Australian Broker Call

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September 21, 2021

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
AST - AusNet Services Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight Morgan Stanley
BBN - Baby Bunting Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
EVT - Event Hospitality & Entertainment Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
ANZ  AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $27.14

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Equal-weight (3) -

ANZ Bank CSG briefing had a particular focus on people, sustainable finance and climate risk, Morgan Stanley notes. The bank has outlined its approach to risk management noting the emerging risks include biodiversity, cyber scamming and economic disparity.

ANZ Bank also highlighted its concern about rising household debt. Morgan Stanley expects macro prudential measures will be introduced in response to the wide gap between credit growth and income growth, although notes the CEO's commentary that there is too much outsourcing of problems to regulators.

The Equal-weight rating and $28 target are maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $27.14 Difference: $0.86
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.60, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 140.00 cents and EPS of 199.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.6, implying annual growth of 62.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 141.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 140.00 cents and EPS of 199.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 216.0, implying annual growth of 5.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 146.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AOF  AUSTRALIAN UNITY OFFICE FUND

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.48

Ord Minnett rates AOF as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes the merger ratio (for the Australian Unity Office Fund and the Australian Unity Diversified Property Fund) implies -4% net tangible assets dilution for existing unitholders. 

The two funds are in advanced discussions to merge and create the Australian Unity Property Fund and the analyst assumes a 50% probability of the transaction completing. Ord Minnett increases its target to $2.46 from $2.41 and maintains its Hold rating.

Despite the dilution, the analyst can see positives including potential for increased liquidity and ASX300 inclusion. Additionally, there would be diversification and a de-risked lease expiry profile in the broker's view.

Target price is $2.46 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If AOF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.20 cents and EPS of 18.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.48.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.80 cents and EPS of 13.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.93.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AST  AUSNET SERVICES LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $2.36

Morgan Stanley rates AST as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

The potential for corporate activity, with the company receiving an offer from Brookfield, highlights for Morgan Stanley the cost of capital differential between listed and unlisted investors.

This drives the broker to upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight. Target is raised to $2.41 from $1.77.

Should the proposed transactions proceed, the de-listing of both AusNet Services and Spark Infrastructure ((SKI)), Morgan Stanley points out, will mean there is no pure regulated utility left on the ASX.

The main concern is that the Australian Energy Regulator may perceive the premium in the proposed transactions a sign that regulated allowances are overly generous and seek to reduce them accordingly, suggests the analyst. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $2.41 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.05
If AST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.03, suggesting downside of -21.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of -11.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of 2.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates AST as Hold (3) -

AusNet Services has received an indicative takeover offer from Brookfield Asset Management at $2.50 per share all-cash. The Board intends to recommend the offer in the absence of a superior proposal and subject to an independent expert’s report.

Morgans notes the bid price is within the 20%-30% takeover premium currently expected by Australian investors. The broker sets its target price to match the bid price at $2.50, a lift from $1.83. The Hold rating is unchanged.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.14
If AST meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.03, suggesting downside of -21.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of -11.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of 2.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates AST as Hold (3) -

AusNet Services has received an unsolicited and conditional cash proposal from Canadian firm Brookfield Asset Management at $2.50 per share. Ord Minnett does not expect interlopers as the offer price is seen as full.

The analyst highlights a potential blocking stake as Singapore Power and State Grid of China own 50% of the shares outstanding. It's thought the shares will trade at a slight discount to the offer price. The broker retains its Hold rating and $1.75 price target.

Ord Minnett doesn't believe Brookfield will encounter any issues with FIRB or other regulatory approvals.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: minus $0.61 (current price is over target).
If AST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.03, suggesting downside of -21.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of -11.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of 2.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BBN  BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $5.27

Citi rates BBN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi upgrades its rating for Baby Bunting Group to Buy from Neutral with the risk/reward tradeoff seen as more favourable following the -12% share price decline since the FY21 result. The target price rises to $5.98 from $5.90 on higher market multiples.

The analyst feels the group is well placed to report a relatively stronger AGM trading update compared to most listed retail peers, given the non-discretionary nature of its products.

Ord Minnett forecasts gross margins to expand by 68bps in FY22. This is driven by a forecast increased share of higher margin private label and exclusive product sales, and supply chain efficiencies from the new national distribution centre in Melbourne.

Target price is $5.98 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $0.71
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.34, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.20 cents and EPS of 23.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 65.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.60 cents and EPS of 29.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of 20.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL  BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap

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Overnight Price: $21.85

UBS rates BSL as Buy (1) -

While there was no first half guidance at the climate strategy day, UBS increases its first half earnings (EBIT) forecast to $2.1bn (versus $1.8-2bn guidance) on the strength in US spreads and the Australian dollar tailwind. The target lifts to $28.60 from $28.20.

US mini-mill spreads are now US$1,291/t versus company guidance of US$1,175 and the analyst now assumes a US$1,361/t US spread in 1H22.

Target price is $28.60 Current Price is $21.85 Difference: $6.75
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.12, suggesting upside of 35.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 497.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 515.1, implying annual growth of 117.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.2.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 247.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 307.6, implying annual growth of -40.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLW  CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT

REITs

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Overnight Price: $5.12

Citi rates CLW as Buy (1) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT has entered into a scheme to acquire ALE Property Group ((LEP)) for -$1.68bn in a 50/50 partnership with Hostplus, in a transaction that Citi assesses as relatively neutral. The target price falls to $5.59 from $5.68.

The analyst notes the REIT and independent valuers see material (around 37%) upside to in-place rents, potentially lifting the yield to circa 4.7% when rents are reset to market (predominantly in 2028). 

Consideration will be around 72% scrip/28% debt, with marginal debt costs of less than -2%. This indicates to the broker the transaction is marginally dilutive (around -3% p.a.) based on current income, albeit with scope for substantial upside in 2028 and beyond.

Separately, the REIT will acquire two industrial assets valued at $67m. The Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $5.59 Current Price is $5.12 Difference: $0.47
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.34, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 31.10 cents and EPS of 31.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of -72.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 31.90 cents and EPS of 31.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates CLW as No Rating (-1) -

Charter Hall Long Wale REIT and a Charter Hall ((CHC)) managed trust have a agreement to acquire ALE Property ((LEP)) in a 50-50 partnership.

Charter Hall LW believes this is a rare opportunity to acquire a large under-mentored portfolio of 78 hospitality/retail assets. The A-REIT already has an exposure to hotels leased to Endeavour Group ((EDV)).

ALE Property security holders will receive $3.673 cash and 0.408 Charter Hall Long Wale REIT securities for each security they hold.

Macquarie is unable to provide a rating or target at present.

Current Price is $5.12. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.34, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.70 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of -72.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 31.70 cents and EPS of 32.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT, in a 50/50 partnership with Hostplus, has entered into a scheme to acquire ALE Property Group ((LEP)) for -$1.68bn, reflecting a premium to net tangible assets of 53%.

UBS estimates -4% dilution (FY basis, previous guidance included a buffer for dilutive deals), 7.5 years to market rent reviews and upside from extending leases and redevelopments/densification of sites. The analyst doesn't include the transaction in forecasts just yet.

The analyst feels that with gearing elevated, future acquisitions will likely require an equity raise and earnings accretion is thought to be challenging for sought-after quality long WALE assets. The target price of $5.30 and Neutral rating are unchanged.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.12 Difference: $0.18
If CLW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.34, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 31.10 cents and EPS of 31.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of -72.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 31.70 cents and EPS of 31.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 2.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVT  EVENT HOSPITALITY & ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism

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Overnight Price: $14.45

Citi rates EVT as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi sees the company as materially undervalued and raises its rating to Buy from Neutral and lifts the target to $17.70 from $13.45. This is predicated on likely strong pent-up demand after lockdowns and lesser structural concerns surrounding cinemas than initially thought. 

Additionally, there has been a successful property divestment program and a material cost-out program, explains the analyst.

A $2.1bn property portfolio (worth $12.76 per share) implies to the broker that investors are paying circa 4x FY23 earnings for the operating business.

Target price is $17.70 Current Price is $14.45 Difference: $3.25
If EVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of minus 24.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 58.27.

Forecast for FY23:

Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.46.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HPI  HOTEL PROPERTY INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $3.42

Morgans rates HPI as Add (1) -

To partially fund two acquisitions, Hotel Property Investments has completed an underwritten institutional placement raising $50m at $3.40 and has launched a share purchase plan to raise up to $10m.

The company will pay -$38.8m to its major tenant QVC for 249 gaming licences. FY22 DPS guidance of 20.5c remains unchanged. After allowing for the above changes, Morgans adjusts its target price to $3.56 from $3.58 and retains its Add rating.

Target price is $3.56 Current Price is $3.42 Difference: $0.14
If HPI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.50 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.36.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.60 cents and EPS of 21.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.06.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPL  INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $2.85

Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

A number of European ammonia plants are being closed because of high natural gas costs. Macquarie notes Western Europe merchant ammonia trade is about 8% of the global traded ammonia market.

Hence, the global market is likely to tighten further and support nitrogen prices.

This provides a favourable spread for low-cost US producers such as Incitec Pivot. The broker also notes spot fertiliser prices are above its FY22 forecast and provide good momentum for the year ahead. Outperform rating maintained. Target is steady at $3.15.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.3
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.40 cents and EPS of 15.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of 131.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.90 cents and EPS of 21.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of 33.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes fertiliser prices have increased to the highest level in more than five years and, historically, the correlation with the Incitec Pivot share price has been high.

Hence, the broker expects further upside is likely for the share price. Target is $3.55. Overweight maintained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.7
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of 131.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of 33.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR  KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil

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Overnight Price: $1.37

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Production guidance for FY22 is better than Macquarie expected with 4.2-4.6mmbbl expected from Bauna. Karoon Energy has a US$160m facility to support the Santos Basin expansion and fund payments to Petrobras.

Macquarie highlights the strong cash flow at spot oil prices and maintains an Outperform rating. Target is raised to $1.65 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.28
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 201.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Overweight (1) -

FY21 results were slightly below Morgan Stanley's estimates. The company has guided to higher unit production costs in FY22 although the broker suspects this is an interim measure and costs will fall as production rises from FY23.

The increase in costs partially stems from maintenance expenses to address corrosion on FPSO piping. The broker was encouraged by the commentary on Neon and Goia and remains confident the business is gradually delivering on its strategy.

Overweight maintained. Attractive industry view. Target is $1.85.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.48
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 201.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a steady FY21 result, with underlying profit coming in just ahead of consensus forecasts. Impressive FY22 production guidance of 4.2-4.6mmbbl eclipsed the broker's estimate of 4.0mmbbl though FY22 unit opex guidance was above estimates.

The analyst sees potential acquisition opportunities that would complement the company’s Bauna operations. Morgans lowers its target price to $1.90 from $2 and retains its Add rating.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.53
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 201.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LEP  ALE PROPERTY GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $5.68

Macquarie rates LEP as No Rating (-1) -

A consortium of Charter Hall ((CHC)) associates will acquire ALE Property with implied pricing of $5.88 a share. In the absence of a superior proposal directors have recommended the deal, with security holders able to receive either all scrip or all cash or a mix of both.

Macquarie notes the acquisition represents a current market rental yield of 3.5%. The broker is unable to provide a rating or target at present.

Current Price is $5.68. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 14.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.90.

Forecast for FY23:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.60 cents and EPS of 15.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.88.

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NIC  NICKEL MINES LIMITED

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $1.00

Macquarie rates NIC as Neutral (3) -

The Indonesian government has signalled the possibility of an export tax on less than 70% contained nickel products. Approximately 50% of the company's current production is sold domestically to the adjacent stainless steel mill.

Nickel Mines is also assessing potential to convert 50% of its capacity in nickel pig iron to nickel matte, which would avoid the export tax. Macquarie believes this is a key risk and could have material impact on earnings forecasts and valuation.

Yet, nickel pig iron prices are currently trading at 90% of LME nickel prices so there is also near-term upside risk, the broker adds. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $1.10 from $1.15.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.1
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.25, suggesting upside of 31.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.52 cents and EPS of 8.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.19 cents and EPS of 7.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of -16.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $4.30

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

UBS lifts its Brent oil price forecast for 2021 to US$67.5/bbl from US$65.8/bbl, and for 2022 to US$68.5/bbl from US$62/bbl. This reflects a view by the broker of the market’s appetite to price in the recovery rather than a changed view on the physical market.

The analyst explains this translates to EPS upgrades of 4-21% across the sector though only a 1-2% increase in valuations, as UBS's long-term oil price outlook is unchanged.

The broker's second most preferred pick in the sector is Origin Energy, due to solid oil/LNG prices and limited growth capex supporting strong cash distributions from APLNG. It's thought rising east coast gas prices and electricity prices can also provide tailwinds. 

UBS increases its price target to $5.15 from $5.10 and retains its Buy rating.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $0.85
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.91, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Forecast for FY23:

UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 25.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of 44.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OSH  OIL SEARCH LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $3.72

UBS rates OSH as Buy (1) -

UBS lifts its Brent oil price forecast for 2021 to US$67.5/bbl from US$65.8/bbl, and for 2022 to US$68.5/bbl from US$62/bbl. This reflects a view by the broker of the market’s appetite to price in the recovery rather than a changed view on the physical market.

The analyst explains this translates to EPS upgrades of 4-21% across the sector though only a 1-2% increase in valuations, as UBS's long-term oil price outlook is unchanged.

UBS retains its Buy rating and lifts its price target for Oil Search to $4.85 from $4.80. The company is the broker's least preferred in the sector due to the risk of a de-rating if the proposed merger with Santos ((STO)) doesn't proceed.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $1.13
If OSH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.38 cents and EPS of 25.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.97 cents and EPS of 33.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of 27.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO  SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $6.12

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

UBS lifts its Brent oil price forecast for 2021 to US$67.5/bbl from US$65.8/bbl, and for 2022 to US$68.5/bbl from US$62/bbl. This reflects a view by the broker of the market’s appetite to price in the recovery rather than a changed view on the physical market.

The analyst explains this translates to EPS upgrades of 4-21% across the sector though only a 1-2% increase in valuations, as UBS's long-term oil price outlook is unchanged.

Santos remains the broker's preferred exposure across the sector as it is trading with the lowest multiples and implied oil price. It is also considered to have near-term growth catalysts with the final investment decision for Moomba CCS expected by the end of 2021.

The price target rises to $8.65 from $8.45 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $6.12 Difference: $2.53
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.04, suggesting upside of 30.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 15.30 cents and EPS of 53.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.63 cents and EPS of 71.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.0, implying annual growth of 25.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYD  SYDNEY AIRPORT

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $8.18

Ord Minnett rates SYD as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes traffic numbers were slightly weaker in August than the previous month, as traffic was severely affected by the NSW lockdown, and continued border restrictions for both domestic and international travel.

Separately, the analyst regards the proposed acquisition at $8.75 a share by the IFM-led consortium as fair. Management has granted due diligence to the consortium. The broker retains its Hold rating and $8.75 target price.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $8.18 Difference: $0.57
If SYD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.60, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 136.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.90 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 163.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 211.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCL  TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $14.18

Ord Minnett rates TCL as Buy (1) -

Transurban Group will fund its -$5.6bn share of the acquisition cost for the 49% stake in WestConnex via a 1-for-9 entitlement offer at $13 to raise $4.2bn, with the balance from existing cash.

The transaction is considered positive by Ord Minnett, given the group's expertise, intimate knowledge and control of the asset. The target price rises to $16.20 from $15.50 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

The analyst notes the acquisition is -6% free cash flow (FCF) dilutive in FY22 (excluding capital releases). However, management believes as the asset ramp-up occurs, and with an incremental $600m in capital releases available, FCF accretion for the transaction is possible.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $14.18 Difference: $2.02
If TCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.75, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 36.50 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1418.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 137.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 48.40 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 109.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.7, implying annual growth of 120.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL  WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $20.58

Macquarie rates WPL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses the tightness in the European gas market is evidence of the importance of LNG as a balancing fuel during the energy transition.

While there is further upside to spot LNG prices as the northern heating season commences, the broker understands Woodside Petroleum's exposure is limited to 10-15% and it cannot materially lift output.

The broker expects a surge in final investment decisions on LNG projects in 2021/22, including Scarborough, and believes the acquisition of the BHP Group ((BHP)) petroleum division will be transformational.

Outperform rating and $27.10 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $27.10 Current Price is $20.58 Difference: $6.52
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.01, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 139.67 cents and EPS of 217.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 167.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 103.75 cents and EPS of 173.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.2, implying annual growth of 8.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 130.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates WPL as Buy (1) -

UBS lifts its Brent oil price forecast for 2021 to US$67.5/bbl from US$65.8/bbl, and for 2022 to US$68.5/bbl from US$62/bbl. This reflects a view by the broker of the market’s appetite to price in the recovery rather than a changed view on the physical market.

The analyst explains this translates to EPS upgrades of 4-21% across the sector though only a 1-2% increase in valuations, as UBS's long-term oil price outlook is unchanged.

For Woodside Petroleum, higher earnings in FY23 reflect higher contracted LNG prices which are typically based on three-month lag to oil prices. The price target rises to $25.50 from $25 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $20.58 Difference: $4.92
If WPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.01, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 152.43 cents and EPS of 146.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 167.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 208.17 cents and EPS of 171.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.2, implying annual growth of 8.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 130.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
AOF Australian Unity Office Fund $2.39 Ord Minnett 2.46 2.41 2.07%
AST AusNet Services $2.59 Morgan Stanley 2.41 1.88 28.19%
Morgans 2.50 1.83 36.61%
BBN Baby Bunting $5.50 Citi 5.98 5.90 1.36%
BSL BlueScope Steel $21.48 UBS 28.60 28.20 1.42%
CLW Charter Hall Long WALE REIT $5.04 Citi 5.59 5.68 -1.58%
Macquarie N/A 5.21 -100.00%
EVT Event Hospitality & Entertainment $14.98 Citi 17.70 12.65 39.92%
HPI Hotel Property Investments $3.44 Morgans 3.56 3.52 1.14%
KAR Karoon Energy $1.39 Macquarie 1.65 1.50 10.00%
Morgans 1.90 2.00 -5.00%
LEP ALE Property $5.64 Macquarie N/A 4.78 -100.00%
NIC Nickel Mines $0.95 Macquarie 1.10 1.15 -4.35%
ORG Origin Energy $4.37 UBS 5.15 5.10 0.98%
OSH Oil Search $3.76 UBS 4.85 4.80 1.04%
STO Santos $6.16 UBS 8.65 8.45 2.37%
TCL Transurban Group $14.18 Ord Minnett 16.20 15.50 4.52%
WPL Woodside Petroleum $20.95 Macquarie 27.10 27.10 0.00%
UBS 25.50 25.00 2.00%
Summaries
ANZ ANZ Bank Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $27.14
AOF Australian Unity Office Fund Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.48
AST AusNet Services Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.36
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $2.36
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.36
BBN Baby Bunting Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $5.27
BSL BlueScope Steel Buy - UBS Overnight Price $21.85
CLW Charter Hall Long WALE REIT Buy - Citi Overnight Price $5.12
No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.12
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $5.12
EVT Event Hospitality & Entertainment Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $14.45
HPI Hotel Property Investments Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.42
IPL Incitec Pivot Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.85
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.85
KAR Karoon Energy Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.37
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $1.37
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $1.37
LEP ALE Property No Rating - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.68
NIC Nickel Mines Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.00
ORG Origin Energy Buy - UBS Overnight Price $4.30
OSH Oil Search Buy - UBS Overnight Price $3.72
STO Santos Buy - UBS Overnight Price $6.12
SYD Sydney Airport Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $8.18
TCL Transurban Group Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $14.18
WPL Woodside Petroleum Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $20.58
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $20.58
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

16

3. Hold

8

Tuesday 21 September 2021

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.