.

Target price is $33.50 Current Price is $31.38 Difference: $2.12
If SHL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.77, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 110.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.1, implying annual growth of -10.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 99.00 cents and EPS of 136.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.7, implying annual growth of 18.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 91.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SXL  SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP

Print, Radio & TV

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $0.17

Macquarie rates SXL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. The revenue environment is uncertain and the stock is trading near the target price.

While the business has controlled costs and will benefit from JobKeeper payments, further weakness in advertising markets is expected to prevail for the near term. Target is unchanged at $0.18.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.01
If SXL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 2.80 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 16.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.25.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SXY  SENEX ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $0.26

Morgans rates SXY as Add (1) -

Gas production has continued to ramp up from Roma North and Atlas along with a steady performance from the Cooper Basin, Morgans observes.

Production was at the top end of upgraded guidance in FY20 and operating earnings are expected to be also at the high end of the $45-55m guidance.

Having achieved its objective to emerge as a competitive diversified east coast gas producer, the broker envisages Senex Energy moving into the next phase of cash flow generation.

Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.433 from $0.457.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.173
If SXY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.37, suggesting upside of 27.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of 160.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of 283.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SXY as Accumulate (2) -

June quarter production was at the top end of guidance. Ord Minnett notes production continues to improve and realised prices remain elevated despite lower benchmark oil prices.

Upgraded reserves imply life of more than 30 years for Atlas and more than 50 years for Roma North.

Accumulate rating and $0.35 target retained.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.09
If SXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.37, suggesting upside of 27.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of 160.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of 283.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPG  TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $8.21

Morgans rates TPG as Add (1) -

Morgans takes up coverage of a merged TPG Telecom and Vodafone Australia. The company has 22% of the market by subscribers with its main brands being Vodafone for mobile and TPG, iiNet and Intermode for fixed line.

No forward-looking guidance has been provided. Morgans considers the rationale for the merger centres on combined cash flow that will sustainably fund mobile capital expenditure.

The broker has an Add rating and $9.12 target. Main risks relate to the capital intensity of the combined business.

Target price is $9.12 Current Price is $8.21 Difference: $0.91
If TPG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.71, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.9, implying annual growth of 43.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.8, implying annual growth of -19.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL  WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $20.96

Citi rates WPL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi has downgraded Woodside Petroleum to Neutral from Buy.

Impairment disclosures have led the broker to downgrade and the analysts fail to see a near-term catalyst, other than a possible reduction in bottlenecks at Scarborough.

Citi believes the market does not fully appreciate that Pluto LNG no longer enjoys its S-Shape inflection point at $60 oil. As a result, third quarter results may disappoint.

The rating is decreased to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to $22.33 from $26.08.

Target price is $22.33 Current Price is $20.96 Difference: $1.37
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.76, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 72.98 cents and EPS of 90.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 122.13 cents and EPS of 153.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.4, implying annual growth of 44.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

First half production was in line with expectations and revenue was slightly better than expected.

Credit Suisse notes material upside from growth at Scarborough/interconnector is likely and management cannot envisage Scarborough will not proceed.

Woodside is also positioned to emerge as a winner from the M&A shake up at North West Shelf.

The company has also reassured the market that LNG pricing is not a structural concern.

Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $25.24 from $27.16.

Target price is $25.24 Current Price is $20.96 Difference: $4.28
If WPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.76, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 43.12 cents and EPS of 53.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 68.90 cents and EPS of 86.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.4, implying annual growth of 44.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes LNG markets remain oversupplied and trims forward pricing. June quarter production was ahead of estimates but revenue below. The main issue has been weakness in LNG prices at core assets.

While taking account of the provisions and impairments, the broker remains attracted to the stock, given the valuation metrics and strategic options that are in Woodside's favour.

The interim result on August 13 is expected to be a catalyst. Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $24.35 from $25.00.

Target price is $24.35 Current Price is $20.96 Difference: $3.39
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.76, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 31.28 cents and EPS of 52.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 77.45 cents and EPS of 98.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.4, implying annual growth of 44.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates WPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Woodside Petroleum's June quarter was weak led by low LNG prices and lower revenues.

Morgan Stanley continues to assume long term oil prices to be US$45/bbl which creates a challenging outlook for the company's growth.

The Scarborough project needs oil to move to US$50/bbl and stay there for some time for it to become viable, calculates the broker. The LNG price outlook is the key factor, states the broker. 

Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-weight rating with the target price decreasing to $20 from $21.10. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $20.96 Difference: minus $0.96 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.76, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 87.88 cents and EPS of 110.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 68.51 cents and EPS of 84.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.4, implying annual growth of 44.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates WPL as Hold (3) -

Woodside Petroleum has flagged impairments at its upcoming results. Write-downs are expected to total -US$3.9bn. There is also a onerous contract provision of -US$447m against Corpus Christi.

Morgans expects falling earnings from lower energy prices will materially affect the dividend profile. The broker considers Woodside Petroleum will be unlikely to execute on all ambitions while maintaining a dividend.

Morgans lifts earnings forecasts after updating its model. Target is reduced to $22.70 from $22.90 and a Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $22.70 Current Price is $20.96 Difference: $1.74
If WPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.76, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 35.75 cents and EPS of 72.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 65.54 cents and EPS of 99.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.4, implying annual growth of 44.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates WPL as Buy (1) -

June quarter operations were strong, which Ord Minnett suggests has been "somewhat lost" because of weak realised prices and the asset impairments that were announced.

The broker believes management is committed to backfilling an expanded Pluto LNG facility yet joint venture negotiations remain key to proceeding in a timely manner.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and lowers the target to $25.70 from $27.00.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $25.70 Current Price is $20.96 Difference: $4.74
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.76, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 64.05 cents and EPS of 80.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 35.75 cents and EPS of 110.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.4, implying annual growth of 44.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates WPL as Buy (1) -

Revenue in the June quarter declined -29% sequentially and was below UBS estimates. The drop stemmed from lower realised LNG prices.

Woodside has also announced a -US$3.9bn impairment plus an onerous contract provision for Corpus Christi.

The broker notes the company is committed to realising its Burrup vision of Scarborough via Pluto T2 and Browse to backfill North West Shelf.

UBS maintains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $26 from $27.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $20.96 Difference: $5.04
If WPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.76, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 47.66 cents and EPS of 58.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 90.86 cents and EPS of 114.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.4, implying annual growth of 44.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Z1P  ZIP CO LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $6.57

Morgans rates Z1P as Add (1) -

Morgans found the June quarter performance robust, with transaction volumes, customers and merchants all growing 8-10% sequentially.

The broker likes the long-term growth profile and maintains an Add rating.

Bad debts are still tracking below the broker's conservative estimates. Target is raised to $7.20 from $7.00. Add maintained.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.57 Difference: $0.63
If Z1P meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.55, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 54.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 43.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates Z1P as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

The trading update looked strong, with total transaction volumes increasing by 62%. Second half revenue grew 88%. However, highlight the analysts, net bad debts increased to 2.24% at the end of the June quarter.

UBS now believes the risk/reward is unfavourable following the recent rally in the share price and downgrades to Sell from Neutral.

Target is raised to $5.70 from $5.60. The broker notes several short-term risks including uncertainty over the duration of the pandemic, growth in credit risk and the integration risk for Quadpay.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $6.57 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If Z1P meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.55, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 59.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 164.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AFG Australian Finance $1.61 Morgans 1.50 1.70 -11.76%
ALL Aristocrat Leisure $25.90 UBS 29.60 31.80 -6.92%
DCN Dacian Gold $0.31 Macquarie 0.30 0.43 -30.23%
GDG Generation Development Group $0.72 Morgans 0.83 0.77 7.79%
GMG Goodman Grp $15.55 UBS 17.00 16.00 6.25%
GOR Gold Road Resources $1.79 Macquarie 1.70 1.80 -5.56%
HAS Hastings Technology Metals $0.12 Ord Minnett 0.16 0.15 6.67%
LYC Lynas Corp $1.96 Ord Minnett 4.70 4.90 -4.08%
OGC Oceanagold $3.30 Macquarie 3.10 3.00 3.33%
ORA Orora $2.42 Credit Suisse 2.65 2.25 17.78%
ORG Origin Energy $5.74 Macquarie 6.59 6.56 0.46%
Morgans 5.95 6.28 -5.25%
UBS 7.40 7.55 -1.99%
PRU Perseus Mining $1.38 Macquarie 1.25 1.20 4.17%
QBE QBE Insurance $9.35 Morgan Stanley 11.60 12.00 -3.33%
QUB Qube Holdings $2.82 Ord Minnett 3.09 2.95 4.75%
SCG Scentre Group $2.13 UBS 2.25 1.53 47.06%
SHL Sonic Healthcare $31.21 Credit Suisse 33.50 32.50 3.08%
SXY Senex Energy $0.29 Morgans 0.43 0.46 -5.25%
Ord Minnett 0.35 0.34 2.94%
TPG TPG Telecom $8.40 Morgans 9.12 9.14 -0.22%
VCX Vicinity Centres $1.37 UBS 1.48 1.46 1.37%
WPL Woodside Petroleum $20.70 Citi 22.33 26.08 -14.38%
Credit Suisse 25.24 27.16 -7.07%
Macquarie 24.35 25.00 -2.60%
Morgan Stanley 20.00 21.10 -5.21%
Morgans 22.70 22.90 -0.87%
Ord Minnett 25.70 27.00 -4.81%
UBS 26.00 27.00 -3.70%
Z1P Zip Co $5.95 Morgans 7.20 7.00 2.86%
UBS 5.70 5.60 1.79%
Summaries
AFG Australian Finance Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.61
ALL Aristocrat Leisure Buy - UBS Overnight Price $26.24
APT Afterpay Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $68.16
CWY Cleanaway Waste Management Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.17
ELO Elmo Software Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $6.25
GDG Generation Development Group Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.72
GMG Goodman Grp Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $15.78
HAS Hastings Technology Metals Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.12
LYC Lynas Corp Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.96
ORA Orora Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.42
ORG Origin Energy Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.84
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.84
Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $5.84
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.84
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.84
QBE QBE Insurance Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $9.59
QUB Qube Holdings Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $2.82
Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.82
SHL Sonic Healthcare Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $31.38
SXL Southern Cross Media Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.17
SXY Senex Energy Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.26
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $0.26
TPG TPG Telecom Add - Morgans Overnight Price $8.21
WPL Woodside Petroleum Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $20.96
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $20.96
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $20.96
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $20.96
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $20.96
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $20.96
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $20.96
Z1P Zip Co Add - Morgans Overnight Price $6.57
Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $6.57
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

17

2. Accumulate

3

3. Hold

11

5. Sell

1

Thursday 16 July 2020

Access Broker Call Report Archives here

Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.