Australian Broker Call

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July 29, 2019

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
GUD - G.U.D. HOLDINGS Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
Downgrade to Sell from Buy UBS
KAR - KAROON GAS Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Macquarie
NHF - NIB HOLDINGS Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
RMD - RESMED Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
SKI - SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Credit Suisse
AMI  AURELIA METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $0.49

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes a weak June quarter report, with production of 22,900 ounces of gold around -22% below estimates. The company is guiding to reduced gold production in FY20, partially offset by higher base metals production.

Macquarie reduces estimates for earnings per share in FY19 by -16% and maintains an Outperform rating, lowering the target to $0.55 from $0.60.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.06
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.75.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.07.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCL  COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $10.47

Ord Minnett rates CCL as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett believes recent changes in the Australian beverages division may be showing signs of starting to deliver. The external environment and momentum have also improved in Indonesia.

The broker believes the stock has limited valuation support but remains attractive versus its peers. Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and increases the target to $10.00 from $8.50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $10.47 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If CCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.62, suggesting downside of -17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 52.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.7, implying annual growth of 34.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.0, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLQ  CLEAN TEQ HOLDINGS LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $0.44

Macquarie rates CLQ as No Rating (-1) -

The company has received a $14.6m tax refund under the research and development tax incentive scheme for FY18 subsequent to the completion of the June quarter. The company has appointed Fluor as the project management contractor for the Sunrise project.

The primary focus of the quarter was progressing the FEED, which is 43% complete. Macquarie is restricted on rating and target at present.

Current Price is $0.44. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.95.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 44.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG  FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $8.14

Morgans rates FMG as Reduce (5) -

Morgans believes there is growing likelihood the iron ore rally will moderate. The top end of consensus expectations makes little sense to the broker.

Still, resilient demand could mean supply tightness drags into FY20, particularly if the Pilbara majors underperform on volumes. Regardless, the broker envisages prices are skewed to the downside.

As the stock is trading at a sizeable premium to the target, raised to $6.19 from $6.15, Morgans maintains a Reduce rating.

Target price is $6.19 Current Price is $8.14 Difference: minus $1.95 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.41, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 96.87 cents and EPS of 117.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 15.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.7.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 58.96 cents and EPS of 119.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 190.5, implying annual growth of 34.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 17.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GUD  G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Household & Personal Products

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Overnight Price: $9.72

Citi rates GUD as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi remains cautious, in light of the FY19 results, lowering estimates for FY20-21 by -16-19%. The broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy because of the decline in momentum in the second half.

The company has noted soft demand from re-sellers and also increased competition in filters. Prices remain flat at Ryco. Target is reduced to $11.02 from $14.91.

Target price is $11.02 Current Price is $9.72 Difference: $1.3
If GUD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.66, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 67.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 72.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.3, implying annual growth of 6.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates GUD as Neutral (3) -

Earnings in FY19 trailed Credit Suisse estimates. Credit Suisse envisages ongoing risks to the outlook amid competition and further pressure from the re-seller channel in a soft market.

The broker updates forecasts which reveal a -3% decline in estimates for earnings per share in FY20 and a -10% reduction in the dividend.

The broker still envisages a -$4m draw down in debt is required to fund the dividend. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $10.30 from $12.00.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $9.72 Difference: $0.58
If GUD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.66, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 50.64 cents and EPS of 67.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 55.69 cents and EPS of 74.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.3, implying annual growth of 6.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates GUD as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

FY19 results were softer than expected. Valuation is undemanding, in Macquarie's view, yet the automotive division was impacted by several problems that accelerated in the second half and may persist in the near term.

The broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform, having been disappointed organic growth was not sustained above 5% or boosted by bolt-on acquisitions. Target is reduced to $10.50 from $14.50.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.72 Difference: $0.78
If GUD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.66, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 69.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 73.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.3, implying annual growth of 6.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates GUD as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett was disappointed with the FY19 results as well as the outlook. Management has highlighted a number of issues such as weaker economic conditions, increased competition and a lack of sell-through from the catalogue launch.

The broker maintains an Accumulate rating and trims the target to $12.00 from $12.70. Having re-based market expectations, Ord Minnett believes the risk/reward balance remains favourable over the medium term.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.72 Difference: $2.28
If GUD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.66, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.3, implying annual growth of 6.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates GUD as Downgrade to Sell from Buy (5) -

FY19 results were in line with expectations. UBS was disappointed with the Narva catalogue launch, with industry feedback suggesting weaker sales.

The company faces substantial FX headwinds over FY20, and the broker points out prices have not increased for the largest brand Ryco. Hence, it could be difficult to grow earnings (EBIT) in FY20.

UBS downgrades to Sell from Buy and lowers the target to $9.50 from $12.30.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $9.72 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If GUD meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.66, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.3, implying annual growth of 6.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR  KAROON GAS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $1.71

Macquarie rates KAR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

The company will acquire the Bauna oilfield for US$665m, becoming the fourth largest liquids producer on the ASX. Macquarie suggests a US$100-120m capital raising may be required to fund the acquisition shortfall and strengthen the balance sheet.

The broker assesses the company's three-year wait to obtain the field appears to have paid off. Seller Petrobras is undergoing an extensive divestment program to reduce debt.

Macquarie believes the field is more suited to a company such as Karoon Gas, which has the ability to focus on lifting production volumes. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $3.00 from $1.15.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $1.29
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.98.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.83.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN  MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore

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Overnight Price: $16.20

Macquarie rates MIN as No Rating (-1) -

The company has received unconditional approval for the sale of 50% of Wodgina to Albemarle, from Chinese authorities. The deal remains subject to regulatory approvals from Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board and consent from third parties with interest in the tenements.

Macquarie downgrades FY19 earnings estimates by -17% after incorporating lower iron ore shipment volumes and increasing cash cost assumptions. The broker is advising hence is currently restricted from making a recomendation.

Current Price is $16.20. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $20.00, suggesting upside of 23.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 111.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.6, implying annual growth of -28.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 145.00 cents and EPS of 219.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 232.9, implying annual growth of 124.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 90.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Iron ore shipments in the June quarter were below estimates and the ramp up at Wodgina is delayed, with first ore expected in around 3-4 months, although Morgan Stanley believes the impact on earnings should be limited.

The broker remains positive on fundamentals and maintains an Overweight rating and $19.50 target. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $16.20 Difference: $3.3
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.00, suggesting upside of 23.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 31.50 cents and EPS of 106.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.6, implying annual growth of -28.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 39.10 cents and EPS of 196.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 232.9, implying annual growth of 124.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 90.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MPL  MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $3.63

Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes structural issues continue to overhang the health sector, notwithstanding the federal election outcome as, in a community-based model with falling participation and an ageing pool of participants, claims per policy will experience upward pressure.

In the face of a soft consumer backdrop and continuing downgrades, the broker believes the market is likely to be too bullish on revenue and policyholder growth.

Despite this, health insurers continue to over earn, with returns above 22% considered unusually high in a regulated industry with government approved pricing.

The broker maintains an Underweight rating and raises the target to $2.60 from $2.40. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: minus $1.03 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting downside of -19.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.70 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of -1.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.20 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of -6.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHF  NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $8.18

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes structural issues continue to overhang the health sector, notwithstanding the federal election outcome as, in a community-based model with falling participation and an ageing pool of participants, claims per policy will experience upward pressure.

In the face of a soft consumer backdrop and continuing downgrades, the broker believes the market is likely to be too bullish on revenue and policyholder growth. Despite this, health insurers continue to over earn, with returns above 22% considered unusually high in a regulated industry with government approved pricing.

Rating is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight. Target is raised to $6.00 from $5.30. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $8.18 Difference: minus $2.18 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.14, suggesting downside of -24.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.40 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 25.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.0, implying annual growth of 1.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OGC  OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $3.98

Citi rates OGC as Neutral (3) -

Citi found the June quarter positive, as the Haile mine is showing signs of a turnaround and NZ operations were reliable. Didipio is closed by protests, although the broker suspects this may change in the second half.

The company sought a provincial court injunction against the physical restraint of their operations but this has been denied so the Court of Appeals will now be approached.

Citi maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $4.45 from $4.90.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.47
If OGC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.21 cents and EPS of 9.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.21 cents and EPS of 50.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of 74.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates OGC as Neutral (3) -

Mining was suspended in the June quarter at Didipio as the blockage of the mine site access road continued. Second-half production is subject to the timing of the resumption of underground mining.

The company produced 129,300 ounces in the quarter, a little ahead of Credit Suisse estimates. The broker notes the court has denied the company's petition at the hearing on July 12 which now adds risk to second-half guidance.

Credit Suisse believes, in the event of a protracted delay to the re-opening of the access road, consumable depletion will occur before liquidity becomes a factor.

Neutral rating and $4.25 target maintained.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.27
If OGC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.21 cents and EPS of 14.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.62 cents and EPS of 19.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of 74.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates OGC as Outperform (1) -

June quarter results were broadly in line with Macquarie's expectations although costs were notably elevated. There was a marked improvement at Haile but Didipio was suspended because of the ongoing dispute with local government authorities.

The broker considers uncertainty on the outlook for Didipio will remain for some time while Haile and Waihi should drive increased production and margin.

Outperform maintained. Target unchanged at $5.00.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $1.02
If OGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 1.40 cents and EPS of 21.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 1.40 cents and EPS of 18.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of 74.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates OGC as Neutral (3) -

UBS found the cost performance in the June quarter worse than forecast, with all-in sustainable costs up 27%. Some of this was from heavy pre-stripping, so there will be a benefit in the future from greater access to ore and lower stripping costs.

The broker notes OceanaGold is heavily leveraged to the gold price and the share price has not rallied with the sector because of recent operating and regulatory issues, in particular Didipio in the Philippines.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.40 from $4.75.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.42
If OGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 1.40 cents and EPS of 18.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 5.62 cents and EPS of 23.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of 74.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO  RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks

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Overnight Price: $98.94

Citi rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Citi adjusts forecasts ahead of the first half result. The broker expects the iron ore division to report operating earnings (EBITDA) of US$7.5bn. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $110 from $114.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $98.94 Difference: $11.06
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $103.16, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 623.33 cents and EPS of 1026.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1058.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 660.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 433.81 cents and EPS of 1040.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 972.4, implying annual growth of -8.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 570.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMD  RESMED INC

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $18.73

Citi rates RMD as Neutral (3) -

FY19 results were ahead of Citi's estimates and FY20-21 forecasts are increased by 7-8%. The broker considers the business excellent, albeit fairly valued and, hence, maintains a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $19.00 from $17.75.

ResMed has tentatively agreed with the US government to resolve on a civil basis the Department of Justice investigation for payment of US$39.5m relating to issues around re-supply. Citi believes the company took appropriate measures several years ago, noting ResMed is confident in its numbers.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $18.73 Difference: $0.27
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.95, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 23.02 cents and EPS of 56.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.82 cents and EPS of 64.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.4, implying annual growth of 12.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates RMD as Outperform (1) -

The company reported a strong fourth quarter result, with underlying earnings (EBIT) above Credit Suisse estimates. Mask growth was strong while US device growth was 7% with the continued uptake of the AirSense 10.

Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $20.10 from $18.45. The broker believes ResMed benefits from having the broadest product portfolio and having launched three new masks in the past 12 months.

Target price is $20.10 Current Price is $18.73 Difference: $1.37
If RMD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.95, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.18 cents and EPS of 54.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.31 cents and EPS of 62.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.4, implying annual growth of 12.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates RMD as Underperform (5) -

Fourth quarter net profit was ahead of Macquarie's expectations. The broker believes its forecasts capture the recent positive trends while the risk/reward profile is skewed to the downside at current levels.

The broker considers the current share price ascribes limited medium-term risk in relation to reimbursement changes or the longer-term impact of competing technologies. Underperform maintained. Target is raised to $15.35 from $15.00.

Target price is $15.35 Current Price is $18.73 Difference: minus $3.38 (current price is over target).
If RMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.95, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.32 cents and EPS of 53.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.01 cents and EPS of 62.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.4, implying annual growth of 12.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley is increasingly convinced the company's connected-care strategy will drive market share gains and higher rates of re-supply sales. FY19 results were ahead of expectations.

The main headwinds in the forecast period are considered to be low device growth, outside of the Americas, as periods that benefited from favourable reimbursement changes are cycled. There is also likely to be dilution to earnings per share from the Verily joint venture and Propeller Health acquisition.

Overweight rating and target is raised to $17.90 from $17.70. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $18.73 Difference: minus $0.83 (current price is over target).
If RMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.95, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.90 cents and EPS of 56.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 21.90 cents and EPS of 62.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.4, implying annual growth of 12.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates RMD as Hold (3) -

FY19 results were ahead of Ord Minnett's estimates. The core sleep franchise performed strongly and extended its leading position, the broker observes.

Robust market conditions are expected to continue into FY20, supporting earnings growth of around 10%, although the broker suggests this is largely captured in the share price.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating. Target is raised to $18.00 from $16.50, because of a change in the risk-free rate assumption to better reflect the global rate environment.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $18.73 Difference: minus $0.73 (current price is over target).
If RMD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.95, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.3.

Forecast for FY21:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.4, implying annual growth of 12.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates RMD as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral. Following the results, which were slightly ahead of expectations, the broker updates assumptions which underpin upgrades of 5-8% over the forecast period.

Mask growth stood out in the Americas, up 16%, and US re-supply growth is also showing no signs of slowing. Target is raised to US$140 from US$122.

Current Price is $18.73. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $17.95, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.18 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.3.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 23.31 cents and EPS of 64.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.4, implying annual growth of 12.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKI  SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $2.35

Credit Suisse rates SKI as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Credit Suisse is upgrading to Neutral from Underperform as the stock is trading in line with valuation. Relative underperformance is rendering Spark Infrastructure undervalued based on historical correlation of valuation multiples. Target is raised to $2.30 from $2.10.

Still, the broker cautions that forecast cash flows put significant doubt on the company's ability to grow dividends and an extension of a discounted dividend reinvestment plan may be required beyond what is needed to fund the Bomen equity.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If SKI meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 5.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.1.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.4, implying annual growth of -4.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN  SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $13.59

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett updates its model to incorporate a revised investment return benchmark for fixed income. The changes result in a -12% reduction in estimates for FY19 and minor variations to the outer years.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $14.40 from $14.61.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $13.59 Difference: $0.81
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.83, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 67.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.1, implying annual growth of -7.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.0, implying annual growth of 18.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE  TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $17.70

Credit Suisse rates TWE as Outperform (1) -

US retail sales data reveals the company has markedly improved sales in July. The improvement came with a strong launch of Beringer Bros. Credit Suisse is impressed with Treasury Wines' execution under the new distribution model.

Still, the broker concedes it is early days as online reviews, while positive, have not been resoundingly so, and the initial volume purchased was 20% of the size of 19 Crimes.

Outperform and $19.85 target retained.

Target price is $19.85 Current Price is $17.70 Difference: $2.15
If TWE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.06, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 61.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.3, implying annual growth of 23.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 72.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.5, implying annual growth of 19.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Z1P  ZIP CO LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit

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Overnight Price: $3.46

Ord Minnett rates Z1P as Accumulate (2) -

The company performed strongly in the June quarter, beating Ord Minnett's expectations. Underlying sales and the amount of bad debts were a source of positive surprise.

The broker expects a strategic update at the August results, which should assist in setting out the trajectory of the business. Accumulate rating maintained. Target is raised to $3.70 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.24
If Z1P meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 108.13.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1153.33.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AMI AURELIA METALS Macquarie 0.55 0.60 -8.33%
APT AFTERPAY TOUCH Ord Minnett 32.00 32.20 -0.62%
AST AUSNET SERVICES Credit Suisse 1.80 1.60 12.50%
CCL COCA-COLA AMATIL Ord Minnett 10.00 8.50 17.65%
CLQ CLEAN TEQ HOLDINGS Macquarie N/A 0.90 -100.00%
FMG FORTESCUE Morgans 6.19 6.15 0.65%
GUD G.U.D. HOLDINGS Citi 11.02 14.91 -26.09%
Credit Suisse 10.30 12.00 -14.17%
Macquarie 10.50 14.50 -27.59%
Ord Minnett 12.00 12.70 -5.51%
UBS 9.50 12.30 -22.76%
KAR KAROON GAS Macquarie 3.00 1.15 160.87%
MPL MEDIBANK PRIVATE Morgan Stanley 2.60 2.40 8.33%
NHF NIB HOLDINGS Morgan Stanley 6.00 5.30 13.21%
OGC OCEANAGOLD Citi 4.45 4.90 -9.18%
UBS 4.40 4.50 -2.22%
RIO RIO TINTO Citi 110.00 114.00 -3.51%
RMD RESMED Citi 19.00 17.75 7.04%
Credit Suisse 20.10 18.45 8.94%
Macquarie 15.35 15.00 2.33%
Morgan Stanley 17.90 17.00 5.29%
Ord Minnett 18.00 16.50 9.09%
SKI SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE Credit Suisse 2.30 2.10 9.52%
SUN SUNCORP Ord Minnett 14.40 13.82 4.20%
Z1P ZIP CO Ord Minnett 3.70 3.30 12.12%
Summaries
AMI AURELIA METALS Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.49
CCL COCA-COLA AMATIL Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $10.47
CLQ CLEAN TEQ HOLDINGS No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.44
FMG FORTESCUE Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $8.14
GUD G.U.D. HOLDINGS Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - Citi Overnight Price $9.72
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $9.72
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $9.72
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $9.72
Downgrade to Sell from Buy - UBS Overnight Price $9.72
KAR KAROON GAS Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.71
MIN MINERAL RESOURCES No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $16.20
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $16.20
MPL MEDIBANK PRIVATE Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.63
NHF NIB HOLDINGS Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $8.18
OGC OCEANAGOLD Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $3.98
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.98
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.98
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $3.98
RIO RIO TINTO Buy - Citi Overnight Price $98.94
RMD RESMED Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $18.73
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $18.73
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $18.73
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $18.73
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $18.73
Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $18.73
SKI SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.35
SUN SUNCORP Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $13.59
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $17.70
Z1P ZIP CO Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.46
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

9

2. Accumulate

2

3. Hold

11

5. Sell

5

Monday 29 July 2019

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